I predicted chaos on week 6 and I got it—just not the games I looked for. And neither Alabama nor Tennessee were critically wounded either for their losses. Let's take a look.
Alabama fell to Vanderbilt, a result I didn't even thing about but should have since it was a classic letdown game. The Tide fall from their top spot to #4, and it's clear they were too close to the sun at 93.3%(!) Playoff Odds last week; that's now 75.8%, still pretty lofty. Tennessee was hurt almost as much for losing to Arkansas but they're still #6. Idle Georgia dropped 2 spots but added 1% to their odds, while Ole Miss gained over 20% after crushing South Carolina, and the downgrade of the Tide and the Vols didn't hurt either as it makes a Rebel conference championship more likely. Texas was idle and moved up to #2 and is in the driver's seat as the only undefeated SEC team.
Ohio State took over at #1 after beating Iowa 35-7. The Big Ten still has FOUR undefeated teams but only three Playoff teams as Penn State's tepid 27-11 win over UCLA caused them to slip out of the Playoff while 6-0 Indiana moved into the last spot. The Hoosiers are for real, will it last? Their win at Northwestern (41-24) wasn't their best performance but their power ratings are great. Oregon had their last warmup before hosting Ohio State next week; that one is the Big Ten's equivalent of Georgia-Alabama this year.
Projected Record Odds 10/07/2024 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 2 1. Ohio State *B10 5-0 12-0 11.0- 1.0 91.6 +8.3 >99.9 0.0 4 2. Texas *SEC 5-0 12-0 10.8- 1.2 88.4 +5.7 >99.9 0.0 6 3. Miami FL *ACC 6-0 12-0 11.1- 0.9 77.8 +11.2 100.0 +0.1 1 4. Alabama SEC 4-1 10-2 9.7- 2.3 75.8 -17.5 >99.9 0.0 5 5. Oregon B10 5-0 11-1 10.3- 1.7 71.4 -2.5 >99.9 0.0 3 6. Tennessee SEC 4-1 10-2 9.8- 2.2 68.8 -14.1 >99.9 0.0 9 7. Iowa St *B12 5-0 12-0 10.3- 1.7 61.6 +12.3 99.9 +0.7 11 8. Mississippi SEC 5-1 11-1 9.7- 2.3 60.7 +20.7 >99.9 +0.6 7 9. Georgia SEC 4-1 9-3 9.1- 2.9 56.2 +1.0 99.9 0.0 8 10. Notre Dame Ind 4-1 11-1 9.7- 2.3 57.9 +2.0 99.8 -0.1 14 11. Indiana B10 6-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 50.2 +17.4 100.0 +0.1 13 12. Brigham Young B12 5-0 11-1 10.1- 1.9 49.3 +12.1 99.9 +0.3 10 13. Penn State B10 5-0 10-2 9.5- 2.5 44.1 +0.2 99.9 +0.5
Iowa State beat Baylor 43-21 and gained another 12% toward their Playoff tuition. They're over 60% now and the clear Big Twelve favorite here, though BYU was up a similar amount this week despite being idle. The Cougars have a great résumé, maybe the best in the country with wins over K-State and SMU.
Miami was almost part of this weekend's chaos but they overcame a 25 point deficit to beat Cal; the Hurricanes are looking like a team of destiny this year, one of those teams that lucks their way to a national title. The Canes are up 11.2% and are bowl eligible at 6-0, will their miracle run continue? We'll have to wait another week as they are idle this weekend. Notre Dame was idle last week but remains in the top ten.
Boise State should have gained more than 1.1% in Playoff Odds this week, doesn't it seem? Especially in a week where their toughest Mountain West foe (UNLV) lost to Syracuse and another rival for the 5th auto-bid (James Madison) was upset. But though both teams shed double-digits in Playoff Odds they each slipped only 3 spots. There just aren't that many candidates for the 5th spot. 2-loss Tulane even jumped back into consideration, beating UAB 71-20.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 12 14. Boise St *MWC 4-1 10-2 10.0- 2.0 46.6 +1.1 >99.9 0.0 15 15. Kansas St B12 4-1 10-2 8.9- 3.1 31.8 +0.4 98.3 -0.2 18 16. Clemson ACC 4-1 11-1 9.0- 3.0 27.5 +2.2 99.3 +0.8 29 17. Texas A&M SEC 5-1 9-3 8.8- 3.2 21.4 +15.7 >99.9 +3.5 20 18. Washington St P12 4-1 11-1 9.9- 2.1 12.9 +2.2 >99.9 +0.1 16 19. UNLV MWC 4-1 11-1 9.9- 2.1 27.7 -10.5 99.9 0.0 24 20. Tulane *AAc 4-2 10-2 9.1- 2.9 16.3 +9.6 99.9 +0.8 27 21. SMU ACC 5-1 11-1 9.3- 2.7 15.7 +8.2 99.6 +5.1 19 22. James Madison *SUNe 4-1 11-1 9.9- 2.1 13.2 -11.0 >99.9 0.0 32 23. Texas Tech B12 5-1 10-2 8.6- 3.4 9.1 +2.4 98.6 +8.3 26 24. LSU SEC 4-1 8-4 7.5- 4.5 13.7 +2.8 88.4 -1.1 17 25. Southern Cal B10 3-2 9-3 7.5- 4.5 9.9 -23.9 88.3 -6.1
Four new teams joined the projected Final Committee Top 25, with Texas A&M back in the mix after crushing Missouri 41-10. LSU snuck back in, making it 7 SEC teams in the top 25. SMU beat Louisville and took over as the #3 ACC contender (#2 is Clemson, who has been steadily moving up since their opening loss to Georgia). And Texas Tech beat Arizona to become a contender in the Big Twelve, though Kansas State is much closer to the top two than the Red Raiders. Note that Tech's only loss is to Washington State, still hanging around after their loss to Boise, hoping to slip in the top twelve somehow. Meanwhile USC took a dive with their 2nd loss, shedding around 24% and now under 10% Playoff Odds at 3-2.
Oklahoma is just outside the top 25 and a win over Texas this weekend would be just what the doctor ordered for the Sooners. Army and Navy remained on a collision course with big wins (combined 83-14), the only question is whether they will play for the AAC title before their regular season game on December 14th. Four teams dropped out of the Top 25: Louisville (2nd loss, to SMU); Utah (idle; Oklahoma State's loss hurt them); Missouri (lost 41-10, and they were on the decline from their pre-season projection anyway); and Michigan (2nd loss, to Washington, puts last year's national champs at 1.1% Playoff Odds).
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 28 26. Oklahoma SEC 4-1 7-5 7.4- 4.6 9.8 +2.3 91.9 +3.1 39 27. Army AAc 5-0 10-2 9.9- 2.1 7.8 +4.6 >99.9 +1.2 45 29. Navy AAc 5-0 10-2 9.1- 2.9 7.4 +3.8 99.6 +3.1 21 30. Louisville ACC 3-2 8-4 7.2- 4.8 7.6 -12.4 84.4 -7.7 25 32. Utah B12 4-1 9-3 7.6- 4.4 8.7 -6.0 89.6 -2.5 50 33. Virginia Tech ACC 3-3 8-4 7.1- 4.9 2.5 +1.7 86.9 +15.8 22 37. Missouri SEC 4-1 8-4 7.6- 4.4 2.9 -12.0 94.1 -3.3 67 40. Arkansas SEC 4-2 6-6 7.1- 4.9 1.8 +1.3 90.2 +29.4 56 41. Pittsburgh ACC 5-0 8-4 7.9- 4.1 4.5 +2.5 94.4 +12.9 43 42. Sam Houston St *CUSA 5-1 11-1 9.2- 2.8 1.0 -0.6 99.7 +1.9 34 43. Liberty CUSA 4-0 10-1 8.9- 2.1 1.9 -1.9 98.5 -0.5 23 45. Michigan B10 4-2 7-5 6.7- 5.3 1.1 -9.1 82.7 -8.0
We all know what Arkansas did to jump from #67 to #40, up almost 30% in bowl odds: upset Tennessee. But Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh of the ACC had big moves, too. The Hokies beat Stanford 31-7 and the Panthers won at North Carolina 34-24. All three now look like solid bowl teams, whereas last week they were all a lot more marginal. And we have a changing of the guard in the C-USA with 5-1 Sam Houston State looking slightly better than 4-0 Liberty, who hasn't played a strong game yet (the Flames played Tuesday night and needed overtime to edge FAU).
Two more of last week's upset hopefuls appear below. California didn't get the big one but still added to their bowl odds for their strong performance. Vanderbilt did get the big one and may have saved their bowl hopes with it; they're now almost 50/50, needing 3 wins on a tough slate to get it. They just beat Alabama so should that be so hard?
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 47 46. California ACC 3-2 8-4 7.5- 4.5 1.4 -1.3 90.1 +3.5 51 48. Nebraska B10 5-1 7-5 7.3- 4.7 1.0 -0.5 94.5 +11.1 52 49. Toledo *MAC 4-1 9-3 8.6- 3.4 0.6 0.0 97.4 +4.2 68 51. Syracuse ACC 4-1 6-6 7.1- 4.9 1.7 +0.7 82.0 +21.1 58 52. Arizona St B12 4-1 5-7 6.9- 5.1 2.3 -0.5 79.4 +15.3 73 59. Virginia ACC 4-1 5-7 6.5- 5.5 1.2 +0.5 72.4 +19.6 75 62. Washington B10 4-2 5-7 6.0- 6.0 0.3 0.0 62.7 +20.9 95 65. Vanderbilt SEC 3-2 4-8 5.6- 6.4 0.4 +0.4 48.2 +33.1
The other teams above all have solid bowl hopes. Nebraska is almost a lock at 5-1, while fellow Big Ten team Washington was touch-and-go before upsetting Michigan. In the ACC Syracuse's win over UNLV puts them in very good shape and Virginia gains nearly 20% after beating Boston College. Arizona State is 4-1 after topping Kansas. And Toledo is 4-1 and the favorite to win the MAC, which ranks last among the conferences and won't be in the Playoff conversation.
Three Big Twelve teams saw their fortunes take a dive last week. First, Oklahoma State fell from over 75% bowl odds to under 50%—down 34.1%—after their 38-14 loss to West Virginia, who gained almost as much themselves. TCU is underwater at 41.4% after an embarrassing loss at home, 30-19, to 2-4 Houston, while Central Florida is still above 50% after losing at Florida. The Gators kept their bowl hopes (22.7%) alive with the win.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 36 67. Central Florida B12 3-2 6-6 5.8- 6.2 0.6 -6.5 56.5 -21.9 86 68. West Virginia B12 3-2 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.8 +0.6 56.4 +29.8 88 69. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 4-1 5-7 7.2- 4.8 0.2 +0.1 87.0 +29.3 72 73. Georgia Tech ACC 4-2 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.1 -0.2 66.3 +11.5 90 76. Minnesota B10 3-3 4-8 5.5- 6.5 <0.1 0.0 48.7 +21.1 44 79. Oklahoma St B12 3-3 4-8 5.4- 6.6 0.1 -3.1 45.0 -34.1 57 84. TCU B12 3-3 4-8 5.3- 6.7 <0.1 -1.0 41.4 -29.3 97 87. Florida SEC 3-2 4-8 4.6- 7.4 <0.1 0.0 22.7 +10.1
UL-Monroe upset James Madison and that puts the Warhawks in great shape for a bowl game. Georgia Tech is looking pretty good, too, after handing Duke their first loss of the season. Minnesota's upset of USC puts them at around 50/50 for a bowl game, and a very meager <0.1% to make the Playoff at 3 losses.
Most of the teams below were low and fell further, with Jacksonville State one of the exceptions. The Gamecocks beat Kennesaw 63-24 and now look to finish at 6-6. Charlotte is the other team jumping from triple digits ranking to double; they beat East Carolina 55-24, knocking the Pirates down to near 50/50.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 100 88. Jacksonville St CUSA 2-3 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.0 0.0 61.8 +22.3 84 91. South Alabama SUNw 2-4 6-6 5.3- 6.7 0.0 -0.1 44.6 -14.8 80 93. North Carolina St ACC 3-3 4-8 5.0- 7.0 0.0 -0.1 35.1 -21.5 71 95. East Carolina AAc 3-3 6-6 5.7- 6.3 0.0 -0.1 56.0 -27.5 112 97. UNC-Charlotte AAc 3-3 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.0 0.0 36.2 +19.9 85 98. Stanford ACC 2-3 3-9 4.2- 7.8 0.0 -0.1 18.0 -16.9 99 111. Hawai`i MWC 2-3 5-7 4.4- 7.6 0.0 -0.1 6.6 -11.3 114 124. Tulsa AAc 2-4 2-10 3.6- 8.4 0.0 0.0 8.3 -12.5
But the rest of the lower ranks just got worse. South Alabama fell to Arkansas State 18-16 in an upset, enough to endanger their bowl plans. Two ACC teams, NC State and Stanford, suffered losses to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, respectively, and were heavily downgraded as a result. Tulsa had only 20% odds and lost the majority of that by losing to Army by 42. And Hawaii fell to San Diego State, a game they really needed for their bowl hopes. Now 2-3, with wins over two FCS schools, the Warriors need to win 5 of their last 7 to go 7-5 to reach a bowl game. With Washington State, Boise State, and UNLV among them, you can see why their odds are just 6.6%.