All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 30-5
Conference: ACC
vs.
UCF Knights
Seed: 9
Record: 24-8
Conference: American
Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Location: Columbia, SC
Region: East
Channel: CBS
Will Zion Williamson dunk on 7-6" Tacko Fall? Fall says no way. And while we're at it, who will win advance to the Sweet Sixteen? Johnny Dawkins' Knights take on his former coach's team.
Duke UCF
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #44
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #39
Offense: #6 Offense: #55
Defense: #5 Defense: #32
BPI: #3 BPI: #42
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #55
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #18 Tempo: #313
Schedule Strength: #6 Schedule Strength: #78
Consistency: #266 Consistency: #233
Consist. Modifier: #3 Consist. Modifier: #45
2nd half season: #7 2nd half season: #42
Last 6 games: #20 Last 6 games: #70
Road Strength: #2 Road Strength: #44
Injury Modifier: #1 Injury Modifier: #47
Duke ranks #2 in Strength, #3 in Pomeroy, #3 in BPI, and #2 in LRMC. Then why is everyone picking Duke to win the title? These power ratings don't take into account the games where Zion Williamson was missing from Duke's lineup. Check that: the BPI claims to do just that. But if they really did a good job of it, Duke would be #1. Our Injury Modifier rating count just the games where Duke was at full strength, and in that ranking Duke is a clear #1.
Next up to try to take down the Blue Devils: The UFC Knights, with 7-6" center Tacko Fall. They're obviously outmatched everywhere else, which is why people are focusing on the one thing Duke doesn't have: a freakishly giant center.
Season overview: Duke
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, (14)Yale+33, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, (11)St. John's+30, @(1)Virginia+10, @(7)Louisville+2, @(8)Syracuse+10, =(8)Syracuse+12, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10, =(16)North Dakota St.+23
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-2, (8)Syracuse-OT, (1)North Carolina-16, @(4)Virginia Tech-5, @(1)North Carolina-9
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: For some reason Duke was not the consensus #1 pre-season pick, despite having the #1, #2, and #3 recruits by some estimates. In game one Duke showed that they were THE team to beat, by crushing Kentucky 118-84. Duke shot to #1 in the polls.
There were bound to be growing pains with a team of freshmen, and they lost to eventual 1-seed Gonzaga by a bucket. They handed 5-seed Auburn and 3-Texas Tech their first losses. They lost to Syracuse when missing two starters, then cleaned out the ACC, beating 1-seed Virginia twice and engineering a 23-point comeback to beat Louisville before the showdown with North Carolina. We all know what happened there: the team fell apart without Zion Williamson, and Duke went into a slump, losing to Virginia Tech, almost losing to lowly Wake Forest, and losing to UNC again before the ship was righted with Zion's return. The three games they won in tournament play were solid and consistent, just what you want to see before entering the Big Dance.
Duke has weaknesses; they are a very bad 3-point shooting team at 30.2%. They're so good at 2-pointers (4th in the nation) that they rarely need to shoot the three. When they did against Virginia they shot the lights out, but that was probably a freak occurrence. On defense they're #4 in both blocks and steals. They're a great offensive rebounding team, but not great at free throws.
Zion Williamson isn't just Duke's most valuable player, he is the best in college basketball by a wide margin. In our Injury Modifier ratings, Duke is 3 points better when counting only the games where he's in the lineup; in the small sample (6 games) where he's gone, Duke played 13 points worse and slips to #18 in the nation. Williamson is imposing at 6' 7" and 285 pounds conservatively, and averages 22.1 ppg and 8.9 rebounds. And he's not even the leading scorer; that title goes to RJ Barrett at 22.9 (and 7.5 boards). Cam Reddish rounds out the double digit scorers at 13.7 ppg. Center Marques Bolden didn't play in the ACC tournament but returned for the first game.
RJ Barrett led with 26 points (and 14 rebounds) in the 85-62 win over North Dakota State, while Zion added 25.
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Season overview: UCF
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (14)Northern Kentucky+13, (11)Temple+5, @(3)Houston+5, (7)Cincinnati+3, =(8)VCU+15
- Losses to tournament teams (3): (3)Houston-9, @(7)Cincinnati-5, @(11)Temple-5
- Other losses (5): Florida Atlantic-1, @Missouri-OT, @Wichita St.-8, @Memphis-20, @Memphis-24
Overview: UCF won a lot of games early but never looked that incredible. They beat 14-seed Northern Kentucky and play-in 11-seed Temple. They lost to Houston and Cincinnati as expected. But then, late in the season, things changed. First, they beat SMU 95-48, a stunning blowout like nothing they'd achieved all season. Then, in game 28, they upset Houston on the road...and followed that by beating Cincinnati, too. The Knights finally had some signature wins under their belt and...they promptly lost their next two games, falling to Temple and then getting beat by Memphis 79-55. Did they short burst of success go to their heads? Within a 2 week span they played their best games and their worst game, leaving people guessing as to what comes next.
Guards BJ Taylor (16.0) and Aubrey Dawkins (15.2) are the team's leading scorers, but their main attraction is 7 foot 6 inch center Tacko Fall. Fall scores in low double digits and garners 7.3 rebounds per game, as well as 2.5 blocks (11th in nation). One weird thing: UCF gets to the line a lot (#2 in the nation per attempt) but shoots only 64.5% from the charity stripe.
UCF rolled over VCU 73-58 behind Taylor's 15 points and Fall's 18 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: The Zion vs. Tacko Fall hype will provide an interesting sideshow, but realistically Fall is nowhere near the same type of player, nor near as good. Years ago, Tyler Hansbrough of North Carolina made a point to dunk on 7-7" Kenny George. But it doesn't seem like Zion Williamson is going to care about that; he's not a competitive person in that sense. He wants his team to win rather than wanting to vanquish his opponent the way someone like Michael Jordan wants.
Of course Fall will cause problems for Duke's 2-point shooting, and that's critical because Duke's is a pretty bad 3-point shooting team (not counting the 2nd Virginia game). But Fall's skill set is fairly limited; he has 'moments' more than he has a complete game. Duke will try to run on offense so that Fall is less of a factor, and luckily they have center Marques Bolden back, too. And as much trouble as Fall can create for Duke, Zion Williamson can create a lot more trouble for the Knights.
Vegas Line:
Duke by 13
Power rating: spread
Duke by 14.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Duke: 85.1%
UCF: 14.9%
A double digit win is expected for the Blue Devils. 9-seeds have a low probability historically to beat 1-seeds, just 9%; we give UFC a generous 15%.
Bottom line: Fall will create problems for Duke, but Zion will create more problems for UCF.
Final prediction: Duke 85, UFC 65
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
