Ohio State vs. Indiana was the marquee game but that result was overshadowed by upset losses by Alabama and Mississippi. Who benefitted most from their fall?
First we should answer, who got hurt most and in that case, it's clearly Mississippi. The Rebels, who lost at Florida 24-17, fell in our projection from 9th to 13th but more importantly, their odds of making the Playoff fell from 85% to just 5%. Basically, that 85% was the odds they could win out against the Gators and Mississippi State (a virtual lock game) and finish 10-2. But that third loss kills them. Alabama had a worse loss—24-3 at 5-6 Oklahoma—and fell a lot farther, from #3 to #11, but their odds remained at 65.1%, equal to Boise State's chances. Alabama's résumé is just better, with wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. If a current 3-loss team makes it, it will be Alabama. But who will open up a slot for them? Tennessee , who gained 16% to re-enter the Projected Playoff, might lose at Vanderbilt, but they beat Alabama and might stay above them. A better path is if the ACC is a 1-bid league. Miami is the favorite there but SMU is a solid #2 having moved up to #10 with a 41.5% gain, making the Mustangs the biggest beneficiary of the SEC teams' collapse.
Projected Record Odds
LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg
2 1. Ohio State *B10 10-1 11-1 11.0- 1.0 >99.9 +1.1 24.5 +11.8
1 2. Oregon B10 11-0 12-0 11.9- 0.1 >99.9 0.0 4.2 +1.6
4 3. Texas SEC 10-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 99.5 +1.1 19.6 +4.1
5 4. Notre Dame Ind 10-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 99.7 +16.3 17.9 +7.7
6 5. Georgia *SEC 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 96.8 -0.3 8.8 +0.4
10 6. Penn State B10 10-1 11-1 11.0- 1.0 98.1 +19.2 2.3 +0.8
7 7. Miami FL *ACC 10-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 84.8 +8.5 3.4 0.0
8 8. Indiana B10 10-1 11-1 11.0- 1.0 99.0 +14.4 3.7 -0.6
11 9. Tennessee SEC 9-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 73.6 +15.8 5.0 +2.2
13 10. SMU ACC 10-1 11-1 10.9- 1.1 73.2 +41.5 1.7 +1.3
3 11. Alabama SEC 8-3 9-3 8.9- 3.1 65.1 -33.0 6.6 -16.6
12 12. Boise St *MWC 10-1 11-1 11.0- 1.0 65.1 -3.4 0.3 0.0
9 13. Mississippi SEC 8-3 9-3 9.0- 3.0 5.0 -79.9 0.6 -12.7
Another team that benefitted? Indiana. Despite losing big at Ohio State, 38-15, the Hoosiers jumped to near-lock status at 99%. With just a home game vs. Purdue to go, they should finish 11-1 and that's good enough now that two 2-loss SEC teams got cleared away. Without those losses they would be much closer to the 75%-ish level of Miami and SMU. Penn State also cleared a hurdle at Minnesota (by 1 point) and travels to Maryland; unless the struggling Terps make that a trap game by declaring it "their bowl game" the Lions will be 11-1 and easily in the Playoff.
Notre Dame pretty much punched their ticket too by clobbering previously undefeated Army. Isn't it time the Irish, who were forgotten after the Northern Illinois loss, be declared a solid National title possibility? We show them third-most-likely to win it all. 2nd-most-likely is Texas, who can reach the SEC final by beating Texas A&M, but will have to play Georgia in Atlanta. Surprisingly the Bulldogs are the only team in the top ten to shed Playoff Odds, probably because they struggled a bit with UMass which puts the Georgia Tech game into slightly more doubt. The only way Georgia can miss the Playoff is by going 9-4. At the top of the chart is Ohio State, favored in the rematch with #2 Oregon, and both are Playoff locks though maybe if they both lose next week (to Michigan and USC) then the Big Ten title game loser has a tiny risk.
The SEC wasn't the only conference to collapse due to upsets: the Big Twelve has big trouble last weekend with the top two contenders being upset. BYU fell for the 2nd straight week, this time to Arizona State (28-23), who jumped from #22 to #15, right behind the Cougars who remained at #14. ASU added 24.5% but BYU only dropped 0.3%, and that's because main competitor Colorado lost to giant-killer Kansas, 37-21. The Buffs shed 31.5% and most of that went to Arizona State but BYU was helped, too, offsetting their own misfortune. Iowa State got a bump, too, and with four teams with 2 losses and EIGHT teams mathematically in the running for the title game, but BYU vs. ASU is the most likely scenario and BYU would be slightly favored on a neutral field. And there's a very slight chance the Big Twelve doesn't get one of the auto-bids, thanks to the Mountain West and American Athletic.
Projected Record Odds
LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg
14 14. Brigham Young *B12 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 41.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0
22 15. Arizona St B12 9-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 35.2 +24.5 0.2 +0.1
18 16. Tulane *AAc 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 31.7 +5.7 0.4 +0.1
17 17. Clemson ACC 9-2 9-3 9.5- 2.5 5.0 -1.6 0.1 -0.1
15 18. South Carolina SEC 8-3 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1
21 19. Iowa St B12 9-2 10-2 9.6- 2.4 20.1 +7.1 0.3 +0.1
19 20. Texas A&M SEC 8-3 8-4 8.2- 3.8 <0.1 -1.9 0.0 -0.1
16 21. Colorado B12 8-3 9-3 8.9- 3.1 <0.1 -31.5 <0.1 -0.2
23 22. UNLV MWC 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 6.4 +2.1 0.0 0.0
20 23. Army AAc 9-1 10-1 9.9- 1.1 0.3 -3.8 0.0 0.0
29 24. Missouri SEC 8-3 9-3 8.6- 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
34 25. Illinois B10 8-3 9-3 8.7- 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boise State is in pole position for the 4th or 5th auto-bid, with the Big Twelve currently taking the 5th non-bye slot. But when all is said and done the Big Twelve champ probably finishes ahead of Boise State; the many possibilities are holding the top teams back. But Tulane is shockingly close to the top Big Twelve teams and if they win out and the Big Twelve has another carnage week, we might see them shut out! UNLV still has a reasonable chance to make the Playoff with a MWC title game win, but they still need to get there first. Army's odd went from a low 4.1% to a microscopic 0.3%; their path? Beat Tulane in the AAC title game and hope for losses across the board in the Big 12 and for longshot Colorado State to win the Mountain West.
Texas A&M's odds above are clearly low since they can make the SEC title game with an upset of Texas and get in the Playoff by beating Georgia. My system doesn't try to figure out the tiebreakers for the conference title games so that possibility isn't viable, hence the <0.1% odds. In any case, their loss to Auburn made that their only path. Missouri re-enters the top 25 but they have no chance, nor does Illinois who enters our projection for the first time this season. #17 Clemson and #18 South Carolina actually play this weekend, a game that could kill Clemson's slim chance but won't help South Carolina's even slimmer hopes.
Outside the top 25 there are no teams that have any realistic chance, maybe Kansas State can leverage their slim chance at the Big Twelve title game to their favor if they beat Iowa State. I'll wait to see what happens in the Big Twelve instead of worrying about the tiebreaker. Projected Sun Belt winner Louisiana doesn't have a realistic shot any more; James Madison sort of did but they lost again and they can't win the conference. Ohio and Jacksonville State are favored to win the MAC and CUSA but that doesn't have Playoff ramifications.
Projected Record Odds
LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg
28 26. Kansas St B12 8-3 8-4 8.4- 3.6 <0.1 -0.6 100.0 0.0
30 27. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw 9-2 10-2 9.7- 2.3 0.0 -0.1 100.0 0.0
25 29. Washington St P12 8-3 9-3 8.9- 3.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
24 30. LSU SEC 7-4 8-4 7.6- 4.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
50 32. Ohio U. *MAC 8-3 9-3 8.9- 3.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
26 37. James Madison SUNe 8-3 9-3 8.6- 3.4 0.0 -0.2 100.0 0.0
66 42. Oklahoma SEC 6-5 6-6 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 +58.3
62 53. Boston College ACC 6-5 7-5 6.6- 5.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 +23.1
65 54. Jacksonville St *CUSA 8-3 8-4 8.4- 3.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
71 57. West Virginia B12 6-5 6-6 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 +36.0
Oklahoma's shocking win over Alabama punched their bowl game ticket; beforehand they were at just 42% odds of beating either Alabama or LSU. Speaking of LSU, the Tigers and Washington State, long-term occupants of our Projected Final Top 25, both lost and fell out. Boston College and West Virginia both got their 6th wins with a game to spare.
Who is causing all this carnage in the Big Twelve anyway? Well Kansas is a big culprit. The Jayhawks were once at 1.8% bowl game odds and after three upset wins they're at 43%. Given how they're playing they will probably be favored to win at Baylor (let me check: yes, Kansas by 1 point). Every other team below that gained bowl odds did so by reaching the 6-win mark: USC, Nebraska, Michigan, and Calfornia are all 6-5 now.
Projected Record Odds
LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg
59 60. Kansas B12 5-6 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 42.8 +25.4
48 63. Southern Cal B10 6-5 6-6 6.2- 5.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 +20.5
52 65. Cincinnati B12 5-6 6-6 5.6- 6.4 0.0 0.0 55.8 -18.8
72 69. Nebraska B10 6-5 6-6 6.2- 5.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 +42.2
69 71. Michigan B10 6-5 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 +23.7
75 76. UCLA B10 4-7 5-7 4.8- 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -23.0
58 77. Central Florida B12 4-7 5-7 4.7- 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.7
61 78. Wisconsin B10 5-6 5-7 5.5- 6.5 0.0 0.0 48.9 -30.1
74 81. California ACC 6-5 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 +10.3
79 82. North Texas AAc 5-6 6-6 5.8- 6.2 0.0 0.0 75.4 -16.0
UCLA and UCF lost all their bowl odds with their 7th losses. But Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and North Texas have one more shot. We favor the Bearcats at home against TCU but the oddsmakers don't; Wisconsin is in about a 50/50 game hosting Minnesota (oddsmakers have the Badgers by 2); and North Texas should beat Temple despite playing on the road.
Below, most teams lost bowl odds, including Old Dominion and Northwestern who are out of luck now. Everyone else has hope: Western Michigan faces Eastern Michigan, so one if them is guaranteed a bowl bid. As you can see by the bowl odds, the Broncos are favored 68.9% to 31.1% to win the game. Virginia is given a puncher's chance to win at Virginia Tech; Coastal Carolina was in good shape last week but lost to Georgia Southern, now they have to win at Georgia State; and ULM lost their 5th straight and now must beat rival ULL (Lousiana-Lafayette) to get a sixth win. ULM is the anti-Kansas, their bowl odds were sky-high several weeks ago.
Projected Record Odds
LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg
78 85. Old Dominion SUNe 4-7 5-7 4.8- 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -47.3
108 86. Appalachian St SUNe 5-5 5-6 5.2- 5.8 0.0 0.0 22.5 +18.9
85 88. Western Michigan MAC 5-6 6-6 5.7- 6.3 0.0 0.0 68.9 -14.6
82 89. Virginia ACC 5-6 5-7 5.1- 6.9 0.0 0.0 13.9 -20.0
84 91. Coastal Carolina SUNe 5-6 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 44.2 -32.8
97 92. Fresno St MWC 6-5 6-6 6.2- 5.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 +30.0
98 95. Texas-San Antonio AAc 6-5 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 +17.6
86 96. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 5-6 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 25.1 -43.1
94 103. Eastern Michigan MAC 5-6 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 31.1 -43.2
95 104. Northwestern B10 4-7 4-8 4.3- 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.2
Fresno State and UTSA bucked the trend by getting their 6th wins, but the odds were well in their favor before last weekend anyway. Appalachian State also improved their lot by upsetting James Madison 34-20. The Mountaineers were down to just 3.6% odds, needing two wins on their 11-game schedule, and it comes down to the Georgia Southern game where we give them a 22.5% shot. Oddsmakers have them just a 2 1/2 point road underdog though.