SportsRatings: College Football

Committee update: Little change from sunday

Hardly a change since 11/30/2024 as the Committee largely reflects the AP poll, which we used on Sunday to project the final top 25.

We show SMU with around a 2.7% chance of staying in with a loss, giving Alabama a 97.4% chance of making it (and Indiana somehow a 99.9% chance as they get passed by the Tide once in 1,000 trials).

 LW  Rnk Team             CFPC   Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon             1   *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.4   +1.1
  3   2. Texas              2   *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.2   +4.6
  5   3. Notre Dame         4    Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   25.2   +8.5
  6   4. Penn State         3    B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.9    3.6   +1.6
  4   5. Georgia            5    SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.8    6.3   -2.5
  1   6. Ohio State         6    B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   13.5  -11.6
  9   7. SMU                8   *ACC    11-1     62.6   -1.7    2.4   +1.1
  8   8. Tennessee          7    SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    5.6   +0.9
 11   9. Indiana            9    B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama           11    SEC     9-3     97.4  +12.1    7.8   -1.0
 12  11. Mississippi       13    SEC     9-3      0.0  -14.3    0.0   -1.5
  7  12. Miami FL          12    ACC    10-2      0.0  -92.2    0.0   -3.8
 13  13. Boise St          10   *MWC    11-1     62.8   -1.4    0.3    0.0
 15  14. South Carolina    14    SEC     9-3      0.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0
 16  15. Arizona St        15    B12    10-2     48.4  +14.1    0.5   +0.3
 19  16. Iowa St           16   *B12    10-2     51.6  +36.9    0.7   +0.5
 14  17. Brigham Young     18    B12    10-2      0.0  -45.0    0.0   -0.6
 18  18. Clemson           17    ACC     9-3     40.1  +38.5    0.7   +0.7
 24  19. Missouri          19    SEC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 22  20. Colorado          23    B12     9-3      0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 21  21. UNLV              20    MWC    10-2     37.2  +30.7    0.0    0.0
 25  22. Illinois          21    B10     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 40  23. Syracuse          22    ACC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 17  24. Tulane            --    AAc     9-3      0.0  -32.9    0.0   -0.5
 23  25. Army              24    AAc    10-1      0.0   -0.2    0.0    0.0

But this isn't really what we want to see. All these positions are "super-positions" of where some of the teams would be if they win and lose at a certain rate. Penn State, for example, comes in at an average of #4, split between the times they win (where they might be #1) and when they lose (where they might be around #8). Texas? Between #1 and #6. Oregon between #1 and #3. Georgia could be anywhere from #2 to #7, maybe even #9. Note that Arizona State and Iowa State remain #15 and #16 because it's such a coin flip between the two. So let's make things more concrete. First, we'll have SMU lose a close game and see how Alabama's odds change:

Looks like Alabama's odds fall to 93.3%. They most often miss when Georgia loses to Texas, which makes sense: will the Committee keep not just one 3-loss SEC teams in the Playoff, but two?

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 11   9. Indiana                 B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     93.3   +8.0    7.8   -1.0
  9  11. SMU                    *ACC    11-1      6.7  -57.6    0.1   -1.2

Ok that's interesting but what about all the other teams, where do they really finish? I'm not going to page through all of the possibilities between the five games (32 permutations) not to mention what if one team blows out the other (now that's about 4 results for each game instead of 2, making for 1024 possibilities). But here's what we see if the favorites win:

  1. Oregon                     13-0
  2. Texas                      12-1
  3. Notre Dame                 11-1
  4. SMU                        12-1
  5. Ohio State                 10-2
  6. Penn State                 11-2
  7. Tennessee                  10-2
  8. Georgia                    10-3
  9. Indiana                    11-1
 10. Boise St                   12-1
 11. Alabama                     9-3
 12. Mississippi                 9-3
 13. Miami FL                   10-2
 14. Iowa St                    11-2
 15. South Carolina              9-3
 16. Brigham Young              10-2
 17. Arizona St                 10-3
 18. Missouri                    9-3
 19. Clemson                     9-4
 20. Colorado                    9-3
 21. Illinois                    9-3
 22. Syracuse                    9-3
 23. UNLV                       10-3
 24. Tulane                     10-3
 25. Louisiana-Lafayette        11-2

Oregon of course is #1 and Texas remains #2, with Notre Dame moving into #3 while SMU takes the #4 spot at 12-1. Penn State falls to #6 just below Ohio State which makes sense as the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions. Georgia does fall below Tennessee when they beat the Vols so that might not happen. Also it's doubtful Ole Miss will pass Miami. The rest stays the same in the top ranks from the Committee's rankings. Then Iowa State moves up to #14, Clemson drops back a bit to #19, Tulane does come in at #24 with Army dropping out altogether, and Memphis replaced by Louisiana-Lafayette (who wins the Sun Belt). Memphis might just be #24 and Tulane #25 in that case, but we're not too worried about the whole top 25.

Now if all the favorites win, but SMU loses, the Mustangs end up #11 almost all the time, that's the key takeaway. The 6.7% is for all scenarios, and with this being the most common scenario that number is probably reduced quite a bit.

2024 week 14: Alabama in; Notre Dame the national title favorite?

With just the conference title games left the field is almost completely set: 9 teams are virtual locks and six more are playing for the last three spots.

With about 99% certainty Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana will make the Playoff. SMU or Clemson, Boise State or UNLV, and Arizona State or Iowa State will join.

For those last six contenders, it's pretty much win or remain out. Boise State, UNLV, Arizona State, Iowa State, and Clemson have to win. The only slight exception seems to be SMU, who could possibly lose a close game to Clemson and remain in. For that to happen, they'd have to stay ahead of either Indiana or Alabama, or hope for a blowout loss by Georgia or Penn State.

Projected Final Committee Rankings (11/30 pre-Committee meeting)

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon                 *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.6   +1.3
  3   2. Texas                  *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.7   +5.1
  5   3. Notre Dame              Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   24.1   +7.4
  6   4. Penn State              B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.8    3.1   +1.1
  4   5. Georgia                 SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.7    6.1   -2.7
  1   6. Ohio State              B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   14.0  -11.1
  8   7. Tennessee               SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    6.7   +2.0
  9   8. SMU                    *ACC    11-1     59.6   -4.7    2.3   +1.0
 10   9. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     99.9  +14.6    7.7   -1.1
 11  10. Indiana                 B10    11-1    >99.9  +23.0    5.1   +2.5

Alabama ranks 9th in our simulation but has the "lowest" Playoff odds of 99.9%, while Indiana shows >99.9%. Last week Alabama's odds were 85.3%, which seemed high to some but the Tide had many paths to the Playoff, namely a loss by Tennessee at Vanderbilt (didn't happen), Georgia losing to Georgia Tech (damn near happened), or a loss by SMU (nope) or Miami (ding ding ding!). If SMU does lose, they could remain in if Penn State or Georgia gets blown out. In that case, a 2-loss Penn State might fall below Indiana, and/or a 3-loss Georgia could fall below Alabama (whom they lost to earlier in the year). It takes a lot, and SMU's odds of staying in with a loss track to about 0.1% so it's highly unlikely. For reference here, ESPN's FPI has Alabama at just 30.1% odds (!) and SMU at 69.2%, with opponent Clemson at 41.7%, which implies more than 10% leeway for SMU if they lose.

Boise State and Iowa State are favored in their conference title games, with the Big 12 race almost a coin flip. UNLV's playoff odds took a big jump (+30.3%), but why? Weren't they heavily favored to beat Nevada and make the Mountain West title game? They were, but Tulane was in their way last week—even with a MWC title they didn't pass an 11-2 Tulane most of the time. Tulane's loss cleared UNLV's path to the Playoff if the Rebels beat Boise State.

Miami is the big loser this week, obviously; the Canes went from 92.2% to 0.0%. Without a signature win, it will be easy for the Committee to drop them out of range, but remember that the Committee has consistently ranked them higher than the AP, not that it will probably matter. Mississippi's odds on the other hand went to 0.0 as they needed even more chaos to make the field, and it appears South Carolina will pass them them despite Ole Miss's 27-3 regular season win over the Gamecocks. For the last six weeks we've been projecting a top 25 South Carolina finish without a Playoff spot, and it looks like they might be the "first team out", with no path to get in—unless, I suppose, the Committee throws us a surprise on Tuesday and has the Gamecocks ranked ahead of the Tide (they lost to Alabama 27-25 in Tuscaloosa). 

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 15  11. South Carolina          SEC     9-3      0.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0
 13  12. Boise St               *MWC    11-1     63.2   -1.0    0.2   -0.1
 12  13. Mississippi             SEC     9-3      0.0  -14.3    0.0   -1.5
 16  14. Arizona St              B12    10-2     48.3  +14.0    0.5   +0.3
  7  15. Miami FL                ACC    10-2      0.0  -92.2    0.0   -3.8
 19  16. Iowa St                *B12    10-2     51.7  +37.0    0.6   +0.4
 14  17. Brigham Young           B12    10-2      0.0  -45.0    0.0   -0.6
 22  18. Colorado                B12     9-3      0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 18  19. Clemson                 ACC     9-3     40.5  +38.9    0.4   +0.4
 24  20. Missouri                SEC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 25  21. Illinois                B10     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 21  22. UNLV                    MWC    10-2     36.8  +30.3   <0.1    0.0
 40  23. Syracuse                ACC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 17  24. Tulane                 *AAc     9-3      0.0  -32.9    0.0   -0.5
 23  25. Army                    AAc    10-1      0.0   -0.2    0.0    0.0

Army has the home field edge against Tulane in the American title game but we favor the Green Wave over the Black Knights. If they'd beaten Memphis there would be some interesting intrigue as to whether the Big 12 would get a team in the Playoff at all, but that matter is closed now.

Let's look again at the top of the list again for Championship odds.

Notre Dame is #1 at 24.1%. The Irish were largely written off early in the season after losing to Northern Illinois, with many saying that was the end of their Playoff hopes! But now they're playing like the best team in the nation and are a Playoff lock. They are a slight favorite over #2 Texas, but that's with Texas' game against Georgia pending. If the Longhorns win that, their Championship odds will rocket as they'll have a first-round bye, which Notre Dame can't get. Every team here that can get a bye—Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, and SMU—could see their Championship odds nearly double with a conference title (they won't quite double since partial odds of having a bye are already figured into the championship odds).

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon                 *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.6   +1.3
  3   2. Texas                  *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.7   +5.1
  5   3. Notre Dame              Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   24.1   +7.4
  6   4. Penn State              B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.8    3.1   +1.1
  4   5. Georgia                 SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.7    6.1   -2.7
  1   6. Ohio State              B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   14.0  -11.1
  8   7. Tennessee               SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    6.7   +2.0
  9   8. SMU                    *ACC    11-1     59.6   -4.7    2.3   +1.0
 10   9. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     99.9  +14.6    7.7   -1.1
 11  10. Indiana                 B10    11-1    >99.9  +23.0    5.1   +2.5

Teams here that can't get a bye—Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana—will show roughly the same odds next week. Ohio State went from a >50% chance of a bye to a 0% chance and their odds fell accordingly, from first place at 25.1% to third place at 14.0%. Georgia's odds fell from 8.8% to 6.1% due to their lackluster performance against Georgia Tech, and Alabama's mild win over Auburn didn't go them any favors either. 

Though SMU's Playoff odds fell—due to low odds of staying in the field with a title game loss—their Championship odds almost doubled with the solid chance of getting a Playoff bye. And Penn State, who didn't look like they'd be in the Big Ten title game, added over 1.0% to their Champ odds due to making it there. The jump for Texas and Notre Dame mostly came from Ohio State's drop from the first-round-bye perch. Oregon, meanwhile, continues to fare relatively poorly in the Strength power rating and very often faces Georgia in their first game—or Ohio State, as they would be the current 8 and 9 seeds!

Committee update elevates Miami, hurting Indiana (?)

Weird, sometimes simulation results are weird and unexpected. Indiana looked like a lock before the Committee results when the AP placed them at #10. Then the Committee put them at....#10 and they slipped out of the "top 12" !

The Hoosiers still show a solid 77% chance of making the Playoff, but that's down from an interim 99% following Saturday's games. If their Committee ranking matched the AP's, what changed?

Looks like it was the Committee putting Miami at #6 instead of #8. In both scenarios, about half the time only one of Miami and SMU makes the Playoff. But when Miami is at #8 and SMU at #9, Indiana pretty much always finishes ahead of one of the two. Not so when Miami starts at #6. That one spot is enough to push Indiana down, but that doesn't explain why Alabama and Tennessee are both ahead of them now. Butterfly effect? 

In any case, here are the updated odds. Indiana could be in the "blue" section if you go by Playoff%, as they're still in better shape that both Tennessee (74.5%) and SMU (64.3%), so clearly these teams were very close in average position. Alabama's odds jumped by 20%, so they were the main beneficiary of Indiana's unexplained fall. In the end it makes a bit more sense: Indiana lost 38-15 and lost about 7.7% from last week's 84.6%. Maybe it's the 99% figure that should be examined. Alabama ends up losing only 12.8% from last week's value, and Ole Miss (up a spot in the Committee relative to the AP) drops from 65% to 14.3% instead of 5.0%.

                          Rank                   Playoff Odds   AP/CFPC          LW
 LW  Rnk Team           AP CFPC  Conf   Rec     w/AP    w/CFPC   %chg   Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State      2   2   B10    10-1    >99.9    >99.9    0.0    24.5   12.4
  1   2. Oregon          1   1   B10    11-0    >99.9    >99.9    0.0     4.2    1.7
  4   3. Texas           3   3   SEC    10-1     99.5     99.0   -0.5    19.6    3.1
  6   4. Georgia         6   7   SEC     9-2     96.8     97.2   +0.4     8.8    0.4
  5   5. Notre Dame      5   5   Ind    10-1     99.7     97.2   -2.5    17.9    6.5
 10   6. Penn State      4   4   B10    10-1     98.1     97.1   -1.0     2.3    0.5
  7   7. Miami FL        8   6   ACC    10-1     84.8     92.2   +7.4     3.4    0.4
 11   8. Tennessee       7   8   SEC     9-2     73.6     74.5   +0.9     5.0    1.9
 13   9. SMU             9   9   ACC    10-1     73.2     64.3   -8.9     1.7    0.9
  3  10. Alabama        13  13   SEC     8-3     65.1     85.3  +20.2     6.6  -14.4
  8  11. Indiana        10  10   B10    10-1     99.0     76.9  -22.1     3.7   -1.7
  9  12. Mississippi    15  14   SEC     8-3      5.0     14.3   +9.3     0.6  -11.8
 12  13. Boise St       11  11   MWC    10-1     65.1     64.2   -0.9     0.3    0.0
 14  14. Brigham Young  19  19   B12     9-2     41.2     45.0   +3.8     0.4    0.2
 15  15. South Carolina 16  15   SEC     8-3      0.3      0.3    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 22  16. Arizona St     14  16   B12     9-2     35.2     34.3   -0.9     0.2    0.1
 18  17. Tulane         18  17   AAc     9-2     31.7     32.9   +1.2     0.4    0.2
 17  18. Clemson        12  12   ACC     9-2      5.0      1.6   -3.4     0.1   -0.2
 21  19. Iowa St        17  18   B12     9-2     20.1     14.7   -5.4     0.3    0.0
 19  20. Texas A&M      20  20   SEC     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 23  21. UNLV           21  22   MWC     9-2      6.4      6.5   +0.1     0.0    0.0
 16  22. Colorado       23  25   B12     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0    <0.1   -0.3
 20  23. Army           25  --   AAc     9-1      0.3      0.2   -0.1     0.0    0.0
 29  24. Missouri       24  21   SEC     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0
 34  25. Illinois       22  23   B10     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0

Other than Miami, only a handful of teams are ranked more than 1 spot away from the AP poll. Arizona State is two spots lower, as is Colorado. Missouri is three spots higher and Army fell out. K-State comes in at #24 on the Committee (unranked in AP).

So once again, we basically have a cut and paste job from the Committee. Sigh.

Will Kansas make it to a bowl game after all? What about Louisiana-Monroe?

This is a tale of two teams, one (Kansas) whose bowl situation looked hopeless and another (ULM) who seemed to have a bowl in the bank. Their fortunes have completely reversed since mid-season of 2024.

Kansas Jayhawks bowl odds

 

Kansas hit rock bottom at 2-6 after losing a close one at K-State. They needed to win 4 straight against a very tough slate of opponents: Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, and Baylor.

The Jayhawks' bowl qualification odds were just 1.8%.

Rank Team   Weekend result            Rec   Chalk   Average  Playoff%  chg%  Bowl%   Chg%
# 33 Kansas      Pre-season           0-0    8-4    7.5- 4.5   11.9    0.0   76.0   +0.0
# 28 Kansas Beat Lindenwood 48-3      1-0   10-2    7.6- 4.4   14.1   +2.2   77.4   +1.4
# 46 Kansas Lost at Illinois 23-17    1-1    9-3    6.7- 5.3    6.0   -8.1   68.5   -8.9
# 68 Kansas Lost to UNLV 23-20        1-2    8-4    5.5- 6.5    1.3   -4.7   49.4  -19.1
# 87 Kansas Lost at W Virginia 32-28  1-3    4-8    4.7- 7.3    0.2   -1.1   33.4  -16.0
# 94 Kansas Lost to TCU 38-27         1-4    3-9    3.7- 8.3   <0.1   -0.1   13.8  -19.6
#102 Kansas Lost at Arizona St 35-31  1-5    3-9    3.2- 8.8    0.0   -0.1    4.5   -9.3
#107 Kansas      Did not play         1-5    2-10   2.9- 9.1    0.0    0.0    2.4   -2.1
#100 Kansas Beat Houston 42-14        2-5    2-10   3.3- 8.7    0.0    0.0    3.5   +1.1
# 93 Kansas Lost to Kansas St 29-27   2-6    2-10   3.3- 8.7    0.0    0.0    1.8   -1.7
# 89 Kansas      Did not play         2-6    2-10   3.4- 8.6    0.0    0.0    1.9   +0.1 
# 79 Kansas Beat Iowa State 45-36     3-6    3-9    4.2- 7.8    0.0    0.0    6.3   +4.4
# 59 Kansas Beat BYU 17-13 (road)     4-6    4-8    4.8- 7.2    0.0    0.0   17.4  +11.1
# 60 Kansas Beat Colorado 37-21       5-6    5-7    5.4- 6.6    0.0    0.0   42.8  +25.4

Pre-season, the Jayhawks were expected to have a solid year and probably get to a bowl game even in the very-parity (paritied?) Big Twelve. After beating Lindenwood (who?) they were just over 75% odds and even had a 14% chance to make the Playoff, but close losses to Illinois and UNLV knocked them just below 50% at 1-3. 

Another loss to West Virginia put them at 1 in 3 odds, and the TCU loss put them at 1-4 and 13.8%, about what their Playoff Odds were at the beginning of the season. It was looked bleak. Kansas very nearly upset Arizona State but fell 35-31, their 4th loss within 6 points and they were down to 4.5%.

They even fell during the off week as reality set in, down to 2.4%. Their first D-I win was a blowout victory over Houston, and their odds ticked up to 3.5%. They almost upset Kansas State—their 5th "almost"—but at 2-6 their bowl odds were 1.8%. But they were unquestionably playing good football now.

And so the turnaround started.

Facing 7-1 Iowa State the Jayhawks got their first big win. At 3-6 it didn't mean much: they gained just 4.4%, up to 6.3%. Odds were still stacked against them big-time.

Next up: BYU. The Cougars were undefeated (9-0) and playing at home. Yet the Jayhawks prevailed, 17-13, stopping the Cougars short at the end. That was worth another 11.1% to 17.4%.

They needed to beat a hot Colorado team next, and they did quite easily, 37-21. That more than doubled their bowl odds to 42.8%, a figure that doesn't really reflect how well Kansas is playing right now.

Only Baylor is left, a road game. Can the Jayhawks do it? Go from 2-6 to 6-6 for a bowl game? We'll find out this weekend.

Louisiana-Monroe bowl odds

If there's a team that is the anti-Kansas this year it's Louisiana-Monroe (ULM). The Warhawks started strong and were 5-1 with a 95.8% chance to make a bowl game when it started to go South.

Rank Team   Weekend result            Rec   Chalk   Average  Playoff%  chg%  Bowl%   Chg%
#132 ULM         Pre-season           0-0    1-11   2.8- 9.2    0.0   -0.1   13.6   -0.0
#131 ULM  Beat Jackson State 30-14    1-0    1-11   3.2- 8.8    0.0    0.0   13.3   -0.3
#122 ULM  Beat UAB 32-6               2-0    3-9    4.4- 7.6   <0.1   +0.1   26.8  +13.5
#113 ULM         Did not play         2-0    3-9    4.6- 7.4   <0.1    0.0   30.1   +3.3
#103 ULM  Lost at Texas 51-3          2-1    3-9    5.0- 7.0   <0.1    0.0   37.3   +7.2
# 88 ULM  Beat Troy 13-9              3-1    4-8    6.0- 6.0   <0.1    0.0   57.7  +20.4
# 69 ULM  Beat James Madison 21-19    4-1    5-7    7.2- 4.8    0.2   +0.1   87.0  +29.3
# 56 ULM  Beat Southern Miss 38-21    5-1    7-5    7.8- 4.2    0.2    0.0   95.8   +8.8
# 72 ULM         Did not play         5-1    7-5    7.5- 4.5   <0.1   -0.1   93.6   -2.2
# 86 ULM  Lost at S. Alabama 46-17    5-2    6-6    6.5- 5.5    0.0   -0.1   82.6  -11.0
# 83 ULM  Lost at Marshall 28-23      5-3    6-6    6.5- 5.5    0.0    0.0   85.6   +3.0
# 90 ULM  Lost to Texas St. 38-17     5-4    6-6    6.0- 6.0    0.0    0.0   76.7   -8.9
# 86 ULM  Lost at Auburn 48-14        5-5    6-6    5.9- 6.1    0.0    0.0   68.2   -8.5
# 96 ULM  Lost at Arkansas St 28-21   5-6    5-7    5.3- 6.7    0.0    0.0   25.1  -43.1

ULM started the year with just about the lowest expectations possible: #132 out of 134 teams and just a 13.6% chance to make a bowl game even with a very week schedule. Beating FCS Jackson State didn't improve their lot, but beating UAB did and after their bye week they were above 30% bowl odds.

Losing to Texas by 48 only improved those odds; as the #113 team, staying within 7 touchdowns on the road was a boon. The Troy win was what boosted the Warhawks above 50% for the first time; at 3-1 they only had to go 3-5 to make a bowl game and their cumulative projection was 6.0-6.0. Still, they were only favored in one game going forward so they'd need some upsets.

They got 2 upsets over their next two games, beating James Madison—a major upset—and Southern Miss (minor). That put them at 5-1, with a 95.8% bowl chance and even a 0.2% shot at the Playoff!

ULM only had to win 1 of their next 6, and they were favored to win 2 of those, and projected to win 2 or 3. But South Alabama rained on their parade, beating them 46-17, knocking their odds to 82.6%. They were not expected to beat Marshall, and keeping it within 5 points on the road was a plus that put them back up a bit at 85.6%.

The Texas State loss put them at 5-4, still at 76.7%. Auburn beat them 48-14 but they were still at 68.2% because they definitely weren't supposed to win that one.

But the Arkansas State loss had a big effect, plunging the Warhawks from 68.2% to 25.1%. That was the one they were supposed to win, and they didn't. 

They've gone from 95.8% to 25.1% with one game left: rival Louisiana-Lafayette. They have home field advantage but do they have the motivation after the slide? Louisiana-Lafayette needs a win to seal their Sun Belt title game appearance; ULM needs a win for a bowl game.

Who will get the job done? Kansas? ULM? Both?

Trends favor Kansas and not ULM, and the oddsmakers agree: Kansas is favored by a point while ULM is almost a 10 point underdog.

Week 13 Post-mortem: Finally some chaos! Bama, Ole Miss tumble

Ohio State vs. Indiana was the marquee game but that result was overshadowed by upset losses by Alabama and Mississippi. Who benefitted most from their fall?

First we should answer, who got hurt most and in that case, it's clearly Mississippi. The Rebels, who lost at Florida 24-17, fell in our projection from 9th to 13th but more importantly, their odds of making the Playoff fell from 85% to just 5%. Basically, that 85% was the odds they could win out against the Gators and Mississippi State (a virtual lock game) and finish 10-2. But that third loss kills them. Alabama had a worse loss—24-3 at 5-6 Oklahoma—and fell a lot farther, from #3 to #11, but their odds remained at 65.1%, equal to Boise State's chances. Alabama's résumé is just better, with wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. If a current 3-loss team makes it, it will be Alabama. But who will open up a slot for them? Tennessee , who gained 16% to re-enter the Projected Playoff, might lose at Vanderbilt, but they beat Alabama and might stay above them. A better path is if the ACC is a 1-bid league. Miami is the favorite there but SMU is a solid #2 having moved up to #10 with a 41.5% gain, making the Mustangs the biggest beneficiary of the SEC teams' collapse. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State          *B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0   >99.9   +1.1   24.5  +11.8
  1   2. Oregon               B10   11-0  12-0  11.9- 0.1   >99.9    0.0    4.2   +1.6
  4   3. Texas                SEC   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    99.5   +1.1   19.6   +4.1
  5   4. Notre Dame           Ind   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    99.7  +16.3   17.9   +7.7
  6   5. Georgia             *SEC    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    96.8   -0.3    8.8   +0.4
 10   6. Penn State           B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    98.1  +19.2    2.3   +0.8
  7   7. Miami FL            *ACC   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    84.8   +8.5    3.4    0.0
  8   8. Indiana              B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    99.0  +14.4    3.7   -0.6
 11   9. Tennessee            SEC    9-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    73.6  +15.8    5.0   +2.2
 13  10. SMU                  ACC   10-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    73.2  +41.5    1.7   +1.3
  3  11. Alabama              SEC    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1    65.1  -33.0    6.6  -16.6
 12  12. Boise St            *MWC   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    65.1   -3.4    0.3    0.0
  9  13. Mississippi          SEC    8-3   9-3   9.0- 3.0     5.0  -79.9    0.6  -12.7

Another team that benefitted? Indiana. Despite losing big at Ohio State, 38-15, the Hoosiers jumped to near-lock status at 99%. With just a home game vs. Purdue to go, they should finish 11-1 and that's good enough now that two 2-loss SEC teams got cleared away. Without those losses they would be much closer to the 75%-ish level of Miami and SMU. Penn State also cleared a hurdle at Minnesota (by 1 point) and travels to Maryland; unless the struggling Terps make that a trap game by declaring it "their bowl game" the Lions will be 11-1 and easily in the Playoff.

Notre Dame pretty much punched their ticket too by clobbering previously undefeated Army. Isn't it time the Irish, who were forgotten after the Northern Illinois loss, be declared a solid National title possibility? We show them third-most-likely to win it all. 2nd-most-likely is Texas, who can reach the SEC final by beating Texas A&M, but will have to play Georgia in Atlanta. Surprisingly the Bulldogs are the only team in the top ten to shed Playoff Odds, probably because they struggled a bit with UMass which puts the Georgia Tech game into slightly more doubt. The only way Georgia can miss the Playoff is by going 9-4. At the top of the chart is Ohio State, favored in the rematch with #2 Oregon, and both are Playoff locks though maybe if they both lose next week (to Michigan and USC) then the Big Ten title game loser has a tiny risk.

The SEC wasn't the only conference to collapse due to upsets: the Big Twelve has big trouble last weekend with the top two contenders being upset. BYU fell for the 2nd straight week, this time to Arizona State (28-23), who jumped from #22 to #15, right behind the Cougars who remained at #14. ASU added 24.5% but BYU only dropped 0.3%, and that's because main competitor Colorado lost to giant-killer Kansas, 37-21. The Buffs shed 31.5% and most of that went to Arizona State but BYU was helped, too, offsetting their own misfortune. Iowa State got a bump, too, and with four teams with 2 losses and EIGHT teams mathematically in the running for the title game, but BYU vs. ASU is the most likely scenario and BYU would be slightly favored on a neutral field. And there's a very slight chance the Big Twelve doesn't get one of the auto-bids, thanks to the Mountain West and American Athletic.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 14  14. Brigham Young       *B12    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    41.2   -0.3    0.4    0.0
 22  15. Arizona St           B12    9-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    35.2  +24.5    0.2   +0.1
 18  16. Tulane              *AAc    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    31.7   +5.7    0.4   +0.1
 17  17. Clemson              ACC    9-2   9-3   9.5- 2.5     5.0   -1.6    0.1   -0.1
 15  18. South Carolina       SEC    8-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.3   -0.4    0.0   -0.1
 21  19. Iowa St              B12    9-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4    20.1   +7.1    0.3   +0.1
 19  20. Texas A&M            SEC    8-3   8-4   8.2- 3.8    <0.1   -1.9    0.0   -0.1
 16  21. Colorado             B12    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1    <0.1  -31.5   <0.1   -0.2
 23  22. UNLV                 MWC    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1     6.4   +2.1    0.0    0.0
 20  23. Army                 AAc    9-1  10-1   9.9- 1.1     0.3   -3.8    0.0    0.0
 29  24. Missouri             SEC    8-3   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 34  25. Illinois             B10    8-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Boise State is in pole position for the 4th or 5th auto-bid, with the Big Twelve currently taking the 5th non-bye slot. But when all is said and done the Big Twelve champ probably finishes ahead of Boise State; the many possibilities are holding the top teams back. But Tulane is shockingly close to the top Big Twelve teams and if they win out and the Big Twelve has another carnage week, we might see them shut out! UNLV still has a reasonable chance to make the Playoff with a MWC title game win, but they still need to get there first. Army's odd went from a low 4.1% to a microscopic 0.3%; their path? Beat Tulane in the AAC title game and hope for losses across the board in the Big 12 and for longshot Colorado State to win the Mountain West.

Texas A&M's odds above are clearly low since they can make the SEC title game with an upset of Texas and get in the Playoff by beating Georgia. My system doesn't try to figure out the tiebreakers for the conference title games so that possibility isn't viable, hence the <0.1% odds. In any case, their loss to Auburn made that their only path. Missouri re-enters the top 25 but they have no chance, nor does Illinois who enters our projection for the first time this season. #17 Clemson and #18 South Carolina actually play this weekend, a game that could kill Clemson's slim chance but won't help South Carolina's even slimmer hopes.

Outside the top 25 there are no teams that have any realistic chance, maybe Kansas State can leverage their slim chance at the Big Twelve title game to their favor if they beat Iowa State. I'll wait to see what happens in the Big Twelve instead of worrying about the tiebreaker. Projected Sun Belt winner Louisiana doesn't have a realistic shot any more; James Madison sort of did but they lost again and they can't win the conference. Ohio and Jacksonville State are favored to win the MAC and CUSA but that doesn't have Playoff ramifications. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 28  26. Kansas St            B12    8-3   8-4   8.4- 3.6    <0.1   -0.6  100.0    0.0
 30  27. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   9-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3     0.0   -0.1  100.0    0.0
 25  29. Washington St        P12    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 24  30. LSU                  SEC    7-4   8-4   7.6- 4.4     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 50  32. Ohio U.             *MAC    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 26  37. James Madison        SUNe   8-3   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.0   -0.2  100.0    0.0
 66  42. Oklahoma             SEC    6-5   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0  100.0  +58.3
 62  53. Boston College       ACC    6-5   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0  100.0  +23.1
 65  54. Jacksonville St     *CUSA   8-3   8-4   8.4- 3.6     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 71  57. West Virginia        B12    6-5   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0  100.0  +36.0

Oklahoma's shocking win over Alabama punched their bowl game ticket; beforehand they were at just 42% odds of beating either Alabama or LSU. Speaking of LSU, the Tigers and Washington State, long-term occupants of our Projected Final Top 25, both lost and fell out. Boston College and West Virginia both got their 6th wins with a game to spare.

Who is causing all this carnage in the Big Twelve anyway? Well Kansas is a big culprit. The Jayhawks were once at 1.8% bowl game odds and after three upset wins they're at 43%. Given how they're playing they will probably be favored to win at Baylor (let me check: yes, Kansas by 1 point). Every other team below that gained bowl odds did so by reaching the 6-win mark: USC, Nebraska, Michigan, and Calfornia are all 6-5 now.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 59  60. Kansas               B12    5-6   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   42.8  +25.4
 48  63. Southern Cal         B10    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +20.5
 52  65. Cincinnati           B12    5-6   6-6   5.6- 6.4     0.0    0.0   55.8  -18.8
 72  69. Nebraska             B10    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +42.2
 69  71. Michigan             B10    6-5   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0  100.0  +23.7
 75  76. UCLA                 B10    4-7   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0    0.0  -23.0
 58  77. Central Florida      B12    4-7   5-7   4.7- 7.3     0.0    0.0    0.0  -45.7
 61  78. Wisconsin            B10    5-6   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   48.9  -30.1
 74  81. California           ACC    6-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +10.3
 79  82. North Texas          AAc    5-6   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   75.4  -16.0

UCLA and UCF lost all their bowl odds with their 7th losses. But Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and North Texas have one more shot. We favor the Bearcats at home against TCU but the oddsmakers don't; Wisconsin is in about a 50/50 game hosting Minnesota (oddsmakers have the Badgers by 2); and North Texas should beat Temple despite playing on the road.

Below, most teams lost bowl odds, including Old Dominion and Northwestern who are out of luck now. Everyone else has hope: Western Michigan faces Eastern Michigan, so one if them is guaranteed a bowl bid. As you can see by the bowl odds, the Broncos are favored 68.9% to 31.1% to win the game. Virginia is given a puncher's chance to win at Virginia Tech; Coastal Carolina was in good shape last week but lost to Georgia Southern, now they have to win at Georgia State; and ULM lost their 5th straight and now must beat rival ULL (Lousiana-Lafayette) to get a sixth win. ULM is the anti-Kansas, their bowl odds were sky-high several weeks ago.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 78  85. Old Dominion         SUNe   4-7   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0    0.0  -47.3
108  86. Appalachian St       SUNe   5-5   5-6   5.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0   22.5  +18.9
 85  88. Western Michigan     MAC    5-6   6-6   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   68.9  -14.6
 82  89. Virginia             ACC    5-6   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   13.9  -20.0
 84  91. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   5-6   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   44.2  -32.8
 97  92. Fresno St            MWC    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +30.0
 98  95. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    6-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +17.6
 86  96. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   5-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   25.1  -43.1
 94 103. Eastern Michigan     MAC    5-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   31.1  -43.2
 95 104. Northwestern         B10    4-7   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0    0.0  -10.2

Fresno State and UTSA bucked the trend by getting their 6th wins, but the odds were well in their favor before last weekend anyway. Appalachian State also improved their lot by upsetting James Madison 34-20. The Mountaineers were down to just 3.6% odds, needing two wins on their 11-game schedule, and it comes down to the Georgia Southern game where we give them a 22.5% shot. Oddsmakers have them just a 2 1/2 point road underdog though.