SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Predictions for Year-end 2022 (and review of 2021 picks)

One year ago we issued predictions for who would hold the SportsRatings belts in every MMA weight class at the end of the year. Well we've reached the end of the year and our picks were...mixed. Not bad, but mixed.

Interestingly we see that some sportsbooks are now offering odds for year-end UFC belt-holders. Where did they get that idea? Hmm. (I really have no idea, they might have done this before, but without knowing for sure, I'm taking credit for inspiring them)

Anyway here we go again, this time reviewing and grading our picks from a year ago before issuing new picks for the end-of-year.

Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic  WC: #18 Ciryl Gane

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.22	10-2-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #3 Ciryl Gane
2	2	Stipe Miocic	HW	65.10	15-4-0	UFC	#6 Derrick Lewis?
3	3	Ciryl Gane	HW	40.11	8-0-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #1 Francis Ngannou
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	32.85	18-3-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Philip De Fries	HW	30.91	13-6-0	KSW	?

Last Year's Grade: B+

Ok, so Jon Jones didn't happen but our logic was sound: he would only need to win once to get the title, as opposed to Ngannou or Miocic who would need to beat Jones after cementing the title. Instead, Ngannou got the run-around and Stipe was inactive and Jones never fought. But we had the right idea and picked Francis to win the first fight. And our long-shot pick for Gane came as close as it could...he even garnered an interim UFC title.

This year's picks: Possible HW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Francis Ngannou  2) Ciryl Gane  3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: We're not one of those who think Gane is a shoo-in despite our strong support for him last year. And if he beats Ngannou, he'll probably fight twice more this year while if Francis wins, there's a chance he won't fight again, which would mean he holds the SportsRatings belt the rest of 2022. So it's as much math as anything else in what seems like a 50/50 fight: if Francis wins he's champ for 2022, if Gane wins he will defend twice more...probably against Stipe for one. There's really no one else active that has a good shot at the top. Hell, Philip De Fries is #5, fighting in the HW wasteland at KSW.

Long-shot/wild card: Jon Jones. We think he counts here now, a full year after not showing up anywhere. Who knows if he ever fights again, let alone at heavyweight? We think he'll be back and that probably means he'll fight at HW, so he can't be counted out. But he's a long shot this time around.

Vegas thinks: Ngannou, Gane, Jones. So they clearly put more stock in Jones showing up that I do, and kind of counting out Stipe, too.

Light Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira  WC: #10 Jiri Pochazka

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	72.62	20-1-0	UFC	Heavyweight?
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	52.68	9-2-0	Bell	[Interim LH title holder] #5 Corey Anderson
3	3	Glover Teixeira	LH	51.76	26-6-0	UFC	#9 Jiri Prochazka
4	4	Jan Blachowicz	LH	44.43	22-7-0	UFC	#15 Alexander Rakic
5	5	Corey Anderson	LH	32.06	11-4-0	Bell	#2 Vadim Nemkov

Last Year's Grade: C+

Izzy didn't come through for us and Jan fell by the wayside, but putting Glover #3 sort of redeems us as we were among the few who believed he might have a chance. But even in terms of our own ratings he didn't finish with the interim belt: that stayed with Vadim Nemkov who held it at the end of last year! We didn't think there was any way the Bellator fighter would have enough points to stay ahead of all the possibilities from the UFC, but he did as the perfect storm hit.

This year's picks: Possible LH champs for Jan 2023: 1) Vadim Nemkov 2) Magomed Akalaev 3) Jiri Prochazka 

Analysis: This time we're sticking with Vadim...which means he probably gets upset by Corey Anderson. Even if that happens, Anderson is unlikely to stay on top points-wise, but Nemkov could with a win. We also think that the boring, relentless Ankalaev has more chance of going undefeated in 2023 than the flashy, reckless, fun-to-watch Prochazka but the latter can't be counted out. Glover probably loses before the year's out, and Jan probably doesn't work his way back to the top.

Long-shot/wild card: Paul Craig. No one's paying much attention to "BearJew" right now but he's the kind that could have a surprise run to the top like Jan Blachowicz. Currently #12 in our rankings.

Vegas thinks: Prochazka, Teixeira, Rakic. Our last year's wild card is this year's Vegas fave, but Glover's not far behind. Interesting.

Middleweight

Last year's picks: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya   WC: Khamzat Chimaev

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Robert Whittaker	MW	54.79	15-5-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
2	2	Israel Adesanya	MW	53.63	11-1-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #1 Robert Whittaker
3	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	52.39	39-7-2	Bell	•2/25 #32 Austin Vanderford
4	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	34.21	24-2-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	34.06	7-0-0	Bell	[retired]

Last Year's Grade: A-

Well...what can we say? We got it just about right, with help from statistical fluke that puts Whittaker ahead of Adesanya. Though Izzy beat Whittaker in 2020 he lost his light heavyweight title try and the win over Vettori wasn't quite enough to outpace Whittaker's three wins in a row. Ideally Whittaker would be just behind Izzy but we got the pick right...technically.

This year's picks: Possible MW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Robert Whittaker  3) Gegard Mousasi

Analysis: This is another division—like heavyweight—where there is a clear top three (#4 and #5 are long retired). And Adesanya beat Whittaker convincingly last time and should do it again. Mousasi can stay within striking distance but that's probably it as his Bellator division is depleted.

Long-shot/wild card: If it's anyone else he's going to have to come from the UFC. We're going with erstwhile journeyman Chris Curtis, who has made more progress in the last two months than anyone. Possessing a journeyman's 28-8 record Curtis has come out of nowhere with upsets of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen.

Vegas thinks: Adesanya, Whittaker, Brunson. Same as us except Brunson; remember, they're limited to UFC fighters.

Welterweight

Last year's picks: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns  WC: #25 Sean Brady

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	96.04	15-0-0	UFC	#3 Leon Edwards/ #4 Vicente Luque
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	37.17	13-4-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?
3	3	Leon Edwards	WW	35.67	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
4	4	Vicente Luque	WW	31.98	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
7	5	Belal Muhammad	WW	31.46	15-3-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?

Grade: A

We can't really fault ourselves for putting Khamzat #2, after all it was Covid that delayed his entry into the WW sweepstakes and he still made a lot of progress, up to #11 in our rankings after fighting once last year. And Usman on top was a solid if obvious pick. Burns finished next highest, too. And our Wild Card Sean Brady made a name for himself jumping from #25 to #9. That pick was more impressive than calling on Khamzat like everone else; Brady wasn't on many radars at this time last year.

This year's picks: Possible WW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Kamaru Usman  2) Khamzat Chimaev  3) Leon Edwards

Analysis: Pretty much an exact replay. But not much has changed: Usman is still the best fighter in the world, and Chimaev is still the fighter with the most upward potential. No one is beating Usman of the current suspects. Leon Edwards is most likely, probably, to finally get another crack next.

Long-shot/wild card: Shavkat Rakhmonov. Another hyped prospect, but less well-known than Chimaev, Rakhmonov is 14-0 and might get a big fight if he's impressive vs. Carlson Harris (our #51 WW currently).

Vegas thinks: Usman, Chamaev, Edwards. Ok, but we had it first, last year basically. We were ahead of our time.

Lightweight

Last year's picks:  1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier  WC: GSP

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	88.87	15-0-0	UFC	[retired]
3	2	Charles Oliveira	LW	64.26	23-8-0	UFC	[interim LW title holder]  #4 Justin Gaethje
2	3	Dustin Poirier	LW	41.88	23-7-0	UFC	???
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.79	17-3-0	UFC	#2 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Beneil Dariush	LW	38.54	16-4-1	UFC	•2/26 vs. #6 Islam Makhachev

Grade: B-

Ok, we failed hard here but in a way we were right: McGregor got two shots at the top basically. And that was our logic—if he won he'd hold the title hostage; lose, and he'd get another try. But we ended up with Oliveira close to the top, and Dustin too. We punted on the Wild Card pick with GSP and it shows. Wild, though!

This year's picks: Possible LW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Islam Makhachev  2) Charles Oliveira  3) Beneil Dariush

Analysis: Is Islam inevitable? Sure looks that way. Even with a solid champ in Oliveira and tough competitor in Dariush, Makhachev, currently at #6, is a level above those grapplers. Geathje is the odd man out in likelihood to beat two grapplers, and Dustin's odds are hurt by the high probability that he either retires or takes some time off.

Long-shot/wild card: Arman Tsarukyan. Currently #24 at 14-1, he might be the only guy who can possibly beat Makhachev on the ground. His only loss is to Makhachev, but no one else will out-grapple him as he tries to get to the top for a rematch.

Vegas thinks: Oliveira, Gaethje, Makhachev. All three very close.

Featherweight

Last year's picks: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire  WC: Emmanuel Sanchez

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	59.86	15-0-0	UFC	#5 Max Holloway
2	2	A.J. McKee	FW	48.22	12-0-0	Bell	#3 Patricio Freire
3	3	Patricio Freire	FW	36.88	19-5-0	Bell	#2 A.J. McKee
4	4	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	32.39	8-0-1	Prof	?
5	5	Max Holloway	FW	30.63	21-6-0	UFC	#1 Alexander Volkanovski

Last year's grade: B

Well, Zabit never re-emerged like we'd hoped and the Featherweight division ended up much the same as it started 2021, with Volkanovski on top, but AJ McKee bumped Patricio Freire from the top of Bellator. Zabit has fallen to #10 due to inactivity and we're not betting the house on his return. 

This year's picks: Possible FW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Alexander Volkanovski 2) A.J. McKee  3) Max Holloway 

Analysis: There are two camps, UFC and Bellator, and simple math indicates that the winners of the rematches will be #1 and #2. The big question is can Volk beat Max a 3rd time, and can McKee beat Freire a 2nd time? The probable answer to both of those is yes, and with Max far behind on points he's 3rd most likely to end up on top.

Long-shot/wild card: #22 Ilia Topuria. Undefeated, just 24, and in a big fight early against our #6 Movsar Evleov? That gives him a chance to make a big move quick. Is he ready? Probably not this fast, but that's what makes him a wild card. The winner of this fight has a chance to fight for the title soon, and Evleov is too high-ranked to be listed as a long shot.

Vegas thinks: Volanovski, Holloway, Brian Ortega. Since they're rating just the UFC, McKee and Freire aren't in the mix.

Bantamweight

Last year's picks:  1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo  WC: TJ Dillashaw

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	53.69	10-2-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Aljamain Sterling	BW	44.62	14-3-0	UFC	[Interim BW title holder]
3	3	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	41.01	21-2-0	One	--last rated win -26 months.
8	4	Hiromasa Ougikubo	BW	36.36	21-5-1	Rizi	???
15	5	Sergio Pettis	BW	35.93	15-5-0	Bell	Bellator BW tournament

Last year's grade: A+

We award ourselves an ironic A+ because, well, we picked Sterling to hold the title and he does. We also picked Fernandes 2nd and he didn't lose. Neither did Cejudo! Of course Sterling won in less-than-honorable circumstances, Fernandes was idle all year and Cejudo remained retired. But our long-shot pick of TJ Dillashaw wasn't bad, as he made a successful comeback.

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) TJ Dillashaw  2) Petr Yan  3) Kyoji Horiguchi

Analysis: After our luck with Sterling, we see Yan winning the rematch. But we're still not sold on Yan's greatness, and Dillashaw might end up with our belt. Yan is currently #10 due to the DQ loss to Sterling while Dillashaw is #6 after his comeback. Ougikubo is a wild card due to fighting in Rizin, as he's milked most of the points possible from fighting in that org, and will probably lose in 2022 at some point. We also assume Cejudo is retired for good and that Fernandes has been too inactive at his age and will probably lose, too. The real question is: who will win the Bellator Bantamweight tournament? If we knew that, we'd usher that person to the top spot, but it's a tough pick among 8 fighters. We still have confidence in Kyoji Horiguchi who dominated Sergio Pettis until the one-elbow KO did him in.

Long-shot/wild card: Umar Nurmagomedov. Why not? He's just #22 and only 1-0 in the UFC but he's got the potential to make a lot of progress and get there some day. The Nurmagomedov-adjacent fighters move up slowly, though, so this is really a long shot for 2022.

Vegas thinks: Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling (tie) Aldo. Not too different than ours, really. Aldo's inclusion is interesting; we think his comeback run is coming to an end, but it would be great if it continues.

Flyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno  WC: Adriano Moraes

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Brandon Moreno	FL	34.66	9-2-2	UFC	•1/22 vs. #8 Deiveson Figueiredo
2	2	Adriano Moraes	FL	30.61	8-2-0	One	#5 Demetrious Johnson
3	3	Alexandre Pantoja	FL	24.69	10-3-0	UFC	Moreno/Figueiredo winner
4	4	Joshua Pacio	FL	24.38	5-1-0	One	?
5	5	Demetrious Johnson	FL	24.00	22-4-1	One	#2 Adriano Moraes

Last year's grade: B-

How were we to know that Mighty Mouse would be upset and Figueiredo would get beat soundly? We at least kept Moreno in the mix at #3—and had Moraes, who beat Johnson, as our long shot (he ended up #2). 

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Brandon Moreno  3) Askar Askarov

Analysis: Looking at the top five, it's about 50/50 whether the end-of-2022 champ comes from the UFC or One Championship. And we have to still believe that DJ is the cream of the crop there, whereas in the UFC it's less clear-cut: Moreno is a good possibility, as is Askarov. Pacio is really a Strawweight, but ranked here for lack of another weight class ranking; he probably can't amass enough points to get to the top easily.

Long-shot/wild card: Henry Cejudo. Yes we're out of ideas. This is probably the least likely weight class between FW/BW/FL for Cejudo to make his unlikely comeback in.

Vegas thinks: Moreno, Figueiredo, Askarov. Interesting that they include Askarov, too. So pretty close to how ours would look if we only listed UFC fighters.

 

Well that's it...see you in 2023 for a recap!

2022: January 1st's Solid Heavyweight Boxing lineup: Sanchez vs. Hammer, Ortiz vs. Martin, and 3 more HW bouts

I don't recall January 1st being a big day for boxing...ever? And the month of January has been dreary for heavyweight boxing for some time now. For example, looking through our database for recent years, the month of January had exactly one significant HW bout this January (2021), and for the previous years the figures were: 1, 4, 3, 7, 11, 3, 8, 6, 9, 7, and 13. That's going back to 2010. The average month sees about 10 significant fights per month over this time period and January has matched that twice out of the last 12 years.

The total number of notable fights might not exceed 10 this January but certainly January 1st, as a particular day, will have a lot to offer and will pretty much redeem the entire month. There are five scheduled heavyweight bouts on New Year's Day so, even if 2022 isn't a great boxing year, it will at least kick off on a good note. Here's the rundown:

• #6 Frank Sanchez (19-0-0) vs. #155 Christian Hammer (26-8-0)
  Originally it was #100 Carlos Negron facing Sanchez, but Hammer stepped in on very short notice which might (or might not) make this fight more interesting than it seemed previously. The problem with Hammer, though, is that he hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in three years since giving Michael Wallisch his first loss. Since then he's lost to Luis Ortiz, Tony Yoka, and Hughie Fury, with all three losses being essentially shutouts on the scorecards. Hammer retired with a bicep injury vs. Fury, but he was on his way to a 119-109 style decision loss. Sanchez is coming off a strong showing against Efe Ajagba and seems hungry to make quick progress, which makes us think a 100-90 card is in the works. If Hammer had been showing any signs of life we'd keep the prospect of an upset open, but these are fighters going in different directions in terms of their motivation.
  
  
• #58 Luis Ortiz (32-2-0) vs. #80 Charles Martin (28-2-1)
  This is the headliner, but in our rankings Ortiz has slumped due to inactivity and Martin has just stayed inside the top 100. Ortiz has only lost to Deontay Wilder, which is nothing to be ashamed of, but his quality wins are few and far between, especially now. You have to go back to March of 2019 where he beat Christian Hammer—now on the card vs. Frank Sanchez—to find a solid win, after which he suffered the 2nd Wilder KO. Since then he KO'ed Alexander Flores in the first round more than a year ago. At Ortiz's age—officially 42 but some believe him to be much older—there's always the question of when he starts to really slow down. Martin is younger by at least 7 years and is most famous for losing to Anthony Joshua in 2016. After that he lost a close fight to Adam Kownacki and only recently made a comeback with a solid win over Gerald Washington (also on this card). With Ortiz so inactive and Martin coming off his best win in at least 5 years, we see Martin as a live underdog, the result depending on whether Ortiz is still sharp at 42+. In terms of boxing skill there's no comparison, which is why Ortiz is about a 4 to 1 favorite.
  
  
• #59 Jonathan Rice (14-6-1) vs. #63 Michael Polite Coffie (12-1-0)
  This fight's a rematch of an upset, and you can tell by their records who upset who. Last July 31st Rice didn't take the journeyman fall, instead controlling the fight and winning in a 5th round stoppage over the previously unbeaten Coffie. Coffie had prepared for Gerald Washington (these same names keep popping up) until a week before and as we pointed out in the Hammer vs. Sanchez preview, substitutions often equals chaos. Rice's career until that point had been highlighted by a win over Rodney Hernandez and subsequent bigger paydays vs. Tony Yoka, Arslanbek Makmudov, Demsey McKean, and Efe Ajagba, all undefeated at the time. This certainly gave the impression that he was cashing in to be record-building fodder for stay-busy fights. But he went the distance with Yoka and Ajagba, and lasted until the 10th with McKean in a fairly close contest. Meanwhile Coffie's résumé is pretty thin: recent stoppage wins over Joey Abell and Darmani Rock were impressive, but he's clearly inexperienced after just 13 fights following a career in the Marines. Seeing how Rice dominated the first fight makes him the favorite to repeat it. It probably won't be as easy this time as Coffie will prepare for Rice and work to correct his mistakes from the first go-around, but he might lack the boxing experience to solve problems this quickly. Look for the fight to go the distance this time, but Rice to end up on top again. Coffie needs this one to keep his career going, but we've seen this before with johnny-come-latelies to the sport—it usually doesn't end well. Both fighters stand 6-5 so it's a battle of giants like many heavyweight bouts these days.
  
  
• #67 Ali Demirezen (14-1-0) vs. #126 Gerald Washington (20-4-1)
  Demirezen's sole loss was a wide UD to Efe Ajagba where he wasn't able to mount much of an attack against Ajagba's 85" reach. Washington isn't quite as imposing but still will have a bit of height and reach advantage. Demirezen, who had a solid Olympic-level amateur career, responded reasonably well to his loss with three wins including solid journeyman Kamil Sokolowski but Washington will be the Turk's toughest fight since his loss. Washington's up and down career saw him lose 3 out of 4 fights at one point—to Deontay Wilder, a PED-powered Jarell Miller, and Adam Kownacki—before he revived his career with an 8th round KO of Robert Helenius in July, 2019. His followup didn't go as well and he lost to Charles Martin vs. 6th round TKO last year. Washington is the wild card here, and Demirezen's methodical (some would say boring) style probably doesn't allow much room for an upset. Demirezen's a 2 to 1 favorite and we think it should be a bit wider. Demirezen doesn't look like he should be very good and he wins ugly but he wins, unless clearly outclassed. Can Washington rise to that challenge?
  
  
• #38 Victor Faust (8-0-0) vs. #154 Iago Kiladze (27-5-1)
  We normally use fighters real names but we're calling Victor Vykhryst by his nickname Victor Faust for obvious reasons (you try typing that one correctly). He's 8-0 with 6 KOs and taking on Iago Kiladze, whose best result is a split draw against the previously unblemished Robert Alfonso. Just previous to that he'd lost to Adam Kownacki, Michael Hunter, and Joe Joyce, so he's another example of a journeyman-in-the-works who upset the cart once and is getting good work in return. He lost to Efe Ajagba following the Alfonso bout, getting KOed in the middle rounds as he did in his other losses, but he had his most famous moment in that fight with a flash knockdown of Ajagba in the third round. Don't look for this one to go the distance; if Faust is going to live up to his billing as the next great Ukrainian heavyweight post-Klitschko brothers then we'll see a 4th or 5th round stoppage in the 8-round bout. But Kiladze has shown he can throw a few surprises into the mix here and there, so this will be some good early work for Faust's burgeoning career.

Between college football bowl games and some good basketball too, New Year's Day has a pretty full sports schedule so this card is probably a tough sell on Fox Sports PPV, but these are some pretty good fights. Back in the day this kind of stuff would be on free TV but alas, those days are gone and now every bout is for sale. Cards like this might help promote the sport back to its glory days if it were on regular cable but it seems like that ship has sailed. It is quite a bit cheaper than most fights ($39.99) but that's still quite a lot for non-title fights.

On a positive note, it's good to several ranked heavyweights willing to mix it up on the same card—that's the first step to getting the fans back.

Solid heavyweight boxing cards kick off December and January: Hunter, Arias, Sanchez, Ortiz in action

Good heavyweight fights have been few and far between for...about as long as you want to go back in this century. Every once in a while though the stars align and ranked contenders go against their inclinations and fight each other, and sometimes this occurs multiple times on a single card. Such is the case in the TrillerVerz IV card on Thursday, December 2, and the Fox Sports PPV event on January 1st, 2022.

The Triller event isn't quite as stacked but considering it's happening tomorrow it's safe to say its slate of fights is more likely to remain stable. Its fights include Michael Hunter vs. Jerry Forrest, George Arias vs. Cassius Chaney, and Mike Balogun vs. Trey Lippe

• #13 Michael Hunter (20-1-1) vs. #88 Jerry Forrest (26-4-1)
  Hunter has slipped out of the top ten due to inactivity but remains a top contender boasting a 6-1-1 record in significant fights; his best win is over current #28 Martin Bakole and he fought #7 Alex Povetkin to a draw. His sole loss is to #2 Oleksandr Usyk in a cruiserweight bout.
  
  Forrest was declining after losses to Jermaine Franklin and Carlos Takam but managed a draw against #50 Zhilei Zhang which propelled him back into the top 100. So ironically both fighters are best known for their performance in a fight that ended in a draw. Let's hope this one doesn't end in a draw.
  
  The two fighters have met before, in June of 2014 where Hunter took a unanimous 80-72 decision over 8 rounds. It was Hunter's fifth pro fight, just before he dropped down to campaign at Cruiserweight for a few years prior to his heavyweight return in 2018. Following that loss Forrest won 18 fights in a row against low-level competition, lost twice more, and then had the draw with Zhang. Needless to say, Hunter is a huge favorite to repeat his performance against Forrest.
  
  
• #30 George Arias (16-0-0) vs. #43 Cassius Chaney (21-0-0)
  This is a big fight—someone's "O" has got to go. Neither fighter has faced a very impressive slate however, so this will be a proving ground for both. Arias has a couple of rated wins over Keith Barr and Joe Caudle, while Chaney has also defeated Caudle along with three other rated wins including Shawndell Winters and Nick Jones who are still ranked. The winner will move closer to contender status near the top 20.
  
  
• #49 Mike Balogun (17-0-0) vs. #186 Trey Lippe (18-0-0)
  Another battle of undefeated fighters, but this one is a bit less impactful. In their combined 35 fights they have 4 noteable wins, with Balogun beating Mike Bissett and Keith Barr, and Lippe besting Richard Dawson and Ty Cobb. I'm sure you know all four of those guys. Lippe doesn't have a solid win in nearly five years where he's fought just 5 times, which gives the advantage to Balogun. Balogun needs a win to keep his momentum going while Lippe needs one to revive his stalled career. Balogun is more famous as an ex-college football player than a boxer, while Lippe is most famous for being one of Tommy Morrison's sons. This fight is a small step toward one of them making his name in the ring.

The Fox PPV has five fights all between rated fighters, with three intra-top 100 contests scheduled:

• #6 Frank Sanchez (19-0-0) vs. #100 Carlos Negron (25-3-0)
• #58 Luis Ortiz (32-2-0) vs. #80 Charles Martin (28-2-1)
• #59 Jonathan Rice (14-6-1) vs. #63 Michael Polite Coffie (12-1-0)
• #38 Victor Faust Vykhryst (8-0-0) vs. #154 Iago Kiladze (27-5-1)
• #67 Ali Demirezen (14-1-0) vs. #126 Gerald Washington (20-4-1)

We'll preview those fights later in the month in case more fights are added (or more likely, cancelled).

Heavyweight Boxing Top 10 update for October 10, 2021

With the big fights we had over the weekend, we're going to jump the gun and update the monthly Top 100 a bit early to reflect the results. Tyson Fury is of course the big news, capturing the SportsRatings Heavyweight belt yet again.

Fury first captured the belt on November 28, 2015 when he beat Wladimir Klitschko. He held it as the rematch loomed but ultimately never came and Fury went inactive on November 29, 2016—making then-#4 Deontay Wilder the interim champ as #2 Klitschko and #3 Alex Povetkin were also inactive.

Fury's comeback bout with Sefer Seferi didn't register as a rated fight, so it wasn't until he beat Francesco Pianeta on August 18, 2018 that he regained the belt. He had remained at the #1 spot all along but the interim belt was held by Wilder, Povetkin, and Anthony Joshua for almost two years. And just one month after Fury regained the title, Joshua beat Povetkin to claim the belt himself!

Fury had a chance to reclaim the belt against Deontay Wilder in December of 2018 but that fight was an infamous draw. Instead, he regained the belt in an unusual manner: when Andy Ruiz Jr upset Joshua on June 1, 2019, Ruiz only jumped to #2, making Fury the belt holder instead! He held it through his wins over Tom Schwarz (non-rated) and Otto Wallin, but when Joshua beat Ruiz in the rematch in December of 2019 he regained the belt again. That's three times holding the belt for Fury, twice for Joshua at this point.

But it wasn't long before Fury struck again, beating Wilder in their rematch on February 22, 2020 and grabbing the belt for the fourth time. Of course we know what happened next: Fury vs. Joshua was all but a done deal when Wilder invoked the rematch clause, the fight was scheduled, then delayed, and in February of 2021 Fury lost the belt again due to inactivity.

Joshua missed a chance to reclaim it last month vs. Oleksandr Usyk, who jumped to #2 behind Fury, then just last weekend, October 9, 2021, Fury took the belt for the 5th time. In total he lost the belt twice purely for inactivity, and twice being jumped over on rating points by Anthony Joshua.

SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 10 for fights through October 9, 2021

-3 yrs	-1 yr	-6 mo	Oct Rank	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	October 1-9 results
2	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	52.41	19-0-1	KO 11 #5 DEONTAY WILDER
--	24	24	2	2	OLEKSANDR USYK	35.64	3-0-0
1	2	2	3	3	ANTHONY JOSHUA	33.42	17-2-0
6	9	4	4	4	DILLIAN WHYTE	26.35	14-2-0
38	5	5	6	5	ANDY RUIZ JR	24.71	14-2-0
--	14	11	11	6	FRANK SANCHEZ	20.66	5-0-0	UD 10 #9 EFE AJAGBA
4	4	6	7	7	ALEX POVETKIN	19.59	30-3-1	--last rated win -14 months.
47	27	8	8	8	JOE JOYCE	18.20	8-0-0
26	13	9	10	9	JOSEPH PARKER	17.95	18-2-0
3	3	3	5	10	DEONTAY WILDER	17.82	18-2-1	L KO 11 #1 TYSON FURY

Deontay Wilder drops from #5 to #10. He's been winless for two years now as both rematches played out. Most would argue he did better this time, and really, the third fight was sort of a combination of the first two—Wilder almost knocked Fury out, and Fury bullied Wilder into submission. His career from this point on will be interesting.

The other big winner of the weekend was Frank Sanchez, who won a decision over previously unbeated Efe Ajagba and jumped from #11 to #6. He showed good skill—and experience—in neutralizing Ajagba's size and power advantage to hand him his first loss. It gives confidence that he might be able to handle the size of some of the giants in the top ten, but all of them have a lot more experience than Ajagba. A fight with #9 Joseph Parker or Ruiz might be interesting, or #4 Dillian Whyte—but Whyte deserves a title shot not yet another eliminator.

Where does this leave the heavyweight division? Well, Wilder is out of the picture for a while at least. Fury is in, and with luck will fight the winner of the Joshua-Usyk rematch. Again, Dillian Whyte has been waiting years, so why not Fury-Whyte in the UK?

Tyson Fury - Deontay Wilder III Round-by-round scoring

#1 Tyson Fury vs. #5 Deontay Wilder for the undisputed SportsRatings Heavyweight championship. 

Round-by-round scoring will follow the prelims. For coverage of Ajagba-Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki see this post.

Entrances are done, fight is starting within minutes.

• Round One: Quick body jabs from Wilder. 3rd body jab. 4th. 1-2 to the body, he's really focusing on the body, now he goes upstairs and connects. Very active, Fury not throwing yet. More body jabs, unexpected by Fury. More body shots. Fury tries 1-2 then clinches. Jab to the head from Wilder. Big shot from Wilder misses. Right to the body, and again. Fury returns fire, clinch headlock. Fury connects with 1-2 late but round to Wilder 10-9.
• Round Two: Wilder jabbing again but not as forcefully. Fury attacks, Wilder launches counterattack, then clinch. Fury body hook, now clinches. Big shot from Wilder misses narrowly as Fury jumps back. Ref allowing clinch work from Fury. Right hand by Wilder, Fury comes back and clinches. More wrestling near the end of the round. Closer round 10-10; Wilder 20-19.
• Round Three: Fury body shot of his own. Wilder's jabs not as forceful. Fury on the attack more, he comes in an clinches, tries to in-fight. Wilder a few jabs but he's backing up more now. Fury headlock is stopped by the ref quickly, warns against headlock. Wild swinging by both fighters, Wilder connects with a strong right. Fury returns strong jab. More big swings by both fighters look tired. Fury short shot puts Wilder down for an 8-count, he's hurt. Wilder holding on and survives. 10-8 Fury; 29-28.
• Round Four: Wilder looks shaky, Fury has him against ropes. Wilder holds on. Fury is tired too but Wilder just looking for one shot. Fury has Wilder against ropes. Big shot from Wilder puts Fury on the canvas, he barely gets up! Fury gets big shot in, but Fury goes down yet again! Round ends! Wilder 10-7; Wilder 38-36
• Round Five: Jabs from Wilder, big punch from Fury misses. Ref struggles to separate them. Fury is looking better, Wilder still swinging for the fences. Fury 1-2 rocks Wilder. They wrestle-fight which helps Fury. Wilder connects with 2 big rights! Wilder measuring him, Fury swings big too. They clinch, both are spent. Another clinch. Crazy round, 10-10; Wilder 48-46.
• Round Six: Fury trying to box more, looks recovered pretty well. Fury right hook then clinches. Wilder swinging a lot. Fury wrestling a lot, almost makes Wilder take a knee. Big punch from both fighters. Fury suddenly comes alive, Wilder responds, Fury charges in again. Fury pressuring Wilder. Fury got the best of the action one way or another 10-9; Wilder 57-56.
• Round Seven: Fury big 1-2, tries to clinch and pressure but ref doesn't let him. Fury now pushing against the ropes, trying to brawl his way to a win. Ducks Wilder's big right; this is starting to look like the 2nd fight. Big right from Fury. Uppercuts from Fury in clinch. Big right from Wilder, Fury wears it well; another 1-2 form Wilder. Fury responds, Wilder is in trouble, barely staying up. Fury 10-9; 66-66.
• Round Eight: Fury looks confident, Wilder unsteady. Fury pressuring against the ropes. Big right from Wilder, doesn't affect Fury right now. Fury responds with big shots, Wilder survives somehow. Fury wobbles Wilder. Wilder clinches for last 10 seconds. Fury 10-9; 76-75.
• Round Nine: Concerns about Wilder's right hand, but he says its okay. Fury looks fresh, Wilder looks wobbly still. Wilder comes alive with punches but Fury weathers the storm. Big flurry from Fury, WIlder stays up. Big clinch, wrestling from Fury. Wilder's energy is low but he keeps trying to land right. Fury getting the better of it, Wilder lands big uppercut near the end. Fury 10-9; 86-84. 
• Round Ten: Fury combination puts Wilder against the ropes again, Wilder getting beat up again. Wilder sleepwalking around the ring, huge shot by Fury puts Wilder down, but he somehow gets up! Wilder trying to survive. Big uppercut from Fury, Wilder has crazy flurry at end! But still 10-8 Fury with the knockdown, Fury 96-92.
• Round Eleven: Clinching from Fury, Wilder pinned against rings after hard shot. Big uppercut from Wilder and another one. Wilder is down and fight is waved off. Tyson Fury KO 11 Deontay Wilder

Tyson Fury regains the SportsRatings Heavyweight Belt with the 11th round KO in an incredible fight from both fighters. Wilder will get a lot of respect in the boxing world for his effort.

Fury-Wilder III Undercard: Ajagba-Sanchez, Helenius-Kownacki round-by-round scoring

The Fury-Wilder undercard has two big-time heavyweight fights: #9 Efe Ajagba vs. #11 Frank Sanchez, and #23 Robert Helenius vs. #54 Adam Kownacki.

Two other heavyweight fights of interest are on the undercard. 

• #44 Viktor Faust TKO 3 #145 Mike Marshall
• #24 Jared AndersonTKO 2 Vladimir Tereshkin

We will have round-by-round scoring for the Ajagba-Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki bouts.

First up is Helenius-Kownacki II

• Round One: Helenius hard shot to the body. Countering Kownacki's jabs too; now he ties up. Kownacki good jab to the jaw. Kownacki has a beard now, too so he looks like a shorter Helenius. Helenius throwing good jabs. Helenius throwing hard leather. Has him against the ropes, unloading on Kownacki who survives to the bell. Very solid round for Helenius 10-9.
• Round Two: Tie-up early. Kownacki coming in close, trying to close the distance. Helenius strikes from afar and ties up. Kownacki is pressing the action. Good shot in the corner rocks Helenius. Both of Kownacki's eyes are swollen. Helenius is slower this round like he used a lot of energy in the first round. Still jabbing well late in the round. More jabs and 1-2s late evens up the round 10-10; 20-19 Helenius.
• Round Three: Helenius relaxed, Kownacki pressing the action again but Helenius counters well. More tie-ups as Kownacki closes in. Kownacki trying to keep a high work-rate but having mixed success. Kownacki slows down near the end again and Helenius unloads jabs and 1-2 shots that wobble Kownacki until a low blow bends Helenius over right near the end of the round. No point taken but round goes to Helenius 10-9; 30-28.
• Round Four: More jabs from Helenius and close work by Kownacki leads to clinch; ref not allowing inside work. A few good shots from Kownacki. More jabs from Helenius, uppercut too but not a lot on it. Helenius avoiding Kownacki's closing, looks a bit like Tyson Fury slipping these shots. 1-2 from the outside now late in the round. Kownacki's face is bloodied. Helenius 10-9; 40-37.
• Round Five: Kownacki closing in with more head movement early. Another low blow from Kownacki in the clinch gets a point taken from Kownacki. Kownacki pressing the action again, having some success, but getting a lot in return from Helenius. 1-2 from Helenius at distance as Kownacki not closing in late in the round, making him a sitting duck for Helenius. He's in trouble with 30 seconds left. Helenius not in any hurry, maybe a bit tired. 10-8 for Helenius with the deduction; 50-45 Helenius.
• Round Six: The doctor considered stopping the fight between rounds due to Kownacki's eyes. Helenius is taking his time, making sure not to gas himself. He can afford to be relaxed because Kownacki isn't throwing much anymore. He's also not closing the distance which helps Helenius. Kownacki is almost out of jab range even.  Both fighters are taking this round off. Strangely the ref stopped the fight, apparently it was for low blows. Helenius wins by DQ.

In replay there was a clear groin shot by Kownacki, about the only thing he had thrown the entire sixth round. Helenius looked pretty good overall, while Kownacki looked bad physically and mentally, not responding well to his first loss at all.

Now: the top ten eliminator with undefeated fighters: Efe Ajagba vs. Frank Sanchez

• Round One: Feeling out process early, little action in first minute. Flurry by Ajagba misses and Sanchez counters. Ajagba stalking Sanchez. Body blow by Ajagba, Sanchez good counter. Sanchez definitely looking to counter...whiffs on big hook. Not much happened though. 10-10.
• Round Two: More action this round, still not wild by any means. Long Jabs by Ajagba, counters by Sanchez. Sanchez shuffles in with double jab attempt. Big overhand by Sanchez is first real solid punch, Ajagba took it well. Sanchez against the ropes with Ajagba in center of ring. Counter jabs by Sanchez score. Sanchez fast on his strikes. Very slight advantage to Sanchez 10-9; 20-19.
• Round Three: Ajagba slugging hard with his shots, mostly blocked. Good right by Sanchez, Ajagba whiffs as Sanchez ducks. Ajagba having trouble finding Sanchez, who doesn't have many opportunities himself. Good exchange, Sanchez probably connected better. Decent shot by Ajagba. Jab by Sanchez. Another close round for Sanchez 10-9; 30-28.
• Round Four: Sanchez still frustrating Ajagba with movement and counters. A few jabs by Ajagba. Stalking but not letting it go. Big hook by Sanchez, mostly blocked. Ajagba not pulling the trigger standing in front of Sanchez. Body shots by Ajagba. Probably too close to give to Ajagba. 10-10; 40-38 Sanchez.
• Round Five: More posturing by both fighters. Ajagba pushes Sanchez into the ropes. Traps him there again and Sanchez avoids body shots. Tie-up as both miss. Even first half of round. Crowd starting to boo. They mix it up a bit but nothing effective. Sanchez really not doing anything at all either as Ajagba stalks him. Tie up near the end of the round. 10-9 Ajagba since Sanchez did nothing; 49-48 Sanchez.
• Round Six: Body jab by Ajagba. Counter by Sanchez after Ajagba lunge. Blocking each other's jabs. Solid right from Ajagba connects.Wild swing by Sanchez causes a slip, might have been hit by Ajagba. Ajagba 10-9 since that could have been knock down. 59-59.
• Round Seven: Drop was ruled a slip, so a 10-9 for Ajagba is probably fair. More mixing it up this round but to no one's advantage. Sanchez lands a jab and cross to the face. Both fighters looking more focused. Great counter from Sanchez on uppercut. Last minute is slower. Holy crap, Sanchez knocks Ajagba down, but then Sanchez hits him while on one knee. No penalty for the illegal shot, and no count? That was crazy. 10-8 Sanchez; 69-67
• Round Eight: Ajagba looks pretty recovered. Stalking again big shots from Sanchez, he smells blood now. Ajagba recovers and goes back to stalking, some good body shots. Not much else happens. Sanchez 10-9; 79-76.
• Round Nine: Ajagba needs a knockdown for a draw on our card with 2 rounds left. Corner imploring him. Sanchez staying conservative as he looks to protect his lead and not take chances. Not looking for KO really anymore since Ajagba took those last shots well. But Ajagba isn't doing anything either. Big clash amounts to nothing connected. Big overhand right from Ajagba might win him that round. 10-9 Ajagba; 88-86 Sanchez.
• Round Ten: Corner REALLY imploring Ajagba to let his hands go for the KO. Sanchez standing in front, backing down less at first, but backs up to ropes eventually. Ajagba lunges in for a right. Sanchez counters with a right off Ajagba's jabs. Round half over and Ajagba is only slightly more active. Sanchez jumps in and connects. Sanchez doing a good job evading any opportunity for Ajagba, who let the round go without really trying for the KO. Sanchez 10-9; Sanchez 98-95.

Our "three" cards, splitting the 10-10 rounds, would be Sanchez 98-93; Sanchez 98-95; Sanchez 96-95. Should be a unanimous decision for Frank Sanchez.

Official decision: Sanchez 97-92; 98-91; 98-91.

A big step forward for Frank Sanchez, while Efe Ajagba drops his first fight. As the younger fighter he had less to lose, providing he responds well to his first loss, unlike Adam Kownacki.

Fury-Wilder III undercard full of solid fights

When Fury-Wilder III was postponed a few months ago, the fear was that the great undercard would fall apart but that didn't happen. So now we have a total of three excellent heavyweight bouts and two more involving our Top 100.

First and foremost of course is the headliner, the trilogy between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder.

#1 Tyson Fury (30-0-1) 21KO vs. #5 Deontay Wilder (42-1-1) 41KO

For SportsRatings, this is only the 4th true heavyweight title fight since Fury upset Wlad Klitschko in November of 2015. By this we mean a fight where the winner would become our undisputed heavyweight champion. For example, with Fury inactive Klitschko, then #2,  took on Anthony Joshua (ranked #6) but that was only for the interim title. Likewise when Fury came back against #186 Francisco Pianeta, only Fury would capture the title with a win.

The other "true" title fights were:

• In November of 2018 #2 Anthony Joshua beat #3 Alex Povetkin and took over the #1 spot;
• December, 2019, #2 Andy Ruiz Jr lost to #4 Joshua, who captured the title;
• February, 2020, #1 Fury (inactive at the time) beat #4 Wilder to regain the title

The first Fury-Wilder in December 2018 wasn't a true title fight as only Fury had a chance to take the title (and the draw kept it from being a title fight for him). The first Joshua-Ruiz bout wasn't a title fight for Ruiz, who jumped to #2 behind Fury.

Most recently, Aleksandr Usyk's win over Joshua put him at the #2 spot—and enabled Saturday's fight to be a title fight for both Fury and Wilder.

With Fury at #1, any win over a rated heavyweight would capture the belt. Wilder has fallen to #5 and is also inactive, but a win over Fury would put him well past Usyk at #1.

What about a loss? Fury would drop to #3 behind Wilder and Usyk, but remain very slightly ahead of Joshua. It would be quite the logjam. If Wilder loses he'll fall to near the bottom of the top 10.

#9 Efe Ajagba (15-0-0) 12 KOs vs. #11 Frank Sanchez (18-0-0) 13KOs

This is a great undercard fight and could headline most heavyweight shows. Both are arguably top ten fighters, but this bout will put one fighter squarely in the top ten and the other will be firmly out, for now.

Ajagba has 10 rated wins to Sanchez' four, but their ratings are pretty similar with Ajagba only two rankings spots ahead. The fighter who wins will jump to around #7, the loser will fall to somewhere in the 20s.

A lot at stake here for momentum between the Nigerian fighter and the Cuban, one getting a big boost, the other taking a big step back.

#23 Robert Helenius (30-3) 19KO vs. #54 Adam Kownacki (20-1-0) 15KO

A rematch of the fight from March 2020 when Helenius handed Kownacki his first and only loss.

10 years ago Helenius was as high as #4 in our rankings but injuries and a long layoff pushed him lower, and a KO loss to Johann Duhaupas knocked him out of the top ten. Since then he's been up and down, beating Gonzale Basile and Evgeny Orlov but losing to Dillian Whyte in a wide decision. He topped Erkan Teper but fell to Gerald Washington in a 8th round KO. 

The win over Kownacki was Helenius' biggest win in nearly a decade. Kownacki was unbeaten in 20 outings and had 9 rated wins in our book and had just cracked the top ten before the loss. Currently down to #54 after going two years without a rated win, Kownacki would jump back into the top 20 if he can avenge his only loss.

#44 Viktor Faust (Vykhryst) (7-0-0) 5KO vs. #145 Mike Marshall (6-1-1) 4KO

Another undefeated fighter, Viktor Faust hopes to beat Mike Marshall and give himself a 2nd rated win. Faust (real name Viktor Vykhryst) beat Kamil Sokolowski last November. Marshall has never been in our top 100, having only a draw with Steve Vukosa on his résumé, along with a loss to Luther Smith.

#24 Jared Anderson (9-0-0) 9KOs vs. Vladimir Tereshkin (22-0-1) 12KO

Undefeated Jared Anderson battles also-undefeated Tereshkin, who was in our top 100 five years ago after beating Yuberty Diaz but didn't have another rated win among his three bouts since then. Anderson has 3 rated wins in the last 15 months, beating Johnny Langston, Rodney Hernandez, and Kingsley Ibeh.

We'll have round-by-round scoring for the headliner bout, probably for Ajagba vs. Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki tomorrow starting roughly at 10pm eastern (the title fight should start somewhere between 11pm and 12 midnight eastern time, PPV on ESPN/FOX).

October is Light Heavyweight Month in MMA: Blachowicz-Teixeira, Nemkov-Anglickas, Bader-Anderson, & more

If you like the Light Heavyweight division in MMA then October is the month for you, with six of our top ten fighters active, and no less that four intra-top 25 bouts.

Two fights will determine who the Interim SportsRatings Light Heavyweight title holder is. The actual belt has been vacant for over six months since Jon Jones officially went inactive. Jones has threatened to move up to Heavyweight and recently has had legal problems (to say the least) so who knows when he will fight again. He continues to lose rating points but will rank #1 for at least the rest of 2021.

That leaves #2 Jan Blachowicz with the interim belt, which he will defend on October 30 against #5 Glover Teixeira. If he wins, he holds the belt, that part is simple. If Teixeira wins, then it depends on the results of #3 Vadim Nemkov vs. #13 Julius Anglickas on the 16th at Bellator. If Glover and Nemkov both win, Nemkov will be the interim title holder. Teixeira needs Anglickas to beat Nemkov.

Other big bouts include #4 Ryan Bader against #8 Corey Anderson, also on the 16th as Bellator; this, like Nemkov-Anglickas, is part of Bellator's Light Heavyweight tournament, and the winners will face each other in the Grand Prix final. Note that Anglickas is a replacement for Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson who pulled out of the tournament due to (non-Covid) illness.

And finally for the top ten, #6 Magomed Ankalaev fights #36 Volkan Oezdemir. Oezdemir is a lot better than our ranking suggests; his last win was over current #16 Aleksander Rakic almost two years ago, after which he lost to current #9 Jiri Prochazka. Ankalaev is 15-1, his sole loss to #11 Paul Craig in 2018 followed by a 6-fight win streak.

SportsRatings Light Heavyweight rankings - top 8

Sept Rank	Oct Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	September results; •October schedule
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	75.44	20-1-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Jan Blachowicz	LH	62.81	22-6-0	UFC	[interim LH title holder] •10/30 vs. #5 Glover Teixeira [to retain interim LH title]
3	3	Vadim Nemkov	LH	50.92	8-2-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #13 Julius Anglickas  [for interim LH title]?
4	4	Ryan Bader	LH	32.71	22-6-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #8 Corey Anderson
5	5	Glover Teixeira	LH	26.59	25-6-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #2 Jan Blachowicz  [for interim LH title]?
6	6	Magomed Ankalaev	LH	26.18	8-1-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #36 Volkan Oezdemir
9	7	Phil Davis	LH	22.43	19-6-0	Bell	Beat #25 Yoel Romero
7	8	Corey Anderson	LH	22.22	10-4-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #4 Ryan Bader

And that's not all. Outside the top ten there are several others active:

• #17 Da Un Jung battles #20 Kennedy Nzechukwu on the 16th in the UFC
• #19 Shamil Gamzatov fights #48 Michal Oleksiejczuk on the 30th, also in the UFC
• #24 Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov takes on #39 Karl Albrektsson in Bellator on the 16th

And we've already seen one results, as #62 Thiago Santos defeated #21 Johnny Walker by unanimous decision on October 2nd. Santos got his first win since February of 2019, and that dry spell coupled with three losses sent him to the nether zone in our ratings, but he'll be coming back up, probably just shy of the top 25 however. Santos overcome several injuries suffered during his loss to Jon Jones but looked much better against Walker than he did in losses to Teixeira and Rakic.

Ramifications

We've covered the belt situation: Blachowicz needs to win, Nemkov needs Blachowicz to lose, and Teixeira needs to win and have Nemkov to lose.

What's the best-case for Ryan Bader? He's too far behind at #4 to gain much ground with a win, so he'll only make a major advance if he wins the full tournament. If he beats Anderson and then Nemkov, he would be the interim title holder provided Glover Teixeira beats Blachowicz. Here's a look at the Bellator fighters' best possible ratings.

1) After the next round of fights, assuming a win:

• Nemkov 52.73
• Anglickas 40.88
• Bader 36.29
• Anderson 32.07

2) After the Grand Prix final, depending on their opponent in the final:

• Nemkov 58.64 / 57.40
• Bader 52.03 / 46.40
• Anderson 49.18 / 43.17
• Anglickas 48.27 / 46.75

Compare this to the values for Blachowicz or Teixeira after winning their fight:

• Blachowicz 65.56
• Glover 51.76

So you see, if Nemkov wins the Grand Prix he would overtake Teixeira regardless of opponent, and Bader would hold the interim belt over Teixeira if he beats Anderson and then Nemkov (but not if he faces Anglickas).

In all other cases, or if Blachowicz successfully defends his title, 2nd best (really, 3rd) is the best a Bellator fighter can do. 

When will Jones relinquish the top spot?

A long time, sadly. That's what happens when you dominate and go undefeated—you build up a huge point advantage. Jones would either have to lose or finally actually fight in another division to disappear from the top spot in the next year. That's right A YEAR before his points decay enough to fall to #2.

If Jan beats Glover and doesn't fight again, he wouldn't take over the #1 spot until the September 1st, 2022 ratings. Nemkov would have to wait until March of 2023. Bader and Glover's best shots wouldn't get them to #1 until August of 2023. Of course Nemkov, Bader, and Glover would have to fight before then or be considered inactive themselves.

And since Bones won't be fighting anywhere in the near future, it looks like we'll be discussing the Light Heavyweight interim belt well into next year, if not longer.

Usyk up to #2, takes interim SportsRatings title; Fury-Wilder fight for outright belt

Oleksandr Usyk outboxed Anthony Joshua on Saturday and even won the decision on all three cards. The idea that Joshua "couldn't lose" a decision was proved wrong. Money talks, but it doesn't jab, dodge, and bewilder the way Usyk did to Joshua in winning yesterday.

Usyk holds interim belt—for the next two weeks

Usyk jumps from #23 to #2 in our rankings, capturing Joshua's interim SportsRatings Heavyweight title, while idle fighters #1 Tyson Fury and #5 Deontay Wilder will battle for the third time on October 9th, and that one is a true title fight.

In other words, both men will be fighting for the title—the winner will be #1. If Joshua had defeated Usyk and then Wilder beat Fury, Wilder would only be #2. But with Joshua out of the way, if Wilder beats the odds and wins the trilogy fight he will finally be at the very top.

SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Rankings for September 26, 2021

-3 Yr	-1 Yr	-6 mo	Sept Rank	Oct Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	September results; •October schedule
2	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	49.20	18-0-1	--last rated win -19 months; •10/9 vs. #5 DEONTAY WILDER  [for HW title]
--	39	26	23	2	OLEKSANDR USYK	35.64	3-0-0	UD 12 #2 ANTHONY JOSHUA [new Interim HW champion]
1	2	2	2	3	ANTHONY JOSHUA	33.42	17-2-0	L UD 12 #23 OLEKSANDR USYK
6	9	4	3	4	DILLIAN WHYTE	26.35	14-2-0
3	3	3	4	5	DEONTAY WILDER	25.54	18-1-1	--last rated win -22 months; •10/9 vs. #1 TYSON FURY  [for HW title]

Of course if Fury wins he will still be #1, and he will no longer be inactive and thus will reclaim his title.

Remember all the people saying Fury was crazy for agreeing to fight Wilder again with the Joshua battle looming? Looks like maybe it was Joshua who was crazy not to wait.

Whyte Still Waiting in the Wings

And as usual lost in the shuffle among the title fighters is #4 Dillian Whyte, who earned a title shot about 100 years ago but has been delayed by the Fury-Wilder draw, the Joshua loss to Ruiz, the Ruiz-Joshua rematch, the Fury-Wilder rematch, losing to Povetkin, delay in rematch with Povetkin, the Fury-Wilder trilogy delay, and now once again the Joshua loss to Usyk and certain accompanying rematch. Maybe now he can get a fight with Fury soon? Unless Wilder wins, making the series 1-1-1 and necessitating yet another go-around...

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk live round-by-round scoring

#2 Anthony Joshua takes on #23 Oleksandr Usyk in London, England. Both fighters have beaten every man they've faced.

Joshua, 31, is 24-1 with an avenged loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. He is the SportsRatings interim heavyweight belt holder as #1 ranked Tyson Fury is currently considered inactive.

Usyk, 34, is undefeated at 18-0 with all but a few of those wins coming at Cruiserweight where he was the undisputed champion, unifying all the belts—a rarity today. He is only #23 as he has won only two fights at Heavyweight. He has wins over Chazz Witherspoon and Dereck Chisora.

With Usyk's movement and unorthodox style (including his southpaw stance), we see a fight that will be difficult to score and might cause controversy if it goes to a decision. It might most closely resemble Joshua's decision win over Joseph Parker. But predictions from the experts are all over the place; no one has solved Usyk yet, but he has a big size disadvantage and bears no resemblance to the one person able to beat Joshua so far.

The fight should begin on DAZN just after 5:00pm eastern time (USA). ETA is 5:15 as announcements are being made at 5:00pm.

Note: Having some trouble updating on Typepad, so round-by-round results might be slightly behind.

• Round One: Joshua comes to the middle fast, good left to the face from Usyk! Lots of jab-hand pawing as expected given the orthodox vs. southpaw matchup. Good right from Joshua at the midpoint. Good left from Usyk again, and 1-2 followup. Big whiff from Joshua misses by a hair. Usyk dancing all around Joshua who pivots in the center. Usyk jumps in with a left late in the round and probably wins the first round. Usyk 10-9.
• Round Two: Joshua trying to establish the jab now. Hectic pace but little contact overall. Usyk jabs with the right hand. Joshua putting jab out but Usyk's movement making it hard to connect. Usyk staying outside, lunging in, mostly not connecting though. Gets a left in. Good shot to the body by Joshua. Another left from Usyk. Close round, 10-10; Usyk 20-19.
• Round Three: Body shot from Usyk maybe connects. Decent right from Joshua, Usyk undeterred. This is going to be hard to score. Usyk connects with a couple of strong shots! Doesn't hurt joshua but scores. Frenetic pace continues. Body shot by Usyk, he dodges return shots. Joshua having trouble finding him. Joshua is leaving jabs short and haning, another good shot from Usyk, and another that hurts him! Joshua has good shot near the end but round definitely to Usyk 10-9; Usyk 30-28.
• Round Four: Joshua slips after punch connects early. Joshua having trouble getting used to Usyk's movement, another jab hits him. Usyk attacking from various angles, mostly missing but confusing Joshua. Jab/hook connects for Usyk. Joshua connects with perhaps his best punch, and first clinch of the fight initiated by Joshua. Body shot from Usyk. Joshua jab gets 2 from Usyk in return. Close round, AJ did better but didn't really win it. 10-10; Usyk 40-38.
• Round Five: Uppercut from Usyk. Fighters slowing movement a bit, and more shots are connecting though with little effect. Big swing an miss from Joshua. AJ's jabs are looking better, but Usyk connects with a left. Left cross misses though. Good body shot from Joshua. Usyk connects right on the chin, AJ returns fire. Fighters trading glancing jabs, now swinging wildly from both men to end the round! Both fought well and we punt again. 10-10. Usyk 50-48.
• Round Six: The cards are going to be all over, we predict. Usyk defending more early in the round as Joshua jabs. Is he slowing down? Delivers a jab with less activity. Joshua making him miss a bit more. Both fighters missing a lot but then on cue both of them connect. Joshua connects with extended jab. Joshua probably wins that one, his first clear round. Joshua 10-9; Usyk 59-58
• Round Seven: Usyk jab the first big moment in round 7. Good right too. Another jab from Usyk, it seems he took the last round off to rest and is re-energized. Jab and left cross from Usyk. Another jab and two swings, one connects with the left. BIG left knocks AJ back several steps as he almost trips. Usyk unloading with several connections. Big round for Usyk, clearest round yet 10-9. Usyk 10-9, 69-67.
• Round Eight: Not much happens in first minute. Big body punch from AJ. Jab from Usyk. Joshua trying to establish ring dominance now with body shots. Usyk swings wild and misses in combination. Another body shot from AJ, and another. Joshua narrowly takes that one. Joshua 10-9; Usyk 78-77.
• Round Nine: First referee warning for...something. Fighters jabbing at range, AJ whiffs on big shot. Usyk rushes in for body shot, Joshua ties up for only 2nd time in fight. No one is connecting much at all as they're both at range. Joshua holds back of Usyk's neck, they break. Usyk lookng a bit tired but delivers a good left. Another too-close round that many will score either way. 10-10; Usyk 88-87.
• Round Ten: Did Usyk rest up last round? He's pretty active coming into the 10th. Joshua looks pretty fresh too. Usyk with big left, both look strong right now. Both jabbing with confidence in home stretch rounds. Left hand from Usyk scores. Jab from Usyk, right hand from Joshua. Close round halfway through. Big cut under Usyk's eye, fighters clinch and rest a bit. RIght hand from AJ, he sees blood, literally. Ref separeates them. Three strong shots from Usyk though. Both fighters eyes are hurt, another close round, we punt yet again. 10-10; Usyk 98-97.
• Round Eleven: These last two rounds will decide it. Usyk full of energy early, big shot from Usyk, Joshua undeterred, he's got energy too and returns fire. Both have slowed down by the end of the first minute. AJ coming on now as Usyk dodges. AJ is jabbing well now. Lots of movement and little connection until Usyk gets in a right with a minute left. Misses on several swinging lefts and rights. Joshua standing still a bit too much now. Joshua started well but Usyk finished a lot better. Usyk 10-9, 108-106.
• Round Twelve: Usyk going crazy coming at AJ. Fight could go either way as we have five 10-10 rounds but on our card AJ needs a knockdown to get a draw even. Both are connecting, first Usyk and now Joshua a bit more. Usyk backing Joshua up halfway thru round. And again. AJ needs a big shot, needs to take some chances which he's not doing. Gets in a a good right though, and another one. Great jab by Usyk. Usyk slowing down a bit but turns it back on. Swinging like mad at the end, has AJ on the ropes at the finish! Usyk clearly wins the round, and probably the fight. 10-9, Usyk 118-115.

If we split our 10-10 rounds that translates to 116-112 or 115-113 for Usyk. Making three "extreme" cards we have Usyk 118-110, Usyk 115.5-112.5, and Joshua 115-113 on a split decision.

Waiting for the decision.

Decision: 117-112, 116-112, 115-113 all for Usyk. Oleksandr Usyk remains undefeated and takes Joshua's belts. He will jump to #2 on our rankings, and becomes our interim Heavyweight Champion—pending results of Fury-Wilder III. Amazing.

Our 3-round margin was close to the 3.7 average margin of the judges. The 117-112 score probably included a 10-10 round adding an extra point. It went about as we expected in terms of being difficult to judge, but the result went to Usyk and unlike we thought, it seems unlikely to be a controversial result as Usyk came on strong in the final rounds to secure the win.

It looks like we have a 3rd man in the mix for best heavyweight in the world, and for the moment, it's between Usyk and Fury.