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Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
Time: Friday, December 27 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: Fox Sports 1
#16 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3) vs. USC Trojans (8-4)
Iowa travels to San Diego to meet USC in what should be a close game.
Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 2 (over/under 52)
Strength power rating: #17 Iowa 24, #27 USC 23
Adjusted for turnovers: USC 25-22
Median game rating: Iowa 25-24
We give USC partial home field advantage for playing a few hours from home instead of a few thousand miles. The spread from our Strength power rating is closer to 2 points than one point, but rounding the scores gives a 1-point difference.
Adjusting for turnovers, where USC has had "back luck" and Iowa good fortune, turns the game into an expected 1-point win for the Trojans, given that turnovers are mostly random events that shouldn't be expected to occur at the same rate. Using the teams' median game performance average, which negates the effect of outlier games, Iowa is about a half-point favorite. It looks close!
Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2 Spread |
Iowa | 53% | 48% |
USC | 47% | 52% |
As expected from the Strength power rating results, cross-comparing game performances yields an Iowa win most of the time, but not covering a 2 point spread most of the time.
When Iowa has the ball
Iowa scoring offense: #61 |
USC scoring defense: #54 |
Iowa total offense: #75 |
USC total defense: #72 |
Iowa rushing offense: #69 |
USC rushing defense: #97 |
Iowa passing offense: #58 |
USC passing defense: #27 |
Iowa's scoring offense is just #97 in raw terms, but they've faced some of the toughest defenses in the country in the Big Ten (think Wisconsin, Penn State). Adjusted for that, Iowa's offense is roughly average for the FBS. Still not great, but not as lowly as their raw scores would indicate. Not surprisingly, the Hawkeyes lack stars on offense; QB Nate Stanley has a workmanlike 2,738 yards with a 14:7 TD:int ratio, and there are rotating feature players at RB and WR. If anything, their star on offense is kicker Keith Duncan, who has made 29 of 34 field goals; he's a big reason why Iowa is #5 in red zone percentage even though the Hawks only score touchdowns in the RZ around 50% of the time. USC's defense, meanwhile, is much like the Hawkeye offense—good but not great. Look for Iowa to try to run the ball against the Trojans.
When USC has the ball
USC scoring offense: #14 |
Iowa scoring defense: #3 |
USC total offense: #15 |
Iowa total defense: #12 |
USC rushing offense: #95 |
Iowa rushing defense: #24 |
USC passing offense: #4 |
Iowa passing defense: #11 |
Like Iowa, USC has faced tough defenses and their #34 offense gets an adjusted upgrade to #14. It's here where this game will look like a New Year's Day bowl, as Iowa has the #3 scoring defense. USC doesn't run the ball well but their passing game is huge with QB Kedon Slovis (3,242 yards, 28 TDs, 9 int) throwing to great targets like Michael Pittman Jr (1,222 yards, 11 TDs). The Hawkeyes have a solid pass defense but they are a bend-don't-break unit, so expect USC to throw for lots of yardage. How much they can score is the big question. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa has 9 sacks on the year.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Iowa #4 USC #98
Iowa has the clear edge here, mostly because of Lou Groza candidate Keith Duncan. USC's Chase McGrath is good, too, but not used nearly as often on field goals.
Iowa's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- Miami OH 38-14
- Rutgers 30-0
- @Iowa St 18-17
- MTSU 48-3
- @#14 Michigan 3-10
- #10 Penn State 12-17
- Purdue 26-20
- @Northwestern 20-0
- @#8 Wisconsin 22-24
- #18 Minnesota 23-19
- Illinois 19-10
- @Nebraska 27-24
Iowa lost only to Top 25 teams this season, and always by a close score: 7 points at Michigan; 5 points vs. Penn State; 2 points at Wisconsin. Their game ratings for these losses match or exceed most of their winning performances. Say what you want about Iowa but they are a very consistent team. They did beat Minnesota, who ended up ranked two spots below them at #18 so that was just another example of keeping things in order.
USC's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)
- Fresno St 31-23
- Stanford 45-20
- @Brigham Young 27-30 OT
- #11 Utah 30-23
- @Washington 14-28
- @#15 Notre Dame 27-30
- Arizona 41-14
- @Colorado 35-31
- #6 Oregon 24-56
- @Arizona St 31-26
- @California 41-17
- UCLA 52-35
USC had an up and down year, unlike consistent Iowa. The Trojans opened with a tepid win over Fresno, but impressed with a strong win over Stanford (who finished just 4-8). The next game was an overtime loss to BYU, and hopes of a big comeback season were dashed. They turned around and beat #11 Utah for their biggest win of the year.
Lest anyone think the Trojans were back again and would be beating ranked teams, they promptly lost the next 2 games at Washington and Notre Dame, and a bit later they lost big to Oregon. With coach Clay Helton on the hot seat the Trojans surprised again by impressively dispatching Arizona State, Cal, and UCLA. It was bumpy along the way but 8-4 ended up looking pretty decent, especially with a 5-1 finish.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Iowa's season: +1 win; USC's season: +3 wins
- Iowa's momentum: +1 win; USC's momentum: +2 wins
- Iowa glad to be here? yes; USC glad to be here: a grudging yes
- Iowa time zones from home: 2; USC time zones from home: 0
- Iowa coaching situation: unchanged; USC coaching situation: stablilized
It's very telling that Iowa finished with the same win total as last year (post bowl win), while USC had a strong turnaround from last year's 5-7, and somehow it's USC's fanbase that is unsatisfied with progress and almost had their head coach fired. The Trojans' strong finish saved Clay Helton's job, and if you ask their fans, they will grudgingly admit that there was progress from last year and going to the Holiday Bowl is a good thing. But in the back of their mind they are still expecting Pac-12 championships, if not national championships.
Final analysis
This is a good matchup. USC's offense is great, Iowa's defense is great. On the other side of the coin, well, neither team excels but they are still evenly matched. Over the last 3 games USC has taken their offense to even higher heights, but the defense continues to lag. Perhaps the game will be a higher scoring one than expected.
Iowa is very consistent, while USC is kind of all over the place. Iowa will play the same game it has played all year. In other words, it's USC that will determine who wins this game; the variance in the Trojan performance is definitely enough to push a projected close game one way or the other. And psychology probably determines whether they put forth a strong effort or not.
USC fans are ultimately not satisfied with the progress made this year, when they really should be. Another 3-win improvement and they'll be right back to challenging for championships. Iowa has no such expectations. Playing in California during an Iowa winter? That's good news. A 9-3 season? Better than most years. Losing the close games to the best teams? Not happy about that, but hey they beat Minnesota.
It seems that Iowa has a better attitude about their spot in the college football hierarchy, grousing occasionally but realizing that not everyone can be Ohio State. USC, on the other hand, expects to be Ohio State every year. Hell, they expect Ohio State to want to be USC!
So while Iowa is pleased to be taking on a team like USC in the bowl season, USC is playing near home (ho-hum) and playing a team that rarely figures in the national race. In 2003 both teams were ranked in the top ten when they met, and USC beat Iowa 38-17 in the Orange Bowl. USC was motivated for that game. The 2019 Holiday Bowl is a different matter. Only Iowa has motivation this time around.
Prediction: Iowa 37, USC 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.