SportsRatings: College Football

2022 Penultimate Playoff Forecast: Clemson blew it

Obviously, Ohio State blew it. They were in with a win, and lost. But losing to an 11-0 team isn't "blowing it" the way losing to a 7-4 team by one point is. Clemson could have been in position for a Playoff spot and they blew it.

At 12-1 with a conference championship, Clemson was arguably already even with a 12-1 USC. A loss by USC would mean the Tigers were in if they beat North Carolina. If TCU loses? Tigers would be there, lording their major-conference title over the Horned Frogs. Two chances to get in.

As it is now, Georgia and Michigan are almost certainly in even if they lose their title games. LSU is not going to replace Georgia. And Alabama also lost to LSU so where's the advantage for the Tide? You could argue for Ohio State moving in instead of Georgia, but then you're saying there should be two Big Ten teams and none from the SEC?

Michigan is a near-lock because of Ohio State, too. They will be ahead of the Buckeyes even if they lose to Purdue because they beat Ohio State soundly, and on the road. Again, there pretty much has to be one Big Ten team and it's going to be Michigan.

SportsRatings projected final committee standings: post-week 13 (11/27)

LW  Rnk Team        Rec  Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold)
 1   1. Georgia     12-0 13-0 98.7  +6.0 
 6   2. Michigan    12-0 13-0 95.3 +65.9 
 3   3. TCU         12-0 13-0 71.4  +3.2 
 4   4. USC         11-1 12-1 52.0  +7.1 L@Utah 43-42
 2   5. Ohio State  11-1 11-1 42.4 -47.7 Mich 45-23
 7   6. Alabama     10-2 10-2 16.1  +4.8 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 8   7. Tennessee   10-2 10-2 10.6  +1.9 @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38
 5   8. Clemson     11-2 11-2  7.2 -28.9 @ND 35-14, SCar 31-30
10   9. Penn State  10-2 10-2  3.1  -2.4 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
12  10. Washington  10-2 10-2  1.0  +0.2 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38
13  11. Florida St   9-3  9-3  0.5  -0.2 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
 9  12. LSU          9-3  9-4  0.5  -6.6 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, @TexAM 38-23, =Georgia
17  13. Oregon St    9-3  9-3  0.4  +0.2 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21
11  14. Oregon       9-3  9-3  0.3  -2.1 @Georgia 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt 38-34
15  15. UCLA         9-3  9-3  0.2  -0.3 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45
14  16. Utah         9-3  9-4  0.1  -0.5 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17, =USC
20  17. Tulane      10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31
21  18. Kansas St    9-3  9-4  0.0   0.0 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU
19  19. Notre Dame   8-4  8-4  0.0  -0.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC 38-27
22  20. Texas        8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10
new 21. S. Carolina  8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 Georgia 48-7, @Ark 44-30, Mizz 23-10, @Fla 38-6
new 22. NC State     8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 BC 21-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou 25-10, @Clem 30-20
16  23. UNC          9-3  9-4  0.0  -0.4 @ND 45-32, GTech 21-17, NCst 30-27ot, =Clemson
24  24. UTSA        10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20
25  25. Troy        10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28

Dropped out: #18 Mississippi (8-4), #23 Louisville (7-5)

TCU has to beat Kansas State to be a lock for the Playoff, but at 12-1 they have a decent argument. Better than Ohio State? Maybe not, but if USC loses, too, then they're up against Alabama and Tennessee, and who has Alabama beaten anyway? Tennessee beat...Alabama. Ok.

USC is really the team that absolutely needs a win because the Committee would move Ohio State into that fourth spot very quickly. And they've got no gimme at all vs. Utah. This time the game is on a neutral field and USC is a very slight favorite. If the Trojans win they would be a lock in a perfect world: Power Five conference champ with their only loss (by one point) avenged at the end of the season? Like I said, should be a lock at that point but the Committee seems to hate USC for not having a good defense. But how is Ohio State any better there after the Michigan game? Both teams have an 11-point win over Notre Dame; Ohio State has a better win (Penn State) but USC beat UCLA and would have the Utah win; and USC's sole loss is so much more forgivable. Add in the conference championship and there should not be a question that USC is in at 12-1. But without it, their odds go to basically zero.

Ohio State must hope for a loss (preferably USC) and hope the Committee isn't stupid and puts a 2-loss SEC team in ahead of them. Alabama's losses were both very tight and on the road, but again, they've beaten no one (Ole Miss is no longer a viable brag). Tennessee has only the Bama win—and a win over LSU—to offset their big loss to South Carolina. I'd put them ahead of Alabama myself, but this projection is based on what the Committee probably will do, and ends up having Alabama in front (mostly because that's where they are in the Committee's rankings).

Below this point the odds are thin. Clemson still maybe has a prayer in an alternate universe, but looks like they'll finish about #8 and there aren't as many circumstances this year that could change in a week as their usually are. Penn State and Washington are 10-2 but don't get the love the SEC 10-2 teams get, so they're not getting in.

538's College Football Predictor still shows pretty lofty odds for 3-loss LSU (24%) and Utah (16%) if they win their conference titles. Which is completely ridiculous. No 3-loss team should have more than 0%, and I say that even as our odds show six 3-loss teams with up to 0.6%. Our system tries to account for Committee randomness by giving almost any ranked team some token chance, so there you go. But really, LSU almost a 1 in 4 chance of making the Playoff at 10-3? No way.

ESPN's projections show LSU and Utah at 4% and 0% if they win out, still too high for LSU's case but at least not crazy. But they also show Ohio State with an 88% of making the Playoff, even after their loss. They show USC at 12.2%, mostly from favoring Utah to win, but they seem to think 11-1 Ohio State is ahead of 12-1 USC in the pecking order. 538 shows a much more reasonable 31% for Ohio State, which goes to 44% if USC loses.

Oh wait, we forgot to mention: on 538, 9-3 Kansas State starts at 19%, which goes up to 46% if they win. There is NO CHANCE that Kansas State makes the Playoff! What is going on at 538, do they really overvalue the Conference title that much? ESPN does the opposite, seeming to think 11-1 Ohio State vastly outranks a 12-1 Power Five champ (USC is at 43% at 12-1).

ESPN vs. 538 if LSU beats Georgia

We're pretty sure LSU loses to Georgia which is why they're so low in our Projected Top 25. But what if they win? ESPN and 538 both have prediction machines and boy, do they compute the reaction of the Committee differently. Here's what happens in ESPN/AllState and 538 if all the higher-rated teams win out but LSU upsets Georgia:

Team         ESPN     538    Average
Georgia       84%     25%     54.5%
Ohio State   >99%    >99%    >99%
Michigan      43%     <1%     22%
TCU           85%    >99%     92%
LSU           41%     86%     63.5%
USC           26%     62%     44%
Alabama        3%      1%      2%
Clemson       19%     26%     22.5%
Tennessee     <1%     <1%     <1%

According to ESPN Georgia is still solidly in, along with either Michigan or LSU. 538 has Georgia out, Michigan completely out, LSU solidly in along with USC. Both have Ohio State and TCU in. This is crazy, and tells us how little we know about the Committee and what it will do in a given scenario.

ESPN's final order in this scenario is: Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Michigan, LSU, USC, Clemson, Alabama.

538's final order is: Ohio State, TCU, LSU, USC, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan

The "composite" order is Ohio State, TCU, LSU, Georgia, USC, Clemson, Michigan, Alabama

So basically only Clemson has no chance if LSU beats Georgia, while USC has a decent chance and the Michigan-Ohio State loser might sneak in.

Week 13 Preview: Down to the nitty-gritty

Here it is, the penultimate week of college football action before the final Playoff standings are determined. Every game counts more now because there's little time to recover from a loss that drops you in the Committee standings, which this year is working more and more like the AP poll: lose and you get moved down, win and you fill in the open spots in front of you. The alleged "evaluation" the Committee supposedly does is limited to griping about USC's defense when they beat a top 25 team, while not worrying about LSU's offense when they beat a team like Arkansas 13-10. But I digress.

Georgia, #1 both in our projection and the Committee's current ranking, had better win out otherwise things get ugly. But for now we're safe as they're playing Georgia Tech, a team that did beat North Carolina last week. The rest of the Playoff-bound teams have it a lot tougher. #2 (2) Ohio State hosts #6 (3) Michigan basically in a playoff for a Playoff spot, loser is (under most circumstances) out of the running, winner goes on to probably rematch Iowa. #3 (4) TCU has a tougher game vs. Iowa State than the line would indicate, but that's always the case for TCU. #4 (6) USC has the toughest of our projected field, hosting a hot Notre Dame team. And #5 (8) Clemson hosts South Carolina, a team that destroyed Tennessee but for which the Tigers will get little credit for beating but tons of grief if they lose.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings w/Committee rank, oddsmakers' line and next opponent:

Rnk Team        Comm Rec  Proj  Line  Opponent
 1. Georgia       1  11-0 13-0 -35.5  Georgia Tech
 2. Ohio State    2  11-0 13-0  -7.5  #6 Michigan
 3. TCU           4  11-0 13-0 -10.0  Iowa State
 4. USC           6  10-1 12-1  -5.5  #19 Notre Dame
 5. Clemson       8  10-1 12-1 -14.5  South Carolina
 6. Michigan      3  11-0 11-1  +7.5  @ #2 Ohio State
 7. Alabama       7   9-2 10-2 -22.0  Auburn
 8. Tennessee    10   9-2 10-2 -14.0  @ Vanderbilt
 9. LSU           5   9-2 10-3 -10.0  @ Texas A&M
10. Penn State   11   9-2 10-2 -19.0  Michigan State
11. Oregon        9   9-2  9-4  -3.0  @ #17 Oregon State
12. Washington   13   9-2  9-3  -2.0  @ Washington State
13. Florida St   16   8-3  9-3  -9.5  Florida
14. Utah         14   8-3  9-3 -29.5  @ Colorado
15. UCLA         18   8-3  9-3 -10.0  @ California
16. UNC          17   9-2 10-3  -6.5  NC State
17. Oregon St    21   8-3  9-3  +3.0  #11 Oregon
18. Mississippi  20   8-3  9-3  -1.5  Miss. State
19. Notre Dame   15   8-3  8-4  +5.5  @USC
20. Tulane       19   9-2 11-2  +1.0  @ (24)Cincinnati
21. Kansas St    12   8-3  9-4 -11.5  Kansas
22. Texas        23   7-4  8-4  -8.5  Baylor
23. Louisville   25   7-4  8-4  +3.0  @ Kentucky
24. UTSA         --   9-2 11-2 -17.0  UTEP
25. Troy         --   9-2 11-2 -14.0  @ Arkansas St
--  UCF          22   8-3  9-4 -19.5  USF
--  Cincinnati   24   9-2  9-3  -1.0  #20 Tulane

It's pretty clear that #7 Alabama has no hope under normal circumstances, but what about #9 (5) LSU? The Committee has fallen in love with this 2-loss team for some reason, maybe to get us used to the idea of 2-loss and 3-loss teams in the Playoff when it expands? Either way, the Tigers are given such ridiculous outsized credit for beating Alabama in overtime and a quickly-self-destructing Mississippi team, while also having a 27-point loss to Tennessee, that they're in position to take a Playoff spot from a Power Five conference champ whose only loss is by 1 point on the road.

ESPN vs. 538 if LSU beats Georgia

We're pretty sure LSU loses to Georgia which is why they're so low. But what if they win? ESPN and 538 both have prediction machines and boy, do they compute the reaction of the Committee differently. Here's what happens in ESPN/AllState and 538 if all the higher-rated teams win out but LSU upsets Georgia:

Team         ESPN     538    Average
Georgia       84%     25%     54.5%
Ohio State   >99%    >99%    >99%
Michigan      43%     <1%     22%
TCU           85%    >99%     92%
LSU           41%     86%     63.5%
USC           26%     62%     44%
Alabama        3%      1%      2%
Clemson       19%     26%     22.5%
Tennessee     <1%     <1%     <1%

According to ESPN Georgia is still solidly in, along with either Michigan or LSU. 538 has Georgia out, Michigan completely out, LSU solidly in along with USC. Both have Ohio State and TCU in. This is crazy, and tells us how little we know about the Committee and what it will do in a given scenario.

ESPN's final order in this scenario is: Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Michigan, LSU, USC, Clemson, Alabama.

538's final order is: Ohio State, TCU, LSU, USC, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan

The "composite" order is Ohio State, TCU, LSU, Georgia, USC, Clemson, Michigan, Alabama

So basically only Clemson has no chance if LSU beats Georgia, while USC has a decent chance and the Michigan-Ohio State loser might sneak in.

American Athletic Still Wide Open

The lower part of the top 25 is meaningless now for the Playoff but will determine a New Year's Six participant once the AAC figures out who their champ is. We have Tulane beating Cincy and winning the rematch with UCF for the title, a scenario that will put them much higher than the #20 we project them at now—especially since they're already #19 in the Committee's top 25.

The Committee still has 8-3 UCF and 9-2 Cincinnati ranked, but if our scenario holds both will have another loss and drop out. We see them eventually getting replaced by 11-2 UTSA and Troy, but that's contingent on both winning their conference title games. The Committee may or may not agree and instead dredge up another couple of 8-4 teams for the final spots.

Speaking of 8-4 teams, a couple of those that we've projected for the Final Top 25 for a few weeks, Texas and Louisville, made their way back in to the Committee's Top 25 last Tuesday. Both have to win to match our 8-4 projection and stay in; Louisville has the tougher task as they are underdogs at Kentucky.

Pac-12 Shakeup Continues

There are no other underdogs on the board but we favor #17 Oregon State over #11 Oregon and Washington State over #12 Washington. Given how the Pac-12 has played out this year it would make sense if this happens, Team A tends to beat Team B who beats Team C who beat Team A in the first place. In the Pac-12 there are much longer chains.

2022 post-Week 12 Playoff Projection: TCU, USC survive close calls, bound for Playoff?

Did any team this week demonstrate that they belong among the Top Four? You would think that with things getting down to the nitty-gritty, teams would be at their most focused, yet this weekend saw the following happen among our top teams from last week:

• #1 Georgia scored just 16 points on Kentucky and won by 10
• #2 Ohio State allowed 30 against Maryland, leading only 33-30 in the 4th quarter
• #3 Tennessee got rocked and shocked by the Gamecocks of South Carolina, 63-38
• #5 Michigan needed a last-second field goal to beat Illinois
• #6 TCU needed to scramble onto the field to set up the game-winning last-second field goal vs. Baylor
• #7 Utah lost to Oregon by three points
• #9 USC beat UCLA by three points in a 48-45 shootout
• #10 North Carolina lost to 5-6 Georgia Tech
• #13 Mississippi lost to Arkansas 42-27 even after scoring 21 in the 4th quarter
• #19 UCF lost to 4-7 Navy

Among all the top teams, only #4 Clemson looked like a Playoff team in beating Miami 40-10. #8 Alabama won 34-0 but that was against Austin Peay. So what happens to Clemson? They get knocked out of the Playoff in our latest projection:

LW  Rnk Team        Rec  Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold)
 1   1. Georgia     11-0 13-0 92.7  +3.2   
 2   2. Ohio State  11-0 13-0 90.1  +2.7   
 6   3. TCU         11-0 13-0 68.1 +36.7  
 9   4. USC         10-1 12-1 44.9 +36.9  L@Utah 43-42
 4   5. Clemson     10-1 12-1 36.1  -9.9  @Notre 35-14
 5   6. Michigan    11-0 11-1 29.4  -8.3  @OhioSt
 8   7. Alabama      9-2 10-2 11.3  +2.1  @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 3   8. Tennessee    9-2 10-2  8.7 -43.6  @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38
11   9. LSU          9-2 10-3  7.1  +1.3  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia
12  10. Penn State   9-2 10-2  5.5  +0.9  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
21  11. Oregon       9-2  9-4  2.5  +2.1  @GA 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt, =USC
16  12. Washington   9-2  9-3  0.9  -0.2  @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38, @WashSt
17  13. Florida St   8-3  9-3  0.7  -0.2  Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
 7  14. Utah         8-3  9-3  0.6 -10.7  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17
15  15. UCLA         8-3  9-3  0.5  -0.8  @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45
10  16. UNC          9-2 10-3  0.4  -6.5  @Notre 45-32, GTech 21-17, =Clemson
20  17. Oregon St    8-3  9-3  0.3  -0.1  USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21
13  18. Mississippi  8-3  9-3  0.2  -3.3  @LSU 45-20, Alab 30-24, @Ark 42-27
18  19. Notre Dame   8-3  8-4  0.1  -0.4  @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC
new 20. Tulane       9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31
14  21. Kansas St    8-3  9-4  0.0  -1.5  Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU
22  22. Texas        7-4  8-4  0.0   0.0  Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10
23  23. Louisville   7-4  8-4  0.0   0.0  @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem 31-16
24  24. UTSA         9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20
25  25. Troy         9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28

Dropped out: #19 UCF (8-3/9-4)

It really looked like Clemson's dreams were going to come true for a while. Tennessee was losing big, and TCU was in trouble as usual. And UCLA was beating USC. All of the Tigers' possible roadblocks were going to fall. But even though the Volunteers lost, TCU and USC ended up winning and now both look like they can run the table the rest of the way—very bad news for Clemson.

Georgia and Ohio State remain on top with very healthy odds to go 13-0 or still make the Playoff if they don't. TCU now looks like they can—maybe—squeak past Kansas State to go 13-0 but this is far from certain. They have to beat Iowa State too, before that. Nothing is certain with TCU which is why their odds are far from certainty level. 

Oregon's win over Utah not only propped the Ducks back to near the top ten, but it means that Oregon should get in the Pac-12 title game (even after losing to Oregon State) and play USC, a winnable game for the Trojans who are then 12-1 and in better shape than Clemson. Not just because they are already ahead of the Tigers in the Committee's rankings, but also because they play Notre Dame, the team that Clemson lost to. That really gives the Trojans the edge in a head-to-head comparison for the last spot—assuming they win. And North Carolina's loss to Georgia Tech diminishes Clemson's final résumé too.

Michigan barely beat Illinois but even had they lost they'd still be solidly in the Playoff hunt if they beat Ohio State. And that's looking more and more like a requirement. Like Clemson, Michigan's dream scenario almost occurred but only cleared Tennessee out of their path, while elevating two teams in front of the Wolverines should they lose to the Buckeyes as expected.

Speaking of Tennessee, after the blowout South Carolina loss the Committee in the end might not put them ahead of Alabama for a 3-point home win but certainly they'll be ahead of LSU assuming the Tigers finish 10-3. Even if the Tigers beat Georgia, which is a longshot itself, we still think they're a longshot to actually make the Playoff with 2 losses. 538 thinks otherwise, probably based on their current ranking of #6 in the Committee (pre-Tuesday announcement). ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave them a 45% chance last week if they win out, which seems more realistic but that will probably go up a lot when updated. We tend to think Georgia stays in; 538 vehemently disagrees (15% chance basically) while Predictor gives a 12-1 Georgia 84%. That's about where we are.

We show four Pac-12 teams from #11 to #15 and who knows what order they'll actually end up in, especially if Oregon State beats Oregon as we expect, and Washington State beats Washington. Right now the Ducks and Huskies are a bit ahead because they still have a theoretical chance of making the Playoff with 2 losses, while the others have three losses and have no actual chance (our formula still shows a fragment for several 3-loss teams nonetheless).

Tulane is our pick once again in the ever-revolving door that is the American Athletic Conference champ. We thought this had finally been settled after UCF beat both Tulane and Cincy on the field, but UCF's loss to Navy basically means that the winner of Tulane and Cincinnati will get the home field against UCF. And Tulane can win that game at home (even though they lost to home before to the Knights). In any rate, they move back in as UCF drops out, the only change in membership in our top 25.

Whether UTSA and Troy ever make their way in to the Committee's rankings, we'll have to see. It's getting rather stagnant at the bottom of the Committee's top 25, too, so I wouldn't be surprised if some new Group of Five teams enter this week. It might be Coastal Carolina, who we have pegged to lose to Troy for the Sun Belt title. Other than that, there are a lot of teams with 3 or 4 losses they could choose from, or they could keep all the American Athletic teams in despite the growing number of losses. 

Div II Playoffs: Pittsburgh State, NW Missouri wins lift MIAA conference

The Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association (MIAA) doesn't get a lot of press in the overall college football world but apparently it's been flying under our radar even in Division II. 

In some ways the MIAA is the opposite of the NAIA Frontier conference, which became overrated in our power ratings due to few connections to the rest of the NAIA world (side note: As it turns out, the Frontier wasn't completely overrated, given that Carroll MT nearly beat Grand View, the consensus #2 team in NAIA).

The 12 MIAA member teams each played 11 games, all against one another. So there was really no way to rank the teams accurately amongst the rest of Division II. Pittsburgh ranked #9 in our Combined power rating, and #18 in Strength, while NW Missouri State languished around #43.

Both teams were chosen for the 28-team Division II playoff, and both got off to a great start. Pittsburgh State beat Indianapolis 35-0 and Northwest Missouri State did even better, crushing previously unbeaten Ouachita Baptist 47-17.

The combined effect of these two performances was to establish the power of the MIAA, and Pittsburgh State jumped to #1 in our power rating as of today. Northwest Missouri State jumped to #3, and Nebraska-Kearney, Emporia State, and Washburn all flew into the top 10. In all, 9 of the 12 MIAA teams are now in the top 25.

Having two non-representative games isn't much better than having zero games to establish a conference's strength. Clearly the MIAA was underrated before as the results have shown, but now the conference is vastly overrated. Since both Pittsburgh State and NW Missouri State are still alive in the playoff, more comparisons will be made and a truer relative rating will emerge. 

But it confirms that the "pod" to which they both belong is by far the toughest of the four. It contains not only the #1 team (according to the coaches' poll) Grand Valley, but also #3 Ouachita Baptist, #4 Pittsburgh State, #5 Ferris State, and #8 NW Missouri State. Five top eight teams in one 7-team pod? And now arguably the best four teams in the nation are left, and only one can even make the "final four"!

Grand Valley will host NW Missouri next, while Pittsburgh State is at Ferris State. Looks like a final four already. Super Region Three seems very likely to produce the odds-on Division II champion. Will the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (Grand Valley and Ferris) or the MIAA come out on top?