SportsRatings: College Football

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 5: Shake-up with TCU, Alabama, Clemson gaining, Oklahoma, Georgia, Oregon falling

Every week looks like a do-over now: last week's breakout stars, Florida State and Minnesota, both bit the dust while Clemson rebounded and Alabama replaced Georgia at the top of the list. Whew.

First, the final four: These are the spots that count, and Georgia's close call at Missouri demoted them to #3 in our power rating, which made them the loser of the SEC championship game to new #1 Alabama. With Ohio State holding at #2 and a super-charged TCU at #3, the final spot comes down to the 12-1 Bulldogs and a 12-1 ACC champ Clemson. The latter probably gets the nod due to the conference championship. Last year Georgia was in the same position—12-1 with no conference title—but they were considered the best team; in this scenario they won't be.

Big news in the Big 12: TCU was a mild-mannered and mysterious 3-0 team last week at #22 before they crushed former #4 Oklahoma, sending the Sooners sprawling to #25. As we've mentioned, the Big Twelve has a glut of "good" to "very good" teams, and any "great" team can run the table—but they have to be very consistent. Oklahoma looked like that team but wasn't. Now TCU looks like that team—but after only 3 games vs. FBS competition. Another Big 12 game that upset things was Oklahoma State's win over Baylor, which knocked the Bears off the chart and down from 9-3 to 4-8! Three 1-point wins turned into losses for Baylor, so they can still turn things around but it's looking like they won't see the Committee's top 25.

SportsRatings Projected Final Standings for the College Football Playoff: post-week 5 (10/2/2022)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj  %Odds  %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 3   1. Alabama        5-0  13-0  77.3  +26.6 
 2   2. Ohio State     5-0  13-0  75.8   +0.1 
22   3. TCU            4-0  13-0  67.9  +67.1 
12   4. Clemson        5-0  12-1  43.3  +36.7  @NotreDame
 1   5. Georgia        5-0  12-1  35.8  -41.3  Alabama
 7   6. Michigan       5-0  11-1  15.6   +3.6  =OhioSt
13   7. Utah           4-1  11-2  12.1   +6.0  @FLA 29-26, @Oregon
 9   8. USC            5-0  11-1  10.6   +0.5  @Utah
18   9. NC State       4-1  11-1  10.2   +7.3  @Clemson 30-20
14  10. Penn State     5-0  10-2   7.5   +2.9  @Michigan, OhioSt
 5  11. Oregon         4-1  11-2   7.0  -30.9  @Georgia 49-3, =Utah
new 12. Wake Forest    4-1  10-2   6.5   +6.5  Clemson OT, @NCstate
new 13. Mississippi    5-0  10-2   6.0   +6.0  @LSU, Alabama
11  14. Washington     4-1  10-2   5.6   -1.5  @UCLA 40-32, @Oregon
new 15. Illinois       4-1  10-3   4.0   +4.0  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
new 16. LSU            4-1   9-3   3.5   +3.5  FSU 24-23, Alabama, @Ark
10  17. Tennessee      4-0   9-3   3.0   -4.4  @LSU, Alabama, @Georgia
15  18. Notre Dame     2-2   9-3   2.5   -1.6  @OhioSt 21-10, Marsh 26-21, @USC
new 19. UCLA           5-0   9-3   2.1   +2.1  Utah, @Oregon, USC
new 20. Maryland       4-1   9-3   1.6   +1.6  @Mich 34-27, @PennSt, OhioSt
 8  21. Minnesota      4-1   9-3   1.1   -9.5  @Purd 20-10, @Illinois, @PennSt
25  22. South Alabama  4-1  12-1   0.6   +0.4  @UCLA 32-31
new 23. Texas          3-2   9-4   0.3   +0.3  Alabama 20-19, TTech OT, TCU, =TCU
23  24. Kansas St      4-1   9-3   0.2   -0.4  Tulane 17-10, @TCU, Texas
 4  25. Oklahoma       3-2   9-3   0.1  -45.2  KState 41-34, @TCU 55-24, =Texas

Dropped out: #6 Florida St (8-4), #16 BYU (9-3), #17 Pittsburgh (6-6), #19 Texas A&M (7-5), #20 Cincinnati (10-3), #21 Baylor (4-8), #24 Wisconsin (4-8)

ACC shakeup: Clemson was #12 last week, projected to be 10-2 and to beat NC State. They won, 30-20, which doesn't seem like it should elevate the Tigers back into the Playoff picture but it did—mainly because Florida State lost to Wake Forest, knocking the Seminoles right back down to 8-4 and off the charts completely. That game put the Deacons in at #12 and gave an extra future win to the Tigers who now only have a projected loss to Notre Dame that just won't go away. It's been there since the pre-season projections—but Clemson's back in the top four regardless. And despite losing, NC State also benefitted from Wake's win as they now "beat" FSU and are back to an 11-1 projection, up 9 spots to #9. Another ACC team didn't benefit from last week's action: Pittsburgh, formerly #17 at 10-2 and making the ACC championship game, fell to Georgia Tech and now projects to a woeful 6-6.

Business as usual in the Big Ten, but....Minnesota was another darling of last week's projection, and that one looked a lot more solid than FSU did but the Gophers lost at Purdue 20-10 and fell from #8 to #21. Instead of running the table and making the Big Ten title game, they look to be a pedestrian 9-3. Illinois was the big winner, crushing Wisconsin 34-10 and knocking the Badgers out of the rankings (and to a 4-8 finish? Wow). Now the #15 Illini are the team to beat in the Big Ten West, and we have them losing only twice more, once in the Big Ten title game. New #20 Maryland is the latest team to get a boost from crushing Michigan State. The Big Ten East remained consistent, with #2 Ohio State, #6 Michigan, and #10 Penn State all winning and seeing their Playoff odds increase slightly.

Pac-12 still looking for a bid: Washington's loss to UCLA didn't hurt the Huskies as much as we would have thought, mostly because their was uncertainly that they could really go 11-1 and they were 3rd in line for the Pac-12 title game tiebreaker anyway. All it did was introduce another possible interloper in the Bruins, who will probably lose only to the top three teams in the conference. Who are the top three? In no order, Utah, Oregon, and USC. As Utah's power rating gets reconciled between the Bayesian and Strength versions they pick up a win in the Pac-12 title game over Oregon, but leaving the Pac-12 champ with 2 losses. USC may only have a loss to Utah but that keeps them out of the title game. And Oregon was never a great shot due to the huge Georgia loss. The only sure thing for the Pac-12 would be to have either USC or UCLA go undefeated; other than that and they may be left out again.

Some independent thoughts: Speaking of UCLA, the emergence of the Bruins lifted South Alabama to triple their odds of making the playoff (from 0.2% to 0.6%). It might seem impossible for a Sun Belt team to make the final four but the conference has played some good games this season. That said, even an undefeated Sun Belt team has long odds, and the Jaguars already have a loss. But a 1-point loss to UCLA suddenly looks good if UCLA goes 13-0. If that happens South Alabama will be...closer to the top four than we have them now, but probably still well outside it. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. For now it's safe to say the better UCLA does, the better it is for South Alabama, and vice versa.

But the Jaguars are doing better than BYU who fell out this week, the Cougars looking to be a dull 9-3, "sort-of" a Power Five team, sort-of not. That takes away one of Notre Dame's bigger future wins and the Irish slip a few spots, already dogged by two "real" losses. And after just getting past Tulsa, Cincinnati is back to losing twice to SMU in our book, dumping them from the projection, while SMU already has 2 losses and didn't make the cut. Check back next week as the two Cincy/SMU games tend to toggle. Another team that almost made the grade is San Jose State, which now has a decent chance to go 12-1 but not enough juice yet to make the grade in the top 25. As more Power Five teams take losses we will see the Spartans ranked if they continue winning and looking good.

Is there SEC outside Alabama and Georgia?  For those outside the top two, it's a long shot which is why no other SEC teams make the top 10. Mississippi roars back into the picture at #13. They were expected to beat Kentucky, and a lot more convincingly than they did, but Texas A&M's big loss to Mississippi State put the Aggies in arrears and now Ole Miss is sporting a solid 10-2 projection. They still "lose" the future class with LSU, who jumps in at #16 after picking up new "wins" over A&M and even #17 Tennessee, who drops 7 spots due to only being 9-3 now. The Volunteers didn't even play this week and they lost more than half their odds of making the Playoff! On the bright side, they're one of only 11 teams on the board who completely control their own destiny, having no actual losses.

Come back next week when the "final" order is scrambled up yet again!

2022 Week 5 Bayesian/Strength rankings

Bayesian/Strength update of pre-season ratings based on results through 10/02/2022 (week 5). Projected records based on resultant ratings.

Ratings are 50% Bayesian (update of pre-season ratings) and 50% Strength ratings (no pre-season bias)

Rnk  Team                   Rating   Bayes  Str   Rec   Proj
  1. Alabama                 38.85     2     1    5-0   12-0
  2. Ohio State              35.87     1     2    5-0   12-0
  3. Georgia                 32.53     3     3    5-0   12-0
  4. TCU                     26.55     7     4    4-0   12-0
  5. Michigan                25.58     4     7    5-0   11-1
  6. Texas                   22.20    12     5    3-2    9-3
  7. Tennessee               21.20     6    16    4-0    9-3
  8. Mississippi St          20.54    11     8    4-1    8-4
  9. Clemson                 20.04    13    11    5-0   11-1
 10. Utah                    19.53     5    32    4-1   10-2
 11. Mississippi             19.29    18    10    5-0   10-2
 12. Penn State              19.05    16    12    5-0   10-2
 13. Cincinnati              18.32    15    19    4-1   10-2
 14. Minnesota               18.27     9    25    4-1    9-3
 15. Kansas St               17.93    20    17    4-1    9-3
 16. LSU                     17.85    22    15    4-1    9-3
 17. Notre Dame              17.80    10    27    2-2    9-3
 18. Illinois                17.50    32     9    4-1   10-2
 19. Maryland                17.40    26    13    4-1    9-3
 20. Oklahoma                17.31    21    21    3-2    9-3
 21. Oregon                  17.21     8    31    4-1   11-1
 22. SMU                     16.82    47     6    2-2   10-2
 23. Southern Cal            16.58    23    22    5-0   11-1
 24. Wake Forest             16.16    31    20    4-1   10-2
 25. Washington              15.69    38    14    4-1   10-2
 26. Purdue                  15.03    17    34    3-2    8-4
 27. Kentucky                14.93    24    28    4-1    8-4
 28. Oklahoma St             14.90    14    39    4-0    7-5
 29. North Carolina St       14.66    19    33    4-1   11-1
 30. Arkansas                14.39    28    30    3-2    8-4
 31. UCLA                    13.00    44    24    5-0    9-3
 32. Baylor                  12.56    25    42    3-2    4-8
 33. Iowa St                 12.46    43    29    3-2    5-7
 34. Florida St              12.35    34    37    4-1    8-4
 35. Iowa                    12.35    33    38    3-2    6-6
 36. Kansas                  11.91    58    18    5-0    6-6
 37. Washington St           11.19    40    35    4-1    8-4
 38. Texas A&M               10.96    27    53    3-2    7-5
 39. Syracuse                10.65    46    36    5-0    8-4
 40. James Madison           10.23    59    26    4-0   10-1
 41. West Virginia           10.01    45    41    2-3    3-9
 42. Texas Tech               9.93    42    43    3-2    6-6
 43. North Carolina           9.88    35    54    4-1    8-4
 44. Missouri                 9.43    48    40    2-3    5-7
 45. Michigan St              9.23    39    55    2-3    5-7
 46. Wisconsin                8.98    41    52    2-3    4-8
 47. Central Florida          8.43    50    46    3-1    8-4
 48. Brigham Young            8.34    37    64    4-1    9-3
 49. Florida                  8.08    30    73    3-2    6-6
 50. Appalachian St           7.86    51    49    3-2    9-3
 51. Louisville               7.74    36    69    2-3    5-7
 52. Oregon St                7.39    29    80    3-2    7-5
 53. Pittsburgh               6.64    52    60    3-2    6-6
 54. Duke                     6.45    87    23    4-1    8-4
 55. California               6.25    60    50    3-2    5-7
 56. Auburn                   5.90    54    65    3-2    4-8
 57. Tulane                   5.24    63    57    4-1    8-4
 58. South Carolina           5.24    53    72    3-2    4-8
 59. Western Kentucky         5.23    66    47    3-2    9-4
 60. South Alabama            5.18    72    45    4-1   11-1
 61. Memphis                  4.79    77    44    4-1    7-5
 62. East Carolina            4.55    57    67    3-2    6-6
 63. Marshall                 4.50    73    48    3-2    9-3
 64. Alabama-Birmingham       4.50    71    51    2-2    8-4
 65. Air Force                4.45    61    63    4-1   10-2
 66. Troy                     4.05    68    56    3-2    9-3
 67. Miami FL                 3.86    49    83    2-2    7-5
 68. Texas-San Antonio        3.56    56    76    3-2    9-3
 69. Liberty                  3.48    67    59    4-1    9-3
 70. Houston                  2.91    65    70    2-3    6-6
 71. UNLV                     2.28    81    58    4-1    9-3
 72. Tulsa                    2.28    78    66    2-3    6-6
 73. San Jose St              2.10    75    68    3-1   11-1
 74. Stanford                 2.08    64    77    1-3    2-10
 75. Indiana                  1.04    85    62    3-2    4-8
 76. Nebraska                 0.58    62    89    2-3    3-9
 77. Arizona                  0.47    76    81    3-2    4-8
 78. Boise St                 0.18    55   100    3-2    8-4
 79. Vanderbilt              -0.07    96    61    3-2    3-9
 80. Northwestern            -0.61    91    71    1-4    1-11
 81. Virginia                -0.82    86    74    2-3    5-7
 82. Toledo                  -1.38    74    91    3-2    8-4
 83. Coastal Carolina        -1.39    92    75    5-0    8-4
 84. Southern Miss           -1.51    79    88    2-2    7-5
 85. Kent St                 -2.20    94    78    2-3    6-6
 86. Rutgers                 -3.04    83    93    3-2    3-9
 87. Northern Illinois       -3.48    95    85    1-4    8-4
 88. Arkansas St             -3.53   105    79    2-3    4-8
 89. Georgia Southern        -4.14   100    86    3-2    3-9
 90. Middle Tennessee St     -4.37    89    95    3-2    8-4
 91. Arizona St              -4.42    70   108    1-4    2-10
 92. Miami OH                -4.61   106    84    2-3    8-4
 93. Buffalo                 -4.83   110    82    2-3    8-4
 94. Florida Atlantic        -5.15    98    92    2-4    5-7
 95. Louisiana-Lafayette     -5.16    93    97    2-3    5-7
 96. Fresno St               -5.24    69   112    1-3    6-6
 97. North Texas             -5.30   102    90    3-3    6-6
 98. Navy                    -5.55   109    87    1-3    3-9
 99. Rice                    -5.81    99    96    3-2    6-6
100. Old Dominion            -6.38   101    98    2-3    3-9
101. Georgia Tech            -6.44    97   102    2-3    2-10
102. Georgia St              -7.03    84   111    1-4    4-8
103. Virginia Tech           -7.23    90   110    2-3    3-9
104. Army                    -7.38    82   114    1-3    5-7
105. Boston College          -7.46    80   116    2-3    3-9
106. Wyoming                 -7.47   115    94    3-3    6-6
107. Central Michigan        -7.63   108    99    1-4    7-5
108. San Diego St            -8.45    88   115    2-3    4-8
109. Utah St                 -8.96   111   103    1-4    4-8
110. Bowling Green           -9.27   112   105    2-3    3-9
111. New Mexico              -9.77   113   106    2-3    6-6
112. Ohio U.                 -9.89   117   101    2-3    4-8
113. Louisiana Tech         -10.14   114   109    1-3    4-8
114. UTEP                   -11.39   103   118    3-3    4-8
115. Western Michigan       -11.85   104   120    1-4    3-9
116. Ball St                -13.38   116   117    3-2    6-6
117. Temple                 -13.49   124   104    2-3    3-9
118. Nevada                 -13.57   120   113    2-3    4-8
119. South Florida          -13.74   107   123    1-4    1-11
120. Louisiana-Monroe       -13.96   123   107    2-3    3-9
121. Colorado               -14.50   118   119    0-5    0-12
122. Eastern Michigan       -15.41   119   121    3-2    4-8
123. Connecticut            -17.50   121   125    2-4    4-8
124. Colorado St            -17.61   122   122    0-4    1-11
125. Texas St-San Marcos    -19.70   127   124    2-3    2-10
126. UNC-Charlotte          -20.50   126   126    1-5    2-10
127. Akron                  -20.84   125   127    1-4    1-11
128. Massachusetts          -27.99   128   128    1-4    2-10
129. New Mexico St          -30.05   129   129    1-5    2-10
130. Hawai`i                -32.73   130   130    1-4    1-12
131. Florida Int'l          -39.28   131   131    2-2    2-10

 

2022 Week 5 Preview: Oklahoma vs. TCU, Clemson vs. NC State

Week Four Five is when things should start getting serious. But across the country, big matchups are still relatively few and far between.

The biggest game on our radar is #4 Oklahoma at #22 TCU, a game that could quickly end most of Oklahoma's hopes and make the Horned Frogs a contender. The Sooners' loss last week was a blow but not a fatal one as they still outrank a slew of Big Twelve hopefuls including TCU, #21 Baylor, and #22 Kansas State. A TCU win would put Oklahoma in the same "wannabe" category, and weighed down by two losses. TCU is a bit of a mystery still, having played just two games against FBS opponents, one of those being hapless Colorado. Oklahoma is about a touchdown favorite and I expect an even tougher challenge than that. But Baylor has a tough challenge too, being only a 2 point favorite vs. 3-0 Oklahoma State, and Kansas State doesn't have a gimme itself vs. Texas Tech. The Big 12 has a lot of parity and it may keep the conference out of the Playoff again.

The other clash between top 25 Playoff Contenders is #12 Clemson and #18 NC State. Just a few weeks ago this was a much bigger game—it looked like NC State's only loss, and the one that prevented then from winning the ACC and going 13-0. Since then, NC State's forecast has faded to include 3 losses, while Clemson looks like a 10-2 team also possibly shut out of the conference title game. The winner here has the inside track to challenge #6 FSU as the new ACC favorite. The Seminoles have a "prove it" game against Wake Forest, as in, "prove you deserve to be forecast to finish 12-1!" Their road to the ACC title is full of razor-close wins so at any point we might see their odds drop, which is an opening for either Clemson or NC State to take advantage.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings with projected record & Line for next opponent

Rnk Team            Rec   Proj  Line   Opponent 
 1. Georgia         4-0   13-0  -28.0  @ Missouri
 2. Ohio State      4-0   13-0  -40.5  Rutgers
 3. Alabama         4-0   12-1  -17.5  @ Arkansas
 4. Oklahoma        3-1   12-1   -6.5  @ #22 TCU
 5. Oregon          3-1   12-1  -17.0  Stanford
 6. Florida St      4-0   12-1   -7.0  Wake Forest
 7. Michigan        4-0   11-1  -11.0  @ Iowa
 8. Minnesota       4-0   12-1  -12.5  Purdue
 9. USC             4-0   11-1  -25.5  Arizona St
10. Tennessee       4-0   10-2  -----  idle
11. Washington      4-0   11-1   -2.5  @ UCLA
12. Clemson         4-0   10-2   -6.5  #18 NC State
13. Utah            3-1   10-3  -10.5  Oregon St
14. Penn State      4-0    9-3  -26.5  Northwestern
15. Notre Dame      2-2    9-3  -----  idle
16. BYU             3-1   10-2  -24.5  Utah St
17. Pittsburgh      3-1   10-3  -22.0  Georgia Tech
18. NC State        4-0    9-3   +6.5  @ #12 Clemson
19. Texas A&M       3-1    9-3   +4.0  @ Miss State
20. Cincinnati      3-1   12-1   -9.5  @ Tulsa
21. Baylor          3-1    9-4   -2.0  Oklahoma St
22. TCU             3-0    9-3   +6.5  #4 Oklahoma
23. Kansas St       3-1    9-3   -8.0  Texas Tech
24. Wisconsin       2-2    9-3   -7.0  Illinois
25. South Alabama   3-1   12-1   -9.0  @ UL-Lafayette

Other close games include #11 Washington at UCLA. Both are 4-0 but the Huskies became darlings of our projection recently while UCLA fell to a 7-5 outlook. The Bruins could help reverse that with a win Saturday. Washington has the lowest projection of any 11-1 team partly due to uncertainty they can pull it off, and also lack of big wins if they do. As well as having #5 Oregon and #9 USC project to 11-1, with #13 Utah currently the tiebreaker winner to play in the conference title game. Unlike the parity-ridden Big 12, the Pac-12 has a lot of separation between the haves and have-nots, which gives them several good candidates for the Playoff—provided that one comes out of the pack relatively unscathed. For that, Washington and USC are the conference's best hope as they are still unbeaten. #13 Utah has a loss to Florida and faces tough Oregon State next. #5 Oregon has a terrible loss on the books so it might be best for the conference if they lost to Stanford, though that would be a considerable upset.

Texas A&M is a slight underdog to Mississippi State, and their 9-3 projection includes that as a loss. In other words, the Aggies can improve their ranking with a win over the Bulldogs, who are highly-rated but projected 8-4 vs. a very tough schedule. Ultimately A&M still controls their fate due to future games with Alabama and then, if they've done really well, Georgia. Both the Tide and the Bulldogs have road games where they're strongly favored, basically jockeying for position in the top three of any ranking system.

The Big Ten became more interesting with the surge of #8 Minnesota. The Gophers look to be for real and they can solidify that against Purdue. #7 Michigan, like Minnesota, looks capable of sweeping their schedule outside of #3 Ohio State. But first they have to win at Iowa, something that hasn't been easy for them in a while. The spread looks about right from our vantage point—not easy, but a solid, low-scoring win. #14 Penn State is quietly waiting for their chance in the big games, while #24 Wisconsin is already a long-shot at 2-2 and faces another potential upstart team in Illinois, who ranks #12 in Strength right now! We'll see if that holds up.

Outside the Power Five: our only interlopers are #20 Cincinnati and #25 South Alabama, both projected to go 12-1 but facing fairly solid challenges at Tulsa and Louisiana-Lafayette this weekend. The odds look about right for both—neither is a gimme. After outperforming all season, the lines might have finally caught up to the Jaguars; they would have been hefty underdogs had this game been played in week one.

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 4: FSU, Minnesota suddenly contenders

After a more-mild-than-wild week 4 where most of the top teams underperformed, a few key developments created a couple of big new contenders, and some shifting in the Pac-12 left three teams pegged to finish with just one loss.

First things first, one team fell out of the top four, and it wasn't Oklahoma who lost to Kansas State. Instead it was Clemson, who beat Wake Forest in double overtime to remain unbeaten, but now looks likely to finish just 10-2 with a "new" loss to FSU. The Tigers fell to #12, down 33%. They rank just #20 in the power rating used for this projection.

Replacing the Tigers is Alabama, while Oklahoma hangs on at #4 though dropping 25% in odds. Oregon is #5 and Florida State is #6, both projected 12-1 conference champs which normally insures a bid, but both have a fatal flaw. Oregon's is their big loss to Georgia, while FSU wouldn't pass the "eye test." Alabama's projected loss to Georgia is much closer—barely a field goal—and Oklahoma's loss to Kansas State wasn't terrible. Meanwhile FSU rates as a borderline top 25 team; only their easy schedule makes a 12-1 run look likely and they will have to survive several close calls to get there.

While Georgia still takes the top spot, for the first time they aren't #1 in our power rating; now Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship. But our Bayesian power rating disagrees with our FBS-only Strength and the All-Divisions Strength, with Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama the #1 teams in each. 

SportsRatings Projected Final Standings for the College Football Playoff: post-week 4 (9/25/2022):

LW   Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  %Odds %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 1    1. Georgia         4-0  13-0  77.1  +2.1 
 2    2. Ohio State      4-0  13-0  75.7  +2.0 
 5    3. Alabama         4-0  12-1  50.8 +18.1  @Georgia
 3    4. Oklahoma        3-1  12-1  45.3 -24.9  KansasSt 41-34
 6    5. Oregon          3-1  12-1  37.9 +14.7  @Georgia 49-3
new   6. Florida St      4-0  12-1  27.9 +27.9  @NC State
 7    7. Michigan        4-0  11-1  12.0  +0.6  @OhioSt
new   8. Minnesota       4-0  12-1  10.6 +10.6  =OhioSt
22    9. USC             4-0  11-1  10.1  +9.2  @Utah 
10   10. Tennessee       4-0  10-2   7.5  +0.3  Alabama, @Georgia
17   11. Washington      4-0  11-1   7.0  +3.6  @Oregon
 4   12. Clemson         4-0  10-2   6.6 -33.4  @FSU, @NotreDame
12   13. Utah            3-1  10-3   6.2  -0.2  @Fla 29-26, @Ore, =Ore
14   14. Penn State      4-0   9-3   4.6  -1.0  @Mich, Minn, OhioSt
18   15. Notre Dame      2-2   9-3   4.2  +1.2  @OhioSt 21-10, Marshall 26-21, @USC
19   16. BYU             3-1  10-2   3.7  +1.1  @Oregon 41-20, =NotreDame
16   17. Pittsburgh      3-1  10-3   3.3  -0.5  Tenn OT, @Lou, =FSU
 9   18. NC State        4-0   9-3   2.9  -6.8  @Clem, @Syr, @Lou
new  19. Texas A&M       3-1   9-3   2.4  +2.4  AppSt 17-14, @MissSt, @Alabama
24   20. Cincinnati      3-1  12-1   1.4  +1.2  @Arkansas 31-24
21   21. Baylor          3-1   9-4   1.0  -0.3  @BYU OT, @Okla, @Texas, =Okla 
23   22. TCU             3-0   9-3   0.8  +0.3  Oklahoma, @Texas, @Baylor
new  23. Kansas St       3-1   9-3   0.6  +0.6  Tulane 17-10, @TCU, @Baylor
25   24. Wisconsin       2-2   9-3   0.4  +0.3  WashSt 17-14, @OhioSt 52-21, Minn
new  25. South Alabama   3-1  12-1   0.2  +0.2  @UCLA 32-31

Dropped out: #8 Mississippi (8-4); #11 Texas (8-4); #13 Oregon St (8-4); #15 Miami FL (7-5); #20 Kentucky (8-4)

In addition to Florida State, who was projected at just 8-4 last week, #8 Minnesota made a huge debut. The Gophers were projected 9-3 last week but a 34-7 demolition of Michigan State added to their already-impressive resume to push their projection to 12-0 for the regular season! They're still not close to Ohio State so for now they're 12-1 but within striking distance of the Playoff.

And the Pac-12 candidates kept moving up, too. USC wasn't dominant against Oregon State but the Strength power rating loves them and that helped move them to #9 at 11-1, with Washington also set to be 11-1. Both however lose the Pac-12 tiebreaker to Utah to get in the conference championship game against Oregon. But that's how close things are, there are four teams vying to be 12-1 conference champs. Part of that is because the league is pretty weak this year, and the good teams are separating themselves from the bad ones.

Speaking of weak leagues...the ACC took a big hit with ex-#15 Miami's embarrassing loss to MTSU. Underperformances by Clemson and #17 Pitt allowed FSU to emerge as the conference champ, but that could change. NC State is pegged to beat FSU at home but still slipped to 9-3 with added losses to Syracuse and Louisville.

Other teams that dropped out include former #8 Mississippi, who struggled to beat Tulsa and now projects to just 8-4; #11 Texas who dropped an overtime game at Texas Tech to stand 2-2; Oregon State, who played well against USC but fell short; and #20 Kentucky, who beat Northern Illinois 31-23, weakness that dropped their projected record down a notch to 8-4.

More new entries: Texas A&M is back on the chart after a mild upset of Arkansas propped them back up to 9-3; Kansas State of course got a boost from beating Oklahoma—the Wildcats were looking like a 6-6 team after losing to Tulane and suddenly they are battling TCU and Baylor for the 2nd slot in the championship game. And South Alabama continues their impressive run of overperformance by beating Louisiana Tech 38-14. With their schedule 12-1 is not at all out of the question but won't get them much of a ranking. But it should get them in the final top 25, if their only loss is on the road by 1 point to UCLA.

2022 Week 4 Baysian/Strength ratings

Bayesian/Strength update of pre-season ratings based on results through 9/24/2022 (week 4). Projected records based on resultant ratings.

Ratings are 75% Bayesian update of pre-season ratings and 25% Strength ratings (no pre-season bias)

Rnk  Team                   Rating   Bayes  Str   Rec    Proj
  1. Ohio State              37.55     1     3    4-0    12-0 
  2. Georgia                 36.89     2     1    4-0    12-0 
  3. Alabama                 35.81     3     2    4-0    12-0 
  4. Michigan                25.74     4     7    4-0    11-1 
  5. Minnesota               25.10     5     6    4-0    12-0 
  6. Tennessee               22.03     7    17    4-0    10-2 
  7. Oklahoma                21.63     8    14    3-1    11-1 
  8. Penn State              20.40    10    21    4-0     9-3 
  9. Southern Cal            20.34    24     4    4-0    11-1 
 10. Oregon                  20.27     9    26    3-1    11-1 
 11. Texas                   19.39    13     9    2-2     8-4 
 12. Cincinnati              19.31    12    15    3-1    11-1 
 13. Utah                    18.76     6    64    3-1    10-2 
 14. Notre Dame              18.69    11    27    2-2     9-3 
 15. Mississippi St          18.19    18    13    3-1     8-4 
 16. Mississippi             18.16    14    19    4-0     8-4 
 17. LSU                     18.10    23     8    3-1     7-5 
 18. TCU                     17.32    27    11    3-0     9-3 
 19. Washington              17.02    34     5    4-0    11-1 
 20. Clemson                 16.61    15    36    4-0    10-2 
 21. Oregon St               16.58    21    22    3-1     8-4 
 22. Kansas St               16.37    19    28    3-1     9-3 
 23. Wisconsin               16.12    26    23    2-2     9-3 
 24. Florida St              15.85    22    29    4-0    11-1 
 25. Baylor                  15.74    17    40    3-1     9-3 
 26. Arkansas                15.59    28    24    3-1     8-4 
 27. North Carolina St       15.54    16    47    4-0     9-3 
 28. Texas A&M               14.87    20    44    3-1     9-3 
 29. Maryland                14.22    37    18    3-1     8-4 
 30. Kentucky                13.58    32    35    4-0     8-4 
 31. Brigham Young           13.37    29    49    3-1    10-2 
 32. Pittsburgh              13.10    35    31    3-1    10-2 
 33. Louisville              12.99    30    50    2-2     8-4 
 34. Iowa                    12.51    31    55    3-1     5-7 
 35. Michigan St             12.41    36    41    2-2     4-8 
 36. Syracuse                12.13    38    34    4-0     7-5 
 37. Oklahoma St             11.74    25    81    3-0     7-5 
 38. Purdue                  11.63    33    59    2-2     6-6 
 39. West Virginia           11.34    42    30    2-2     2-10
 40. SMU                     11.28    45    16    2-2     9-3 
 41. Illinois                11.23    49    12    3-1     8-4 
 42. Iowa St                 11.03    39    42    3-1     6-6 
 43. Wake Forest             10.92    41    38    3-1     8-4 
 44. UCLA                     9.67    46    32    4-0     7-5 
 45. James Madison            9.26    56    10    3-0    10-1 
 46. Washington St            9.22    51    33    3-1     7-5 
 47. Texas Tech               8.73    43    61    3-1     5-7 
 48. Florida                  8.55    40    73    2-2     6-6 
 49. California               8.13    53    37    3-1     6-6 
 50. Air Force                8.00    52    43    3-1    11-1 
 51. North Carolina           7.68    44    70    3-1     7-5 
 52. Central Florida          7.52    50    57    3-1     9-3 
 53. South Carolina           7.13    48    65    2-2     5-7 
 54. Kansas                   7.12    61    20    4-0     4-8 
 55. Miami FL                 6.43    47    71    2-2     7-5 
 56. Fresno St                6.42    55    46    1-2    10-2 
 57. Western Kentucky         5.58    58    45    3-1    10-3 
 58. Appalachian St           5.17    60    54    2-2     9-3 
 59. Stanford                 5.08    70    25    1-2     2-10
 60. Alabama-Birmingham       4.22    65    52    2-1     9-3 
 61. Auburn                   3.72    54    91    3-1     4-8 
 62. Marshall                 3.07    69    63    2-2     9-3 
 63. South Alabama            2.64    71    51    3-1    11-1 
 64. Missouri                 2.55    59    84    2-2     4-8 
 65. Tulane                   2.42    64    78    3-1     6-6 
 66. Houston                  2.38    67    76    2-2     7-5 
 67. East Carolina            2.36    68    69    2-2     6-6 
 68. Texas-San Antonio        2.10    63    83    2-2     8-4 
 69. Boise St                 2.01    57    92    2-2     7-5 
 70. Army                     1.80    62    85    1-2     7-5 
 71. Memphis                  1.76    74    58    3-1     7-5 
 72. Virginia                 1.53    72    67    2-2     6-6 
 73. Indiana                  1.09    86    39    3-1     4-8 
 74. UNLV                     0.77    79    56    3-1     7-5 
 75. Tulsa                    0.52    76    62    2-2     6-6 
 76. Kent St                 -0.22    88    48    1-3     8-4 
 77. Liberty                 -0.66    78    75    3-1     9-3 
 78. Arizona                 -0.78    75    79    2-2     4-8 
 79. Troy                    -0.83    82    72    2-2     8-4 
 80. Middle Tennessee St     -0.89    83    68    3-1     9-3 
 81. Nebraska                -1.28    66   110    1-3     3-9 
 82. Coastal Carolina        -1.56    90    60    4-0     8-4 
 83. Southern Miss           -2.16    77    90    2-2     7-5 
 84. San Jose St             -2.36    84    86    2-1     8-4 
 85. Virginia Tech           -2.84    81    95    2-2     3-9 
 86. Vanderbilt              -3.24    95    66    3-2     3-9 
 87. Northern Illinois       -3.38    93    74    1-3     9-3 
 88. Toledo                  -3.50    80   102    2-2     9-3 
 89. Florida Atlantic        -3.53    87    88    2-3     6-6 
 90. Duke                    -4.21   102    53    3-1     6-6 
 91. Old Dominion            -4.60    92    87    2-2     4-8 
 92. Arizona St              -4.89    73   123    1-3     2-10
 93. San Diego St            -4.91    85   107    2-2     6-6 
 94. Wyoming                 -5.85   100    77    3-2     8-4 
 95. Rutgers                 -5.93    89   111    3-1     3-9 
 96. Louisiana-Lafayette     -6.29    94   101    2-2     5-7 
 97. Arkansas St             -6.88   105    82    1-3     4-8 
 98. Central Michigan        -7.15    98    93    1-3     7-5 
 99. Miami OH                -7.28   101    89    2-2     6-6 
100. Georgia Southern        -7.67    99    98    3-1     3-9 
101. Buffalo                 -7.77   108    80    1-3     5-7 
102. Boston College          -7.98    91   121    1-3     2-10
103. Northwestern            -8.20   103    97    1-3     1-11
104. Rice                    -8.39   106    94    2-2     5-7 
105. South Florida           -8.82    96   115    1-3     2-10
106. UTEP                    -9.02    97   112    2-3     4-8 
107. Bowling Green           -9.08   107   100    1-3     6-6 
108. Georgia St             -10.30   104   113    0-4     2-10
109. North Texas            -10.55   112    99    2-3     5-7 
110. New Mexico             -10.68   111   103    2-2     4-8 
111. Navy                   -11.75   117    96    1-2     2-10 
112. Western Michigan       -12.12   110   116    0-4     3-9 
113. Louisiana Tech         -12.34   109   118    1-3     4-8 
114. Utah St                -12.55   116   104    1-3     4-8 
115. Colorado               -12.63   115   109    0-4     0-12
116. Georgia Tech           -13.13   113   119    1-3     1-11
117. Eastern Michigan       -13.70   114   120    2-2     4-8 
118. Nevada                 -14.37   119   106    2-3     4-8 
119. Ohio U.                -15.00   120   108    2-2     3-9 
120. Ball St                -15.27   118   122    2-2     5-7 
121. Louisiana-Monroe       -15.91   122   105    2-2     3-9 
122. Colorado St            -16.59   121   114    0-4     1-11
123. Temple                 -18.82   123   117    2-2     2-10
124. UNC-Charlotte          -20.51   125   125    1-4     2-10
125. Connecticut            -20.87   126   126    1-4     3-9 
126. Akron                  -21.31   124   127    1-3     1-11
127. New Mexico St          -22.08   128   124    1-4     4-8 
128. Texas St-San Marcos    -22.64   127   128    2-2     2-10
129. Massachusetts          -31.14   129   130    1-3     1-11
130. Hawai`i                -31.70   130   129    1-4     1-12
131. Florida Int'l          -48.46   131   131    1-2     1-11