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National Championship in New Orleans, LA
Time: Monday, January 13 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#1 LSU Tigers (14-0) vs. #3 Clemson Tigers (14-0)
For the 2nd straight year there will be two 14-0 teams vying for the national championship. Last year it was Clemson and Alabama; this year it will be Clemson and another SEC team: LSU.
Vegas line/spread: LSU by 5.5 (over/under 69.5)
LSU started out a hefty 5-point favorite and it's gone up a half point since.
Strength power rating: #2 LSU 35, #3 Clemson 34
Adjusted for turnovers: LSU 33-29
Median game rating: Clemson 33-32
Clemson and LSU are basically tied in our Strength power rating, but we give LSU partial home field advantage for playing in their own backyard and they makes them about a 1 1/2 point favorite. Both teams rely heavily on turnovers, Clemson a bit more. LSU's recent big outlier games are discounted by the Median comparison which also erases Clemson's one poor outing, making them a narrow favorite there.
As our power rating calls the game a lot closer than Vegas, we see LSU taking a very narrow majority straight up and Clemson winning vs. the opening spread most of the time. These comparisons do give LSU partial HFA; they don't weigh recent games more, which is one reason LSU is a bigger favorite by the oddsmakers.
When LSU has the ball
LSU's offense is pretty incredible, ranking #2 in adjusted scoring and #1 in adjusted total yardage. But unlike Oklahoma's very questionable defense, they are now up against the best defense in college football. We correctly forecast a huge LSU blowout win against the Sooners because Oklahoma's red zone defense was #126; Clemson's is a reasonable #17, and they are #1 in scoring defense and in total yardage adjusted for opposition.
LSU lives by the pass (#2 in the nation), and they are decent on the ground, too. Against Oklahoma Joe Burrow threw for 7 touchdowns and 493 yards. Clemson is #2 against the pass in per-play adjusted stats, whereas the Sooners were #12. LSU will have a much harder time getting yards in the air or on the ground against Clemson than they did against Oklahoma.
Joe Burrow rightly won the Heisman for his 2019 season. After the Oklahoma game he now has 5,208 yards and an insane 55 TDs vs. 6 interceptions. Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson combine for almost 3,000 receiving yards with 18 TD catches apiece. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 1,304 yards and 16 TDs—he's a big part of why their red zone offense is so good. He wasn't 100% for the Oklahoma game and ran the ball only twice; with 2 weeks to recover he should be fully ready to go against Clemson.
Clemson's defense is a whole different beast than Okahoma's. They have 41 sacks on the year and 19 interceptions, constituting a big-play threat to slow down Burrows. They're tied for #1 in non-sack tackles for loss, too.
When Clemson has the ball
Clemson has one of the top offenses in the country by any measure, while LSU has a solid but not impenetrable defense. The yardage matchups are pretty similar in terms of rushing and passing, with both teams in the top 20 all around.
Clemson's Travis Etienne has 1,536 yards on the ground and Lyn-J Dixon and QB Trevor Lawrence combine for another 1,000+. Through the air, Lawrence accounts for 3,431 yards and 36 TDs with 8 interceptions, and his ratio over the last 11 games is 31:3. Tee Higgins (1,115 yards) is the long-ball receiver while Justyn Ross (61 rec) is the top target.
LSU's defense isn't the equal of the Ohio State defense that Clemson just faced. It mostly rises to the occasion, but other times has had lapses. They have 35 sacks and 17 picks on the season, led by Darrel Stingley Jr.'s six.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): LSU #86 Clemson #121
Sadly, the two teams competing for the national title are relatively piss-poor when it comes to special teams, with Clemson ranking in the bottom ten! After missing one vs. Ohio State, Clemson's kickers are now 13 of 22 on field goals for the year which isn't good in a projected close game.
LSU's season (14-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (10)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Georgia Southern 55-3
- @Texas 45-38
- Northwestern St 65-14
- @Vanderbilt 66-38
- Utah St 42- 6
- #9 Florida 42-28
- @Mississippi St 36-13
- #12 Auburn 23-20
- @#13 Alabama 46-41
- @Mississippi 58-37
- Arkansas 56-20
- Texas A&M 50-7
- @#5 Georgia 37-10
- =#4 Oklahoma 63-28
LSU never had a bad game on offense. They had a few on defense: game #4, giving up 38 at Vanderbilt, and game #10, giving up 37 at Mississippi. The rest of the games were at least decent and sometimes great, like games 1, 5, 7, and 8. And then there were the amazing last three games, but we'll get to that.
When we say they never played a bad game on offense, we really mean they rarely played a less-than-awesome offensive game. At least 7 games were off-the-charts great, like games 1, 4, 6, 9, and 10. And of course the final three games.
In all, LSU beat 10 bowl teams and five top 25 teams. The first three wins were close: #9 Florida by 14, #12 Auburn by 3, #13 Alabama by 5. The other two are part of their final three games. Here we go:
First, 50-7 over Texas A&M. We can see how amazing this win is by comparing it to the Aggies 4 other losses, to #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #12 Auburn, and #13 Alabama. They lost those games by 14, 6, 8, and 19 points. LSU beat them by 43 points. LSU scored more on them than any of those four ranked teams, and held them to fewer points than any of the four did.
Almost the equal of that was the 37-10 beatdown of #5 Georgia, and the 63-28 demolition of #4 Oklahoma, neither of which need any explanation as to why they are incredible performances.
These three games were LSU playing 20 points better than they did on average for the season—which of course, includes those three games in the calculation. Put another way, they've played about 26 points better than they did over the first 11 games.
Clemson's season (14-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Georgia Tech 52-14
- Texas A&M 24-10
- @Syracuse 41-6
- UNC-Charlotte 52-10
- @North Carolina 21-20
- Florida St 45-14
- @Louisville 45-10
- Boston College 59-7
- Wofford 59-14
- @North Carolina St 55-10
- Wake Forest 52-3
- @South Carolina 38-3
- =#24 Virginia 62-17
- =#2 Ohio State 29-23
Clemson beat almost as many bowl-eligible opponents as LSU, but they only beat two Playoff Committee top 25 teams—#24 Virginia, in the ACC championship game, and of course #2 Ohio State to advance to the championship game.
Clemson's worst game was of course at North Carolina, where they were lucky to avoid a loss that might have put them out of the playoff. Since then they've gotten better, and there seems to be an upward curve to their game play, culminating in their best games yet vs. Wake Forest, Virginia, and Ohio State. Mainly it's on offense, where they've played a lot better in the last seven games.
Clemson's last four games have been almost as dominant as LSU's last three games, so it's really a clash of two top teams at their very best. We thought Clemson might be a bit rusty at facing top competition—and maybe they were as Ohio State built a 16-0 lead—but they recovered well and LSU won't be a shock to their system.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- LSU's season: +4 wins; Clemson's season: +0 wins
- LSU's momentum: +0 wins; Clemson's momentum: +0 wins
- LSU glad to be here? YES; Clemson glad to be here: YES
- LSU time zones from home: 0; Clemson time zones from home: 1;
- LSU coaching situation: unchanged; Clemson coaching situation: unchanged
LSU finished last season 10-3 post-bowl game, and after one bowl game this year's squad has 14 wins. Clemson was 14-0 at this point last year. That does reflect what has to be a bit of extra hunger in LSU that can't be matched by Clemson, and in the past has made a difference in national title games with defending champs attempting to repeat. The other psychological factor here is home field advantage, another thing that has been a factor in national championship games in the past.
Here is the history of defending national champions playing for the national title, since 1991:
- 1992 11-0 Miami (-8): LOST to Alabama (12-0), 34-13
- 1995 11-0 Nebraska (-3): beat Florida (12-0) 62-24
- 2000 11-1 Florida State (-10): LOST to Oklahoma (12-0) 13-2
- 2002 12-0 Miami (-11): LOST to Ohio State (13-0) 31-24 2OT.
- 2005 12-0 USC (-7): LOST to Texas (12-0) 41-38
- 2012 12-1 Alabama (-10) beat Notre Dame (12-0) 42-14
- 2016 14-0 Alabama (-6) LOST to Clemson (13-1) 35-31
- 2018 14-0 Alabama (-5) LOST to Clemson (14-0) 44-16
There are two things to note: one, defending national champions are just 2-6 when defending their crown. And two, the defending national champion has always been the favorite, at least in the last 30 years. So while the odds seem against Clemson, the oddsmakers are against them too which makes this an unusual situation. You can look at the games above, and in the six losses overconfidence was clearly an issue in most of them. Does being an underdog erase that? The other probable issue was that the other team was hungrier; that issue doesn't go away.
Here is the recent history of national championship games played on a home field, or nearly so:
- 1983 Miami 31, Nebraska 30 in Miami FL
- 1987 Miami 20, Oklahoma 14 in Miami FL
- 1994 Nebraska 24, Miami 17 in Miami FL
- 2003 LSU 21, Oklahoma 14 in New Orleans, LA
- 2003 USC 28, Michigan 14 in Pasadena, CA
- 2005 Texas 41, USC 38 in Pasadena, CA
- 2007 LSU 38, Ohio State 24 in New Orleans, LA
- 2011 Alabama 21, LSU 0 in New Orleans, LA
- 2017 Alabama 26, Georgia 23 in Atlanta, GA
In nine games, the "home" team won 5 times. Probably the three most relevant cases are the 2003, 2007, and 2011 appearances of LSU in New Orleans; the Tigers won the first two but lost to Alabama (despite having beaten the Tide in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year).
Final analysis
Without considering anything else, our power rating pretty much punts on this comparison; we get Clemson by 6/10th of a point. If judge each team's game against an FCS program—blowouts over Northwestern State and Wofford—as inconsequential and throw them out, we get LSU by a quarter point. So there's not much difference between these teams. They match up well on offense and defense, vs. the run and vs. the pass.
But a host of other factors favor LSU: Clemson being defending national champ, LSU playing near home, and LSU playing extremely well in the last few games.
Six of the last eight defending national champs have lost their attempt to repeat, doing an average of about 7 1/2 points worse than expected. I think much of this is due to overconfidence, which Clemson won't have as the Vegas underdog, but LSU will be just a bit hungrier, which probably is the other explanation for why it is so hard to repeat even when you're one game away.
LSU has won the national title two of the three times they've played for it in New Orleans. They're 4-1 in the Sugar Bowl since the year 2000. How much is their partial home field advantage worth? Hard to say but it's more than zero, and less than the normal 3.5 points.
LSU has played three of the best games of any team recently in beating Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma by 43, 27, and 35 points. Clemson counters with recent wins over Wake Forest, Virginia, and Ohio State by 49, 35, and 6, but LSU's performances are roughly 5 points better (and may explain the Vegas spread).
Add these all together and you have a likely LSU victory, probably by about 10 points if the adjustments are cumulative. But are there any adjustments that favor Clemson?
Maybe. After the Oklahoma game, some LSU players seemed to be getting on the verge of overconfident. We figured Clemson would be the ones to fall prey to that, but since they're underdogs it's very unlikely. Now LSU is the one who might have to be considered cocky. Especially when you have players saying things like "we go into every game thinking no one can stop us." Is that good cocky, or just good confidence? Might be the latter. But how about, "I don't see how a defense can stop us" ? That one seems delusional. After facing Oklahoma, LSU will probably find out how a defense can stop them when they face Clemson.
It might mean the LSU offense will face adversity like it hasn't in some time. And it's bound to fire up Clemson's defense, which is definitely capable of holding LSU to half the points they scored on Oklahoma. LSU's overconfidence doesn't get rid of their other advantages. But after thinking about it a while, I think it could be the deciding factor in a close game.
Prediction: Clemson 31, LSU 30
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
