SportsRatings: College Football

post-week 6: Chaos? Alabama, Tennessee stay in Playoff after loss; Penn State out after win

I predicted chaos on week 6 and I got it—just not the games I looked for. And neither Alabama nor Tennessee were critically wounded either for their losses. Let's take a look.

Alabama fell to Vanderbilt, a result I didn't even thing about but should have since it was a classic letdown game. The Tide fall from their top spot to #4, and it's clear they were too close to the sun at 93.3%(!) Playoff Odds last week; that's now 75.8%, still pretty lofty. Tennessee was hurt almost as much for losing to Arkansas but they're still #6. Idle Georgia dropped 2 spots but added 1% to their odds, while Ole Miss gained over 20% after crushing South Carolina, and the downgrade of the Tide and the Vols didn't hurt either as it makes a Rebel conference championship more likely. Texas was idle and moved up to #2 and is in the driver's seat as the only undefeated SEC team.

Ohio State took over at #1 after beating Iowa 35-7. The Big Ten still has FOUR undefeated teams but only three Playoff teams as Penn State's tepid 27-11 win over UCLA caused them to slip out of the Playoff while 6-0 Indiana moved into the last spot. The Hoosiers are for real, will it last? Their win at Northwestern (41-24) wasn't their best performance but their power ratings are great. Oregon had their last warmup before hosting Ohio State next week; that one is the Big Ten's equivalent of Georgia-Alabama this year.

                                      Projected Record              Odds 10/07/2024
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State          *B10    5-0  12-0  11.0- 1.0    91.6   +8.3  >99.9    0.0
  4   2. Texas               *SEC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    88.4   +5.7  >99.9    0.0
  6   3. Miami FL            *ACC    6-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    77.8  +11.2  100.0   +0.1
  1   4. Alabama              SEC    4-1  10-2   9.7- 2.3    75.8  -17.5  >99.9    0.0
  5   5. Oregon               B10    5-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    71.4   -2.5  >99.9    0.0
  3   6. Tennessee            SEC    4-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2    68.8  -14.1  >99.9    0.0
  9   7. Iowa St             *B12    5-0  12-0  10.3- 1.7    61.6  +12.3   99.9   +0.7
 11   8. Mississippi          SEC    5-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    60.7  +20.7  >99.9   +0.6
  7   9. Georgia              SEC    4-1   9-3   9.1- 2.9    56.2   +1.0   99.9    0.0
  8  10. Notre Dame           Ind    4-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    57.9   +2.0   99.8   -0.1
 14  11. Indiana              B10    6-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    50.2  +17.4  100.0   +0.1
 13  12. Brigham Young        B12    5-0  11-1  10.1- 1.9    49.3  +12.1   99.9   +0.3
 10  13. Penn State           B10    5-0  10-2   9.5- 2.5    44.1   +0.2   99.9   +0.5

Iowa State beat Baylor 43-21 and gained another 12% toward their Playoff tuition. They're over 60% now and the clear Big Twelve favorite here, though BYU was up a similar amount this week despite being idle. The Cougars have a great résumé, maybe the best in the country with wins over K-State and SMU. 

Miami was almost part of this weekend's chaos but they overcame a 25 point deficit to beat Cal; the Hurricanes are looking like a team of destiny this year, one of those teams that lucks their way to a national title. The Canes are up 11.2% and are bowl eligible at 6-0, will their miracle run continue? We'll have to wait another week as they are idle this weekend. Notre Dame was idle last week but remains in the top ten. 

Boise State should have gained more than 1.1% in Playoff Odds this week, doesn't it seem? Especially in a week where their toughest Mountain West foe (UNLV) lost to Syracuse and another rival for the 5th auto-bid (James Madison) was upset. But though both teams shed double-digits in Playoff Odds they each slipped only 3 spots. There just aren't that many candidates for the 5th spot. 2-loss Tulane even jumped back into consideration, beating UAB 71-20.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 12  14. Boise St            *MWC    4-1  10-2  10.0- 2.0    46.6   +1.1  >99.9    0.0
 15  15. Kansas St            B12    4-1  10-2   8.9- 3.1    31.8   +0.4   98.3   -0.2
 18  16. Clemson              ACC    4-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    27.5   +2.2   99.3   +0.8
 29  17. Texas A&M            SEC    5-1   9-3   8.8- 3.2    21.4  +15.7  >99.9   +3.5
 20  18. Washington St        P12    4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    12.9   +2.2  >99.9   +0.1
 16  19. UNLV                 MWC    4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    27.7  -10.5   99.9    0.0
 24  20. Tulane              *AAc    4-2  10-2   9.1- 2.9    16.3   +9.6   99.9   +0.8
 27  21. SMU                  ACC    5-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    15.7   +8.2   99.6   +5.1
 19  22. James Madison       *SUNe   4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    13.2  -11.0  >99.9    0.0
 32  23. Texas Tech           B12    5-1  10-2   8.6- 3.4     9.1   +2.4   98.6   +8.3
 26  24. LSU                  SEC    4-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5    13.7   +2.8   88.4   -1.1
 17  25. Southern Cal         B10    3-2   9-3   7.5- 4.5     9.9  -23.9   88.3   -6.1

Four new teams joined the projected Final Committee Top 25, with Texas A&M back in the mix after crushing Missouri 41-10. LSU snuck back in, making it 7 SEC teams in the top 25. SMU beat Louisville and took over as the #3 ACC contender (#2 is Clemson, who has been steadily moving up since their opening loss to Georgia). And Texas Tech beat Arizona to become a contender in the Big Twelve, though Kansas State is much closer to the top two than the Red Raiders. Note that Tech's only loss is to Washington State, still hanging around after their loss to Boise, hoping to slip in the top twelve somehow. Meanwhile USC took a dive with their 2nd loss, shedding around 24% and now under 10% Playoff Odds at 3-2.

Oklahoma is just outside the top 25 and a win over Texas this weekend would be just what the doctor ordered for the Sooners. Army and Navy remained on a collision course with big wins (combined 83-14), the only question is whether they will play for the AAC title before their regular season game on December 14th. Four teams dropped out of the Top 25: Louisville (2nd loss, to SMU); Utah (idle; Oklahoma State's loss hurt them); Missouri (lost 41-10, and they were on the decline from their pre-season projection anyway); and Michigan (2nd loss, to Washington, puts last year's national champs at 1.1% Playoff Odds).

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 28  26. Oklahoma             SEC    4-1   7-5   7.4- 4.6     9.8   +2.3   91.9   +3.1
 39  27. Army                 AAc    5-0  10-2   9.9- 2.1     7.8   +4.6  >99.9   +1.2
 45  29. Navy                 AAc    5-0  10-2   9.1- 2.9     7.4   +3.8   99.6   +3.1
 21  30. Louisville           ACC    3-2   8-4   7.2- 4.8     7.6  -12.4   84.4   -7.7
 25  32. Utah                 B12    4-1   9-3   7.6- 4.4     8.7   -6.0   89.6   -2.5
 50  33. Virginia Tech        ACC    3-3   8-4   7.1- 4.9     2.5   +1.7   86.9  +15.8
 22  37. Missouri             SEC    4-1   8-4   7.6- 4.4     2.9  -12.0   94.1   -3.3
 67  40. Arkansas             SEC    4-2   6-6   7.1- 4.9     1.8   +1.3   90.2  +29.4
 56  41. Pittsburgh           ACC    5-0   8-4   7.9- 4.1     4.5   +2.5   94.4  +12.9
 43  42. Sam Houston St      *CUSA   5-1  11-1   9.2- 2.8     1.0   -0.6   99.7   +1.9
 34  43. Liberty              CUSA   4-0  10-1   8.9- 2.1     1.9   -1.9   98.5   -0.5
 23  45. Michigan             B10    4-2   7-5   6.7- 5.3     1.1   -9.1   82.7   -8.0

We all know what Arkansas did to jump from #67 to #40, up almost 30% in bowl odds: upset Tennessee. But Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh of the ACC had big moves, too. The Hokies beat Stanford 31-7 and the Panthers won at North Carolina 34-24. All three now look like solid bowl teams, whereas last week they were all a lot more marginal. And we have a changing of the guard in the C-USA with 5-1 Sam Houston State looking slightly better than 4-0 Liberty, who hasn't played a strong game yet (the Flames played Tuesday night and needed overtime to edge FAU).

Two more of last week's upset hopefuls appear below. California didn't get the big one but still added to their bowl odds for their strong performance. Vanderbilt did get the big one and may have saved their bowl hopes with it; they're now almost 50/50, needing 3 wins on a tough slate to get it. They just beat Alabama so should that be so hard?

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 47  46. California           ACC    3-2   8-4   7.5- 4.5     1.4   -1.3   90.1   +3.5
 51  48. Nebraska             B10    5-1   7-5   7.3- 4.7     1.0   -0.5   94.5  +11.1
 52  49. Toledo              *MAC    4-1   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.6    0.0   97.4   +4.2
 68  51. Syracuse             ACC    4-1   6-6   7.1- 4.9     1.7   +0.7   82.0  +21.1
 58  52. Arizona St           B12    4-1   5-7   6.9- 5.1     2.3   -0.5   79.4  +15.3
 73  59. Virginia             ACC    4-1   5-7   6.5- 5.5     1.2   +0.5   72.4  +19.6
 75  62. Washington           B10    4-2   5-7   6.0- 6.0     0.3    0.0   62.7  +20.9
 95  65. Vanderbilt           SEC    3-2   4-8   5.6- 6.4     0.4   +0.4   48.2  +33.1

The other teams above all have solid bowl hopes. Nebraska is almost a lock at 5-1, while fellow Big Ten team Washington was touch-and-go before upsetting Michigan. In the ACC Syracuse's win over UNLV puts them in very good shape and Virginia gains nearly 20% after beating Boston College. Arizona State is 4-1 after topping Kansas. And Toledo is 4-1 and the favorite to win the MAC, which ranks last among the conferences and won't be in the Playoff conversation.

Three Big Twelve teams saw their fortunes take a dive last week. First, Oklahoma State fell from over 75% bowl odds to under 50%—down 34.1%—after their 38-14 loss to West Virginia, who gained almost as much themselves. TCU is underwater at 41.4% after an embarrassing loss at home, 30-19, to 2-4 Houston, while Central Florida is still above 50% after losing at Florida. The Gators kept their bowl hopes (22.7%) alive with the win.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 36  67. Central Florida      B12    3-2   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.6   -6.5   56.5  -21.9
 86  68. West Virginia        B12    3-2   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.8   +0.6   56.4  +29.8
 88  69. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   4-1   5-7   7.2- 4.8     0.2   +0.1   87.0  +29.3
 72  73. Georgia Tech         ACC    4-2   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.1   -0.2   66.3  +11.5
 90  76. Minnesota            B10    3-3   4-8   5.5- 6.5    <0.1    0.0   48.7  +21.1
 44  79. Oklahoma St          B12    3-3   4-8   5.4- 6.6     0.1   -3.1   45.0  -34.1
 57  84. TCU                  B12    3-3   4-8   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   -1.0   41.4  -29.3
 97  87. Florida              SEC    3-2   4-8   4.6- 7.4    <0.1    0.0   22.7  +10.1

UL-Monroe upset James Madison and that puts the Warhawks in great shape for a bowl game. Georgia Tech is looking pretty good, too, after handing Duke their first loss of the season. Minnesota's upset of USC puts them at around 50/50 for a bowl game, and a very meager <0.1% to make the Playoff at 3 losses.

Most of the teams below were low and fell further, with Jacksonville State one of the exceptions. The Gamecocks beat Kennesaw 63-24 and now look to finish at 6-6. Charlotte is the other team jumping from triple digits ranking to double; they beat East Carolina 55-24, knocking the Pirates down to near 50/50.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
100  88. Jacksonville St      CUSA   2-3   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   61.8  +22.3
 84  91. South Alabama        SUNw   2-4   6-6   5.3- 6.7     0.0   -0.1   44.6  -14.8
 80  93. North Carolina St    ACC    3-3   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.0   -0.1   35.1  -21.5
 71  95. East Carolina        AAc    3-3   6-6   5.7- 6.3     0.0   -0.1   56.0  -27.5
112  97. UNC-Charlotte        AAc    3-3   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   36.2  +19.9
 85  98. Stanford             ACC    2-3   3-9   4.2- 7.8     0.0   -0.1   18.0  -16.9
 99 111. Hawai`i              MWC    2-3   5-7   4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.1    6.6  -11.3
114 124. Tulsa                AAc    2-4   2-10  3.6- 8.4     0.0    0.0    8.3  -12.5

But the rest of the lower ranks just got worse. South Alabama fell to Arkansas State 18-16 in an upset, enough to endanger their bowl plans. Two ACC teams, NC State and Stanford, suffered losses to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, respectively, and were heavily downgraded as a result. Tulsa had only 20% odds and lost the majority of that by losing to Army by 42. And Hawaii fell to San Diego State, a game they really needed for their bowl hopes. Now 2-3, with wins over two FCS schools, the Warriors need to win 5 of their last 7 to go 7-5 to reach a bowl game. With Washington State, Boise State, and UNLV among them, you can see why their odds are just 6.6%.

2024 week 6 preview: No good games!

There are pretty much no good games this weekend. You know what that means—there is going to be a rash of crazy upsets. Last week was by the book, this weekend is going to be chaos.

Here are my picks for a wild and crazy weekend:

Iowa over Ohio State (-18.5)    (nope)

Arkansas over Tennessee (-14)    UPSET!

Washington over Michigan (+1.5)    UPSET (?)

South Carolina over Ole Miss (-9)    (nope)

Air Force over Navy (-10)    (nope)

Looks like Washington is favored to beat Michigan (makes sense, they're close in my power rating and playing at Wash) so I'll add:

Baylor over Iowa State (-11)    (nope)

Let's see how many of these happen.

Sunday post-mortem:

Welp, almost none of those happened. Two of six isn't that bad when trying to pick big upsets but I missed the big one, Alabama's loss to Vandy, which I didn't even consider a possibility. Should have, due to the "letdown game" theory.

I did pick two top ten teams to lose (which counts oddsmakers underdog Michigan). Missouri lost too, but that was an intra-top 25 game—the only one on the schedule—so it didn't seem eligible to be called an upset either.

Miami very nearly became the 5th top ten team to lose but rallied to beat Cal. I'm telling you, this Miami team is the opposite of snakebit and might be on their way to a miracle season.

Funny, I predicted a chaotic week and I see people calling it a crazy week full of upsets, but it doesn't feel like it. Other than Alabama the upsets weren't that big. Tennessee losing is a big deal but not that huge. Missouri and Michigan are pretty minor despite being in the top ten.

But I'll take it, even if I got the specifics wrong it probably counts as a weekend of chaos.

2024 post-week 5 report: No Playoff change despite big SEC games

The biggest game of the year so far was a wild one but in the end it was just about what we expected so there isn't much fallout from Alabama's crazy 41-34 win. Ole Miss lost but they're still in (for now). Not much happened except for some shuffling around and adjusting odds for the Projected Top 25 and projected 12-team Playoff.

Alabama did gain quite a bit in Playoff Odds, a bit surprising but now they're well above 90%! I didn't expect to see that until they were 6-0 at least. Georgia's odds dropped just 2% and they're still over 50%. They even moved up a spot thanks to Kentucky's upset of Mississippi, the real loser for the week down 23.7% but still the last at-large selection—if the SEC can really get 5 teams in. Tennessee (up almost 10% despite not playing) and Texas (down a bit after a tepid win over Mississippi State) are clearly ahead of Ole Miss at this point if the conference has "only" 4 bids.

Ohio State is still the standard bearer for the Big Ten's teams, and the Buckeyes are at #2 after trouncing Michigan State 38-7. Oregon beat UCLA 34-13 and stayed at #5, while Penn State struggled early with Illinois before beating the Illini 21-7. The Lions a bit of ground in playoff odds while the Ducks gained. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  1   1. Alabama             *SEC    4-0  11-1  10.9- 1.1    93.3  +10.7  >99.9    0.0
  3   2. Ohio State          *B10    4-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    83.3   +5.9  >99.9    0.0
  4   3. Tennessee            SEC    4-0  11-1  10.7- 1.3    82.9   +9.5  >99.9    0.0
  2   4. Texas                SEC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    82.7   -0.2  >99.9    0.0
  5   5. Oregon               B10    4-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    73.9   +3.6   99.9   +0.3
  6   6. Miami FL            *ACC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    66.6   +1.8  >99.9    0.0
  8   7. Georgia              SEC    3-1   9-3   9.2- 2.8    55.2   -2.0   99.9   +0.1
  9   8. Notre Dame           Ind    4-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2    55.9   +3.0   99.9   +0.3
 11   9. Iowa St             *B12    4-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    49.3   +6.4   99.2   +1.9
 10  10. Penn State           B10    4-0  10-2   9.7- 2.3    43.9   -4.5   99.4   +0.4
  7  11. Mississippi          SEC    4-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    40.0  -23.7   99.3   -0.5
 16  12. Boise St            *MWC    3-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2    45.5  +14.0   99.9   +1.3

Outside of the SEC and Big Ten, Miami's miracle finish kept them firmly in the race and the Hurricanes now have a 2 in 3 chance to make the 12-team field. Notre Dame got a solid win over Louisville (31-24) and has playoff odds similar to Georgia's. Iowa State remained the favorite in the parity-plagued Big Twelve with a shutout of Houston.

Boise State won the game that I called the "impact" game of the week and gained 14% in Playoff Odds, enough to put them in the top 12 (no more charity for the Mountain West). Boise beat Washington State 45-24 but the Cougars remain in the hunt—at least for a top 25 finish. Their Playoff odds were roughly cut in half as expected as they have no conference championship game, unlike James Madison who soared to #19 after beating Ball State 63-7. But they're less of a threat to Boise and fellow Mountain West team UNLV, who lost their quarterback to a NIL dispute but still thrashed Fresno State 59-14. The Rebels jumped into the top 25 at #16 and the Boise-UNLV combo is going to make it hard for any other conference champ to nab that 5th conference playoff auto-bid. Tulane, for example, just entered the conversation but has single-digit playoff odds because their 2 losses already drag them down, meaning the American is unlikely to have a Playoff team this year.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 23  13. Brigham Young        B12    5-0  10-2   9.6- 2.4    37.2  +18.3   99.6   +4.6
 19  14. Indiana              B10    5-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    32.8  +14.0   99.9   +1.2
 21  15. Kansas St            B12    4-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0    31.4  +12.3   98.5   +4.5
 26  16. UNLV                 MWC    4-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    38.2  +19.7  >99.9   +3.2
 13  17. Southern Cal         B10    3-1  10-2   8.5- 3.5    33.8   +3.7   94.4   +2.7
 15  18. Clemson              ACC    3-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    25.3   +1.7   98.5   +2.5
 25  19. James Madison       *SUNe   4-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    24.2  +11.0   99.9   +0.9
 14  20. Washington St        P12    4-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    10.7   -8.2   99.8   -0.1
 17  21. Louisville           ACC    3-1   9-3   8.1- 3.9    20.0   -6.6   92.1   +0.4
 20  22. Missouri             SEC    4-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    14.9   -1.1   97.4   -0.4
 22  23. Michigan             B10    4-1   8-4   7.4- 4.6    10.2   -4.8   90.7   +2.3
 33  24. Tulane              *AAc    3-2  10-2   8.8- 3.2     6.7   +2.4   99.1   +4.7
 12  25. Utah                 B12    4-1   9-3   8.0- 4.0    14.7  -22.5   92.1   -5.2

The Big Twelve is pretty wide open, and BYU and Kansas State made big gains last weekend. The Cougars held off Baylor while the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State 42-20, a result that also helped BYU since the Cougars have a 38-9 win over the Wildcats. Utah went the other direction after losing at home to Arizona, shedding 22.5% and falling to #25. Indiana beat Maryland and is now officially the "it" team in the Big Ten (Illinois and Nebraska having fallen off). They're even projected ahead of USC now, and Michigan can barely hold a lead so they lost ground.

LSU is outside the top 25 but has double-digit playoff odds due to the opportunity their schedule affords them. Meanwhile Oklahoma had a decent week topping Auburn while Kentucky's 20-17 win at Ole Miss made their bowl bid a near-certainty (up 31.4%). Two Big Twelve teams fell out of the top 25: Oklahoma State after taking their 2nd loss to Kansas State, and Central Florida after being upset BIG by Colorado. Arizona's win over Utah revitalized their chances but a prior 31-7 loss to K-State will hold them back for a while until we see whether the burgeoning pecking order holds or not. And add SMU to the title threats in the ACC after their 42-16 win over FSU. They're still behind Miami, Clemson, and Louisville but their only loss is to undefeated BYU.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 28  26. LSU                  SEC    4-1   8-4   7.6- 4.4    10.9   +1.6   89.5   +6.1
 40  27. SMU                  ACC    4-1  10-2   8.2- 3.8     7.5   +2.8   94.5  +10.9
 36  28. Oklahoma             SEC    4-1   6-6   7.2- 4.8     7.5   +1.9   88.8  +11.2
 48  33. Arizona              B12    3-1   8-4   7.7- 4.3     8.7   +4.4   87.5  +15.5
 31  34. Liberty             *CUSA   4-0  10-1   9.2- 1.8     3.8   -3.8   99.0   -0.3
 30  35. Memphis              AAc    4-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0     2.9   -4.0   99.2   +0.3
 18  36. Central Florida      B12    3-1  10-2   7.1- 4.9     7.1  -18.2   78.4  -16.1
 69  41. Kentucky             SEC    3-2   7-5   6.8- 5.2     1.0   +0.7   85.1  +31.4
 24  44. Oklahoma St          B12    3-2   9-3   6.9- 5.1     3.2  -10.1   79.1   -8.8

Liberty had the strangest result, losing half their Playoff odds (down 3.8% to 3.8%) due to their game with Appalachian State being cancelled. Liberty's schedule is perhaps the easiest in the country and playing only 11 games won't help them gain traction even as an undefeated C-USA champ. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 49  39. Army                 AAc    4-0   9-3   9.1- 2.9     3.2   +1.2   98.7   +6.1
 58  45. Navy                 AAc    4-0   8-4   8.5- 3.5     3.6   +1.7   96.5  +10.8

Above, see Army and Navy, both undefeated after 4 games. What happens in the 12-team era if both go undefeated and meet in the American conference championship game? Well, it's a bit weird. Yes, they would play for the AAC title, both holding 11-0 records each with a win over Notre Dame. So the winner would have a good chance of making the Playoff. But then they'd play again on December 14 for the annual Army-Navy game. Just imagine Army winning the AAC title in 4 overtimes and becoming the 5th conference auto-bid for the Playoff. Then they meet Navy in December and lose 56-0. Then they go on a crazy Playoff run and win the national championship—while 12-1 Navy holds a devastating win over them. Not very likely but due to the weird scheduling here, we could realistically see a Playoff team lose BEFORE the Playoff even starts!

In the section below, a whole mess of teams improved their bowl odds, and no one more than Colorado who beat UCF 48-21. The Buffaloes were around 40% in bowl odds but are now above 75%. And look at UConn, suddenly a good team at 3-2 after crushing a good Buffalo team 47-3.  

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 82  48. Colorado             B12    4-1   5-7   6.9- 5.1     2.6   +2.1   77.4  +36.7
 65  54. Louisiana-Lafayette  SUNw   3-1   9-3   8.2- 3.8     1.3   +0.3   93.8  +12.9
 77  55. Connecticut          Ind    3-2   9-3   8.1- 3.9     0.0    0.0   95.9  +19.8
 61  57. TCU                  B12    3-2   6-6   6.5- 5.5     1.1   -0.1   70.7  +12.3
 60  59. Duke                 ACC    5-0   6-6   7.7- 4.3     0.8   -0.1   92.3  +12.3
 70  60. North Texas          AAc    4-1   9-3   7.8- 4.2     0.7   +0.3   92.1  +12.6
 81  70. Georgia Southern     SUNe   3-2   6-6   6.8- 5.2     0.1   -0.1   77.7  +17.6
 83  78. Ohio U.              MAC    3-2   8-4   7.2- 4.8     0.0   -0.1   86.0  +14.0
105  87. Old Dominion         SUNe   1-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0    <0.1    0.0   40.6  +16.2
103  88. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   3-1   4-8   6.0- 6.0    <0.1    0.0   57.7  +20.4
 95  89. Florida Int'l        CUSA   2-3   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0   -0.1   63.9  +13.4

Below, the opposite: Teams that are flailing and seeing their seasons start to fall apart. Auburn's loss to Oklahoma left them searching for future SEC wins, while Kansas has the same problem in the Big Twelve after falling to TCU for a 1-4 start. And speaking of 1-4 starts, Florida State has only a 7.4% chance at a bowl game—half of Wake Forest's odds, incredibly. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 84  93. Auburn               SEC    2-3   4-8   4.5- 7.5     0.0   -0.1   22.4  -14.5
 87  94. Kansas               B12    1-4   3-9   3.7- 8.3    <0.1   -0.1   13.8  -19.6
 92 101. Florida St           ACC    1-4   4-8   3.7- 8.3     0.0   -0.1    7.4  -12.2
 93 103. Wake Forest          ACC    1-3   2-10  3.6- 8.4     0.0   -0.1   14.7  -16.7
 99 106. Georgia St           SUNe   2-2   2-10  4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.1   24.7  -16.4
109 109. Appalachian St       SUNe   2-2   3-8   3.7- 7.3     0.0   -0.1   11.8  -17.3
100 113. Troy                 SUNw   1-4   2-10  3.7- 8.3     0.0    0.0   14.4  -20.6
111 114. Tulsa                AAc    2-3   2-10  4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0   20.8  -16.3
113 115. San Diego St         MWC    1-3   3-9   3.8- 8.2     0.0   -0.1   14.2  -14.2
114 118. Alabama-Birmingham   AAc    1-3   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   10.7  -13.8
116 124. Air Force            MWC    1-3   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0    0.0   11.5  -12.1
117 127. New Mexico St        CUSA   1-4   2-10  3.0- 9.0     0.0    0.0    5.5  -16.3
134 134. Kent St              MAC    0-5   0-12  1.2-10.8     0.0    0.0   <0.1   -0.5

And Kent State's 0-5 start gives them a less than 0.1% chance to make a bowl game. Their schedule gets a lot easier but they have to go 6-1 or 7-0.

Week 5 Preview: Alabama - Georgia is the big game, but Washington State vs. Boise may be more impactful

Washington State vs. Boise State is the more important game in terms of who makes the Playoff. Hear me out.

Alabama vs. Georgia is bigger for determining the pecking order within the Playoff, but both the winner and loser will still be favored to make the Playoff and will have every opportunity to recover from any damage. 

You might not be thinking either the Cougars or the Broncos are very much in the running—after all, Washington State has no real conference and Boise State has a loss already. But you'd be wrong: the Broncos are currently projected to make the Playoff as the 5th-ranked conference champ, while the Cougars are #14 in our Top 25 projection which places them only a few spots away.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 12  13. Southern Cal         B10    2-1  10-2   8.3- 3.7    30.1   -7.6   91.7   +0.1
 15  14. Washington St        P12    4-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    18.9   -1.9   99.9   +0.8
 18  15. Clemson              ACC    2-1  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.6   +2.2   96.0   +3.3
 17  16. Boise St            *MWC    2-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    31.5   +2.3   98.6   +1.5
 22  17. Louisville           ACC    3-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6    26.6   +3.6   91.7   +2.7

Both have a tough path ahead, though. Boise State not only has to win their conference, but rank ahead of any other non-power conference champs for that 5th spot. Right now that's looking good but James Madison, Memphis, or Liberty might jump ahead if they slip. And UNLV is looking like big competition in the MWC.

So the Broncos can't afford another loss or their road gets much tougher—probably too tough. This might be an elimination game for them.

Likewise for Washington State, but even more so. The Cougars are ranked so high not necessarily because they're so good, but because their easy schedule gives them an opportunity to go undefeated and slip in the Playoff without a conference championship. A loss to Boise—or any loss—crushes their odds.

So while Alabama vs. Georgia is the biggest game, this one is the only near-elimination game among teams that have a solid, realistic chance at a Playoff spot. 

Notre Dame (#9) plays #17 Louisville in what is probably an elimination game for the 2-1 Irish, though not for the 3-0 Cardinals. #21 Kansas State (3-1) faces #24 Oklahoma State (3-1) and the loser there is in trouble, but since both are power conference teams even the loser has a chance to play their way back in. At this point in the season elimination games are few and far between with the new 12-team format.

Boise State vs. Washington State comes about as close as one can to a real Playoff eliminator in week 5.

Week 4 Update: K-State out; Iowa State, Utah in line for Big Twelve bid

Finally a few upsets (last week was about all chalk) and our projected Playoff lineup changed a bit. Namely, Iowa State moved in to replace Kansas State who lost big. Big moves from Tennessee and Miami who were already in. Here's my week 4 recap.

We have a new top seed, Alabama! Check back next week after they've played Georgia, but based on the action so far, the home team looks like they should be the favorite. The Tide didn't even play last weekend while former #1 Texas crushed ULM 51-3. The Longhorns still have the best Playoff odds, now almost 83% but Alabama projects ahead on average, very slightly. The rest of the SEC Playoff squad did well, especially Tennessee who beat Oklahoma on the road and gained over 19% to jump to #4—but still only #3 in-conference. Ole Miss took care of Georgia Southern 52-13 which barely budged their odds, but they did pass Georgia who was idle and still lost ground—probably because future opponents Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are all looking so good? Again, this weekend's game at Tuscaloosa will shake things up one way or another.

                                      Projected Record            Odds (9/22/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  2   1. Alabama             *SEC    3-0  12-0  10.5- 1.5    82.6   +6.3  >99.9   +0.1
  1   2. Texas                SEC    4-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    82.9   +6.4  >99.9    0.0
  3   3. Ohio State          *B10    3-0  12-0  10.5- 1.5    77.4   +2.9   99.9   +0.2
  7   4. Tennessee            SEC    4-0  10-2  10.6- 1.4    73.4  +19.1  >99.9   +0.1
  4   5. Oregon               B10    3-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    70.3   +1.5   99.6   -0.1
 11   6. Miami FL            *ACC    4-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    64.8  +20.8   99.9   +1.2
  6   7. Mississippi          SEC    4-0  12-0  10.3- 1.7    63.7   +3.0   99.8   +0.1
  5   8. Georgia              SEC    3-0   9-3   9.4- 2.6    57.2   -3.6   99.8    0.0
  8   9. Notre Dame           Ind    3-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.9    0.0   99.6   -0.1
 10  10. Penn State           B10    3-0  10-2   9.7- 2.3    48.4   +2.6   99.0   +0.6
 14  11. Iowa St             *B12    3-0  11-1   9.5- 2.5    42.9  +12.0   97.3   +4.4

The Big Ten was less interesting. Ohio State posted a solid 49-14 win over Marshall, and Penn State beat punching bag Kent State 56-0 (the Flashes lost to Tennessee 71-0). Both held their spots while idle Oregon fell to #5. 

Miami, on the other hand, used a fantastic 2nd half to crush USF 50-15 (Alabama beat USF 42-16, also on late scoring) and jumped to #6 gaining over 20% in Playoff odds as the Canes distanced themselves from their ACC peers—for now. Independent Notre Dame held steady after a not-so-spectacular 28-3 win over Miami of Ohio. 

And Iowa State moved into a Playoff spot after beating Arkansas State 52-7. Compare that to Michigan's 28-18 win over the same Red Wolves and you see why the Cyclones are ranked 1st in the Big Twelve. Especially after Michigan upset USC and moved back into the projected Top 25 (surprisingly USC was hardly affected, dropping 7% and one spot). Of course, it was Kansas State's huge 31-7 loss to BYU cleared the path for the Cyclones, as well as Utah who is right behind, and UCF who is also in the mix. Utah beat Oklahoma State, who held on at #24. Kansas State lost almost 30% but remained ahead of BYU who jumped from #47 to #23, up 14% in Playoff Odds. Yes, there is a lot of Big Twelve just outside the Playoff zone.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 13  12. Utah                 B12    4-0  11-1   9.3- 2.7    37.2   +6.1   97.3   +4.5
 12  13. Southern Cal         B10    2-1  10-2   8.3- 3.7    30.1   -7.6   91.7   +0.1
 15  14. Washington St        P12    4-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    18.9   -1.9   99.9   +0.8
 18  15. Clemson              ACC    2-1  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.6   +2.2   96.0   +3.3
 17  16. Boise St            *MWC    2-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    31.5   +2.3   98.6   +1.5
 22  17. Louisville           ACC    3-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6    26.6   +3.6   91.7   +2.7
 21  18. Central Florida      B12    3-0  11-1   8.9- 3.1    25.3   +4.8   94.5   +1.9
 23  19. Indiana              B10    4-0  11-1   9.3- 2.7    18.8   +6.2   98.7   +3.7
 16  20. Missouri             SEC    4-0   9-3   8.6- 3.4    16.0   -6.8   97.8   +2.0
  9  21. Kansas St            B12    3-1  10-2   8.5- 3.5    19.1  -27.9   94.0   -3.8
 28  22. Michigan             B10    3-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5    15.0   +4.0   88.4  +10.6
 47  23. Brigham Young        B12    4-0   9-3   8.7- 3.3    18.9  +14.0   95.0  +22.9
 19  24. Oklahoma St          B12    3-1  10-2   7.8- 4.2    13.3  -11.7   87.9   -3.0
 41  25. James Madison       *SUNe   3-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    13.2   +6.4   99.0   +8.0

The ACC is represented here too with a resurgent Clemson and still undefeated Louisville, but it's Boise State that makes the current field as projected Mountain West champ. That puts them ahead of Washington State, who can't win a conference championship regardless of how many teams the Pac-12 adds for next season; Indiana, no matter how impressive the Hoosiers have been; and Missouri, who is seemingly fading out of the SEC race just as conference games begin (they beat Vandy in overtime last weekend). The Broncos play Washington State this weekend, a huge one for both of their Playoff hopes, as a 2nd loss for Boise puts them in grave danger while a single loss might strike the Cougars from consideration given their easy slate (and no conf. championship game).

The best competition for Boise State's 5th auto-bid spot might now be James Madison, who powered their way into the top 25 by crushing North Carolina 70-50. Other candidates just outside the Top 25 include UNLV, who could win the MWC themselves and have almost a 20% Playoff odds by our reckoning; Texas State, who would have to beat James Madison to win the Sun Belt; Memphis, who got their odds rocked by a loss at Navy; and Liberty, who should go 12-0 but hasn't looked good so far. Then there's Bowling Green, our favorite in the MAC despite a 1-2 start that includes 7-point losses at Penn State and Texas A&M (a win that dragged the Aggies out of the top 25!). Previous MAC favorite Northern Illinois lost in overtime to Buffalo.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 26  26. UNLV                 MWC    3-0  10-2   9.3- 2.7    18.5   +3.8   96.7   +1.0
 24  27. Texas A&M            SEC    3-1  10-2   7.9- 4.1    10.1   -4.3   91.5   +2.4
 31  29. Texas St-San Marcos  SUNw   2-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    11.0   +3.2   96.3   +1.6
 20  30. Memphis             *AAc    3-1  10-2   9.2- 2.8     6.9  -13.1   98.9   -0.7
 30  31. Liberty             *CUSA   4-0  12-0  10.0- 2.0     7.6   -2.0   99.3   +1.3
 42  32. Iowa                 B10    3-1   9-3   7.9- 4.1     5.2   +1.5   90.5  +11.9
 54  35. Rutgers              B10    3-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9     7.8   +3.4   88.2  +17.0
 25  36. Oklahoma             SEC    3-1   6-6   6.8- 5.2     5.6   -9.3   77.6   -4.3
 46  38. Bowling Green       *MAC    1-2  10-2   8.1- 3.9     2.9   -0.5   93.4   +7.7
 57  39. Illinois             B10    4-0   8-4   7.7- 4.3     4.9   +2.7   90.5  +17.8
 59  40. SMU                  ACC    3-1  10-2   7.5- 4.5     4.7   +2.9   83.6  +19.9
 27  42. California           ACC    3-1   9-3   7.7- 4.3     4.5   -8.2   87.4   -3.3
 29  43. Northern Illinois    MAC    2-1   8-4   8.0- 4.0     3.7   -5.6   90.7   -3.0

Oklahoma fell out of the top 25 with the loss to Tennessee, while Big Ten teams Iowa, Rutgers, and Illinois made big jumps in Bowl odds if not Playoff odds. SMU also jumped by beating TCU 66-42, but California sank with a loss to struggling FSU. 

Now we focus on teams that improved (or hurt) their bowl eligibility odds. Virginia Tech lost to Rutgers and fell double digits, as did fellow ACC teams Syracuse and North Carolina, though all three are still well above 50%. Duke went the opposite direction with a 45-17 win over MTSU and now has a 4 in 5 chance of post-season play.  

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 35  50. Virginia Tech        ACC    2-2   8-4   6.4- 5.6     1.9   -4.7   68.7  -10.6
 33  52. Nebraska             B10    3-1   7-5   6.7- 5.3     1.7   -5.7   74.7  -10.7
 67  55. Arkansas             SEC    3-1   5-7   6.4- 5.6     2.2   +0.7   68.5  +19.9
 85  58. Navy                 AAc    3-0   7-5   7.6- 4.4     1.9   +1.5   85.7  +26.2
 70  60. Duke                 ACC    4-0   6-6   7.2- 4.8     0.9    0.0   80.0  +10.9
 39  61. TCU                  B12    2-2   7-5   6.0- 6.0     1.2   -5.3   58.4  -16.9
 78  62. Cincinnati           B12    3-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     1.5   +0.8   62.8  +18.3
 72  63. Western Kentucky     CUSA   3-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5     0.5    0.0   87.9  +11.2
 48  64. Syracuse             ACC    2-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     1.4   -3.7   61.7  -12.7
 36  66. North Carolina       ACC    3-1   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.6   -5.6   69.9  -15.9
 83  67. Buffalo              MAC    3-1   7-5   7.6- 4.4     0.2   +0.1   86.1  +19.3

Nebraska was looking like a breakout team before losing to Illinois in overtime; their Playoff odds plummeted but they still have a 75% chance to make a bowl game. Navy's solid win over a highly-rated Memphis team boosted the Midshipmen's bowl odds by over 25%. TCU and Cincy meet after opposite results, with the Bearcats blanking Houston 34-0. Western Kentucky upset Toledo, while Buffalo beat NIU and has a shot at the MAC title; the Bulls only loss is to Missouri.

Arkansas topped Auburn sending the Tigers reeling (-23.5% bowl odds) and the Razorbacks soaring (+19.9%). The biggest move percentagewise was UConn who beat Florida Atlantic 48-14 and jumped from under 50% odds to over 75%. The Owls dropped from over 60% to around 40%. Beating Coastal Carolina soundly was enough to boost Virginia almost 20%, likewise North Texas clobbered lowly Wyoming and jumped to nearly 80% odds. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 87  70. North Texas          AAc    3-1   8-4   7.2- 4.8     0.4   +0.3   79.5  +19.5
 90  73. Virginia             ACC    3-1   4-8   5.7- 6.3     0.6   +0.4   51.1  +19.4
 84  76. Eastern Michigan     MAC    3-1   7-5   7.3- 4.7     0.1    0.0   80.9  +13.0
103  77. Connecticut          Ind    2-2   7-5   6.8- 5.2     0.0    0.0   76.1  +29.0
 58  84. Auburn               SEC    2-2   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -1.1   36.9  -23.5
 94  85. Stanford             ACC    2-1   3-9   5.1- 6.9     0.4   +0.1   39.9  +11.8
 68  87. Kansas               B12    1-3   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.2   -1.1   33.4  -16.0
107  89. South Alabama        SUNw   2-2   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.1    0.0   60.3  +26.6
 77  91. Minnesota            B10    2-2   2-10  4.6- 7.4     0.1   -0.7   30.2  -13.5
 88 102. Florida Atlantic     AAc    1-3   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0   -0.1   40.5  -22.3
115 104. Jacksonville St      CUSA   1-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.0    0.0   39.4  +11.2
 75 109. Appalachian St       SUNe   2-2   4-8   4.5- 7.5    <0.1   -0.5   29.1  -33.0

South Alabama had another big weekend, and this one was worth more than their 87-10 win over FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars upset Appalachian State in a big way, 48-14, storming up 26.6% while App State dropped a whopping 33%. Power conference teams in this range will generally struggle to make a bowl due to their schedule, and this week Stanford was looking better while Kansas (lost to West Virginia) was hurting along with Minnesota (fell 31-14 at home to Iowa). 

The teams below didn't have much in the way of bowl odds to start with and they all got worse. The biggest drop was from Utah State who lost to lowly Temple 45-29 to go 1-3. In terms of percentage of their percentage, Southern Miss was roughly the biggest loser, dropping from 14% to 2.7% after a 44-7 loss to Jacksonville State, who themselves gained 11.2%

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
114 117. New Mexico St        CUSA   1-3   4-8   4.0- 8.0     0.0    0.0   21.8  -12.0
104 120. Utah St              MWC    1-3   3-9   3.6- 8.4     0.0   -0.1   13.7  -23.4
112 122. Wyoming              MWC    0-4   4-8   3.0- 9.0     0.0    0.0    6.8  -16.2
124 124. Ball St              MAC    1-2   2-10  3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   13.1  -10.4
122 128. Middle Tennessee St  CUSA   1-3   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   13.1  -13.2
123 129. Rice                 AAc    1-3   2-10  3.2- 8.8     0.0   -0.1    9.3  -13.5
130 132. Southern Miss        SUNw   1-3   1-11  2.4- 9.6     0.0    0.0    2.7  -11.3
133 133. Massachusetts        Ind    1-3   2-10  2.4- 9.6     0.0    0.0    0.3   -0.8
134 134. Kent St              MAC    0-4   0-12  1.5-10.5     0.0    0.0    0.6   -1.8

UMass almost beaat Central Connecticut, an FCS team, but that loss dropped them to 0.3% bowl odds. They'd have to go 5-3 from here, and even though we expect them to get another win, at 1-3 their odds are still lower than 0-4 Kent State's 0.6% odds, even though the Flashes don't have a chalk win on their slate and have to go 6-2 from here. As I noted before UMass has a killer schedule as an independent (everyone wanted to play them) while Kent State's MAC schedule is a breeze for the most part.