SportsRatings: College Football

2024-2025 Playoff "Final Four": Notre Dame still favorite, Ohio State very close #2

Ohio State's strong win over Oregon moved them very close to Notre Dame in terms of being the favorite to win it all, but the Irish win over Georgia—and the fact that they have an easier opponent next week—make them the overall odds favorite. Texas is a fairly distant third after two dull performances in the Playoff so far, and Penn State is a distant fourth at around 10%.

Committee Rankings and national title odds at "Final Four"

CFPC Team             Strength   Rec   Seed   Champ%  %chg
  1. Oregon                      13-1    1     0.0    -4.9
  2. Georgia                     11-3    2     0.0    -7.9
  3. Texas                3      13-2    5    20.3    -5.2
  4. Penn State           8      13-2    6    10.5    +2.3
  5. Notre Dame           2      13-1    7    35.4    +7.4
  6. Ohio State           1      12-2    8    33.8   +10.0
  7. Tennessee                   10-2    9     0.0     0.0
  8. Indiana                     11-1   10     0.0     0.0
  9. Boise St                    12-2    3     0.0    -0.3
 10. SMU                         11-3   11     0.0     0.0
 11. Alabama                      9-4   --     0.0         
 12. Arizona St                  11-3    4     0.0    -1.3

Notre Dame's odds jumped 7.4 percentage points after beating Georgia; our power rating expected an Irish win but the uncertainty is gone and Notre Dame is just over 35% to win it all. Ohio State was also expected to beat Oregon, but did so in solid fashion which gave them a bigger 10% boost; the Buckeyes played the best game of the Playoff in beating Tennessee 42-17 and the 3rd best in beating Oregon 42-21.

Texas, on the other hand, has had the worst two wins, beating Clemson at home by 14 and Arizona State in double overtime; the Longhorns' odds sink 5.2% to 20.3%. Penn State's 31-14 win over Boise State wasn't nearly as solid as their 38-10 crushing of SMU; their odds rise just slightly to 10.5%.

Oregon and Georgia never had high odds to win it all despite being the top two seeds. Our initial odds for the pair were 6.6% and 11.1%, and those fell to 4.9% and 7.9% once their opponents in the 2nd round were solidified. They were 9th and 8th in Strength at the start and are 9th and 10th now. Oregon does remain #1 in Success, which measures wins and losses; they still have the best résumé in the country, and they've split wins with Ohio State (#2 in Success).

The All-Division Strength power rating showed Ohio State very narrowly at #1 before the 2nd round and the Buckeyes have increased their margin to nearly a point:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Ohio State                 12-2   79.92   64.87 [  4]  -15.04 [  1]
  2. Notre Dame                 13-1   79.11   66.36 [  3]  -12.75 [  3]
  3. Texas                      13-2   77.30   62.79 [  9]  -14.51 [  2]
  ...
  8. Penn State                 13-2   71.91   60.72 [ 16]  -11.19 [  5]

Notre Dame is a close 2nd while Texas has dropped off a bit. The Longhorns remain #3 but they are a few points behind the favorites, hence their reduced odds. Texas has to play two teams slightly better than them most likely, while Notre Dame has an "easier" game to start with, which is why their odds of being national champ are higher than Ohio State's even as a "chalk" finish would—like last week's projection—have Ohio State beating Notre Dame. So far every game has followed the roadmap of the Strength power rating.

Penn State is far off the block at #8 in Strength, and in any scenario would have to beat two teams quite a bit better than them. They're 8 points behind Ohio State and lost to the Buckeyes by 7 points earlier in the year (in Happy Valley). 

So the best three teams made it to the Final Four, joined by the best team from the weakest bracket. The Nittany Lions had to play a decent SMU team (Strength #13) at home, and then a pretty weak Boise team (Strength #31). They did impress vs. SMU, but almost any other team in the Playoff would have been the favorite to come out of that bracket on top given home field in the first game (Arizona State and Clemson both would have been pick'em against SMU as the home team).

Offense, not defense, will win the National Title

Note that every team in the "Final Four" has a defense in the top 5; the difference is on offense, where Ohio State and Notre Dame are also in the top 5, while Texas is barely top 10 and Penn State well outside the top 10. In order to win it all Texas and Penn State will have to raise their bar on offense.

Looking ahead, the Strength power rating says Ohio State will beat Texas and Notre Dame will beat Penn State, and the oddsmakers agree: they have Ohio State by 6 and Notre Dame by 2, while we have Ohio State by 2 1/2 and Notre Dame by 7. If both win by a small margin, then Ohio State will be a 1 point favorite in the final; that is, our odds will shift to the Buckeyes once they have the Longhorns out of the way.

A Longhorn upset would keep Notre dame the national title favorite—provided Texas doesn't win by too much and tilt the power rating in their favor! Likewise a Notre Dame blowout win could push them ahead of the Buckeyes and keep them the favorite in the final game. Penn State would remain the underdog in the final game even if they blow out the Irish.

2024 National Title Odds at round of 8: Notre Dame takes over as favorite, Texas, Ohio State close behind

Notre Dame moved into the pole position among Playoff teams, replacing Texas as the overall favorite while Ohio State remained 3rd but improved their odds substantially while also replacing the Irish as #1 in Strength. In other words, if every game goes to plan, Ohio State will edge Notre Dame in the finals (probably in overtime) but considering every game left to be played, the Irish have the edge to be champions.

It's extremely close in the All-Division Strength ratings, with the Buckeyes just .02 ahead of the Irish:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Ohio State                 11-2   78.90   63.99 [  6]  -14.91 [  2]
  2. Notre Dame                 12-1   78.88   67.19 [  2]  -11.69 [  4]
  3. Texas                      12-2   78.33   63.13 [  9]  -15.20 [  1]

Texas is about a half-point behind, making things very tight. Of course, Ohio State and Texas are on an earlier collision course which helps the Irish.

Committee Rankings and national title odds at Round of 8

CFPC Team             Strength   Rec   Seed   Champ%  %chg 
  1. Oregon               9      13-0    1     4.9    -1.7
  2. Georgia              7      11-2    2     7.9    -3.2
  3. Texas                3      12-2    5    25.5    -0.5
  4. Penn State          10      12-2    6     8.2    +3.8
  5. Notre Dame           2      12-1    7    28.0    +7.8
  6. Ohio State           1      11-2    8    23.8    +9.2
  7. Tennessee                   10-3    9     0.0    -5.1
  8. Indiana                     11-2   10     0.0    -4.5
  9. Boise St            30      12-1    3     0.3    -0.4
 10. SMU                         11-3   11     0.0    -3.3
 11. Alabama                      9-3   --     0.0         
 12. Arizona St          16      11-2    4     1.3    -1.2

Notre Dame gained 7.8% mainly from getting a game out of the way; it's easier to win three games than to win four. Ohio State gained for the same reason but also from greatly outperforming expectations, beating Tennessee by 25 rather than 6 or 7 points. Texas met expectations against Clemson but Ohio State becoming a more likely opponent caused their odds to dip slightly, allowing Notre Dame to take over the top spot. As I've said a lot recently, people have been sleeping on the Irish since their early loss to Northern Illinois. And people will probably sleep on them all the way to the final game if they make it there.

What about Oregon and Georgia, the top two seeds? Oregon now is guaranteed to face Ohio State rather than an easier Tennessee team; that, along with the Buckeyes' increased rating makes the Ducks job harder in the rematch, which will be a neutral field this time. The Bulldogs didn't play but their Strength took a hit via Ohio State diminishing Tennessee. Even as they move up to #7 their odds of beating Notre Dame fell, as did their odds of beating Ohio State. And like Oregon, their opponent is now certain to be the tougher one: Oregon doesn't get Tennessee, Georgia doesn't get Indiana.

Thus Penn State moves ahead of both top seeds into 4th most likely to win it all. With SMU out of the way the Nittany Lions have Boise State (#30 in Strength) as their only roadblock to the final four. They'd be an underdog to both Georgia and Oregon, but both those teams have a very tough challenge to even getting to the final four. The Nittany Lions will be a 10 point favorite to beat the Broncos by our numbers. And they did increase their Strength rating by quite a bit by beating SMU by 28 points in what should have been a very close game by the numbers.

That leaves Boise State with a 0.3% chance to win it all. They'd have to beat Penn State, then either Georgia or Notre Dame, then very likely face another monster in the finals. It's true they almost beat Oregon at Oregon, but they'd have to do the equivalent three times to win it all.

Arizona State's odds are only slightly better at 1.3%. Beat Texas, then Oregon or Ohio State, then play again in the finals? Not much of a chance for three big upsets in a row.

Once again, the ASCII brackets, with Committee seed in front and Committee rank and Strength rank in parens:

5  Texas(3,3)---------------
                            |
                            |----------
                            |          |
4  Arizona St(12,16)--------           |
                                       |
                                       |-----------
                                       |           |
8  Ohio St(6,1)-------------           |           |
                            |          |           |
                            |----------            |
                            |                      |
1  Oregon(1,9)--------------                       |
                                                   |
                                                   |----------National Champ
                                                   |
6  Penn St(4,10)------------                       |
                            |                      |
                            |----------            |
                            |          |           |
3  Boise St(9,30)-----------           |           |
                                       |           |
                                       |-----------
                                       |           
7  Notre Dame(5,2)----------           |           
                            |          | 
                            |----------
                            |
2  Georgia(2,7)-------------

 

Easiest path remaining (by Committee seed):

1. Texas (15)
2. Penn State (12)
3. Oregon (11)
4. Georgia (10)
5. Notre Dame (7)
6. (tie) Boise St (7)
7. Ohio State (6)
8. (tie) Arizona St (6)

Texas has the best route if you go by Committee seed, facing the #12, #1, and #3 teams (if the best seeds win). Penn State's draw isn't bad either with the #9, #2, and #1. Then finally Oregon and Georgia, who should have he easiest path by design, are represented.

Easiest path remaining (by Strength):

1. Penn State (33)
2. Texas (19)
3. Notre Dame (18)
4. Ohio State (14)
5. Georgia (13)
6. (tie) Boise St (13)
7. Oregon (6)
8. (tie) Arizona St (6)

Here Penn State is the best off, facing a low-rated Boise State team before the real challenges begin. But top-seed Oregon faces the best team right away, then probably the #3 before the #2. In other words, they have to beat the three strongest teams. Texas also gets a break by facing ASU, while Notre Dame's lower bracket doesn't include anyone else in the top 5 in Strength. 

Strength seems to mean a bit less this year as there seems to be parity among the top 10, and week to week any team might look like the best or stumble (see Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc). Oregon is undefeated despite being only #9 in Strength, and Georgia has beaten Texas twice despite ranking lower in Strength. 

In the end, I think we got exactly the Final Eight we deserved. At least it's good that all the favorites won, and all proved they belonged. The process for making the brackets will almost certainly be revised for 2025. Until then let's see who wins this thing.

 

2024 National Title Odds at round of 12: Texas, Notre Dame have best odds

Here's the first cut at National Title Odds. Note that most of the top-Strength teams do not have a first-round bye, but it's not very important since they face a weak foe and play at home. For example, Texas and Notre Dame lead the odds with Ohio State in 3rd place, as these are the top 3 rated teams in Strength. Meanwhile 2-seed Georgia is only 4th and 1-seed Oregon is just 5th; they rank #8 and #9 in Strength respectively.

CFPC Team              Strength  Rec   Seed   Champ% 
  1. Oregon                9     13-0    1     6.6
  2. Georgia               8     11-2    2    11.1
  3. Texas                 2     11-2    5    26.0
  4. Penn State           14     11-2    6     4.4
  5. Notre Dame            1     11-1    7    20.2
  6. Ohio State            3     10-2    8    14.6
  7. Tennessee             7     10-2    9     5.1
  8. Indiana               6     11-1   10     4.5
  9. Boise St             31     12-1    3     0.7
 10. SMU                  13     11-2   11     3.3
 11. Alabama                      9-3   --     0.0 
 12. Arizona St           16     11-2    4     2.5
 13. Miami FL                    10-2   --     0.0 
 14. Mississippi                  9-3   --     0.0 
 15. South Carolina               9-3   --     0.0 
 16. Clemson              17     10-3   12     0.7

And due to their #31 Strength, 3-seed Boise State has just a 0.7% chance each to win the national title despite their bye. That is matched by 12-seed Clemson who is #17 in Strength and plays at Texas in the first round. Boise will face the Penn State - SMU winner in the 2nd round.

Here's what the brackets look like in one beautiful ASCII map, with their Committee rank and Strength in parens:

12 Clemson(16,17)--
                   |--------
5  Texas(3,2)------         |
                            |----------
                            |          |
    4 Arizona St(12,16)-----           |
                                       |
                                       |-----------
9 Tennessee(7,7)---                    |           |
                   |--------           |           |
8 Ohio St(6,3)-----         |          |           |
                            |----------            |
                            |                      |
    1 Oregon(1,9)-----------                       |
                                                   |
                                                   |----------National Champ
11 SMU(10,13)------                                |
                   |--------                       |
6 Penn St(4,14)----         |                      |
                            |----------            |
                            |          |           |
    3 Boise St(9,31)--------           |           |
                                       |           |
                                       |-----------
10 Indiana(8,6)----                    |           
                   |--------           |           
7 Notre Dame(5,1)--         |          | 
                            |----------
                            |
      2 Georgia(2,8)--------

So you can get an idea of how tough the competition is not based on seed but on Committee ranking and Strength, here are the paths for each of the 8 teams without byes:

By Committee rank:

 5 Texas       28
 6 Penn State  19
12 Clemson     15
11 SMU         13
 7 Notre Dame  10
 8 Ohio State   8
 9 Tennessee    7
10 Indiana      7

The total Committee rank gives a good estimate of how hard each team's path to the "Final Four" is; as it should be, Penn State and Texas have the easiest paths, and Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana roughly fall into line. The discrepancy is for the easier paths of Clemson and SMU. As 12- and 11-seed, the Tigers and Mustangs have a much easier 2nd round than the 7- through 10-seeded teams. They have to get past a really good team in the first round, but if they do they'll face a 4-seed ranked #12 by the Committee (Arizona State) or an 11-seed ranked #9.

It's even more explicit by Strength rating:

11 SMU         45
 6 Penn State  44 
 5 Texas       33
12 Clemson     18
 8 Ohio State  16
 7 Notre Dame  14
 9 Tennessee   12
10 Indiana      9

Now it looks like SMU got the best draw: #14 Penn State followed by #31 Boise State. They do play the first game on the road, but it's winnable.

But assuming Penn State defends their home field, they get the Broncos on a neutral field. So Penn State might have the best draw considering home field advantage.

Texas' draw still looks good, while Clemson's draw now doesn't look so great, only a bit better than the 7-10 seeds, and that's only because the 2nd game is friendlier; they actually have the 2nd toughest draw up front, Texas in Austin.

Either way, Indiana faces the worst situation, playing at #1 Strength Notre Dame, then if they win, Georgia, who is only #8 in Strength but is the 2-seed and has shown they can reach pretty high this season.

I think it's clear the NCAA is going to re-think it's policy of given the top 4 conference champs the byes automatically. Here we have the 9th best and 12th best teams getting a bye—or the 31st and 16th best by Strength—which is causing all these bracket imbalances. Being in an easy bracket is why our #2 team has the best odds to win it despite playing an extra game. The #1 and #3 teams play in the tougher brackets, and the weakest bracket by Strength has no team above 13th!

If you add up the seedings in the brackets, they look pretty even of course: 21, 18, 20, 19

But even added up by the Committee's real estimation of the teams it looks imbalanced: 31, 14, 23, 15. The 2nd and 4th bracket are clearly the toughest.

And by Strength it's even worse: 35, 19, 58, 15

All I know is, Texas and Penn State got a big break from not falling too far after their losses. The difference between being seeded 5 and 6 vs. 7 and 8 is huge. In fact, Texas and Penn State maybe got a big break from LOSING their title games. If I were Oregon, I'd swap places with Penn State in that bracket.  And maybe Georgia would be better off where Texas is, even having to play two games. Let's test that out:

CFP* Team              Strength  Rec   Seed   Champ% Chg% 
  1. Penn State           14     12-1    1     5.1   +0.7
  2. Texas                 2     12-1    2    25.1   -0.5
  3. Georgia               8     10-3    5    10.8   -0.3
  4. Oregon                9     12-1    6     6.3   -0.3
  5. Notre Dame            1     11-1    7    18.0   -2.2
  6. Ohio State            3     10-2    8    17.4   +2.8

Turns out it makes almost no difference. So maybe Oregon and Georgia shouldn't swap with Penn State and Texas, but the fact that it makes no difference means things are set up pretty wrong! Somehow both Texas and Georgia were hurt by swapping places (probability of winning isn't linear by Strength) so the SEC got the teams where they want them.

What does change are the odds for Notre Dame and Ohio State. Notre Dame gets a "harder" game vs. Texas, and Ohio State trades a game vs. a team that beat them (Oregon) for a game against a team they beat (Penn State). Notre Dame's odds go down by 2.2%, while Ohio State's go up by 2.8%.

Committee update: Little change from sunday

Hardly a change since 11/30/2024 as the Committee largely reflects the AP poll, which we used on Sunday to project the final top 25.

We show SMU with around a 2.7% chance of staying in with a loss, giving Alabama a 97.4% chance of making it (and Indiana somehow a 99.9% chance as they get passed by the Tide once in 1,000 trials).

 LW  Rnk Team             CFPC   Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon             1   *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.4   +1.1
  3   2. Texas              2   *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.2   +4.6
  5   3. Notre Dame         4    Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   25.2   +8.5
  6   4. Penn State         3    B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.9    3.6   +1.6
  4   5. Georgia            5    SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.8    6.3   -2.5
  1   6. Ohio State         6    B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   13.5  -11.6
  9   7. SMU                8   *ACC    11-1     62.6   -1.7    2.4   +1.1
  8   8. Tennessee          7    SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    5.6   +0.9
 11   9. Indiana            9    B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama           11    SEC     9-3     97.4  +12.1    7.8   -1.0
 12  11. Mississippi       13    SEC     9-3      0.0  -14.3    0.0   -1.5
  7  12. Miami FL          12    ACC    10-2      0.0  -92.2    0.0   -3.8
 13  13. Boise St          10   *MWC    11-1     62.8   -1.4    0.3    0.0
 15  14. South Carolina    14    SEC     9-3      0.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0
 16  15. Arizona St        15    B12    10-2     48.4  +14.1    0.5   +0.3
 19  16. Iowa St           16   *B12    10-2     51.6  +36.9    0.7   +0.5
 14  17. Brigham Young     18    B12    10-2      0.0  -45.0    0.0   -0.6
 18  18. Clemson           17    ACC     9-3     40.1  +38.5    0.7   +0.7
 24  19. Missouri          19    SEC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 22  20. Colorado          23    B12     9-3      0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 21  21. UNLV              20    MWC    10-2     37.2  +30.7    0.0    0.0
 25  22. Illinois          21    B10     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 40  23. Syracuse          22    ACC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 17  24. Tulane            --    AAc     9-3      0.0  -32.9    0.0   -0.5
 23  25. Army              24    AAc    10-1      0.0   -0.2    0.0    0.0

But this isn't really what we want to see. All these positions are "super-positions" of where some of the teams would be if they win and lose at a certain rate. Penn State, for example, comes in at an average of #4, split between the times they win (where they might be #1) and when they lose (where they might be around #8). Texas? Between #1 and #6. Oregon between #1 and #3. Georgia could be anywhere from #2 to #7, maybe even #9. Note that Arizona State and Iowa State remain #15 and #16 because it's such a coin flip between the two. So let's make things more concrete. First, we'll have SMU lose a close game and see how Alabama's odds change:

Looks like Alabama's odds fall to 93.3%. They most often miss when Georgia loses to Texas, which makes sense: will the Committee keep not just one 3-loss SEC teams in the Playoff, but two?

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 11   9. Indiana                 B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     93.3   +8.0    7.8   -1.0
  9  11. SMU                    *ACC    11-1      6.7  -57.6    0.1   -1.2

Ok that's interesting but what about all the other teams, where do they really finish? I'm not going to page through all of the possibilities between the five games (32 permutations) not to mention what if one team blows out the other (now that's about 4 results for each game instead of 2, making for 1024 possibilities). But here's what we see if the favorites win:

  1. Oregon                     13-0
  2. Texas                      12-1
  3. Notre Dame                 11-1
  4. SMU                        12-1
  5. Ohio State                 10-2
  6. Penn State                 11-2
  7. Tennessee                  10-2
  8. Georgia                    10-3
  9. Indiana                    11-1
 10. Boise St                   12-1
 11. Alabama                     9-3
 12. Mississippi                 9-3
 13. Miami FL                   10-2
 14. Iowa St                    11-2
 15. South Carolina              9-3
 16. Brigham Young              10-2
 17. Arizona St                 10-3
 18. Missouri                    9-3
 19. Clemson                     9-4
 20. Colorado                    9-3
 21. Illinois                    9-3
 22. Syracuse                    9-3
 23. UNLV                       10-3
 24. Tulane                     10-3
 25. Louisiana-Lafayette        11-2

Oregon of course is #1 and Texas remains #2, with Notre Dame moving into #3 while SMU takes the #4 spot at 12-1. Penn State falls to #6 just below Ohio State which makes sense as the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions. Georgia does fall below Tennessee when they beat the Vols so that might not happen. Also it's doubtful Ole Miss will pass Miami. The rest stays the same in the top ranks from the Committee's rankings. Then Iowa State moves up to #14, Clemson drops back a bit to #19, Tulane does come in at #24 with Army dropping out altogether, and Memphis replaced by Louisiana-Lafayette (who wins the Sun Belt). Memphis might just be #24 and Tulane #25 in that case, but we're not too worried about the whole top 25.

Now if all the favorites win, but SMU loses, the Mustangs end up #11 almost all the time, that's the key takeaway. The 6.7% is for all scenarios, and with this being the most common scenario that number is probably reduced quite a bit.

2024 week 14: Alabama in; Notre Dame the national title favorite?

With just the conference title games left the field is almost completely set: 9 teams are virtual locks and six more are playing for the last three spots.

With about 99% certainty Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana will make the Playoff. SMU or Clemson, Boise State or UNLV, and Arizona State or Iowa State will join.

For those last six contenders, it's pretty much win or remain out. Boise State, UNLV, Arizona State, Iowa State, and Clemson have to win. The only slight exception seems to be SMU, who could possibly lose a close game to Clemson and remain in. For that to happen, they'd have to stay ahead of either Indiana or Alabama, or hope for a blowout loss by Georgia or Penn State.

Projected Final Committee Rankings (11/30 pre-Committee meeting)

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon                 *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.6   +1.3
  3   2. Texas                  *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.7   +5.1
  5   3. Notre Dame              Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   24.1   +7.4
  6   4. Penn State              B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.8    3.1   +1.1
  4   5. Georgia                 SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.7    6.1   -2.7
  1   6. Ohio State              B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   14.0  -11.1
  8   7. Tennessee               SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    6.7   +2.0
  9   8. SMU                    *ACC    11-1     59.6   -4.7    2.3   +1.0
 10   9. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     99.9  +14.6    7.7   -1.1
 11  10. Indiana                 B10    11-1    >99.9  +23.0    5.1   +2.5

Alabama ranks 9th in our simulation but has the "lowest" Playoff odds of 99.9%, while Indiana shows >99.9%. Last week Alabama's odds were 85.3%, which seemed high to some but the Tide had many paths to the Playoff, namely a loss by Tennessee at Vanderbilt (didn't happen), Georgia losing to Georgia Tech (damn near happened), or a loss by SMU (nope) or Miami (ding ding ding!). If SMU does lose, they could remain in if Penn State or Georgia gets blown out. In that case, a 2-loss Penn State might fall below Indiana, and/or a 3-loss Georgia could fall below Alabama (whom they lost to earlier in the year). It takes a lot, and SMU's odds of staying in with a loss track to about 0.1% so it's highly unlikely. For reference here, ESPN's FPI has Alabama at just 30.1% odds (!) and SMU at 69.2%, with opponent Clemson at 41.7%, which implies more than 10% leeway for SMU if they lose.

Boise State and Iowa State are favored in their conference title games, with the Big 12 race almost a coin flip. UNLV's playoff odds took a big jump (+30.3%), but why? Weren't they heavily favored to beat Nevada and make the Mountain West title game? They were, but Tulane was in their way last week—even with a MWC title they didn't pass an 11-2 Tulane most of the time. Tulane's loss cleared UNLV's path to the Playoff if the Rebels beat Boise State.

Miami is the big loser this week, obviously; the Canes went from 92.2% to 0.0%. Without a signature win, it will be easy for the Committee to drop them out of range, but remember that the Committee has consistently ranked them higher than the AP, not that it will probably matter. Mississippi's odds on the other hand went to 0.0 as they needed even more chaos to make the field, and it appears South Carolina will pass them them despite Ole Miss's 27-3 regular season win over the Gamecocks. For the last six weeks we've been projecting a top 25 South Carolina finish without a Playoff spot, and it looks like they might be the "first team out", with no path to get in—unless, I suppose, the Committee throws us a surprise on Tuesday and has the Gamecocks ranked ahead of the Tide (they lost to Alabama 27-25 in Tuscaloosa). 

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 15  11. South Carolina          SEC     9-3      0.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0
 13  12. Boise St               *MWC    11-1     63.2   -1.0    0.2   -0.1
 12  13. Mississippi             SEC     9-3      0.0  -14.3    0.0   -1.5
 16  14. Arizona St              B12    10-2     48.3  +14.0    0.5   +0.3
  7  15. Miami FL                ACC    10-2      0.0  -92.2    0.0   -3.8
 19  16. Iowa St                *B12    10-2     51.7  +37.0    0.6   +0.4
 14  17. Brigham Young           B12    10-2      0.0  -45.0    0.0   -0.6
 22  18. Colorado                B12     9-3      0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 18  19. Clemson                 ACC     9-3     40.5  +38.9    0.4   +0.4
 24  20. Missouri                SEC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 25  21. Illinois                B10     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 21  22. UNLV                    MWC    10-2     36.8  +30.3   <0.1    0.0
 40  23. Syracuse                ACC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 17  24. Tulane                 *AAc     9-3      0.0  -32.9    0.0   -0.5
 23  25. Army                    AAc    10-1      0.0   -0.2    0.0    0.0

Army has the home field edge against Tulane in the American title game but we favor the Green Wave over the Black Knights. If they'd beaten Memphis there would be some interesting intrigue as to whether the Big 12 would get a team in the Playoff at all, but that matter is closed now.

Let's look again at the top of the list again for Championship odds.

Notre Dame is #1 at 24.1%. The Irish were largely written off early in the season after losing to Northern Illinois, with many saying that was the end of their Playoff hopes! But now they're playing like the best team in the nation and are a Playoff lock. They are a slight favorite over #2 Texas, but that's with Texas' game against Georgia pending. If the Longhorns win that, their Championship odds will rocket as they'll have a first-round bye, which Notre Dame can't get. Every team here that can get a bye—Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, and SMU—could see their Championship odds nearly double with a conference title (they won't quite double since partial odds of having a bye are already figured into the championship odds).

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon                 *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.6   +1.3
  3   2. Texas                  *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.7   +5.1
  5   3. Notre Dame              Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   24.1   +7.4
  6   4. Penn State              B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.8    3.1   +1.1
  4   5. Georgia                 SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.7    6.1   -2.7
  1   6. Ohio State              B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   14.0  -11.1
  8   7. Tennessee               SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    6.7   +2.0
  9   8. SMU                    *ACC    11-1     59.6   -4.7    2.3   +1.0
 10   9. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     99.9  +14.6    7.7   -1.1
 11  10. Indiana                 B10    11-1    >99.9  +23.0    5.1   +2.5

Teams here that can't get a bye—Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana—will show roughly the same odds next week. Ohio State went from a >50% chance of a bye to a 0% chance and their odds fell accordingly, from first place at 25.1% to third place at 14.0%. Georgia's odds fell from 8.8% to 6.1% due to their lackluster performance against Georgia Tech, and Alabama's mild win over Auburn didn't go them any favors either. 

Though SMU's Playoff odds fell—due to low odds of staying in the field with a title game loss—their Championship odds almost doubled with the solid chance of getting a Playoff bye. And Penn State, who didn't look like they'd be in the Big Ten title game, added over 1.0% to their Champ odds due to making it there. The jump for Texas and Notre Dame mostly came from Ohio State's drop from the first-round-bye perch. Oregon, meanwhile, continues to fare relatively poorly in the Strength power rating and very often faces Georgia in their first game—or Ohio State, as they would be the current 8 and 9 seeds!