SportsRatings: College Basketball

Early Markov Chain Rankings (w/no priors) are Surprisingly Accurate

Early power ratings are notorious for looking weird and ridiculous, with teams that will never pan out popping up in the top five while obvious favorites linger around #50. This is a well-known phenomenon among makers of power ratings and almost everyone has adapted to it by merging early ratings with pre-season (or last season) scores, so that the first several weeks don't get made fun of. Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin both used to have very interesting early rankings that were unmarred by prior expectation, and they were a lot of fun. Now both are streamlined and sensible with data this is not garnered from this season's scores alone.

The NCAA's NET rankings got a huge blowback when they were first introduced just a couple weeks into the 2018-2019 season. Ohio State was 6-0 and #1 and the basketball world lost its collective shit, apparently not knowing how much prior years influence our own perspective on things, or how hard it is to start from no information and make sense of the college basketball world after a handful of games. Even people who should know better, like Jerry Palm and Nate Silver, went ballistic on the NET, calling for its destruction. Not that the NET is a great system by any means, but anyone who actually makes power ratings knows what they'll probably look like after 6 basketball games. We had Ohio State #1 too at the time, and we knew that in a few weeks things would start to right themselves.

Our rankings are all no-prior rankings: no pre-season expectations, nothing from last year. Hence, it takes a while before they "make sense." Here is our top ten (Combined rankings of Strength and Success) after a couple of weeks:

#   Team                     record   Rating
1.  Seton Hall                 3-0     44.49
2.  Arizona                    5-0     40.58
3.  Alabama                    4-0     37.28
4.  Purdue                     5-0     35.74
5.  Gonzaga                    4-0     34.07
6.  Kansas                     3-0     33.82
7.  USC                        3-0     33.75
8.  Washington St.             4-0     32.95
9.  Loyola Chicago             4-0     32.63
10. Duke                       5-0     32.30

Some odd choices, wouldn't you say? Seton Hall at #1, when they're just #21 in the AP? #17 Arizona at #2, #10 Alabama at #3, #24 USC at #7, Washington State at #8?

Purdue, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Duke are all in the AP top five so it isn't all weird, but #2 UCLA is missing as is #6 Baylor.

So it goes. Some hits and some misses at this early stage. It takes a while before the scores really tell the story that Gonzaga is a clear #1, not #5. Sometimes the early power ratings are on to something, but usually the small sample is in error.

Our Markov Chain rankings, however, seem to have things sorted out pretty well already:

  #  Team                    record   Rating
  1. Baylor                    4-0     51.95
  2. Gonzaga                   4-0     43.28
  3. Kansas                    2-0     37.44
  4. Purdue                    5-0     29.01
  5. Duke                      5-0     26.60
  6. Virginia Tech             5-0     24.81
  7. Villanova                 3-2     16.52
  8. Connecticut               4-0     15.59
  9. Arizona                   5-0     14.00
 10. Alabama                   4-0     12.06

#6 Baylor is #1, and the rest of the top 5 is in the AP top 5. #7 Villanova is at #7, and #10 Alabama is at #10.

Arizona is still ranked high, though not at #2, unranked Virginia Tech (#27 by Others Receiving Votes) shows up, and #22 UConn is at #8. But overall it looks pretty solid, especially for such an early ranking.

Still no UCLA though. Maybe the Bruins aren't as great as advertised? They're in the top 25 in both Combined and Markov so they aren't completely dismissed. But AP #17 Arizona ranks in both top tens.

Ultimately the rankings end up pretty close, but it's interesting that it takes the Markov Chain—at least this year—so little time to look "reasonable", to the point of having last year's NCAA tournament winner and runner-up at #1 and #2 while using nothing from last season to get there.

2021 NCAA Tournament National Championship Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Gonzaga vs. (1) Baylor

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 31-0
Conference: West Coast

vs.

Baylor Bears
Seed: 1
Record: 27-2
Conference: Big 12

Date: Monday, April 5
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

For most of the season this seemed like the inevitable clash to prove who is really #1.

     Gonzaga                            Baylor

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #2
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #2
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #2
   Defense:  #8                       Defense:  #27
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #2
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1              LRMC:              #3

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #7/#3           Tempo Total/Off:   #201/#129
Last 5 games:      #1              Last 5 games:      #2

Across the board, it's #1 Gonzaga vs. #2 Baylor. The LRMC doesn't update during the tournament so they still have Baylor #3. They had Illinois #2, so they projected a Gonzaga-Illinois final. What would the others have said? Strength would also have said Gonzaga-Illinois, and so would Pomeroy (he had Michigan #2 and Illinois #3 but the Illini would still have faced Gonzaga from the other side of the bracket). The BPI is the only one of the four that projected a Gonzaga-Baylor championship game pre-tourney.

Our Strength power rating had the two teams neck-and-neck until Baylor's post-Covid slump, which included their last 7 games before the tournament. We weren't sure whether they were still slumping or not, but it's pretty clear now that they are fully out of that slump. For tournament performance Gonzaga ranks #1 and Baylor #2, rating about 1.7 points better.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19, =(11)UCLA+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19, =(11)UCLA+OT
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.

The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.

Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.

The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65. The Bulldogs decimation of USC was a thing of beauty, probably the best game a team has played this tournament, considering that USC's beatdown of Kansas was clearly another high-water mark. Drew Timme had 23 points, mostly in the first half as the game was already put out of reach at 49-30. They finally had a test—a big one—against 11-seed UCLA, needing overtime to eke out a 93-90 win on Suggs' last second 3-pointer.

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Season overview: Baylor

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(1)Illinois+13, (8)Oklahoma+15, @(6)Texas Tech+8, (3)Kansas+8, @(4)Oklahoma St.+15, @(3)Texas+14, @(3)West Virginia+OT, (4)Oklahoma St.+11, (6)Texas Tech+15, =(16)Hartford+24, =(9)Wisconsin+13, =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11, =(2)Houston+19
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11, =(2)Houston+19
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Kansas-13, =(4)Oklahoma St.-9
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Baylor raced from the gate ranked #2 and looking like it as they beat future 1-seed Illinois in an otherwise cupcake pre-conference season. Those cupcakes, coupled with their three-week break leaves them with a résumé that would be worthy of a 3-seed any other year in terms of big wins. But this year it's pretty stellar; only 4 teams have more than their 9 tourney-team skins. Amazingly though as they reach the Sweet Sixteen they've beaten none of the rest of the field as the Big Twelve has fizzled out much like the Big Ten.

The Bears' Covid break occurred between game 17 (Texas) and game 18 (Iowa State). Though they beat the 2-win Cyclones it was close, 77-72 at home, by far their worst game of the season at that point. The loss at Kansas wasn't quite as bad but spoiled their perfect season. The Bears recovered over the next three games and looked to be recapturing their form—which would make sense, their practice was greatly limited during the off time—but then they had another relapse, barely beating 9-19 Kansas State 74-68 then falling to Oklahoma State 83-74. They look like they recovered against Hartford, but the jury is still out.

Baylor boasts three players in double figures: Jared Butler (17.1), MaCio Teague (16.2) and Davion Mitchell (14.1). They play a smaller, guard-heavy lineup, often having only one player over 6-5 on the court.  Against Hartford, Teague led the Bears with 22 points.  Against Wisconsin Teague and Mitchell at 16 but it was Matthew Mayer leading off the bench with 17. And in the win over Villanova another bench player, Adam Flagler, led with 16; the Bears won comfortably despite making only 3 of 19 threes as Villanova made just 3 of 17. Teague had 22 in the Bears's solid win over Arkansas, and Butler's 17 led as they rolled over Houston 78-59.

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Game Analysis: These are the best offensive teams in college basketball, but only Gonzaga ranks in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Bears are just outside the top 25. That should make a big difference—it should be THE difference—but if UCLA can nearly beat Gonzaga, then Baylor is perfectly capable of beating the Bulldogs. UCLA's defense ranks 46th and that didn't stop them from taking Gonzaga into overtime.

Does it matter that Gonzaga had a nail-biter while Baylor crushed Houston? Clearly UCLA was just about the hottest team in college basketball during the tournament—they beat a surging Michigan State, upset BYU, then beat 2-seed Alabama and 1-seed Michigan in very close contests. They were going to play any team close. If they'd been on the other side of the bracket it probably would have been the same with Baylor.

Both teams shoot very well and should be able to against the other team; neither team turns the ball over much on offense, but Baylor's D might push Gonzaga in that area as the Bears are #6 in steals. Both teams rebound well on offense (Baylor is #6), but Baylor's defensive rebounding is a suspect #280 so Gonzaga might end up with more 2nd shots. The most interesting comparison: Baylor is #1 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 41.2%, while Gonzaga is #1 in 2-point percentage at 63.9%.

Baylor is a pretty short team playing a guard-heavy lineup most of the time. They face one of the taller teams in Gonzaga, who has tall guard/forwards plus 6-10 Drew Timme inside. It's Gonzaga that wants to run on offense, however, so it will be interesting to see when and how Baylor uses their smaller lineup and when they put in 6-10 Flo Thamba for more height.

Gonzaga's Mark Few has been on a long march toward a championship for decades now. A few years ago he finally reached the title game and lost to North Carolina. This year's team has the feel of destiny to it; I don't think it will be hard for him to get the players more fired up than they've ever been.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   4.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:       59.9% 
Baylor:        40.1% 

Recent game performance (last 5): 

Gonzaga:       60.0%   
Baylor:        40.0%

Gonzaga by   1.7 

Vegas seems to be looking at the full year, including Baylor's slump games, when making this line as it nearly matches our full-year estimate. But our own odds for Gonzaga winning hardly change whether you use the full year's games or just the last 5—both say Gonzaga is 60% likely to win. What does change is the score estimate, dropping from 4.0 to 1.7.

What do Pomeroy and BPI say? Pomeroy give the Zags a 65% chance to win, taking them by 4. The BPI gives Gonzaga a 55% chance to win, with a 1.4 point expected spread.

Bottom line: We picked Gonzaga at the start, and had Baylor as a big question mark. If they hadn't recovered fully from Covid they would make a quick exit. If they had, they would run straight to the championship game and have a solid chance of winning it all. It turned out the latter happened, and here we are. We don't put too much stock in just the last game for each team, but the full tournament is a 5-game sample which gets about as close as you can to seeing where the teams are right now. Gonzaga has too many and varied weapons and is better on defense, and the players will be beyond hyped to get Mark Few his national title.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 85, Baylor 83

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Gonzaga vs. (11) UCLA

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 30-0
Conference: West Coast

vs.

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 22-9
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Saturday, April 3
Time: 8:34 pm Eastern
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

Pesky 11-seeds have overperformed greatly in the last 10 years, with two reaching the Final Four. But no 11-seed has won a Final Four game in the tournament in four tries. Can UCLA be the first?

     Gonzaga                            UCLA

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #23
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #15
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #13
   Defense:  #5                       Defense:  #45
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #30
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1              LRMC:              #47

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #6/#3           Tempo Total/Off:   #338/#319
Consistency:       #78             Consistency:       #55
Last 4 games:      #1              Last 4 games:      #4

UCLA has made a remarkable rise in the power ratings in just 5 tournament games, advancing from a play-in 11-seed ranked in the 40s by all power ratings, to a solid top 20 to top 30 team (LRMC is the pre-tourney ranking). They're still a far cry from Gonzaga's unanimous #1, with top FIVE offense and defense now.

If pace is important, than this game will show that. UCLA plays at a snail's pace compared to Gonzaga's fast tempo. The main difference will be when the Zags have the ball; they want to strike very fast while UCLA's defense bogs teams down in half-court hell.

 

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.

The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.

Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.

The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65. The Bulldogs decimation of USC was a thing of beauty, probably the best game a team has played this tournament, considering that USC's beatdown of Kansas was clearly another high-water mark. Drew Timme had 23 points, mostly in the first half as the game was already put out of reach at 49-30.

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Season overview: UCLA

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =(6)BYU+11, =(14)Abilene Christian+20, =(2)Alabama+OT, =(1)Michigan+2 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (12)Oregon St.+5, =(2)Alabama+OT, =(1)Michigan+2 
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)USC-18, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8

Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.

What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.

The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.

Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU, and led with 17 against Abilene Christian. Six Bruins scored in double figures in the 88-78 overtime win vs. 2-seed Alabama. UCLA had another close win left in the tank as they survived three late 3-point attempts by the Wolverines and won 51-49; Juzang was unstoppable hitting 11 of 19 shots for 28 points.

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Game Analysis: Will UCLA's luck run out like every other 11-seed? LSU was the first real 11-seed in the 1986 tournament; they lost to eventual winner 2-seed Louisville 88-77. George Mason famously made the Final Four in 2006 but lost to eventual winner 3-seed Florida, 73-58. VCU was the first play-in 11-seed in 2011 and made the Final Four, losing to runner-up Butler (8-seed) 70-62; and a few years back Loyola Chicago stormed the Final Four before falling to 3-seed Michigan 69-57.

UCLA's odds are about as good as those teams' odds were, probably worse since they're facing a 1-seed and an undefeated 1-seed at that. And an undefeated 1-seed that is playing its best basketball of the season. To be fair so is UCLA, but the Bruins are scraping by on overtime or 2 points in three of their five wins. 

The tempo difference is as stark as we've seen in the tournament. UCLA's offense is slow and doesn't turn the ball over, so on that side of the court the game will probably be very slow-paced. When Gonzaga has the ball things will change if Gonzaga has their way, but not if UCLA can establish a solid half-court defense. The difficulty there is defense is UCLA's weak point, and they're facing the top offense in the land. Maybe tempo can be an equalizer?

In terms of getting another upset, UCLA might be finally out of luck. Against 2-seed Alabama and 1-seed Michigan they were facing teams that perform inconsistently. Gonzaga isn't one of those teams. UCLA isn't either, though we can assume they're playing steadily on the upside of their range right now. That's still not enough to overcome the Bulldogs unless the Bulldogs have a down day, and they don't have that very often. In fact it looks like they've been getting better every game for the last month or so.

 

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   14

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   13.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:     86.2% 
UCLA:        13.8% 

Recent game performance (last 4): 

Gonzaga:     100%   
UCLA:          0%

Gonzaga by   11.0 

As expected, a pretty solid line in favor of Gonzaga. Our percentage-to-win for the full season is 86%, much greater than the historical 57% 1-seeds have over 11-seeds (they've won 4 of 7 meetings). This is the first meeting for an 11-seed and a 1-seed in the Final Four.

Over the course of the tournament, every game Gonzaga has played is better than every game UCLA has played. The 4-game span doesn't count UCLA's play-in game, which was their worst performance anyway, so it's still 100-0 for Gonzaga.

Bottom line: It would take a huge drop in performance for Gonzaga to lose to UCLA, even with the Bruins playing at their highest level. Mark Few seems to be coaching his best and should keep any overconfidence in check. We don't see UCLA winning another close one, or even having a close game here.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 94, UCLA 71

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Baylor vs. (2) Houston

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Baylor Bears
Seed: 1
Record: 26-2
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Houston Cougars
Seed: 2
Record: 28-3
Conference: American

Date: Saturday, April 2
Time: 5:14 pm Eastern
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

Houston did it—they reached their first Final Four since the (H)Akeem Olajuwon era in 1984. Meanwhile Baylor reached their first Final Four since 1950. We're not even sure whose era that was.

     Baylor                             Houston

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #4
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #3 
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #7
   Defense:  #28                      Defense:  #8
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #3
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #3              LRMC:              #5

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #186/#112       Tempo Total/Off:   #328/#331
Consistency:       #206            Consistency:       #207
SOS:               #77             SOS:               #99
Last 4 games:      #3              Last 4 games:      #6

This is a Final Four matchup for sure, according to the power ratings all of which have both teams in the top four (excuse LRMC's #5 for Houston as it's a pre-tourney ranking). Interestingly Houston has the more balanced offense and defensive play, ranking in the top ten of both measures while Baylor still has an outside-the-top-25 defense.

Tempo will be interesting as Houston wants the game to go slow. Baylor isn't exactly a rocket, but they like to play fairly quick on offense so that's where the question lies—how quickly can they find good shots against Houston's D? We include Strength of Schedule here because it shows relatively close values but when we look at the number of tough teams faced by each team, Baylor's schedule is much tougher than Houston's despite the "averaged" values appearing close.

Season overview: Baylor

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(1)Illinois+13, (8)Oklahoma+15, @(6)Texas Tech+8, (3)Kansas+8, @(4)Oklahoma St.+15, @(3)Texas+14, @(3)West Virginia+OT, (4)Oklahoma St.+11, (6)Texas Tech+15, =(16)Hartford+24, =(9)Wisconsin+13, =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Kansas-13, =(4)Oklahoma St.-9
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Baylor raced from the gate ranked #2 and looking like it as they beat future 1-seed Illinois in an otherwise cupcake pre-conference season. Those cupcakes, coupled with their three-week break leaves them with a résumé that would be worthy of a 3-seed any other year in terms of big wins. But this year it's pretty stellar; only 4 teams have more than their 9 tourney-team skins. Amazingly though as they reach the Sweet Sixteen they've beaten none of the rest of the field as the Big Twelve has fizzled out much like the Big Ten.

The Bears' Covid break occurred between game 17 (Texas) and game 18 (Iowa State). Though they beat the 2-win Cyclones it was close, 77-72 at home, by far their worst game of the season at that point. The loss at Kansas wasn't quite as bad but spoiled their perfect season. The Bears recovered over the next three games and looked to be recapturing their form—which would make sense, their practice was greatly limited during the off time—but then they had another relapse, barely beating 9-19 Kansas State 74-68 then falling to Oklahoma State 83-74. They look like they recovered against Hartford, but the jury is still out.

Baylor boasts three players in double figures: Jared Butler (17.1), MaCio Teague (16.2) and Davion Mitchell (14.1). They play a smaller, guard-heavy lineup, often having only one player over 6-5 on the court.  Against Hartford, Teague led the Bears with 22 points.  Against Wisconsin Teague and Mitchell at 16 but it was Matthew Mayer leading off the bench with 17. And in the win over Villanova another bench player, Adam Flagler, led with 16; the Bears won comfortably despite making only 3 of 19 threes as Villanova made just 3 of 17. Teague had 22 in the Bears's solid win over Arkansas.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(6)Texas Tech+11, (11)Wichita St.+7, =(15)Cleveland St.+31, =(10)Rutgers+3, =(11)Syracuse+16, =(12)Oregon St.+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(11)Syracuse+16, =(12)Oregon St.+6
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Wichita St.-5
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (2): @Tulsa-1, @East Carolina-9

Overview: All year Houston has been the interloper in the top 25, the team from a non-major conference who isn't Gonzaga and therefore isn't legit. The Cougars have had to prove themselves time and time again that their schedule doesn't mean everything. And of course when they stumbled against really bad teams like Tulsa and East Carolina, those doubts grew. But with analytics on their side, they hovered in the top ten most of the year in the AP poll, and finally made believers of the selection committee, nabbing a 2-seed.

Quentin Grimes leads the Cougars with 18.0 points per game, adding 6 rebounds. And rebounding is a big reason why Houston offense works despite ranking only #104 in effective field goal percentage; the Cougars are #2 in offensive rebounding, meaning they get a lot of 2nd chances, which is how they can rank #8 in offensive efficiency per Pomeroy. On defense, they're top 10 against both 2s and 3s, and they get a lot of blocks and steals, those these stats are unadjusted for competition. 

Houston blitzed Cleveland State 87-56 in round 1, with Grimes scoring his typical 18 to lead the team. Grimes led with 22 against Rutgers as the Cougars held off the Scarlet Knights 63-60. Houston didn't shoot well against Syracuse, making just 38% but they held the Orange to 28% in the 62-46 win; Grimes had 14. And Maurice Calloo came off the bench and scored 13 in the Cougars' 67-61 win over Oregon State to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1984.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Baylor's path to the Final Four was assisted a bit by some upsets. They got some help from Wisconsin upsetting a UNC team that was on a roll, and they avoided having to face 2-seed Ohio State thanks to Oral Roberts. But their seed path was still 16-9-5-3 rather than the slightly more difficult 16-8-4-2.

Houston on the other hand had their road paved for them; instead the expected 15-7-3-1 path, they faced 15-10-11-12, the easiest path to the Final Four in 64-team tournament history (by simple addition). 10-seed Rutgers upset 7-seed Clemson, while 11-seed Syracuse beat 6-seed San Diego State and 3-seed West Virginia, and 12-seed Oregon State knocked off the 5-seed, 4-seed, and 8-seed Loyola Chicago—who knocked off 1-seed Illinois. That's a lot of good teams they didn't have to face.

Neither team is very tall, and both play guard-heavy lineups with taller guards or forwards at the F/C positions. Houston's top rebounding offense should do well against Baylor's D, but Baylor's offensive rebounding is great too (#7) and they shoot the ball a lot better than Houston. On the other hand Houston defends the shot better than anyone—at least based on the schedule they've faced, which hasn't been nearly as good as Baylor's, either for the full season or in the tournament itself.

While Baylor has defeated 13 tournament teams now, Houston has topped just 6. And that's just the start. Houston hasn't beat a team awarded higher than a 6-seed, and that happened before the tournament. Baylor just beat a 3-seed and a 5-seed and during the regular season they beat 3-seeds three more times and beat 1-seed Illinois too. The Bears' average SOS is drawn down by several pre-conference wins over teams ranking in the 300s while Houston tried to supplement their weak conference slate with some decent pre-season games; they also beat NIT winner Memphis twice which helps their ranking.

Vegas Line:

Baylor by   5

Power rating: spread

Baylor by   1.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Baylor:        55.2% 
Houston:       44.8% 

Recent game performance (last 4): 

Baylor:        75.0%   
Houston:       25.0%

Baylor by   4.3 

Vegas makes Baylor a healthy 5-point favorite, and the way they're playing in the tournament it's hard to disagree. For the full season we show Baylor winning by about a point, with a 55% chance. That includes Baylor's post-Covid slump which they have put behind them for sure. More recent play—just the tournament—expands that to 75% and a four-point win. 1-seeds beat 2-seeds 53.8% of the time so the full-season odds seem more applicable, but in just Final Four matchups 1-seeds win 2/3 of the time.

Bottom line: Houston goes from facing overachieving double-digit seeds to taking on Baylor, a team that might be as good as they've been all year. We said early on if no one stopped Baylor early it would be tough, and it looks too tough for Houston.

Final prediction: Baylor 81, Houston 67

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Michigan vs. (11) UCLA

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 1
Record: 23-4
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 21-9
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Monday, March 29
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

Can UCLA become the 3rd 11-seed since 2010—and 2nd play-in 11-seed—to make the Final Four?

     Michigan                           UCLA

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #26
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #16
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #11
   Defense:  #8                       Defense:  #55
BPI:               #5              BPI:               #30
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #8              LRMC:              #47

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #247/#192       Tempo Total/Off:   #337/#313
Consistency:       #317            Consistency:       #55
Last 3 games:      #7              Last 3 games:      #5

Michigan has stayed about where they started the tournament in the power ratings, in a narrow range in the top ten, even on both offense and defense, though they started #2 in Pomeroy. UCLA is all over the place: should they be in the teens, 20s, 30s, or 40s? LRMC's #47 may seem out of line but that's from before the tournament started, and the Bruins were #46, #44, and #42 in Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI at that time. Their offense was #26 and defense #86 in Pomeroy. What a difference four games makes!

Despite this upward revision UCLA's consistency rating remains high; they're not playing out of their heads, just at the top of their range; two overtime wins and beating Abilene Christian soundly isn't too far off their average performance. Though the Bruins outrank Michigan over a 3-game stretch, if we use 4-games for UCLA to include the Michigan State game they drop to #9. 

 

Season overview: Michigan

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): @(10)Maryland+11, (9)Wisconsin+23, (10)Maryland+24, @(4)Purdue+17, @(9)Wisconsin+8, (10)Rutgers+7, @(2)Ohio St.+5, (2)Iowa+22, (11)Michigan St.+19, =(10)Maryland+13, =(16)Texas Southern+16, =(8)LSU+8, =(4)Florida St.+18 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(4)Florida St.+18
• Losses to tournament teams (3): (1)Illinois-23, @(11)Michigan St.-6, =(2)Ohio St.-1
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (1): @Minnesota-18

Overview: Michigan's season is full of tremendous wins and a few inexplicably bad losses. Juwan Howard's team raced to 11-0 and became the first team ever to beat three ranked teams in a row by 19 points or more; those were 10-seed Maryland, 9-seed Wisconsin, and in-between, Minnesota, who was ranked at the time. Immediately following the Wisconsin win they played Minnesota again and lost 75-57, a 43 point turnaround from the meeting at Ann Arbor. But the Wolverines picked up right where they'd left off, beating Maryland, 4-seed Purdue, Wisconsin, 2-seed Ohio State, and 2-seed Iowa over a 7-game stretch. 

Then they faced 1-seed Illinois, who was missing leading scorer Ayo Dosunmu...and got blown away, 76-53, at home. They clubbed Michigan State, but then lost to the Spartans in Lansing. They blasted Maryland in the Big Ten tournament but fell to Ohio State in a battle. So it looks like Michigan is a national title caliber team, for sure—they just have to go six games without hitting one of their freakish underperformances.

The Wolverines are led by freshman center Hunter Dickinson's 14.2 points and 7.6 rebounds; he did a great job defending against Iowa's Luka Garza in that win. On offense Michigan shoots the three at a 38.7% clip but often opts for the 2 where they are good, too. They make 78% of their free throws and rarely turn the ball over. Their defense is just as strong as their offense; they are lockdown on 2-pointers, making opponents shoot the three if they can, and rebound the misses. They don't force turnovers but do block quite a few shots.

Isaiah Livers is their #2 scorer at 13.1 ppg and adds 6.0 rebounds and might miss the whole tournament. He's important for their 3-point shooting (43%) in particular.

Guard Mike Smith led the Wolverines against Texas Southern with 18 points. Eli Brooks carried the weight against LSU, scoring 21 with 5 of 9 three-point shooting. Four Wolverines had double-digits in the big FSU win, including Franz Wagner who had 13 points and 10 rebounds.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: UCLA

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =(6)BYU+11, =(14)Abilene Christian+20, =(2)Alabama+OT 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (12)Oregon St.+5, =(2)Alabama+OT 
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)USC-18, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8

Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.

What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.

The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.

Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU, and led with 17 against Abilene Christian. Six Bruins scored in double figures in the 88-78 overtime win vs. 2-seed Alabama. 

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: It turns out that 11-seeds in general are pretty amazing. I've spent a lot of time harping about how play-in 11-seeds overperform greatly, and they do—if you look at the full history of 11-seeds, the play-in teams do a lot better.

But if you look at 11-seeds since 2010, they're a pretty incredible group: 21 of 40 won their first game (in other words, 11-seeds are more likely to win the 6 vs. 11 contest), 12 of them (30%) made the Sweet Sixteen, 5 made the Elite Eight, and 2 made the Final Four. UCLA could make the last number a 3. So it's not just the play-in teams that overperform; you should expect 11-seeds to win four games between them each year, on average. (This year the win count is already five, between UCLA's three "real" wins and Syracuse's Sweet Sixteen run). In other words, when in doubt, pick the 11-seed to win vs. the 6-seed.

Back to the game at hand. Michigan is the unpredictable team and they will determine what happens here. Have they hit their stride, going by their beatdown of Florida State? Don't start thinking that, because Michigan can turn on a dime and have a really bad game. Or just a sub-par game. You'd think with a top ten offense and defense in efficiency they'd play at a consistent level, but somehow that's not the case. And it's not really 3-pointers making a difference; they shoot those very well but not really all that often so they're not dependent on making threes.

Both teams play a slower tempo on offense and defense, protect the ball well, rebound well, and shoot the 3 well. Michigan will have the height advantage inside, which could be important; they also shoot free throws a lot better, important in a potentially close game.

Vegas Line:

Michigan by   7

Power rating: spread

Michigan by   6.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan:    69.9% 
UCLA:        30.1% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Michigan:    52.8%   
UCLA:        47.2%

Michigan by   1.3 

1-seeds have met 11-seeds a total of 7 times and are just 4-3 against them (57%). So Michigan's 70% chance to win is pretty large, and Vegas agrees with our point spread generally. For recent games the odds for Michigan narrow, and that's key—1-seeds only meet 11-seeds at the Elite Eight, which means those 11-seeds are playing their best. Over the last 6 games the Wolverines have a 53% edge, and over the last 4 games it's a 50/50 proposition (Michigan by 1), and over the last 3 UCLA has a 1 point edge at 56%.

Bottom line: I picked against both teams—Michigan to get upset, UCLA to fall short of the upset—last round so that doesn't leave a good track record figuring out what these teams are going to do. I still say Michigan stumbles at some point, and I can't believe UCLA made it this far. It's a coin flip for me whose luck runs out, but UCLA has been living on the edge from the beginning and they have to lose a close one at some point.

Final prediction: Michigan 69, UCLA 68

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Gonzaga vs. (6) USC

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 29-0
Conference: West Coast

vs.

USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 25-7
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Date: Tuesday, March 30
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

Is it time for Gonzaga to have a scare at the hands of suddenly-hot USC?

     Gonzaga                            USC

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #7 
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #6
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #14
   Defense:  #7                       Defense:  #4
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #8 
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1              LRMC:              #11

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #6/#3           Tempo Total/Off:   #234/#194
Consistency:       #77             Consistency:       #313
Last 3 games:      #2              Last 3 games:      #1

Gonzaga started the year #1, they started the tournament #1, and they're still a unanimous #1 in the power ratings. USC is firmly in the top ten, but that's not where they started. The LRMC's ranking is pre-tourney and they were #11—the highest anyone had them. The Trojans began the tournament #14 in Pomeroy, #15 in Strength, and #16 in BPI, and have moved up a uniform 8 spots in each ranking. In Pomeroy their offense was #30, defense #19, and they've moved up almost linearly there, too.

There's somewhat of a tempo clash here—not unusual for fast-paced Gonzaga. USC plays mid-tempo offense and locks down on defense (#338) for long possessions. On defense Gonzaga plays "slow" too (#279)—it's when the Zags have the ball that they want to run while USC wants to tie them down in halfcourt.

Over the first 3 games of the tournament, these are the teams playing the best so far—with USC about a point better.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)Creighton+18
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.

The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.

Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.

The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: USC

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(11)Drake+16, =(3)Kansas+34, =(7)Oregon+14 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(7)Oregon+14 
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(12)Oregon St.-2
• Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10

Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.

USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.

Evan Mobley led with 17 against Drake while Isaiah added 15 in the 72-56 win; Isaiah had 17 in the stunning 85-51 beatdown of Kansas, while Evan had 10 points and 13 rebounds. USC's 2nd match with Oregon went much like the first one, with the Trojans holding a big lead most of the game and winning by 14. Isaiah White led with 22.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: There's a big man matchup underneath, and guard play on the outside to consider; these are two of the tallest teams in college basketball, with Gonzaga at #29 and USC at #2.

Can the Trojans use their height to their advantage? The Zags start 6-4, 6-4, 6-5, and 6-7 along with 6-10 Timme; the Trojans counter with 6-2, 6-7, 6-8, and 6-10 Isaiah Mobley along with 7-0 Evan Mobley. The Trojans essentially have two players who can match Timme inside while their tall guard/forward players can out-length Gonzaga's guard/forwards. This might mean Jalen Suggs will become Gonzaga's most important player, as he's the only one with a height edge and will be responsible for creating matchups that negate USC's height advantage.

USC's recent performance has been pretty great, but a lot of it comes from their blowout against Kansas, which was one of the very best games played by any team this year. Since that's unlikely to happen again, we can pretty safely say these teams are playing at about the same level so far in the tournament. Neither has had won by fewer than 14, so there's no realistic way to compare blowout to blowout—a basket at the end here or there would change the calculus.

And really, Gonzaga's not the only one that needs to be tested. USC has had a pretty easy run so far, never being down in the 2nd half. We could just as easily ask how they will handle the gut-check of a close game? The difference is, that's for the tournament; Gonzaga hasn't been pushed by a close game all season. At least, not since beating West Virginia 87-82, where the game was tied with 6:30 to go. More recently they turned back BYU when the Cougars led by 9 with 9:00 left, but by the end they had a 10 point lead. The way USC is playing, this game could be their toughest of the season so far.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   9

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   7.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:    72.2% 
USC:        27.8% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Gonzaga:    72.2%   
USC:        27.8%

Gonzaga by   4.6 

The Zags are a fairly healthy favorite by Vegas; we give them a 72% chance to win which is almost exactly the 72.7% win rate 1-seeds have had against 6-seeds (78% in the Elite Eight, 72.7%, or 8 of 11, in Elite Eight and Final Four). That win rate is the same over the last 6 games sample, but the margin drops from 7.9 to 4.6 mostly due to USC's monster win over Kansas skewing things. Over the last 3 games, Gonzaga's odds are 55.6% but USC is the "average" favorite by 1.3 points, again due to the Kansas win.

Bottom line: It's time for a big test of Gonzaga, and USC is the team on fire at the moment. We're looking for a nail-biter finish but think the Zags pull it out, as championship teams do.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 79, USC 77

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Baylor vs. (3) Arkansas

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Baylor Bears
Seed: 1
Record: 25-2
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 3
Record: 25-6
Conference: SEC

Date: Monday, March 29
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

After all the upsets the South region boils down to a 1-seed vs. a 3-seed.

     Baylor                             Arkansas

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #11
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #16
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #45
   Defense:  #27                      Defense:  #8
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #13
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #3              LRMC:              #18

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #178/#96        Tempo Total/Off:   #17/#36
Consistency:       #228            Consistency:       #257
Last 3 games:      #3              Last 3 games:      #24

Baylor keeps its seemingly permanent #2 ranking, while Arkansas flirts with the top ten. The Razorbacks are top ten on defense, which is where they'll have to make their stand against the Bears' top 5 offense. On offense they can hope for breakdowns against Baylor's not-quite top 25 D. Another area of contention will be tempo, where the Razorbacks want to speed it up. They'll need to do something as they haven't been playing the best basketball of the Elite Eight teams.

Season overview: Baylor

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(1)Illinois+13, (8)Oklahoma+15, @(6)Texas Tech+8, (3)Kansas+8, @(4)Oklahoma St.+15, @(3)Texas+14, @(3)West Virginia+OT, (4)Oklahoma St.+11, (6)Texas Tech+15, =(16)Hartford+24, =(9)Wisconsin+13, =(5)Villanova+11 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)Villanova+11
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Kansas-13, =(4)Oklahoma St.-9
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Baylor raced from the gate ranked #2 and looking like it as they beat future 1-seed Illinois in an otherwise cupcake pre-conference season. Those cupcakes, coupled with their three-week break leaves them with a résumé that would be worthy of a 3-seed any other year in terms of big wins. But this year it's pretty stellar; only 4 teams have more than their 9 tourney-team skins. Amazingly though as they reach the Sweet Sixteen they've beaten none of the rest of the field as the Big Twelve has fizzled out much like the Big Ten.

The Bears' Covid break occurred between game 17 (Texas) and game 18 (Iowa State). Though they beat the 2-win Cyclones it was close, 77-72 at home, by far their worst game of the season at that point. The loss at Kansas wasn't quite as bad but spoiled their perfect season. The Bears recovered over the next three games and looked to be recapturing their form—which would make sense, their practice was greatly limited during the off time—but then they had another relapse, barely beating 9-19 Kansas State 74-68 then falling to Oklahoma State 83-74. They look like they recovered against Hartford, but the jury is still out.

Baylor boasts three players in double figures: Jared Butler (17.1), MaCio Teague (16.2) and Davion Mitchell (14.1). They play a smaller, guard-heavy lineup, often having only one player over 6-5 on the court.  Against Hartford, Teague led the Bears with 22 points.  Against Wisconsin Teague and Mitchell at 16 but it was Matthew Mayer leading off the bench with 17. And in the win over Villanova another bench player, Adam Flagler, led with 16; the Bears won comfortably despite making only 3 of 19 threes as Villanova made just 3 of 17.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Arkansas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (13)North Texas+15, (15)Oral Roberts+11, (14)Abilene Christian+13, @(9)Missouri+OT, (7)Florida+11, (2)Alabama+15, (8)LSU+8, =(9)Missouri+6, =(14)Colgate+17, =(6)Texas Tech+2, =(15)Oral Roberts+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (15)Oral Roberts+11, (2)Alabama+15, =(15)Oral Roberts+2
• Losses to tournament teams (6): (9)Missouri-13, @(5)Tennessee-5, @(8)LSU-16, @(2)Alabama-31, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, =(8)LSU-7
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(2)Alabama-31
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Arkansas has an excellent record against the field, winning 5 games against SEC teams that made the cut and beating three other small-conference champs while they were at it. They also took their lumps in the SEC, including a stretch where they lost 4 of 5, but they turned their season around and won nine straight, 12 straight in-conference before losing to LSU in the SEC tournament. They didn't lose a game to a non-tournament team, nor did they lose to any team seeded lower than 9.

Moses Moody (17.4ppg) leads four scorers in double figures. The Razorbacks aren't reliant on shooting the 3, and don't shoot it particularly well, but they're above 50% on 2-pointers. On defense they're pretty good across the board. Justin Smith's 29 led the team against Colgate in their back-and-forth 85-68 victory; all of his 20 points against Texas Tech were needed in the Hogs' 68-66 2nd round win.

Arkansas now has 3 wins over the Sweet Sixteen field, including one over Oral Roberts from back in December. The tournament game against the Eagles was even more challenging; just like the first game, Oral Roberts led at half, this time 35-28, and led by 12 in the 2nd half before the Hogs battled back to take the lead with 5 minutes to go and held on to win 72-70. Jalen Tate led with 22 points.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: It may not look like Arkansas is playing very well. Beating 15-seed Oral Roberts by 2 points would win a team a lot of plaudits during the regular season. But Oral Roberts was a legit Sweet Sixteen team, and Arkansas took care of business, though just barely. A convincing win would have made their chances against Baylor look a lot better, but they also might have made Baylor take the Razorbacks' threat more seriously too. Right now I can almost imagine Baylor looking ahead to playing Houston.

Meanwhile Baylor beat Villanova while making only three 3-pointers, shooting 15.8% instead of their normal 40+%. They are pretty certainly "back" from their post-Covid slump, but are they "back" to their pre-Covid quality? It's hard to say after just three games, but it appears they are playing about as well as they did in their pre-Covid peak. This is bad news for Arkansas, and for everyone except maybe Gonzaga.

Arkansas has a very good defense, so with luck they can temper the Bears' great offense and pray for another bad three-point shooting day from Baylor. The downside is this: if Baylor makes their threes instead of missing them, they beat Villanova by 30 points and that could happen to Arkansas. On offense Arkansas needs to impose their fast tempo and hope it disrupts Baylor's sort-of-questionable defense. 

A little overconfidence from Baylor would go a long way to an Arkansas win, too. Arkansas won't have that problem going against Baylor, and certainly not after beating a 15-seed by 2 points.

Vegas Line:

Baylor by   7

Power rating: spread

Baylor by   5.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Baylor:        64.2% 
Arkansas:      35.8% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Baylor:        58.3%   
Arkansas:      41.7%

Baylor by   5.2 

In the history of the Elite Eight 3-seeds have met 1-seeds 25 times and won 9 meetings, or 36%; this is almost exactly what we have for Arkansas' odds of winning. 3-seeds have won an additional 4 (out of 10) times in the later rounds, making their overall average 37%.

You can see the oddsmakers giving Baylor a little extra, probably for the fact that they beat a 5-seed fairly easily while Arkansas struggled mightily with a 15-seed.

Bottom line: We're in potential blowout territory here as Baylor hits their stride and Arkansas is worn out from the Oral Roberts game. The smart money probably takes Baylor by 30 but we picked Arkansas in our Final Four before the tournament and are bound to it, going with the very unexpected upset.

Final prediction: Arkansas 74, Baylor 71

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Houston vs. (12) Oregon State

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 2
Record: 27-3
Conference: American

vs.

Oregon State Beavers
Seed: 12
Record: 20-12
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Monday, March 29
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: CBS

 

Can Houston make their first Final Four since 1984 by beating their fourth double-digit seed in a row?

     Houston                            Oregon State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #4              Strength:          #56
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #43
   Offense:  #8                       Offense:  #35
   Defense:  #6                       Defense:  #63
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #67
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #5              LRMC:              #77

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #326/#326       Tempo Total/Off:   #304/#318
Consistency:       #224            Consistency:       #330
Last 3 games:      #5              Last 3 games:      #4

The gaps between Houston and its opponents remains wide, as they face a 12-seed now that is only borderline top 50 by the estimation of the power ratings, with mediocre offense and defense. Houston remains top 10 in both offense and defense by comparison, so on paper this is a mismatch. But Oregon State keeps winning games, and for the tournament so far their performance has been equal to or better than Houston's.

Oregon State's low consistency implies a more random performance level and it's been on the upside during the tournament, and really for the last six games Oregon State's played at a consistentent, high level. There's no tempo discrepancy between the teams at all, though, which would seem to favor the favorite more than the team looking for an upset.

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(6)Texas Tech+11, (11)Wichita St.+7, =(15)Cleveland St.+31, =(10)Rutgers+3, =(11)Syracuse+16 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(11)Syracuse+16
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Wichita St.-5
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (2): @Tulsa-1, @East Carolina-9

Overview: All year Houston has been the interloper in the top 25, the team from a non-major conference who isn't Gonzaga and therefore isn't legit. The Cougars have had to prove themselves time and time again that their schedule doesn't mean everything. And of course when they stumbled against really bad teams like Tulsa and East Carolina, those doubts grew. But with analytics on their side, they hovered in the top ten most of the year in the AP poll, and finally made believers of the selection committee, nabbing a 2-seed.

Quentin Grimes leads the Cougars with 18.0 points per game, adding 6 rebounds. And rebounding is a big reason why Houston offense works despite ranking only #104 in effective field goal percentage; the Cougars are #2 in offensive rebounding, meaning they get a lot of 2nd chances, which is how they can rank #8 in offensive efficiency per Pomeroy. On defense, they're top 10 against both 2s and 3s, and they get a lot of blocks and steals, those these stats are unadjusted for competition. 

Houston blitzed Cleveland State 87-56 in round 1, with Grimes scoring his typical 18 to lead the team. Grimes led with 22 against Rutgers as the Cougars held off the Scarlet Knights 63-60. Houston didn't shoot well against Syracuse, making just 38% but they held the Orange to 28% in the 62-46 win; Grimes had 14.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Oregon State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(5)Colorado+2, =(5)Tennessee+14, =(4)Oklahoma St.+10, =(8)Loyola Chicago+7 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(8)Loyola Chicago+7
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, @(5)Colorado-29, (5)Colorado-4, (7)Oregon-13
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, (7)Oregon-13
• Other losses (7): @Washington St.-4, Wyoming-3, Portland-OT, Stanford-10, Arizona-34, @Arizona-9, @Arizona St.-2

Overview: Before the Pac-12 tournament, wins over USC and Oregon in games 12 and 13 were all Oregon State could claim on its résumé, which certainly wasn't Big Dance worthy. But in three days they added UCLA, Colorado, and another win over Oregon to their list. 17-12 might seem borderline for an NCAA tournament team but it sure beats 7-9, which is what the Beavers were on February 20th.

Oregon State is led by guard Ethan Thompson who averages 15.3 points per game; he also leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Warith Alatishe is 3rd in points at 9.9 and leads with 8.5 rebounds. Roman Silva led the team with 16 points against Tennessee, while Thompson had 26 points—making 15 of 16 free throws—in the upset of Oklahoma State. Thompson led with 22 against Loyola Chicago as the Beavers upset the Ramblers 65-58.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Which team is hotter right now? It's hard to tell, and it often is at the Elite Eight since playing three solid games is almost a prerequisite to get here. Houston has defeated only double-digit seeds so far, a 15, 10, and 11. If the Cougars beat 12-seed Oregon State to make the Final Four, will it be the easiest path in NCAA 64-team history? They would be the only team to make it without facing at least a 9-seed.

Meanwhile Oregon State beat the tougher opponents—a 5-seed, a 4-seed, and an 8-seed; and if you add the Pac-12 tournament, they also beat an 11-seed (UCLA), a 7-seed (Oregon), and another 5-seed (Colorado). Their 6-game post-season run is really quite impressive.

Oregon State is the more "random" team over the course of the season by far, but lately they've seemingly settled into a groove of steady, high-level performance, while Houston is a lot more all-over-the-place recently. Is Houston due for a bad game? Their relatively poor shooting figures can make or break a game for them, which lead many to dismiss their chances for a deep run in the tournament. But as they showed against Syracuse, they can shoot very poorly (38%) and still win by 16 points, as their opponents almost never shoot well against them.

And as poor of a shooting team Houston is, this is one game where it's less likely to matter. The Cougars are #122 in effective field goal percentage per Pomeroy, but Oregon State's defense is just #120. And the Beavers are a much worse shooting team—#222—while Houston is #1 on defense. The Cougars also look to have a big rebounding edge leading to more 2nd shots.

The teams play at nearly an identical tempo on offense, too, so there's little to ruffle Houston's feathers and get them out of their game. Oregon State is going to have to continue to play as well as they have during the tournament—which is possible—and hope that Houston is the one to have a bad day, basically. They can also try to exploit Houston's lack of height with 7-1 Roman Silva underneath; he's one of the few Beavers to shoot over 50% in 2-pointers, where Houston's defense is #4.

Vegas Line:

Houston by   8

Power rating: spread

Houston by   11.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston:        73.6% 
Oregon State:   26.4% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Houston:        58.3%   
Oregon State:   41.7%

Houston by   2.8 

As is often the case at this stage of the tournament, Vegas' odds are a combination of full-season performance and recent success for both teams, so their line is narrower than the Strength power rating line for the full year. We give the Beavers about a 1 in 4 chance for the upset; only one 12-seed has ever faced a 2-seed (Missouri vs. Oklahoma, in 2002) and they lost 81-75.

Using the last 6 games, which corresponds to Oregon State's run through the Pac-12 tournament and trip to the Elite Eight, Houston still comes out on top, but by just 3 points or so.

Bottom line: If Oregon State keeps up their great performance, this is going to be a very close game, and Houston will have to play their best to win. The Cougars often struggle to make shots but we can't get past Oregon State's poor shooting offense going up against Houston's lockdown shooting defense. This game might not be pretty.

Final prediction: Houston 51, Oregon State 45

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (6) USC vs. (7) Oregon

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 24-7
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Oregon Ducks
Seed: 7
Record: 21-6
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: TBS

 

Two Pac-12 teams—one who has played only one game—meet in the Sweet Sixteen.

     USC                                Oregon

Power Ratings

Strength:          #8              Strength:          #19
Pomeroy:           #6              Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense:  #15                      Offense:  #10
   Defense:  #5                       Defense:  #52
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #29
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #11             LRMC:              #30

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #236/#190       Tempo Total/Off:   #227/#183
Consistency:       #318            Consistency:       #69
Last 2 games:      #1              Last 2 games:      #3

These are two of the hottest teams in the tournament—even if Oregon's result is based on just one game. USC has made its way firmly into the top 10 of the power ratings (LRMC almost had them there already) while the Ducks are mostly in the top 20. Oregon's defense is the outlier here, however, in efficiency.

Season overview: USC

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(11)Drake+16, =(3)Kansas+34 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1 
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(12)Oregon St.-2
• Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10

Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.

USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.

Evan Mobley led with 17 against Drake while Isaiah added 15 in the 72-56 win; Isaiah had 17 in the stunning 85-51 beatdown of Kansas, while Evan had 10 points and 13 rebounds.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Oregon

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (14)Eastern Washington+17, (5)Colorado+4, (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13, =(2)Iowa+15 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Missouri-8, @(5)Colorado-7, (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
• Other losses (1): Washington St.-3

Overview: Oregon lost to 9-seed Missouri early but won 8 straight after that, mostly over cupcakes though that included 14-seed Eastern Washington. After losing to Colorado and beating Utah on January 9, they had Covid issues, not playing again for two weeks; that was a bad loss to Oregon State, after which they had another 2 weeks off before losing to 14-13 Washington State. They barely beat lowly 5-21 Washington, but seemed to recover after that, winning 5 straight in all before the USC loss, after which they played their very best in winning 6 straight. Then they played terribly in their last game, losing to Oregon State. If not for that last dud, Oregon might look like a team that's going places.

Oregon has five scorers in double figures, led by 6-6 senior guard Chris Duarte and 6-6 senior forward Eugene Omoruyi, both of whom average 16.7 points per game. The Ducks shoot the ball well and pretty much do everything right on offense; they don't defend nearly as well.

Oregon had the strangest "win" in NCAA tournament history on Saturday, advancing to the Round of 32 because VCU couldn't compete due to positive Covid tests. The game was declared a No Contest, like it was a boxing match, except that usually happens after the fight. This makes the contrast between their last game—the bad loss to Oregon State—and their dominant win over Iowa even more stark. Chris Duarte had 23 and LJ Figueroa 21 as the starters scored all but 6 points in the 95-80 win over the Hawkeyes despite 36 points from Luka Garza.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Oregon's status as a 1-game winner in the Sweet Sixteen is unprecedented in the 64-team era. Of course from 1975-1984 it was normal to only need one win to make the Sweet Sixteen, and before that teams often started the tournament there. But it's unheard of for the last 35 years. And think about this—what if Drake had defeated USC and made it this far? They'd have three tournament wins, and would be facing 1-win Oregon.

It's hard to say what affect Oregon's bye had on their game with Iowa, but they pulled ahead at the end of the first half when teams are normally tiring. Of course, this logic would imply that 11-seed play-in teams are at a big disadvantage and they seem to do just fine.

The main dynamic in this game is the fact that the teams have faced each other before—surprisingly, only once. USC won that game 72-58 playing at home, but playing without Isaiah Mobley. With him, USC's height advantage over the uniformly 6-6 Ducks is even greater. 

In the first meeting USC's Tahj Eaddy scored 24 points hitting 6 of 11 threes; in all USC made 10 of 21 threes. If they only make 7 of those that's a 9 point swing in Oregon's favor; it still doesn't close the 12 point gap but makes the game closer. USC opened the first game and raced to a 15-0 lead; after that the game was essentially even but then again, that's all USC needed it to be.

Vegas Line:

USC by   2 1/2

Power rating: spread

USC by   3.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

USC:        56.5% 
Oregon:     43.5% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

USC:        52.8%   
Oregon:     47.2%

USC by   6.0 

The 6-seed vs. 7-seed matchup has only happened 7 times, and the 6-seed has won 4 of 7 (57%). So our 56.5% odds for USC are right in line with that. It tightens even more over the last 6-game sample but the average margin widens to 6 points for USC.

Bottom line: Oregon's win over Iowa was special, but it was nothing compared to how USC demolished Kansas. Neither team is likely to repeat that level of play; it's more likely to look like their previous meeting which USC won without Isaiah Mobley.

Final prediction: USC 78, Oregon 65

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2021 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Alabama vs. (11) UCLA

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 2
Record: 26-6
Conference: SEC

vs.

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 20-9
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: TBS

 

UCLA is the 5th play-in team in 10 tournaments to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Will they be the 2nd to reach the Elite Eight?

     Alabama                            UCLA

Power Ratings

Strength:          #7              Strength:          #29
Pomeroy:           #8              Pomeroy:           #24
   Offense:  #28                      Offense:  #12
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #63
BPI:               #8              BPI:               #34
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #6              LRMC:              #47

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #11/#3          Tempo Total/Off:   #337/#309
Consistency:       #331            Consistency:       #57
Last 2 games:      #13             Last 2 games:      #7

Advantage to the 2-seed Alabama according to the numbers, though UCLA has the better offense. That offense will face Alabama's #3 defense while on the other end, UCLA's defense is just #63 and will face a very hurry-up Bama team, #3 in the nation is pulling the trigger quick. Consistency is UCLA's strong point, but that means they are less likely to rise above their #29 Strength. Alabama on the other hand often plays well above or below its #7 Strength ranking. And during the tournament, they've played below it while UCLA is having a rare upward surge—not counting the play-in game itself where they played par for the course.

Season overview: Alabama

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(5)Tennessee+8, (7)Florida+15, (3)Arkansas+31, @(8)LSU+30, (8)LSU+18, =(5)Tennessee+5, =(8)LSU+1, =(15)Iona+13, =(10Maryland+19 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Arkansas+31
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(7)Clemson-8, @(8)Oklahoma-5, @(9)Missouri-3, @(3)Arkansas-15
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(3)Arkansas-15
• Other losses (2): Stanford-18, Western Kentucky-2

Overview: Alabama didn't start the season a powerhouse, in fact they lost three of their first seven games, falling to Stanford 82-64, 7-seed Clemson by 8, and Western Kentucky by 2. But once the SEC season started they were off to the races with nine straight wins, beating 5-seed Tennessee, 7-seed Florida, 3-seed Arkansas (90-59), and 8-seed LSU (105-75 on the road). They lost to red-hot (at the time) 8-seed Oklahoma before beating LSU again for a 10-0 conference start. They dropped games to Missouri and Arkansas, both of whom were on a hot streak, too. They won their last six including three games to win the SEC tournament.

Jaden Shackleford leads the Crimson Tide with 14.2 points per game; three others average double figures as well including #4 scorer Herbert Jones (11.2) who also leads in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Alabama's so-so offensive efficiency comes from so-so shooting—they rank #105 in field goal percentage—and they suffer a lot of blocks and steals in their hurry-up offense. On defense they are spectacular, ranking #10 in opponent eFG% and forcing turnovers.

Guard Josh Primo, the Tide's 5th leading scorer (8.1 ppg), missed the Iona game but returned against Maryland, playing 23 minutes and scoring 10 points.

Herbert Jones led the way with 20 points as Alabama dispatched Iona 68-55 in the first round. Against Maryland Shackleford led with 21 points against Maryland while John Petty Jr. added 20; the two combined to make 9 of 17 three pointers.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: UCLA

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =(6)BYU+11, =(14)Abilene Christian+20 
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (12)Oregon St.+5 
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)USC-18, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
• Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8

Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.

What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.

The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.

Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU, and led with 17 against Abilene Christian.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: UCLA has put together its two best back-to-back games of the season, and just at the right time. They've played games this well only three times during the season, and each time the subsequent game was a dud. On January 9 they beat Washington State 91-61, followed by a 5-point home win over weak Washington. They beat Arizona 74-60 only to barely edge much weaker ASU 80-79 at home. And their solid 76-61 defeat of Utah was followed by a 70-61 loss to Colorado. But after their strong first-round upset over BYU they didn't falter against Abilene Christian, taking control early and coasting to a 20-point win. The question is, can they put three games in a row together?

Alabama played much better against Maryland than it did vs. Iona. They established a first-half lead and put the game out of reach early in the 2nd half. They're also back at full strength with Joshua Primo in the lineup.

The divergence in tempo is a big thing in this game. Tempo discrepancies are normal and are usually just a matter of a few seconds here and there on average, even when one team ranks in the 300s in tempo and the other is in the top 50. But here we see a really big difference: on offense Alabama is the 3rd fastest, while UCLA's defense is #321; that's a difference of 4 seconds per possession on average, and that adds up over time, determining whether a game is 85 possessions or 65 possessions.

On the other end of the court there's no discrepancy, as UCLA's offense is #309 and Alabama's defense #263. So the number of possessions overall is going to be near the lower end, with the pace when the Tide are on offense determining whether there are 65 or 75 possessions. The key for UCLA is no to allow Alabama scoring runs, which they used to batter Maryland in an otherwise even game. Maryland's pace profile is almost exactly like UCLA's.  

Vegas Line:

Alabama by   6 1/2

Power rating: spread

Alabama by   5.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Alabama:     62.8% 
UCLA:        37.2% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Alabama:     75.0%   
UCLA:        25.0%

Alabama by   8.4 

11-seeds have made it this far many times recently, and many have been play-in teams. 11-seeds have a 13% (2 in 13) historical chance to beat 2-seeds, so we're giving UCLA about triple that. The only play-in team 11-seed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen was VCU in 2011, and they only had to beat 10-seed Florida State to advance.

UCLA's last two games are their best back-to-back games. If both teams play like they have so far, it's a 50/50 game—mainly because Alabama played one "dud" and then a great game. If we include UCLA's so-so win over Michigan State then the advantage goes back to the Tide.

Bottom line: Alabama might be forced into halfcourt most of the game, but in those times where they're not they'll take control like they did against Maryland. We also don't see UCLA having a third upside game in a row. Like most play-in successes, their run ends at the Sweet Sixteen.

Final prediction: Alabama 76, UCLA 66

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.