SportsRatings: College Football

Maryland falls in classic trap game vs. Temple

After two games, no one was looking much better than Maryland. They'd beat Howard 79-0, then proved their worth by beating AP#21 Syracuse 63-20. How good could they be, potentially? It looked like we'd have to wait until they faced Penn State to find out.

But the Terrapins faced Temple on Saturday. At first blush, I figured Maryland would win by 28 or so. At least four touchdowns, but just four touchdowns to be conservative. My power ratings, which aren't as swayed by two games, figured a 15 point advantage for the Terps. ESPN's FPI gave over a 10-point spread. Then I looked at the line for the first time:

Temple +6.5

What? Maryland is only favored by 6 1/2 points? What a steal! That's the gimme of the century, right? At least, that's what my brain said for about 3 seconds, before the rest of my pattern recognition kicked in.

That smells like a trap, it said. It looks like the line has been purposefully set low to ensnare casual bettors, to get all the action on the Maryland side...when the smart money knows Temple is going to keep it close.

How could the above be true? Who could "know" the game is going to be close? Sure, people like Temple's defense, but it wasn't all that great last year. No real "football analysis" necessarily pointed toward a close game. Several "experts" declared that Maryland would cover easily, so there wasn't general agreement that something was up.

But certain patterns over the years have become clear, if not explicitly codified. It seems that every few years there is an explosive team that runs up amazing scores for 2 or 3 games...then hits an inexplicable "wall" against an unexpected team, and just can't get their offense going. Sometimes it's because a team can't deal with heavy quarterback pressure, sometimes their "quicker" offense is outmanned by sheer size of the opposing defense, and other times, it just happens. I thought, hmm, I could see it happening against Temple.

Not only that, but after two home games, Maryland was on the road for the first time this season. Sometimes everything works at home and then on the road, nothing works. Add in the fact that last season, Temple beat Maryland 35-14 in College Park, and you might figure the swing between then and now can't be too great.

Given this odd intuition, I quickly changed my tune and realized that Temple was the better pick. And especially the under, which was 66 or so. If Temple was going to keep the game close, then it wasn't going to be due to an offensive shootout. No, this would be a boring game where neither team could generate offense. I figured Maryland would still win, maybe 23-20, maybe in overtime.

As it turned out, the score was 7-2 Temple at the half. Maryland's offense didn't score for over 30 minutes! And Temple won outright, 17-14, with the Terrapin O scoring just 13 points, the defense adding 2 safeties.

There are some who believe that the mob controls betting, and by proxy, college football via the referees in certain games. These theorists would say that the action was directed toward Maryland and the game was controlled so that Temple would win; normally this happens by key holding calls.

Maryland was penalized 9 times for 88 yards, which is fairly high, but Temple drew 7 for 65 yards. I didn't see enough of the game to know whether any were crucial to keeping the score in check on Maryland's side. I don't believe this theory enough to take it seriously, even though at time it really looks bizarrely convincing...

In any case, there are some things that show a tight game can be accounted for using only stats. CBS Sportsline's computer had Maryland winning just 20-19, eerily close to my seat-of-the-pants pick. Given that, it's not hard to see why some complex system used by the oddsmakers (since their money depends on it, they should have the best systems) pointed to a low spread. They might have even bumped it up a bit to keep the action more even, rather than bumping it down to make the action lopsided.

In my opinion, this oddball game was just "one of those things" that happens, and I've seen it happen over and over again. 

What's next for Maryland? Well, if another one of "those things" happens, then next week won't be kind to Maryland. Oftentimes when a team thinks they're doing very well, and then they are "exposed" as not being the next great thing, team morale collapses and there is major hangover to the next week. Maryland was already getting testy and fighting with Temple players as reality set in that they weren't going to steamroll the Owls.

So watch out next week vs. Penn State. I'm thinking that the Nittany Lions are going to blow out the Terps. They'll watch game film from Temple and do whatever Temple's defense was doing. And they have a better offense than Temple. 

The saving grace for Maryland might be playing on their home turf. It might turn out that Maryland is a great team at home and a relatively lousy one on the road. But either way, the Penn State game is the real pivot point for Maryland's season. A win could mean they can pick up where they left off and forget the Temple game. A blowout loss and the whole thing could fall apart, much like things did last year after they beat Texas in the opener and struggled thereafter, beating Bowling Green in game two and then...falling to Temple in game 3. They alternated big wins and big losses before losing their last four games (almost beating Ohio State though!) and finishing 5-7.

Maryland has again shown that they can be very good, and also not-so-good. Can they find any consistency, or will they continue to be the most up-and-down team in the country? Next weekend will say a lot.

150 Years of College Football: Top 15 all-time (best team from each decade)

ESPN recently featured its poll of the top 150 teams of all time, honoring the 150th anniversary of college football's first game in 1869.

(Fun fact: 2019 is the 150th year of college football, as well as the 150th anniversary. Normally the 150th anniversary means you're on year 151. But since there were no games in 1871, 2019 is year 150).

ESPN's list isn't bad, but suffers from recency bias. They polled 150 (of course) players, coaches, writers, etc. to form their list. Clearly these people are experts in college football over the last 50 years. Some may go back a little farther, maybe 75 years, but that's half of the history of college football that isn't going to be in their memories.

As a result, of course there are far more teams from recent decades at the top of the list. Their top ten features five teams from 2000-2018, one from the 1990s, three from the 1970s, and one from the 1950s.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing; it's obvious that players today are better than those from the pre-WW2 era. Many earlier teams are included farther down in ESPN's list, but in all, there are 82 teams from the last 50 years and just 10 from the first 50 years. If you're trying to survey all of college football's history, there should be more of an effort to include earlier eras. 

That's what we've done. In order to sample the entirety of the college football experience, we've made a list of the best teams, but allow only one team per decade. This ensures no eras will be forgotten, and also conveniently limits the amount of writing we have to do but limiting the list to 15 :)

We've used our power rating, combining Strength (points-based) and Success (win-based) to find the top team from each decade, then ranked those #1 to #15. Here are our results.

1. 1945 Army (9-0-0)  Rating: 93.41  ESPN rank: #58. ESPN top team from 1940s: 1949 Oklahoma (#37)
   This all-time classic Army squad ranked a clear #1 (by nearly 20 points) over #2 Alabama in Strength, and edged the 10-0-0 Tide in Success as well. They had both our #1 ranked Offense and Defense as well. It might be easiest to convey how good this team is by looking at other teams from the same year. 6-2 Penn shut out four of their first six opponents, but lost to Navy 14-7; then they hosted Army and lost 61-0. That Navy team was 7-0-1 with a tie vs. Notre Dame when they played Army and lost 32-13. The Notre Dame team that tied Navy? They lost to Army 48-0. Army's full season is well-documented on this page which also includes much info about the squad.
   
   ESPN's poll really dropped the ball by ranking this team #58. For at least a quarter century this team was considered the clear all-time best, and it still shows up as the best team of all time in many books and websites. You can argue that a 1945 team couldn't compete with today's teams, but if that's the case then ESPN shouldn't have teams from the 1950s (or even 1970s?) in their top ten. And the 1949 Oklahoma team was arguably only the 2nd best team of that year, let alone best of the decade.
    
2. 1971 Nebraska (13-0-0) Rating: 87.27  ESPN rank: #1. ESPN top team from 1970s: 1971 Nebraska (#1)
   ESPN redeems themselves somewhat by ranking this Cornhuskers squad at #1. In terms of dominance and strength of schedule, there's hardly a better example. Nebraska was 10-0, outscoring opponents by an average of 39-6 when they met Big Eight foe Oklahoma, 9-0 and winning 45-16. In an all-time classic, Nebraska beat Oklahoma—in Norman—35-31. This set up a meeting with 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl which was almost like a 4-team playoff long before the playoff era, as 11-0 Alabama had defeated 10-1 Auburn.
   
   The Cornhuskers beat the Tide in dominant fashion, 38-6, and Oklahoma 'completed the square' by beating Auburn 40-22. Thus Nebraska had wins over two 1-loss teams, a rarity before the playoff era, and their win over Colorado gave them wins over the final AP #2, #3, and #4 teams. Naturally they were unanimously #1. The team finished with our #1 defense and #2 offense (Oklahoma was #1 on offense). 
    
3. 1889 Princeton (10-0-0)  Rating: 86.02  ESPN rank: Not ranked  ESPN top team from 1880s: 1888 Yale (#94)
   The football scene at this time was dominated by Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Princeton's schedule in 1889 is pretty non-descript apart from their games with these 2 teams, though they did hand Lehigh 2 of their 3 losses. Harvard was odd man out in the national title race, losing to both Yale and Princeton, by scores of 6-0 and 41-15. Which brings us to Yale, who was 16-0 upon meeting 9-0 Princeton.
   
   Yale had an incredible thirteen shutouts under their belt. They beat 7-2 Cornell twice—both of Cornell's losses—by a total of 126-6. Still, our power rating would have predicted a 14-point Princeton win. Princeton won 10-0, which I'm sure still beat the spread vs. a team with 13 shutouts. Princeton had our top-rated offense and defense, and according to Wikipedia their captain was Edgar Allan Poe, 2nd cousin of the author, and that's gotta be worth a rating on ESPN's top 150 alone! It's hard to argue too much with the 1888 Yale team, though, as they didn't give up a single point all year. Still, our power rating rates 1889 Princeton as the tougher team and having the harder schedule.
    
4. 2018 Clemson (15-0)  Rating: 82.09  ESPN rank: #5  ESPN top team from 2010s: 2018 Clemson (#5)
   Another team on which we can agree! There are two things which should put this team high on anyone's list. First, all through the 2018 season, Alabama was looking like an all-time top-ten team, maybe the best ever. When Clemson throttled the Tide 44-16, didn't that make the Tigers an all-time great? Second, they won 15 games in the modern era including two dominant wins over 1-loss teams (Alabama and Notre Dame, whom they beat 30-3), both historic accomplishments. 
   
   It's true that the playoff era is going to give teams a higher rating in almost any system, from humans or computers. More wins, especially wins over playoff teams, juice a team's résumé. Particularly in ELO systems (which our Success rating is not), two late-season, huge wins count for a lot. But in this case it's very deserved. Clemson's season prior to the playoff was impressive but not amazing despite their 13-0 finish, and even their two big wins at the end didn't put them #1 in our FBS-only Strength model, though they had the #1 defense. They were a clear #1 in Success, and there was no doubt in the voters minds, of course, as they finished a unanimous #1.
    
5. 1890 Harvard (11-0-0)  Rating: 80.04  ESPN rank: not rated. ESPN top team from 1890s: 1892 Yale (#105)
   It's hard to explain how good these teams are with little film, and no living first-hand witness to their greatness. But we can try to explain why our system rates them so highly. And it's easy to see by looking at their dominant scores. Harvard finished 11-0, with 9 shutouts, and a national-title-winning 12-6 win over 13-1 Yale. Basically you had 1890s version of an undefeated Clemson vs. Alabama, and Harvard was Clemson in this scenario. As for what makes them the best of the 1890s decade, look at their dominance in outscoring their opponents 555-12. How do they compare to ESPN's choice, 1892 Yale? Again it's hard to argue with a team that doesn't allow a score (Yale had 13 shutout wins), but our Strength power rating likes 1890 Harvard a lot more. Six of one, half a dozen of the other—it's hard to compare these late 19th century Ivy League teams, but we find our power ratings' pronouncements interesting nonetheless.
    
6. 1905 Chicago (11-0-0)  Rating: 77.36  ESPN rank: #148. ESPN top team from 1900s decade: 1901 Michigan (#92)
   It's nice to see this team slip into ESPN's list, albeit just barely. The early 1900s era was one in which it was very hard to compare teams as they didn't necessarily play outside their region much, leading to a big debate as to whether the midwest teams (particularly Michigan) could beat the dominant Ivy League teams. Princeton didn't lose to a "midwest" (non-eastern) team until West Virginia in 1919; Harvard in 1921 to Kentucky's Centre College; and Yale fell to Iowa in 1922. Before that, the midwest and Ivy were mostly separate football worlds, and the national champ was declared by sportswriters based on their best guess, with Michigan being the midwest's premiere team. In 1905, Michigan was 12-0 and hadn't ceded a single point when they met 10-0 Chicago, who also hadn't given up a single point all year. If you predicted a defensive battle then you would be correct as Chicago won 2-0, the result of a "safety touchdown" which was worth 2 points then as it is now (without the "touchdown" aspect in the name). Just out of curiosity, we ran this game through our power rating, prior to the date, and it predicted a 17-7 Chicago win. Not sure where it was expecting to find all that offense!
    
7. 1995 Nebraska (12-0-0)  Rating: 74.76  ESPN rank: #4  ESPN top team from 1990s: 1995 Nebraska (#4) 
   We pretty much agree with the very top teams in ESPN's list, from a modern standpoint. The best team of the 90s was clearly this Nebraska squad, which dominated all its opponents including beating 12-0 Florida 62-24 in the national championship game. They were only #2 in defense but a clear #1 on offense, and rated 12 points better than the #2 team in Strength. In terms of Success, or wins over other good teams, they also beat 10-2 Colorado, 10-2 Kansas, and 10-2 Kansas State (who beat each other round-robin for their other loss), giving the Huskers four wins over the final AP top 25 (#2, #5, #7, and #9).
    
8. 1920 California (9-0-0)  Rating: 72.59  ESPN rank: #139  ESPN top team from 1920s: 1924 Notre Dame (#107)
   ESPN says it pretty well: "The greatest of the Bears' 'Wonder Teams' of the post-World War I era shut out seven opponents, averaged 56 points, gave up only 14 points all season, and blanked Ohio State 28-0 in the Rose Bowl."  Remarkably, despite all those shutouts Cal's defense only ranks #13 in our power rating, since there were so many other teams shutting all their foes out, too. But their offense ranked #1, and they were far and away #1 in Strength. As far as strength of schedule goes, their first six games were non-descript, though beating St. Mary's 127-0 when Stanford only managed a 41-0 win helped their Strength, as did beating Nevada 79-7 when Nevada was 2-0 otherwise. But what made their season was the win over Ohio State, as the Buckeyes had won every other game and given up no more than 7 points previously.  
    
9. 1917 Georgia Tech (9-0-0)  Rating: 71.67  ESPN rank: not rated  ESPN top team from 1910s: 1919 Notre Dame
   Georgia Tech didn't even place first in Success in 1917—that went to 10-0 Pitt—but they were a close 2nd and their Strength was far and away #1, thanks to an offense that averaged 54 1/2 points per game. This wasn't even the team that scored a record 222 against Cumberland—that was the previous year's squad. The Yellow Jackets (this season pre-dates the Ramblin' 'Reck nickname even) were declared national champs by the powers that be at the time, and they were coached by John Heisman at the time. ESPN's pick of 1919 Notre Dame as best team of the decade is weak; their schedule included only one winning team that played a full schedule that year, and is best remembered for Knute Rockne being on the team.
    
10. 1988 Notre Dame (12-0-0)  Rating: 69.85  ESPN rank: #18  ESPN top team from 1980s: 1987 Miami (#11) 
    Now here's a real Notre Dame team. The Fighting Irish weren't expected to be great that year, but won their way through a tough-as-nails schedule to become national champs. They weren't the best team—both Miami and Florida State were better teams that year—but they played the best when it counted. And it particularly counted when they beat Miami 31-30 in South Bend, the game that decided both the national title and the honor of placement in this top ten. Notre Dame barely survived a trip to Michigan, 19-17, in game one, and had to travel to USC late in the season, winning 27-10, before earning a berth in the national championship game against West Virginia. Winning 34-21, that gave the Irish wins over the #2, #4, #5, and #7 teams in the final AP poll. Miami beat the #3, #4, and #10 teams and were within a 2-point conversion of beating Notre Dame; had they converted, Miami would be on this list at #7. Was the 1987 Miami team more deserving of "team of the 80s" than 1988 Notre Dame? Maybe, as the Hurricanes beat 11-1 Florida State and 11-1 Oklahoma that year. But paradoxically, the Canes couldn't get a win over themselves, and it was Notre Dame's win over Miami in 1988 that gave them uber-points in our Success rating.
     
11. 2004 USC (13-0)  Rating: 68.65   ESPN rank: #2  ESPN top team from 2000s decade: 2004 USC
    ESPN puts them a bit higher but we agree this was the team of the decade of the 2000s. The Trojans dominated a fairly non-descript schedule, surviving a scare vs. 10-2 Cal in October, and matching up with 12-0 Oklahoma who was #2 at the time. They blasted the Sooners 55-19, making the Trojans the clear #1—though undefeated Auburn picked up a few first-place votes, too. Our Strength power rating puts Auburn at #7, though in Success they finish a close #2 to USC. Few people recall that Utah also finished undefeated, and we rate them #4 in Strength (#4 in Success). 2004 would have been a great year for a 4-team playoff, but alas it was not to be. We think the correct choice got made despite the limitations.
     
12. 1931 USC (10-1-0)  Rating: 68.60  ESPN rank: not rated  ESPN top team from 1930s: 1939 Texas A&M (#81) 
    Here's a team we don't blame ESPN for not recognizing, as 1-loss teams are no doubt going to get lost in the shuffle. But our power rating has a soft spot for the Trojans of 1931. The reason? After suffering that one loss in their opener (13-7 to 8-2 St. Mary's) the Trojans rattled off 10 straight wins, culminating in a Rose Bowl win over 11-0 Tulane, the only other team that could really stake a claim to being the best in the nation. In all, 9 of the 10 teams they beat finished with winning records, including 8-2 Georgia (a 60-0 win), 6-2-1 Notre Dame, and 8-2 California. Interestingly, ESPN's '30s pick, 1939 Texas A&M, also beat Tulane to win their national title, but just 14-13. The Aggies played a weaker schedule, and were underwhelming offensively. But they were undefeated, can't take that away from them.
     
13. 1952 Michigan State (9-0-0)  Rating: 57.41  ESPN rank: #115  ESPN top team from 1950s: 1956 Oklahoma (#9) 
    Here, ESPN makes the more acceptable pick for the 1950s. We have Michigan State from 1952, even though the Spartans finished #1 neither in Strength or Success that year. They were #2 in both, and edged out Georgia Tech and Oklahoma for our overall #1 rating. The Sooners finished 8-1-1 that year, meaning they weren't going to be national champs, while Georgia Tech was 12-0-0 but only finished #5 in Strength. The Spartans finished #1 in the AP and coaches poll. The real comparison should be with the great Bud Wilkinson teams of the 1950s at Oklahoma. In our power ratings, the 1956 team gets a lot of credit for being the best team, far and away #1 in Strength that year. But they had a very easy schedule, finishing just #8 in Success despite their 10-0 record. The problem is that they didn't go to a bowl game, having won the Orange Bowl the previous year and the Big 8 not sending teams in consecutive years. That left Oklahoma with just one win over a winning team, which to a computer is not a very dominant season. Obviously humans can consider other factors, like how the Sooners hadn't lost a game in 3 years; but in isolation, to our power rating the 1956 Sooners are a dominant team that didn't get the chance to prove their greatness. 
     
14. 1966 Notre Dame (9-0-1)  Rating: 52.60  ESPN rank: #125  ESPN top team from 1960s: 1968 Ohio State (#13)
    The 1960s were a weak era in college football, and not many teams are recalled as all-time greats. That said, the 1966 season was a great one due to three undefeated teams: Alabama, Notre Dame, and Michigan State. Alabama finished 11-0 while Notre Dame and Michigan State fought to a 10-10 tie. Just how are you supposed to rank those teams? Well, according to our Strength power rating, Notre Dame is far and away the best team, Alabama is #2, and #4 Michigan State was lucky to come away with a tie on their home field. In terms of Success, Alabama's undefeated season narrowly trumps the Irish, but not by enough to put the Tide on top. Who's to say that MSU and Notre Dame aren't the two best teams, and Alabama lucky not to play either of them? It could be debated forever, but Notre Dame's wins over 9-2 Purdue, 8-2 Army, and 51-0 shellacking of USC tipped our system to the Irish. ESPN's pick of 1968 Ohio State isn't a bad one for the 1960s, as there aren't really any all-time great teams in the decade. Ranking them at #13 of all-time seems a bit excessive, though, as they beat up on three teams that were 1-9 or 0-10, beat just 4 teams with winning records, and were relatively weak on defense.
     
15. 1878 Princeton (6-0-0)  Rating: 10.73  ESPN rank: not ranked  ESPN top team from 1870s: none
    Finally, we come to the representative of college football's first decade, 1869-1879, and 11-year span with 10 seasons (sans 1871). There are 2 reasons why this team's rating is so low compared to the others. In terms of Success, there were fewer teams to compete against, and fewer games were played. Fewer wins, against teams with fewer wins, equals a lower Success rating, even for an undefeated team. In terms of Strength, winning margins were much lower in this era simply because a touchdown was worth only a single point. So scores of 5-0 were the norm rather than a curiosity. This meant that of 7 relevant teams in 1878, Princeton was #1 with a Strength of 2.37, and at 6-0-0 had a Success of 8.36, for an overall score of 10.73. So much for the ability to compare across eras, but we don't think it's a bad thing that the first decade, where football was more or less still rugby and played only in the Ivy League, is downgraded a bit. The only important game of this season was when Princeton and Yale, both 5-0, met and Princeton won 1-0. Backchecking our power rating, we expected a more exciting game, with Princeton winning 2-1. We got the spread right if not the over/under.

There you have it. Make of it what you will, and if you disagree...well, you can always make your own power rating, I guess :)

 

Week 2: Are Maryland and Wisconsin the best teams in the Big Ten? Or the nation?

The early season prognostication for the Big Ten put Michigan and Ohio State at the top of the heap. This is pretty typical of the last several years, showing how little things have changed in the Big Ten since the 1970s despite other teams occasionally rising to the top (and the league expanding from 10 to 14 teams). 

But early results present two challengers: Wisconsin and Maryland.

The Badgers are not a big surprise, but winning their first two games 110-0 is a surprise for a team that stereotypically does not put up a lot of points. And two shutouts in a row is a rarity for any team, against any competition.

Maryland is a big shock; the best expected of the Terps was a mid-league finish, at worst, the bottom. But after crushing hapless Howard 79-0, the Terrapins proved they're for real by routing highly-touted Syracuse 63-20. Where did all that offense come from?

Here's a rundown of the teams that played the best, in absolute terms, in week 2, according to our Bayesian power rating, followed by a Top Ten ranking formed only by this year's performances (no prior ratings consulted):

1. Oregon 77, Nevada 6 (rating: 89.2)
   The Ducks' 77-point explosion begs the question: how good is Auburn's defense for holding them to three touchdowns? Nevada, after all, beat Purdue the week before 34-31, so Oregon's defensive performance is pretty on-point, too. This win signals that Oregon might still be the best in the Pac-12, something that would be bad for the Pac-12's playoff chances and good for the SEC's odds of getting two teams in the "final four."
2. Ohio State 42, Cincinnati 0 (85.3)
   ESPN had Ohio State on "upset watch" due to Cincy's relatively high rating in the FPI, but the Buckeyes made a mockery of that by dominating the Bearcats start to finish in a shutout win. Last week they let Florida Atlantic score 21 points but the defense proved themselves this time.
3. Clemson 24, Texas A&M 10 (83.5)
   The week's best victory in résumé terms is our third-ranked game performance, as Clemson didn't give the Aggies a chance to think about the upset. If not for a late touchdown allowed they would have finished #2 on this list for a second consecutive week. 
4. Missouri 38, West Virginia 7 (81.6)
   Here's one that's probably overrated by last year's "priors". West Virginia finished #9 in last year's ratings and is still clearly overrated despite being downgraded for last week's scare vs. James Madison. Missouri's loss last week to Wyoming confirms it. But a 31-point win over the Mountaineers is still impressive, even if it is most likely out of place on this list.
5. Alabama 62, New Mexico State 10 (81.2)
   The Crimson Tide keep doing as expected, meaning they beat up both on decent teams, like Duke last week, and poor teams, like New Mexico State.
6. Maryland 63, Syracuse 20 (81.1)
   The Terps have their second entry in the top-ten performances list in two weeks. Last week we wondered what would happen once they faced a good team. The result? 63 more points put up and a 43-point win over a borderline top 25 team.
7. Oklahoma 70, South Dakota 14 (78.6)
   The Sooners' win over Houston didn't make the list last week because they allowed the Cougars 31 points. This time they held South Dakota to 14 and also hit the 70 mark, a solid performance against a good FCS team.
8. Wisconsin 61, Central Michigan 0 (77.8)
   The Badgers make the top ten list again. Last week's shutout was on the road, this one was at home, and neither opponent is very impressive. But winning two games 110-0 is a feat that should make everyone take notice.
9. Utah St 62, Stony Brook 7 (76.7)
   Stony Brook is a good FCS team and Utah State demolished them. Last week's loss to Wake Forest pretty much negates that chance that the Aggies will be a top 25 team this year (at least for several months) but it shows that maybe they've rebounded after the loss.
10. Central Florida 48, Florida Atlantic 14 (74.4)
    A few years ago, week one results suggested that UCF might be among the best teams in the country. After finishing 13-0 and beating Auburn, that early sentiment was proven correct. This year UCF has started strong yet again; their week one win over Florida A&M (62-0) just missed making the top ten, and this one just makes it. It points to the possibility of a third straight undefeated regular season, something thought impossible without McKenzie Milton at QB. They get their biggest test next week when they host Stanford.

And now, the composite ranking of the teams that have played the best so far (their two-game average), without "diluting" it with pre-season rankings:

1. Clemson (2-0, 86.2). Not surprisingly, the defending champs are #1
2. Alabama (2-0, 85.9). Even less surprisingly, last year's runner-up is right there with them, essentially tied for the top spot.
3. LSU (2-0, 78.8). A big gap to #3, but LSU's win over Texas and runaway win over Georgia Southern make them a threat to 'Bama.
4. Maryland (2-0, 77.5) The biggest surprise of the year so far, Maryland could be a real player in the Big Ten—and the nation.
5. Wisconsin (2-0, 77.5) Is it too soon to call for Badgers vs. Terps in conference championship?
6. Ohio State (2-0, 77.1) The Buckeyes aim to remind Maryland and Wisconsin who is in charge; they face them back-to-back in a few months!
7. Penn State (2-0, 77.1) The FOURTH Big Ten team in the top ten. And that's without pre-season favorite Michigan. A big year in store for B1G?
8. Georgia (2-0, 76.1) The third SEC team ranked. The Bulldogs hope to face the 'Bama/LSU winner in the SEC championship. 
9. Oregon (1-1, 74.9) They nearly beat Auburn, and killed New Mexico State (Auburn's tepid 24-6 win over Tulane kept the Tigers out of the top ten).
10. Oklahoma (2-0, 73.6) The Sooners are looking good...now they just have to be sure to beat Texas (they're 8-7 against the Longhorns since 2005!)

So there you have it. The race in the Big Ten (really, the Big Ten?!) looks the most interesting so far, while the "race" in the ACC is easily the most boring. The SEC is having a typical year where LSU challenges in the West and Georgia looks headed for the championship game. The Pac-12 is struggling again, and the Big Twelve's hopes as usual ride on Oklahoma.

So let's hear some praise for Maryland and Wisconsin. They might be the only teams preventing 2019 from becoming a carbon copy of the 2018 season!

Alabama and Clemson top week one performances

It's pretty much unanimous that Clemson and Alabama, or Alabama and Clemson, are the two best teams in college football this year, until proven otherwise. But which teams looked the most impressive in week one?

By answering that question, we can look for those teams most likely to challenge the Dual Dynasty that is the Tigers and Crimson Tide, who together have won all four of the last four national championships.

We look to our power ratings and the scores of last weekend's games for the answers. Though one game doesn't tell us everything, it should point us in the right direction.

And...from this analysis we conclude that the teams that played the best in week one are (drum roll...)

Alabama and Clemson. Here's the rundown of the best performances, and how much better than the "average" FBS team performance it was:

1. Alabama 42, Duke 3 (score: +39.5)
   The Crimson Tide started slow, only leading 14-3 at the half, but when all was said and done they had defeated a solid Duke team (10-3 last year) on a neutral field by 39 points. Which is 39 1/2 points better than most teams would have done. Suggesting, too, that Duke is an average FBS team this year.
2. Clemson 52, Georgia Tech 14 (+37.8)
   It might be harder to quantify this one, as it represents the Yellow Jackets' first post-option-era effort on offense. But on defense they couldn't stop the Tigers, who rang up a 35-0 lead en route to a 38 point win. Georgia Tech was a decent 7-6 team last year and probably would be comparable to Duke if they had continuity from last year; also, the Tigers were playing at home, so this win might be a tiny step down from Alabama's win, though it's well within the "margin of error." Either way, Alabama and Clemson are your top two teams, even when examining a single game so far.
3. LSU 55, Georgia Southern 3 (+32.7)
   The next team up is another SEC team, LSU, who dominated Georgia Southern from the start and led 42-3 at the half. The Eagles were 10-3 last year, though with a weak schedule; they weren't bad, but weren't much above average if at all. Still, LSU excelled on both offense and defense and may have emerged as Alabama's top SEC rival. If it's not the Tigers, maybe it's...
4. Georgia 30, Vanderbilt 6 (+30.5)
   The Georgia Bulldogs played a solid game on Saturday, dismantling Vanderbilt 30-6 on the road. While the Commodores aren't the cream of the SEC crop they definitely aren't a sub-par team. Georgia beat them 41-13 last year, but that was in Athens. Which makes this win similar to last year's, which makes this year's Bulldogs roughly equal to last year's model. Which was pretty good. As usual, they will have to get past Alabama (or maybe LSU) to make the playoff.
5. Penn State 79, Idaho 7 (+29.3)
   Here's the first win over an FCS team that makes the cut. Idaho was an FBS team just last year, however, and they are probably still comparable to the worst FBS team, so they're not a total joke like some of the games played last week. But the Nittany Lions made a joke of the game. They started slow, with two field goals, before running it up to 65-0 in the 4th quarter. The Vandals got on the board but PSU added two more TDs in the last 8 minutes. Is that fair? Who knows, but the end result was an impressive 72-point blowout. Will it translate in play against quality teams? We will find out, but Penn State probably added their name to Michigan and Ohio State among Big Ten front-runners.
6. Wisconsin 49, South Florida 0 (+26.2)
   Another Big Ten contender: Wisconsin. The Badgers shut out the hapless Bulls, who were 7-6 last year: A 7-0 start, followed by 6 losses. The Badger defense proved to be just as solid as their offense, which chugged along as expected. A very convincing road win.
7. Washington 47, Eastern Washington 14 (+24.3)
   The Huskies represented the Pac-12 well, beating in-state FCS power Eastern Washington by 34 when all was said and done. The most impressive part was the defensive performance, as the Eagles are known for their high-powered offenses. Of course, Washington was one of last year's very best defensive team; despite returning just 2 starters, the defense appears sound.
8. Maryland 79, Howard 0 (+22.9)
   Let's get this out of the way: Howard is not a great team. They were 4-6 last year in the FCS, ranking a reasonable #233 out of 791 teams in all of the college football world, but particularly poor on defense. The Terps exploited that to the max, running to a 56-0 lead at half. Their last touchdown was early in the 4th quarter, so it's not like they poured it on unnecessarily, and they held the Bison scoreless. That foreshadows better things ahead for Maryland, who were barely above-average last year in the Big Ten and finished 5-7. Then again, last year's opener (a win vs. Texas) didn't lead to greater things, so maybe don't get too excited yet.
9. Washington State 58, New Mexico State 7 (+19.9)
   The Cougars' offense remained prolific as ever in eviscerating the Aggies, while the defense showed it can at least clamp down on lesser offenses. The real test will come from other Pac-12 offenses, but this effort makes them among the very top candidates as the league looks for a playoff candidate.
10. Utah 30, BYU 12 (+19.5)
    Good news for the Pac-12: despite Oregon's loss, there might be at least three standout squads that could be playoff worthy. Utah's road win at BYU—where the defense helped the Utes pull ahead in the 2nd half—bodes well for their hopes for a conference title, or more, this year. 

The upshot? Despite the SEC's struggles by mid-to-lower rung teams last week (losses by Missouri, Tennessee, and South Carolina), three teams looked to be among the top four in the nation—which is by definition playoff-worthy, even though probably only one of Alabama, LSU, or Georgia will make it from the conference.

The Big Ten looked good, too, with three teams winning big, and two of them scoring 79 points. But stronger competition will determine whether Penn State, Wisconsin, and especially darkhorse Maryland can unseat Ohio State or Michigan as the conference favorite.

The Pac-12 suffered a setback with Oregon's loss to Auburn, so they may have to count on Washington, Washington State, or Utah to carry the hopeful playoff banner.

And then there's Clemson. Quite frankly, it doesn't look like there is any ACC team that can challenge them right now. Their toughest opponent appears to be Texas A&M, next week.

2015 Heisman Race - Week 1

We're going to combine our pre-season and Week 1 Heisman Watch into one special double-sized issue. Here goes.

Pre-season

Our pre-season Heisman list is composed of those players left over from last year's official Heisman Trophy vote, in order—with a twist.

1. Trevone Boykin, QB TCU
2. JT Barrett, QB Ohio St
3. Dak Prescott, QB Miss St.
4. Scooby Wright, LB Arizona
5. Braxton Miller, WR Ohio St

The 'twist' is that Braxton Miller, who was 9th in voting in 2013, is playing this year. But not at the position that put him on the list back then. Still, we're including him, as well as JT Barrett who was in competition for the Ohio State starting QB job (more on that later). Trevone Boykin, 4th in last year's vote, starts at the top of our list, with Dak Prescott 4th to start this year, and Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright getting an early jump as the token defensive player.

Week One:

The biggest thing that happened in week one was Cardale Jones winning the starting spot for Ohio State. Just due to that fact, he makes our list this week. Even more importantly he played almost the full game, with JT Barrett getting in just a few plays. This puts Barrett's candidacy in great jeopardy, but he doesn't fall from #2 this week because #3 Dak Prescott didn't have an incredible outing, and Barrett managed to score a touchdown on his only pass attempt, while his sole rushing attempt went for 40 yards. If nothing else, his averages are going to be amazing. Trevone Boykin's first game was rather tepid, but again, he stays in first place because 2nd-stringer Barrett isn't about to push him out.

1. Trevon Boykin, QB TCU (1-0) beat Minnesota 23-17
   26-42 61.9% 246yd 1TD 1int 18rsh 92yd 5.1av 0TD
2. JT Barrett, QB Ohio St (1-0) beat Virginia Tech 42-24
   1-1 100% 26yd 1TD 0int 1rsh 40yd 40.0av 0TD
3. Dak Prescott, QB Miss St. (1-0) beat Southern Miss 34-16
   22-38 57.9% 237yd 2TD 0int 8rsh 72yd 9.0av 1TD
4. [up 1] Braxton Miller, WR Ohio St (1-0) beat Virginia Tech 42-24
   3rec 79yd 1TD 5rsh 61yd 12.2av 1TD
5. [new] Cardale Jones, QB Ohio St (1-0) beat Virginia Tech 42-24
   10-19 52.6% 187yd 2TD 1int 13rsh 99yd 7.6av 1TD
6. [dn 2] Scooby Wright, LB Arizona (1-0) beat UTSA 42-32
   1 tackle (injured)

The next biggest thing that happened was Arizona's Scooby Wright going out with an injury early in the Wildcats' win over UTSA. He'll be out for a month, which basically means his long-shot candidacy is over. If he comes back healthy he could still build up enough stats to be the defensive representative in this year's vote. Braxton Miller moves up a spot after scoring 2 touchdowns in his new role, so now the three OSU once-and-future QBs are on the list. There could be four Buckeyes soon if Ezekiel Elliot makes the list in the upcoming weeks.