SportsRatings

We just published the first-of-the-season unbiased power rating, meaning there are no pre-season biases in it: it uses ONLY this year's games to make its ratings. And somewhat surprisingly, just like our Bayesian-updated pre-season rankings (ratings based on pre-season ratings, but updated with early season results), Notre Dame ranks as the #1 team in the nation. This is a bit surprising, as the Irish have been good but seemingly not great. I mean, they've done well, and have done nothing to drop them from their lofty pre-season heights (where they began at #2 actually). But I really didn't expect that what they've done so far would put them on top of an unbiased ranking. SportsRatings All-Division Power Rating after games of 9/19/2026:   #   Team                         rec   Rating Offense[rnk]   Defense[rnk] 1. Notre Dame 3-0 91.10 72.77 [ 7] -18.32 [ ...

Here is how our Projected Final Committee Top 25 fared during the week of Sept. 19, 2026. Key: Green = Won, beat SR spread Black : Won, lost vs. spread Purple : Lost, beat spread Red : Lost, lost vs. spread Record Playoff Rnk Team Conf 9/13 Proj Odds 9/19 weekend (Vegas / SR spread) 1. Notre Dame Ind 2-0 12-0 78.0 Mich St (+29.5 / +51) ND 27-10 (-34) 2. Indiana *B10 2-0 12-0 60.4 Western KY (+44.5 / +53) IND 38-0 (-15) 3. Texas *SEC 2-0 11-1 55.8 UTSA (+30.5 / +37) TEX 30-6 (-13) 4. Miami FL *ACC 2-0 11-1 46.0 @Wake Forest (+20.5 / +21) MIA 33-20 (-8) 5. Penn State B10 2-0 12-0 44.3 Buffalo (+40.5 / +51) PENNST 55-13 (-9) 6. Texas A&M SEC 2-0 12-0 48.5 Kentucky (+16.5 / +31) KY 31-21 (-41) 7. Ohio State B10 1-1 10-2 40.9 Kent State (+52.5 / +59) OSU 59-3 (-3) 8. Texas Tech *B12 2-0 12-0 41.7 ...

Week 3! More exciting games (really, about the same as last week), maybe some more great upsets? Notre Dame and Indiana each won by 50+ last week and we favor them by 50+ again. But Vegas has a different take on Michigan State, thinking they will stay within 30 of the Irish. If so, that will knock ND down a peg as our top team. Penn State and Ohio State are also huge favorites, as well as Oregon who will probably take out their frustrations on poor Portland State. What's with the Big Ten week 3 and these weak opponents? The SEC has a more competitive week. Texas hosts UTSA, Texas A&M plays at Kentucky, Georgia is at Arkansas, and most importantly: #10 Mississippi hosts  #11 LSU . And Alabama will look for revenge on FSU for last year's loss. The Ole Miss - LSU game is clearly game of the week, not just for the Lane Kiffin intrigue but for where the teams are ranked. Remember, this is where they are projected to finish, and this is close to a 50/50 game. Five SEC t...

Ok Week 2 ended a few days back but let's look at the ramifications in terms of Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds: The big game saw Texas beating Ohio State 24-23 and while the Longhorns soared to #3 as a result, the Buckeyes' Playoff chances really didn't take much of a hit. They were down 3.2% but only dropped two spots and are firmly in the top 11. Texas gained over 12% to easily top 50%, with only Notre Dame and Indiana being over that mark too. Both of those teams won in blowouts, by a combined 107-0. The Irish added 1.4% to both Playoff and National title odds, while Indiana gained in the former but dropped 2% in the latter. Miami jumped to #4 with their 2nd huge win; the Canes have yet to give up a touchdown on defense. But Penn State fell to #5 after only beating Temple 27-9; their 3% drop in Playoff Odds was almost the same as Ohio State's drop, without losing! Record Playoff Bye Bowl Elig Champs LW Rnk Te...

Remember the old AP "How the Top 25 fared"? I'm doing that this week. Not with the AP Top 25, and not even our power rating's top 25, but out Projected Committee Final Top 25 , as seen below. I will update it occasionally throughout today's action. Results in Green beat or met the SportsRatings spread Black is a win, but not against the spread, and  Red is a loss Projected Final Top 25 as of 9/08/2026, tracking games of Saturday Sept. 12: Record Playoff Rnk Team Conf Curr Proj Odds This weekend (SR spread) RESULT(±diff) 1. Notre Dame Ind 1-0 12-0 76.6 vs. Rice (+60) ND 52-0 (-8) 2. Indiana *B10 1-0 12-0 58.4 vs. Howard (+69) IND 55-0 (-14) 3. Penn State B10 1-0 12-0 47.3 @ Temple (+39) PENN ST 27-9 (-21) 4. Oregon B10 1-0 11-1 47.2 @ Oklahoma St (+41) OK ST 39-31 (-49) 5. Ohio State B10 1-0 10-2 44.1 @ #8 Texas (-1) TEX...

Week 2! That means the cupcake games are over and we can get into the thick of the 2026 college fooball season! Guess again. There are more cupcake games this week than there were last week. And in terms of meaningful games? There is exactly ONE. It's a big one, but it's the only intra-(projected) Top 25 game this week. (There was only one last week too) Of course it's #5 Ohio State at #8 Texas . Both are projected Playoff teams and the winner will have the door wide open for them. The loser isn't out of it by any means but any loss makes things harder—last year's loss probably cost Texas a Playoff spot. The Longhorns are a 1.5 point favorite by the oddsmakers and about the same by our projection. In our power ratings Texas is up to #3 now, with Ohio State at #4, suggesting a field goal margin maybe.  But the rest of the Top 25? Our projected margins include Notre Dame by 60, Indiana by 69, Miami by 62, Ole Miss by 56, Virginia by 56, and  Houston by 59. Ten ...

Some weird moments in college football in Week One of 2026 but not many upsets, and in the end no change in the teams featured in our 12-team playoff prediction. Notre Dame remains on top after beating Wisconsin handily (following a slow start). The Irish are now at around 50/50 odds to finish in the top four! This is due to other top teams falling off a bit, where no slacking is tolerated. Indiana allowed 16 points vs. North Texas and lost almost 5 Playoff points and almost 5% of their national champ odds, too; Oregon , of course, had trouble with Boise State and fell 4.3%; Ohio State mauled Ball State 56-3 but the Big Ten is getting devalued a bit in general. Only Penn State rose a meager +0.3% after exactly matching our projected 45 point margin vs. Marshall. The Lions are proving our very rosy forecast correct so far, but it's only one game in. Outside the Big Ten finally, Miami had a solid game at Stanford, winning 45-6, while Texas Tech was less than impressive in beati...