SportsRatings

After last week's mega-slate of incredible matchups this week is going to seem rather dull. Cue the upsets, hopefully! There are still six intra-Top25 (or top 30) matchups to choose from: #1 Georgia vs. #30 Missouri (they're #22 CFP) #4 Utah at #25 Arizona #6 Texas at #21 LSU #9 Indiana vs. #23 USC #15 Texas Tech at #26 Oklahoma State (#25 CFP) #13 Kentucky vs. #28 Florida With those rankings there should be clear favorites and in most cases there are: Georgia and Indiana are favored by more than a touchdown, while Utah and Kentucky are favored by about a field goal.  But look at Texas vs. LSU : the Tigers are 4 point favorites at home. Of course, they were favored over Alabama last week and look what happened. Can LSU win a big game? They're one of the best teams in the country outside of big games, where they fall short. Texas is about 50/50 in big games themselves. Also, Oklahoma State is favored over Texas Tech (again, both Vegas and SportsRatings). The Cowboys do...

Not much out of the ordinary from the Committee in its 2nd ranking—except maybe the entire Big Ten, which was ranked schizophrenically from the week before, like a completely different group of people were in charge.  Nothing else was so unexpected as to really affect our projected Final Top 25. Alabama was a little high at #3 for a 2-loss team and that put them up to #2 in our projection, which realistically would come down to an SEC title battle with #1 Georgia . Miami came in a little low (#7) for a team that was formerly #1 and lost to a very top team by inches, but that didn't change their #5 projection, one spot ahead of 7-2 Texas who match their high Committee ranking (#6). The Committee were also kind to Kentucky , #11 despite a 34-6 loss, while I think they got it right by not bumping BYU down for a close loss to new #2 Utah . But this meant 8-1 Texas Tech fell to #15 in our projection, as it's crowded in the bubble zone. No, the problem was the Big Ten. UCLA soa...

It's all about the Playoff these days but some teams still care about bowl eligibility. We do too! So here's a run-down of everything that happened last week for teams still up in the air: Oklahoma was looking really bad last week at 45% and the toughest schedules left. Beating Florida gave the Sooners a 36% boost. They still need a win from either Ole Miss, Texas A&M, or Missouri with the first two at home. Auburn is another 5-4 SEC team but they are at 99.7% because they beat Arkansas (barely, but so what?) and have Samford in two weeks. Mississippi State is 4-5 and down 22% after losing to Vanderbilt but has a 2 in 3 chance to win 2 of their last 3 games, since one is Tennessee Tech. Essentially it means they have a 2/3 chance of beating either Auburn or Ole Miss. UTSA already had 7 wins but they are included for dropping 10% in Playoff Odds following a 60-29 loss to Florida Atlantic. Fellow AAC member Tulsa was already out of the Playoff race but added 23%—up to 99...

The biggest weekend in college football has come and gone and instead of lower-ranked teams bum-rushing the top of the charts, those teams lost and left the lower Playoff zone weaker than it has been in weeks. But the with the top teams winning, the top is packed with near-certainty. Take #1 Georgia , 42-7 winners over Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are at 99.9%. 99.9%? How? Well, algorithm quirks aside, it's now clear that 3-loss teams will make the Playoff and Georgia has 1 loss. Even if they drop two more games (to Missouri and South Carolina, say) aren't they among the best 3-loss teams, with wins over Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and Oklahoma? Possibly? Probably? And  #2 Notre Dame  (99.6%). The Irish now have their "signature win" over Miami and would almost certainly get in at 10-2 now. Both Notre Dame and Georgia have very solid odds of finishing in the top 4.  Record Playoff Bye Champ LW Rnk Team ...

Big changes could be coming next week as this is perhaps the most important regular-season week of the year. A total of 7 games between teams in the Committee Top 25, six of them in the SportsRatings projected Final Top 25. I will post results below the rankings as they come in. The Big Games , previewed in order of importance: #1 Miami at #3 Notre Dame : Sadly this is only #1 vs. #11 in the Committee's eyes, but this game will have a huge effect. Notre Dame needs a win or they're in trouble for the Playoff; Miami won't end up the #1 seed without beating the Irish. In 1988 this game—#1 AP Miami vs. #4 AP Notre Dame—was the de facto national championship game. The Irish were favored by 3.5 until word came back that Malachi Toney won't play, which made the line jump to 7 points. Our power rating has Notre Dame by 6 and of course can't modify itself for injury reports, oh well. Maybe need to add some AI and a Reuters feed. #2 Georgia at #6 Mississippi : Another underso...

The first Committee rankings are out and there are really no surprises, and no changes to the projected Playoff field as a result. Notre Dame was #11, a bit lower than expected (#10). UCLA was pretty low (#8) for being undefeated; there isn't much on their resume but their SOR is #3 per ESPN and we rank them #3 in Success, so I still thought they'd be #4. Alabama at #5 was about 3 spots higher than I thought. How does it affect our projections from last Sunday? Not very much. Alabama is up a projected spot and +5.2%, Texas is up a few positions to #7. Indiana slips one despite a solid #4 rank from the Committee (but they gain Playoff Odds and Bye Odds too). LSU is up a spot—the entire SEC did well—while Ohio State slipped to #10 and dropped 3.1%. UCLA also shed 4.6%, remaining at #11. #12 Kentucky gained 2% and has higher odds than #11 UCLA, but the Bruins have the better average finish spot so they are designated Last Team In. All the Big Twelve teams were bled a bit, U...

Notre Dame's reign as projected #1 was always in jeopardy as long as a power conference team can go 13-0 (or even 12-1), and the Irish slip to #3 following a lackluster 35-13 win over Navy (14-13 at the half). Georgia's solid 28-9 win over Florida almost took the Bulldogs from #4 to #1 but it was #2 Miami , 38-35 survivor at North Carolina, who takes the top spot by a nose. The Canes can still finish 13-0 with a win over Notre Dame, but their 90.1% Playoff Odds reflect the chance that they could lose to the Irish and struggle against another opponent like they did UNC, and fall out of the Playoff picture. In short, I think ESPN's FPI is out of its mind with Miami at 98.5%.  Utah can also finish 13-0 and we favor them the rest of the way; they're up 15.5% at #4 after beating Cincy 49-25. Ohio State's loss to USC created room for upward movement but it's interesting which SEC teams moved: Mississippi beat Auburn 45-15 while Texas dominated Mississippi State ...