SportsRatings

Lots of FCS teams play FBS teams. Quite a few play two FBS teams. But only Mercyhurst dares to play 3 FBS teams in one season. Did they do well? Not exactly.  @ New Mexico State L 51-14 @ New Mexico L 70-7 @ W. Kentucky L 52-7 Ouch. That's a combined 173-28 over three games. The Lakers (that's their name) are from Erie Pennsylvania, which makes one wonder why they played two New Mexico teams, but that's their business (answer: they made $700K and didn't fly home between the games!) Needless to say they don't rate very high in the Strength Power Rating, which currently considers them an FBS team because they have 3 FBS games.   #   Team                         rec    Overall       Strength     Success 138. Ball St 1-3 -28.71 [138] -26.74 [138] -1.97 [126] 139. Mercyhurst* 0-3 -56.65 [139] -50.66 [139] -5.98 [139] Currently...

There has been remarkably little shuffle in the projected Playoff teams since the pre-season, with 8 of the original top 11 still listed. But of the three that fell out, two of those dropped out this week. Notre Dame holds court again at #1, this will stand until either the Irish lose or a top conference team closes in on 13-0. That team might be Georgia or Texas , both of whom can go 12-0. The Longhorns escaped Tennessee while the Bulldogs crushed Oklahoma 41-13, both good enough for a double-digit odds gain but Georgia sits at #2 and is the new SEC favorite. Alabama surged as well after crushing South Carolina 49-18. The ACC and Big Twelve still rate one team, with Miami and Texas Tech the favorites, though the Red Raiders are feeling some pressure from the other top Big Twelve teams. Record Playoff Bye Bowl Elig Champs LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds % chg Odds Odds % chg Odds % chg ...

Week 4's big games include #3 Texas at #21 Tennessee , #11 Oregon at #19 USC , #12 LSU at #17 Texas A&M .  All the higher-projected teams (Texas, Oregon, LSU) play on the road which makes it interesting.  Tennessee has a huge opportunity to launch themselves into the Playoff picture. Texas probably stays in the Playoff zone even with a loss, given their win over Ohio State. USC has the same opportunity, but it will be a big test for their defense which has given up 26 or more points three times already this season, playing a team that just scored 84 points! It's also a must-win for Oregon who already has a loss. LSU at Texas A&M might be an elimination game for the Playoff as the loser will have two early losses. Note that our power rating favors the Aggies by a point while Vegas has LSU by over a touchdown. The latter seems more realistic given the teams' prior performances. Other big games include #5  Georgia vs. Oklahoma, maybe the Sooners' last sta...

Week 3 concluded with very few upsets and in general, the top teams underperforming, but since they all did there wasn't much movement. But three teams entered (and three exited) the Playoffs, but most weren't from big jumps. Notre Dame remained #1 despite a tepid 27-10 win over Michigan State. Indiana's 38-0 win over Western Kentucky did nothing to push them (the Hoosiers gained 0.0% Playoff Odds) and Texas only roughly caught up to Indiana after beating UTSA 30-6. None of these wins were close to what our power rating expected .  Texas Tech and Georgia both moved up four spots however; the Red Raiders got a win over Houston and the Bulldogs clobbered Arkansas 45-17 (plus they beat WKU by 50 last week, 12 more than Indiana). Miami underperformed a bit vs. Wake Forest and dropped 2 spots (with rising numbers though). The big game was Mississippi's defeat of LSU , which bumped Ole Miss to #7 and pushed LSU out of the Playoff—but only by one rung, and LSU's Pla...

We just published the first-of-the-season unbiased power rating, meaning there are no pre-season biases in it: it uses ONLY this year's games to make its ratings. And somewhat surprisingly, just like our Bayesian-updated pre-season rankings (ratings based on pre-season ratings, but updated with early season results), Notre Dame ranks as the #1 team in the nation. This is a bit surprising, as the Irish have been good but seemingly not great. I mean, they've done well, and have done nothing to drop them from their lofty pre-season heights (where they began at #2 actually). But I really didn't expect that what they've done so far would put them on top of an unbiased ranking. SportsRatings All-Division Power Rating after games of 9/19/2026:   #   Team                         rec   Rating Offense[rnk]   Defense[rnk] 1. Notre Dame 3-0 91.10 72.77 [ 7] -18.32 [ ...

Here is how our Projected Final Committee Top 25 fared during the week of Sept. 19, 2026. Key: Green = Won, beat SR spread Black : Won, lost vs. spread Purple : Lost, beat spread Red : Lost, lost vs. spread Record Playoff Rnk Team Conf 9/13 Proj Odds 9/19 weekend (Vegas / SR spread) 1. Notre Dame Ind 2-0 12-0 78.0 Mich St (+29.5 / +51) ND 27-10 (-34) 2. Indiana *B10 2-0 12-0 60.4 Western KY (+44.5 / +53) IND 38-0 (-15) 3. Texas *SEC 2-0 11-1 55.8 UTSA (+30.5 / +37) TEX 30-6 (-13) 4. Miami FL *ACC 2-0 11-1 46.0 @Wake Forest (+20.5 / +21) MIA 33-20 (-8) 5. Penn State B10 2-0 12-0 44.3 Buffalo (+40.5 / +51) PENNST 55-13 (-9) 6. Texas A&M SEC 2-0 12-0 48.5 Kentucky (+16.5 / +31) KY 31-21 (-41) 7. Ohio State B10 1-1 10-2 40.9 Kent State (+52.5 / +59) OSU 59-3 (-3) 8. Texas Tech *B12 2-0 12-0 41.7 ...

Week 3! More exciting games (really, about the same as last week), maybe some more great upsets? Notre Dame and Indiana each won by 50+ last week and we favor them by 50+ again. But Vegas has a different take on Michigan State, thinking they will stay within 30 of the Irish. If so, that will knock ND down a peg as our top team. Penn State and Ohio State are also huge favorites, as well as Oregon who will probably take out their frustrations on poor Portland State. What's with the Big Ten week 3 and these weak opponents? The SEC has a more competitive week. Texas hosts UTSA, Texas A&M plays at Kentucky, Georgia is at Arkansas, and most importantly: #10 Mississippi hosts  #11 LSU . And Alabama will look for revenge on FSU for last year's loss. The Ole Miss - LSU game is clearly game of the week, not just for the Lane Kiffin intrigue but for where the teams are ranked. Remember, this is where they are projected to finish, and this is close to a 50/50 game. Five SEC t...

Ok Week 2 ended a few days back but let's look at the ramifications in terms of Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds: The big game saw Texas beating Ohio State 24-23 and while the Longhorns soared to #3 as a result, the Buckeyes' Playoff chances really didn't take much of a hit. They were down 3.2% but only dropped two spots and are firmly in the top 11. Texas gained over 12% to easily top 50%, with only Notre Dame and Indiana being over that mark too. Both of those teams won in blowouts, by a combined 107-0. The Irish added 1.4% to both Playoff and National title odds, while Indiana gained in the former but dropped 2% in the latter. Miami jumped to #4 with their 2nd huge win; the Canes have yet to give up a touchdown on defense. But Penn State fell to #5 after only beating Temple 27-9; their 3% drop in Playoff Odds was almost the same as Ohio State's drop, without losing! Record Playoff Bye Bowl Elig Champs LW Rnk Te...

Remember the old AP "How the Top 25 fared"? I'm doing that this week. Not with the AP Top 25, and not even our power rating's top 25, but out Projected Committee Final Top 25 , as seen below. I will update it occasionally throughout today's action. Results in Green beat or met the SportsRatings spread Black is a win, but not against the spread, and  Red is a loss Projected Final Top 25 as of 9/08/2026, tracking games of Saturday Sept. 12: Record Playoff Rnk Team Conf Curr Proj Odds This weekend (SR spread) RESULT(±diff) 1. Notre Dame Ind 1-0 12-0 76.6 vs. Rice (+60) ND 52-0 (-8) 2. Indiana *B10 1-0 12-0 58.4 vs. Howard (+69) IND 55-0 (-14) 3. Penn State B10 1-0 12-0 47.3 @ Temple (+39) PENN ST 27-9 (-21) 4. Oregon B10 1-0 11-1 47.2 @ Oklahoma St (+41) OK ST 39-31 (-49) 5. Ohio State B10 1-0 10-2 44.1 @ #8 Texas (-1) TEX...

Week 2! That means the cupcake games are over and we can get into the thick of the 2026 college fooball season! Guess again. There are more cupcake games this week than there were last week. And in terms of meaningful games? There is exactly ONE. It's a big one, but it's the only intra-(projected) Top 25 game this week. (There was only one last week too) Of course it's #5 Ohio State at #8 Texas . Both are projected Playoff teams and the winner will have the door wide open for them. The loser isn't out of it by any means but any loss makes things harder—last year's loss probably cost Texas a Playoff spot. The Longhorns are a 1.5 point favorite by the oddsmakers and about the same by our projection. In our power ratings Texas is up to #3 now, with Ohio State at #4, suggesting a field goal margin maybe.  But the rest of the Top 25? Our projected margins include Notre Dame by 60, Indiana by 69, Miami by 62, Ole Miss by 56, Virginia by 56, and  Houston by 59. Ten ...