SportsRatings: College Football

2021 Week 13 Preview: Playoff Showdowns in the Big Ten, Big 12

Two week remain before the Committee makes their choices, and the Big Ten and Big 12 are really wide open. Three Big Ten teams control their destiny to the conference crown, while three Big 12 teams still have a chance to play for the Big 12 title. The pairings in most of the other conferences are pretty well set.

#3 Ohio State is once again in the biggest game of the week, playing at #7 Michigan in a Playoff eliminator. The winner will likely face #17 Wisconsin who is now potentially the biggest spoiler in the country. If either the Buckeyes or Wolverines finishes 12-1 they are guaranteed a Playoff spot, with Ohio State a possible though unlikely #1.

Unlike their Big Ten counterpart, a 12-1 Big 12 finisher isn't a lock. #4 Oklahoma State is pretty close to a lock at 12-1, but #13 Oklahoma might be in a battle with Georgia and Cincinnati for the last two spots if Alabama wins out. This week's matchup in Stillwater will determine the Big 12 title game contestants: If Oklahoma State wins they will face #11 Baylor. If Oklahoma wins they will have to face Oklahoma State again to "prove" it.

538's simulator has both 12-1 Oklahoma teams and Cincinnati well ahead of a 12-1 Georgia; ESPN/Allstate's predictor has 12-1 Georgia a lock with Cincy and the Big 12 winner left out. We see a 12-1 Georgia in at #3 and 12-1 Oklahoma State at #4, but Cincy may be at #4 ahead of a 12-1 Oklahoma. (Note that Georgia is projected at 12-1 below and #1, but that's due to their overall odds. Next week the projection will 'commit' to a scenario rather than using overall odds)

#1 Georgia has another presumably easy task ahead at Georgia Tech, while #2 Alabama has a tougher job at Auburn but is still a heavy favorite. #5 Cincinnati should have an easy time at East Carolina as should #6 Notre Dame at Stanford. As we've mentioned, Notre Dame is lacking a straightforward scenario where they make it in. They seem to be in fair shape if they go 11-1 but the likely potential scenarios block them one way or another. Without a Cincy loss and either Wisconsin winning the Big Ten or Baylor the Big 12, they're probably out of luck.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee final standings projection

Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  This weekend:            
 1. Georgia         1   11-0  12-1   78.9  @ Georgia Tech
 2. Alabama         3   10-1  12-1   76.2  @ Auburn
 3. Ohio State      2   10-1  12-1   71.4  @ #7 Michigan
 4. Oklahoma St     7   10-1  12-1   64.5    #13 Oklahoma
 5. Cincinnati      4   11-0  13-0   37.6  @ East Carolina
 6. Notre Dame      6   10-1  11-1   30.7  @ Stanford
 7. Michigan        5   10-1  10-2   12.9    #3 Ohio State
 8. Oregon         11    9-2  11-2    7.8    Oregon State
 9. Mississippi     9    9-2  10-2    6.2  @ Mississippi St
10. Wake Forest    18    9-2  11-2    4.6  @ Boston College
11. Baylor          8    9-2  10-3    3.0    Texas Tech
12. Brigham Young  13    9-2  10-2    1.9  @ USC
13. Oklahoma       10   10-1  10-2    1.4  @ #4 Oklahoma St
14. Iowa           16    9-2  10-2    1.0  @ Nebraska
15. Texas A&M      15    8-3   9-3    0.5  @ LSU
16. Pittsburgh     17    9-2  10-3    0.4  @ Syracuse
17. Wisconsin      14    8-3   9-4    0.3  @ Minnesota
18. UTSA           22   11-0  13-0    0.2  @ North Texas
19. Clemson        23    8-3   9-3    0.1  @ South Carolina
20. Utah           19    8-3   9-4   <0.1    Colorado
21. Michigan St    12    9-2   9-3   <0.1    #24 Penn State
22. Louisiana-Laf. --   10-1  12-1   <0.1    Louisiana-Monroe
23. Houston        24   10-1  11-2    0.0  @ UConn
24. Penn State     --    7-4   8-4    0.0  @ #21 Michigan St
25. NC State       20    8-3   8-4    0.0    North Carolina

At #8 and lower we have the real long shots, as no 2-loss team has ever made it. But Oregon still has a modicum of hope assuming every team above them collapses. They just need to beat rival Oregon State and then beat #20 Utah in the rematch. The fact that they're in a rivalry game, and at home, probably saves them from suffering a letdown from last week's debacle. Not so for #21 Michigan State, who suffered an even worse beatdown (they were down 49-0 at one point) and host #24 Penn State who isn't really a rival. Hence they're a 1 point underdog while Oregon is favored. We think Michigan State's hangover is worse than a 1-point loss, thus the projected fall to #21, but we'll see.

Other ranked teams that are underdogs by the oddsmakers include #9 Mississippi (2 point dogs at rival Mississippi State) and #14 Iowa (1 point dogs at Nebraska). We have both these teams winning but finishing 10-2 doesn't do much for them Playoff-wise. Iowa does still have a shot at winning the West division if Wisconsin loses at Minnesota, but then they have to beat the OSU-Michigan winner.

Speaking of Conference winners, #10 Wake Forest and #16 Pittsburgh are on a collision course and it's a tough call who wins that one. Both have great offenses and questionable defense. Both should slip past their opponents this week, and their performances might tip our projection. Right now we favor Wake to beat Pitt but that could change, and the teams would likely swap places in the projection if Pitt goes 11-2 instead.

A few weeks ago there were six teams in our rankings that weren't in the Committee rankings; now that's down to just two. Four of their teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, Minnesota, and Fresno State) dropped out, and they replaced them with three of ours (UTSA, Utah, and Clemson); we added one of theirs (NC State), and they added another that we don't have (Arkansas), leaving just (21) San Diego State and (25) Arkansas among their teams that we don't rank. The Aztecs can impress us by upsetting Boise State this week, while Arkansas probably moves in with a win over Missouri to finish at 8-4. We already have the Razorbacks at 8-4, but it depends on what else happens.

Right now Arkansas could be left out if Penn State indeed beats Michigan State. Our other team unranked by the Committee is Louisiana; they just need to beat ULM to finish 11-1, but we don't expect they'll be ranked by the Committee until they lock up the Sun Belt at 12-1.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 12: No changes, just more clarity

There's not a lot of change in our projections this week, which isn't a surprise since all the favored teams—the ones we favored at least—won as expected. Since ours is a Projection, those results were mostly already taken into account, whereas the Committee will have a lot of revising to do on Tuesday we don't.

Three teams had a chance to establish themselves as favorites to become 12-1 Power conference champions: Oregon, Wake Forest, and Michigan State. All three failed, often spectacularly. Of the three only the Spartans moved a lot from last week. Oregon, 3rd in the Committee rankings, was #7 last week on our projection and drops one spot. Wake Forest was #8 and falls to #10.

In Oregon's case it was the magnitude of the loss: 38-7 doesn't play well with the Committee. It also puts a lot of doubt as to whether the Ducks can win the rematch, but they're still (barely) pencilled in as Pac-12 champs. That could change.

Wake Forest was only 10th per the Committee, so after dropping for their big loss to Clemson they'll be lucky to claw their way back in the top ten. The loss was expected but another result—Pitt's win over Virginia—changed their ACC Coastal foe and made it a much tougher proposition to finish 11-2. It's close to 50/50 vs. Pittsburgh for the ACC title.

Meanwhile, while we're saying there are no changes, somehow there is a new #1 team. Georgia moves into the top spot for the first time this year in a paradoxical move: they're still pegged to (barely) lose the SEC title game to Alabama, but their odds to make the Playoff are greater than Alabama's given the potential scenarios. That is, a 12-1 Georgia is very likely still in, an 11-2 Alabama is very likely out. So while the Bulldogs only finish at the top if they go 13-0, their odds have moved them there despite a forecast 12-1 finish, and they gain more in odds percentage than any team this week. Alabama's difficulties vs. Arkansas didn't make the prospect of beating Georgia any more likely, that's for sure.

Ohio State and Oklahoma State hold as the other entrants. The Buckeyes demolished Michigan State almost exactly parallel, quarter for quarter, the way Georgia did to Charleston Southern. And the Cowboys blanked Texas Tech, which doesn't happen often. The Red Raiders were averaging over 33 points per game and hadn't been shut out since 1997.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee Rankings final projection: post-week 12 (11/22/2021 w/last week's CFP ranking, current and projected record)

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg  ±Chg  Results:            
 2   1. Georgia         1   11-0  12-1   78.9  +8.2  up 1  W Charleston 56-7
 1   2. Alabama         2   10-1  12-1   76.2  +3.4  dn 1  W Arkansas 42-35
 3   3. Ohio State      4   10-1  12-1   71.4  +5.0  ---   W Michigan St 56-7
 4   4. Oklahoma St     9   10-1  12-1   64.5  +4.4  ---   W @Texas Tech 23-0
 5   5. Cincinnati      5   11-0  13-0   37.6  +2.2  ---   W SMU 48-14
 6   6. Notre Dame      8   10-1  11-1   30.7  +1.6  ---   W Georgia Tech 55-0
 9   7. Michigan        6   10-1  10-2   12.9  +3.7  up 2  W @Maryland 59-18
 7   8. Oregon          3    9-2  11-2    7.8  -4.7  dn 1  L @Utah 38-7
11   9. Mississippi    12    9-2  10-2    6.2  -0.7  up 2  W Vanderbilt 31-17
 8  10. Wake Forest    10    9-2  11-2    4.6  -5.7  dn 2  L @Clemson 48-27
10  11. Baylor         11    9-2  10-3    3.0  -5.1  dn 1  W @Kansas St 20-10
12  12. Brigham Young  14    9-2  10-2    1.9  -4.0  ---   W @GA Southern 34-17
13  13. Oklahoma       13   10-1  10-2    1.4  -3.3  ---   W Iowa State 28-21
14  14. Iowa           17    9-2  10-2    1.0  -2.6  ---   W Illinois 33-23
20  15. Texas A&M      16    8-3   9-3    0.5  +0.2  up 5  W Prairie View 52-3
18  16. Pittsburgh     18    9-2  10-3    0.4  -0.2  up 2  W Virginia 48-38
17  17. Wisconsin      15    8-3   9-4    0.3  -0.4  ---   W Nebraska 35-28
16  18. UTSA           22   11-0  13-0    0.2  -0.6  dn 2  W UAB 34-31
19  19. Clemson        --    8-3   9-3    0.1  -0.3  ---   W Wake Forest 48-27
21  20. Utah           23    8-3   9-4   <0.1  -0.2  up 1  W Oregon 38-7
15  21. Michigan St     7    9-2   9-3   <0.1  -0.9  dn 6  L @Ohio State 56-7
23  22. Louisiana-Laf. --   10-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  W @Liberty 48-14
24  23. Houston        24   10-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Memphis 31-13
25  24. Penn State     --    7-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Rutgers 23-0
--  25. NC State       20    8-3   8-4    0.0   0.0  new   W Syracuse 41-17

Dropped out: #22 Arizona State

Cincinnati and Notre Dame are #5 and #6 but despite close percentage numbers, their realities are pretty far apart. It's true that the Irish are putting up good performances—55-0 vs. Georgia Tech is something Georgia is unlikely to accomplish next week—but they are almost in a position of needing the Bearcats to lose to have any hope. There are many ways a spot can open up for Cincinnati, but even two spots opening up doesn't mean Notre Dame gets in. If spots are guaranteed for Georgia-Alabama, Ohio State-Michigan, and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State if they win out, then Cincinnati is well-situated to take the last slot—if the losing SEC team doesn't. But any chaos—a Wisconsin Big Ten win, or Baylor winning the Big 12—puts Cincy in but the Irish are either #5 or #6 without a Cincinnati loss.

In other words, it isn't difficult to make a scenario where Cincinnati is in. But building a Notre Dame scenario is a lot tougher, even though they're next in line. The "roadblock" effect, along with not having a conference championship, is all the difference.

Michigan moves up to #7 with hopes to unseat Ohio State next weekend. Note that only the top seven teams increased their odds of making the Playoff while everyone else dipped; that's because it's crunch time and the results are coming in. There are not many points left for potential.

Michigan State the biggest loser, Texas A&M the big winner

Michigan State suffers the biggest fall, from #15 to #21. They remain projected at 9-3 which includes a loss next week to Penn State, so they still have opportunity on their side. But without a chance for a conference title they have no real chance at all. The Spartans were supposed to lose, but they weren't supposed to lose 56-7 and the Committee really hates blowout losses.

Texas A&M meanwhile moves up from #20 to #15, all due to the Committee's ranking of 16th from last week. Can't argue with the actual ranking when you're projecting...the actual ranking. Five spots for beating Prairie View A&M is a pretty good deal. They also gain a tiny amount of odds, up from 0.3% to 0.5% to make the Playoff, but that's basically a rounding error saying they have no hope.

Pittsburgh pulled off the only real 'upset' according to our projections, and that puts them at 10-2 instead of the 9-3 we had before. But they're just on the wrong end of the ACC title game vs. Wake Forest so they still have three losses and jump only to #16. This leaves open a shot to move up further in the final rankings of course.

Clemson didn't get the same boost. The Tigers already have three losses and they didn't make the conference title game and stay at a projected #19. They haven't made the actual Committee rankings yet so this may proved to be too high.

Utah only marginally boosted their profile as they'll have to beat Oregon again to win the Pac-12 and beating a team twice—even one you beat 38-7—is tough. This one won't be a home game either. Mostly the Utes will be playing "what if" as in, what if we hadn't lost in overtime to San Diego State, and hadn't let Oregon State come back on us...then the Pac-12 championship would likely be for a Ute Playoff berth.

Three non-Committee teams left

Now that once-promising Arizona State has exited the stage for good, and there might not be any new teams in the Committee's list this week, there are only three teams on our list that aren't on theirs (and vice versa). We covered Clemson; a 9-3 Clemson will probably make a token appearance in the final or penultimate rankings. Penn State will make it in if they beat Michigan State, and won't if they don't. That leaves Louisiana-Lafayette, 10-1 now after an impressive 48-14 road win at Liberty. There's no room this week but if the Ragin' Cajuns go 12-1 they'll be in the final poll.

2021 Week 12 Preview: Proving ground for underdogs Michigan State, Oregon, Wake Forest

It's week 12 (some call this week 13, but those in the know call the first mini-weekend of games "week 0") and we're getting down to the nitty-gritty in the College Football Playoff. From here on out there are going to be high-leverage games all over the place. This week's big games feature three 1-loss teams that are all underdogs both by the oddsmakers and our projections; if they win these games it would radically change our Playoff landscape.

The Marquee Event: Ohio State vs. Michigan State

This top-line game, featuring the Committee's 4th and 7th-ranked teams, will get all the attention, as it should. Ohio State is our #4 and Michigan State is just #15—partly because they're supposed to lose this game and ours is a final rankings projection. A win by the Spartans would put them firmly in the Big Ten driver's seat, and bump them into our top ten—still expected to lose to Penn State, however. Ohio State would have a 2nd loss which would crush their Playoff hopes. A Buckeye win keeps them on track and would mean that Michigan control their own destiny for the Big Ten title and therefore, the Playoff.

The rest of our top four has a mixed bag of challenges. #1 Alabama, after a week of rest vs. New Mexico State, faces Arkansas who is 21st on the Committee's list. At a projected 8-4 they're right on the verge of making our list, win or lose (of course, "win" gets them there much quicker). #4 Oklahoma State travels to Texas Tech, which is no gimme. #2 Georgia is the only one that gets a bye week, taking on Charleston Southern. But regardless of how daunting the other teams' challenges seem, the oddsmakers don't have much confidence in their challengers: all three are double-digit favorites, with Alabama a 20 1/2 point favorite, while Ohio State is a remarkable 19 point favorite over Michigan State.

SportsRatings Playoff final rankings projection w/current CFP Committee ranking and next game

Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds   This weekend:
 1. Alabama         2   9-1   12-1   72.8   Arkansas(21)
 2. Georgia         1  10-0   12-1   70.7   Charleston So. 
 3. Ohio State      4   9-1   12-1   66.5   #15 Michigan St 
 4. Oklahoma St     9   9-1   12-1   60.2 @ Texas Tech
 5. Cincinnati      5  10-0   13-0   35.4   SMU
 6. Notre Dame      8   9-1   11-1   29.1   Georgia Tech
 7. Oregon          3   9-1   11-2   12.5 @ #21 Utah
 8. Wake Forest    10   9-1   11-2   10.4 @ #19 Clemson 
 9. Michigan        6   9-1   10-2    9.2 @ Maryland
10. Baylor         11   8-2   10-3    8.1 @ Kansas State
11. Mississippi    12   8-2   10-2    7.0   Vanderbilt
12. BYU            14   8-2   10-2    5.8 @ GA Southern
13. Oklahoma       13   9-1   10-2    4.7   Iowa State
14. Iowa           17   8-2   10-2    3.6   Illinois
15. Michigan St     7   9-1    9-3    0.9 @ #3 Ohio State 
16. UTSA           22  10-0   13-0    0.8   UAB
17. Wisconsin      15   7-3    9-4    0.7   Nebraska
18. Pittsburgh     18   8-2    9-3    0.6   Virginia
19. Clemson        --   7-3    9-3    0.4   #8 Wake Forest 
20. Texas A&M      16   7-3    9-3    0.3   Prairie View A&M
21. Utah           23   7-3    9-4    0.2   #7 Oregon
22. Arizona St     --   7-3    9-3    0.1 @ Oregon State
23. Louisiana-Laf. --   9-1   12-1   >0.1 @ Liberty
24. Houston        24   9-1   11-2   >0.1   Memphis
25. Penn State     --   6-4    8-4    0.0   Rutgers

Just outside the top 4—with the Committee as well—is Cincinnati who hosts SMU. A while back this was supposed to be their "big game" and another notch in their belt if they win. It's not a bad win still, but at 8-2 SMU isn't the skin they would be at 10-0 as everyone seemed to expect from them. Cincy is a low-double-digit favorite as is #6 Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech.

Oregon and Wake Forest: Far Away, So Close

9-1 Oregon is 3rd in the Committee rankings, while 9-1 Wake Forest is 10th. We have them much closer, at #7 and #8 because we're projecting both to lose this weekend, recover and win the title of their weak conference (Pac-12 and ACC respectively). Interestingly the oddsmakers also favor #21 Utah to beat Oregon and #19 Clemson (remember Clemson?) to top the Demon Deacons. So our scenario isn't so outrageous after all.

If Oregon prevails, we'll have them at 12-1 and much closer to the Committee's #3 seeding. If Wake Forest wins they'll probably project to 12-1 also, which puts them somewhere around #5 to #7. They might be ahead of Cincinnati, but they also might remain behind Notre Dame. It's a tough call, one of the toughest. And while Utah is pretty firmly entrenched as the Pac-12 South winner, currently we project Wake's ACC title game foe as Virginia, when that could change if Pittsburgh beats them as the oddsmakers widely expect. A Pitt-Wake ACC final is as close to a tossup as you can get.

We still have Utah losing in the Pac-12 title game even with the projected regular-season home win over Oregon. And Clemson (remember Clemson?) is pretty well shut out of the ACC title game and a win over Wake Forest just means they finish 9-3 and finally make the Committee's top 25.

Best of the Rest: Baylor, Oklahoma, UTSA, ASU, and Louisiana face tests

#9 Michigan is a double-digit favorite over Maryland, as is #12 BYU over Georgia Southern, #14 Iowa over Illinois, and #17 Wisconsin over Nebraska. But there are some games that are in doubt. Both #10 Baylor and #13 Oklahoma have tough games, with the Bears even money at Kansas State and the Sooners a narrow favorite over Iowa State at home. #16 Texas-San Antonio is a five-point favorite at home vs. UAB. And Arizona State is favored by less than a field goal at Oregon State.

One team that's going to have a very easy time moving up in our projections is Texas A&M. We projected their loss to Mississippi last week, and they even moved up a spot for their trouble. This week they play Prairie View A&M and they'll move up quite a bit more—due to the Committee's rankings where the Aggies are #16. They're #16 at 7-3 and we project them to be at #20 at 9-3. That doesn't really jibe, so unless Prairie View pulls off an upset for the ages the Aggies will make a big jump commensurate with their Committee ranking.

Louisiana-Lafayette is our projected #23 team but they've yet to crack the Committee's rankings. Maybe a game with 7-3 Liberty would help their cause? It could, but it might also knock them out of our rankings instead. The Ragin' Cajuns are a solid 4 point road dog against the Flames.

Now there are only four teams in our rankings that aren't in the Committee's, as Houston joined at #24, the same place we have them. We project the Cougars to finish 11-2, which is obviously what you get if you win two more games then lose to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference title game. The four not-on-our-list teams are (with Committee ranking): 

• (19) San Diego State (9-1) travels to UNLV this week but faces Boise State in their last game
• (20) NC State (7-3) who faces Syracuse and then North Carolina, where we expect their fourth loss
• (21) Arkansas (7-3) - we've covered them with regard to Alabama above
• (25) Mississippi State (6-4) has a gimme vs. Tennessee State then faces rival Mississippi after that

This is why we think the future doesn't bode well for these teams. They face a very tough opponent either this week or next. Still, we note that Arkansas's loss is expected and they might slide in anyway, and San Diego State might still be ranked at 10-2 even with a loss to Boise.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 11: Oklahoma OUT, Oklahoma State IN

One of Malcolm Gladwell's famous books is The Tipping Point, referring to the point at which a very subtle shift triggers a major change. Well, our College Football Committee final standings projections had one of those after this weekend.

Oklahoma's loss, which we figured would drop the Sooners from #2 to #4, instead pushed them from 13-0 to a projected 10-2 and all the way down to #13. The reason is that the game at Oklahoma State became a loss, and with that the Big 12 Championship Game no longer includes Oklahoma. Instead it's Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, with the Cowboys the projected winner. They finish 12-1 and #4 in our projection, up from #9 last week.

Oklahoma State has been playing lights out since their 24-21 loss at Iowa State. They beat Kansas 55-3—the same Kansas team that almost upset the Sooners and did upset Texas on Saturday. They handled West Virginia 24-3 on the road, then blasted TCU 63-17 the week after the Horned Frogs had upset Baylor.

Their improvement is as much responsible for the switch as Oklahoma's noted struggles, but without the Baylor upset Oklahoma would still make the Big 12 title game and possibly still win on a neutral field. That was Oklahoma's best 12-1 scenario. Now they have to beat Oklahoma State twice, and beating the same team twice in a row just doesn't have the same impact on the Committee (who already ranked them pretty low at #8). It also devalues your main conquest. So Oklahoma's chances going forward are definitely compromised. They'd be better off winning a rematch with Baylor, but that would require Oklahoma State to lose next week to Texas Tech.

Georgia and Ohio State moved up to #2 and #3 after beating Tennessee and Purdue, two solid wins. Alabama beat the 51-point spread against woeful New Mexico State and remained #1. Cincinnati remained outside looking in at #5, with Notre Dame and Oregon following at #6 and #7.

SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Committee rankings, post-week 11
(11/14/2021, with last week's CFP ranking and weekend results):

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds   %Chg  ±Chg   Results:
 1   1. Alabama         2   9-1   12-1   72.8   +1.5   ---   W NM State 59-3
 3   2. Georgia         1  10-0   12-1   70.7   +5.1   up 1  W @Tenn 41-17
 4   3. Ohio State      4   9-1   12-1   66.5   +6.9   up 1  W (19)Purdue 59-31
 9   4. Oklahoma St    10   9-1   12-1   60.2  +50.3   up 5  W TCU 63-17
 5   5. Cincinnati      5  10-0   13-0   35.4   +0.5   ---   W @USF 45-28
 6   6. Notre Dame      9   9-1   11-1   29.1   +0.2   ---   W @Virginia 28-3
 7   7. Oregon          3   9-1   11-2   12.5   -0.1   ---   W Wash St 38-24
11   8. Wake Forest    12   9-1   11-2   10.4   +2.2   up 3  W (16)NC State 45-42
16   9. Michigan        6   9-1   10-2    9.2   +8.2   up 7  W @#13 Penn St 21-17
17  10. Baylor         13   8-2   10-3    8.1   +7.1   up 7  W #2 Oklahoma 27-14
 8  11. Mississippi    15   8-2   10-2    7.0   -3.7   dn 3  W #21 Texas A&M 29-19
10  12. BYU            14   8-2   10-2    5.8   -3.2   dn 2    idle
 2  13. Oklahoma        8   9-1   10-2    4.7  -64.8   dn 11 L @#17 Baylor 27-14
12  14. Iowa           20   8-2   10-2    3.6   -3.7   dn 2  W Minnesota 27-22
14  15. Michigan St     7   9-1    9-3    0.9   -1.4   up 1  W Maryland 40-21
18  16. UTSA           23  10-0   13-0    0.8    0.0   up 2  W So. Miss 27-17
19  17. Wisconsin      18   7-3    9-4    0.7    0.0   up 2  W Nwestern 35-7
20  18. Pittsburgh     21   8-2    9-3    0.6   +0.1   up 2  W UNC 30-23 OT
15  19. Clemson        --   7-3    9-3    0.4   -1.1   dn 4  W UConn 44-7
21  20. Texas A&M      11   7-3    9-3    0.3   -0.1   up 1  L @#8 Ole Miss 29-19
22  21. Utah           24   7-3    9-4    0.2   -0.2   up 1  W @Arizona 38-29
23  22. Arizona St     --   7-3    9-3    0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Washington 35-30  
24  23. Louisiana-Laf. --   9-1   12-1   <0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Troy 35-21
25  24. Houston        --   9-1   11-2   <0.1    0.0   up 1  W @Temple 37-8
13  25. Penn State     --   6-4    8-4    0.0   -3.2   dn 12 L #16 Michigan 21-17

Dropped out: none

Michigan's win over Penn State was an "upset" by our projections so it helped the Wolverines as much as Baylor's win did them; both jumped 7 spots and are projected 10-2, neither making their conference title games. The Nittany Lions suffered their 4th loss but held on to our #25 spot since they're still pegged to beat Michigan State in 2 weeks.

Wake Forest beat NC State and jumped from #11 to #8, and this change is even weirder than a "tipping point"—it's a bug fix. Our projection had been wallowing under the mistaken impression that, since North Carolina is in the ACC, Wake Forest's loss to the Tar Heels—which had been projected all season—would count as a conference loss. But it turns out it's a non-conference game. Which means Wake Forest is the Atlantic winner (and should have been for several weeks). This gives them a conference title, beating Virginia and finishing 11-2. Mississippi falls to #11 despite beating Texas A&M because of Wake's technicality and being passed by the 2 other 10-2 teams from behind. BYU and Iowa are also pushed down 2 spots from the surging duo, while Michigan State falls just one spot to #15.

And since Clemson no longer gets to the ACC title game they become a typical 9-3 team and slip accordingly, allowing UTSA, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh, all of whom won a game one way or another, to rise a bit but without increasing their tiny odds of making the Playoff.

The rest of the list moves up a spot due to Penn State's slide from #13 to #25. This includes Texas A&M (who lost to Mississippi), Utah (who escaped Arizona's upset bid), Arizona State (who beat Washington and made them fire their coach), Louisiana-Lafayette who beat Troy, and Houston who handled Temple easily.

No teams fell out of the projection this week, the first time that's happened. Penn State is still projected to be 8-4, and with Auburn losing and now projected to be 7-5, Penn State held on at #25. Teams that are in our Projection but not the Committee's top 25 went 4-1 this week after going 6-0 last week for a cumulative 10-1.

On the other hand, teams only in the Committee's top 25 and not in our Final Projection went 2-3 after a 2-4 outing last week, for a 4-7 record. This weekend (16) NC State, (17) Auburn, and (19) Purdue all lost, while (22) San Diego State won and (25) Arkansas edged LSU in overtime.

That makes room for 2 or 3 new teams in the upcoming Committee top 25. It doesn't look like any of the five in our projection are ripe for entry necessarily. Certainly Penn State won't make their debut this week, and there's no compelling reason for a 3-loss Clemson or ASU yet. 9-1 Louisiana? Maybe. 9-1 Houston is probably the most likely of the five to show up on Tuesday.

As for the opposite: Considering they keep losing, there's not much reason for the Committee's teams to show up in our projection. Of the only two that won this week, San Diego State is projected 10-2 so they're on the brink but probably need to beat Boise State in 2 weeks to make the Mountain West title game. Arkansas is actually #26 at a projected 8-4, so they might make it next week even if they lose to Alabama. And if they beat Alabama, they'll jump in for sure.

Why Florida is struggling with Samford

Florida trailed Samford 42-35 at the half.

AT THE HALF

Which I suppose is better than trailing Samford at the end of the game, but that's pretty wild. Obviously Florida was having problems lately, with the team collapsing against South Carolina in a 40-7 loss.

You would think that a game vs. Samford was a time to regroup, get a pretty easy win, and move on with the season. After all Samford is only the #178 team in the country. But here's why we should have expected some trouble:

All-Division Offense rankings:

Rnk Team                             Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
89. South Carolina              5-4   52.24 [ 89]   -1.86 [ 58]
90. Ferris St                   9-0   52.05 [ 90]   19.31 [271]
91. Stanford                    3-6   51.93 [ 91]    1.04 [ 88]
92. Villanova                   7-2   51.58 [ 92]    2.55 [103]
93. Colorado St                 3-6   51.52 [ 93]   -1.60 [ 63]
94. Central Arkansas            5-4   51.47 [ 94]   14.77 [215]
95. Rutgers                     4-5   51.39 [ 95]   -2.80 [ 48]
96. Samford                     4-5   51.15 [ 96]   20.97 [295]

Above are the All-Division offensive ratings. Samford, the #178 team, has the #96 offense. That's not very far from South Carolina's #89 ranking.

Florida ranks #31 on defense so neither team's offense should have been a problem, but their defense couldn't stop the Gamecocks. Something was wrong with the team mentally and emotionally. So why shouldn't they have problems against the Bulldogs offense?

On the other hand, look at Samford's defensive ranking: #295. Much, much worse than South Carolina's #58 ranking. So even though Florida's offense was worthless against SC, it's no wonder that even a depleted, depressed Gator team is scoring against Samford.

Maybe a halftime pep-talk will make the Gator defense play closer to its abilities.

As of this writing Florida has retaken the lead early in the 2nd half, 49-42. We hope everyone took the "over."