All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 6
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 11
Record: 22-11
Conference: WCC
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 7:20 pm Eastern
Location: Hartford, CT
Region: South
Channel: TBS
The last five years, Villanova had these seed: 2, 1, 2, 1, and 1. Now the defending national champs enter the tournament as a lowly 6-seed.
Villanova St. Mary's
Power Ratings
Strength: #30 Strength: #40
Pomeroy: #26 Pomeroy: #31
Offense: #16 Offense: #21
Defense: #73 Defense: #55
BPI: #21 BPI: #34
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #39
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #332 Tempo: #347
Schedule Strength: #53 Schedule Strength: #76
Consistency: #142 Consistency: #317
Consist. Modifier: #27 Consist. Modifier: #51
2nd half season: #27 2nd half season: #38
Last 6 games: #24 Last 6 games: #25
Road Strength: #25 Road Strength: #41
Injury Modifier: #31 Injury Modifier: #41
There's not much space between these teams, at least not as much as their seedings would suggest. That's because Villanova might be a weak 6-seed (Strength and Pomeroy say so, but BPI and LRMC disagree) while St. Mary's is a strong 11-seed by everyone's estimation. The LRMC gives the widest berth between the teams at 16 positions while Pomeroy has them separated by a mere 5 places. Both offenses are better than the other team's corresponding defenses, but the slow-as-molasses tempo played by both teams on offense should keep the fireworks to a minimum.
St. Mary's is the less-consistent team, and the Modifier docks them for that in terms of their potential for a deep run, but it really helps them in terms of getting an upset. A lot of their low consistency, incidentally, is due to their final-game win over Gonzaga. Both teams improved slightly in their 2nd half of season play, and both played well over the last 6 games, to the point where they are almost equivalent. Again, the Gaels' win over Gonzaga looms large there.
Season overview: Villanova
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(4)Florida St.+6, (11)Temple+10, (11)St. John's+5, (10)Seton Hall+28, (5)Marquette+6, =(10)Seton Hall+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (2)Michigan-27, @(4)Kansas-3, @(5)Marquette-1, @(11)St. John's-6, @(10)Seton Hall-4
- Other losses (4): Furman-OT, @Penn-3, @Georgetown-12, @Xavier-12
Overview: Villanova had a few dark moments early in the season, where the team's outlook was very poor. First, they were destroyed by Michigan 73-46 and subsequently lost to Furman. They won 6 straight, beating 4-seed FSU, before losing back to back again to Penn and Kansas. At 8-4, things didn't look great, but the Wildcats won an incredible 11 straight to stand 19-4. Adversity hit again as they lost 4 out of 5, but they recovered yet again to beat 5-seed Marquette and then win the Big East tournament. Villanova just needs to go on one of these long runs during the tournament and they'll repeat as champs.
It's no secret, though, that this team isn't as good as last year's model. For one thing, the 2019 Wildcats take even more threes while they are not nearly as good of a shooting team. And the defense has slipped a lot. Still, they're among the top offenses, led by Phil Booth's 18.6 ppg and Eric Paschall's 16.5.
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Season overview: St. Mary's
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): @(12)New Mexico St.+15, =(1)Gonzaga+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(8)Utah St.-17, =(5)Mississippi St.-4, (13)UC Irvine-5, =(3)LSU-4, @(1)Gonzaga-48, (1)Gonzaga-14
- Other losses (5): Harvard-6, @Western Kentucky-3, @San Francisco-4, @BYU-5, @Pepperdine-OT
Overview: St. Mary's season was up and down, that's for sure. They garnered a solid win over 12-seed New Mexico State early, only to lose 4 in a row, including losses to tourney teams Utah State, Mississippi State, and UC Irvine. They gave 3-seed LSU a good game before losing 78-74, and a few more losses later the Gaels were 9-7 and not looking like a Big Dance team. They did better in conference play, and their play vs. Gonzaga shows their progress. The first loss was a 94-46 humiliation (game 25). The second meeting was a much more reasonable 69-55 loss at home. And in the WCC tournament final, they beat the Zags solidly, 60-47, easily their best win.
One interesting thing about St. Mary's offense is the lack of assists: they are #353—dead last—in assists per field goal made. It doesn't seem to hurt their offense, which ranks in the top 25 in efficiency. They don't shoot a lot of 3's but they make them at a good clip. Guard Jordan Ford (21.3 ppg) is one of the top scorers in the nation, which is all the more impressive for being on such a slow-tempo team.
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Game Analysis: The Gaels look great in recent play, ranking #12 in raw averages over the last 6 games. That's largely due to St. Mary's win over Gonzaga, a game that clearly doesn't paint an accurate picture of either team. Gonzaga had won the 2 previous meeting by a total of 62 points, so it's understandable that the Bulldogs were not hyped for the game. St. Mary's needed the win for an NCAA berth, however. A great win, but one that is easily overstated. We correct for outliers when evaluating recent play, which puts St. Mary's at a more reasonable #25, but if they can manage another game like their last one, they can beat anyone.
A big issue with this matchup is the game location. Hartford, Connecticut is still a 3-hour+ drive from where Villanova plays, so it can't really be called a home court. But St. Mary's is a 45-hour drive from Hartford...or more realistically, a 6 hour flight not including connections. In other words, it's at least twice as long of a flight for St. Mary's as it would be a drive for Villanova. And they cross three time zones, adding the possibility of jet lag. Villanova fans will realistically greatly outnumber St. Mary's fans and make for a near-home-court situation.
Psychologically, Villanova has bounced back every time it looked like their season might go off the rails. St. Mary's has fought back, too, but it seems that beating Gonzaga on the 3rd try and making the tournament was their shining moment; can we say they might have blown their wad? Yes, we said it.
Vegas Line:
Villanova by 5
Power rating: spread
Villanova by 1.7 (* 4.7 w/home court)
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Villanova: 54.9% (* 63%)
St. Mary's: 45.1% (* 37%)
Vegas has wayyyy more confidence in Villanova than our power rating does; our game-comparison model puts the Wildcats at 55%, quite a bit below the historic norm of 63%. Perhaps Villanova's history of tournament success has oddsmakers going their way, but remember that they lost in the 2nd round in 2014, 2015, and 2017 as a 2-, 1-, and 1-seed. So losing in the opener as a 6-seed would hardly be earth-shattering.
It really looks like the oddsmakers are treating this game as a home game for Villanova, which is not a bad idea realistically. That would change our estimate to 4.7 points, and increase Villanova's odds of winning to 63%.
Bottom line: It might be pretty even on paper, but the oddsmakers are right, the pseudo-home-court for Villanova tips the scales to the Wildcats.
Final prediction: Villanova 67, St. Mary's 64
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
