SportsRatings: College Football

2019 Holiday Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Iowa vs. USC

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
Time: Friday, December 27 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: Fox Sports 1

#16 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3) vs. USC Trojans (8-4)

Iowa travels to San Diego to meet USC in what should be a close game.

Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 2 (over/under 52)

Strength power rating:   #17 Iowa 24,   #27 USC 23    
Adjusted for turnovers: USC 25-22
Median game rating: Iowa 25-24

We give USC partial home field advantage for playing a few hours from home instead of a few thousand miles. The spread from our Strength power rating is closer to 2 points than one point, but rounding the scores gives a 1-point difference.

Adjusting for turnovers, where USC has had "back luck" and Iowa good fortune, turns the game into an expected 1-point win for the Trojans, given that turnovers are mostly random events that shouldn't be expected to occur at the same rate. Using the teams' median game performance average, which negates the effect of outlier games, Iowa is about a half-point favorite. It looks close!

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2 Spread
Iowa	53%	48%
USC	47%	52%

As expected from the Strength power rating results, cross-comparing game performances yields an Iowa win most of the time, but not covering a 2 point spread most of the time.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa scoring offense: #61	USC scoring defense: #54
Iowa total offense: #75	USC total defense: #72
Iowa rushing offense: #69	USC rushing defense: #97
Iowa passing offense: #58	USC passing defense: #27

Iowa's scoring offense is just #97 in raw terms, but they've faced some of the toughest defenses in the country in the Big Ten (think Wisconsin, Penn State). Adjusted for that, Iowa's offense is roughly average for the FBS. Still not great, but not as lowly as their raw scores would indicate. Not surprisingly, the Hawkeyes lack stars on offense; QB Nate Stanley has a workmanlike 2,738 yards with a 14:7 TD:int ratio, and there are rotating feature players at RB and WR. If anything, their star on offense is kicker Keith Duncan, who has made 29 of 34 field goals; he's a big reason why Iowa is #5 in red zone percentage even though the Hawks only score touchdowns in the RZ around 50% of the time. USC's defense, meanwhile, is much like the Hawkeye offense—good but not great. Look for Iowa to try to run the ball against the Trojans.

When USC has the ball

USC scoring offense: #14	Iowa scoring defense: #3
USC total offense: #15	Iowa total defense: #12
USC rushing offense: #95	Iowa rushing defense: #24
USC passing offense: #4	Iowa passing defense: #11

Like Iowa, USC has faced tough defenses and their #34 offense gets an adjusted upgrade to #14. It's here where this game will look like a New Year's Day bowl, as Iowa has the #3 scoring defense. USC doesn't run the ball well but their passing game is huge with QB Kedon Slovis (3,242 yards, 28 TDs, 9 int) throwing to great targets like Michael Pittman Jr (1,222 yards, 11 TDs). The Hawkeyes have a solid pass defense but they are a bend-don't-break unit, so expect USC to throw for lots of yardage. How much they can score is the big question. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa has 9 sacks on the year.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Iowa #4    USC #98

Iowa has the clear edge here, mostly because of Lou Groza candidate Keith Duncan. USC's Chase McGrath is good, too, but not used nearly as often on field goals.

 

Iowa's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. Miami OH 38-14
   
2. Rutgers 30-0
   
3. @Iowa St 18-17
   
4. MTSU 48-3
   
5. @#14 Michigan 3-10
   
6. #10 Penn State 12-17
   
7. Purdue 26-20
   
8. @Northwestern 20-0
   
9. @#8 Wisconsin 22-24
   
10. #18 Minnesota 23-19
    
11. Illinois 19-10
    
12. @Nebraska 27-24

Iowa lost only to Top 25 teams this season, and always by a close score: 7 points at Michigan; 5 points vs. Penn State; 2 points at Wisconsin. Their game ratings for these losses match or exceed most of their winning performances. Say what you want about Iowa but they are a very consistent team. They did beat Minnesota, who ended up ranked two spots below them at #18 so that was just another example of keeping things in order.

 

USC's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. Fresno St 31-23
   
2. Stanford 45-20
   
3. @Brigham Young 27-30 OT
   
4. #11 Utah 30-23
   
5. @Washington 14-28
   
6. @#15 Notre Dame 27-30
   
7. Arizona 41-14
   
8. @Colorado 35-31
   
9. #6 Oregon 24-56
   
10. @Arizona St 31-26
    
11. @California 41-17
    
12. UCLA 52-35

USC had an up and down year, unlike consistent Iowa. The Trojans opened with a tepid win over Fresno, but impressed with a strong win over Stanford (who finished just 4-8). The next game was an overtime loss to BYU, and hopes of a big comeback season were dashed. They turned around and beat #11 Utah for their biggest win of the year.

Lest anyone think the Trojans were back again and would be beating ranked teams, they promptly lost the next 2 games at Washington and Notre Dame, and a bit later they lost big to Oregon. With coach Clay Helton on the hot seat the Trojans surprised again by impressively dispatching Arizona State, Cal, and UCLA. It was bumpy along the way but 8-4 ended up looking pretty decent, especially with a 5-1 finish.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Iowa's season: +1 win; USC's season: +3 wins
• Iowa's momentum: +1 win; USC's momentum: +2 wins
• Iowa glad to be here? yes; USC glad to be here: a grudging yes
• Iowa time zones from home: 2; USC time zones from home: 0
• Iowa coaching situation: unchanged; USC coaching situation: stablilized

It's very telling that Iowa finished with the same win total as last year (post bowl win), while USC had a strong turnaround from last year's 5-7, and somehow it's USC's fanbase that is unsatisfied with progress and almost had their head coach fired. The Trojans' strong finish saved Clay Helton's job, and if you ask their fans, they will grudgingly admit that there was progress from last year and going to the Holiday Bowl is a good thing. But in the back of their mind they are still expecting Pac-12 championships, if not national championships.

Final analysis

This is a good matchup. USC's offense is great, Iowa's defense is great. On the other side of the coin, well, neither team excels but they are still evenly matched. Over the last 3 games USC has taken their offense to even higher heights, but the defense continues to lag. Perhaps the game will be a higher scoring one than expected.

Iowa is very consistent, while USC is kind of all over the place. Iowa will play the same game it has played all year. In other words, it's USC that will determine who wins this game; the variance in the Trojan performance is definitely enough to push a projected close game one way or the other. And psychology probably determines whether they put forth a strong effort or not.

USC fans are ultimately not satisfied with the progress made this year, when they really should be. Another 3-win improvement and they'll be right back to challenging for championships. Iowa has no such expectations. Playing in California during an Iowa winter? That's good news. A 9-3 season? Better than most years. Losing the close games to the best teams? Not happy about that, but hey they beat Minnesota.

It seems that Iowa has a better attitude about their spot in the college football hierarchy, grousing occasionally but realizing that not everyone can be Ohio State. USC, on the other hand, expects to be Ohio State every year. Hell, they expect Ohio State to want to be USC!

 

So while Iowa is pleased to be taking on a team like USC in the bowl season, USC is playing near home (ho-hum) and playing a team that rarely figures in the national race. In 2003 both teams were ranked in the top ten when they met, and USC beat Iowa 38-17 in the Orange Bowl. USC was motivated for that game. The 2019 Holiday Bowl is a different matter. Only Iowa has motivation this time around.

Prediction:  Iowa 37, USC 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Texas Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
Time: Friday, December 27 at 6:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#25 Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (7-5)

A good old-fashioned Big 12 reunion in Houston.

Vegas line/spread: Texas A&M by 7 (over/under 53.5)

Strength power rating:  #28 Texas A&M 30,  #23 Oklahoma State 28   
Adjusted for turnovers: Texas A&M 31-29
Median game rating: Texas A&M 32-28

Despite finishing in the Playoff Committee's top 25, Oklahoma State finds itself an underdog against the Aggies. Perhaps it's the location? We give Texas A&M partial home field advantage for playing less than 100 miles from home (it's not quite like the Texas-Oklahoma game where the teams travel the same distance and the neutral status of Dallas is "agreed upon.")  The Cowboys rank higher in our Strength power rating but the home field edge tilts our estimate to the Aggies, but just barely.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Oklahoma State	45%	65%
Texas A&M	55%	35%

As expected, Texas A&M wins most of the game trials, but only about 1/3 of the comparisons against a 7-point spread.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State scoring offense: #22	Texas A&M scoring defense: #25
Oklahoma State total offense: #11	Texas A&M total defense: #13
Oklahoma State rushing offense: #6	Texas A&M rushing defense: #22
Oklahoma State passing offense: #76	Texas A&M passing defense: #24

This is a good matchup; Oklahoma State has a top 25 offense and the Aggies have a top 25 defense, and they're well-matched in terms of scoring/scoring allowed and yardage gained/allowed. The Aggie defense is solid against both the pass and the run, while Oklahoma State's offense is geared toward the ground game. No wonder: you would be too if you had Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher with 1,936 yards. That's over 160 yards per game, and he's consistent, too, reaching the 100 yard mark every game except one (McNeese State, where he carried just 8 times). He's scored 21 TDs this year. Not quite Barry Sanders but probably the closest the Cowboys have had since 1988.

Oklahoma State's starting QB Spencer Sanders was lost for the season in November; his replacement, Dru Brown, started for Hawaii for two seasons before transferring to Oklahoma State and is a marginally more accurate passer but not nearly the ground threat Sanders was. Oklahoma State has also been without leading receiver Tylan Wallace since late October.

When Texas A&M has the ball

Texas A&M scoring offense: #39	Oklahoma State scoring defense: #36
Texas A&M total offense: #40	Oklahoma State total defense: #56
Texas A&M rushing offense: #59	Oklahoma State rushing defense: #34
Texas A&M passing offense: #49	Oklahoma State passing defense: #50

The matchup on this side is fair, too, as both the Aggie offense and Cowboy defense are above average. Unlike Oklahoma State, Texas A&M's offense doesn't focus on any particular area. QB Kellen Mond has thrown for 2,802 yards and 19 TDs and he has 383 net yards on the ground and 7 more scores.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Oklahoma State #30    Texas A&M #59

 

Oklahoma State's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. @Oregon St 52-36
   
2. McNeese St 56-14
   
3. @Tulsa 40-21
   
4. @Texas 30-36
   
5. Kansas St 26-13
   
6. @Texas Tech 35-45
   
7. #7 Baylor 27-45
   
8. @Iowa St 34-27
   
9. TCU 34-27
   
10. Kansas 31-13
    
11. @West Virginia 20-13
    
12. #4 Oklahoma 16-34

Aside from a dip in the middle—the losses to Texas Tech and Baylor—Oklahoma State played a pretty consistent year of football. They started strong at 4-1 with a close loss at Texas. The wins over Kansas State and Iowa State were the high points, but they weren't much higher than the rest of their performances. There may have been a bit of a slump at the end as they played lesser teams and then lost at home to Oklahoma, but that could just be the eye looking for a pattern. They played the last 2 games without QB Spencer Sanders, and their offensive ratings for those games is a lot lower than the first 10 games. 

 

Texas A&M's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Texas St-San Marcos 41-7
   
2. @#3 Clemson 10-24
   
3. Lamar 62-3
   
4. #12 Auburn 20-28
   
5. =Arkansas 31-27
   
6. #13 Alabama 28-47
   
7. @Mississippi 24-17
   
8. Mississippi St 49-30
   
9. Texas-San Antonio 45-14
   
10. South Carolina 30-6
    
11. @#5 Georgia 13-19
    
12. @#1 LSU 7-50

Texas A&M followed a pretty narrow path in 2019: beat every team that is not in the top 15; lose to any team that is in the top 15. The Aggies lost to #3 Clemson, but made it respectable. They also played well losing to #12 Auburn, #13 Alabama, and #5 Georgia. Only against #1 LSU did the bottom drop out. So there were no bad losses, but where were the good wins? Not the 31-27 win over Arkansas. Not Texas State, or UTSA, or Lamar. Not the 24-17 win over Ole Miss. Only two wins really look good: beating bowl-bound Mississippi State, and crushing South Carolina 30-6. This makes Texas A&M's season an enigma, with a wide gulf between the worst team they lost to (Alabama? really?) and the best team they beat (Miss St). Oklahoma State falls into that wide range, certainly. The Aggies can't beat a top 15 team, but can they beat #25?

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Oklahoma State's season: +3 wins; Texas A&M's season: -1 win
• Oklahoma State's momentum: +0 wins; Texas A&M's momentum: +1 win
• Oklahoma State glad to be here? yes; Texas A&M glad to be here: yes
• Oklahoma State time zones from home: 0; Texas A&M time zones from home: 0
• Oklahoma State coaching situation: unchanged; Texas A&M coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams are playing pretty close to home and probably like where they ended up, especially Texas A&M who is playing in their own backyard. Oklahoma State could have landed somewhere better, but it wouldn't have been as close, and it wouldn't have been against former Big 12 rival A&M. The teams first played in 1913 and have faced off 27 times, including 14 times during the 1996-2011 span before the Aggies left for the SEC (thanks to www.winsipedia.com for making this information so easy to find).

Final analysis

Texas A&M has shown they can compete with the best teams in the nation. But in five tries, they haven't succeeded once in winning. Does that mean they will compete well with Oklahoma State but fall short? It would be different if they also shown an ability to beat good teams outside the top 25, but they only played one winning team, Mississippi State, in their 7 other games.

The matchups on offense and defense look pretty even for both teams. Texas A&M, however, can probably focus its defensive efforts more than Oklahoma State can. The Aggies know they have to try to stop Chuba Hubbard. Stopping Hubbard is easier said than done, but with Spencer Sanders gone the Cowboys lack a dual threat QB, and the Cowboys are also missing their leading receiver, diminishing the pass threat.

But there might be something to the QB change. Even though Dru Brown has played well, the offense as a whole hasn't. Their last three games rate 17 points lower than the first 9 games, and almost 13 points below their overall average. In the Kansas game, OK State led 24-0 when Sanders left in the 3rd quarter, and only scored 7 points. Against West Virginia (#49 defense) and Oklahoma (#26) they scored just 20 and 16, their lowest totals of the season. Now they face the #25 Aggie defense. 

When we first looked at this game we saw two evenly matched teams and wondered why a field goal game was getting a touchdown spread. Looking at Oklahoma State's injury situation—and particularly how it frees up defenses to focus on Hubbard—it becomes clear. Hubbard had just a touch over 100 yards in the last two games since West Virginia and Oklahoma didn't have to respect the quarterback run option, or worry as much about downfield passes with WR Wallace out. This might not matter against a bad defense, but the Aggies will be able to focus their efforts on Hubbard. We think Texas A&M will finally get a win over the Playoff Committee's top 25.

And now we agree with the Vegas spread.

Prediction:   Texas A&M 30,  Oklahoma State 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Pinstripe Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
Time: Friday, December 27 at 3:20pm ET
TV: ESPN

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-6)

Two programs meet in Yankee Stadium, each having a very different outlook for the Pinstripe Bowl.

Vegas line/spread: Michigan State by 4 (over/under 49)

Interestingly, the over/under has dropped from 53 to 49 in the last few days.

Strength power rating:  #37 Michigan State 29,  #61 Wake Forest 24        
Adjusted for turnovers: Michigan State 30-21
Median game rating: Michigan State 28-23

Despite Wake Forest's superior win-loss status, the Spartans are favored both by Vegas and the Strength power rating; the optional adjustments don't change that.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -4 Spread
Wake Forest	39%	45%
Michigan State	61%	55%

As reflected in the power rating spread, Michigan State still wins most trials against a 4 point spread.

When Wake Forest has the ball

Wake Forest scoring offense: #44	Michigan State scoring defense: #20
Wake Forest total offense: #30	Michigan State total defense: #15
Wake Forest rushing offense: #58	Michigan State rushing defense: #9
Wake Forest passing offense: #22	Michigan State passing defense: #32

Wake Forest has a decent but unspectacular offense that gains yardage at a better clip than they score points. They're an average rushing team but their passing game is top 25 level, with A-level receivers Sage Surratt (1,001 yards, 11 TDs) and Kendall Hinton (953 yards). At QB it will either be Jamie Newman or Sam Hartman, depending on Newman's health status; it shouldn't make a big difference. Michigan State, as always, has a tough defense but the pass is their relative weakness. Their solid red zone play should help keep points off the board.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State scoring offense: #64	Wake Forest scoring defense: #79
Michigan State total offense: #66	Wake Forest total defense: #81
Michigan State rushing offense: #88	Wake Forest rushing defense: #84
Michigan State passing offense: #34	Wake Forest passing defense: #71

The Spartans have struggled on offense this year, ranking just #107 in scoring and #97 in total offense, but they've played some of the best defenses in the country. When adjusted for that, they rank as pretty much an average offense, #64 and #66 respectively in scoring and yardage. And against Wake Forest's questionable defense they should have better luck than they did against the Wisconsins and Ohio States. QB Brian Lewerke has 2,959 yards and 16 TDs; he's also thrown 12 interceptions.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Wake Forest #117    Michigan State #104

Neither team will be be counting on special teams play to put them over the top.

 

Wake Forest's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. Utah St 38-35
   
2. @Rice 41-21
   
3. North Carolina 24-18
   
4. Elon 49-7
   
5. @Boston College 27-24
   
6. Louisville 59-62
   
7. Florida St 22-20
   
8. North Carolina St 44-10
   
9. @Virginia Tech 17-36
   
10. @#3 Clemson 3-52
    
11. Duke 39-27
    
12. @Syracuse 30-39 OT

Wake Forest roared to a 5-0 start but lost a shootout with Louisville, 62-59, for their first loss. Two more wins—including Florida State—put the Deacons at 7-1 with 4 games left; they lost 3 of the last 4, including an overtime game at Syracuse. Their game ratings for the last 4 games are 9 points worse than their average performance, and 13 points worse than the first 8 games averaged.

 

Michigan State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. Tulsa 28-7
   
2. Western Michigan 51-17
   
3. Arizona St 7-10
   
4. @Northwestern 31-10
   
5. Indiana 40-31
   
6. @#2 Ohio State 10-34
   
7. @#8 Wisconsin 0-38
   
8. #10 Penn State 7-28
   
9. Illinois 34-37
   
10. @#14 Michigan 10-44
    
11. @Rutgers 27-0
    
12. Maryland 19-16

Michigan State started the season in the AP top 25 and looked it against Tulsa (on defense at least) and Western Michigan, but the offense fell flat against Arizona State. They recovered to go 5-1 before the showdown with Ohio State. Though they played a pretty good game in retrospect—holding the Buckeyes to 34 points is an accomplishment—the effect of that loss seemed to carry over into bad performances against Wisconsin and Penn State. Then Illinois staged a huge comeback from 28-3 to win 37-34, and that took the remaining wind out of the Spartans sails. They hit bottom against Michigan, losing 44-10.

The Spartans won their last two games against 2-10 Rutgers and 3-9 Maryland as the defense played well once again. But the offense was still tepid in those wins.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Wake Forest's season: +2 wins; Michigan State's season: -1 win
• Wake Forest's momentum: -2 wins; Michigan State's momentum: -2 wins
• Wake Forest glad to be here? yes; Michigan State glad to be here: NO
• Wake Forest time zones from home: 0; Michigan State time zones from home: 1
• Wake Forest coaching situation: unchanged; Michigan State coaching situation: unchanged

You can't tell much from the numbers above. Wake Forest added a couple of wins from last year, Michigan State lost one. Both teams had negative momentum, with a much better start to the season than their finish. But look at both programs' histories and Wake Forest is much happier with their season than the Spartans.

Michigan State expected to be a Big Ten contender this year, and started in the top 25. A 5-game losing streak put those dreams to rest. Meanwhile Wake Forest started the year unsure if they would make a bowl game. An 8-4 finish is more than they expected, and 6-6 is worse than the Spartans would have imagined.

It's not all roses for Wake Forest, who at 5-0 and 7-1 had bigger dreams than the Pinstripe Bowl. And technically Michigan State finished stronger, with two wins to secure a bowl berth, than the Deacons who lost 3 of 4. But the last 2 wins aren't what Sparty fans remember: it's the 5-game losing streak and the 44-10 loss to Michigan. Beating Rutgers and Maryland doesn't impress the MSU crowd. Their fans are not happy with the Pinstripe Bowl, which is a regarded as a poor destination for a barely-qualifying team.

Wake Forest is much more likely to focus on an 8-4 finish and the chance to play in Yankee Stadium. For them, there are positives, given what their historical status is: they missed a bowl six out of seven years recently, but now they're in their 4th one in a row. They see progress in the program, where Michigan State fears stagnation in their own.

Final analysis

Michigan State has struggled on offense. A lot of this is due to playing great defenses. But unfortunately their play on offense has declined in the 2nd half of the season even when schedule is accounted for, dropping by almost 12 points per game, or almost 6 points off their full-season average. In the first half of the season they scored 51 points on Western Michigan (defense ranking: 78) but in the last two games they faced the #99 and #101 defense and only managed 27 and 19. 

Wake Forest has the same problem with their defense. In the last 4 games their defense has been almost 7 points worse than it was in the first 8, and about 4 points worse than their full-season average. That should give Michigan State some hope, but overall it's still a net loss of over 2 points for the Spartans. Overall, Michigan State is playing 10 points worse and Wake Forest 9 points worse. If either team can regain its earlier-season form they will win the game easily.

Which squad is more likely to do that?  Michigan State's defense probably has recovered from its lows in the Illinois and Michigan game. But the offense hasn't shown life in months. The team and its fanbase aren't pleased with this destination. Wake Forest didn't play well down the stretch at all, but when they look back at an 8-4 season they see positives, not negatives. At least, that's what I would see for the team. There's more chance that Wake Forest is motivated to put the final touches on this season, while Michigan State is likely to want to get the thing over with.

Prediction:  Wake Forest 20, Michigan State 14

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Military Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Temple vs. North Carolina

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD
Time: Friday, December 27 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN

Temple Owls (8-4) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)

A good regional matchup, with both teams getting to play close to home in Maryland.

Vegas line/spread: North Carolina by 4 1/2 (over/under 53)

Strength power rating:   #43 North Carolina 28,  #69 Temple 20      
Adjusted for turnovers: North Carolina 26-19
Median game rating: North Carolina 29-22

Despite a pedestrian 6-6 record the Tar Heels are the favorite by Vegas and the Strength power rating; the adjustments move things a bit toward the Vegas line but stays above it.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -4.5 Spread
Temple	34%	47%
North Carolina	66%	53%

UNC wins 2/3 of the game performance comparisons, with a narrow edge left over after adjusting for the spread.

When Temple has the ball

Temple scoring offense: #96	North Carolina scoring defense: #47
Temple total offense: #95	North Carolina total defense: #66
Temple rushing offense: #102	North Carolina rushing defense: #94
Temple passing offense: #63	North Carolina passing defense: #70

Temple's offense isn't their strong point, but UNC's defense isn't exactly lockdown, so there is some potential here for the Owls. Their ground game is pretty poor but UNC is bad there, too, so Re'Mahn Davis (900 yards) could find some success. The Owls are a better passing team, and again the Tar Heels are equal to the task but the edge could go either way.

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina scoring offense: #47	Temple scoring defense: #41
North Carolina total offense: #9	Temple total defense: #51
North Carolina rushing offense: #43	Temple rushing defense: #38
North Carolina passing offense: #14	Temple passing defense: #16

Our first question is: why? Why does North Carolina rank as a top ten offensive in total yardage (adjusted for opposition) but rank only #47 in adjusted scoring? In other words, why can they run all over the field (pass, probably) but not put the ball in the end zone. Two likely culprits are turnovers and red zone ineffectiveness. And it's not turnovers, as the Tar Heels have only 11 on the season, which is stellar. And they rank a respectable #43 in red zone offense. This may be one of those cases that is best left unsolved. In any case, QB Sam Howell leads a lethal passing game with 3,347 yards and 35 TDs against just 7 picks. Two receivers—Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome—are tied with 947 yards each. Temple's defense is a good match for North Carolina in every area except total offense. Strange.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Temple #103    North Carolina #95

 

Temple's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. Bucknell 56-12
   
2. Maryland 20-17
   
3. @Buffalo 22-38
   
4. Georgia Tech 24-2
   
5. @East Carolina 27-17
   
6. #17 Memphis 30-28
   
7. @SMU 21-45
   
8. Central Florida 21-63
   
9. @South Florida 17-7
   
10. Tulane 29-21
    
11. @#21 Cincinnati 13-15
    
12. Connecticut 49-17

Temple had an interesting year. In week 2 they stifled formerly high-scoring Maryland to turn the tide of the Terps' season. Later they handed #17 Memphis the Tigers' only loss of the season. Their defense was effective against all but the most prolific offenses, as witnessed by the SMU and UCF losses. They finished the season strong, beating USF, Tulane, and UConn (49-17) and almost beating #21 Cincinnati.

 

North Carolina's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. =South Carolina 24-20
   
2. Miami FL 28-25
   
3. @Wake Forest 18-24
   
4. #20 Appalachian St 31-34
   
5. #1 Clemson 20-21
   
6. @Georgia Tech 38-22
   
7. @Virginia Tech 41-43 6OT
   
8. Duke 20-17
   
9. #24 Virginia 31-38
   
10. @Pittsburgh 27-34 OT
    
11. Mercer 56-7
    
12. @North Carolina St 41-10

North Carolina only lost to bowl teams—including 3 in the top 25—but they only beat one bowl-bound squad, Miami in game 2. The Tar Heels went 2-0, then lost six of their next 8—two in overtime—then closed with two strong wins to hit the magic 6-6. Pretty much all their games were at the same level, except for maybe the big 41-10 win over rival NC State at the end, and their best game by far, the 1-point loss to defending national champ Clemson. That game was such an outlier that it almost has to be chalked up to a flub by Clemson rather than out-of-the-blue greatness from an otherwise ridiculously consistent team. This consistency will serve UNC well in the bowl game, where they seem very unlikely to lay an egg. They have two modes: pretty good, and a little better than good. What's remarkable is how another touchdown per game makes them undefeated, and even another field goal in regulation and the Tar Heels are around 10-2. Conversely, they could also have finished 3-9.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Temple's season: +0 wins; North Carolina's season: +4 wins
• Temple's momentum: -2 wins; North Carolina's momentum: +0 wins
• Temple glad to be here? yes; North Carolina glad to be here: YES
• Temple time zones from home: 0; North Carolina time zones from home: 0
• Temple coaching situation: unchanged; North Carolina coaching situation: unchanged

Temple may have had higher hopes when they were 5-1, but once they were 5-3 they just needed to make a bowl game. North Carolina needed two wins at the end to go 6-6, and that followed a 2-10 campaign in 2018, so the Tar Heels feel doubly fortunate to be in a bowl at all, let alone a somewhat decent one.

Final analysis

Both teams finished the season strong, with UNC getting the two wins they needed at the end, and Temple going 3-1 and playing well. Both teams should be at their best for the bowl game.

Looking at the numbers, Temple's offense should struggle to make headway against the Tar Heels. But North Carolina's offense is a bit of a mystery. They pass the ball very well, and rack up yardage, but that doesn't translate to points. Temple has been good at bottling up teams this year, and their red zone defense is #4 in the nation.

Temple played great over their last four games, and very consistently. North Carolina was consistent all year save the outlier Clemson game. Using both of these averages makes for a very close game—and North Carolina is no stranger to close games, with 9 of their 12 contests ending within a touchdown. And against the 7 bowl teams they played the Tar Heels were 1-6, with every game a tight one. Temple was 1-1 in close games against bowl opponents, but lost big to three others.

We predict that North Carolina will outgain Temple by several hundred yards, but be mysteriously unable to convert that yardage to scoring and thus fall to the Owls in yet another narrow loss for the Tar Heels.

Prediction:  Temple 22, North Carolina 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Quick Lane Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI
Time: Thursday, December 26 at 8:00pm ET
TV: ESPN

Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6)

Normally, Power 5 conference teams have worse records than Group of Five conference opponents. When there is an exception, the Power 5 team will likely be favored heavily.

Vegas line/spread: Pittsburgh by 11 (over/under 49)

Strength power rating:   #64 Pittsburgh 25,  #99 Eastern Michigan 19    
Adjusted for turnovers: Pittsburgh 28-17
Median game rating: Pittsburgh 28-17

As expected, Pitt is a heavy favorite to beat Eastern Michigan. It's not that the Panthers are a great team, in fact, they're about average for the FBS. But Eastern Michigan is well below average, and needed an easy schedule to become bowl-eligible. Our power rating makes Pitt a 6 point favorite, a bit lower than the Vegas spread which is somewhat rare. We do give Eastern Michigan partial home field advantage for playing close to home in-state, so that's part of it. 

Note that when we correct for turnovers, and when we use median rather than mean average Strength, we come up with an 11 point spread just like Vegas.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -11 Spread
Pittsburgh	63%	58%
Eastern Michigan	37%	42%

Comparing game performances, Pitt wins the majority (giving the Eagles partial HFA still), but doesn't win the majority against the spread.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Pittsburgh scoring offense: #106	Eastern Michigan scoring defense: #106
Pittsburgh total offense: #94	Eastern Michigan total defense: #113
Pittsburgh rushing offense: #114	Eastern Michigan rushing defense: #92
Pittsburgh passing offense: #52	Eastern Michigan passing defense: #120

If you were wondering why the over/under for this game is so low, wonder no more. Pitt, the favorite, has a deplorable offense—their defense is responsible for most of their wins, and staying close in their losses. They don't score, they don't gain yards, they can't run the ball—but they can pass fairly well. Kenny Pickett has 2,737 yards on the season, but only 10 touchdown throws (hence the #106 scoring offense). The good news for Pitt is that Eastern Michigan nearly has a bottom 10 pass defense. And the Eagles' #106 rating in scoring defense makes them the equal of Pitt on offense. This is why our score estimates for Pitt are in line with the average score in an FBS game (around 28 points).

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Michigan scoring offense: #92	Pittsburgh scoring defense: #28
Eastern Michigan total offense: #88	Pittsburgh total defense: #11
Eastern Michigan rushing offense: #123	Pittsburgh rushing defense: #36
Eastern Michigan passing offense: #26	Pittsburgh passing defense: #8

Here's the other reason the over/under is low: Eastern Michigan has a bad offense too. Interestingly, it's arguably better than Pitt's with a better scoring offense and total offense, even after adjustment for schedule. They run the ball even worse than Pitt but pass the ball better than the Panthers. QB Mike Glass has 2,858 yards on the year and 22 TDs, and he's the team's #2 rusher as well. Pitt's defense is very solid overall and particularly against the pass, ranking #8 on a per-play, adjusted metric.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Pittsburgh #111    Eastern Michigan #70

Games are only sometimes won with special teams, but it can happen. Here the Eagles get hope more from Pitt's low ranking than their own aptitude.

 

Pittsburgh's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. #24 Virginia 14-30
   
2. Ohio U. 20-10
   
3. @#10 Penn State 10-17
   
4. Central Florida 35-34
   
5. Delaware 17-14
   
6. @Duke 33-30
   
7. @Syracuse 27-20
   
8. Miami FL 12-16
   
9. @Georgia Tech 20-10
   
10. North Carolina 34-27 OT
    
11. @Virginia Tech 0-28
    
12. Boston College 19-26

Pitt lost their home opener to Virginia, a team that would finish in the Playoff Committee top 25. They beat Ohio and then played their best game in a 17-10 road loss to Penn State; the very next game they got their biggest win, becoming the first team to beat UCF in a regular-season game in two years. They won five of their next six but laid an egg at Virginia Tech, getting shut out. They lost at home to B.C. to end the season 7-5 and consequently, they're playing in Detroit in December.

Eastern Michigan's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. @Coastal Carolina 30-23
   
2. @Kentucky 17-38
   
3. @Illinois 34-31
   
4. Central Conn St 34-29
   
5. @Central Michigan 16-42
   
6. Ball St 23-29
   
7. Western Michigan 34-27
   
8. @Toledo 34-37 OT
   
9. Buffalo 14-43
   
10. @Akron 42-14
    
11. @Northern Illinois 45-17
    
12. Kent St 26-34

 

Eastern Michigan's season was up and down but in the end they did enough to get a bowl bid. The win over Illinois, at the time, was an indictment against the Fighting Illini but looks more impressive in retrospect for the Eagles. So does beating Western Michigan, and their 45-17 beatdown of Northern Illinois. On the other hand, the 42-16 loss to Central Michigan, losing at all to Ball State, and especially the 43-14 home loss to Buffalo show that the Eagles can be very, very bad at times. Even the win over Central Connecticut was lousy. Basically the Eagles played 4 good games, 6 lousy ones, and a few average ones. No one can say they don't have range!

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Pittsburgh's season: +0 wins; Eastern Michigan's season: -1 win
• Pittsburgh's momentum: -1 win; Eastern Michigan's momentum: +0 wins
• Pittsburgh glad to be here? no; Eastern Michigan glad to be here: yes
• Pittsburgh time zones from home: 0; Eastern Michigan time zones from home: 0
• Pittsburgh coaching situation: unchanged; Eastern Michigan coaching situation: unchanged

It's hard to imagine Pitt really wanted to go to the Quick Lane Bowl at the beginning of the season. To be fair, expectations often change mid-season and if a team is unlikely to make it to a bowl game, then any bowl game is better than none. However, Pitt was 7-3 and had a chance to go 9-3 with an outside chance to play in the ACC championship game. Instead they lost their last two games, both winnable, and ended up here.

Eastern Michigan on the other hand was never in position to aspire to much more than playing in Detroit, which is not a bad thing when it's less than an hour from campus. At 6-6 you take what you can get, and playing near home means they'll at least have some fans there.

Final analysis

The good news for football fans who happen to catch this game (willingly or not) is that since neither team can run the ball at all, they will probably be going to the air. Pitt is a so-so passing team, but the Eagle pass defense is terrible. Eastern Michigan is a very good passing team, but they are up against a great Pitt pass defense. This gives Pitt the edge but anything can happen when teams start slinging the ball around.

It's interesting that the spread is wider than our Strength power rating predicts; we are usually out in front of the spread. But it's also interesting that when we correct for turnovers (giving credit, actually, to teams with lots of turnovers since turnovers are fairly random), or use each team's median performance, we get the same 11 point spread as Vegas does.

But given our idea that Pitt is unmotivated—and probably still overconfident, playing a MAC team with a worse record—we definitely aren't picking them against the spread. It's possible that they regroup, and if the Eagles play poorly then Pitt might blow out Eastern Michigan like three teams already did this year. But early bowl games are ruled by psychology and it would take a lot to motivate me if I were in their shoes. So it's either an upset win for the Eagles, or a narrow win for Pitt.

Pitt lost five times but no loss was to a team that was definitely worse than them. They got a couple of upsets—UCF by 1, UNC in overtime—but they pretty much played to the script. Did Eastern Michigan upset anyone?  Yes, they beat Illinois, a team that proved better than Pitt (but probably wasn't at the time). They also beat Western Michigan, a team roughly equal to Pitt. Neither of those teams has the defense Pitt has, though.

That would mean Eastern Michigan was rising to the occasion, and that's not the narrative here. We think the Eagles will play a normal game (whatever that is, we can't predict) and Pitt will be somewhat subdued, but the defense will still have enough pride to keep Eastern Michigan's lame offense in check. Pitt wins a really low-scoring game by a small amount.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh 16, Eastern Michigan 14

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.