SportsRatings

 Originally published last week, obviously. Picked a few upsets but missed a few, too! Lots of great games this weekend. More questions answered, hopefully, including: Will FSU keep rolling or hit a bump on the road? FSU (3-0, -6.5) at Virginia (3-1) Florida State has done so well this year so far that it's hard to remember they were 2-10 last season. Everyone's expecting them to keep rolling toward a clash with undefeated Miami. Can Virginia derail the hype train? The Cavaliers have been good despite a close loss at NC State. FSU is favored by nearly a touchdown (-6.5) but in order to live up to our power ratings they need to win by almost 13 points. How FSU could lose : Looking ahead to the Miami game. And this being the Seminoles first road game. The latter especially I think is why the line is so muted. But the former makes it a "trap" game. Who would have though that FSU would have to deal with "trap" games this early in the season? That's wha...

Friends is killing it on the field, even if that sounds like it should be against their religion. NAIA's Friends University of Wichita, Kansas, has won its first four games 73-14, 62-7, 62-0, and 59-15. That gives them the #1 scoring offense in the country at any level. Naturally it doesn't give them the best offense, but it holds up remarkably well to schedule correction at #26. That's among all schools, even FBS. With just four games in the season so far, early power ratings have some notable flukes, but Friends showing up in the top 100 is impressive for an NAIA school. Right now they're #75 with the #26 offense and #175 defense. # Team rec Rating Offense [ rnk ] Defense [ rnk ] 74. Boston College 1-2 48.00 55.89 [ 43] 7.89 [121] 75. Friends 4-0 47.73 60.28 [ 26] 12.54 [175] 76. Tulane 3-1 47.53 48.55 [ 94] 1.01 [ 64] Really? Ahead of Tulane? Like I said:...

Outside the projected final Top 25, bowl eligibility is the main goal. But in the next dozen or so spots there are still a lot of teams with double digit Playoff Odds. Texas slipped just out of the Top 25 despite gaining a bit in odds after a 55-0 win Saturday over Sam Houston State. The Longhorns Playoff Odds are nearly 25% but have a 17% chance of missing a bowl game! That's what a tough schedule will do, as there are no 'gimmes' on their slate—even Mississippi State and Vanderbilt look tough. BYU is 3-0 with 21.4% Playoff Odds and gained 12% bowl odds after beating East Carolina 34-13. Nebraska is still in double digits after their first loss, and their bowl odds rose a bit despite the close loss to Michigan. TCU beat SMU but lost Playoff Odds while ticking up a bit in Bowl Odds. Old Dominion nearly has 10% Playoff Odds, up 5% on an idle week, after Tulane's blowout loss to Ole Miss plunged the Green Wave 15% down to 10%. The Monarchs are now the Sun Belt favor...

Well, last week I predicted which teams would top 50% if they won over the weekend. For the most part I was right: idle Penn State , Alabama , Georgia , and Ohio State didn't make it to 50%. Miami beat Florida and popped a strong 13.6% up to 63%. Mississippi beat Tulane and jumped to 56%. Oklahoma beat Auburn, and—as I said was a necessary condition, Michigan topped Nebraska—the Sooners are at 52% now. Oregon , already near 75%, beat Oregon State and easily remained above 50%. Those were some of the more obvious outcomes to predict. I did address Indiana's game with Illinois, and Texas Tech's game at Utah. For Indiana , I felt Illinois could reach 50% with a solid win, but Indiana " on the other hand is at just 29.0% and would need a monster blowout win to have a chance to top 50%. " Well, the Hoosiers got that blowout and more, jumping from 29% to 68% and all the way to the projected #2 finish. Their 63-10 beatdown of AP #9 Illinois has little precedent, ...

Three weeks in, and only one team is over 50% odds for the Playoff: Oregon at around 75%. There are 10 teams above 40%; which ones will go over the top this weekend? It's kinda cool and makes sense that so few teams are actually "favored" to make the Playoff. ESPN's FPI has a whopping 7 teams at 50%. I think that's placing too much faith in pre-season and early season results. It's so early in the season and there is a lot of parity in the top conferences. No one really knows who the best teams in the Big Ten and SEC are, for example. The pecking orders haven't been established. But several teams are ready to take the step from "favored for the Playoff because they project into the final top ten" to "favored for the Playoff by the odds." Here's the current top 11: these are all the teams over 40%. Curr Projected Rank Team Conf Rec Chalk Cume Playoff This weekend 1....

Here we look outside the Playoff picture to see who is where in the bowl game race. Just below the Top 25 there are still a number of teams with Playoff hopes, i.e., those in double digits and those who are leading their conference and hoping for the Group of Five berth. Vanderbilt doesn't have a lot of hope of winning the SEC but their Playoff Odds soared to 20% after they crushed South Carolina 31-6. Their Bowl odds jumped to 90%, too. Toledo , on the other hand, rests their Playoff hopes on solely on winning the MAC and slipping into the auto-bid picture. Their Playoff hopes are around 10%, their bowl odds over 99%. Two more teams here are in the same boat: North Texas and Memphis from the American. The Mean Green demolished Washington State 59-10 and moved into "3rd place" in the American race, with the Tigers 4th.  Curr Projected Simulation Odds LW Rank Team Conf Rec Chalk Cume Playoff chg ...

Just a week after the Big Ten ruled the roost a 5-2 advantage over the SEC in Playoff spots, the SEC reverses them and now has a 5-3 lead of their own. Georgia , Alabama , and Oklahoma joined the club while Illinois and USC slipped out. And of course, Notre Dame . A Big Ten team still rules at the top: Oregon's 34-14 win at Northwestern was enough to hold the top spot by a wide margin. The Ducks have almost a 3 in 4 chance to make the Playoff, according to our crystal ball. They also have a whopping 18.4% chance to win the national title, and they're the only team in double digits. In two weeks they face Penn State , who keeps slipping down the rankings but still sits at #10 after beating Villanova 52-6. The Nittany Lions are one of 10 teams between 40% and 50%. That includes #3 Ohio State , who stayed about level after making the final score respectable against Ohio (37-9) after a rough start.  That's it for Big Ten teams this week. Illinois beat Western Michigan 38...

8 Questions we hope to have answers for (or at least, more information) after week 3:   1) Tennessee or Georgia , who will start in the driver's seat in the SEC? This is a big one. Right now, in our Playoff projection, both teams are just on the outside looking in. But that's a by-product of the uncertaintly that exists in a conference like the SEC. There are so many tough teams that it's hard to consistently appear Playoff-worthy, so at this stage of the season they all look like near-Playoff teams. A big win—like this game will yield—should put either one over the hump and into next week's Playoff projection. A blowout by either team would be very instructive and point to a possible national champ, with the loser probably eliminated. But a close game just gives the lucky winner a big step up. Georgia is a 3 1/2 point favorite but Tennessee has the edge in our book due to being the host, and that's the only reason. 2) How good is South Florida ? Better than ...

Outside the top 25 teams in the projected Committee rankings, we tend to worry more about bowl eligibility than Playoff chances. These are the most interesting outcomes based on week 2 action. Obviously Michigan's stock fell a lot in the Playoff picture (down 11.7%) but their bowl odds took a lesser hit (4.6%). They're still around 85% but their aren't many breathers on their schedule. It really depends on how good they are—a true top 25 team? Or a middling Big Ten team? And we don't really know yet. Texas A&M is in the same situation in the SEC, only worse: they have even fewer breathers so they are below 75% for bowl odds. When Utah State and UTSA score 24 and 22 on you, you have to wonder how much SEC teams will put up. They play Notre Dame next so we'll see if they've been sandbagging on defense. Navy's odds didn't go up after beating UAB, and it's interesting when a win doesn't increase bowl odds. Either a closer game than expected, o...

Week 2 had few big games but there were some big blowouts, and if you didn't win big, you slip down the projected rankings. Winning the biggest was Oregon . Sure, it's easy to blow out an FCS team, or a weaker Group of Five member, but the Ducks blew out Oklahoma State. Not the best "Power 4" team obviously, but 69-3? That's crazy. Oregon now ranks #1 in our Bayesian power rating and in our Simulated Final Playoff standings. Their odds are a gaudy 69.4%, far above anyone elses (no other team is above 50%!) and their odds to win it all at 16.3% are double any other team's. Last week they beat one of the best FCS teams, Montana State, 59-13. Northwestern is next in their Big Ten opener. The Big Ten was all over the projected field with five teams as USC and Illinois joined. Ohio State and Penn State both got shutouts though the Buckeyes (70-0 over Grambling) improved their Playoff odds to nearly 50%, while Penn State's odd dipped despite beating Florida...