SportsRatings: College Basketball

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big East

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Saturday, April 1
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Channel: CBS

The two best teams in the tournament are on this side of the bracket.

UConn Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2        Strength:          #33
Median: #6 Median: #27
Markov: #1 Markov: #13
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #22
   Offense: #3 Offense: #5
   Defense: #11                     Defense: #104
BPI:               #3 BPI:               #26
LRMC:    #4 LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS: #35 SOS: #64
Tempo (Offense): #239 Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency:       #292 Consistency:       #178

2nd half season:   #2 2nd half season:   #19
NCAA Tournament: #1(#1) NCAA Tournament: #2(#2)

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Title Game: #6 Title Game: NA

UConn and Miami have played the best basketball of any teams in the tournament, #1 and #2 of the 4 teams left and also #1 and #2 of all tournament teams, period. But it's not very close: UConn has been about 10 points(!) better than the Hurricanes in those four games. And that dominance shows up in the full-season stats, too: UConn is now #2 in Strength while Miami is still just #33. The Huskies are up to #1 in Pomeroy while Miami has yet to crack the top 20. It's #3 to #26 in the BPI. Of course UConn started at #6, #4, and #6 in those ratings, and Miami started at #48, #40, and #36 so the 'Canes have jumped 15, 18, and 10 spots. But they really haven't gained ground on the Huskies. Miami's biggest jump is in our Markov implementation, where they've gone from #31 to #13. UConn is now the #1 team there, up from #4 (the LRMC doesn't update after Selection Sunday).

Miami's offense is now top 5 in Pomeroy but their defense has yet to crack the top 100. Say goodbye to those endless KenPom "factoids" posted on Twitter about how "no team has made the Final Four without a top 25 defense" (or top 50, and usually citing post-tournament figures). Now they'll be "out of 84 Final Four teams, only one has had a defense worse than #100." The relevant number is #133, which is Miami's pre-tournament defensive efficiency ranking, and the worst prior was actually #126 by 2011 VCU. Since VCU's defense ended up #78, it doesn't get cited as being >100 as it should, but Miami might still get both records—worst Selection Sunday and end-of-season defense.

UConn meanwhile has the offense and defense ratings we're accustomed to seeing from a winning 1-seed, not a horrible mis-seeded 4-seed. And of the four teams left, the Huskies are the only ones who made the MegaScreen's cut to be a Runner-up. They got screened out of the Winner's circle due to having no NCAA tournament wins the last 3 times out. That's right—every single winner from 1985 to the present has always won a tournament game in the past three tournaments. If UConn wins it all, that goes out the door. If Miami wins it all, then obviously the Defensive Efficiency screen gets a big adjustment (the winner has never had a worse Selection Sunday Pomeroy defense than #25. That's the case where the #25 is still relevant—for now.

Miami also violates 5 other screens for being runner-up, so if they beat UConn there will be adjustments all over, mostly related to their weak pre-tourney Strength. And the worst defense of a runner-up has been #69 by 2011 Butler—same year VCU set the (previous) low bar for defensive efficiency in the Final Four.

Season overview: Connecticut

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23, =(3)Gonzaga+28
Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament said yes, and it's impossible to argue after the Arkansas and Gonzaga games, their best efforts of the season period.

6-9 forward Adam Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas. And in case you thought they couldn't beat Gonzaga even worse than Arkansas, you'd be wrong: the Huskies thrashed the Zags 82-54, holding Drew Timme to 12 points while Hawkins had 20.

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Season overview: Miami

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16, =(1)Houston+14, =(2)Texas+7
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Houston+14, =(2)Texas+7
Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.

Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points. They topped that by upsetting 1-seed Houston 89-75 as Pack scored 26 points. After beating the 1-seed they took care of the 2-seed as well with a late run that erased a double-digit deficit. Jordan Miller had 27 points with 7 of 7 FG shooting and 13 of 13 from the free throw line.

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Game Analysis: Like I noted above, these teams are playing the best of any two teams in the tournament, but UConn is far and away ahead of Miami. The Huskies are playing as well as any team during the 64+ team era over the first four games. Only Villanova in 2018 won all their games by double digits, and so far the Huskies are playing 7 points better than those Wildcats. They have the potential to be perhaps the best NCAA tournament team of the 64-team era, even if they won't get credit for it due to not facing a top 2 seed the whole time.

But UConn has had trouble with consistency this season. Mostly that's due to a mid-season lull where they lost 6 out of 8 games. It started right when the Big East season started, so maybe teams familiar with the Huskies were able to beat them, or they didn't have the same attitude against familiar opponents that they did against non-conference foes? Whatever the cause, the Huskies were playing pretty bad there for a while. And if a team ever plays bad, that bad play can come back to bite them.

The same could be said of Miami, though, as the Canes suffered some pretty bad losses themselves, right up to the end of the season. They've played great during the tournament and their defense has been a lot better, but like UConn if they fall back to their old habits even just a little, they suddenly aren't very good any more.

So the question is: which team keeps things rolling? Miami never looked like a Final Four team this year, while UConn looked like the #1 team early on. They've been much better than the Canes all season and especially during the tournament. Miami's defensive weakness is their biggest problem, particularly their poor shooting defense.

But Miami has won despite it because of their offense. They shoot the ball very well, rebound well, and shoot 78% from the line. Trouble is, UConn defends both the 2 and 3 point shot very well, and rebounds well on defense. They block shots, too (#25 in the nation). They're a good matchup for Miami's offense.

And the Husky offense is now #3 in efficiency. They're #2 in rebounding while Miami is poor in defensive rebounding. And they shoot 76% themselves. The only advantage Miami has when UConn has the ball is steals, potentially.

Miam's offense has become even better over the tournament, and their defense has improved quite a bit. But in the same span, UConn has improved even more. Both offenses are elite now, but while Miami is trying to make their defense less of a liability, UConn's defense is becoming national title worthy.

Vegas Line:

UConn by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by 8.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UConn: 78%
Miami: 22%

Vegas has a pretty slim line for this game compared to our power rating, which has UConn by 8 or 9, and gives the Huskies a 78% chances to win based on game performance comparisons. 4-seed have played 5-seeds a lot, of course, but only once in the Final Four, and the 4-seed won. But in the 2nd round it's a very common matchup: 76 times total, with the 4-seed winning 42 or 55%. That means UConn is far ahead of the normal expectation, which is not surprising given their placing in the various power ratings.

Using just the 4-game sample in the tournament, UConn wins 87.5% of the 16 cross-comparisons, and wins by 10.3 points.

Bottom line: Miami is playing like a Final Four team, but UConn is playing like a team that could win the tournament in any year.

Final prediction: UConn 82, Miami 72

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 28, 2023 at 08:29 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) San Diego State vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 31-6
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 35-3
Conference: C-USA

Date: Saturday, April 1
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Channel: CBS

This is for all the mid-Major marbles: the Mountain West's best team and Conference USA's best team.

San Diego State Florida Atlantic

Power Ratings

Strength:          #19      Strength:          #23
Median: #17 Median: #20
Markov: #15 Markov: #16
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense: #75 Offense: #24
   Defense: #4                     Defense: #29
BPI:               #15 BPI:               #33
LRMC:    #17 LRMC:              #16

Other Measures:

SOS: #54 SOS: #106
Tempo (Offense): #168 Tempo (Offense): #95
Consistency:       #65 Consistency:       #118

2nd half season:   #17 2nd half season:   #30
NCAA Tournament: #3(#5) NCAA Tournament: #4(#28)

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Title Game: NA Title Game: NA

Neither team ranks like a Final Four contender but they are pretty similar to each other, with San Diego State holding a small lead in each power rating with a one-spot difference in the LRMC—and that's a Selection Sunday ranking, too. Interestingly our Markov formula has the Aztecs ahead by just one spot, too.

One interesting stat is Pomeroy's numbers for San Diego State. Most teams that make the Final Four see both offense and defense get better—FAU has improved from #31 to #24 on Offense, and from #35 to #29 on Defense—but San Diego State's offense has gotten worse, from #67 to #74. Their defense started at #10 and is now #4, so it's pretty clear they made the Final Four with their play on defense and not offense.

The BPI situation is interesting, too, with SDSU improving from #24 to #15 while FAU started at #34 and has only nudged up to #33. Meanwhile in Strength the Owls have improved from #29 to #23 and in Pomeroy from #22 to #17. Why the BPI has resisted FAU's charms I don't know except that they only beat #30 BPI Memphis by a point, #260 Fairleigh Dickinson by 8, and #31 K-State by 3, and the 7-point win over #4 Tennessee didn't offset that. Makes some sense, but 3 of the 4 teams they beat, all on neutral court, are still ahead of them.

FAU plays a pretty fast offensive tempo, not so fast that it clashes with SDSU's average tempo on offense. But the Aztecs play a "slow" defensive tempo, shutting down teams for most of the shot clock on average—so the Owls will have a challenge keeping the pace quick.

So far in the tournament San Diego State is playing the 3rd best of the 4 survivors, FAU 4th. But it's a bigger difference when we include all teams' last 4 games—there's quite a gap between the #5 Aztecs and the #28 Owls. No wonder FAU hasn't moved up much in the BPI.

The MegaScreen: Both teams rated as possible Final Four teams, but both were screened out of the Championship Game. San Diego State wasn't rated as a possible runner-up due to their Selection Sunday Pomeroy offense ranking of #67. Florida Atlantic was screened out at the same level for three reason: simply being a 9-seed (no 9-seed has made the final game); having no wins in the last 3 NCAA tournaments; and for their Selection Sunday BPI of #34 being just barely below the qualifying limit. So no matter what happens there will be some tweaks to the MegaScreen to cast a wider net for the title game. That's what a mad March Madness does.

Season overview: San Diego State

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23, =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1
Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
Other losses (1): New Mexico-9

Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the regular season 20-3. Now at the Elite Eight they've finally won 7 in a row.

The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16 while point guard Darion Trammell had 21 points in the huge upset of 1-seed Alabama. Lamont Butler had 18 as the Aztecs made the Final Four by beating Creighton, holding the Bluejays to 56 points.

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Season overview: Florida Atlantic

Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8, =(4)Tennessee+7, =(3)Kansas St.+3
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(4)Tennessee+7, =(3)Kansas St.+3
Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (0): None
Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 pre-Dance games are next-level.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70. FAU got their biggest win of the year by far—and one of the biggest in the program's history—by beating Tennessee 62-55 behind Davis' 9 of 10 free throw shooting (15 points total). Balanced scoring offset 30 points by K-State's Markquis Nowell as Alijah Martin's 17 led four in double digits to beat the Wildcats 79-76.

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Game Analysis: These are obviously both surprise teams to make the Final Four but it goes beyond that. San Diego State is winning completely with defense as their offensive efficiency has actually slid during the tournament. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic is getting by with narrow wins and weaker opponents. The Owls beat a 16-seed, won two ore games by 4 points total. Their one impressive win was over a very wounded Tennessee team.

FAU is top 25 on offense but San Diego State is #4 on defense. The Aztecs hold opponents to the 2nd lowest 3-point shooting in the nation, but their 2-point defense is surprisingly mediocre (#149) and the Owls may be able to exploit that—if they modify their style which is very 3-point heavy.

San Diego State has a similar problem when on offense: they're up against a better defense. And FAU's defensive percentages are better than SDSU's shooting percentages on both 2 and 3-point field goals.

So while it seems like FAU has an opening on offense and San Diego State might struggle, remember that these stats comparisons aren't adjusted for opposition (other than Pomeroy's efficiency rankings). San Diego State has played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, so the numbers are a bit skewed toward FAU. And San Diego State's defense has been playing even better lately. So while the Aztecs will no doubt struggle on offense, so will the Owls. It might be a very low-scoring game.

Vegas Line:

San Diego State by 2

Power rating: spread

San Diego State by 0.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

San Diego State: 53.1%
Florida Atlantic: 46.9%

5-seeds and 9-seeds have never met in the Final Four, and only three times in the Sweet Sixteen, with the 9-seed winning 2 of the 3. Not a lot to go by, and this one looks like pretty much a tossup of two overachieving teams. When we look at tournament play only, SDSU wins 81% of the time, though, by an average of 8 points.

Bottom line: San Diego State has gotten by with terrible play on offense while Florida Atlantic has gotten by with pretty pedestrian play overall for a Final Four team. The Aztecs are playing next-level defense however and that might be the deciding factor.

Final prediction: San Diego State 67, Florida Atlantic 59

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 27, 2023 at 08:39 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 28-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Sunday, March 26
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS

Texas vs. Miami would have been a great football game in 1983, 1993, or 2003, but it's worth a trip to the Final Four in 2023.

Texas Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6        Strength:          #33
Median: #8 Median: #26
Markov: #5 Markov: #15
Pomeroy:           #5             Pomeroy:           #26
   Offense: #15 Offense: #6
   Defense: #10                     Defense: #104
BPI:               #6 BPI:               #31
LRMC:    #6 LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS: #8 SOS: #77
Tempo (Offense): #60    Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency:       #246 Consistency:       #99
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #59

2nd half season:   #4 2nd half season:   #29
NCAA Tournament: #4 NCAA Tournament: #2

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #4 Winner: NA
Final Four: #7 Final Four: NA

It's easy to see which team is overperforming to make the Elite Eight. Texas has the look of a 2-seed in every way, and their great balance on offense and defense—top 15 in both categories—is the profile of an NCAA tournament champion. Miami, despite their solid wins recently, ranks mid-20s to low-30s in the power ratings (save a #15 appearance in Markov) and is still saddled with a sub-100 ranking in defensive efficiency.

But only this game matters, and in the tournament so far Miami has been the more impressive of the two. Of course, they had to be in order to beat 1-seed Houston. In reality both teams won two games by double digits, which is all you can hope for, and each had a fairly close call with an inferior team (Penn State, and Drake). So it's hard to really use those 3 games to definitively say who has performed better.

Miami's terrible defense score screened them out of Final Four consideration by the MegaScreen on Selection Sunday, while Texas passed all the screens up to the winner's circle—the only team left to make the final cut.

Season overview: Texas

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20, =(10)Penn St.+5, =(3)Xavier+12
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, =(3)Xavier+12
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7

Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.

Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points. Dylan Disu made 14 of 20 shots for 28 points as the Longhorns held on to top Penn State, 71-66. Texas reached the Elite Eight with a win over Xavier, 83-71, as the Longhorns took control in the first half; five players scored all but one point led by Tyrese Hunter's 19.

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Season overview: Miami

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16, =(1)Houston+14
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)Houston+14
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.

Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points. They topped that by upsetting 1-seed Houston 89-75 as Pack scored 26 points.

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Game Analysis: Miami's defense continues to defy history, breaking into the Elite Eight with a shot at the Final Four. Worse defenses have made the Elite Eight so things aren't out of whack yet, but no defense this bad has made the Final Four in during the existence of Ken Pomeroy's site (and I'm using pre-conference figures, not post-tournament like most people pointlessly cite). It doesn't matter that Miami's defense has improved to #104 over the last three games, it's the starting value that counts for the historical record.

But if Miami is indeed suddenly playing much better defense, then it doesn't matter for the purposes of picking this game. Miami allowed 56, 69, and 75 against Drake, Indiana, and Houston, with expected values of 73, 79, and 76, an average reduction of 9.33 points, which would make Miami's defense the #15 defense in the country (approximately) during the tournament so far. That's good enough to compete with anyone, but has there really been this sudden improvement? Or is this just a small sample of games where Miami has played very well overall?

On offense Miami is unquestionably good and has been for the whole season. When they have the ball it's a battle of top ten teams and essentially a stalemate, though Miami has stronger rebounding relatively.

When Texas has the ball it's either a mismatch (by full-season stats) or another even battle (over the last few games). In the mismatch scenario, Texas particularly has an edge inside the arc where they shoot very well and Miami defends poorly. Over the last 3 games Miami's 2-point defense has been exceptional: 47%, which would put them around #50 instead of #240 where they rank for all games.

Vegas Line:

Texas by 3 1/2

Power rating: spread

Texas by 7.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Texas: 68.4%
Miami: 31.6%

This is where recent play really starts to get worked into the spread: the Elite Eight. After three tournament games any team that's here has "proven" themselves and what they did before the tournament matters less. For the Strength power rating the whole season is considered and Texas is 7 points better and is a 68% favorite. For the 3 games of the tournament, Miami has been 4.3 points better. Vegas nearly adds the two together to get a 3.5 point spread.

2-seeds have faced 5-seeds five times and 4 of 5 times the 5-seed has won. The only win for the 2-seed happened last year when Villanova beat Houston. So history is on Miami's side in that small sample.

Bottom line: At some point Miami's defensive deficiency has to be exploited, right? I've had Miami losing every round and they keep winning. But I've had Texas winning every round and they keep winning too. Something's gotta give when I pick the Longhorns here.

Final prediction: Texas 78, Miami 75

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 25, 2023 at 10:30 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) San Diego State vs. (6) Creighton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 30-6
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 24-12
Conference: Big East

Date: Sunday, March 26
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: CBS

The 2nd 5-seed vs. 6-seed matchup in the 64+ team era.

San Diego St Creighton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #19      Strength:          #10
Median: #17 Median: #12
Markov: #14 Markov: #11
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #12
   Offense: #70 Offense: #22
   Defense: #4                     Defense: #14
BPI:               #15 BPI:               #10
LRMC:    #17 LRMC:              #14

Other Measures:

SOS: #59 SOS: #10
Tempo (Offense): #171 Tempo (Offense): #133
Consistency:       #56 Consistency:       #154
Str + Reliability: #16 Str + Reliability: #7
Str + Potential: #48 Str + Potential: #16

2nd half season:   #17 2nd half season:   #6
NCAA Tournament: #3 of 8 NCAA Tournament: #5 of 8

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #9 Final Four: NA

Creighton has a slight edge in all the power ratings, generally falling at #10 or just below, while the Aztecs are in the mid-teens. The starkest differences are on offense and defense where SDSU is an "extreme" team that ranks very well in one area (defense, in this case) but not very well in the other (offense). Creighton is more balanced, so each team will have the edge when they are playing defense.

The Bluejays have been a solid top ten team in gameplay since early January, but for the 3 games of the tournament so far San Diego State is better ranking #3 of the remaining 8 while Creighton is #5. The MegaScreen screened Creighton out of Final Four contention before the tournament started due to their 6-game losing streak, while SDSU was #9 in Final Four consideration—pretty good for a 5-seed which should be #17 to #20 naturally. But the Aztecs didn't pass the screen for potential winners, probably due to their terrible offense.

Season overview: San Diego State

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23, =(1)Alabama+7
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)Alabama+7
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
Other losses (1): New Mexico-9

Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the regular season 20-3. Now at the Elite Eight they've finally won 7 in a row.

The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16 while point guard Darion Trammell had 21 points in the huge upset of 1-seed Alabama.

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Season overview: Creighton

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9, =(3)Baylor+9, =(15)Princeton+11
Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(8)Arkansas+3, ((3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(15)Princeton+11
Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12

Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.

7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG). Ryan Nembhard was the star against Baylor, scoring 30 points. Kalkbrenner went 9 of 12 from the field against Princeton and Baylor Scheierman hit 5 of 7 threes for 21 points in the 86-75 win.

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Game Analysis: When a 5-seed and a 6-seed make it to the Elite Eight, something strange is going on, so who can guess what's coming next? San Diego State beat a 1-seed to get here while Creighton beat a 15-seed, the widest spread for any two teams to reach the Elite Eight (I can say that without looking it up because you can't beat a higher seed than a 1-seed and the worst seed to make the Sweet Sixteen is a 15-seed, so it's at least a tie).

Both teams play great defense. San Diego State's is top five per Pomeroy and really defends the 3-point shot well; they're a lot more vulnerable in 2-point land and that's where Creighton shoots best relatively, though. The Aztecs rebound really well on defense too and offensive rebounding is a weakness for the Bluejays.

Creighton's defense doesn't go for turnovers at all (a really low steals %). They rebound great (near top ten) and hardly ever put the other team on the free throw line (#2 there). They defend the 2-point area very well but allow almost 34% from threes—but are good at discouraging 3-point shots (#9 in lowest % of 3-pointers by opponents). San Diego State isn't a good shooting team at all; at best they're average (3-pointers) and poor at worst (2-pointers).

It seems that on offense Creighton should get the ball inside to Kalkbrenner who has shot the lights out in 2 of their 3 games; San Diego State is a pretty short team, though they do have a 6-10 center. The Aztecs like opponents to shoot threes they can't make, especially when that team can't rebound well. That's the trap Creighton has to avoid.

San Diego State's offense is in a bind—as usual—due to poor shooting. If they shot the three well that would be a great solution, but they don't. Still, it's worth considering since that's where Creighton's percentage is the worst, and SDSU's is relatively better. Creighton's foes tend to avoid shooting threes, but shoot fairly quickly. The Aztecs might need to take their time on offense; Creighton's not going to get a turnover.

On paper this looks like a tough assignment for San Diego State. But so did Alabama and the Aztecs found a way to win—one key was that Alabama attempted 27 threes and made just 3 of them. They fell in the trap, will Creighton?

Vegas Line:

Creighton by 2

Power rating: spread

Creighton by 2.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

San Diego St: 41.9%
Creighton: 58.1%

Creighton is the oddsmakers favorite as well as the pick of the Strength power rating, by a very similar spread. Creighton's near-60% chance to win compares favorably to the historical odds of a 6-seed beating a 5-seed which is 0% based on 1 result. Needless to say, 5-seed vs. 6-seed matchups are pretty rare; this is an odd year for March Madness.

Bottom line: At this point neither result is an upset. San Diego State just faced Alabama and Creighton faced Princeton, so things are getting easier for the Aztecs and tougher for the Bluejays.

Final prediction: San Diego State 69, Creighton 65

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 25, 2023 at 07:30 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (4) UConn

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 31-5
Conference: West Coast

vs.

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Channel: TBS

A 3-seed and a 4-seed that are both as good as 2-seeds.

Gonzaga UConn

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5        Strength:          #4
Median: #7 Median: #6
Markov: #8 Markov: #2
Pomeroy:           #6 Pomeroy:           #3
   Offense: #1 Offense: #3
   Defense: #73                     Defense: #13
BPI:               #7 BPI:               #5
LRMC:    #8 LRMC:              #4

Other Measures:

SOS: #65 SOS: #46
Tempo (Offense): #33    Tempo (Offense): #237
Consistency:       #286 Consistency:       #222
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #3
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #5

2nd half season:   #3 2nd half season:   #6
NCAA Tournament: #4 NCAA Tournament: #1

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #5 Final Four: #6

In just about every number here, 4-seed UConn is just a bit ahead of 3-seed Gonzaga. Strength, 1 place; BPI, 2 places; Pomeroy, 3 places; LRMC, 4 places. The one area where the Zags are better is offense, and UConn is right behind them, and miles better on defense.

UConn had a "lull" in the middle of the season where they underperformed and lost games, and Gonzaga did better overall since the midpoint. But in the three tournament games it's not close, even if Gonzaga is #4 among surviving teams.

According to the MegaScreen neither of these teams can win it all without setting a new low bar in a key area. For Gonzaga that would be defense where they started #76. For UConn, it's the fact that they have no NCAA wins in the prior three tournaments. But both teams were considered strong contenders for a Final Four spot, though being in the same Region makes it difficult to be a favorite.

Season overview: Gonzaga

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12, =(6)TCU+3, =(2)UCLA+3
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+1, =(3)Xavier+4, @(1)Alabama+10, =(2)UCLA+3
Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1

Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seeds this season.

In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.

Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28. Timme had 28 in the 84-81 win over TCU that got the Zags to the Sweet Sixteen for the 8th straight time. Strawther hit a late 3 that killed UCLA, 79-76 behind Timme's 36 points.

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Season overview: Connecticut

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament say yes, and it's really hard to argue after the Arkansas game.

6-9 forward Adam Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas.

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Game Analysis: My pre-tournament question about UConn is whether they'd recovered the form that had them at #1—in the AP poll and all the power ratings—or whether it was just a temporary, late-season surge of a few games. With each passing game of the tournament, the answer appears to be yes, UConn is playing as well as they did before the Big East season started.

The question for Gonzaga has been, how deep can they go before their poor defense catches up with them? It almost did against UCLA, where the Bruins took a 13-point halftime lead, but the Zags offense is so good they pulled out a win against a great team. UConn's offense is even better than UCLA's so that might make things worse; on the other hand, UConn's defense isn't quite UCLA's level, so the Zags have a chance to keep rolling due to their offensive play.

Gonzaga's shooting is top ten from both outside and inside the arc, while UConn's defense is top 20 in both zones. Rebounding looks about even on this side of the court. The one thing that stands out is UConn's propensity to foul, but the Zags only offensive weakness is poor free throw shooting (just under 70%).

The Huskies shoot 76% from the line, and shoot well overall though not nearly as well as Gonzaga. But on defense the Zags are terrible defenders, allowing over 50% in 2-point range and over 35% from threes.

Vegas Line:

UConn by 2

Power rating: spread

UConn by 1.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga: 45.3%
UConn: 54.7%

Showing just how close Vegas hews to power rating pronouncements, the sportsbooks favor UConn just as the Strength power rating does, by a bit more in fact. It's clearly a close game though, and our odds give Gonzaga over a 45% chance to win. Interestingly of the 5 times 3-seeds have faced 4-seeds, the 4-seed has won 3 times, or 60%.

Bottom line: UConn is back to their early season form and is a real threat to win it all now. They've played a better game than Gonzaga each round so far.

Final prediction: UConn 84, Gonzaga 75

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2023 at 04:14 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 34-3
Conference: C-USA

Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY
Channel: TBS

Only one 9-seed has ever made the Final Four, can FAU be the second?

Kansas State Florida Atlantic

Power Ratings

Strength:          #20      Strength:          #23
Median: #28 Median: #26
Markov: #23 Markov: #24
Pomeroy:           #21             Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense: #35 Offense: #26
   Defense: #27                     Defense: #29
BPI:               #30 BPI:               #33
LRMC:    #30 LRMC:              #16

Other Measures:

SOS: #14 SOS: #117
Tempo (Offense): #44    Tempo (Offense): #82
Consistency:       #95 Consistency:       #120
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #42 Str + Potential: #46

2nd half season:   #23 2nd half season:   #40
NCAA Tournament: #6 NCAA Tournament: #8

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #11 Final Four: #10

K-State needed overtime to advance and we've got another close one lined up for them. Florida Atlantic is neck and neck with the Wildcats in Strength and BPI and has pulled ahead in Pomeroy. In the pre-tournament LRMC they are way ahead. The offensive and defensive matchups are both very close, so it should be a very even game on both sides of the court.

It should also be an exciting game with a fast tempo as both teams push the pace to some extent. And both are consistent as well. The big difference between the two is experience playing top teams; K-State is used to playing tough teams back-to-back-to-back whereas FAU has had breathers against lesser competition all year. Will that be the difference?

The MegaScreen has both teams as Final Four considerations on Selection Sunday, not as favorites but right around the top 10 possibilities among 68 teams. Now it's down to one or the other.

Season overview: Kansas State

Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12, =(6)Kentucky+6, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(2)Texas+13, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.

The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.

Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State. In the 75-69 win over Kentucky Nowell led with 27 and the Wildcats overcame a 19-4 deficit in offensive rebounds. Against Michigan State Nowell had an incredible 19 assists as the Wildcats won 98-93 in overtime.

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Season overview: Florida Atlantic

Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8, =(4)Tennessee+7
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(4)Tennessee+7
Losses to tournament teams (0): None
Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 pre-Dance games are next-level.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70. FAU got their biggest win of the year by far—and one of the biggest in the program's history—by beating Tennessee 62-55 behind Davis' 9 of 10 free throw shooting (15 points total).

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Game Analysis: Despite the seedings this is a very tight game. 3-seed Kansas State has 9 losses in a killer schedule, while 9-seed FAU has 3 losses in a much easier one. In a 2-day turnaround K-State is much more familiar with playing tough opponents one after the other with few days in-between, as they played in the Big Twelve where every team was in the top 50 more or less. In Conference-USA, only FAU and one or two other teams (UAB and North Texas) were in the top 50 depending on what measure you use. That means the Owls have played from 5 to 7 games against top 50 foes and K-State has played around 20.

This game is not only very close overall but very close on both sides of the court. Their offensive vs. defensive stats are close and where FAU has a slight edge it's probably negligible due to the difference in schedule strength. The only clear advantage for FAU on offense is rebounding, where they excel despite being a shorter team (and are going up against a short team that doesn't rebound well on defense). But even that's hard to gauge because K-State is always the much shorter team in the Big Twelve. The Wildcats may find it easier to rebound than they have all year, or not.

For Kansas State an important advantage is free throw shooting—they shoot 75% to 71.5% for FAU. Not a huge difference but in a very close game that might be the one that matters.

Vegas Line:

Kansas State by 2

Power rating: spread

Kansas State by 0.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas State: 50.7%
Florida Atlantic: 49.3%

This is a razor-thin game, with K-State winning 657 times vs. 638 for FAU in the game-comparison system. Vegas has the Wildcats by 2 while Strength essentially predicts an overtime win for them. 3-seeds have defeated 9-seeds 100% of the time—2 out of 2—but when 9-seed Wichita State went to the Final Four in 2013 they beat 2-seed Ohio State, so maybe that's 1 in 3?

Bottom line: K-State has been the shorter team all year yet has found a way to beat taller teams. FAU has been the short team all year too but generally plays inferior teams. K-State gains the most from this dynamic, but needs another overtime win (they're 5-0 this season) to reach the Final Four.

Final prediction: Kansas State 83, Florida Atlantic 80 OT

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2023 at 11:17 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (3) Xavier

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS

In a tournament full of top teams getting upset, the 2-seed and 3-seed made it through in the Midwest.

Texas Xavier

Power Ratings

Strength:          #7        Strength:          #17
Median: #8 Median: #18
Markov: #6 Markov: #11
Pomeroy:           #5             Pomeroy:           #15
   Offense: #15 Offense: #7
   Defense: #10                     Defense: #63
BPI:               #5 BPI:               #21
LRMC:    #6 LRMC:              #12

Other Measures:

SOS: #8 SOS: #22
Tempo (Offense): #60    Tempo (Offense): #42
Consistency:       #246 Consistency:       #57
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #8
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #40

2nd half season:   #4 2nd half season:   #20
NCAA Tournament: #11 NCAA Tournament: #15
Injury Mod Rank:   #6 Injury Mod Rank:   #17

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #4 Winner: NA
Final Four: #7 Final Four: #8

Texas is a solid 2-seed, ranking #5 in Pomeroy and the BPI, and both offense and defense in the top 15 which is very enviable. Xavier isn't a weak 3-seed really but isn't nearly as impressive in the power ratings, ranging from a pre-tourney #12 in LRMC (which is mirrored in SportsRatings' Markov ranking of #11), while the BPI has the Musketeers at just #21. Their offense is better than Texas at #7 but on defense their play is a liability at #63.

Both teams have played a very challenging schedule, and both run a pretty fast offense so the tempo of the game should be swift. While Xavier for the season is very steady and true, Texas is a bit unpredictable though not on the really wild side. Looking at their charts below those characterizations might have reversed over the last several weeks it seems. In any case, both teams did well enough in the 2nd half of the season and, among the remaining field of 16, underperformed their peers ranking at #11 and #15 for their 2-game stints. We'll take a look and see if that appears to be significant or just a small sample (which it is, for sure).

Texas shows up at #4 in the MegaScreen's list of possible winners but at #4, and a Final Four shortlist but at #7, suggesting neither is expected but both are possible. Xavier is right behind them on the Final Four list but is screened out of the Winner's column probably due to their poor defensive efficiency.

Season overview: Texas

Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20, =(10)Penn St.+5
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7

Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.

Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points. Dylan Disu made 14 of 20 shots for 28 points as the Longhorns held on to top Penn State, 71-66.

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Season overview: Xavier

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22, =(14)Kennesaw St.+5, =(11)Pittsburgh+11
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, @(4)Connecticut+3, =(6)Creighton+22
Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1

Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.

Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though. The Musketeers were down 13 with 10 minutes to play and rallied for a 72-67 win with Jerome Hunter scoring 24 points. Six Musketeers scored in double figures against Pitt in the 84-73 win.

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Game Analysis: Neither Texas nor Xavier has played particularly well in getting to the Sweet Sixteen. Texas beat Colgate by 20 and Penn State by just 5, while Xavier beat 14-seed Kennesaw State by just 5 and topped Pitt by 11. The weakest of these games is clearly Xavier's first one, where they trailed by 13 with 10 minutes to go. After leading most of the game Texas fell behind against Penn State with 5 minutes to go before a strong finish kept them in front for good.

It's hard to say which team should be more concerned. Xavier's first game was awful and in the 2nd game they let a huge lead bleed down but they won both. Texas didn't blow Colgate out but the never let them in the game, and they responded immediately when Penn State really threatened. Not good action on either team's part but they stepped up when they had to. They will probably both be at their best this round, but it doesn't bode well for the winner in the next round.

When Xavier's on offense it's a top ten vs. ten ten game. The Musketeers are #3 in the nation in 3-point percentage but shockingly they are just #320 in frequency of 3-point shot selection. They're good at 2s too but in this day and age it seems like shooting more 3s would be a good idea. In any case, it works for them. Texas has good defensive coverage and gets a lot of blocks and steals, too, something that could affect Xavier on offense.

Texas should be able to exploit Xavier's general defensive weakness but though they have a slight edge in most stat areas (except rebounding) nothing really stands out as a total mismatch. Xavier doesn't defend the 3 well but that's not Texas' strength. Xavier is much better defending the 2, and that's what Texas is best shooting.

With the teams evenly matched when Xavier has the ball and Texas with a small edge when they have it, having a larger number of possessions is to the Longhorns' advantage, so that their edge emerges more reliably than in a low-possession game. In this case both teams play fast offense which will create a large number of possessions.

Vegas Line:

Texas by 4

Power rating: spread

Texas by 4.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Texas: 63.3%
Xavier: 36.7%

The Vegas line and Strength power rating are nose-to-nose on the spread, and Texas' 63% chance to win is right on the historical odds for a 2-seed to beat a 3-seed, which is about 62%. In other words, the typical situation: the 2-seed is a clear but slim favorite, and an upset by the 3-seed is not a huge deal.

Bottom line: Texas is just a little better than Xavier and in a fast tempo game with a lot of possessions, that difference should make itself known over time.

Final prediction: Texas 79, Xavier 72

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 23, 2023 at 12:45 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (6) Creighton vs. (15) Princeton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 23-12
Conference: Big East

vs.

Princeton Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 23-8
Conference: Ivy League

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: TBS

Princeton hopes to become only the 2nd 15-seed to make the Elite Eight. The other? St. Peter's just last year.

Creighton Princeton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10      Strength:          #94
Median: #9 Median: #109
Markov: #13 Markov: #92
Pomeroy:           #12             Pomeroy:           #91
   Offense: #24 Offense: #100
   Defense: #13                     Defense: #96
BPI:               #11 BPI:               #110
LRMC:    #14 LRMC:              #138

Other Measures:

SOS: #10 SOS: #165
Tempo (Offense): #133 Tempo (Offense): #254
Consistency:       #154 Consistency:       #216
Str + Reliability: #7 Str + Reliability: #102
Str + Potential: #16 Str + Potential: #95

2nd half season:   #7 2nd half season:   #95
NCAA Tournament: #7 NCAA Tournament: #4
Injury Mod Rank:   #9 Injury Mod Rank:   #95

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: NA Final Four: NA

Creighton is only a 6-seed but they're one hell of a 6. Top ten in Strength and nearly top ten in the other power ratings, the Bluejays are top 25 in both offense and defense, something a lot of top 3 seeds can't say usually. They're also top ten in all the "recent play" stats.

Princeton is around #100 in most of the power ratings (and only #138 in LRMC which doesn't update during the tournament). On offense and defense they're similar—around #100. Creighton should have a big edge on both sides of the floor according to that, but when it come to the two games of the tournament they're #4 out of the 16 remaining teams.

Neither team gets respect from the MegaScreen. Creighton is out of the Final Four due to losing 6 straight games during the regular season, and Princeton is screened out for 16 different reasons! The Bluejays do pass the Elite Eight screen (at #9) while Princeton doesn't.

Season overview: Creighton

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9, =(3)Baylor+9
Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(8)Arkansas+3, ((3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3
Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12

Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.

7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG). Ryan Nembhard was the star against Baylor, scoring 30 points.

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Season overview: Princeton

Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(2)Arizona+4, =(7)Missouri+15
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (1): =(13)Iona-6
Other losses (7): Hofstra-6, @Navy-1, Delaware-7, @Brown-2, @Yale-22, @Dartmouth-7, Yale-OT

Overview: Princeton's season started with two losses but when faced with easier foes they won 8 straight. Then they met 13-seed Iona and lost. And the pattern repeated, whenever Princeton faced someone in the top 100 they would lose, and then recovered with wins over lesser opponents. After two losses to Yale (#67 in Pomeroy) the Tigers finally got a solid win and it gave them an NCAA berth. Beating 2-seed Arizona gave them their first win over a tourney team this year. Wow. And at the Sweet Sixteen, each game is better than the last.

6-8" Princeton forward Tosan Evbuomwan leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg but also in assists with 4.8 per game as well as in steals. Evbuomwan had 15 points in the 59-55 upset of Arizona. He had just 9 against Missouri but Ryan Langborg had 22 as the Tigers pulled away in the 2nd half for a strong 78-63 win.

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Game Analysis: Only 3 15-seeds have made it to the Sweet Sixteen, and only one of those made it to the Elite Eight. In 2013 Florida Gulf Coast beat 2-seed Georgetown and 7-seed San Diego State before losing to 3-seed Florida 62-50. In 2021 Oral Roberts beat 2-seed Ohio State and 7-seed Florida before losing to 3-seed Arkansas, 72-70. Then last year St. Peter's beat 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State, and 3-seed Purdue (67-64) before falling to 8-seed and eventual runner-up North Carolina. Note that all of them faced a 3-seed in the Sweet Sixteen rather than a 6-seed.

In terms of their finishing Kenpom ranking, Florida Gulf Coast was #105, Oral Roberts was #125, and St. Peter's #102. Right now Princeton is #91, better than all three. The teams the other 15-seeds played in the Sweet Sixteen ended up ranked #2 (loss), #18 (loss), and #14 (win). Creighton is ranked #12. Clearly FGCU faced one of the best teams in the country in Florida; Oral Roberts and St. Peter's faced a foe comparable to Creighton and the games were very close.

Note that in comparing the teams' shooting/rebounding stats, etc, we have to keep in mind that Creighton played a top ten schedule strength while Princeton played the #165 schedule. But here are the keys to the matchup. Whether Princeton has the ball or not they are at a great disadvantage in efficiency (read: quality). They shoot the ball pretty well but Creighton defends better. They rebound poorly on offense but very well on defense, so there shouldn't be many 2nd opportunities for either team.

Creighton's ability to score 2-point baskets looks like the biggest edge, as well as shooting 78% free throws to Princeton's 71.5%. With 7-1 Ryan Kalkenbrenner the Bluejays should have a big edge inside, but Arizona had a much bigger height advantage and despite their bigs scoring 35 points the Wildcats lost. Princeton didn't even shoot great from the 3 there, just 16%. It's almost like they're doing some kind of magic.

Vegas Line:

Creighton by 9 1/2

Power rating: spread

Creighton by 11.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Creighton: 79.1%
Princeton: 20.9%

Only 3 15-seeds have made it this far and none of them has faced a 6-seed before so this is uncharted territory in seed vs. seed history. But 1 of the 3 that made it here went on to the Elite Eight, so we would assume that the odds against a 6-seed are at least that good (it's such a small sample that the actual odds could be anywhere 0 < x < 67%. But we'll go with 1 in 3. Or 21% works, too.

For comparison, the game-comparison system gave FCGU a 10.3% chance to beat Florida; Oral Roberts a 13.8% chance to beat Arkansas; and St. Peter's a 15.8% chance to beat Purdue—or 21.7% chance if you gave them home court for playing less than 100 miles from home while Purdue was over 700 miles away.

Bottom line: This looks like a 50/50 game, with a really good team going up against one that's currently on fire. The fact that Princeton has been a bit better than Creighton over two tournament games is striking since the Bluejays themselves have been so good. Creighton is more like a 3-seed than a 6-seed but St. Peter's blazed the trail last year as a 15-seed by beating the 3-seed to get to the Elite Eight and we'll take the 15-seed one more time.

Final prediction: Princeton 71, Creighton 70

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 22, 2023 at 08:44 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: American

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS

Fresh from blow-out wins, Houston and Miami face off.

Houston Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2        Strength:          #42
Median: #1 Median: #31
Markov: #1 Markov: #22
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #32
   Offense: #9 Offense: #11
   Defense: #4                     Defense: #108
BPI:               #1 BPI:               #36
LRMC:    #1 LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS: #86 SOS: #77
Tempo (Offense): #324 Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency:       #198 Consistency:       #99
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #59

2nd half season:   #5 2nd half season:   #29
NCAA Tournament: #10 NCAA Tournament: #6
Injury Mod Rank:   #1 Injury Mod Rank:   #43

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #1 Winner: NA
Final Four: #1 Final Four: NA

By the numbers this one isn't even close. Houston is #1 on all the power ratings except Strength where they're #2, and they're back to #1 when Marcus Sasser is 100% healthy which now seems to be the case. Both their offense and defense are in the top 10. Miami is anywhere from the low 30s (Pomeroy) to low 40s (Strength, LRMC) and while they essentially play top 10 offense, their defense isn't in the top 100.

The one number that gives Miami the edge is performance in the NCAA tournament so far, where Miami is #6 out of the remaining 16 and Houston is just #10. That isn't due to Houston's last game vs. Auburn—that game and Miami's win over Indiana rank similarly—but Houston's first game against Northern Kentucky where they won by just 11 points.

Despite Miami being in a Major conference the teams have played similarly tough schedules, as the ACC has some major cupcakes this year and Miami's pre-conference slate lacked power hitters. Not many people realize how slow Houston's offense is on average, but it's one of the slowest while Miami is moderate. Miami is also quite consistent, while Houston is average in that department. Both teams had injury worries going into the tournament—Marcus Sasser for Houston, and Norchad Omier for Miami—but neither missed a game and both seem fully healthy now.

The MegaScreen (after a tweak to make it less strenous) deemed Houston the most likely Final Four team and the most likely winner. Meanwhile Miami was screened out of Final Four consideration due to their weak defense, which ranked #133 in Pomeroy upon the start of the first round. It's up to #108 now but it's the starting number that matters, and they'd set a new low (or high) if they made it.

Season overview: Houston

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2, =(16)Northern Kentucky+11, =(9)Auburn+17
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
Other losses (1): Temple-1

Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good (and as of the Auburn game he appeared to be back to full health). What happened against Memphis was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.

Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game. Against Northern Kentucky Sasser played 14 minutes all in the first half, scoring 5 points, and was re-injured; Jarace Walker led with 16. Down 10 at the half to Auburn, Houston rallied furiously to blow out the Tigers in the 2nd half, 50-23, behind Tramon Mark's 26, with Sasser playing 31 minutes and scoring 22 points.

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Season overview: Miami

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.

Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points.

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Game Analysis: Both teams turned in strong performances to get to the Sweet Sixteen. Miami's first round game was a lot better than Houston's first round game, but Marcus Sasser wasn't nearly 100% for their first game.

The game will be decided by A) Whether Miami's great offense or Houston's tough defense carries the day on that side of the court and B) How greatly Houston can exploit their edge on the other side of the court vs. Miami's porous defense.

The first point get into the more interesting matchup of the day. Miami's offense is top ten worthy but Houston's defense is even better. In a given game either might have an advantage. Miami shoots well and Houston defends very well (#2 in the nation). Miami's advantage here is offensive rebounding. Houston's edge here is blocked shots (#1 in the nation) and steals.

Clearly Houston has the edge when they have the ball, but how much? Miami's defense allows a high shooting percentage and the Cougars shoot pretty well—especially within the arc where Miami's defense is worst. They'll have an even bigger rebounding edge than Miami does on offense. About the only thing Miami does well on defense is to not foul, but Houston shouldn't need a lot of points from the free throw line.

Miami's defense has been better during the tournament, as their rise in Kenpom defensive efficiency show. But it's clear Houston has a big edge when on offense. The other side of the court seems nearly even, but given Houston's defensive lockdown in the 2nd half against Auburn, even Miami may have trouble scoring on the Cougars.

The Auburn game looked like a turning point for Houston. After a bad loss to Memphis without Marcus Sasser and a lackluster first round win where he barely played and was re-injured, the Cougars fell behind a scrappy Auburn team in hostile territory but rallied to play possibly their best half of basketball of the entire season, winning the half 50-23. Based on that they look like they're headed for the Final Four, if not a championship.

Vegas Line:

Houston by 7

Power rating: spread

Houston by 10.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston: 77.4%
Miami: 22.6%

The Sweet Sixteen is a great equalizer. Oddsmakers figure that if a team got here, it's just about as good as the other teams that get here. Hence the spread you'd see in a regular-season game is compressed a bit. A 5-seed making the Sweet Sixteen gets a bit of an upgrade, and they're just 7 point underdogs instead of the 10 point underdogs they'd be normally. Our power rating gives a 10 point spread and computes a 77% chance for the Cougars to win, close to the 80%+ odds that a 1-seed historically has over a 5-seed.

Bottom line: Houston looks like they're on their way to the Final Four, which will put them in Houston with a great shot at a national title. Barring an out of this world performance Miami's run is coming to an end.

Final prediction: Houston 83, Miami 63

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 22, 2023 at 07:02 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Alabama vs. (5) San Diego State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: SEC

vs.

San Diego State Aztec
Seed: 5
Record: 29-6
Conference: Mountain West

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: TBS

A big step up in opponent for the Aztecs who beat a 12-seed and a 13-seed so far.

Alabama San Diego St

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1        Strength:          #22
Median: #2 Median: #17
Markov: #4 Markov: #16
Pomeroy:           #2             Pomeroy:           #14
   Offense: #18 Offense: #69
   Defense: #3                     Defense: #5
BPI:               #2 BPI:               #24
LRMC:    #3 LRMC:              #17

Other Measures:

SOS: #9 SOS: #59
Tempo (Offense): #6 Tempo (Offense): #171
Consistency:       #362 Consistency:       #56
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #16
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #48

2nd half season:   #1 2nd half season:   #21
NCAA Tournament: #2 NCAA Tournament: #8
Injury Mod Rank:   #2 Injury Mod Rank:   #23

MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #3 Winner: NA
Final Four: #3 Final Four: #9

Alabama is #1 in Strength, #2 in Pomeroy and BPI, and #3 in LRMC. San Diego State is in the top 25 in all rankings but not in the top ten. Their #5 defense is roughly as good as Alabama's #3 defense, but on offense they are only #69 while the Tide are firmly in the top 25. It's going to be a great defensive ball game.

San Diego State is from the mid-Major Mountain West which is stronger than the ACC this year top to bottom. Still, their SOS is far below Alabama's, partly because the Tide are in the strong SEC but also they played a killer non-conference slate. The Tide are among the speediest teams on offense, as well as one of the most inconsistent teams in performance game-to-game (the two may be related). SDSU has a moderate-speed offense and is very consistent in their performances. If there's an upset to be had, it's more likely to occur because Alabama had an off game than the Aztecs found a new gear.

In the tournament so far Alabama has been great; San Diego State has been average for the surviving 16. Alabama is one of the MegaScreen's favorites to make the Final Four and is one of the more likely to win it all. The Aztecs are screened out of the winner's spot—probably due to poor offensive efficiency—but are a long shot to make the Final Four.

Season overview: Alabama

Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, (8)Memphis+3, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (6)Kentucky+26, @(8)Arkansas+15, @(7)Missouri+21, (11)Mississippi St.+3, @(9)Auburn+8, (8)Arkansas+3, (9)Auburn+OT, =(11)Mississippi St.+23, =(7)Missouri+11, =(7)Texas A&M+19, =(16)Texas A&M Corpus Christi+21, =(8)Maryland+22
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, @(8)Arkansas+15, (8)Arkansas+3
Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Connecticut-15, (3)Gonzaga-10, @(4)Tennessee-9, @(7)Texas A&M-6
Other losses (1): @Oklahoma-24

Overview: In the pre-SEC season the Tide beat 7-seed Michigan State, 1-seed Houston, and 8-seed Memphis while losing to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Gonzaga. To be fair, this tally does could Mississippi State three times and they didn't make the final 64, so you could say reduce the total by three now.

The Tide went 16-2 in the SEC, 19-2 if you count the conference tournament, only losing to 4-seed Tennessee and 7-seed Texas A&M on the road. The other loss along the way? A 93-69 beatdown by Oklahoma, a Big Twelve team that didn't make the Big Dance. It shows that even the best teams are vulnerable to any team ranked in the top 50 or so. At the Sweet Sixteen, Alabama has played an amazing 6 of the remaining teams, winning 4 games and losing 3.

Freshman Brandon Miller is the team's star, averaging 19.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. Attention came his way due to a fatal shooting where it was revealed he had transported the murder weapon. Following this revelation the Tide played four very uncharacteristically poor games (games #28 to #31: they beat South Carolina in overtime, Arkansas by 3 at home, Auburn at home in overtime, and lost to Texas A&M 67-61) but Miller himself seemed unaffected, scoring a career high 41 in the first game. The guy has ice in his veins so don't expect the pressure of the NCAA tournament to get to him.

Of course just after saying that, Miller goes 0-5 for 0 points in the first game, citing a groin injury, as well as death threats. Nick Pringle led with 19 against TAMU-CC. Miller did score 19 in the 73-51 Maryland win but was 5 of 17 from the field while Jahvon Quinerly led with 22.

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Season overview: San Diego State

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
Other losses (1): New Mexico-9

Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the season 20-3.

The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16.

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Game Analysis: Alabama went through a 4-game spell where Brandon Miller was still playing well but the team wasn't (this was right after the gun transportate revelation). That slump seems to be over for the team and they're playing just as well as always...but Miller isn't. He's a total of 5 of 22 shooting during the first two games. It hasn't affected the team's play but how much longer can they win with Miller playing poorly?

It's going to be a bit rough for the Aztecs on offense. They shoot the ball pretty poorly, and Alabama defends exceptionally well—they're #1 per Pomeroy in effective field goal defense, great against both the 3 (#3) and the 2 (#1). SDSU might have a rebounding edge here so they can collect some of their many misses.

The Tide doesn't shoot all that great either, but they do shoot the two pretty well and San Diego State's defense against the 2 is sketchy. So as long as they don't get the ball stolen (they are vulnerable there and SDSU is good at that) or their shot blocked (ditto), they should have a good day inside the arc where they have a big height advantage in the forward and center positions. The problem is that they're used to shooting a whole lot of threes (#8 in frequency there) so they might have to change their mindset to win this game.

Alabama won their first two games by more than 20 points, which is great but 1-seeds often get an unexpected test along the way no matter how dominant they are early on. This would be a perfect time, because I think they won't take the Aztecs seriously. In the back of their minds they are playing a mid-Major school that just beat a 12 and a 13 to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and they expect another double-digit winning margin. Make no mistake, they might get it, but I think they might get a scare from a mid-Major that's more of a major program.

Luckily for them they're playing about six hours from home whereas San Diego State is playing over 30 hours from home. That's probably worth a point or two right there for fan support and easier travel.

Vegas Line:

Alabama by 7 1/2

Power rating: spread

Alabama by 8.2 / 11.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Alabama: 67.8% / 74.1%
San Diego St: 32.2% / 25.9%

Vegas has Alabama by 7 1/2, while Strength says 8 points...unless we add home court advantage which makes it over 11 points. I don't think full home court should be given but it should be more than 0 points since Alabama is playing pretty close and SDSU very, very far from home. The Tide end up with somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 chance of winning; amazingly, 1-seeds normally win over 80% of these matchups (4-seeds win almost 30% against 1-seeds).

Bottom line: I think San Diego State is going to give Alabama a run for their money, but come up short.

Final prediction: Alabama 73, San Diego State 68

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 21, 2023 at 08:37 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

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2023 NCAA Tournament Schedule • Previews • Odds • Predictions • Results • Final Scores

March 28, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (5) Miami

March 27, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) San Diego State vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

March 25, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (5) Miami

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) San Diego State vs. (6) Creighton

March 24, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (4) UConn

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

March 23, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (3) Xavier

March 22, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (6) Creighton vs. (15) Princeton

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (5) Miami

March 21, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Alabama vs. (5) San Diego State