SportsRatings

Five weeks in and the Playoff picture has hardly evolved, let alone changed drastically. One small change this week, which could be reversed, otherwise business as usual. Notre Dame is still on top despite a tepid win over UNC; they added to their Playoff Odds and are still the only team above 50% to finish in the top 4. It did ding their National Title odds, making #2 Georgia the new favorite to win it all. The Bulldogs handled Vandy easily and remained the SEC favorite headed into a showdown with #4 Alabama , who now ranks as the best team in the country per unbiased power ratings after taking down Mississippi State 56-23. Texas was idle before the Oklahoma game. That gives the SEC three of the four "bye" spots, a situation that will rectify itself but since Texas plays neither the Bulldogs nor the Tide it might take a while and the SEC could end up with two teams in the top four. Projected Playoff picture for games through 10/03/2026 ...

With only 4 games down so far, there is a big discrepancy with some teams between how they rate in FBS games vs. All Games, the latter being when FCS games are factored in (our All-Division Strength power rating). The reason is that a 3-game sample is small enough for some messy data, and adding an extra game into the mix can change a lot. Some teams struggled with their FCS foe or blew them away, changing their rating. Over the weeks these two different rankings will draw much closer together, but never completely come to a full consensus. Here are some of the biggest ranking differences. Utah is #1 if you don't count their 66-14 win over Idaho, which doesn't seem that bad, it just wasn't up to the level of their FBS games so far. Not #1 worthy. #3/7 Georgia beat Tennessee State 63-3 and still they are lower when that game is counted (it was their "worst" game by 9 points). Notre Dame has played all FBS teams so their rank isn't very different, and #4/5 Al...

We've reached the point where "idle" is playing a lot of games. Six of our projected Final Top 25 play vs. idle this week, and we'll be seeing that the rest of the year. Oh well. That's the trade-off for playing real opponents, as almost everyone is playing an intra-conference game. Two idle teams ( Utah and Ole Miss ) are at #12 and #13, knocking on the door of the Playoff, while #10 Oregon is trying to hold their projected spot. Utah is #1 in Strength for FBS games only, so we're eager to have the Utes back on the field to see if that small sample size holds up. #20 UCLA , also idle, has to be champing at the bit to get back on the field following their breakthrough Maryland win. There are only two intra-Top 25 games though: #6 Alabama at #24 Mississippi State , and #9 Ohio State vs. #23 Iowa . Both the underdogs are playing at home which makes it interesting. Really good opportunity for both, as they are expected to lose and remain borderline-top-25; a ...

Lots of FCS teams play FBS teams. Quite a few play two FBS teams. But only Mercyhurst dares to play 3 FBS teams in one season. Did they do well? Not exactly.  @ New Mexico State L 51-14 @ New Mexico L 70-7 @ W. Kentucky L 52-7 Ouch. That's a combined 173-28 over three games. The Lakers (that's their name) are from Erie Pennsylvania, which makes one wonder why they played two New Mexico teams, but that's their business (answer: they made $700K and didn't fly home between the games!) Needless to say they don't rate very high in the Strength Power Rating, which currently considers them an FBS team because they have 3 FBS games.   #   Team                         rec    Overall       Strength     Success 138. Ball St 1-3 -28.71 [138] -26.74 [138] -1.97 [126] 139. Mercyhurst* 0-3 -56.65 [139] -50.66 [139] -5.98 [139] Currently...

There has been remarkably little shuffle in the projected Playoff teams since the pre-season, with 8 of the original top 11 still listed. But of the three that fell out, two of those dropped out this week. Notre Dame holds court again at #1, this will stand until either the Irish lose or a top conference team closes in on 13-0. That team might be Georgia or Texas , both of whom can go 12-0. The Longhorns escaped Tennessee while the Bulldogs crushed Oklahoma 41-13, both good enough for a double-digit odds gain but Georgia sits at #2 and is the new SEC favorite. Alabama surged as well after crushing South Carolina 49-18. The ACC and Big Twelve still rate one team, with Miami and Texas Tech the favorites, though the Red Raiders are feeling some pressure from the other top Big Twelve teams. Record Playoff Bye Bowl Elig Champs LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds % chg Odds Odds % chg Odds % chg ...

Week 4's big games include #3 Texas at #21 Tennessee , #11 Oregon at #19 USC , #12 LSU at #17 Texas A&M .  All the higher-projected teams (Texas, Oregon, LSU) play on the road which makes it interesting.  Tennessee has a huge opportunity to launch themselves into the Playoff picture. Texas probably stays in the Playoff zone even with a loss, given their win over Ohio State. USC has the same opportunity, but it will be a big test for their defense which has given up 26 or more points three times already this season, playing a team that just scored 84 points! It's also a must-win for Oregon who already has a loss. LSU at Texas A&M might be an elimination game for the Playoff as the loser will have two early losses. Note that our power rating favors the Aggies by a point while Vegas has LSU by over a touchdown. The latter seems more realistic given the teams' prior performances. Other big games include #5  Georgia vs. Oklahoma, maybe the Sooners' last sta...

Week 3 concluded with very few upsets and in general, the top teams underperforming, but since they all did there wasn't much movement. But three teams entered (and three exited) the Playoffs, but most weren't from big jumps. Notre Dame remained #1 despite a tepid 27-10 win over Michigan State. Indiana's 38-0 win over Western Kentucky did nothing to push them (the Hoosiers gained 0.0% Playoff Odds) and Texas only roughly caught up to Indiana after beating UTSA 30-6. None of these wins were close to what our power rating expected .  Texas Tech and Georgia both moved up four spots however; the Red Raiders got a win over Houston and the Bulldogs clobbered Arkansas 45-17 (plus they beat WKU by 50 last week, 12 more than Indiana). Miami underperformed a bit vs. Wake Forest and dropped 2 spots (with rising numbers though). The big game was Mississippi's defeat of LSU , which bumped Ole Miss to #7 and pushed LSU out of the Playoff—but only by one rung, and LSU's Pla...