2026 Pre-season college football rankings #1-138: Indiana set to repeat? Notre Dame, Big Ten opponents are toughest roadblocks

Without further ado, the SportsRatings 2026 pre-season rankings, #1 to #138

Key:

2025 record, Strength ranking for 2025, with '25 Offense and Defense ranking
This is the starting basis for ranking
Returning talent rank (scaled 1-138); Portal "class" ranking; "Pure" 2026 ranking; Program rank
The 2026 team consists of returning players and those acquired through the Portal; this forms the bulk of a team's rating, the Pure 2026 rating. This is modified by the Program rank, which tracks the current baseline rating of the program, and accounts for recruiting
2026 projected record game-by-game (and cumulative); Bowl eligibility odds; Rank within conference
Brief rundown of team's personnel losses and portal gains
Team schedule with % chance to win for each game
Schedule rundown (note: Pac-12 games with a * are tentatively scheduled and actual matchups will be determined later in the year)
Updates: These notes refer to a situation not accounted for by the ratings and projections, mostly player eligibility/injury. They will be accounted for when we publish Playoff Projections later in August (after the AP top 25 is out). I will try to make sense of the 5-year rulings too, but those court cases might not be decided by the FBS kickoff date.

Note: To search for your team put an asterisk (*) before the team name and you will jump to the team's 2026 schedule!

Indiana Hoosiers
2025 Results: (16-0) Str: #1 Off/Def: #1/#2
Returning: #39 Portal: #16 Pure Str: #1 Program Rank: #6
2026 Proj: 12-0 (10.4-1.6) Bowl: 99% Conf: B10 #1

The Indiana Hoosiers: repeat national champs? Well, why not? It doesn't seem like anyone is taking the possibility seriously, but if a 2010's-era Alabama team had a decent group of returning players and a slew of good transfers, the Tide would be a clear pre-season #1. Maybe Indiana's program isn't to that level yet but we put them solidly in the top 10 for what Curt Cignetti has done in recent years. Obviously they lose some big pieces, like Heisman winner and #1 pick Fernando Mendoza, two 1,000-yard RBs, and their best receivers. But they were a dominant 16-0 champion with the best offense and #2 defense and reload with a number of Portal gains, chief among them Josh Hoover from TCU. He may be the make-or-break for Indiana's shot at repeating but he doesn't have to be as good as Mendoza, since the Hoosier defense might be even better than last year to pick up the slack (Update: Indiana announced the return of two injured D-Line starters from last season for 5th-year eligibility—as if the Hoosiers needed the help! Update2: the NCAA appeal took away this gift, with future resolution uncertain)
```
 *Indiana (12-0: 15.8%) SOS: #30
 1   # 82 North Texas       97.8
 2    FCS Howard            99.9
 3   # 96 Western Kentucky  98.8
 4   # 49 Northwestern      94.3
 5 @ # 48 Rutgers           90.6
 6 @ # 23 Nebraska          83.2
 7   #  4 Ohio State        65.0
 8 @ # 15 Michigan          73.6
 9   # 46 Minnesota         93.8
10   #  7 Southern Cal      72.0
11 @ # 14 Washington        73.4
12   # 77 Purdue            97.2
```
Needless to say we favor Indiana in every game. They have about a 16% chance to go 12-0, while an 11-1 or 10-2 finish might be the more realistic percentage-wise. They face Ohio State and USC, but both at home. They travel to Michigan and Washington too, giving them four killer games in six weeks (with a bye week before USC) that will largely determine the Big Ten pecking order.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2025 Results: (10-2) Str: #4 Off/Def: #2/#9
Returning: #1 Portal: #88 Pure Str: #2 Program Rank: #2
2026 Proj: 12-0 (11.0-1.0) Bowl: 99% Conf: Ind #1

Notre Dame's chance of winning it all comes from returning the biggest portion of last year's talent of any team; they didn't need to raid the Portal much at all. QB CJ Carr returns along with most of the offensive line, and the defense loses very little. The Irish also rate as our #2 program (behind Ohio State) so any gaps (such as WR) will be filled well through reserves and recruits. RB Jeremiyah Love is a big loss but backup Aneyas Williams averaged 9.3 yards per carry last year. The offense was last season's strength but like Indiana, the Irish defense might improve to pick up any slack as 12 of last year's 13 top tacklers return. Notre Dame finished #4 in Strength last year despite missing the Playoff and should be even better this season.
```
 *Notre Dame (12-0: 33.2%) SOS: #69
 1 @ # 51 Wisconsin         89.0
 2   #124 Rice              99.4
 3   # 60 Michigan St       94.9
 4 @ # 77 Purdue            94.4
 5 @ # 78 North Carolina    94.1
 6   # 66 Stanford          95.7
 7 @ # 21 Brigham Young     78.3
 8 N # 69 Navy              94.3
 9   # 13 Miami FL          77.6
10   # 90 Boston College    97.8
11   # 27 SMU               88.0
12 @ # 81 Syracuse          94.2
```
This year's schedule is loaded with 10 power conference teams but only two were Top 25 teams last year (also just 2 by our rankings this year) leaving them with the #69 SOS. After traveling to Wisconsin the Irish have 5 essentially gimme games before playing at BYU. The big test is Miami in South Bend where they will undoubtedly want revenge on the Hurricanes for last year's defeat which kept them out of the Playoff. We favor the Irish in every game and even with percentages accounted for we expect no worse than 11-1 from this team. Once again, however, their relatively light schedule means 10-2 won't cut it for the Playoff. The Irish have about a 1 in 3 shot at going 12-0, though, by far the best in the nation.
Oregon Ducks
2025 Results: (13-2) Str: #3 Off/Def: #3/#6
Returning: #3 Portal: #91 Pure Str: #5 Program Rank: #3
2026 Proj: 11-1 (9.6-2.4) Bowl: 94% Conf: B10 #2

Oregon follows the traditional path to the top 5: Returning a lot of talent rather than raiding the transfer portal. Last year's #3 in Strength is #3 again due to returning the bulk of their defense and key pieces on offense, most importantly QB Dante Moore (71.8% completions, 3,565 yds, 30:10 ratio) who will be an early Heisman favorite. Last year's team only lost 2 games, both to national champ Indiana. Will this finally be the year that perennial high-level contender Oregon wins it all?
```
 *Oregon (11-1) SOS #22
 1   # 50 Boise St          90.4
 2 @ # 91 Oklahoma St       93.8
 3    FCS Portland St       99.7
 4 @ #  7 Southern Cal      53.8
 5   # 31 UCLA              84.7
 6   # 23 Nebraska          82.8
 7 @ # 32 Illinois          78.2
 8   # 49 Northwestern      90.2
 9 @ #  4 Ohio State        46.3
10   # 15 Michigan          73.5
11 @ # 60 Michigan St       88.8
12   # 14 Washington        73.0
```
Oregon avoids Indiana during the regular season so their biggest challenges will be road games at USC and Ohio State; split those and they finish 11-1, but there are many other tests and 10-2 might be a more realistic pronouncement. They have a 5% chance to go 12-0. Either way, getting out of the tough Big Ten with a good enough record to make the Playoff is the real goal, but we will probably have to wait until game 4 to know whether Oregon is up to the task.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #2 Off/Def: #11/#1
Returning: #17 Portal: #67 Pure Str: #9 Program Rank: #1
2026 Proj: 11-1 (8.8-3.2) Bowl: 90% Conf: B10 #3

The consensus pre-season favorite seems to be Ohio State (#1 in the pre-season coaches poll), who only lost last year to #1 Indiana and Playoff runner-up Miami. On offense, the Buckeyes return their top QB, RB, and WR; last year's #1 defense loses the top 5 tacklers but they get some Portal replacements (from FSU, Alabama, and UCF) and with the nation's #1 Program the Buckeyes stay in our top five, so we aren't so far out of line this year. Despite their #4 ranking they are only 3rd in the top-heavy Big Ten.
```
 *Ohio State (11-1) SOS #1
 1   #134 Ball St           99.2
 2 @ # 11 Texas             57.1
 3   #136 Kent St           99.3
 4   # 32 Illinois          84.0
 5 @ # 37 Iowa              80.1
 6   # 39 Maryland          86.6
 7 @ #  1 Indiana           35.0
 8 @ #  7 Southern Cal      52.1
 9   #  3 Oregon            53.7
10   # 49 Northwestern      89.4
11 @ # 23 Nebraska          74.5
12   # 15 Michigan          71.7
```
Ohio State has the nation's toughest schedule thanks to playing five top-25 teams on their Big Ten slate plus the game at Texas, giving them just a 1.5% chance to go undefeated. We still favor them in Arlington but it won't be easy, and along with trips to Indiana and USC, and hosting Oregon the Buckeyes could easily end up 8-4 despite being a top 5 team. The odds say 9-3 is a likely outcome but if they beat three top ten teams back-to-back-to-back they'll be at or near #1 in the Committee rankings.
Penn State Nittany Lions
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #17 Off/Def: #18/#15
Returning: #120 Portal: #1 Pure Str: #8 Program Rank: #7
2026 Proj: 12-0 (9.6-2.4) Bowl: 94% Conf: B10 #4

This is a shocker. Penn State #5? Last year many people (SportsRatings too!) had Penn State in the top five and they flopped. But despite their upset losses to UCLA and Northwestern they still finished at #17 in Strength. The Lions nearly beat Oregon and were one play away from beating Indiana. They simply fell apart as a team under James Franklin. They also lose almost every starter on offense and defense but new coach Matt Campbell has brought in much of last year's Iowa State team, including QB Rocco Brecht, RB Carson Hansen, two starting WRs, two starting TEs, and an OL starter. On defense, a D-line starter, a starting LB, and two in the secondary. With a few others it adds up to the #1 Portal intake in the nation. The result is basically last year's Iowa State team, who finished #35 in Strength, added to the remnants of Penn State's squad. Penn State has a top ten football program despite last year's woes—can Matt Campbell have the team recover in stride? He won big at Iowa State and that says a lot.
```
 *Penn State (12-0: 5.4%) SOS #43
 1   # 94 Marshall           94.7
 2 @ #104 Temple             94.6
 3   #127 Buffalo            98.1
 4   # 51 Wisconsin          85.8
 5 @ # 49 Northwestern       79.8
 6   #  7 Southern Cal       55.3
 7 @ # 15 Michigan           56.4
 8   # 77 Purdue             92.8
 9 @ # 14 Washington         56.0
10   # 46 Minnesota          85.0
11   # 48 Rutgers            85.6
12 @ # 39 Maryland           76.4
```
The Lions' schedule is pretty easy up front, so we won't know much until Wisconsin and Northwestern, and then the real games start: USC, at Michigan, and at Washington. We show them favorites in every game, with 10-2 more likely by the odds but still over 5% chance to go undefeated. This of course assumes the team is as good as a #5 team, but they won't have to be that good to have fan support; even if they lose the marquee games and go 9-3 Happy Valley will be pleased following last year's fiasco. Ironically it would be just the type of season they hated Franklin for, but we're starting over now and Campbell is in the honeymoon phase.
Mississippi Rebels
2025 Results: (13-2) Str: #10 Off/Def: #6/#38
Returning: #38 Portal: #19 Pure Str: #7 Program Rank: #9
2026 Proj: 11-1 (8.8-3.2) Bowl: 87% Conf: SEC #1

Perhaps due to the Playoff run under Pete Golding, Ole Miss returns a decent amount of talent from last year's top ten team despite Lane Kiffin's departure, and they do pretty well in the Portal too. QB Trinidad Chambliss is back as is 1,500 yard rusher Kewan Lacey. The defense returns 3 of its top 5 tacklers and supplements a slew of players from the Portal and they also bolster the O-line. This places them as the best team in the SEC; will they live up to that?
```
 *Mississippi (11-1) SOS #15
 1 N # 19 Louisville         68.6
 2   #129 UNC-Charlotte      98.4
 3   # 17 LSU                68.6
 4 @ # 34 Florida            70.9
 5 @ # 22 Vanderbilt         68.2
 6   # 26 Missouri           76.8
 7 @ # 11 Texas              49.1
 8   # 40 Auburn             82.6
 9   # 10 Georgia            56.8
10 @ # 12 Oklahoma           50.4
11    FCS Wofford            99.4
12   # 58 Mississippi St     87.2
```
Ole Miss has a tough schedule. They open with Louisville in Nashville, have a break against Charlotte, then face 8 straight top-40 teams. The most interesting of course will be game 3 when they host LSU, but the only game where they will be underdog is at Texas. That would make them 11-1, but if you add up the percentages you got 8.8 wins, since beating Georgia at home and Oklahoma on the road are tough calls. They have just a 1.7% chance of going 12-0. In any case, the team held together more than most teams that didn't change coaches and has a real shot at the SEC championship.
Southern Cal Trojans
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #11 Off/Def: #9/#27
Returning: #6 Portal: #45 Pure Str: #6 Program Rank: #12
2026 Proj: 8-4 (8.3-3.7) Bowl: 85% Conf: B10 #5

USC almost finished as a top ten team in Strength last year and this year they make it—pre-season at least. That still puts them only #5 in the Big Ten, however. Much of the improvement comes from returning a lot of last year's team: QB Jayden Maiava, top RB King Miller, and most of the O-line (update: they recently lost starter Killian O'Connor; the O-Line remains deep so the Trojans will remain in the top ten). The defense loses more but that's where they concentrate their Portal help, making the defensive side better than last year, too.
```
 *USC *Southern Cal (8-4) SOS #2
 1   #121 San Jose St        98.0
 2   # 70 Fresno St          90.7
 3   #100 UL-Lafayette       95.8
 4 @ # 48 Rutgers            79.3
 5   #  3 Oregon             46.2
 6   # 14 Washington         65.0
 7 @ #  5 Penn State         44.7
 8 @ # 51 Wisconsin          79.6
 9   #  4 Ohio State         47.9
10 @ #  1 Indiana            28.0
11   # 39 Maryland           82.5
12 @ # 31 UCLA               71.8
```
Despite three easy games early the Trojans have one of the toughest schedules in the country. Here's the problem: All four Big Ten teams ranked above them—Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana—are on their slate. This is how the #7 team in our pre-season ratings projects at 8-4 game-by-game and similarly (8.3-3.7) by cumulative wins. All four big games should be competitive, though, meaning USC certainly controls their own destiny to the Playoff.
Texas A&M Aggies
2025 Results: (11-2) Str: #13 Off/Def: #14/#23
Returning: #60 Portal: #5 Pure Str: #3 Program Rank: #18
2026 Proj: 12-0 (8.9-3.1) Bowl: 89% Conf: SEC #2

The Aggies were good last year but lose a fair chunk of the team; luckily they are are masters of NIL and score a huge Portal haul. The offensive line is representative of both the team's losses (4 starters gone) and Portal wins (transfer starters from South Carolina, LSU, and Alabama). They also add receivers from Miami and Alabama, and defensive starters from UNC and Tulsa. The rebuilt team could be even better than last year's squad.
```
 *Texas A&M (12-0: 2.2%)  SOS #18
 1   #128 Missouri St        97.9
 2   # 45 Arizona St         83.9
 3   # 53 Kentucky           86.5
 4 @ # 17 LSU                59.7
 5   # 41 Arkansas           83.2
 6 @ # 26 Missouri           69.5
 7    FCS The Citadel        99.6
 8 @ # 18 Alabama            62.6
 9 @ # 24 South Carolina     68.3
10   # 16 Tennessee          68.8
11 @ # 12 Oklahoma           50.7
12   # 11 Texas              59.4
```
The Aggies avoid Ole Miss and Georgia and get Texas at home, which is all they need to be favored in every game. However, the cluster of tough teams they play—five top 25 teams in a row to end the season including a game at Oklahoma that is essentially 50/50—means that have just a 2.2% chance of actually going 12-0. Add it all up and 9-3 is their mathematically expected record. There's a lot of parity in the SEC and many teams could win the league, with A&M firmly in the mix.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #5 Off/Def: #10/#5
Returning: #29 Portal: #24 Pure Str: #4 Program Rank: #17
2026 Proj: 12-0 (10.2-1.8) Bowl: 97% Conf: B12 #1

Texas Tech was top ten overall and on both offense and defense last year. Between returning players and portal additions they're basically holding on to their top five Strength finish from last year. Their slightly lower Program ranking (#17) knocks them down a bit, but they're still the team to beat in the Big Twelve. Update: Cincy transfer QB Brendan Sorsby was the key incoming player bolstering their Portal score, but he was ruled ineligible. They're still strong at the QB position but their ranking will be knocked down a couple spots Update2: They got Tom Castellanos from FSU, who (probably?) meets the "non-NFL" definition on the Big 12's ban language. See our upcoming pre-season Playoff Projections where this will all be taken into account, if sense can be made of it!
```
 *Texas Tech (12-0: 14.0%)  SOS #68
 1    FCS Abilene Christian  98.0
 2 @ # 93 Oregon St          90.0
 3   # 20 Houston            74.3
 4   #135 Sam Houston St     98.8
 5 @ # 54 Colorado           80.2
 6   # 45 Arizona St         84.2
 7 @ # 61 Cincinnati         82.8
 8   # 25 Arizona            76.9
 9   # 65 West Virginia      90.0
10 @ # 91 Oklahoma St        90.3
11 @ # 47 Baylor             79.3
12   # 28 TCU                78.2
```
Texas Tech avoids BYU, Kansas State, and Utah, and get Houston, Arizona, and TCU all at home. This gives the Raiders a solid 14% chance to go 12-0. They're nearly a 75% favorite in every game. (Note that this is before Sorsby's ineligibility). Add it up and you still get just 10.2 wins but as the #1 team in the Big Twelve, Texas Tech is in a really good position again this year to make the Playoff.
Georgia Bulldogs
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #8 Off/Def: #22/#7
Returning: #12 Portal: #71 Pure Str: #13 Program Rank: #4
2026 Proj: 11-1 (8.9-3.1) Bowl: 88% Conf: SEC #3

Georgia returns just enough of last year's #8 Strength team to remain in our top ten. They keep QB Gunner Stockton, their top RBs, and three starters on the O-line. Defense was their strength last year and they return just enough on that side of the ball, too, to remain elite. Any deficiencies are smoothed over by Georgia's #4 Program ranking via recruiting/coaching/intangibles.
```
 *Georgia (11-1)  SOS #27
 1    FCS Tennessee St       99.6
 2   # 96 Western Kentucky   94.9
 3 @ # 41 Arkansas           74.6
 4   # 12 Oklahoma           57.8
 5   # 22 Vanderbilt         74.5
 6 @ # 18 Alabama            60.5
 7   # 40 Auburn             81.9
 8   # 34 Florida            77.4
 9 @ #  6 Mississippi        43.2
10   # 26 Missouri           74.8
11 @ # 24 South Carolina     66.0
12   # 56 Georgia Tech       85.3
```
Georgia's SEC schedule is tough of course, but with two gimme games at the start, it's not the toughest. They play Ole Miss on the road—their one expected loss—but avoid Texas A&M. Oklahoma and Alabama are their next toughest games, with Bama on the road. Game-by-game that results in 11-1, with 8.9 wins the expected value, and just over a 2% chance to go 12-0. The SEC is wide open among perhaps a dozen teams and as usual Georgia is in the running.
Texas Longhorns
2025 Results: (10-3) Str: #20 Off/Def: #29/#17
Returning: #37 Portal: #21 Pure Str: #12 Program Rank: #8
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.8-4.2) Bowl: 78% Conf: SEC #4

Texas was the consensus pre-season #1 team last year and that didn't work out; I didn't have them in the top ten and of that I am proud. This year once again, Texas is consensus top 3, and the Longhorns are outside our top ten. Arch Manning is back, again a Heisman favorite and he has a good shot at it with 2 returning starters at WR and adding another from Auburn thru the Portal, and an O-line starter from Wake Forest. The defense gets a Portal boost too, and having the #8 program means the team has the potential to be better than last year's #20 Strength ranking, and keeps them in the first tranche of SEC teams. Update: OL Cole Hutson got a 5th year appeal approved (pending any counter-appeals). On the downside, LB Ty'Anthony Smith (5th tackler last year) was dismissed from the program; a couple of FBS transfers will vie for his spot.
```
 *Texas (10-2) SOS #4
 1   # 73 Texas State        89.7
 2   #  4 Ohio State         42.9
 3   # 76 UTSA               90.5
 4 @ # 16 Tennessee          56.2
 5 N # 12 Oklahoma           51.1
 6   # 34 Florida            76.4
 7   #  6 Mississippi        50.9
 8   # 58 Mississippi St     84.8
 9 @ # 26 Missouri           65.1
10 @ # 17 LSU                55.0
11   # 41 Arkansas           80.2
12 @ #  8 Texas A&M          40.6
```
Texas looks good but again has a tough schedule. When you play in the SEC and schedule Ohio State, that's a rough move, and it really may have cost them a Playoff spot last year. Again I favor the Buckeyes to win the game, but this one's in Arlington and with revenge motivation the Longhorns have a good shot to win. Texas will also be an underdog at Texas A&M. 10-2 would probably be enough to make the Playoff but that assumes wins at Tennessee, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Mississippi, and at LSU. They basically need to win four of the six games featured above, which is why they grade out to just 7.8 wins cumulatively. Lose all six and they're in danger of missing a bowl game. We will run Playoff Projections later in August and Texas, with their killer schedule, will probably not have the best odds.
Oklahoma Sooners
2025 Results: (10-3) Str: #16 Off/Def: #47/#4
Returning: #7 Portal: #47 Pure Str: #10 Program Rank: #14
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.9-4.1) Bowl: 78% Conf: SEC #5

The Sooners are the 5th SEC team in a tight range from #6 to #12, which means they could win the league or finish with 4 losses, with the latter looking more likely. They should be comparable to last year's model, which made the Playoff and lost to Alabama after beating them earlier in the season. Last year's team was unique in that they were led by a killer defense while the offense slacked; this year's offense should be better, with QB Mateer hoping to improve his numbers with starters at WR and TE brought in from Virginia and Florida. The defense will mostly rely on returning players; Oklahoma ranks #7 overall in relative returning production.
```
 *Oklahoma (8-4) SOS #6
 1   #132 UTEP               98.2
 2 @ # 15 Michigan           50.4
 3   # 79 New Mexico         90.0
 4 @ # 10 Georgia            42.2
 5 N # 11 Texas              48.9
 6   # 53 Kentucky           83.0
 7 @ # 58 Mississippi St     77.5
 8   # 24 South Carolina     72.0
 9 @ # 34 Florida            66.3
10   #  6 Mississippi        49.6
11   #  8 Texas A&M          49.3
12 @ # 26 Missouri           63.8
```
Like most SEC teams Oklahoma has a tough schedule and adding Michigan makes it top ten worthy. That game is in Ann Arbor and is a pure tossup, which means the Sooners might need to beat Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M to make up for an early loss, and still finish 8-4. Like Texas, Oklahoma's Playoff Odds don't appear to be great unless they establish themselves as the best team in the conference. Playing five top 15 teams will do that.
Miami Hurricanes
2025 Results: (13-3) Str: #6 Off/Def: #19/#3
Returning: #54 Portal: #32 Pure Str: #15 Program Rank: #13
2026 Proj: 11-1 (9.1-2.9) Bowl: 91% Conf: ACC #1

Miami finished runner-up to Indiana but was lucky to get in the mix in the first place due to their erratic play. We see them downgraded from their #6 2025 Strength due to personnel losses and decent-but-not-amazing Portal work. They lose QB Carson Beck but have leading RB Mark Fletcher and top WR Malachi Tony back, but the offense still looks like the weaker unit despite QB Darian Mensah brought in from Duke. The defense suffers key losses but should be almost as good as last year as they return #1 tackler LB Mohamed Toure and supplement via the Portal to fill the gaps. Update: Miami dismissed WVA transfer Cam Vaughn but they are still pretty loaded at the WR position.
```
 *Miami FL  (11-1) SOS #51
 1 @ # 66 Stanford           78.2
 2    FCS Florida A&M        99.5
 3 @ # 57 Wake Forest        73.8
 4   #111 Central Michigan   95.1
 5 @ # 43 Clemson            68.3
 6   # 38 Florida St         75.0
 7   # 35 Pittsburgh         72.4
 8 @ # 78 North Carolina     82.5
 9 @ #  2 Notre Dame         22.4
10   # 42 Duke               76.2
11   # 36 Virginia Tech      72.4
12   # 90 Boston College     90.3
```
Miami's advantage is being in the weak ACC, meaning their schedule is only borderline top 50 even with a game at Notre Dame on their slate. The game vs. the Irish is the big one and it comes pretty late as opposed to last year when it was the opener; also, Notre Dame will be looking for revenge and if both teams come in undefeated it will be the biggest game in the rivalry since the 1989 classic. Miami really ought to go 11-1 and has almost a 2% chance to go 12-0, but could easily sink to 9-3 given their perennial inconsistency.
Washington Huskies
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #9 Off/Def: #12/#16
Returning: #14 Portal: #63 Pure Str: #14 Program Rank: #16
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.7-4.3) Bowl: 80% Conf: B10 #6

Despite their 9-4 finish the Huskies were a top ten team in Strength and with their returning talent they should be almost as good this year. Four O-line starters will help returning QB Demond Williams while the top RB and WR are gone. The solid Defense should remain so. Washington would have needed more Portal juice to make the top ten, but it's a competitive league; at #14 the Huskies are the #6 Big Ten team.
```
 *Washington  (8-4) SOS #16
 1   # 71 Washington St      86.2
 2   # 80 Utah St            88.5
 3    FCS E Washington       97.5
 4   # 46 Minnesota          78.2
 5 @ #  7 Southern Cal       35.0
 6   # 37 Iowa               73.7
 7 @ # 77 Purdue             82.2
 8 @ # 23 Nebraska           58.6
 9   #  5 Penn State         44.0
10 @ # 60 Michigan St        76.2
11   #  1 Indiana            26.6
12 @ #  3 Oregon             27.0
```
Last year the Huskies pretty much beat the mediocre Big Ten teams and lost to the best ones and if that happens again Washington will go 8-4. In fact it's hard to see them breaking out of that and no matter how well their season goes, #1 Indiana and #3 Oregon (on the road) will be looming to possibly crush their Playoff dreams with back-to-back losses. Or, perhaps, to crown them Big Ten champs?
Michigan Wolverines
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #19 Off/Def: #23/#22
Returning: #36 Portal: #43 Pure Str: #16 Program Rank: #10
2026 Proj: 7-5 (7.3-4.7) Bowl: 74% Conf: B10 #7

The #7 Big Ten team is at #15, which tells you something about the strength of the league (at least the top half). The Wolverines basically maintain last year's quality through a decent returning group and above-average Portal work, and leaning on the strength of the Program which we put at #10. New coach Kyle Whittingham (previously at Utah like, forever) did a great job retaining players after the Sherrone Moore debacle, with QB Bryce Underwood and the top RB and WR (Marshall and Marsh) all back. The defense lost more (the top five tacklers) but the Portal gods gifted them two defensive starters from—guess where?—Utah.
```
 *Michigan  (7-5)  SOS #3
 1   # 92 Western Michigan   89.7
 2   # 12 Oklahoma           49.7
 3   #132 UTEP               97.2
 4   # 37 Iowa               72.8
 5 @ # 46 Minnesota          69.8
 6   #  5 Penn State         43.6
 7   #  1 Indiana            26.4
 8 @ # 48 Rutgers            69.5
 9   # 60 Michigan St        82.1
10 @ #  3 Oregon             26.5
11   # 31 UCLA               69.8
12 @ #  4 Ohio State         28.3
```
Michigan has a tough Big Ten slate and also hosts Oklahoma, which is a great formula for a damn tough schedule (#3 in our books). Game by game they show 7-5, which is not going to garner a #15 ranking let alone a Playoff spot. The Oklahoma game is their most likely "flip" as that is really a tossup and a home game. They also get Penn State and Indiana at home but Oregon and Ohio State are road games. The Wolverines need some magic from Whittingham or just plain luck.
Tennessee Volunteers
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #24 Off/Def: #8/#72
Returning: #31 Portal: #53 Pure Str: #22 Program Rank: #11
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.7-4.3) Bowl: 76% Conf: SEC #6

The SEC matches the Big Ten's dominance (7 of the top 15) with 8 of the top 18. Tennessee is #6 in the conference but if they win the games they're supposed to they could find themselves in the SEC championship game. Last year's team was offense-first and returns a solid level of talent there including top RB DeSean Bishop, most of the receiving corps, and 4/5 of the O-line. The big question is who will replace QB Joey Aguilar. The defense underperformed last season and loses a lot of players, but the top four tacklers are back and they get most of their Portal help here, bringing in starters from Penn State, K-State, and Auburn. Still, the D-Line looks suspect. Update: the Defense took another hit when safety Edrees Farooq hurt his knee and will miss the season; this should only drop them about one spot.
```
 *Tennessee  (10-2)  SOS #25
 1    FCS Furman             98.2
 2 @ # 56 Georgia Tech       68.8
 3   #117 Kennesaw St        95.0
 4   # 11 Texas              43.8
 5   # 40 Auburn             71.6
 6 @ # 41 Arkansas           63.8
 7   # 18 Alabama            57.8
 8 @ # 24 South Carolina     54.4
 9   # 53 Kentucky           76.7
10 @ #  8 Texas A&M          31.3
11   # 17 LSU                54.8
12 @ # 22 Vanderbilt         54.5
```
Given all the tough games on Tennessee's schedule—Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU, and Vanderbilt—it's pretty impressive that they come out favored to be 10-2, losing only the home game to Texas and at Texas A&M. Can the Vols go 5-2 in close games? If so they'll be in the running for the SEC title and a Playoff position. If they sink to say, 8-4, which their expected win total suggests, they won't be in the running for either.
LSU Tigers
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #34 Off/Def: #62/#11
Returning: #88 Portal: #9 Pure Str: #18 Program Rank: #19
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.5-4.5) Bowl: 75% Conf: SEC #7

The Tigers are a big College Football story this year: how will Lane Kiffin do in what seems like his 100th head coaching job? It's his 4th SEC job including his time as Alabama OC. Lots of players departed after Brian Kelly's firing but Kiffin made a top-ten-level Portal effort to restock the team. On offense they had to replace both of last year's QBs and most of their receivers and O-Line, and did so with starters from Arizona State (QB Sam Leavitt), Florida (WR), Hawaii (WR), Maryland (OL), and Colorado (OL). Last year's excellent defense was hit even harder but Kiffen brings two starters over from Ole Miss. All of this has the Tigers back in the top 25, up from last year's #34 Strength. Update: LSU gained ex-NFL(!) tight end Dae'Quan Wright who started for Ole Miss last season; also D-line backup Junior Tuihalamaka from Notre Dame, both from the "Louisiana" 5th-year lawsuit which may be overturned during the season(!) Update234: They also got DLine starter Zxavian Harris from Ole Miss but, the SEC voted to not allow ex-NFL players so Harris and Wright are out? Stay tuned.
```
 *LSU  (8-4)  SOS #20
 1   # 43 Clemson            72.4
 2   # 98 Louisiana Tech     91.2
 3 @ #  6 Mississippi        31.4
 4   #  8 Texas A&M          40.3
 5    FCS McNeese St         98.7
 6 @ # 53 Kentucky           68.7
 7   # 58 Mississippi St     77.7
 8 @ # 40 Auburn             63.3
 9   # 18 Alabama            57.4
10   # 11 Texas              45.0
11 @ # 16 Tennessee          45.2
12 @ # 41 Arkansas           63.3
```
LSU has the same problem all the 2nd-tier SEC teams have: a killer schedule with 4 (or 5) expected losses. We see Ole Miss getting "revenge" on Kiffin early, and Texas A&M, Texas, and Tennessee also spoiling his debut season. And that's assuming a home win over Alabama. Kiffin will be beloved if he can navigate this schedule to the Playoff, but he'll probably have to spend his goodwill this season as a building year despite the team's potential strength.
Alabama Crimson Tide
2025 Results: (11-4) Str: #12 Off/Def: #15/#13
Returning: #87 Portal: #50 Pure Str: #42 Program Rank: #5
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.2-4.8) Bowl: 71% Conf: SEC #8

After two "off" seasons without Nick Saban, Alabama ranks only as the #5 program in college football by our metric. That ends up saving them from being ranked #42 based on their meager returning production and mediocre Portal haul. The offense is a huge question mark. The Tide look to replace Ty Simpson (28:5) with redshirt freshman Keelon Russell, and assuming that goes well they lose almost the entire offensive line. The defense is a bit better off and they supplement with starters from Oregon and Virginia Tech.
```
 *Alabama  (8-4)  SOS #23
 1   # 86 East Carolina      85.2
 2 @ # 53 Kentucky           65.1
 3   # 38 Florida St         68.1
 4   # 24 South Carolina     61.1
 5 @ # 58 Mississippi St     67.0
 6   # 10 Georgia            39.5
 7 @ # 16 Tennessee          42.2
 8   #  8 Texas A&M          37.4
 9 @ # 17 LSU                42.6
10 @ # 22 Vanderbilt         51.4
11    FCS Chattanooga        96.2
12   # 40 Auburn             69.1
```
Alabama has few gimme games and could lose one even before hosting Georgia, traveling to Tennessee, back for Texas A&M, and on to LSU which could give them 4 losses in a row. Or five, if Vandy is up to the challenge in Nashville. Will fans tolerate another 4 loss season from the Tide under Kalen DeBoer? Or will Alabama, whom I picked #1 last year, spite me by being the #1 team this year when I pick them #18?
Louisville Cardinals
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #32 Off/Def: #34/#39
Returning: #109 Portal: #11 Pure Str: #26 Program Rank: #22
2026 Proj: 11-1 (8.1-3.9) Bowl: 79% Conf: ACC #2

At one point last year Louisville looked like a Playoff team but some bad losses (Cal and Clemson at home) knocked them completely out of contention. The Cardinals lose A LOT of last year's team but supplement with a diverse Portal haul on offense to point to an improved 2026. Four starters are gone from the offensive line but they bring in transfers from Houston, Boston College, South Carolina, and Delaware. They lose their QB but bring in Ohio State backup Lincoln Kienholz. Transfers from FSU and Tulsa supplement the receiver corps. The defense isn't hit as hard but doesn't have the gaps filled as well, either.
```
 *Louisville  (11-1)  SOS #60
 1 N #  6 Mississippi         31.4
 2    FCS Villanova           92.1
 3   # 27 SMU                 60.5
 4   # 57 Wake Forest         73.2
 5 @ # 55 NC State            64.0
 6   # 38 Florida St          66.1
 7 @ # 81 Syracuse            75.3
 8   # 66 Stanford            78.4
 9 @ # 56 Georgia Tech        63.5
10 @ # 78 North Carolina      75.0
11   # 35 Pittsburgh          62.6
12 @ # 53 Kentucky            64.2
```
Like all teams not from the SEC or Big Ten, scheduling is Louisville's friend. After a rough start (opportunity?) in Nashville vs. Ole Miss, the going gets easier and the Cards avoid ACC #1 Miami, meaning their path is clear to the ACC title game. That said, there are very few uncontested games; they have just a 0.6% chance of going undefeated, and an 8-4 finish might happen again.
Houston Cougars
2025 Results: (10-3) Str: #51 Off/Def: #48/#57
Returning: #24 Portal: #12 Pure Str: #11 Program Rank: #62
2026 Proj: 10-2 (8.2-3.8) Bowl: 83% Conf: B12 #2

Houston was 10-3 last year but that was deceptive; they were only #51 in Strength and outperformed their easy schedule. This season, though, they may actually play like a 10-3 team. Combining a strong returning group with a very solid Portal haul puts them at #20, with the potential to be near the top ten if we could disregard their #62 program rank. The offense should see a boost as the QB and top WR are back, and three transfers give the Cougars 5 FBS starters on the O-Line. The defense should be better too with several Portal players giving them a bump.
```
 *Houston (10-2)  SOS #61
 1   # 93 Oregon St          84.1
 2    FCS Southern U.        99.5
 3 @ #  9 Texas Tech         25.7
 4 @ #101 Georgia Southern   82.5
 5   # 52 Central Florida    69.3
 6 @ # 29 Kansas St          50.0
 7   # 91 Oklahoma St        83.9
 8 @ # 33 Utah               50.9
 9   # 61 Cincinnati         75.6
10 @ # 54 Colorado           62.7
11 @ # 65 West Virginia      69.8
12   # 47 Baylor             69.5
```
Houston is the #2 Big Twelve team but plays at Texas Tech. Their only other "loss" is a true 50/50 game at K-State, but several other tough games loom like Utah in SLC. All told that 10-2 projection might be 8-4, but the Cougars have a great chance to make the Big Twelve title game and maybe even the Playoff.
Brigham Young Cougars
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #18 Off/Def: #24/#12
Returning: #16 Portal: #81 Pure Str: #25 Program Rank: #25
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.8-4.2) Bowl: 78% Conf: B12 #3

These Cougars are 3rd in line in the Big Twelve, just behind the other Cougars (Houston). Unlike Houston BYU was a solid team last year, losing only two game, both to Texas Tech but still missing the Playoff. Their returning players are the driver of their projection, with little significant Portal input. They're set at QB and RB but lose their top 3 receivers from last season and 3 O-Line starters. The defense is better situated with most players back, meaning it will continue to be the team's strength.
```
 *BYU *Brigham Young (10-2) SOS #45
 1    FCS Utah Tech          98.1
 2   # 25 Arizona            58.3
 3 @ #113 Colorado St        87.0
 4 @ # 28 TCU                49.2
 5   # 72 Iowa St            80.4
 6   #  2 Notre Dame         21.7
 7 @ # 52 Central Florida    60.5
 8   # 45 Arizona St         67.6
 9 @ # 33 Utah               50.8
10   # 47 Baylor             69.6
11 @ # 44 Kansas             58.4
12   # 61 Cincinnati         75.3
```
Adding Notre Dame makes BYU's schedule tougher than the normal Big Twelve slate and probably gives them their only certain loss. The game at TCU is another, though they may win that and lose at Utah instead. They risk going 8-4 and being out of the Playoff picture, but if they go 10-2 with just one Big Twelve loss they'll have a Playoff shot with a conference title game appearance. They would likely face Texas Tech there, once again. Maybe three's a charm.
Vanderbilt Commodores
2025 Results: (10-3) Str: #14 Off/Def: #7/#47
Returning: #46 Portal: #49 Pure Str: #21 Program Rank: #35
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.9-5.1) Bowl: 67% Conf: SEC #9

What will life after Diego Pavia be like for Vanderbilt? Not too bad, perhaps, with new coach Clark Lea keeping enough of last year's squad together to make a very respectable team in a rebuilding year. Pavia (70.6%, 29:8) will be hard to replace but 5-star true freshman Jared Curtis might get a shot at it with a weakened O-Line. The defense is less depleted but wasn't their strong point last year.
```
 *Vanderbilt  (7-5)   SOS #29
 1    FCS Austin Peay         91.8
 2   #105 Delaware            88.3
 3   # 55 NC State            69.3
 4 @ # 40 Auburn              54.8
 5 @ # 10 Georgia             25.5
 6   #  6 Mississippi         31.8
 7   # 41 Arkansas            64.4
 8 @ # 53 Kentucky            60.0
 9 @ # 58 Mississippi St      61.9
10   # 18 Alabama             48.7
11 @ # 34 Florida             49.0
12   # 16 Tennessee           45.5
```
After the first two or three games Vandy doesn't catch a break, with tough games the rest of the season. If they get past Auburn they still have Georgia and Ole Miss back-to-back, then three tough games they have to win, and they end with three tight games vs. Bama, Florida, and Tennessee. There are a lot of close ones they could win but a 7-5 finish, more or less, looks likely. You can't even dip 8 spots in Strength in this league without adding several losses.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #44 Off/Def: #40/#53
Returning: #27 Portal: #25 Pure Str: #19 Program Rank: #47
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.5-5.5) Bowl: 63% Conf: B10 #8

Nebraska does a great job retaining players and fishing from the Portal this year and improve a lot from last year's #44 Strength ranking. The main Portal finds are on offense: at QB (Anthony Colandrea from UNLV) and OL (transfers from LSU, Iowa State, and South Carolina).
```
 *Nebraska  (7-5)    SOS #14
 1   #102 Ohio U.             87.3
 2   #114 Bowling Green       90.6
 3    FCS North Dakota        86.7
 4 @ # 60 Michigan St         62.9
 5   # 39 Maryland            62.5
 6   #  1 Indiana             16.8
 7 @ #  3 Oregon              17.2
 8   # 14 Washington          41.4
 9 @ # 32 Illinois            48.8
10 @ # 48 Rutgers             57.9
11   #  4 Ohio State          25.5
12 @ # 37 Iowa                51.3
```
Nebraska should get to six wins...but that might be it. We show them 7-5 and that includes starting 5-0, which would mean a 2-5 finish (and that assumes a win at Iowa, no guarantee). They face #1 Indiana, #3 Oregon, and #4 Ohio State in that stretch, with close losses to Washington and at Illinois. Even Rutgers on the road is no gimme! Despite a Top 25 level team, Matt Rhule may be on a very hot seat by the end of the season.
South Carolina Gamecocks
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #43 Off/Def: #67/#24
Returning: #79 Portal: #18 Pure Str: #28 Program Rank: #29
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 64% Conf: SEC #10

South Carolina was just 4-8 last year (#43 Strength); a solid Portal performance could see them in the top 25, yet just barely in a bowl game. The Gamecock offense faltered last season but should get a boost with a massive Portal haul on the offensive line, giving them FBS starters at every position. The defense should remain stout. Update: the Gamecocks lost backup WR Jordan Sellers, but the WR is deep with transfers who are starting.
```
 *South Carolina  (6-6)  SOS #19
 1   #136 Kent St             94.9
 2    FCS Towson              95.6
 3   # 58 Mississippi St      70.8
 4 @ # 18 Alabama             38.9
 5   # 53 Kentucky            68.7
 6 @ # 34 Florida             49.0
 7   # 16 Tennessee           45.6
 8 @ # 12 Oklahoma            28.0
 9   #  8 Texas A&M           31.7
10 @ # 41 Arkansas            54.9
11   # 10 Georgia             34.0
12 @ # 43 Clemson             54.9
```
The Gamecocks have only a few gimmes out of conference, and maybe two solid SEC wins so a repeat of 4-8 is still possible. They *should* beat Arkansas and Clemson on the road but those are tough games, and we have them losing close ones to Florida and Tennessee in addition to Alabama (road), Oklahoma (road), and Texas A&M and Georgia (both home). But there's opportunity, too, and their expected number of wins is closer to a 7-5 result. Either way, it's most likely—but not guaranteed—that SC returns to a bowl game.
Arizona Wildcats
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #25 Off/Def: #38/#21
Returning: #61 Portal: #28 Pure Str: #23 Program Rank: #36
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.5-4.5) Bowl: 75% Conf: B12 #4

Arizona—#25 last year—stays in exactly the same spot after reasonable personnel losses and a decent Portal performance, putting them at #4 in the Big Twelve. Last year's middling offense retains QB Noah Fifita (29:6) while the solid defense loses six of the top seven tacklers but brings in starters from Nebraska, Wyoming, and UConn. Update: The team got a boost on both offense and defense with 5th-year appeals from RB Ismail Mahdi and LB Max Harris being approved. Update2: NCAA won an appeal with removes their eligibility. For now).
```
 *Arizona (9-3)   SOS #49
 1    FCS N Arizona           91.5
 2 @ # 21 Brigham Young       41.7
 3   #119 N Illinois          91.3
 4 @ # 71 Washington St       67.4
 5   # 61 Cincinnati          71.3
 6 @ # 65 West Virginia       66.4
 7   # 72 Iowa St             77.4
 8 @ #  9 Texas Tech          23.1
 9   # 28 TCU                 55.7
10   # 33 Utah                57.2
11 @ # 29 Kansas St           46.3
12   # 45 Arizona St          64.0
```
Arizona shows a 9-3 finish game-by-game but 7 or 8 wins might be more accurate. They face BYU in Provo, Texas Tech in Lubbock, and K-State in Manhattan. TCU and Utah are at home but should be close ones. Best case scenario: the Wildcats build momentum from a 6-1 (or 7-0?) start. Worst case: they end the year with a 1-4 (or 0-5) streak.
Missouri Tigers
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #26 Off/Def: #42/#18
Returning: #81 Portal: #34 Pure Str: #33 Program Rank: #23
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.3-5.7) Bowl: 59% Conf: SEC #11

Like Arizona at #25, the Missouri Tigers hold their spot at #26. Their returning personnel and Portal haul aren't quite as good, but the Missouri program is stronger and lifts their expectation back to match last year's team. Mizzou struggled at times on offense last year and the QB spot is a question mark, but 1,600 yd rusher Ahmad Hardy (16 TDs) is back—assuming full recovery from a gunshot wound—and the O-Line is loaded. The defense is wiped out, however: two key players are back and they add an Auburn transfer, but won't be a top 25 defense any more so the offense will have to improve. Update: D-Line starter Sterling Webb has since been granted another year of eligibility, which would move Mizzou into the pre-season Top 25.
```
 *Missouri  (7-5)  SOS #12
 1    FCS Ark-Pine Bluff      99.7
 2 @ # 44 Kansas              55.7
 3   #103 Troy                87.2
 4 @ # 58 Mississippi St      60.1
 5   # 34 Florida             57.3
 6   #  8 Texas A&M           30.5
 7 @ #  6 Mississippi         23.2
 8 @ # 41 Arkansas            53.2
 9   # 11 Texas               34.9
10 @ # 10 Georgia             25.2
11   # 53 Kentucky            68.3
12   # 12 Oklahoma            36.2
```
Missouri has a tough SEC schedule and playing at Kansas pre-conference adds to it; they should get that win but it's no guarantee. In the SEC they face five top 12 teams among their last 7 games, all tagged as losses, with games vs. Florida and at Arkansas that will be tough too. Despite 5 home SEC games 7-5 might even be tough to achieve, and the cumulative expectation is closer to 6-6 (with 59% bowl eligibility odds).
SMU Mustangs
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #31 Off/Def: #39/#31
Returning: #71 Portal: #38 Pure Str: #32 Program Rank: #24
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.5-4.5) Bowl: 76% Conf: ACC #3

The Mustangs look to be similar in quality to 2025, with the Portal covering some of their losses. Senior QB Kevin Jennings (3,641 yds) is the key returnee on an improving offense, while the defense is hit harder and may be down a peg. The D-Line, in particular, is a concern as all four starters are gone; the D-Line was in this situation last year, too, but brought in two FBS transfer starters whereas this year's line is composed of backups.
```
 *SMU  (10-2)    SOS #50
 1 @ # 38 Florida St          51.5
 2    FCS UC-Davis            86.4
 3 @ # 19 Louisville          39.5
 4   #128 Missouri St         92.3
 5   # 90 Boston College      81.4
 6   # 30 Virginia            55.5
 7   # 68 California          74.3
 8 @ # 81 Syracuse            70.6
 9   # 36 Virginia Tech       57.1
10   # 57 Wake Forest         68.2
11 @ #  2 Notre Dame          12.0
12 @ # 66 Stanford            65.2
```
Ranked #3 in the ACC, SMU avoids ACC#1 Miami but faces #2 Louisville on the road early. That might be their only conference loss. They do face pseudo-conference member Notre Dame, also on the road, late in the year which could impact their Playoff chances if they still have hopes at that time. Other tough games include FSU on the road opener and Virginia and Virginia Tech at home, all part of the reason the Mustangs' cumulative projected record calls for just 7 or 8 wins. The mid-section of the season is where they need to rack up the wins.
TCU Horned Frogs
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #36 Off/Def: #33/#50
Returning: #35 Portal: #57 Pure Str: #30 Program Rank: #28
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.4-4.6) Bowl: 73% Conf: B12 #5

TCU could be slightly improved in 2026 thanks mostly to returning talent. That of course doesn't include QB Josh Hoover who departs for #1 Indiana, nor top tackler Kaleb Elarms-Orr who leaves for the NFL. But a decent portion of talent is back on both sides of the ball and a few key transfers come in, enough to keep the #28 college football program at #28 for 2026. Update: That rank will slip a bit as one of those key transfers, safety Jacob Fields, was dismissed from the team.
```
 *TCU  (10-2)     SOS #47
 1 N # 78 North Carolina      74.6
 2    FCS Grambling St        98.6
 3   #107 Arkansas St         87.4
 4 @ # 52 Central Florida     56.9
 5   # 21 Brigham Young       50.8
 6 @ # 47 Baylor              56.5
 7   # 65 West Virginia       73.6
 8   # 44 Kansas              63.3
 9 @ # 25 Arizona             44.4
10   # 29 Kansas St           55.5
11   # 33 Utah                56.0
12 @ #  9 Texas Tech          21.8
```
As the #5 Big Twelve team TCU is only underdog in road games at Arizona and Texas Tech. But five other games are going to be tough along the way. Best case, the Horned Frogs are 8-0 going into Arizona; worst case, they stumble through a 5-7 season after losing all the close ones. But missing a bowl game is not likely and any finish between 7-5 and 10-2 wouldn't surprise us.
Kansas State Wildcats
2025 Results: (6-6) Str: #40 Off/Def: #32/#62
Returning: #69 Portal: #41 Pure Str: #37 Program Rank: #20
2026 Proj: 11-1 (7.8-4.2) Bowl: 76% Conf: B12 #6

K-State had a middling year finishing #40 in Strength with a 6-6 record after turning down a bowl game. New coach Collin Klein (QB from 2012) retained a lot of the offense but the defense is depleted, a bad sign since it was already subpar last year. He did ok with the Portal though, bringing in a slew of FBS transfers; all but a few were backups but it adds a lot of depth. The quality of the program (#20 in the nation) bumps their estimate up a bit, too, as their "Pure" estimate would put them pretty much where they were last year. Update: OL starter John Pastore (left tackle) is out for the season with a leg injury.
```
 *Kansas St  (11-1)   SOS #64
 1    FCS Nicholls St        95.9
 2   # 71 Washington St      74.8
 3   # 64 Tulane             73.0
 4 @ # 61 Cincinnati         61.8
 5   # 20 Houston            50.0
 6   # 44 Kansas             63.3
 7 @ # 45 Arizona St         53.1
 8 @ # 54 Colorado           57.4
 9   # 91 Oklahoma St        80.8
10 @ # 28 TCU                44.5
11   # 25 Arizona            53.7
12 @ # 72 Iowa St            68.2
```
K-State has a very favorable schedule in terms of game location. With a logjam of Big Twelve teams ranked in the 20s, the Wildcats crucially get Houston and Arizona at home, with winnable road games at ASU and Colorado. The Houston game in particular is a true 50/50 game where we give the tiebreaker to K-State only due to the home field. This puts them at 11-1 game by game. Of course, combing through all the odds their expectation is around 8-4, which mades sense with so many near-50/50 contests. The Wildcats have just a 0.4% chance to finish 12-0, but if they wins the games they "should" it could be a great year.
Virginia Cavaliers
2025 Results: (11-3) Str: #33 Off/Def: #51/#20
Returning: #76 Portal: #14 Pure Str: #17 Program Rank: #60
2026 Proj: 10-2 (8.2-3.8) Bowl: 81% Conf: ACC #4

Virginia nearly made the Playoff last year—many ACC teams can say that—but despite an 11-3 finish they only ranked #33 in Strength. They lose much of last year's squad but fantastic Portal "recruiting" effectively adds several starters back on both sides of the ball. The Cavs bring in Senior QB Beau Pribula from Missouri, WRs from UCLA and Kent State, and defensive standouts from East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Michigan. UVA's recent history prevents them from reaching our top 25 as the program ranks just 60th, making last year's results look like they might be a fluke. Time will tell!
```
 *Virginia  (10-2)     SOS #73
 1   # 55 NC State           67.0
 2    FCS Norfolk St         99.0
 3 N # 65 West Virginia      69.1
 4   #105 Delaware           86.8
 5 @ # 38 Florida St         50.5
 6   # 81 Syracuse           77.5
 7 @ # 27 SMU                44.5
 8   # 42 Duke               62.2
 9 @ # 57 Wake Forest        59.1
10   # 68 California         73.5
11   # 78 North Carolina     78.0
12 @ # 36 Virginia Tech      47.9
```
Virginia could make another run at the Playoff. The Cavs avoid Miami and Louisville, and while they do face SMU and Virginia Tech on the road, those are the only two losses we pick for them. Other close calls (at FSU) and lacking gimme games puts their expected win total around 8, however. They outperformed their Strength last year, so we'll see how it goes.
UCLA Bruins
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #74 Off/Def: #73/#71
Returning: #59 Portal: #6 Pure Str: #20 Program Rank: #53
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 65% Conf: B10 #9

UCLA suffered through a 3-9 season last year but we see much better times ahead, chiefly due to a top ten Transfer Portal ranking. New coach Bob Chesney is pulling a Curt Cignetti, raiding last year's James Madison team (#30 Strength) for 10 players, six of whom are probable starters: RB Wayne Knight, WR Landon Ellis, Riley Robell and Carter Sweazie on the O-Line, Sahir West on the D-Line, and DJ Barksdale at nickel back. Other transfer starters come from Oklahoma, South Alabama, California, and Utah. This is a wholly different team.
```
 *UCLA  (9-3)    SOS #37
 1 @ # 68 California          64.6
 2   # 62 San Diego St        71.3
 3   # 77 Purdue              76.9
 4 @ # 39 Maryland            50.1
 5 @ #  3 Oregon              15.3
 6   # 51 Wisconsin           64.0
 7   # 60 Michigan St         70.4
 8   #120 Nevada              90.4
 9 @ # 46 Minnesota           54.3
10   # 32 Illinois            54.9
11 @ # 15 Michigan            30.2
12   #  7 Southern Cal        28.2
```
While we don't see Cignetti-type magic for the Bruins, we do see immediate results as we favor them in nine games, pretty impressive for the #9 team in the conference. Some of that is scheduling luck: Maryland is probably the exact toughest team they should beat on the road, Minnesota is another close road win, and they get Illinois at home. They should lose to Oregon, Michigan, and USC, and given all the close games a 7-5 finish might be more realistic. But that's a big step up from 3-9.
Illinois Fighting Illini
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #23 Off/Def: #25/#28
Returning: #73 Portal: #36 Pure Str: #31 Program Rank: #32
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 66% Conf: B10 #10

Illinois may be down a step from last year's model due to personnel losses on defense that they don't claw back with the Portal. Their offense might improve though as they add QB Katin Houser from Michigan State, O-Line starters from Wisconsin and Colorado State, and a WR from Florida Atlantic.
```
 *Illinois  (9-3)    SOS #34
 1   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  92.2
 2   # 42 Duke                61.3
 3    FCS Southern Illinois   87.6
 4 @ #  4 Ohio State          16.0
 5   # 77 Purdue              77.1
 6 @ # 60 Michigan St         61.0
 7   #  3 Oregon              21.8
 8 @ # 39 Maryland            50.1
 9   # 23 Nebraska            51.2
10 @ # 31 UCLA                45.1
11   # 37 Iowa                58.3
12 @ # 49 Northwestern        55.2
```
Illinois has a manageable schedule, avoiding the best teams other than Ohio State and Oregon. Best-case, they edge Maryland and Nebraska and finish with tight wins over Iowa and Northwestern. The UCLA game is a tossup too since the Bruins are a wildcard team this year. So 10-2 is possible, but 7-5 is more likely given the slew of 50/50 games here.
Utah Utes
2025 Results: (11-2) Str: #7 Off/Def: #5/#19
Returning: #90 Portal: #68 Pure Str: #53 Program Rank: #15
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.3-4.7) Bowl: 71% Conf: B12 #7

Of last year's best teams, Utah falls the most in our rankings. The Utes finished a stunning #7 in Strength last year at 11-2, missing the Playoff somehow in the process. They lose the vast majority of talent on both Offense and Defense and don't cover those losses well with transfers in Morgan Scalley's first year as head coach. Saving them from a disaster is the strength of the program, which lifts them from #53 to #33. Still, it's a big downturn in a clear rebuilding year.
```
 *Utah  (8-4)     SOS #57
 1    FCS Idaho               88.1
 2   # 41 Arkansas            60.7
 3   # 80 Utah St             77.6
 4 @ # 72 Iowa St             67.0
 5   # 44 Kansas              62.3
 6 @ # 54 Colorado            56.5
 7   # 20 Houston             49.1
 8 @ # 61 Cincinnati          61.3
 9   # 21 Brigham Young       49.2
10 @ # 25 Arizona             42.8
11 @ # 28 TCU                 44.0
12   # 65 West Virginia       72.6
```
Helping out is a soft schedule. Utah avoids Texas Tech but plays the next four best Big Twelve teams, and those are their projected losses. Both Houston and BYU are winnable home games, however, keeping their cumulative projection at 7.3 wins. Utah takes a big drop but should have a soft landing as Scalley—who has been part of the coaching staff for nearly 20 years—provides program continuity.
Florida Gators
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #39 Off/Def: #60/#25
Returning: #67 Portal: #33 Pure Str: #34 Program Rank: #30
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.9-6.1) Bowl: 54% Conf: SEC #12

Florida has the usual Florida Gators problem: they're good but their schedule is too tough. Last year's 4-8 team was #39 in Strength, and this year's team places #34 from a slight Portal lift. The 2025 offense was tepid, as is par lately for the Gators, and questions remain at QB. The defense should be sound again. First year coach Jon Sumrall (from Tulane) provides a new look but he has his work cut out for him.
```
 *Florida  (5-7)     SOS #9
 1   # 97 Florida Atlantic    84.4
 2    FCS Campbell            96.8
 3 @ # 40 Auburn              49.9
 4   #  6 Mississippi         29.1
 5 @ # 26 Missouri            42.7
 6   # 24 South Carolina      51.0
 7 @ # 11 Texas               23.6
 8 @ # 10 Georgia             22.6
 9   # 12 Oklahoma            33.7
10 @ # 53 Kentucky            55.9
11   # 22 Vanderbilt          51.0
12 @ # 38 Florida St          48.8
```
The Gators play in the SEC and always schedule FSU, meaning their SOS is typically in the top ten. This year is no exception and they get the unlucky draw of Auburn, Missouri, and FSU on the road which suggests three close losses. Add in Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma and that's seven losses. Their "wins" include tough games with South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy, which means 2-10 is not out of the question. Neither is 8-4, but 6-6 is more realistic and is indeed their expected total, with a 54% chance to go 6-6 or better.
Pittsburgh Panthers
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #29 Off/Def: #20/#48
Returning: #13 Portal: #80 Pure Str: #27 Program Rank: #43
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.6-4.4) Bowl: 76% Conf: ACC #5

Pitt pretty much treads water in our projection this year, down from #29 last season. Their resilience is due almost entirely from player retention as their Portal haul was meager. They return starters at QB, RB, and three on the O-line where they do add some good depth from the Portal (including one from Ivy League's Penn). On defense they return about the same amount, not enough to boost their mediocre D.
```
 *Pittsburgh  (9-3)   SOS #62
 1   # 83 Miami OH            77.4
 2   # 52 Central Florida     63.5
 3   # 81 Syracuse            76.9
 4    FCS Bucknell            97.9
 5 @ # 36 Virginia Tech       45.3
 6   # 78 North Carolina      76.1
 7 @ # 90 Boston College      71.2
 8 @ # 13 Miami FL            27.6
 9   # 56 Georgia Tech        65.3
10   # 38 Florida St          57.7
11 @ # 19 Louisville          37.4
12 @ # 68 California          63.5
```
Pitt's soft schedule comes from playing in the ACC and scheduling Miami of Ohio and Bucknell. The Panthers should lose three road games—Virginia Tech, Miami FL, and Louisville—and handle the rest, but there are no real blowout wins on the slate (save Bucknell). This slips their cumulative projection to 8-4 or 7-5, but the chance for a much better season is there.
Virginia Tech Hokies
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #79 Off/Def: #74/#75
Returning: #2 Portal: #52 Pure Str: #24 Program Rank: #59
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.2-4.8) Bowl: 70% Conf: ACC #6

Last year's 3-9 team was just #79 in Strength, but under new coach James Franklin Virginia Tech returns a bigger percentage of last year's talent than any team except Notre Dame and their Portal additions aren't inconsequential, either. The Hokies' top WR and RB return along with four starters on the offensive line. Franklin brings in a QB and TE from Penn State and a WR from Duke. The defense is largely intact, too. Tech was poor on both sides of the ball last year but should be better across the board, even reaching top 25 potential before consideration of the program's woes (#59) bring the projection back down to earth.
```
 *Virginia Tech  (9-3)   SOS #55
 1    FCS VMI                 99.0
 2   # 87 Old Dominion        78.1
 3 @ # 39 Maryland            47.7
 4 @ # 90 Boston College      71.2
 5   # 35 Pittsburgh          54.7
 6 @ # 68 California          63.0
 7   # 56 Georgia Tech        65.0
 8 @ # 43 Clemson             50.3
 9 @ # 27 SMU                 42.9
10   # 66 Stanford            70.6
11 @ # 13 Miami FL            27.6
12   # 30 Virginia            52.1
```
Can James Franklin engineer a 1-year turnaround for the Hokies? Yes: We give the team a 70% chance at bowl eligibility. They play Big Ten's Maryland on the road which is unfortunate (it would be a win at home) but get Pitt at home which balances that. Clemson on the road is a tossup they might win, as is the home finale vs. Virginia. In all just SMU and Miami look like conference losses for the Hokies, and they could flip last year's 3-9 to a 9-3 finish. But all the close games add up to a tempered 7-5 expectation.
Iowa Hawkeyes
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #15 Off/Def: #36/#8
Returning: #53 Portal: #116 Pure Str: #57 Program Rank: #21
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.5-5.5) Bowl: 63% Conf: B10 #11

Iowa quietly finished #15 in Strength last year, making few waves (except The Wave of course) as they lost close games to all the good teams (Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, USC) on their schedule. As usual the defense carried the day but this time the offense wasn't a disaster. They lose running QB Mark Gronowski and are once again searching for a QB who can throw the ball. Both the offense and defense have big losses and Kirk Ferentz doesn't believe much in the Portal so here they are, down to #37. The program's resiliency (#21) will keep things from getting out of hand but don't expect a top 25 season, or an improved offense.
```
 *Iowa  (7-5)     SOS #36
 1   #119 N Illinois          88.3
 2   # 72 Iowa St             72.1
 3    FCS Northern Iowa       92.3
 4 @ # 15 Michigan            27.2
 5   #  4 Ohio State          19.9
 6 @ # 14 Washington          26.3
 7 @ # 46 Minnesota           50.3
 8   # 51 Wisconsin           61.4
 9 @ # 49 Northwestern        52.5
10   # 77 Purdue              74.1
11 @ # 32 Illinois            41.7
12   # 23 Nebraska            48.7
```
Iowa never really falls too far, no matter how bleak things look or how bad the offense gets. They should beat a very faded Iowa State this year and FCS Northern Iowa to take the state title at least, and another good year might unfold. But they will likely follow last year's pattern of losing to the best teams–Michigan, Ohio State, Washington—and possibly splitting the tough games vs. the middling ones (Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska). That sets up a 7-5 finish, or even a dip to 6-6. Either way, another year, and another bowl game, seems to be in store for Kirk Ferentz's 28th (!) season.
Florida State Seminoles
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #22 Off/Def: #21/#35
Returning: #91 Portal: #30 Pure Str: #41 Program Rank: #33
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.5-5.5) Bowl: 62% Conf: ACC #7

Early last year FSU looked like world beater after topping Alabama and crushing two other, much weaker opponents, but then the close losses started adding up and the team unraveled. Even at 5-7 they finished #22 in Strength, but the damage was done and most of the team departs. Portal power pulls FSU back from the brink, and even though they drop to #38 their outlook is probably better record-wise. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a key transfer, along with 2 O-Line starters from Auburn.
```
 *Florida St  (6-6)   SOS #40
 1   #118 New Mexico St       88.3
 2   # 27 SMU                 48.5
 3 @ # 18 Alabama             31.9
 4    FCS Central Arkansas    92.0
 5   # 30 Virginia            49.5
 6 @ # 19 Louisville          33.9
 7 @ # 13 Miami FL            25.0
 8   # 43 Clemson             57.1
 9 @ # 90 Boston College      68.4
10 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          42.3
11   # 55 NC State            61.9
12   # 34 Florida             51.2
```
If FSU weathers the early storm, things will be ok for the team but if not it will be too late for head coach Mike Norvell. The early schedule looks daunting as they welcome SMU at home then travel to what could be an ugly revenge game at Alabama. Losses at Louisville and Miami could leave the team in an unrecoverable funk at 2-5, and that might prompt FSU to pull the plug on Norvell. He probably needs wins in tossup games vs. SMU and Virginia to keep his job past the mid-point of the season, and to beat Clemson and Florida later in the year to be invited back next year. We see a 6-6 or 7-5 finish, and those key games are real tossups so Norvell's future is very uncertain; how FSU deals with a $50+ million buyout may be the deciding factor.
Maryland Terrapins
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #70 Off/Def: #71/#64
Returning: #5 Portal: #66 Pure Str: #29 Program Rank: #57
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.1-5.9) Bowl: 57% Conf: B10 #12

Maryland retains more of its talent that almost anyone, which should lead to a dramatically better team in 2026 and a bowl game. They return starting QB Malik Washington and RB DeJuan Williams and add transfers from Old Dominion and Texas State to bolster the WR corps and O-Line. The defense returns the bulk of starters including LB Daniel Wingate who had over 100 tackles last year.
```
 *Maryland  (6-6)    SOS #26
 1    FCS Hampton             98.0
 2 @ #108 Connecticut         77.8
 3   # 36 Virginia Tech       52.3
 4   # 31 UCLA                49.9
 5 @ # 23 Nebraska            37.5
 6 @ #  4 Ohio State          13.5
 7   # 48 Rutgers             59.9
 8   # 32 Illinois            49.9
 9 @ # 77 Purdue              65.0
10   # 51 Wisconsin           60.1
11 @ #  7 Southern Cal        17.5
12   #  5 Penn State          23.7
```
The Terrapins should see results but have a tough path due to scheduling Virginia Tech. We give them that one but not the 50/50 games vs. UCLA and Illinois, showing that with some luck the Terps could go 8-4. 6-6 is more likely with a 57% bowl chance.
Auburn Tigers
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #27 Off/Def: #52/#14
Returning: #125 Portal: #17 Pure Str: #50 Program Rank: #31
2026 Proj: 6-6 (5.8-6.2) Bowl: 52% Conf: SEC #13

Auburn's turnover is huge, with monster losses on offense and defense, but Portal transfers will help them stay afloat. It won't make them a better team than last season but they might make a bowl game this time around. First year coach Alex Golesh (ex-USF) had to remake the team from the ground up, with only RB Jeremiah Cobb back on offense. They add transfer starters from South Florida at QB, WR (x2), and O-Line. The defense isn't hit as bad and was solid last year, so it might pass muster.
```
 *Auburn  (6-6)    SOS #17
 1   # 47 Baylor              58.0
 2   #137 Southern Miss       92.8
 3   # 34 Florida             50.1
 4   # 22 Vanderbilt          45.2
 5 @ # 16 Tennessee           28.4
 6 @ # 10 Georgia             18.1
 7   # 17 LSU                 36.7
 8 @ #  6 Mississippi         17.4
 9   # 41 Arkansas            55.8
10 @ # 58 Mississippi St      51.9
11    FCS Samford             94.4
12 @ # 18 Alabama             30.9
```
As the #13 SEC team Auburn faces a tough slate. Adding Baylor doesn't help but they should win that, and maybe edge Florida in a 50/50 game. Getting to six wins will be a chore though and if things go as expected the Tigers won't be bowl-eligible until beating Samford in November. And that will require winning some close games. There's not much leeway, hence Auburn's 52% bowl odds.
Arkansas Razorbacks
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #52 Off/Def: #17/#87
Returning: #110 Portal: #13 Pure Str: #38 Program Rank: #41
2026 Proj: 2-10 (5.3-6.7) Bowl: 43% Conf: SEC #14

With a top ten SOS, the deck is stacked against the Razorbacks who went 2-10 last year and lose most of their talent but land some big fish from the Portal. Last year's offense was solid and with transfers from Memphis and LSU, and O-line starters incoming from UCF and Louisiana-Lafayette, they might be just as good. The defense was weak and will probably remain so despite some additions there, too. Overall the team should be better in Ryan Silverfield's first season.
```
 *Arkansas  (2-10)   SOS #7
 1    FCS North Alabama       94.7
 2 @ # 33 Utah                39.3
 3   # 10 Georgia             25.4
 4   #115 Tulsa               86.6
 5 @ #  8 Texas A&M           16.8
 6   # 16 Tennessee           36.3
 7 @ # 22 Vanderbilt          35.6
 8   # 26 Missouri            46.8
 9 @ # 40 Auburn              44.2
10   # 24 South Carolina      45.1
11 @ # 11 Texas               19.8
12   # 17 LSU                 36.7
```
A top ten schedule stacks the deck against the Razorbacks, and another 2-10 season might unfold. North Alabama is a win, as is Tulsa at home. Beyond that, there's not much hope except for upsets, and they might get a few (or three, going 5-7) but their bowl odds are just 43%.
Duke Blue Devils
2025 Results: (9-5) Str: #45 Off/Def: #16/#85
Returning: #82 Portal: #29 Pure Str: #40 Program Rank: #42
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 66% Conf: ACC #8

Duke is yet another ACC team that almost made the Playoff last year. They won the ACC but they had 5 losses and that was too much for the Committee to stomach. Production was great behind QB Darian Mensah but the defense was porous. The offense will still thrive as player departures are filled pretty well from the Portal (Walter Eget from San Jose State takes over at QB), but the defense may be even worse.
```
 *Duke  (9-3)   SOS #59
 1   # 64 Tulane              66.1
 2 @ # 32 Illinois            38.7
 3   # 66 Stanford            67.5
 4    FCS William & Mary      91.0
 5 @ # 56 Georgia Tech        51.1
 6   # 78 North Carolina      72.1
 7 @ # 30 Virginia            37.8
 8   # 90 Boston College      75.3
 9 @ # 55 NC State            50.2
10 @ # 13 Miami FL            23.8
11   # 43 Clemson             54.5
12 @ # 57 Wake Forest         51.6
```
Duke gets a rematch with Tulane who beat them last year and should win this time around, but the Devils play at Illinois (they lost at home 45-17 last year). To go 9-3 they need close wins over Georgia Tech, NC State, Clemson, and Wake Forest, all 50/50 games. The cumulative result of 7-5 seems more likely.
Clemson Tigers
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #41 Off/Def: #55/#36
Returning: #58 Portal: #78 Pure Str: #64 Program Rank: #26
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 64% Conf: ACC #9

Clemson only rates as the #26 program in college football these days, with critics pointing to Dabo Swinney's reluctance to use the Portal heavily. The team returns a decent amount of talent from last year's #41 Strength Tigers but doesn't bring in many transfers of note. Their rating doesn't fall much due to Program durability; will that continue to be the case? The big question mark this year is at QB as Cade Klubnik departs and Swinney turns to his bench in old-school fashion.
```
 *Clemson  (6-6)   SOS #52
 1 @ # 17 LSU                 27.6
 2   #101 Georgia Southern    80.4
 3   # 78 North Carolina      71.5
 4 @ # 68 California          57.6
 5   # 13 Miami FL            31.7
 6    FCS Charleston Southern 96.1
 7   # 36 Virginia Tech       49.7
 8 @ # 38 Florida St          42.9
 9 @ # 81 Syracuse            63.1
10   # 56 Georgia Tech        59.9
11 @ # 42 Duke                45.5
12   # 24 South Carolina      45.1
```
Clemson's non-conference season is tough: their trip to LSU looks like a loss, and we have them underdog at home vs. South Carolina. The ACC schedule, too, is full of tight games where the Tigers are slight underdogs. Still, even if they lose close ones vs. Virginia Tech, at FSU, and at Duke, they make a bowl game, so that's almost the worse-case scenario. 7-5 is more likely, even if it doesn't remotely measure up to fan demands. On the upside, very few games look out of reach.
Kansas Jayhawks
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #62 Off/Def: #44/#73
Returning: #94 Portal: #22 Pure Str: #51 Program Rank: #34
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 63% Conf: B12 #8

Kansas, like many lower-level Power conference programs, loses a lot to the Portal and then tries to claw back what they can to reload. On offense they pick up RB Dylan Edwards from K-State, while their new QB will come from in-house. On Defense they pick up starters from Tulane and BC. Despite the Jayhawks' long bad spell from 2010-2021 they now rank as the #34 program due to recent years' results and should be better than last year.
```
 *Kansas  (8-4)    SOS #54
 1    FCS LIU                 96.5
 2   # 26 Missouri            44.3
 3 N # 45 Arizona St          50.1
 4   #133 Middle Tennessee St 90.2
 5 @ # 33 Utah                37.7
 6 @ # 29 Kansas St           36.7
 7   # 47 Baylor              56.7
 8 @ # 28 TCU                 36.7
 9   # 52 Central Florida     57.0
10 @ # 65 West Virginia       56.5
11   # 21 Brigham Young       41.6
12 @ # 91 Oklahoma St         65.4
```
After falling just short the last 2 seasons Kansas should be back in a bowl game this year but it will be close. They'll need to win tossups vs. Arizona (in London), Baylor, and West Virginia, but at 7-5 game by game they have some leeway, and could steal wins over Missouri or even BYU at home. Only Utah, K-State, and TCU—all on the road, look out of reach—so 9-3 is a possibility and 7-5 is fully realistic.
Arizona State Sun Devils
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #46 Off/Def: #65/#33
Returning: #127 Portal: #8 Pure Str: #46 Program Rank: #38
2026 Proj: 5-7 (6.2-5.8) Bowl: 58% Conf: B12 #9

The Sun Devils are hit VERY hard by an exodus of players, returning only a few starters total before completely reloading via the Portal. Unfortunately the reload is not as complete on offense where they need the help. They get Cutter Boley from Kentucky at QB but the O-Line is decimated. The defense could be better than last year, though, with talent incoming from Michigan State, Baylor, LSU, and Kansas among others.
```
 *Arizona St  (5-7)   SOS #33
 1    FCS Morgan St           97.1
 2 @ #  8 Texas A&M           16.2
 3 N # 44 Kansas              49.9
 4   # 47 Baylor              58.2
 5   #106 Hawai`i             82.3
 6 @ #  9 Texas Tech          15.9
 7   # 29 Kansas St           46.9
 8 @ # 21 Brigham Young       32.4
 9   # 54 Colorado            59.7
10 @ # 52 Central Florida     48.1
11   # 91 Oklahoma St         75.1
12 @ # 25 Arizona             36.0
```
ASU's new-look team faces a rough schedule, starting with Texas A&M on the road. They get Texas Tech on the road too, as well as both BYU and Arizona. They play Kansas in London in a toss-up game which we give to Kansas who is ranked one spot above the Sun Devils! So you see how close to 6-6 they are, and with other close "losses" to K-State and UCF, the Sun Devils end up with a 58% chance to 6-6 or better.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #67 Off/Def: #77/#49
Returning: #8 Portal: #102 Pure Str: #47 Program Rank: #48
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.7-6.3) Bowl: 52% Conf: B10 #13

We have Minnesota improving solidly from last year—in Strength if not in results—and not via Portal transfers where they register minimally. Instead, they return last year's team more intact than all but 7 other programs. The offense has QB Drake Lindsey back as a Sophomore and the top RB and some top WRs and OL return as well. On defense 8 of the top 12 tacklers are back.
```
 *Minnesota  (5-7)   SOS #24
 1    FCS Eastern Illinois    95.2
 2   # 58 Mississippi St      58.2
 3   #123 Akron               86.5
 4 @ # 14 Washington          21.8
 5   # 15 Michigan            30.3
 6 @ # 77 Purdue              60.2
 7   # 37 Iowa                49.7
 8 @ #  1 Indiana              6.2
 9   # 31 UCLA                45.8
10 @ #  5 Penn State          15.0
11   # 49 Northwestern        55.4
12 @ # 51 Wisconsin           46.2
```
Getting better doesn't mean a better record though. Washington, Michigan, Indiana, and Penn State all look like losses, and they'll need to beat either Iowa, UCLA, or Wisconsin to get a 6th win. They have a 52% chance of doing it. They outperformed last year and the team generally gets to a bowl so it probably happens again.
Baylor Bears
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #68 Off/Def: #35/#102
Returning: #117 Portal: #10 Pure Str: #44 Program Rank: #51
2026 Proj: 4-8 (6.0-6.0) Bowl: 54% Conf: B12 #10

Baylor is another team that loses almost its entire squad and brings in replacements via the Portal with a top ten haul. This is most stark on offense, where the Bears had good results last season. They lose their QB and entire receiving corps and most of the O-Line, but grab a QB from Florida, a WR from Oklahoma, and linemen from 4 Group of Five (now Six) schools. The defense, pretty woeful last year, does much the same.
```
 *Baylor  (4-8)    SOS #38
 1 @ # 40 Auburn              42.0
 2    FCS Prairie View A&M    96.7
 3   # 98 Louisiana Tech      78.3
 4   # 54 Colorado            56.7
 5 @ # 45 Arizona St          41.9
 6   # 28 TCU                 43.5
 7 @ # 44 Kansas              43.3
 8 @ # 52 Central Florida     45.4
 9   # 72 Iowa St             67.4
10 @ # 21 Brigham Young       30.4
11   #  9 Texas Tech          20.7
12 @ # 20 Houston             30.5
```
By the numbers Baylor ranks higher in Strength but actual results may vary, as we see only 4 wins on the schedule game-by-game. Traveling to Auburn is one factor, and Baylor has a stretch of what could be four closes losses mid-season. They end with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston, so they'd better be 6-3 at that point. 6-6 is exactly what the cumulative odds suggest, with a 54% chance to get there. A win in the opener would be good insurance.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #65 Off/Def: #31/#86
Returning: #51 Portal: #39 Pure Str: #39 Program Rank: #61
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 49% Conf: B10 #14

Rutgers has decent returning talent on offense, while on defense they supplement pretty well with Portal transfers. The result could be an improved team but one that ranks just 14th in the Big Ten. They do get QB Dylan Lonergan from Boston College on offense, and on defense they supplement the D-Line with Tulsa and Toledo talent.
```
 *Rutgers  (4-8)    SOS #21
 1   #138 Massachusetts       93.4
 2 @ # 90 Boston College      63.5
 3   #  7 Southern Cal        20.7
 4    FCS Howard              96.6
 5   #  1 Indiana              9.5
 6 @ # 39 Maryland            40.1
 7 @ # 49 Northwestern        45.5
 8   # 15 Michigan            30.5
 9 @ # 51 Wisconsin           46.1
10   # 23 Nebraska            42.1
11 @ #  5 Penn State          14.4
12   # 60 Michigan St         61.1
```
14th out of 18 Big Ten teams is a tough spot. Rutgers also gets Northwestern and Wisconsin on the road, probably turning those games from wins into losses leading to a 4-8 projection game by game. The numbers suggest 6-6 as the most likely outcome, but the odds come up just short at 49%. Like last year, it's gonna be close.
Northwestern Wildcats
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #49 Off/Def: #58/#41
Returning: #23 Portal: #64 Pure Str: #35 Program Rank: #67
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.0-7.0) Bowl: 42% Conf: B10 #15

Northwestern relies on returning talent for the most part, and its enough to tread water in Strength but not enough to overcome a killer schedule. On offense, the Wildcats are set at RB and WR and they grab Aiden Chiles from Michigan State at QB. On defense 6 starters return. What sounds like improvement is mitigated by the Wildcats program strength (#67) however.
```
 *Northwestern  (5-7)    SOS #10
 1    FCS South Dakota St     64.1
 2   # 54 Colorado            56.7
 3 @ #  1 Indiana              5.7
 4   #  5 Penn State          20.3
 5   #134 Ball St             89.2
 6 @ # 60 Michigan St         51.2
 7   # 48 Rutgers             54.5
 8 @ #  3 Oregon               9.8
 9   # 37 Iowa                47.6
10 @ #  4 Ohio State          10.6
11 @ # 46 Minnesota           44.6
12   # 32 Illinois            44.8
```
The Wildcats play a top ten schedule, and not because of any killer non-conference games. They do host Colorado which should be a close one, and South Dakota State is about the toughest FCS opponent they could schedule. But it's Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, and Ohio State that are the real culprits. They need a close win at MSU just to go 5-7, which is why their bowl odds are only 42%.
Boise State Broncos
2025 Results: (9-5) Str: #59 Off/Def: #53/#56
Returning: #20 Portal: #105 Pure Str: #55 Program Rank: #39
2026 Proj: 11-1 (7.3-4.7) Bowl: 71% Conf: P12 #1

Boise State had an off year in 2025 but they held on to enough players to potentially make 2026 a lot better as they join the new-look Pac-12. The offense is looking good with a returning QB and RB but the WR corps is depleted. The defense is not in as good of shape. Boise State's program strength pulls them up a bit and they are our highest-rated non-Power Conference team at #50!
```
 *Boise St  (11-1)    SOS #79
 1 @ #  3 Oregon               9.6
 2   # 63 Memphis             61.2
 3    FCS South Dakota        77.5
 4 @ # 92 Western Michigan    63.6
 5   # 80 Utah St             69.1
 6 @ # 70 Fresno St           54.1
 7 @ # 71 Washington St       55.1
 8   # 73 Texas State         66.3
 9 @ #113 Colorado St         76.2
10   # 93 Oregon St           72.1
11   # 62 San Diego St        61.8
12 @ # 80 Utah St*            59.9
```
Game by game, Boise's only loss should be the opener at Oregon. After that their toughest tests are road games at Fresno and Washington State. That puts them at 11-1 and winning the Pac-12 puts them on the Playoff map. The cumulative odds suggest a more sober 7-5, so somewhere in between the two is likely. Their odds of going undefeated are lower than 0.1%.
Wisconsin Badgers
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #56 Off/Def: #105/#10
Returning: #101 Portal: #26 Pure Str: #54 Program Rank: #44
2026 Proj: 6-6 (5.7-6.3) Bowl: 51% Conf: B10 #16

The transfer Portal taketh away, then giveth back as Wisconsin rebuilds the whole team. They needed big help on offense where they were atrocious last year and can only get better under Colton Joseph from Old Dominion at QB, while the defense was top ten and probably can't maintain that. That said, the D will doubtless remain the team's strong point.
```
 *Wisconsin  (6-6)    SOS #28
 1   #  2 Notre Dame          11.1
 2    FCS Western Illinois    96.3
 3   #110 Eastern Michigan    83.0
 4 @ #  5 Penn State          14.2
 5   # 60 Michigan St         61.0
 6 @ # 31 UCLA                36.0
 7   #  7 Southern Cal        20.4
 8 @ # 37 Iowa                38.6
 9   # 48 Rutgers             54.0
10 @ # 39 Maryland            40.0
11 @ # 77 Purdue              59.9
12   # 46 Minnesota           53.8
```
The Badgers had a killer schedule last year but this year it's quite a bit better. Not in the pre-conference season—instead of Alabama they play Notre Dame—but they don't play Indiana or Oregon this year. Two early cupcakes should give them just enough to reach 6-6, though. It will be close—51%, so the odds say—and they might be 4-6 before the Purdue and Minnesota must-win games.
Central Florida Knights
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #77 Off/Def: #91/#55
Returning: #44 Portal: #48 Pure Str: #49 Program Rank: #50
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.6-5.4) Bowl: 62% Conf: B12 #11

UCF uses a mix of returning talent and Portal pickups to improve from #77 to #52. The Knights get senior QB Alonza Barnett from James Madison while returning their key receivers. They should be better on both offense and defense in Scott Frost's 2nd year in his 2nd stint at UCF.
```
 *UCF *Central Florida (6-6)  SOS #58
 1    FCS Bethune-Cookman     97.4
 2 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          36.5
 3   #122 Georgia St          85.4
 4   # 28 TCU                 43.2
 5 @ # 20 Houston             30.7
 6 @ # 91 Oklahoma St         63.5
 7   # 21 Brigham Young       39.6
 8   # 47 Baylor              54.6
 9 @ # 44 Kansas              43.0
10   # 45 Arizona St          51.9
11   # 72 Iowa St             66.6
12 @ # 54 Colorado            46.6
```
The Knights are #11 in the Big Twelve but should reach a bowl game despite a loss at Pitt in the pre-conference season. They need to beat Baylor and Arizona State at home, but if they go into Colorado 5-6 they still have hope. The odds suggest 7-5 is the most likely outcome.
Kentucky Wildcats
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #55 Off/Def: #64/#46
Returning: #107 Portal: #23 Pure Str: #60 Program Rank: #45
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.6-7.4) Bowl: 36% Conf: SEC #15

Kentucky was a decent team last year and went 5-7. They track about the same this year but a 2-10 finish might be their fate based on their schedule. The team loses most of its starters but replenishes, as lower-level Power conference teams do, via the Portal. They get a QB from Notre Dame and rebuild the O-Line via Ohio State and Tennessee. The defense is similarly rebuilt from less-prominent programs.
```
 *Kentucky  (2-10)    SOS #8
 1    FCS Youngstown St       83.5
 2   # 18 Alabama             35.0
 3 @ #  8 Texas A&M           13.5
 4   # 99 South Alabama       77.1
 5 @ # 24 South Carolina      31.4
 6   # 17 LSU                 31.3
 7 @ # 12 Oklahoma            17.1
 8   # 22 Vanderbilt          40.0
 9 @ # 16 Tennessee           23.3
10   # 34 Florida             44.2
11 @ # 26 Missouri            31.7
12   # 19 Louisville          35.8
```
The Wildcats can't escape the SEC schedule though, which shows wins over Youngstown State and South Alabama and that's it. The cumulative odds suggest 2 or 3 upset wins, with Vandy and Florida home games the most likely, but a bowl game is a long shot.
Colorado Buffaloes
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #84 Off/Def: #81/#79
Returning: #121 Portal: #3 Pure Str: #43 Program Rank: #63
2026 Proj: 3-9 (5.7-6.3) Bowl: 51% Conf: B12 #12

Deion Sanders' Buffaloes are crushed with departures from a #84 Strength team, but he works his Portal magic to bring the squad to a competitive level and possibly a bowl game. Sanders' Portal haul ranks #3 in the nation with offensive transfers from Texas, Georgia, and Alabama, plus more on the rebuilt defense.
```
 *Colorado  (3-9)   SOS #46
 1 @ # 56 Georgia Tech        44.7
 2    FCS Weber St            88.0
 3 @ # 49 Northwestern        43.3
 4 @ # 47 Baylor              43.3
 5   #  9 Texas Tech          19.8
 6   # 33 Utah                43.5
 7 @ # 91 Oklahoma St         62.4
 8   # 29 Kansas St           42.6
 9 @ # 45 Arizona St          40.3
10   # 20 Houston             37.3
11 @ # 61 Cincinnati          49.5
12   # 52 Central Florida     53.4
```
Game by game there are just 3 wins here: Weber State, Oklahoma State, and UCF. But look at all the 40%+ games and you can see how their cumulative projection—just barely—calls for 6 wins, at 51% certainty of bowl eligibility. Cincinnati on the road is one obvious upset win candidate, but they'll need to pull off several of them.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #37 Off/Def: #28/#60
Returning: #95 Portal: #40 Pure Str: #58 Program Rank: #49
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.6-5.4) Bowl: 62% Conf: ACC #10

NC State had to go to the Portal to shore up their offense and defense, and given last year's numbers the former might be decent while the latter will be even poorer. They return starting QB CJ Bailey and bring in help on the O-Line and at WR; on defense they almost completely rebuild. The result is a sizable downgrade from last year's #37 ranking. Update: CB Jamel Johnson is one of the many players who regained eligibility, then lost it with an appeal from the NCAA, with final status unknown. We assume these players will not play this year.
```
 *NC State  (7-5)    SOS #55
 1 @ # 30 Virginia            33.0
 2    FCS Richmond            90.2
 3 @ # 22 Vanderbilt          30.7
 4   #116 Appalachian St      83.3
 5   # 19 Louisville          36.0
 6   # 57 Wake Forest         56.2
 7 @ # 66 Stanford            53.1
 8   # 68 California          62.8
 9   # 42 Duke                49.8
10   # 81 Syracuse            67.2
11 @ # 38 Florida St          38.1
12 @ # 78 North Carolina      57.8
```
NC State should still get to a bowl game. They show a few close wins, Wake Forest at home and Stanford and UNC on the road, but also a close loss (Duke). They won't have to win all the close ones to reach 6-6.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #38 Off/Def: #37/#51
Returning: #78 Portal: #70 Pure Str: #62 Program Rank: #46
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 51% Conf: ACC #11

Georgia Tech was yet another ACC team that was in the running for the Playoff down to the wire. They neither held on to their talent nor replaced it with transfers very effectively so the Yellow Jackets probably won't be in the hunt this season. They lose running QB Haynes King and most of the receivers and O-Line, but do bring in RB Justice Haynes from Michigan. The defense was mediocre last year and may be down a bit with just 3 of the top 9 tacklers returning, though the top two are back.
```
 *Georgia Tech  (5-7)  SOS: 41
 1   # 54 Colorado            55.3
 2   # 16 Tennessee           31.2
 3    FCS Mercer              82.4
 4 @ # 66 Stanford            52.6
 5   # 42 Duke                48.9
 6 @ # 36 Virginia Tech       35.0
 7   # 90 Boston College      71.0
 8 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          34.8
 9   # 19 Louisville          36.5
10 @ # 43 Clemson             40.1
11   # 57 Wake Forest         55.7
12 @ # 10 Georgia             14.7
```
Georgia Tech projects to 5-7 but their odds of reaching 6-6 stand just above 50%. They have a 23% chance of going 5-7 and 23.4% chance of 6-6. That's close. Games vs. Colorado, Stanford, and Wake Forest become must-wins, and they can't miss the opportunity to beat Duke at home.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #53 Off/Def: #69/#37
Returning: #52 Portal: #51 Pure Str: #45 Program Rank: #70
2026 Proj: 5-7 (6.1-5.9) Bowl: 56% Conf: ACC #12

Wake Forest had a poor offense last year and almost no one returns; even the O-Line loses 4 starters. They bring in Gio Lopez from UNC to run the offense. The defense, however, was decent last season and is full of returnees. Look for a bigger imbalance between Wake's platoons.
```
 *Wake Forest  (5-7)   SOS #53
 1   #123 Akron               84.2
 2 @ # 77 Purdue              56.3
 3   # 13 Miami FL            26.2
 4 @ # 19 Louisville          26.8
 5   # 66 Stanford            61.5
 6 @ # 55 NC State            43.8
 7 @ # 68 California          52.0
 8   # 30 Virginia            41.0
 9    FCS Merrimack           94.1
10 @ # 27 SMU                 31.9
11 @ # 56 Georgia Tech        44.3
12   # 42 Duke                48.5
```
The Deacons outperformed last year and returning to a bowl game won't be easy. They need to pick up an extra win beyond the 5 we spot here, which assumes close wins at Purdue and California. The last two games are up for grabs, so if they start 5-5, or even 4-6, they still have a shot to beat Georgia Tech and Duke.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
2025 Results: (5-8) Str: #54 Off/Def: #30/#76
Returning: #45 Portal: #84 Pure Str: #59 Program Rank: #56
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.8-7.2) Bowl: 37% Conf: SEC #16

Mississippi State held on to much of their team, which is admirable for a lower-tier Power conference member. But they didn't keep enough to show improvement, and they remain at about the level of their program, with both offense and defense remaining roughly the same.
```
 *Mississippi St  (2-10)  SOS #11
 1   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    86.9
 2 @ # 46 Minnesota           41.8
 3 @ # 24 South Carolina      29.2
 4   # 26 Missouri            39.9
 5   # 18 Alabama             33.0
 6 @ # 17 LSU                 22.3
 7   # 12 Oklahoma            22.5
 8 @ # 11 Texas               15.2
 9   # 22 Vanderbilt          38.1
10   # 40 Auburn              48.1
11    FCS Tennessee Tech      86.5
12 @ #  6 Mississippi         12.8
```
Mississippi State is in the SEC cellar so wins will be hard to come by. We see the Bulldogs beating ULM and Tennessee Tech, with the numbers suggesting probably 3 upsets to match last year's 5 wins. The most likely are Minnesota on the road, and Missouri and Auburn at home. Easier said than done, which is why their bowl odds are only 37%.
North Dakota State Bison
2025 Results: (12-1) Str: #47 Off/Def: #43/#54
Returning: #40 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #65 Program Rank: #52
2026 Proj: 12-0 (8.9-3.1) Bowl: 87% Conf: MWC #1

North Dakota State finally did it after all these years—they moved to the FBS. It comes after a disappointing loss in the FCS tournament last year. It wasn't one of their best teams—those were usually borderline Top 25 in Strength, while last year's Bison were barely top 50. And while a decent portion of that team returns, there are few Portal transfers of note to supplement them for the upward transition. Gone on offense are the QB, top RB and top WR, but the offensive line remains strong. The defense returns 5 starters. This team always reloads well and should remain near their recent-term average level.
```
 *North Dakota St (12-0: 2.2%) SOS #138
 1   # 95 Jacksonville St     72.9
 2    FCS Fordham             94.6
 3 @ # 84 Air Force           56.5
 4 @ #125 Sacramento St       76.7
 5   #112 Wyoming             80.2
 6 @ # 85 UNLV                57.4
 7   #120 Nevada              82.1
 8 @ # 79 New Mexico          54.7
 9   #132 UTEP                86.5
10 @ #106 Hawai`i             68.2
11   #119 N Illinois          81.6
12 @ #121 San Jose St         75.3
```
The Bison enter the FBS with the easiest schedule in the country. No team they play is expected to be above-average and 2/3 are #100 or worse. This leads to a 12-0 game-by-game projection, making the Bison a valid Playoff competitor in their first season! They have just a 2.2% chance of going undefeated however. Their toughest games are Air Force, UNLV, and New Mexico, all on the road, and if they lose all three they will match their 9-3 cumulative expectation. Still, it looks to be a good first year and they may be the best team in the Mountain West.
Michigan State Spartans
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #63 Off/Def: #59/#59
Returning: #119 Portal: #15 Pure Str: #52 Program Rank: #74
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.4-7.6) Bowl: 33% Conf: B10 #17

The Spartans were similarly mediocre on offense and defense last season and that might not change. They lose a lot, especially on offense, but Pat Fitzgerald does great Portal work in his first season. He brings in a WR from Michigan, a RB from UConn, and OLs from UConn, North Dakota State, and Wake Forest. The D returns top tackler Jordan Hall and raids Iowa, NC State, and Louisiana Tech to cover the field.
```
 *Michigan St  (2-10)   SOS #13
 1   # 89 Toledo              66.4
 2   #110 Eastern Michigan    78.9
 3 @ #  2 Notre Dame           5.1
 4   # 23 Nebraska            37.1
 5 @ # 51 Wisconsin           39.0
 6   # 32 Illinois            39.0
 7   # 49 Northwestern        48.8
 8 @ # 31 UCLA                29.6
 9 @ # 15 Michigan            17.9
10   # 14 Washington          23.8
11   #  3 Oregon              11.2
12 @ # 48 Rutgers             38.9
```
MSU's problem is having a Big Ten schedule + Notre Dame. After beating Toledo and Eastern Michigan, any other win will be an upset. The Spartans should end up about 4-8 and have a 1 in 3 shot at reaching a bowl, but other than beating Fitzgerald's former school Northwestern none really jump out. Guess that's why they're called upsets.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #57 Off/Def: #46/#68
Returning: #118 Portal: #27 Pure Str: #68 Program Rank: #55
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.4-6.6) Bowl: 47% Conf: B12 #13

Like many 2nd tier Power conference programs, Cincy is pretty depleted, but does a decent job of rebuilding from the Portal. Their top 2 QBs, top two RBs, and four top WRs are gone. They retain much of the O-Line and add a QB from Georgia Southern. On defense they fill the holes better with three former Northern Illinois starters.
```
 *Cincinnati  (5-7)     SOS #42
 1   # 90 Boston College      66.6
 2    FCS Western Carolina    84.1
 3   # 83 Miami OH            64.5
 4   # 29 Kansas St           38.2
 5 @ # 25 Arizona             28.7
 6 @ # 65 West Virginia       48.1
 7   #  9 Texas Tech          17.3
 8   # 33 Utah                38.7
 9 @ # 20 Houston             24.4
10 @ # 72 Iowa St             52.2
11   # 54 Colorado            50.5
12 @ # 21 Brigham Young       24.7
```
The season should start well with three wins, but after that they'll have to fight for every W. Iowa State and Colorado near the end put them at 5-7, so they'll need to beat West Virginia on the road. The odds (47% bowl eligibility) say they likely fall just short.
San Diego State Aztecs
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #60 Off/Def: #84/#32
Returning: #22 Portal: #73 Pure Str: #36 Program Rank: #94
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 66% Conf: P12 #2

The Aztecs do a remarkable job of holding last year's squad together especially for a Group of Five (now Six) team. The offense was weak last year but should improve with all the relevant QB/RB/WR back. The defense was pretty good last season but will be down a step. This team has a lot of potential if they can outperform their low Program baseline.
```
 *San Diego St  (9-3)  SOS #96
 1    FCS Portland St         90.0
 2 @ # 31 UCLA                28.7
 3   # 75 James Madison       60.4
 4 @ # 89 Toledo              55.9
 5   # 73 Texas State         59.8
 6 @ # 93 Oregon St           57.2
 7   # 70 Fresno St           56.8
 8 @ #113 Colorado St         70.7
 9   # 71 Washington St       58.3
10   # 80 Utah St             61.9
11 @ # 50 Boise St            38.2
12 @ # 70 Fresno St*          46.9
```
SDSU was 9-4 last year and could match that win total in the refigured Pac-12. They're better than anyone in the league other than Boise, though they probably lose to Fresno on the road (thought that is a Pac-12 "flex" game that can be altered). 7-5 is more realistic but they have a 2/3 chance to return to a bowl and we can't count the Aztecs out of the conference title hunt.
Memphis Tigers
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #66 Off/Def: #56/#65
Returning: #135 Portal: #7 Pure Str: #75 Program Rank: #58
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.5-4.5) Bowl: 74% Conf: AAc #1

Last year's Memphis squad was completely decimated by the Portal after their coach left for Arkansas but finds a solution the same way, ranking in the top ten for their own Portal haul. The offense is pretty much erased off the board, with just one starter and a few relevant backups still on the team. New coach Charles Huff rebuilds the O-Line with players from Old Dominion (x2), Colorado State, and Arkansas State. The defense similarly starts over utilizing players from Huff's previous job, Southern Miss.
```
 *Memphis  (9-3)    SOS #107
 1 @ # 85 UNLV                54.4
 2   #107 Arkansas St         75.8
 3 @ # 50 Boise St            38.9
 4    FCS Tennessee-Martin    83.5
 5 @ #129 UNC-Charlotte       76.0
 6   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  82.7
 7 @ # 64 Tulane              46.9
 8   # 86 East Carolina       63.7
 9   # 67 Army                56.6
10 @ # 74 South Florida       51.8
11 @ # 69 Navy                47.8
12   #104 Temple              74.6
```
Thanks to an easy schedule Memphis should compete for the American title. It's a big question mark as to how a completely new team can thrive but the American isn't strong this year. We see losses to Boise State, Tulane, and Navy, and probably 1 or 2 more realistically.
Tulane Green Wave
2025 Results: (11-3) Str: #58 Off/Def: #66/#44
Returning: #83 Portal: #95 Pure Str: #84 Program Rank: #40
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.1-4.9) Bowl: 70% Conf: AAc #2

Tulane made the Playoff in 2025 but lost big to Ole Miss, just as they did during the regular season. Last year's team loses a lot of players and the Wave's Portal effort was weak in Will Hall's first year as coach. They'll miss QB Jake Retzlaff who was also their #1 rusher. Their top 2 tacklers return on D but not much else. Still, the Program is sound and the American isn't strong so they still have a shot at winning the league.
```
 *Tulane (8-4)     SOS #86
 1 @ # 42 Duke                33.9
 2   # 99 South Alabama       71.1
 3 @ # 29 Kansas St           27.0
 4   #137 Southern Miss       86.7
 5 @ # 67 Army                45.7
 6   # 63 Memphis             53.1
 7   # 76 UTSA                60.4
 8 @ #129 UNC-Charlotte       74.9
 9   #115 Tulsa               77.5
10 @ #124 Rice                73.0
11   # 82 North Texas         62.1
12 @ # 74 South Florida       49.3
```
Tulane tends to schedule a tough non-conference slate and this year they have Duke and Kansas State both on the road. After that they should beat most of their AAC foes, maybe losing at Army and USF. They get Memphis at home so winning the conference again is in play. 7-5 is their most likely total and a bowl game is probable.
West Virginia Mountaineers
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #88 Off/Def: #85/#84
Returning: #130 Portal: #4 Pure Str: #70 Program Rank: #66
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.2-6.8) Bowl: 45% Conf: B12 #14

West Virginia has almost total turnover from last year's squad; they lose nearly everyone but rebuild quite effectively via the Portal. The end result could be an improved team that's back to their recent Program level after a lackluster 2025. Rich Rod adds a QB from Oklahoma and three starters from Jacksonville State on offense. The defense is rebuilt from the ground up: starters from Coastal Carolina, Western Kentucky, FAU, Memphis, and UNLV are brought in.
```
 *West Virginia  (4-8)   SOS #44
 1   #109 Coastal Carolina    75.8
 2    FCS Tennessee-Martin    82.0
 3 N # 30 Virginia            30.9
 4   # 91 Oklahoma St         63.8
 5 @ # 72 Iowa St             48.7
 6   # 25 Arizona             33.6
 7   # 61 Cincinnati          51.9
 8 @ # 28 TCU                 26.4
 9 @ #  9 Texas Tech          10.0
10   # 44 Kansas              43.5
11   # 20 Houston             30.2
12 @ # 33 Utah                27.4
```
WVU has a tough schedule with Virginia in Charlotte and most of the best Big Twelve teams. To get to six wins they'll need to beat Iowa State in Ames and Kansas at home, not impossible but no one really knows how this team will perform. Odds project a 5-7 finish and 45% bowl eligibility.
Stanford Cardinal
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #80 Off/Def: #89/#70
Returning: #4 Portal: #124 Pure Str: #48 Program Rank: #88
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.8-7.2) Bowl: 39% Conf: ACC #13

Stanford has a Portal problem; many players can't transfer their credits to the school. That's why the Cardinal's Portal rank is so low. So they have to focus on player retention, and given that it's Tavita Pritchard's first year he did an incredible job on that front. The offensive line is pretty well stacked but most of the skill positions are question marks. The defense returns its four top tacklers. Depth is an issue since the Program's ranking is not good lately.
```
 *Stanford  (2-10)    SOS #35
 1   #106 Hawai`i             73.1
 2   # 13 Miami FL            21.9
 3 @ # 42 Duke                32.5
 4   # 56 Georgia Tech        47.4
 5 @ # 57 Wake Forest         38.5
 6 @ #  2 Notre Dame           4.4
 7    FCS Elon                84.3
 8   # 55 NC State            46.9
 9 @ # 19 Louisville          21.6
10 @ # 36 Virginia Tech       29.4
11 @ # 68 California          45.5
12   # 27 SMU                 34.8
```
Stanford also has a schedule problem, owning the 3rd hardest schedule in the ACC. The reason is the Notre Dame trip mid-season. They balance that with Elon, one of only two game-by-game wins on their slate (the other being Hawaii). Like most teams projected 2-10, their expected win total is higher, closer to 5-7, which they could reach by winning tossups vs. Georgia Tech, NC State, and Cal, but their bowl odds are still just 39%.
Army Black Knights
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #71 Off/Def: #107/#34
Returning: #25 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #67 Program Rank: #73
2026 Proj: 11-1 (7.7-4.3) Bowl: 75% Conf: AAc #3

Army can't use the Portal so they hope to have good returning talent. The Knights have a lot back on offense, where they were dismal, but not much on defense, where they were good. The upshot is they look about the same as last year—maybe higher scoring games?—with Cale Hellums returning at QB.
```
 *Army  (11-1)     SOS #133
 1    FCS Bryant              92.6
 2   # 74 South Florida       58.9
 3 @ #104 Temple              64.5
 4 @ # 98 Louisiana Tech      61.5
 5   # 64 Tulane              54.3
 6   # 97 Florida Atlantic    70.4
 7 @ #115 Tulsa               70.0
 8 @ # 63 Memphis             43.4
 9   # 84 Air Force           61.8
10   # 86 East Carolina       62.5
11 @ #124 Rice                73.0
12   # 69 Navy                56.1
```
A very weak schedule puts Army in the running for the Playoff if they win every game they're supposed to. Only two AAC teams grade out better than Army and they get Tulane at home. If Memphis doesn't gel then Army has a shot at going 12-0. Since few games are blowouts, the odds of that are just 0.4%, and an 8-4 finish is much more likely. Still, it looks like another bowl year and they are the favorites for the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy.
California Golden Bears
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #83 Off/Def: #80/#80
Returning: #56 Portal: #62 Pure Str: #73 Program Rank: #69
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.4-6.6) Bowl: 46% Conf: ACC #14

Last year Cal had the #80 offense and #80 defense—balance, in other words. That won't happen in 2026 as the offense returns many more starters than the defense and most of their Portal juice is spent there, too. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is back along with top receiver Chase Hendrix while the O-Line is rebuilt from transfers. On defense they lose their top five tacklers.
```
 *California  (4-8)   SOS #63
 1   # 31 UCLA                35.5
 2 @ # 81 Syracuse            50.3
 3    FCS Wagner              96.5
 4   # 43 Clemson             42.4
 5 @ # 85 UNLV                50.6
 6   # 36 Virginia Tech       37.0
 7   # 57 Wake Forest         48.0
 8 @ # 27 SMU                 25.7
 9 @ # 55 NC State            37.2
10 @ # 30 Virginia            26.5
11   # 66 Stanford            54.5
12   # 35 Pittsburgh          36.5
```
Cal looks better on paper but worse when projected; 7-6 was an outperformance for them, and they'll need to outperform again to reach a bowl game. Game by game they are 4-8 but than assumes wins in uber-tossup games at Syracuse and UNLV. Pretty much every contest should be competitive though, and they have a 46% chance to go 6-6 or better.
Navy Midshipmen
2025 Results: (11-2) Str: #69 Off/Def: #61/#69
Returning: #26 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #66 Program Rank: #77
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.1-4.9) Bowl: 70% Conf: AAc #4

Navy wildly outperformed last year going 11-2. After eight cupcake wins they were exposed by North Texas and Notre Dame (49-10) but recovered to upset USF and Memphis, then beat Army and Cincinnati. Still, they were just #69 in Strength. They return a solid amount of talent but get no Portal support (armed forces schools can't use the transfer portal). This puts them exactly back where they were last year, but we have to assume the overperformance won't happen again.
```
 *Navy  (9-3)     SOS #82
 1    FCS Towson              86.3
 2 @ # 97 Florida Atlantic    60.2
 3 @ #130 Alabama-Birmingham  74.4
 4 @ # 84 Air Force           51.9
 5   #115 Tulsa               76.6
 6 @ # 76 UTSA                49.3
 7   # 82 North Texas         61.5
 8 N #  2 Notre Dame           5.7
 9   #104 Temple              72.6
10   # 63 Memphis             52.2
11 @ #129 UNC-Charlotte       73.7
12 @ # 67 Army                43.9
```
Game by game it looks a lot like last season: beat the cupcakes, lose big to Notre Dame, and go from there. But the Air Force game is no gimme, and UTSA on the road may be a loss. Memphis at home is uncertain, too, and Army (in New Jersey) will be tough. Overall we expect 7-5 and a bowl game.
Fresno State Bulldogs
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #82 Off/Def: #98/#63
Returning: #9 Portal: #101 Pure Str: #61 Program Rank: #81
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 64% Conf: P12 #3

Matt Enz returns a lot of what made Fresno a 9-win team in 2025, enough that he didn't have to go Portal-fishing to cover the cracks. The offense returns most of its production at RB and WR, and while the defense loses a lot of top tacklers the D-Line is stacked.
```
 *Fresno St  (7-5)   SOS #77
 1 @ #  7 Southern Cal         9.4
 2   #125 Sacramento St       79.3
 3 @ #121 San Jose St         71.2
 4   #124 Rice                79.2
 5 @ # 71 Washington St       46.3
 6   # 50 Boise St            45.9
 7 @ # 62 San Diego St        43.2
 8   # 93 Oregon St           63.9
 9 @ # 80 Utah St             50.1
10 @ # 73 Texas State         47.9
11   #113 Colorado St         76.3
12   # 62 San Diego St*       53.1
```
Once they get past the USC game the schedule is not bad, and even the projected losses are in play. That's true of some of the wins, too, like Utah State and SDSU (note that the SDSU game isn't finalized). 7-5 is about where they should finish, one way or another.
Washington State Cougars
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #61 Off/Def: #88/#30
Returning: #115 Portal: #61 Pure Str: #86 Program Rank: #54
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.9-6.1) Bowl: 54% Conf: P12 #4

Washington State had a solid defense in 2025, but that is bound to change: the team loses its top 17 tacklers from last year. The offense does a lot better though, with starters at RB, WR, TE, and OL back. Portal transfers will line the secondary but the defense will take a dive and overall the team is worse in Kirby Moore's first year as coach.
```
 *Washington St  (5-7)  SOS #67
 1 @ # 14 Washington          13.8
 2 @ # 29 Kansas St           25.2
 3    FCS Duquesne            90.0
 4   # 25 Arizona             32.6
 5   # 70 Fresno St           53.7
 6 @ # 80 Utah St             48.9
 7 @ # 93 Oregon St           52.2
 8   # 50 Boise St            44.9
 9 @ # 62 San Diego St        41.7
10   #113 Colorado St         75.8
11 @ # 73 Texas State         47.3
12   # 93 Oregon St*          63.0
```
Scheduling Washington, Kansas State, and Arizona doesn't help matters. With a 1-3 record suggested by the pre-conference season the Cougars have to go 5-3 to make a bowl. Game by game they go 4-4 but all of the projected losses are close games, and the odds say they make it to 6-6 despite the rocky start.
Iowa State Cyclones
2025 Results: (8-4) Str: #35 Off/Def: #50/#29
Returning: #137 Portal: #35 Pure Str: #118 Program Rank: #27
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.2-6.8) Bowl: 44% Conf: B12 #15

Few teams are hit as hard from a coaching change as Iowa State is from losing Matt Campbell. 8-4 last year and #35 in Strength, the Cyclones lose pretty much all their QBs, RBs, WRs, and the entire starting O-Line. The defense loses its top 11 tacklers. Jimmy Rogers did what he could from the Portal and got a few gems on both sides of the line including QB Jaylen Raynor from Arkansas State but it's a huge rebuilding year. Only Iowa State's surprisingly strong Program strength of #27 prevents total disaster.
```
 *Iowa St  (4-8)    SOS #56
 1    FCS SE Missouri St      83.5
 2 @ # 37 Iowa                27.9
 3   #114 Bowling Green       74.2
 4   # 33 Utah                33.0
 5   # 65 West Virginia       51.3
 6 @ # 21 Brigham Young       19.7
 7 @ # 25 Arizona             22.6
 8   # 91 Oklahoma St         61.5
 9 @ # 47 Baylor              32.6
10   # 61 Cincinnati          47.8
11 @ # 52 Central Florida     33.4
12   # 29 Kansas St           31.8
```
The Cyclones have two solid wins in the early going, then comes the game at Iowa which could be ugly; it will be the first time in a while that one team has completely outclassed the other. In the Big Twelve ISU ranks 15th and even the implied wins are tight. A few of the losses are too so bowl eligibility is not fully out of reach, just unlikely.
Texas State Bobcats
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #81 Off/Def: #45/#114
Returning: #18 Portal: #126 Pure Str: #71 Program Rank: #82
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.3-5.7) Bowl: 60% Conf: P12 #5

Texas State bucks the trend and retains a lot of starters, especially on offense, forgoing the Portal for the most part. QB Brad Jackson is back along with two 1,000 yard receivers so last year's solid offense will return. The defense was bad and might get worse but 3 of the top 5 tacklers are back. Overall things look pretty good, even without Portal help.
```
 *Texas State  (9-3)   SOS #80
 1 @ # 11 Texas               10.3
 2   # 76 UTSA                56.6
 3   # 82 North Texas         57.8
 4    FCS Incarnate Word      77.5
 5 @ # 62 San Diego St        40.2
 6   #113 Colorado St         74.4
 7   # 80 Utah St             57.0
 8 @ # 50 Boise St            33.7
 9 @ # 93 Oregon St           51.8
10   # 70 Fresno St           52.1
11   # 71 Washington St       52.7
12 @ #113 Colorado St*        66.1
```
The Bobcats might have a solid 2026 despite opening at Texas. Beyond that there are just two likely losses: at SDSU and at Boise State. That's 9-3, but note that SIX of the wins are in the 50s for percentile. No wonder the cumulative estimate downgrades them to 6-6. Still, they should make a bowl game, and the potential is there for a great season.
South Florida Bulls
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #21 Off/Def: #13/#52
Returning: #129 Portal: #31 Pure Str: #82 Program Rank: #65
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.6-4.4) Bowl: 75% Conf: AAc #5

The Bulls had a coaching change for 2026 and you can probably guess the rest. Almost every key player left via the Portal, and new coach Brian Hartline made a valiant effort to rebuild the team. QB Byrum Brown (also the leading rusher) is gone along with the running backs, receivers, and most of the O-line. Hartline rebuilds the O-Line with transfers, but the offense (and defense) will be much worse. The Bulls fall from #21 in Strength to #74.
```
 *South Florida  (8-4)   SOS #129
 1   #126 Florida Int'l       77.2
 2 @ # 67 Army                41.1
 3    FCS Delaware St         95.4
 4 @ #114 Bowling Green       66.2
 5   #104 Temple              69.4
 6 @ # 76 UTSA                46.2
 7   #136 Kent St             82.4
 8   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  79.4
 9 @ # 86 East Carolina       48.7
10   # 63 Memphis             48.2
11 @ # 97 Florida Atlantic    57.8
12   # 64 Tulane              50.7
```
Shockingly, despite the huge downgrade things don't look too bad for '26. That's due to a very soft schedule, #129 in the nation, with FIU, Delaware State, Bowling Green, and Kent State as non-conference foes. That's like adding four W's to the schedule, though some of those aren't gimmes even at home. Assuming they get those, bowl eligibility is a snap (75%) and 8-4 sounds about right. But say goodbye to the huge scores, as well as the intrigue of 2025's team battling it out with Florida, Miami, and Boise State.
James Madison Dukes
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #30 Off/Def: #27/#42
Returning: #123 Portal: #90 Pure Str: #108 Program Rank: #37
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.8-4.2) Bowl: 77% Conf: SunE#1

Last year's Playoff team is gone. Billy Napier takes over as head coach and, for the 2nd time in three years, the bulk of the team leaves with the former coach. Napier was largely unable to reload via the Portal himself, leaving both offense and defense depleted. James Madison's strong foundation as a program prevents a more massive downgrade; nevertheless, they fall from #30 to #75—yet remain ranked #1 in the Sun Belt East.
```
 *James Madison (10-2)  SOS #131
 1   # 88 Liberty             58.7
 2    FCS Wagner              95.4
 3 @ # 62 San Diego St        39.6
 4 @ # 87 Old Dominion        48.8
 5   # 94 Marshall            61.6
 6 @ #101 Georgia Southern    57.6
 7   #122 Georgia St          76.6
 8 @ #116 Appalachian St      67.0
 9   #103 Troy                68.1
10 @ #137 Southern Miss       78.3
11 @ #108 Connecticut         61.4
12   #109 Coastal Carolina    71.6
```
Like South Florida, another hugely downgraded team, a soft schedule softens the blow and the Dukes could have another 10-win season! Only San Diego State and Old Dominion on the road spoil their game-by-game record, and winning the Sun Belt again is in play. An 8-4 finish is more likely but a bowl game is fairly certain.
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #64 Off/Def: #26/#92
Returning: #65 Portal: #119 Pure Str: #81 Program Rank: #72
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 66% Conf: AAc #6

UTSA doesn't bring home much Portal gold and that's ok for the offense where QB Owen McCown returns with two key receivers and three O-Line starters, but not on defense where the top four tacklers and entire starting secondary are gone. The defense was weak last year and just got even worse.
```
 *UTSA  (9-3)      SOS #85
 1    FCS UT-RGV              77.5
 2 @ # 73 Texas State         43.4
 3 @ # 11 Texas                9.6
 4   #113 Colorado St         73.7
 5 @ #124 Rice                68.1
 6   # 74 South Florida       53.8
 7   # 69 Navy                50.7
 8 @ # 64 Tulane              39.6
 9 @ # 97 Florida Atlantic    57.0
10   # 82 North Texas         56.5
11 @ #130 Alabama-Birmingham  70.5
12   #115 Tulsa               73.9
```
The Roadrunner offense will have to carry it and they should do well again in the American. The early going with road games at Texas State and Texas will be rough. After that the wins should pile up though several are tight and their 9-3 game-by-game projection softens to 7-5 when you take that into consideration. A bowl is likely and a conference title appearance isn't out of the question.
Purdue Boilermakers
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #73 Off/Def: #79/#66
Returning: #85 Portal: #42 Pure Str: #69 Program Rank: #87
2026 Proj: 1-11 (3.5-8.5) Bowl: 21% Conf: B10 #18

Poor Purdue, stuck in the Big Ten cellar, loses a solid portion of last year's team and Barry Odom does his best to rebuild via the Portal but the best he can do is tread water. He nabs OLs from South Carolina and USC but the skill positions are weak. The defense isn't terrible, but not up to Big Ten quality.
```
 *Purdue  (1-11)    SOS #5
 1    FCS Indiana St          89.0
 2   # 57 Wake Forest         43.7
 3 @ # 31 UCLA                23.1
 4   #  2 Notre Dame           5.6
 5 @ # 32 Illinois            22.9
 6   # 46 Minnesota           39.8
 7   # 14 Washington          17.8
 8 @ #  5 Penn State           7.2
 9   # 39 Maryland            35.0
10 @ # 37 Iowa                25.9
11   # 51 Wisconsin           40.1
12 @ #  1 Indiana              2.8
```
Even worse for the Boilermakers, they have the 5th hardest schedule in the country, playing #2 Notre Dame in non-conference action and #1 Indiana at the end of the year, making Purdue the only team to face both of our top teams. At least Indiana State gives them an opening win (we assume) because that's it for the games Purdue will be favored in. By the odds Purdue gets 2-3 upsets, finishing 3-9 or 4-8, but their bowl odds are just 21%. Better news: their odds of going winless are just 0.4%.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #94 Off/Def: #115/#67
Returning: #66 Portal: #72 Pure Str: #80 Program Rank: #76
2026 Proj: 3-9 (4.2-7.8) Bowl: 30% Conf: ACC #15

Bill Belichick certainly isn't working any Portal magic at UNC. Yet between returnees and transfers the team might be marginally better in 2026 than it was in 2025. Bobby Petrino takes over the offense so maybe they will improve from #115 in the nation with Maryland transfer Billy Edwards at the helm. Update: In another positive note, kicker Rece Verhoof will be back for a 5th season.
```
 *North Carolina  (3-9)  SOS #32
 1 N # 28 TCU                 25.4
 2    FCS East Tennessee St   82.3
 3 @ # 43 Clemson             28.6
 4   #  2 Notre Dame           5.9
 5 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          23.9
 6 @ # 42 Duke                28.0
 7   # 81 Syracuse            55.4
 8   # 13 Miami FL            17.5
 9 @ #108 Connecticut         60.3
10   # 19 Louisville          25.0
11 @ # 30 Virginia            22.0
12   # 55 NC State            42.2
```
The problem with improving is that it doesn't always show up in the W column and that may be the case this year. With Notre Dame on the schedule along with TCU, the Tar Heels have dug an 0-2 hole and with Clemson, Pitt, and Duke following they might be 1-5 at the midway point. UConn should be another win but that's 3-9 by our count, or likely 4-8 just like last year.
New Mexico Lobos
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #72 Off/Def: #83/#61
Returning: #19 Portal: #94 Pure Str: #56 Program Rank: #103
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.4-4.6) Bowl: 74% Conf: MWC #2

New Mexico retains a lot of last year's team, in relative terms, but it's probably not enough to match last year's Strength given the program's baseline. Still, it puts them #2 in the Mountain West so a successful season could be in the works. Update: Just 2 days before the start of the FBS season QB Jack Layne announced he will sit out the season due a lingering injury.
```
 *New Mexico  (10-2)   SOS #98
 1   #111 Central Michigan    72.5
 2    FCS Mercyhurst          95.7
 3 @ # 12 Oklahoma            10.0
 4 @ #118 New Mexico St       65.4
 5   #132 UTEP                79.8
 6 @ #106 Hawai`i             59.6
 7   # 59 North Dakota St     45.3
 8 @ #121 San Jose St         67.8
 9 @ #120 Nevada              65.8
10   # 85 UNLV                56.6
11 @ #112 Wyoming             64.5
12   # 84 Air Force           55.8
```
The Lobos scheduled Oklahoma, giving themselves a tall mountain to climb within the small hills they should easily scale (such as Mercyhurst, who is playing 3 FBS teams this year!). They may be 5-1 going into the showdown with North Dakota State, one they probably lose. But the wins should resume after that. Most of them are close games so the cumulative projection of 7-5 or 8-4 is more likely than 10-2 but they are in the running for the Mountain West title.
Utah State Aggies
2025 Results: (6-7) Str: #78 Off/Def: #54/#90
Returning: #30 Portal: #82 Pure Str: #63 Program Rank: #96
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 51% Conf: P12 #6

Utah State does a good job holding on to its players, and both the offense and defense could be improved from last year. The weakness of the program, however, prevents us from upgrading the team overall as poor recruiting and thin depth will curb gains.
```
 *Utah St  (4-8)    SOS #70
 1    FCS Idaho St            80.4
 2 @ # 14 Washington          11.5
 3 @ # 33 Utah                22.4
 4   #103 Troy                66.6
 5 @ # 50 Boise St            30.9
 6   # 71 Washington St       51.1
 7 @ # 73 Texas State         43.0
 8   #113 Colorado St         71.8
 9   # 70 Fresno St           49.9
10 @ # 62 San Diego St        38.1
11 @ # 93 Oregon St           49.7
12   # 50 Boise St*           40.1
```
Another 6-6 bowl season for Utah State? That's the most likely occurrence according to the odds, just beating out a 5-7 season. Game by game the Aggies look 4-8 though, and that's assuming they win the tossup with Washington State. There are further tossups with Fresno and Oregon State they could win though. Scheduling Washington and Utah is the problem; replace those with winnable games and a bowl is nearly certain. Smaller programs gotta keep that money rollin' in, though (the Aggies get $1.5 million for going to Washington).
Syracuse Orange
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #98 Off/Def: #97/#98
Returning: #70 Portal: #54 Pure Str: #78 Program Rank: #80
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.6-7.4) Bowl: 37% Conf: ACC #16

Syracuse had a bad 2025 season: 3-9, #98 Strength, #97 Offense, #98 Defense. The offense looks worse and the defense better this year, and the program should recover somewhat. But don't expect radically different results.
```
 *Syracuse  (2-10)    SOS #48
 1    FCS New Hampshire       78.3
 2   # 68 California          49.7
 3 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          23.2
 4 @ #108 Connecticut         60.0
 5 @ # 30 Virginia            22.5
 6   # 19 Louisville          24.7
 7 @ # 78 North Carolina      44.6
 8   # 27 SMU                 29.4
 9   # 43 Clemson             36.9
10 @ # 55 NC State            32.8
11 @ # 90 Boston College      48.2
12   #  2 Notre Dame           5.8
```
The Orange have the right idea scheduling New Hampshire and UConn, but they make the ACC mistake of adding Notre Dame. Though they are 2-10 game by game the Cal game and the Boston College game are tossups, and the odds predict 2 or 3 upsets so exceeding last year's win total is more likely than not. But getting to a bowl game is not.
North Texas Mean Green
2025 Results: (12-2) Str: #28 Off/Def: #4/#93
Returning: #136 Portal: #20 Pure Str: #89 Program Rank: #71
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.7-5.3) Bowl: 67% Conf: AAc #7

Few teams in our preview drop as far as North Texas: from #28 to #82 in Strength. They return less of their talent than all but two teams in the FBS. The Green recover pretty well with Portal supplementation but it can't cover the losses on their offense (all skill starters and the entire offensive line) and defense (the ten top tacklers). The catalyst for this was a coaching change, and Neal Brown valiantly brings in a QB from UCF and a few guys on defense, but it's a big drop, especially on Offense where they were #4 last year.
```
 *North Texas  (7-5)   SOS #74
 1 @ #  1 Indiana              2.2
 2   # 85 UNLV                55.9
 3 @ # 73 Texas State         42.2
 4    FCS Houston Christian   93.1
 5 @ #115 Tulsa               63.6
 6   #129 UNC-Charlotte       77.0
 7 @ # 69 Navy                38.5
 8   # 97 Florida Atlantic    64.5
 9   #124 Rice                74.8
10 @ # 76 UTSA                43.5
11 @ # 64 Tulane              37.9
12   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  77.2
```
Opening at Indiana is further salt in the wound, but let's be real: even a much-weakened North Texas could still be better than most of the American conference; they just won't be chasing a Playoff berth this year. We have the Mean Green 7-5 with a 2 in 3 chance at a bowl game.
Miami Ohio Redhawks
2025 Results: (7-7) Str: #93 Off/Def: #102/#77
Returning: #55 Portal: #58 Pure Str: #76 Program Rank: #89
2026 Proj: 9-3 (7.5-4.5) Bowl: 75% Conf: MAC #1

The MAC is in trouble. More than any other conference, teams are seeing their entire squad raided for talent by teams with huge NIL budgets, and most are finding it hard to rebuild. Miami is at the top of the MAC heap because they didn't lose their whole squad, and did a decent job in the Portal themselves.
```
 *Miami OH  (9-3)   SOS #108
 1 @ # 35 Pittsburgh          22.6
 2    FCS Holy Cross          79.1
 3 @ # 61 Cincinnati          35.5
 4   #108 Connecticut         67.3
 5   #114 Bowling Green       72.1
 6 @ #138 Massachusetts       79.7
 7   #123 Akron               74.3
 8 @ #111 Central Michigan    62.6
 9   #127 Buffalo             75.3
10   #102 Ohio U.             65.0
11 @ #136 Kent St             72.6
12 @ # 92 Western Michigan    48.0
```
Miami should see an improved record as they get better but most of the rest of the MAC gets worse. They probably lose at Pitt and Cincy but could go unbeaten in conference play; Western Michigan on the road is their only game-by-game blemish. 8-4 or 7-5 is more likely than 9-3 but a bowl game is in the cards.
Air Force Falcons
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #95 Off/Def: #68/#117
Returning: #10 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #74 Program Rank: #92
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.3-4.7) Bowl: 72% Conf: MWC #3

Air Force had a reasonably good offense but a terrible (#117) defense last year; that script could flip this season as most of their returning talent—ranked top ten in relative terms—is on the defensive side of the ball, including 8 of their top 9 tacklers. Since service academies don't use the Portal, whoever returns—plus who they recruit—is what they have.
```
 *Air Force  (8-4)   SOS #125
 1    FCS Duquesne            87.8
 2   # 59 North Dakota St     43.5
 3 @ #120 Nevada              66.0
 4   # 69 Navy                48.1
 5 @ #119 N Illinois          64.6
 6   # 85 UNLV                55.0
 7 @ #112 Wyoming             62.8
 8   #108 Connecticut         68.8
 9 @ # 67 Army                38.2
10   #121 San Jose St         74.8
11   #132 UTEP                79.8
12 @ # 79 New Mexico          44.2
```
The Falcons also benefit from an easy schedule and could actually flip their 4-8 finish to 8-4 in 2026. Their expected losses are to newcomer North Dakota State; their service academy rivals Navy and Army; and New Mexico on the road. All four games are winnable, especially the home Navy game, but a 7-5 finish is most likely.
UNLV Rebels
2025 Results: (10-4) Str: #76 Off/Def: #41/#103
Returning: #93 Portal: #76 Pure Str: #98 Program Rank: #64
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 64% Conf: MWC #4

UNLV is hit hard by losses on offense and defense but their one big Portal score is huge: QB Jackson Arnold who started for both Oklahoma and Auburn. The offense was solid last year but the receiver corps and O-Line are depleted, while the poor defense may get even worse. Still, they remain among the better teams in the conference. Update: Cohen Fuller, expected starter on the defensive line, was denied a 5th year due to the same Colorado court case that others were using to seek a 5th season.
```
 *UNLV  (6-6)      SOS #135
 1   # 63 Memphis             45.6
 2 @ #106 Hawai`i             57.7
 3 @ # 82 North Texas         44.1
 4 @ #123 Akron               65.8
 5   # 68 California          49.4
 6   # 59 North Dakota St     42.7
 7 @ # 84 Air Force           45.0
 8   #119 N Illinois          72.2
 9   #112 Wyoming             71.1
10 @ # 79 New Mexico          43.5
11 @ #121 San Jose St         65.3
12   #120 Nevada              72.9
```
Even though they have one of the easiest overall schedules in the county, UNLV plays the wrong teams on the road; North Texas, Air Force, and New Mexico would all be wins at home. That leaves them 6-6 or 7-5, down from 10 wins last year. Getting back to a bowl game despite losing so many players is an achievable goal.
East Carolina Pirates
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #42 Off/Def: #49/#45
Returning: #128 Portal: #37 Pure Str: #90 Program Rank: #75
2026 Proj: 8-4 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 67% Conf: AAc #8

The Pirates drop pretty far, from #42 to #86, but the American is so weak at the bottom half that they might not miss a step. East Carolina hardly returns a starter on offense or defense, and a valiant Portal recovery attempt can't stem the bleeding as they lose their top QBs, RBs, and receivers and 6 of their top 8 tacklers.
```
 *East Carolina  (8-4)   SOS #95
 1 @ # 18 Alabama             14.8
 2   #116 Appalachian St      71.6
 3 @ # 87 Old Dominion        45.6
 4    FCS NC Central          81.5
 5   #124 Rice                74.3
 6 @ #130 Alabama-Birmingham  68.1
 7 @ # 63 Memphis             36.3
 8   #104 Temple              66.6
 9   # 74 South Florida       51.3
10 @ #129 UNC-Charlotte       67.8
11 @ # 67 Army                37.5
12   # 97 Florida Atlantic    63.4
```
Playing in the American Athletic Conference is great if you're a decent team, as the bottom of the conference is very bad and insures a handful of wins each season. The Pirates scheduled Alabama so they depend on beating Rice, UAB, Temple, and Charlotte this season and FAU isn't great either. Add in Appalachian State and NC Central and that's 7 wins. Win the tossup vs. USF and that's 8-4. 7-5 is more likely but so is a bowl game; for a team that lost the bulk of the squad that's a good result.
Old Dominion Monarchs
2025 Results: (10-3) Str: #48 Off/Def: #57/#40
Returning: #84 Portal: #110 Pure Str: #94 Program Rank: #78
2026 Proj: 11-1 (7.2-4.8) Bowl: 70% Conf: SunE#2

Old Dominion comes back to reality in Strength, going from #48 to #87 but play in such a weak conference that they might improve on their 10-3 record. The offense is in shambles as the Monarchs lose their QB and entire offensive line and receivers corps and don't recover much at all via the Portal. The defense surprisingly returns a solid number of starters however, saving the team from further damage.
```
 *Old Dominion  (11-1)   SOS #117
 1    FCS Norfolk St          93.9
 2 @ # 36 Virginia Tech       21.9
 3   # 86 East Carolina       54.5
 4   # 75 James Madison       51.2
 5 @ #122 Georgia St          64.7
 6 @ #116 Appalachian St      62.8
 7   #101 Georgia Southern    63.4
 8 @ # 98 Louisiana Tech      52.9
 9   # 94 Marshall            57.1
10 @ #109 Coastal Carolina    59.1
11 @ #108 Connecticut         58.3
12   #137 Southern Miss       81.1
```
As we keep seeing with these massively downgraded teams, it doesn't make much difference when you play a triple-digit SOS. Game by game we show 11 wins, noting that *six* of those are in the 50's percentage-wise. That makes a 7-5 finish much more likely than 11-1 (or 12-0, a 0.1% chance).
Liberty Flames
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #99 Off/Def: #109/#96
Returning: #33 Portal: #60 Pure Str: #72 Program Rank: #98
2026 Proj: 11-1 (8.0-4.0) Bowl: 78% Conf: CUSA#1

Liberty was 4-8 last year and with moderate improvement they could go 11-1 in 2026. The Flames return quite a bit of talent (relatively speaking) and they supplement with Portal transfers. Having a weak conference helps as the C-USA is pretty dismal now.
```
 *Liberty  (11-1)    SOS #136
 1 @ # 75 James Madison       41.3
 2    FCS Gardner-Webb        81.5
 3   #134 Ball St             78.5
 4 @ #109 Coastal Carolina    59.3
 5 @ #105 Delaware            56.3
 6   #135 Sam Houston St      79.1
 7 @ #117 Kennesaw St         63.9
 8   #126 Florida Int'l       73.9
 9 @ #118 New Mexico St       63.2
10   #133 Middle Tennessee St 78.9
11   # 96 Western Kentucky    62.8
12 @ #128 Missouri St         66.3
```
Liberty plays the 3rd easiest schedule in the nation and it shows—10 games are against teams with triple-digit rankings or in the FCS, and WKU is #96. Only the opener at James Madison is too tough for them, so the Flames could go 11-1 and be conference champs. Note that none of these wins look like blowouts, and the cumulative odds have them 8-4 which would still be a mirror-image turnaround from last season.
Toledo Rockets
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #50 Off/Def: #76/#26
Returning: #131 Portal: #46 Pure Str: #105 Program Rank: #68
2026 Proj: 10-2 (7.7-4.3) Bowl: 75% Conf: MAC #2

Toledo suffers the MAC curse and the coaching-change curse at the same time, losing almost the whole squad to the transfer portal. The defense is hit especially hard but they recover better via transfers themselves, mostly from Mercer whence new coach Mike Jacobs hails. Toledo falls from #50 to #89 but the whole MAC falls with them so they still wind up near the top.
```
 *Toledo  (10-2)     SOS #132
 1 @ # 60 Michigan St         33.6
 2    FCS Central Conn St     89.4
 3   #104 Temple              65.1
 4   # 62 San Diego St        44.2
 5 @ #134 Ball St             70.7
 6   #127 Buffalo             73.5
 7 @ #110 Eastern Michigan    59.3
 8   # 92 Western Michigan    56.6
 9 @ #125 Sacramento St       64.0
10   #138 Massachusetts       85.2
11   #114 Bowling Green       69.6
12 @ #102 Ohio U.             53.8
```
Toledo is saved by having the #132 schedule. Even Michigan State and San Diego State can't spoil the party as the Rockets look to go undefeated in MAC play. This is unlikely as there are many close calls and an 8-4 overall finish is likely. That might be good enough to make the MAC championship game.
Boston College Eagles
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #90 Off/Def: #75/#101
Returning: #86 Portal: #65 Pure Str: #91 Program Rank: #79
2026 Proj: 2-10 (3.8-8.2) Bowl: 26% Conf: ACC #17

Boston College treads water in the lower reaches of the ACC according to our projection. The Eagles retain a fair amount on defense and bring in a few ringers on offense, but it doesn't move the needle; they finished 2025 at #90 and that's where they begin 2026.
```
 *Boston College  (2-10)   SOS #31
 1 @ # 61 Cincinnati          33.4
 2   # 48 Rutgers             36.5
 3    FCS Maine               84.6
 4   # 36 Virginia Tech       28.8
 5 @ # 27 SMU                 18.6
 6   # 35 Pittsburgh          28.8
 7 @ # 56 Georgia Tech        29.0
 8 @ # 42 Duke                24.7
 9   # 38 Florida St          31.6
10 @ #  2 Notre Dame           2.2
11   # 81 Syracuse            51.8
12 @ # 13 Miami FL             9.7
```
BC also schedules Notre Dame this year. Add in Cincy and Rutgers and the Eagles probably need five ACC wins to reach a bowl game. That's a 26% proposition in our book. Odds are they get a few upsets and improve on last year's 2-10 record, but that's not guaranteed.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2025 Results: (1-11) Str: #113 Off/Def: #123/#100
Returning: #138 Portal: #2 Pure Str: #88 Program Rank: #85
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.1-7.9) Bowl: 29% Conf: B12 #16

Oklahoma State had a disastrous 1-11 season last year, enough for the team to fire forever-coach Mike Gundy. New coach Eric Morris suffers the consequences: total squad depletion via the transfer portal. But as bad as they do in returning talent, they finish #2 in Portal ranking, adding a slew of transfers especially on offense. Morris came from North Texas and brought 18 players with him, including the starting QB, RB, WR, and 2 on the O-Line. On defense three starters came over. From nothing they build to a serviceable team which could resemble last year's #28 Strength North Texas team. It's hard to handle this situation and our bump for the Cowboys might be too small as the offense will clearly be much, much better.
```
 *Oklahoma St  (2-10)    SOS #39
 1 @ #115 Tulsa               60.7
 2   #  3 Oregon               6.2
 3    FCS Murray St           89.5
 4 @ # 65 West Virginia       36.2
 5   # 52 Central Florida     36.5
 6 @ # 20 Houston             16.1
 7   # 54 Colorado            37.6
 8 @ # 72 Iowa St             38.5
 9 @ # 29 Kansas St           19.2
10   #  9 Texas Tech           9.7
11 @ # 45 Arizona St          24.9
12   # 44 Kansas              34.7
```
We show only mild improvement for the Cowboys. They still play a tough schedule and there are no easy games outside of Tulsa and Murray State. They should win a few more by chance and finish 4-8, but the bump could be bigger and it's hard to say by how much. The game to watch is Oregon at home; if they're competitive at all after last year's 69-3 blowout, the Cowboys could be onto something.
Western Michigan Broncos
2025 Results: (10-4) Str: #75 Off/Def: #104/#43
Returning: #32 Portal: #118 Pure Str: #77 Program Rank: #102
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.8-5.2) Bowl: 66% Conf: MAC #3

The Broncos won 10 games last year with a lousy offense, but they return their QB, RB, and several receivers. The problem is that their defense—solid last season—loses a lot, and they don't bring much at all from the Portal.
```
 *Western Michigan  (9-3)  SOS #99
 1 @ # 15 Michigan            10.3
 2    FCS Monmouth NJ         74.7
 3 @ #124 Rice                62.3
 4   # 50 Boise St            36.4
 5 @ #127 Buffalo             63.5
 6   #136 Kent St             77.6
 7 @ #111 Central Michigan    59.8
 8 @ # 89 Toledo              43.4
 9   #114 Bowling Green       69.4
10 @ #123 Akron               63.2
11   #110 Eastern Michigan    67.9
12   # 83 Miami OH            52.0
```
Regardless, they're 3rd in the MAC and once they get past Michigan and Boise State, the MAC games are all winnable. We see a loss at Toledo, and Miami will be tough even in Kalamazoo. Most likely they finish 7-5, but a MAC title run is realistic; even though they've dropped a bit, so has the rest of the league.
Oregon State Beavers
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #106 Off/Def: #118/#94
Returning: #34 Portal: #103 Pure Str: #93 Program Rank: #84
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.0-7.0) Bowl: 43% Conf: P12 #7

Poor Oregon State. The Beavers kept the Pac-12 alive but trying to play football in a 2-team conference for two years nearly ruined the program, which ranks just #84 in the nation now and was just #106 in Strength last year and dismissed their coach mid-season. This year should be better as the Beavers managed to hold on to a decent group of players even if they didn't get much Portal action. Still, they end up 7th out of 8 teams in the rebuilt conference with a new coach.
```
 *Oregon St  (4-8)     SOS #72
 1 @ # 20 Houston             15.9
 2   #  9 Texas Tech          10.0
 3    FCS Montana             56.0
 4 @ #132 UTEP                68.3
 5 @ #113 Colorado St         59.8
 6   # 62 San Diego St        42.9
 7   # 71 Washington St       47.8
 8 @ # 70 Fresno St           36.1
 9   # 73 Texas State         48.2
10 @ # 50 Boise St            27.9
11   # 80 Utah St             50.4
12 @ # 71 Washington St*      37.0
```
The Beavers scheduled Houston and Texas Texas so it's a rough start, and Montana is a pretty damn good FCS team so that's not a guaranteed win by any means. UTEP should be a win, and Colorado State is the #8 conference team. Utah State may be a close win, too. The rest are probable losses, however, most losses are very close and 5-7 is their expected record with a decent 43% chance of bowl eligibility. Surely they can beat Washington State one out of two? (Note that the road game vs. WSU may be altered by the Pac-12)
Marshall Thundering Herd
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #97 Off/Def: #82/#109
Returning: #49 Portal: #111 Pure Str: #92 Program Rank: #86
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.9-5.1) Bowl: 69% Conf: SunE#3

Marshall returns quite a bit on offense but not as much on defense, and their Portal take is fairly inconsequential. We see slight improvement if any, but treading water leaves them ahead of most of the Sun Belt.
```
 *Marshall  (9-3)    SOS #87
 1 @ #  5 Penn State           5.3
 2   #133 Middle Tennessee St 76.8
 3 @ #128 Missouri St         63.7
 4    FCS Gardner-Webb        79.7
 5 @ # 75 James Madison       38.4
 6   #109 Coastal Carolina    65.6
 7   # 99 South Alabama       59.7
 8 @ # 87 Old Dominion        42.9
 9 @ #101 Georgia Southern    50.6
10   #116 Appalachian St      70.1
11   #122 Georgia St          70.2
12 @ #131 Louisiana-Monroe    67.2
```
Marshall again schedules a huge team for their opener (it was Georgia last season), but the wins should pick up right away from there. James Madison and Old Dominion are probably losses again, but they will be the favorite elsewhere. Going 9-3 will be tough (Georgia Southern is a tossup, for example), but they should make a bowl game.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
2025 Results: (9-5) Str: #103 Off/Def: #106/#105
Returning: #50 Portal: #104 Pure Str: #97 Program Rank: #97
2026 Proj: 8-4 (7.0-5.0) Bowl: 66% Conf: CUSA#2

The Gamecocks loses a lot on offense and almost as much on D. Like most Group of Six teams, they don't cover the losses with the Portal. But they end up our #2 C-USA team which means they should expect a number of conference wins.
```
 *Jacksonville St  (8-4)  SOS #128
 1 @ # 59 North Dakota St     27.1
 2    FCS Eastern Kentucky    73.0
 3 @ #102 Ohio U.             47.1
 4   #101 Georgia Southern    56.2
 5   #133 Middle Tennessee St 72.3
 6 @ #117 Kennesaw St         57.3
 7   #126 Florida Int'l       67.8
 8 @ #118 New Mexico St       56.3
 9   #135 Sam Houston St      74.0
10 @ # 96 Western Kentucky    45.9
11   #128 Missouri St         68.6
12 @ #105 Delaware            49.7
```
The Gamecocks' first game is the hardest: FBS rookie North Dakota State. Jacksonville State fans know how good the Bison are, having lost to them in the FCS title game in 37-10 in 2016. Ohio from the MAC will be a tough road test, and two more close games—Western Kentucky and Delaware—are tagged as losses, but 3 of the 4 "losses" are very close. So are a lot of their wins, too, and a 7-5 record isn't too bad of a result.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #91 Off/Def: #90/#83
Returning: #92 Portal: #77 Pure Str: #106 Program Rank: #93
2026 Proj: 9-3 (6.2-5.8) Bowl: 61% Conf: CUSA#3

Like most Group of Six teams, WKU loses a lot of their squad and doesn't gain a lot back from the Portal. Their losses happen on both offense and defense, and they do get some transfer help on the O-Line. And despite everything they finish ranked 3rd in Conference USA.
```
 *Western Kentucky  (9-3)  SOS #66
 1 @ #120 Nevada              57.5
 2 @ # 10 Georgia              5.1
 3 @ #  1 Indiana              1.2
 4    FCS Mercyhurst          92.6
 5 @ #118 New Mexico St       55.4
 6   #128 Missouri St         68.3
 7 @ #135 Sam Houston St      64.7
 8   #105 Delaware            57.6
 9 @ #133 Middle Tennessee St 63.3
10   # 95 Jacksonville St     54.1
11 @ # 88 Liberty             37.2
12   #117 Kennesaw St         66.0
```
WKU has a *very* tough schedule for a C-USA team, but luckily that's concentrated in an early 1-2 punch from Georgia and Indiana. After that, the only likely loss is at Liberty. Very few are decisive wins, however, which puts their expectation closer to 6-6. Somewhere between 6 and 9 wins is where we expect them to fall. If the Hilltoppers start 1-0 it should be a good year; if they start 3-0 we need to re-evaluate our #96 pick.
Florida Atlantic Owls
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #111 Off/Def: #70/#135
Returning: #21 Portal: #93 Pure Str: #79 Program Rank: #112
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.8-6.2) Bowl: 53% Conf: AAc #9

FAU is in the top 25 in percentage of talent returning. They really need the help on defense where they ranked in the bottom five nationally, and they get some Portal help there too. The Owls should improve but the defense is still a big concern.
```
 *Florida Atlantic (5-7)  SOS #109
 1 @ # 34 Florida             15.6
 2   # 69 Navy                39.8
 3   #126 Florida Int'l       66.5
 4 @ #131 Louisiana-Monroe    61.7
 5    FCS Texas Southern      90.1
 6 @ # 67 Army                29.6
 7   #124 Rice                65.8
 8 @ # 82 North Texas         35.5
 9   # 76 UTSA                43.1
10 @ #115 Tulsa               54.2
11   # 74 South Florida       42.2
12 @ # 86 East Carolina       36.6
```
Game-by-game we see improvement from 4-8 to 5-7 and adding up the odds the Owls have a 53% chance to get to 6-6.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
2025 Results: (8-5) Str: #89 Off/Def: #99/#74
Returning: #47 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #87 Program Rank: #107
2026 Proj: 5-7 (6.0-6.0) Bowl: 56% Conf: SunW#1

The Bulldogs do a decent job of holding on to their players but don't add much more from the Portal. They still finish #1 in the Sun Belt West which puts them in contention for a conference championship game appearance.
```
 *Louisiana Tech  (5-7)   SOS #91
 1    FCS Northwestern St     94.9
 2 @ # 17 LSU                  8.8
 3 @ # 47 Baylor              21.7
 4   # 67 Army                38.5
 5   #100 UL-Lafayette        55.6
 6 @ #131 Louisiana-Monroe    62.2
 7   # 87 Old Dominion        47.1
 8 @ # 99 South Alabama       44.9
 9 @ #103 Troy                47.4
10   #137 Southern Miss       75.5
11   #107 Arkansas St         58.8
12 @ #101 Georgia Southern    44.9
```
The Bulldogs are #1 in the West but play the #2, #3, and #4 West teams on the road, so those become "losses"! Scheduling LSU, Baylor, and Army adds three more. They have a 56% chance to make a bowl game, but 6-6 won't win the West if they lose several tiebreakers to their key divisional foes.
South Alabama Jaguars
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #115 Off/Def: #108/#120
Returning: #63 Portal: #122 Pure Str: #110 Program Rank: #90
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.3-5.7) Bowl: 59% Conf: SunW#2

Another Sun Belt team, another team with pretty typical losses, equally poor on offense and defense, and almost no Portal help. Last year was a down year for the program so some recovery is expected, enough to rank the Jaguars #2 in the Sun Belt West.
```
 *South Alabama  (7-5)  SOS #118
 1    FCS SE Louisiana        69.2
 2 @ # 64 Tulane              28.9
 3   #102 Ohio U.             56.0
 4 @ # 53 Kentucky            22.9
 5   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    71.5
 6 @ #107 Arkansas St         49.6
 7 @ # 94 Marshall            40.3
 8   # 98 Louisiana Tech      55.1
 9 @ #100 UL-Lafayette        45.8
10   #103 Troy                57.6
11 @ #137 Southern Miss       68.0
12   #116 Appalachian St      64.6
```
Tulane and Kentucky are two early hurdles but their in-conference performance should be pretty good. Three of the "wins" are really tight but so are three "losses" so 7-5 or 6-6 looks about right.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
2025 Results: (6-7) Str: #116 Off/Def: #113/#116
Returning: #41 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #101 Program Rank: #99
2026 Proj: 10-2 (6.6-5.4) Bowl: 64% Conf: SunW#3

Yet another Sun Belt (West) team. The Cajuns return most of their starters on offense but the defense is sapped. Again, no Portal help.
```
 *UL-Lafayette  (10-2)   SOS #93
 1    FCS Lamar               77.5
 2 @ #  7 Southern Cal         4.2
 3   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  67.9
 4 @ #129 UNC-Charlotte       59.1
 5   #107 Arkansas St         58.9
 6 @ # 98 Louisiana Tech      44.4
 7   #103 Troy                56.6
 8 @ #137 Southern Miss       65.5
 9   # 99 South Alabama       54.3
10 @ #131 Louisiana-Monroe    61.0
11   #109 Coastal Carolina    59.8
12 @ #122 Georgia St          55.5
```
Louisiana is Sun Belt West #3, and their schedule rates as tougher than both the #1 and #2 conference team—yet they are 10-2 game by game! That's because the toughness of their schedule is concentrated in USC, while the others play 2 or 3 reasonably tough teams. ULL takes just one certain loss and a close loss at Louisiana Tech (the West #1 team). Again, the odds collapse the expectation of all these 50/50-ish games down to 7-5 or even 6-6, but the potential is there for a really good season with a conference title game appearance.
Georgia Southern Eagles
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #108 Off/Def: #86/#124
Returning: #89 Portal: #59 Pure Str: #102 Program Rank: #100
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.7-6.3) Bowl: 51% Conf: SunE#4

The Eagles are the rare Sun Belt team that gets significant help from the Portal. On offense they lose most contributors and while they pull in an O-Line starter from Charlotte, it's not enough to boost the #86 offense. The terrible defense should improve though.
```
 *Georgia Southern (5-7)  SOS #101
 1    FCS Charleston Southern 84.1
 2 @ # 43 Clemson             19.6
 3 @ # 95 Jacksonville St     43.8
 4   # 20 Houston             17.5
 5 @ #109 Coastal Carolina    51.0
 6   # 75 James Madison       42.4
 7 @ # 87 Old Dominion        36.6
 8   #116 Appalachian St      64.3
 9   # 94 Marshall            49.4
10 @ #122 Georgia St          56.1
11 @ #103 Troy                47.0
12   # 98 Louisiana Tech      55.1
```
There is so much parity in the Sun Belt it seems almost everyone averages out to 6-6. GSU playing Clemson and Houston doesn't help their case. 7 of 12 games are in the 42-56% range, so 5-7 or 6-6 is a good guess, with bowl eligibility a coin flip.
Ohio U. Bobcats
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #87 Off/Def: #87/#78
Returning: #112 Portal: #121 Pure Str: #122 Program Rank: #83
2026 Proj: 8-4 (6.5-5.5) Bowl: 62% Conf: MAC #4

The Bobcats had a good 2025 but lose almost everyone on offense and the defense doesn't exactly come back loaded. Again, no major Portal help for this MAC team, yet despite the downgrade they rank 4th in the MAC, since the lowering tide sinks all ships in that conference.
```
 *Ohio U.  (8-4)   SOS #113
 1 @ # 23 Nebraska            12.7
 2   # 95 Jacksonville St     52.9
 3 @ # 99 South Alabama       44.1
 4    FCS Stonehill           90.9
 5 @ #136 Kent St             63.0
 6   #111 Central Michigan    61.5
 7 @ #125 Sacramento St       56.1
 8   #110 Eastern Michigan    60.2
 9 @ #123 Akron               55.8
10 @ # 83 Miami OH            35.0
11   #134 Ball St             70.9
12   # 89 Toledo              46.2
```
After a tough trio of games in the pre-conference season the MAC games are manageable. Miami and Toledo are the expected losses and those come near the end. Overall the Bobcats project as 8-4 game by game but 6 or 7 wins is most likely.
Troy Trojans
2025 Results: (8-6) Str: #100 Off/Def: #119/#81
Returning: #108 Portal: #87 Pure Str: #116 Program Rank: #91
2026 Proj: 6-6 (6.1-5.9) Bowl: 57% Conf: SunW#4

Teams at this level tend to lose most of their good players, and not get much from the Portal. Troy follows that for the most part, with the defense getting hit even worse than the offense. They do bring in a starting offensive lineman from Ohio, and the entire O-Line is looking pretty damn good! But the rest is a question mark.
```
 *Troy  (6-6)    SOS #110
 1   #135 Sam Houston St      71.1
 2    FCS Alabama St          80.1
 3 @ # 26 Missouri            12.8
 4 @ # 80 Utah St             33.4
 5   #137 Southern Miss       73.8
 6 @ #100 UL-Lafayette        43.4
 7   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    68.8
 8 @ # 75 James Madison       31.9
 9   # 98 Louisiana Tech      52.6
10 @ # 99 South Alabama       42.4
11   #101 Georgia Southern    53.1
12 @ #107 Arkansas St         47.2
```
Troy probably wins the two home games and loses the two road games before the Sun Belt season, and that pattern may continue during their conference stand, putting them at 6-6.
Temple Owls
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #92 Off/Def: #72/#106
Returning: #42 Portal: #128 Pure Str: #85 Program Rank: #120
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.1-6.9) Bowl: 44% Conf: AAc #10

Temple has been very weak lately but last year was promising. The offense has potential to be quite good, especially the offensive line, but the defense may get worse. Portal assistance is very limited. Overall they show improvement but they could regress to their recent program mean. KC Keeler had the Owls moving in the right direction in his first year, however.
```
 *Temple  (5-7)    SOS #83
 1    FCS Rhode Island        66.5
 2   #  5 Penn State           5.4
 3 @ # 89 Toledo              34.9
 4   # 67 Army                35.6
 5 @ # 74 South Florida       30.6
 6   #108 Connecticut         56.4
 7   #129 UNC-Charlotte       65.9
 8 @ # 86 East Carolina       33.4
 9 @ # 69 Navy                27.5
10   #130 Alabama-Birmingham  66.3
11   #124 Rice                64.0
12 @ # 63 Memphis             25.4
```
A tough pre-season might cost the Owls a bowl bid. Rhode Island and UConn aren't easy outs for Temple and Penn State and Toledo are probable losses. In conference there are four tough road games and Army at home will be a challenge. Looks like a repeat of 5-7 from where we're standing—unless the program really is emerging from its somber days.
Delaware Blue Hens
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #117 Off/Def: #94/#130
Returning: #11 Portal: #117 Pure Str: #83 Program Rank: #122
2026 Proj: 8-4 (5.9-6.1) Bowl: 56% Conf: CUSA#4

Delaware got to a bowl game with the #117 Strength rating last year, so this season should be a breeze as the Hens return a solid portion of their offense and defense, nearly ranking in the top ten in returning production. If not for their low Program Strength putting a damper on things we would have them 20 spots higher!
```
 *Delaware  (8-4)    SOS #88
 1    FCS Merrimack           81.9
 2 @ # 22 Vanderbilt          11.8
 3   #109 Coastal Carolina    57.6
 4 @ # 30 Virginia            13.2
 5   # 88 Liberty             43.7
 6 @ #133 Middle Tennessee St 60.4
 7   #128 Missouri St         64.8
 8 @ # 96 Western Kentucky    42.4
 9 @ #117 Kennesaw St         52.6
10   #126 Florida Int'l       63.9
11 @ #118 New Mexico St       51.9
12   # 95 Jacksonville St     50.3
```
It will be close but Delaware should make it to a bowl game again, maybe even going 8-4 against a schedule with two almost guaranteed losses: at Vanderbilt and at Virginia. Apart from that they show 8-2 game by game, though note that three "wins" are razor-close: at Kennesaw State, at New Mexico State and Jacksonville State. Their cume total is slightly below 6 games for this reason, but their bowl odds are 56%.
Hawai`i Rainbow Warriors
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #86 Off/Def: #78/#82
Returning: #80 Portal: #113 Pure Str: #103 Program Rank: #108
2026 Proj: 6-6 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 51% Conf: MWC #5

Hawaii returns a sprinkling of starters on offense and defense, but without Portal help they regress toward the Progam mean established the last four years under Timmy Chang.
```
 *Hawai`i  (6-6)   SOS #115
 1 @ # 66 Stanford            26.9
 2   # 85 UNLV                42.3
 3   #118 New Mexico St       61.6
 4 @ #112 Wyoming             49.9
 5   #121 San Jose St         62.9
 6 @ # 45 Arizona St          17.7
 7   # 79 New Mexico          40.4
 8 @ #119 N Illinois          52.0
 9 @ #132 UTEP                59.1
10   # 59 North Dakota St     31.8
11 @ #120 Nevada              52.7
12   #125 Sacramento St       63.6
```
The Warriors have a ton of close games, and with their home/away situation we can probably safely amplify home field advantage which could give them wins vs. UNLV, New Mexico, even North Dakota State possibly. On the other hand, close wins at Northern Illinois, UTEP, and Nevada are suspect. 6-6 seems like a good estimate, but according to the odds bowl eligibility is about a 50/50 call.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #110 Off/Def: #116/#108
Returning: #43 Portal: #114 Pure Str: #99 Program Rank: #113
2026 Proj: 7-5 (6.0-6.0) Bowl: 56% Conf: SunW#5

The Red Wolves' offensive line should be a strong point while the defense may take a step back. Overall not much change in ranking, and they made it to a bowl game last year with similar Strength.
```
 *Arkansas St  (7-5)   SOS #106
 1 @ # 63 Memphis             24.2
 2    FCS West Georgia        75.0
 3 @ # 28 TCU                 12.6
 4   #117 Kennesaw St         60.8
 5 @ #100 UL-Lafayette        41.1
 6   # 99 South Alabama       50.5
 7 @ #137 Southern Miss       63.7
 8   #122 Georgia St          62.2
 9   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    66.9
10 @ #109 Coastal Carolina    46.8
11 @ # 98 Louisiana Tech      41.2
12   #103 Troy                52.8
```
A repeat bowl bid might come down to a very close game with Troy, as the cumulative estimate has 6 wins right on the nose. Game-by-game they would be at 6 wins after beating ULM, but that means they have to win the 50/50 game with South Alabama. Note that there are no dominant victories here, so a really bad year is a possibility. But there are only a few solid losses, too.
Connecticut Huskies
2025 Results: (9-4) Str: #85 Off/Def: #63/#95
Returning: #134 Portal: #44 Pure Str: #121 Program Rank: #95
2026 Proj: 3-9 (5.5-6.5) Bowl: 50% Conf: Ind #2

Life is tough for Independents in today's college football, when you aren't Notre Dame. It's bad for teams who lose their coach, too. So pity poor UConn, the independent who lost Jim Mora to Colorado State, and then lost almost their entire team to the transfer Portal. New coach Jason Candle does bring in some defensive stars via the Portal, two of them starters at his former school, Toledo.
```
 *Connecticut  (3-9)   SOS #127
 1    FCS Lafayette           73.2
 2   # 39 Maryland            22.2
 3 @ #137 Southern Miss       63.8
 4 @ # 83 Miami OH            32.7
 5   # 81 Syracuse            40.0
 6 @ #104 Temple              43.6
 7   #138 Massachusetts       77.0
 8 @ # 84 Air Force           31.2
 9   # 78 North Carolina      39.7
10   # 75 James Madison       38.6
11   # 87 Old Dominion        41.7
12 @ #112 Wyoming             49.7
```
UConn's schedule isn't tough—#127—but it's tough enough that most of the games may be just out of the Huskies' reach. Game by game it looks bad, 3-9, but those close games might add up to wins. We have them making a bowl 50.4% of the time so there is hope! But the game-by-game tally is hard to dismiss out of hand.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
2025 Results: (6-7) Str: #127 Off/Def: #112/#131
Returning: #104 Portal: #55 Pure Str: #112 Program Rank: #109
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.4-6.6) Bowl: 48% Conf: SunE#5

The typical roster depletion hits Coastal Carolina, but on offense the Chanticleers flip the script and bring in several Portal transfers themselves to re-supply the offensive line. The team should be a lot better than last year's model, but still end up #5 in the Sun East.
```
 *Coastal Carolina (4-8)  SOS #130
 1 @ # 65 West Virginia       24.2
 2    FCS Fordham             81.6
 3 @ #105 Delaware            42.4
 4   # 88 Liberty             40.7
 5   #101 Georgia Southern    49.0
 6 @ # 94 Marshall            34.4
 7   #116 Appalachian St      58.8
 8 @ #122 Georgia St          50.7
 9   # 87 Old Dominion        40.9
10   #107 Arkansas St         53.2
11 @ #100 UL-Lafayette        40.2
12 @ # 75 James Madison       28.4
```
Despite a very weak schedule the Chanticleers may miss a bowl game for the first time since 2019. Four wins, and some of those are very close, as are many of the losses, and they end up with a 48% chance of bowl eligibility.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #125 Off/Def: #110/#132
Returning: #15 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #95 Program Rank: #125
2026 Proj: 7-5 (5.8-6.2) Bowl: 54% Conf: MAC #5

Unlike almost every other MAC team, the Eagles return more than half their key players on both offense and defense. No tangible Portal benefits but that's ok, the Eagles soar despite their poor Program strength putting a reality check on progress.
```
 *Eastern Michigan  (7-5) SOS #116
 1   #125 Sacramento St       60.0
 2   #121 San Jose St         59.7
 3 @ # 60 Michigan St         21.1
 4 @ # 51 Wisconsin           17.0
 5    FCS Lindenwood          75.3
 6 @ #138 Massachusetts       66.4
 7 @ #123 Akron               50.1
 8   # 89 Toledo              40.7
 9 @ #102 Ohio U.             39.8
10   #111 Central Michigan    56.2
11 @ # 92 Western Michigan    32.1
12   #136 Kent St             67.1
```
For such a low-level program Eastern Michigan gets to a bowl game quite often, but the last was in 2023. This year looks good as the Eagles are favorites in 7 games. Take away the two sacrificial Big Ten games and that's 7-3 among their peers. Admittedly the Akron "win" is very much 50/50, and the cume estimate is just below 6 wins with 54% bowl odds.
Central Michigan Chippewas
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #104 Off/Def: #121/#91
Returning: #74 Portal: #109 Pure Str: #109 Program Rank: #119
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.5-6.5) Bowl: 49% Conf: MAC #6

The Chippewas don't return a whole lot of talent, especially on defense, and their own Portal haul is more like a minnow on the line. 2nd year coach Matt Drinkall has the program pointed in the right direction so far, though.
```
 *Central Michigan  (5-7) SOS #100
 1 @ # 79 New Mexico          27.5
 2    FCS Colgate             77.9
 3   #112 Wyoming             55.1
 4 @ # 13 Miami FL             4.9
 5   #123 Akron               58.4
 6 @ #102 Ohio U.             38.5
 7   # 92 Western Michigan    40.2
 8   # 83 Miami OH            37.4
 9 @ #110 Eastern Michigan    43.8
10   #125 Sacramento St       57.7
11 @ #127 Buffalo             49.7
12 @ #134 Ball St             55.4
```
How close will CMU get to a bowl game? 49% is what the odds say, straddled between 5-7 and 6-6. That sixth win might be Buffalo in the 2nd to last game, where the Chippewas have a 49.7% chance to win. Since going bowling probably requires winning three tossups at the very end, it probably means no bowl game this year. Not enough leeway.
Wyoming Cowboys
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #101 Off/Def: #135/#58
Returning: #116 Portal: #106 Pure Str: #127 Program Rank: #104
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.5-6.5) Bowl: 50% Conf: MWC #6

Very few starters are back from last year's horrible offense, nor from the surprisingly effective defense. The running game looks like the best bet this season. That, and counting on the Mountain West to get a lot worse, which is a better bet.
```
 *Wyoming  (5-7)   SOS #126
 1 @ #113 Colorado St         45.5
 2    FCS Northern Colorado   79.8
 3 @ #111 Central Michigan    44.9
 4   #106 Hawai`i             50.1
 5 @ # 59 North Dakota St     19.8
 6 @ #121 San Jose St         47.7
 7   #119 N Illinois          57.5
 8   # 84 Air Force           37.3
 9 @ # 85 UNLV                29.0
10 @ #132 UTEP                54.6
11   # 79 New Mexico          35.5
12   #108 Connecticut         50.3
```
Game by game the Cowboys are 5-7 but that includes razor-thin odds over Hawaii (50.1%) and UConn (50.3). Yet, add it all up and run the odds and Wyoming makes it by a sliver (50.1% to make a bowl game). I have my doubts!
Colorado State Rams
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #114 Off/Def: #117/#112
Returning: #124 Portal: #56 Pure Str: #117 Program Rank: #111
2026 Proj: 2-10 (3.8-8.2) Bowl: 28% Conf: P12 #8

How will Jim Mora do in his first year at Colorado State? Like most 1st year coaches he was left with very little: 1 starter back on offense and only a few on defense. But he brings a few defensive starters over from UConn, and Huskie backups fill other slots. Enough to hold the line until the real rebuilding can begin.
```
 *Colorado St  (2-10) SOS #97
 1   #112 Wyoming             54.5
 2    FCS Southern Utah       57.8
 3   # 21 Brigham Young       13.0
 4 @ # 76 UTSA                26.3
 5   # 93 Oregon St           40.2
 6 @ # 73 Texas State         25.6
 7   # 62 San Diego St        29.3
 8 @ # 80 Utah St             28.2
 9   # 50 Boise St            23.8
10 @ # 71 Washington St       24.2
11 @ # 70 Fresno St           23.7
12   # 73 Texas State*        33.9
```
Similar Strength rating, similar results: 2-10, and those two wins are pretty tight and come in the first 2 games. Ten straight losses? There will probably be a few upset wins there so 3-9 or 4-8 is more likely. But going winless is an option, too.
Bowling Green Falcons
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #119 Off/Def: #130/#88
Returning: #98 Portal: #127 Pure Str: #124 Program Rank: #106
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.1-6.9) Bowl: 44% Conf: MAC #7

Typical MAC story: lots of players gone, and not a lot came back in via the Portal. Eddie George's 2nd-year team still might be a little bit better due to the program rebounding from year one woes.
```
 *Bowling Green  (4-8) SOS #111
 1    FCS Tarleton St         48.4
 2 @ # 23 Nebraska             9.5
 3 @ # 72 Iowa St             25.9
 4   # 74 South Florida       33.8
 5 @ # 83 Miami OH            27.9
 6   #125 Sacramento St       58.3
 7   #134 Ball St             63.8
 8 @ #127 Buffalo             48.6
 9 @ # 92 Western Michigan    30.6
10   #136 Kent St             65.4
11 @ # 89 Toledo              30.4
12   #138 Massachusetts       72.5
```
The Falcons should match last year's record or maybe exceed it. Tarleton State is a tough FCS team to open against, but at home they ought to be able to get that win. Then with an upset at Buffalo they're at six wins. It's a 44% chance in our books.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #105 Off/Def: #111/#104
Returning: #72 Portal: #75 Pure Str: #100 Program Rank: #128
2026 Proj: 3-9 (4.8-7.2) Bowl: 39% Conf: AAc #11

Tulsa doesn't do great with returning talent, nor with Portal transfers, but they do enough of a middling job with each to keep from dropping too much. The program's recent (lack of) strength hurts them, too.
```
 *Tulsa  (3-9)   SOS #105
 1   # 91 Oklahoma St         39.3
 2 @ #135 Sam Houston St      56.3
 3    FCS East Texas A&M      81.6
 4 @ # 41 Arkansas            13.4
 5   # 82 North Texas         36.4
 6 @ # 69 Navy                23.4
 7 @ #124 Rice                49.0
 8   # 67 Army                30.0
 9 @ # 64 Tulane              22.5
10   # 97 Florida Atlantic    45.8
11   #129 UNC-Charlotte       60.3
12 @ # 76 UTSA                26.1
```
Only three games look like wins, with the usual close calls that might bring it up to 5-7 but that sixth win is unlikely.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
2025 Results: (5-8) Str: #122 Off/Def: #120/#119
Returning: #122 Portal: #98 Pure Str: #133 Program Rank: #105
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.1-6.9) Bowl: 43% Conf: SunE#6

Equally bad on offense and defense last year, the Mountaineers lack of returning talent at least means they get a fresh start. The program hit a low in Dowell Loggains' first year and they'll recover a bit.
```
 *Appalachian St  (4-8)  SOS #123
 1    FCS Maine               71.8
 2 @ # 86 East Carolina       28.4
 3   #129 UNC-Charlotte       59.5
 4 @ # 55 NC State            16.7
 5   # 87 Old Dominion        37.2
 6 @ #109 Coastal Carolina    41.2
 7   # 75 James Madison       33.0
 8 @ #101 Georgia Southern    35.7
 9   #122 Georgia St          56.9
10 @ # 94 Marshall            29.9
11   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    61.5
12 @ # 99 South Alabama       35.4
```
But will their record improve? Maybe not. App State made it to a bowl at 5-7 last year and by that standard they are likely to repeat; not if they need six wins, however.
Kennesaw State Owls
2025 Results: (10-4) Str: #96 Off/Def: #92/#99
Returning: #77 Portal: #85 Pure Str: #96 Program Rank: #135
2026 Proj: 5-7 (5.4-6.6) Bowl: 48% Conf: CUSA#5

The Owls went 10-3 before losing a bowl game in their 2nd FBS season, jumping from 2-10 to 10-4. They should finish somewhere between those extremes this time. They do return a lot of their defense so on paper they're just as good as last year but their Program Rank suggests a reversion to the mean in Jerry Mack's 2nd year.
```
 *Kennesaw St  (5-7)  SOS #103
 1    FCS West Georgia        69.9
 2   #122 Georgia St          56.0
 3 @ # 16 Tennessee            5.0
 4 @ #107 Arkansas St         39.2
 5   # 95 Jacksonville St     42.7
 6 @ #128 Missouri St         48.2
 7   # 88 Liberty             36.1
 8 @ #133 Middle Tennessee St 52.3
 9   #105 Delaware            47.5
10 @ #135 Sam Houston St      54.6
11   #126 Florida Int'l       57.0
12 @ # 96 Western Kentucky    34.0
```
There are a lot of winnable games here but only 5 where they are favored, and 5-7 is roughly where they end up using cumulative odds. They have a 48% chance of going back to a bowl.
New Mexico State Aggies
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #124 Off/Def: #129/#110
Returning: #57 Portal: #79 Pure Str: #107 Program Rank: #127
2026 Proj: 3-9 (5.5-6.5) Bowl: 49.8% Conf: CUSA#6

We're seeing that low-level Group of Six teams tend to get most of their Portal help on the offensive line. The Aggies' Portal help confirms this. Their Returning talent score is mostly from Defense where 4 of the top 6 tacklers are back.
```
 *New Mexico St  (3-9)  SOS #119
 1 @ # 38 Florida St          11.7
 2    FCS Mercyhurst          87.9
 3 @ #106 Hawai`i             38.4
 4   # 79 New Mexico          34.6
 5   # 96 Western Kentucky    44.6
 6 @ #126 Florida Int'l       48.4
 7 @ #135 Sam Houston St      55.0
 8   # 95 Jacksonville St     43.7
 9   # 88 Liberty             36.9
10 @ #128 Missouri St         48.6
11   #105 Delaware            48.1
12 @ #133 Middle Tennessee St 52.7
```
Whether NM State makes a bowl depends on almost every game in the C-USA season, most of which are close to tossups. The first four games are a bit more certain—probably 1-3, so they need to win 5 of their last 8. They'll be favored in two of them, both road games. Despite the 3-9 game by game projection they are on the brink of a bowl bid, about as close to 50/50 as you can get, but they might need a killer run in the last 3 games.
Northern Illinois Huskies
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #126 Off/Def: #134/#97
Returning: #111 Portal: #100 Pure Str: #126 Program Rank: #110
2026 Proj: 3-9 (4.5-7.5) Bowl: 36% Conf: MWC #7

Last year's offense was terrible but should actually improve quite a bit given the production returning, mainly in the receiving corps. The defense is just wiped out. The Huskies were terrible last year and may be just as bad this season but the program's strength suggests a small improvement under new coach Rob Harley. We'll see.
```
 *Northern Illinois  (3-9)   SOS #84
 1 @ # 37 Iowa                11.7
 2    FCS Illinois St         50.6
 3 @ # 25 Arizona              8.7
 4 @ #122 Georgia St          46.5
 5   # 84 Air Force           35.4
 6 @ #112 Wyoming             42.6
 7   #106 Hawai`i             48.0
 8 @ # 85 UNLV                27.8
 9 @ #121 San Jose St         46.2
10   #120 Nevada              56.0
11 @ # 59 North Dakota St     18.4
12   #132 UTEP                61.9
```
Northern Illinois plays at Iowa and Arizona, and the home game in-between is no FCS gimme game—we have the Huskies a coin flip over Illinois State. And Georgia State at home is just as close of a loss. Then the conference games start and for some reason, Northern Illinois is in the Mountain West now. They will immediately feel the consequences of this, with road trips to the following states: Wyoming, Nevada, California, and North Dakota. Add the Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia trips and that's a hell of a lot of travel in 7 road games. Only Iowa is a reasonable distance and they don't even get to go to Hawaii. We see three wins, and the odds are split between 4 or 5 but a bowl is unlikely. Was changing conferences a good move? Ask the Huskies at the end of this crazy year.
Nevada Wolf Pack
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #112 Off/Def: #125/#89
Returning: #106 Portal: #96 Pure Str: #120 Program Rank: #117
2026 Proj: 3-9 (4.5-7.5) Bowl: 36% Conf: MWC #8

Nevada returns a handful of starters total between Offense and Defense, and with a pinch of Portal help they almost manage to look as good as last year's 3-9 team. Dylan Labarbera, who led the team in tackles as a Defensive End, is back but the next 8 in line are gone.
```
 *Nevada  (3-9)   SOS #104
 1   # 96 Western Kentucky    42.5
 2    FCS Montana St          29.0
 3 @ #133 Middle Tennessee St 52.3
 4   # 84 Air Force           34.0
 5 @ #132 UTEP                51.6
 6 @ # 59 North Dakota St     17.9
 7   #121 San Jose St         55.7
 8 @ # 31 UCLA                 9.7
 9   # 79 New Mexico          34.2
10 @ #119 N Illinois          44.0
11   #106 Hawai`i             47.3
12 @ # 85 UNLV                27.1
```
Nevada's 3-9 projection inclues two games at 52% and one at 56%, so going winless is not off the table (though still unlikely). On the other hand, only a few games are out of reach—at UCLA, and at North Dakota State don't look good; at UNLV will be tough and even game 2 hosting FCS champion Montana State is probably a loss. There's enough opportunity, though, to improve on last year's record, and 4 or 5 wins is a good yardstick.
San Jose State Spartans
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #120 Off/Def: #101/#125
Returning: #126 Portal: #112 Pure Str: #137 Program Rank: #101
2026 Proj: 4-9 (5.0-8.0) Bowl: 32% Conf: MWC #9

The further we get down the list, the more meager the returning talent score is, and San Jose State is no exception with only the offensive line returning a few starters, and the Defense's top 9 tacklers gone. Portal help is minuscule. In Pure terms this leaves the Spartans one of the worst teams in the nation, but we modify by the Program strength and assume last year was just an off year—an off year that might be repeated, but without them sinking into disaster.
```
 *San Jose St  (4-9)   SOS #89
 1 @ #  7 Southern Cal         2.0
 2 @ #110 Eastern Michigan    40.3
 3    FCS Cal Poly SLO        69.6
 4   # 70 Fresno St           28.8
 5 @ #106 Hawai`i             37.1
 6   #112 Wyoming             52.3
 7 @ #132 UTEP                50.7
 8 @ #120 Nevada              44.3
 9   # 79 New Mexico          32.2
10   #119 N Illinois          53.8
11 @ # 84 Air Force           25.3
12   # 85 UNLV                34.7
13   # 59 North Dakota St     24.7
```
SJSU is the only team that plays 13 scheduled games this season, and it should mean they get an extra chance to exceed last year's 3 wins. However, they open at USC so they really have 12 games in which to get those wins. The Mountain West is weak after losing five of its best teams so almost all conference games are in play. We have the Spartans winning 50/50 games over Wyoming, UTEP, and Northern Illinois, and obviously none of those is certain. The cumulative odds do call for 5 wins but a really bad year is a possibility given their "Pure" Strength ranking of #137.
Georgia State Panthers
2025 Results: (1-11) Str: #134 Off/Def: #124/#134
Returning: #64 Portal: #120 Pure Str: #119 Program Rank: #121
2026 Proj: 2-10 (5.0-7.0) Bowl: 42% Conf: SunE#7

Georgia State had a rough 2025 but things look better for 2026, mostly because the Panthers avoid Portal poachers on Offense more than other teams—maybe no one was scouting to poach a 1-11 team? Their QB (13:1 ratio) returns with most of the offensive line and some experienced receivers. The defense, one of the nation's worst last year, is rebuilt almost from scratch, and the Panthers get little Portal help of their own.
```
 *Georgia St  (2-10)  SOS #120
 1    FCS North Carolina A&T  85.6
 2 @ #117 Kennesaw St         44.0
 3 @ # 52 Central Florida     14.6
 4   #119 N Illinois          53.5
 5   # 87 Old Dominion        35.3
 6 @ # 75 James Madison       23.4
 7 @ #107 Arkansas St         37.8
 8   #109 Coastal Carolina    49.3
 9 @ #116 Appalachian St      43.1
10   #101 Georgia Southern    43.9
11 @ # 94 Marshall            29.8
12   #100 UL-Lafayette        44.5
```
We show only two games where the Panthers are favorites, both of them out of conference. But 4 conference losses—5 games total—are very competitive and the cumulative odds show a 5-7 record. Either way, the number of wins should go up this year.
Akron Zips
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #130 Off/Def: #128/#122
Returning: #28 Portal: #107 Pure Str: #104 Program Rank: #136
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.1-6.9) Bowl: 44% Conf: MAC #8

Akron is one of the nation's worst football programs and last year's effort was only slightly better than par despite the 5 wins. But the Zips managed to hold on to a lot of talent from the '25 team, especially on offense where 1,000 yard rusher Jordan Gant is back along with some top receivers and linemen.
```
 *Akron  (4-8)   SOS #112
 1 @ # 57 Wake Forest         15.8
 2    FCS Robert Morris       82.7
 3 @ # 46 Minnesota           13.5
 4   # 85 UNLV                34.2
 5 @ #111 Central Michigan    41.6
 6   #110 Eastern Michigan    49.9
 7 @ # 83 Miami OH            25.7
 8 @ #136 Kent St             52.1
 9   #102 Ohio U.             44.2
10   # 92 Western Michigan    36.9
11 @ #138 Massachusetts       62.1
12   #127 Buffalo             55.6
```
Can the Zips top last year's record? They'll need to beat Eastern Michigan at home, which is the narrowest of "losses" right now, and hold on to win the last two conference games. We see 4 or 5 wins but also show a decent 44% for bowl eligibility.
Rice Owls
2025 Results: (5-8) Str: #128 Off/Def: #136/#107
Returning: #114 Portal: #97 Pure Str: #129 Program Rank: #114
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.0-8.0) Bowl: 29% Conf: AAc #12

Like many teams in Rice's position, the returnees are few and far between and Portal help is minimal, thought the Owls do bring in one of Sacremento State's best DBs to supplement a defense that lost its top 7 tacklers.
```
 *Rice  (2-10)   SOS #78
 1    FCS Houston Christian   82.1
 2 @ #  2 Notre Dame           0.6
 3   # 92 Western Michigan    37.7
 4 @ # 70 Fresno St           20.9
 5   # 76 UTSA                32.0
 6 @ # 86 East Carolina       25.7
 7   #115 Tulsa               51.0
 8 @ # 97 Florida Atlantic    34.2
 9 @ # 82 North Texas         25.2
10   # 64 Tulane              27.0
11 @ #104 Temple              36.0
12   # 67 Army                27.0
```
Rice will have trouble matching last year's 5 wins, first because they played 13 games last year so that takes away one chance, and also because they play Notre Dame and that removes another chance. Even games vs. Fresno State, East Carolina, North Texas, Tulane, and Army don't show a lot of promise. The odds say 4-8 is likely but the game-by-game projection of 2-10 is hard to argue.
Sacramento State Hornets
2025 Results: (7-5) Str: #118 Off/Def: #96/#129
Returning: #105 Portal: #74 Pure Str: #114 Program Rank: #123
2026 Proj: 4-8 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 53% Conf: MAC #9

It's 2026 and somehow Sacramento State is in the Mid-American Conference while Northern Illinois has left for the Mountain West. Sac State's move to the FBS comes after a few middling years in the FCS following their great 12-1 season in 2022. They enter ranked as the #123 FBS program and would have ranked #118 in Strength last season. Their offense is pretty wiped out and the defense isn't much better off. They do use the Portal fairly well but it's going to be a rough transition and the travel is going to be nuts compared to what they're used to.
```
 *Sacramento St  (4-8)  SOS #134
 1 @ #110 Eastern Michigan    40.0
 2    FCS Miss. Valley St     93.7
 3 @ # 70 Fresno St           20.7
 4   # 59 North Dakota St     23.3
 5   #138 Massachusetts       70.7
 6 @ #114 Bowling Green       41.7
 7   #102 Ohio U.             44.0
 8 @ #134 Ball St             51.6
 9   #136 Kent St             62.2
10   # 89 Toledo              36.0
11 @ #111 Central Michigan    42.3
12 @ #106 Hawai`i             36.4
```
Not only do the Hornets travel to four MAC games—each one about 1,000 miles away—they also go to Hawaii at the end of the season. Most of their wins should come at home: Mississippi Valley, UMass, and Kent State. But other than travel the schedule is soft so there are some close games, enough to give the Hornets a 53% chance at a bowl bid. That doesn't factor in the actual travel distances which could make the road games less competitive. Should be an interesting season!
Florida International Panthers
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #109 Off/Def: #103/#118
Returning: #102 Portal: #92 Pure Str: #115 Program Rank: #124
2026 Proj: 6-6 (5.5-6.5) Bowl: 51% Conf: CUSA#7

FIU doesn't lose all its starters like some teams. And they do bring in a few good players via the Portal. But for the most part they follow the sad G6 script of losing their best talent and not replacing it effectively.
```
 *Florida Int'l  (6-6)  SOS #137
 1 @ # 74 South Florida       22.8
 2   #127 Buffalo             54.4
 3 @ # 97 Florida Atlantic    33.5
 4    FCS LIU                 76.7
 5   #118 New Mexico St       51.6
 6 @ # 95 Jacksonville St     32.2
 7   #133 Middle Tennessee St 60.3
 8 @ # 88 Liberty             26.1
 9   #128 Missouri St         55.9
10 @ #105 Delaware            36.1
11 @ #117 Kennesaw St         43.0
12   #135 Sam Houston St      62.0
```
Luckily FIU has the 2nd easiest schedule in the country, so half their games are on the plus side. It's very tight so no blowout wins (or losses) are expected and getting to back-to-back bowl games is about a 50/50 proposition, but those are better odds than FIU has had in almost a decade.
Buffalo Bulls
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #123 Off/Def: #126/#111
Returning: #96 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #125 Program Rank: #118
2026 Proj: 6-6 (5.6-6.4) Bowl: 42% Conf: MAC #10

The Bulls have to make due with the very few starters back on Offense, and a few more on Defense, as the players they bring in via the Portal don't move the needle at all. They end up about the same, down a few slots in Strength just from Brownian motion among other teams really. So many other lower-level teams are declining, too, that the Bulls almost hold their place.
```
 *Buffalo  (6-6)  SOS #90
 1    FCS Albany NY           70.0
 2 @ #126 Florida Int'l       45.6
 3 @ #  5 Penn State           1.9
 4    FCS Robert Morris       81.9
 5   # 92 Western Michigan    36.5
 6 @ # 89 Toledo              26.5
 7   #138 Massachusetts       70.7
 8   #114 Bowling Green       51.4
 9 @ # 83 Miami OH            24.7
10 @ #134 Ball St             51.5
11   #111 Central Michigan    50.3
12 @ #123 Akron               44.4
```
The Bulls get six wins game-by-game, but note that three of those are just barely over 50%. This means their outcome is based a lot on luck, too. The odds work out to a 51% chance at six wins but only a 27% chance at 7 wins, which they need to get to a bowl game since they play two FCS teams. Well, let's parse that further: they need 5 FBS wins and six or more wins total, which is not the same as needing seven wins (which is the usual shortcut assuming two FCS wins). Given that neither of their FCS wins is guaranteed, there are many ways they can lose one of those, get six wins total, and make a bowl game. Our simulation (which varies team Strength for each run) showed that happens 42% of the time for the Bulls so we let that be the verdict.
Missouri State Bears
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #107 Off/Def: #100/#115
Returning: #113 Portal: #115 Pure Str: #128 Program Rank: #116
2026 Proj: 4-8 (4.6-7.4) Bowl: 37% Conf: CUSA#8

Low-ranked team? Check. In a really low-ranked conference? Check. New head coach? Check. This is the easy formula for roster depletion. Any year prior to 2020 this team would be last in the nation for returning starters but in the Transfer Portal Era Missouri State isn't in the bottom 25. With little significant Portal help they drop over 20 spots.
```
 *Missouri St  (4-8)   SOS #76
 1 @ #  8 Texas A&M            2.1
 2    FCS Lindenwood          69.7
 3   # 94 Marshall            36.3
 4 @ # 27 SMU                  7.8
 5 @ # 96 Western Kentucky    31.8
 6   #117 Kennesaw St         51.8
 7 @ #105 Delaware            35.2
 8   #135 Sam Houston St      61.4
 9 @ #126 Florida Int'l       44.1
10   #118 New Mexico St       51.4
11 @ # 95 Jacksonville St     31.4
12   # 88 Liberty             33.7
```
Also not helping? Both Texas A&M and SMU on the non-conference schedule. Likely those were moves to insure the viability of the program going forward, but it diminishes their odds of reaching six wins to just 37%. Two of their listed four "wins" are very shaky, but when all is said and done 5-7 is just as likely as 4-8.
Charlotte 49ers
2025 Results: (1-11) Str: #135 Off/Def: #133/#123
Returning: #68 Portal: #83 Pure Str: #113 Program Rank: #129
2026 Proj: 1-11 (4.0-8.0) Bowl: 31% Conf: AAc #13

Charlotte was one of the worst teams last year and their relatively new program (circa 2015) ranks in the bottom 10. They're #68 in returning talent percentage, which shows how bad it's gotten for returning starters in the Portal era. The Defense isn't too bad off, and they get transfer help on offense. The 49ers program Strength diminishes their upside in our formula though, so not much progress is suggested.
```
 *Charlotte  (1-11)  SOS #92
 1    FCS The Citadel         71.7
 2 @ #  6 Mississippi          1.6
 3 @ #116 Appalachian St      40.5
 4   #100 UL-Lafayette        40.9
 5   # 63 Memphis             24.0
 6 @ # 82 North Texas         23.0
 7 @ #104 Temple              34.1
 8   # 64 Tulane              25.1
 9 @ #130 Alabama-Birmingham  45.3
10   # 86 East Carolina       32.2
11 @ #115 Tulsa               39.7
12   # 69 Navy                26.3
```
A repeat 1-11 season is possible, but 4 wins are a solid possibility and there is only a 0.5% chance of going winless. Every win after the opener will be an upset but those are common in teams ranked below #100 and Charlotte plays five of them. They didn't get any last year and the games weren't very close, but the games should be tighter this year which will put the 49ers in reach of a few extra W's.
Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #121 Off/Def: #93/#133
Returning: #132 Portal: #69 Pure Str: #135 Program Rank: #115
2026 Proj: 3-9 (4.0-8.0) Bowl: 29% Conf: AAc #14

The Blazers, like every cellar-dwelling conference team, lose most of their good players to the Portal, but unlike most they grab a little back on both Offense and Defense. Not enough to keep them from slipping from last year's already-low ranking though.
```
 *UAB  (3-9)   SOS #102
 1 @ # 32 Illinois             7.8
 2   #131 Louisiana-Monroe    56.4
 3 @ #100 UL-Lafayette        32.1
 4   # 69 Navy                25.6
 5    FCS Samford             67.4
 6 @ # 63 Memphis             17.3
 7   # 86 East Carolina       31.9
 8 @ # 74 South Florida       20.6
 9   #129 UNC-Charlotte       54.7
10 @ #104 Temple              33.7
11   # 76 UTSA                29.5
12 @ # 82 North Texas         22.8
```
UAB ends up last in the American and the only conference game they're expected to win is Charlotte with home field advantage. They also get ULM at home and Samford, that's 3 wins and one upset is expected by the odds. They've been 3-9 or 4-8 the last 3 years; it might happen again.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #136 Off/Def: #137/#128
Returning: #62 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #123 Program Rank: #134
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.5-7.5) Bowl: 36% Conf: SunW#6

ULM has a decent returning group on offense; trouble is, their offense was #137 of the current 138 teams. That will improve, but the #128 defense might not. Overall they get a slight lift from #136 to #131.
```
 *Louisiana-Monroe (2-10) SOS #124
 1 @ # 58 Mississippi St      13.1
 2 @ #130 Alabama-Birmingham  43.7
 3    FCS SE Louisiana        53.2
 4   # 97 Florida Atlantic    38.3
 5 @ # 99 South Alabama       28.5
 6   # 98 Louisiana Tech      37.8
 7 @ #103 Troy                31.2
 8   #137 Southern Miss       61.0
 9 @ #107 Arkansas St         33.1
10   #100 UL-Lafayette        39.1
11 @ #116 Appalachian St      38.5
12   # 94 Marshall            32.9
```
Sixth in the Sun Belt West, they host the #7 team (Southern Miss) so that looks like a win. That and Southeastern Louisiana (not an easy win) are their only 50%+ games. But everything is fairly close, so their overall odds call for 4 or 5 wins, which would be an improvement, but nothing too dramatic.
UTEP Miners
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #129 Off/Def: #122/#127
Returning: #99 Portal: #125 Pure Str: #130 Program Rank: #133
2026 Proj: 1-11 (3.9-8.1) Bowl: 27% Conf: MWC #10

The Miners' roster wasn't completely decimated—at least not on Defense, which remains reasonably intact for a team in last place in its conference. The Offense is hit hard and the Portal doesn't help very much. The Miners move from C-USA to the Mountain West but they're probably the bottom team.
```
 *UTEP  (1-11)   SOS #71
 1 @ # 12 Oklahoma             1.8
 2    FCS Texas Southern      79.7
 3 @ # 15 Michigan             2.8
 4   # 93 Oregon St           31.7
 5 @ # 79 New Mexico          20.2
 6   #120 Nevada              48.4
 7   #121 San Jose St         49.3
 8 @ # 59 North Dakota St     13.6
 9   #106 Hawai`i             40.9
10   #112 Wyoming             45.4
11 @ # 84 Air Force           20.2
12 @ #119 N Illinois          38.1
```
UTEP plays both Oklahoma and Michigan, and outside of their FCS game there aren't any clear wins on the entire schedule, though there are four home games in the middle of the season that are close, with two being just shy of 50%. It adds up to nearly four expected wins, and their odds of going 0-12 are just 0.4%.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
2025 Results: (3-9) Str: #131 Off/Def: #127/#126
Returning: #100 Portal: #123 Pure Str: #131 Program Rank: #130
2026 Proj: 1-11 (4.6-7.4) Bowl: 37% Conf: CUSA#9

2025 wasn't kind to MTSU on offense nor on defense, and both are hit hard by losses, with the offense hit much worse, enough that we don't see improvement. The question is whether they get enough upsets to improve their record.
```
 *MTSU  (1-11)  SOS #121
 1    FCS Murray St           73.7
 2 @ # 94 Marshall            23.2
 3   #120 Nevada              47.7
 4 @ # 95 Jacksonville St     27.7
 5 @ # 44 Kansas               9.8
 6   #105 Delaware            39.6
 7 @ #126 Florida Int'l       39.7
 8   #117 Kennesaw St         47.8
 9   # 96 Western Kentucky    36.7
10 @ # 88 Liberty             21.1
11 @ #135 Sam Houston St      47.1
12   #118 New Mexico St       47.3
```
Game by game the 2026 season looks like a step down to 1-11, but add up the odds and it could be just as much of an improvement to 5-7. Like UTEP, their only "win" is against the FCS team they scheduled. But they have four games that sit at 47%, so a couple of those should hit right? And another two at 39%. So it all comes down to the upsets, with a 37% chance they get enough for bowl eligibility.
Ball State Cardinals
2025 Results: (4-8) Str: #133 Off/Def: #131/#121
Returning: #97 Portal: #129 Pure Str: #132 Program Rank: #131
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.4-7.6) Bowl: 34% Conf: MAC #11

The offense is hit pretty hard by departures and the defense is hit worse. No significant Portal help is on the way either. This leaves Ball State in pretty much the same boat they were in last year, and near the bottom of the MAC.
```
 *Ball St  (2-10)   SOS #81 
 1 @ #  4 Ohio State           0.8
 2    FCS Stony Brook         65.4
 3 @ # 88 Liberty             21.6
 4 @ #136 Kent St             45.9
 5   # 89 Toledo              29.3
 6 @ # 49 Northwestern        10.8
 7 @ #114 Bowling Green       36.2
 8   #125 Sacramento St       48.4
 9 @ #138 Massachusetts       55.5
10   #127 Buffalo             48.5
11 @ #102 Ohio U.             29.1
12   #111 Central Michigan    44.6
```
Kicking the season off at Ohio State doesn't help matters, Stony Brook should bring them an early win. After that there are a number of tossup games but only UMass looks like a win, and that's on the road so who knows. The odds of course add up to bluer skies, 4 or even 5 wins and a 1 in 3 shot at a bowl game.
Sam Houston State Bearkats
2025 Results: (2-10) Str: #137 Off/Def: #132/#137
Returning: #103 Portal: #86 Pure Str: #134 Program Rank: #132
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.4-7.6) Bowl: 35% Conf: CUSA#10

Sam Houston loses most of its starting squad on both sides of the ball, degrading both their offense and defense, though they do add a starter from Kennesaw State on the line. They still look like the weakest team in Conference USA.
```
 *Sam Houston St  (2-10)  SOS #94
 1 @ #103 Troy                28.9
 2   #115 Tulsa               43.7
 3    FCS Nicholls St         61.5
 4 @ #  9 Texas Tech           1.2
 5 @ # 88 Liberty             20.9
 6   # 96 Western Kentucky    35.3
 7   #118 New Mexico St       45.0
 8 @ #128 Missouri St         38.6
 9 @ # 95 Jacksonville St     26.1
10   #117 Kennesaw St         45.4
11   #133 Middle Tennessee St 52.9
12 @ #126 Florida Int'l       38.0
```
The Bearkats will be favored in two games and both of those look close, especially the MTSU game. But add everything up and you get 4 or even 5 wins, a big improvement from 2-10. Some reasonable possibilities are Tulsa, New Mexico State, and Kennesaw State.
Kent State Golden Flashes
2025 Results: (5-7) Str: #132 Off/Def: #114/#136
Returning: #48 Portal: #99 Pure Str: #111 Program Rank: #137
2026 Proj: 2-10 (3.8-8.2) Bowl: 27% Conf: MAC #12

The Flashes do a surprisingly good job retaining talent on offense and dip into the Portal a bit on defense. That should add up to an improved team but their poor Program ranking won't let us believe it. The schedule doesn't help either.
```
 *Kent St  (2-10)   SOS #75
 1 @ # 24 South Carolina       5.1
 2    FCS Wofford             63.1
 3 @ #  4 Ohio State           0.7
 4   #134 Ball St             54.1
 5   #102 Ohio U.             37.0
 6 @ # 92 Western Michigan    22.4
 7 @ # 74 South Florida       17.6
 8   #123 Akron               47.9
 9 @ #125 Sacramento St       37.8
10 @ #114 Bowling Green       34.6
11   # 83 Miami OH            27.4
12 @ #110 Eastern Michigan    32.9
```
For some reason, one of the worst programs in the country, just getting their footing at 5-7, ends up with South Carolina and Ohio State on the schedule. South Florida too. Even Wofford isn't an FCS pushover, but they and Ball State at home are the games the Flashes will be favored in. The odds suggest 4-8 is a reasonable bet but a bowl bid is highly unlikely.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
2025 Results: (7-6) Str: #102 Off/Def: #95/#113
Returning: #133 Portal: #108 Pure Str: #138 Program Rank: #126
2026 Proj: 1-11 (3.7-8.3) Bowl: 25% Conf: SunW#7

We've seen teams that have it bad, but Southern Miss takes the cake. Group of Six team with a new coach = disastrous returning production figures. The Eagles return 1 starter on the offensive line and that's it. The defense has 1 of its top 20 tackers back, and that's it. The Portal? They bring in a few backups from big programs, guys who got 3 tackles at Alabama or 7 at UCF. The end result is the 2nd worst team in the nation, only saved from being the worst by the fact that the program, while weak, has never quite been this bad. Even 2024's 1-11 team was 3rd from the bottom.
```
 *Southern Miss  (1-11)  SOS #114
 1    FCS Alcorn St           75.7
 2 @ # 40 Auburn               7.2
 3   #108 Connecticut         36.3
 4 @ # 64 Tulane              13.3
 5 @ #103 Troy                26.2
 6   #107 Arkansas St         36.3
 7   #100 UL-Lafayette        34.5
 8 @ #131 Louisiana-Monroe    39.0
 9   # 75 James Madison       21.7
10 @ # 98 Louisiana Tech      24.5
11   # 99 South Alabama       32.0
12 @ # 87 Old Dominion        18.9
```
Alcorn State gives the team a probable win but that's all the Eagles can hope for in what is the definition of a rebuilding year. Even UConn is favored to beat them in Hattiesburg, though that is one of their better prospects and the odds expect up to 3 upsets against a weak schedule. They even have a 25% chance to repeat with a bowl bid. There's also nearly a 1% chance of going 0-12.
Massachusetts Minutemen
2025 Results: (0-12) Str: #138 Off/Def: #138/#138
Returning: #75 Portal: #89 Pure Str: #136 Program Rank: #138
2026 Proj: 2-10 (4.1-7.9) Bowl: 22% Conf: MAC #13

You would think the Minutemen had nowhere to go but up, but staying at the bottom spot was an option too. Last year's team was 0-12 and had both the worst offense and worst defense, which is quite an accomplishment. It's largely why the team doesn't escape the cellar despite having a decent number of key players back, and even adding a Colorado State starter from the Portal. I will suggest that both the offense and the defense will climb out of the cellar; will the team follow?
```
 *Massachusetts  (2-10)  SOS #122
 1 @ # 48 Rutgers              6.6
 2    FCS Sacred Heart        66.2
 3    FCS Stonehill           72.8
 4 @ #125 Sacramento St       29.3
 5   #110 Eastern Michigan    33.6
 6   # 83 Miami OH            20.3
 7 @ #127 Buffalo             29.3
 8 @ #108 Connecticut         23.0
 9   #134 Ball St             44.5
10 @ # 89 Toledo              14.8
11   #123 Akron               37.9
12 @ #114 Bowling Green       27.5
```
With Sacred Heart and Stonehill on the schedule, UMass should have at least 2 wins next year. Of course it makes getting to a bowl game harder since they need to be 7-5 (or 6-6 with 5 FBS wins), but they will hopefully gain some confidence for the MAC season. Odds suggest 4-8 is within reason. Note that the Minutemen's 22% bowl game odds exceeds the mathematical odds of the individual game odds because every team's Strength is varied during simulation, and that impacts UMass disproportionally on the upside.

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