SportsRatings: College Basketball

2023 Jan. 30 update: Big 12 wins Challenge, but SEC has two 1-seeds

The big news last week was the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge. While the Big Twelve won 7 games to 3, the SEC did win three of the biggest games and ended up with two 1-seeds in this week's Dance Chance NCAA tournament bracket projection.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
  1. Purdue                   21-1   29-2    B10    99.9   +1.3    1    1
  2. Tennessee                18-3   28-3    SEC    99.8   +2.6    1    2
  3. Alabama                  18-3   27-4    SEC    99.5   +1.5    1    1
  4. Houston                  20-2   29-2    Amer   99.1   +2.6    1    2

Tennessee stormed back onto the 1-line for about the third time this season after beating Texas 82-71 in the Challenge. Their 70-41 win over Georgia had just as much to do with it, as it put them at #1 in Strength this week. Meanwhile Alabama completely shrugged off their huge loss to Oklahoma and held their spot on the top line. While their Strength rating suffered, their games going forward were unaffected as the Tide is a hearty favorite over every opponent except Tennessee.

Realistically, though the SEC is almost certain to have a top seed, they are very unlikely to have two. Whichever team wins their February 15th showdown in Knoxville has the inside track, but ultimately the SEC tournament will decide which team takes a top slot.

Purdue remained the #1 overall seed and is approaching the rare 100% designation; they'll probably get it if they can get past Indiana on the road come Saturday, the only game they're expected to lose going forward. Joining the top line again is Houston; the Cougars narrowly escaped at home vs. Cincinnati but have pretty smooth sailing ahead. A third loss would really compromise their 1-seed hopes, though.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
  5. UCLA                     17-4   27-4    P12    98.7   +1.1    2    1
  6. Arizona                  19-3   27-4    P12    98.4   +2.2    2    2
  7. Texas                    17-4   24-7    B12    98.0   +2.6    2    3
  8. Kansas                   17-4   24-7    B12    97.6   +1.9    2    3
  9. TCU                      16-5   24-7    B12    97.3   +2.2    3    3
 10. Kansas St.               18-3   24-7    B12    96.9   +4.4    3    5
 11. Iowa St.                 15-5   21-9    B12    96.5   -1.8    3    1
 12. Gonzaga                  18-4   26-5    WCC    96.2   +1.5    3    3

UCLA slips out of the top line after losing to USC 77-64, and narrowly remains ahead of Arizona on the 2-seed line. Like the SEC, the Pac-12 has two dominant teams, one of which could find their way to a top spot if they win the Pac-12 tournament. The Wildcats already have a win over Tennessee.

The rest of the 2-3 seed area is Big Twelve territory, with five teams in a row in the 2s and 3s.  Texas moved up a seed despite the (expected) loss to Tennessee and becomes the top-ranked Big 12 team. Kansas joins them as a 2-seed despite losing to Baylor last week; they rebounded with the win at Kentucky which either was a major upset or an expected event, depending on who you ask (the Strength ratings say it was expected). 

TCU had a mixed week, a huge 79-52 win over Oklahoma followed by an overtime loss at a faltering Mississippi State. It ended up a wash for the Horned Frogs. Kansas State lost to Iowa State on the road but beat Florida handily; again, both results were expected but the Wildcats outperformed in both games, pushing their projection from 22-9 to 24-7 and moving them up two seeds. The reverse happened for the Cyclones, who were a 24-7 1-seed last week but were upset 78-61 at Missouri and now project to 21-9.

Both Kansas State and Iowa State, and really pretty much all of these Big 12 teams have a number of very close games coming up that will determine the pecking order once and for all. Any of these five (plus Baylor) could end up on top. Thought the Big Twelve should ultimately produce a 1-seed, with infighting and an upset winner in the Big Twelve tournament, it's possible the conference ends up with three 2s and three 3s.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
 13. Indiana                  15-6   23-8    B10    95.8   +1.5    4    4
 14. Baylor                   16-5   22-9    B12    95.4   +1.9    4    4
 15. Connecticut              16-6   24-7    BE     95.1   -1.8    4    2
 16. Virginia                 16-3   25-4    ACC    94.7   +1.5    4    4
 17. Rutgers                  14-7   22-9    B10    94.3   +0.4    5    4
 18. Florida Atlantic         21-1   29-2    CUSA   94.0   +1.1    5    5
 19. Marquette                17-5   24-7    BE     93.6   +1.5    5    5
 20. Xavier                   17-5   24-7    BE     93.2   +2.6    5    6

Not much going on here except UConn continuing to falter; the Huskies lost at home to Xavier, 82-79, their 6th loss in their last 8 games. Formerly the top overall seed, UConn is still #5 in Strength and expected to win 8 of their last 9 games but now that's only good enough for a 4-seed. They have road games at DePaul and Georgetown and if they lose either of those their season is in trouble, and either Marquette or Xavier (both 5-seeds) will be in the Big East driver's seat.

4-seed Indiana faces top overall seed Purdue this coming Saturday, and the Hoosiers are expected to win that one. The game before that, at Maryland, is one of the 2 remaining games they're supposed to lose, so that's where they could advance their position. Baylor takes on 2-seed Texas in Austin, a big chance for the Bears to join the rest of the Big 6 in the higher seeds. 

Florida Atlantic now has the longest winning streak in the country at 20 games, and they will be tested this week in perhaps their toughest remaining games: at UAB and at Charlotte. The Strength power rating narrowly favors UAB to beat the Owls, while FAU is the narrow favorite at Charlotte. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
 21. Saint Mary's             19-4   26-5    WCC    92.9   +1.5    6    6
 22. Creighton                13-8   23-8    BE     92.5   +2.6    6    7
 23. Duke                     15-6   23-8    ACC    92.1  +12.4    6    8
 24. Illinois                 15-6   21-10   B10    91.8   +5.4    6    7
 25. New Mexico               19-3   26-5    MWC    91.4   +1.1    7    6
 26. North Carolina           15-6   23-8    ACC    89.5   -1.5    7    6
 27. Boise St.                17-5   24-7    MWC    87.8   +3.1    7    7
 28. Utah St.                 17-5   26-5    MWC    86.1   +4.7    7    8
 29. Iowa                     13-8   20-11   B10    84.4  +13.0    8    9
 30. West Virginia            13-8   18-13   B12    82.7  +21.3    8   11
 31. Providence               17-5   23-8    BE     80.9   +2.9    8    8
 32. Ohio St.                 11-10  19-12   B10    79.2   -3.8    8    8

Duke has been quiet lately and had slipped to an 8-seed before last weekend, where an 86-43 drubbing of Georgia Tech gave them a boost to a 6-seed. The Blue Devils are at home against Wake Forest and 7-seed North Carolina this week.

Most of the 7-seed is the Mountain West, still led by New Mexico with Boise State and Utah State close behind. The Lobos travel to face the Aggies on Wednesday. Boise State travels to San Diego State on Friday. In both cases the home teams are favored. Though not as important as the Big 12, the Mountain West is possibly the tightest race, with five teams vying for control.

Of all the Big 12 teams in the SEC challenge West Virginia may have improved their March situation the most. The Mountaineers beating Auburn wasn't a surprise as they are #20 in Strength, but that win and their 76-61 win over Texas Tech boosted their projected record from a questionable 16-15 to a tournament-worthy 18-13, a big difference. They move up from an 11-seed to an 8-seed.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
 33. San Diego St.            17-4   22-8    MWC    77.5   +7.8    9   10
 34. N.C. State               17-5   24-7    ACC    75.8   +1.1    9    9
 35. Nevada                   16-6   23-8    MWC    74.1   -2.3    9    9
 36. Arkansas                 14-7   21-10   SEC    72.4   +6.0    9   10
 37. Missouri                 16-5   23-8    SEC    70.7  +46.2   10     
 38. Oral Roberts             19-4   26-4    Sum    68.9   +4.2   10   10
 39. Kentucky                 14-7   20-11   SEC    67.2   +7.5   10   11
 40. Northwestern             15-5   19-12   B10    65.5  +10.8   10   12p
 41. Maryland                 14-7   20-11   B10    63.8  +12.4   11   12p
 42. Sam Houston St.          16-5   25-5    WAC    62.1   +9.0   11   12
 43. Miami FL                 16-5   21-9    ACC    60.4  -12.7   11    9
 44. Charleston               21-2   29-2    CAA    58.6  -33.1   11    5

Of the SEC winners in the Big 12 Challenge, none improved their lot more than Missouri, projected to be an also ran well outside the bubble before they crushed Iowa State 78-61 and made themselves a solid 10-seed. Meanwhile a couple of Challenge losers on Saturday, Arkansas and Kentucky, did well enough that they actually moved up a seed line each (both teams won games earlier in the week, too).

The big news here is the College of Charleston, formerly a 5-seed when priced to perfection, falling to an 11-seed after an upset loss to Hofstra, 85-81, at home. Only #76 in Strength, the Cougars were favored in every game and a 30-1 finish—with only a loss to North Carolina—set them up for a strong seeding. But just one more loss and their #200 strength of schedule catches up to them. Now the team is in danger of missing out on the tournament altogether if they don't win the Colonial Athletic tournament. Their two toughest remaining games are this week: on the road vs. Drexel and Delaware. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
 45. Memphis                  17-5   24-7    Amer   56.9   -6.1   12   11
 46. Kent St.                 17-4   27-4    MAC    55.2  -32.9   12    7
 47. USC                      15-6   21-10   P12    53.5  +19.0   12p    
 48. Auburn                   16-5   20-11   SEC    51.8  -16.3   12p  10
 49. Mississippi St.          13-8   21-10   SEC    50.1  +22.3   12p    
 50. Penn St.                 14-7   18-13   B10    48.3   -8.1   12p  12
 51. Utah                     15-8   19-12   P12    48.1   +0.0        12p
 52. Southern Miss            19-4   27-4    SB     46.4   +6.9   13   13
 53. Seton Hall               13-9   18-13   BE     44.7   +8.6        
 54. Washington St.           10-13  16-15   P12    43.0   -4.8        
 55. Oregon                   13-9   18-13   P12    41.2   +3.5        
 56. Michigan St.             14-8   17-14   B10    39.5   -4.9        
 57. Virginia Tech            13-8   20-11   ACC    37.8   -5.0        
 58. Arizona St.              15-7   21-10   P12    36.1  -13.6        12p
 59. Florida                  12-9   18-13   SEC    34.4   +4.9        
 60. Clemson                  18-4   24-7    ACC    32.7  -13.5        
 61. Oklahoma St.             12-9   14-17   B12    31.0  -27.1        11
 73. Oklahoma                 12-9   14-17   B12    10.4   +2.6        

The bubble, plus Oklahoma: Kent State is another mid-Major that took a big fall. The Flashes were upset by lowly Northern Illinois (8-13); prior to that loss Kent State had lost only to 21-2 Charleston, 20-2 Houston, and 18-4 Gonzaga, keeping their liabilities in check. They drop from a 7-seed to a 12-seed and also look like they'll need to win the MAC tournament to get in the Big Dance. 

USC rode an upset of UCLA to an appearance as a play-in team this week; the Trojans also beat Arizona State, who falls out of the play-in spot themselves, as does Utah who lost to Oregon on Saturday, making it four Pac-12 teams just outside looking in. Mississippi State's upset of TCU not only broke their 5-game skid but they're back in the dance, for now. They join Auburn on the play-in line as a 12-seed.

Oklahoma State won their SEC challenge game against Mississippi handily but their projection fell from 15-16 to 14-17, getting farther away from .500 and dropping them out of their 11-seed perch. And while Oklahoma had the biggest win of the week, dominating Alabama start to finish for a 93-69 upset, it's like it never happened here: they bump up from a 7.8% chance to 10.4%. The problem is the Sooners' remaining schedule: every opponent is in the top 23 in Strength except OK State and Texas Tech, and the Sooners are only #48. Both Oklahoma teams will need several upsets in the Big Twelve to keep their records safely above .500. Then they'll need decent showings in the conference tournament.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
 71. Dayton                   14-8   22-9    A10    13.8   +4.4   13    
 72. Drake                    17-6   24-7    MVC    12.1   +6.4   13    
 75. Bradley                  15-8   23-8    MVC     6.9   -7.5        13
 77. VCU                      16-6   24-7    A10     5.1  -21.0        13
 81. Yale                     14-6   21-6    Ivy     4.6   +0.9   14   14
 83. Iona                     14-7   24-7    MAAC    4.4   -1.2   14   14
 86. UC Irvine                14-7   24-8    BW      4.0   -0.3   14   14
 97. Furman                   17-6   25-6    SC      2.6    0.0   14   14
100. Montana St.              15-8   23-8    BSky    2.3   +0.0   15   15
108. Youngstown St.           17-6   25-6    Horz    2.1   -0.2   15   15
113. Colgate                  16-7   24-7    Pat     2.0   +0.0   15   15
137. Northwestern St.         14-8   22-9    Slnd    1.3    0.0   15   16
141. Vermont                  12-10  20-10   AE      1.2    0.0   16    
151. Longwood                 15-8   22-9    BSth    1.0   -0.6   16   15
156. Grambling St.            13-7   23-7    SWAC    0.8   -0.1   16p  16p
158. UMass Lowell             17-6   23-8    AE      0.8   -0.7        16
160. North Carolina Central   10-10  17-11   MEAC    0.7   -0.6   16p  16p
181. SIU Edwardsville         14-9   21-10   OVC     0.2   -0.5   16p  16p 
290. Wagner                   11-8   15-12   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p  16p

Three new conference "champs": The Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and America East have new favorites. Dayton went 1-1 last week but it was enough as VCU was upset at home by St. Bonaventure, dropping the Rams a few spots below the Flyers. Drake leads Bradley by an even narrower margin after the Braves struggled to beat Illinois State (in overtime) and Illinois Chicago (by 7).

And Vermont has won four in a row while UMass Lowell lost twice last week, vs. Maine and New Hampshire on the road. The Catamounts are now comfortably ahead of the River Hawks in the America East.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/22)
164. Murray St.               12-10  16-14   MVC     0.6   +0.6        
179. Wofford                  13-10  19-12   SC      0.2   +0.2        
185. Buffalo                  10-11  16-15   MAC     0.1   +0.1        

Still hope? These teams emerged from almost-mathematical-zero chance to register on our radar somehow. From the bottom: Buffalo upset Ball State on the road, 91-65, a huge result that propped them back to a 1 in 1000 chance of Big Dance hopes, undiminished by their subsequent loss to Kent State. The future doesn't look good for the Bulls though as they're already under .500 and might not finish above it.

Wofford notched two upset wins in Southern Conference play: Chattanooga on the road and Samford at home. This allegedly gives the Terriers a 1 in 500 chance to qualify for an at-large bid. If they can beat Furman this Saturday then we can talk.

And biggest of all, Murray State suddenly has a huge 0.6% chance for an at-large bid in their future. How did they do it? They stuck close to Southern Illinois on the road, only losing by 4, then upset Missouri State at home, 74-71. This was enough to flip their projection from 14-16 to 16-14. Hey, at least it's above .500. The truth for all of these teams is that they're just putting off the inevitable 0.0% and they'll need to win their conference tournaments to get in. But I hate to tell a team they have no chance.

SEC/Big 12 Challenge: Oklahoma crushes Alabama 93-69, Missouri whacks Iowa State 78-61

Two big upsets early in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, one on each side as Oklahoma dominated Alabama start to finish and won 93-69, and Missouri took care of Iowa State. Which upset scored more "points" for their conference?

I'd have to say the Big 12 came out on top. While Missouri's win over a surging Iowa State was big, the Cyclones were only favored by a few points and arguably are an "average" Big Twelve team. Missouri is an average to slightly below average SEC team. On the other hand, Oklahoma might be the 9th place team out of 10 in the Big 12, so for them to beat the one of the top two SEC teams so convincingly is a much bigger deal.

What it really shows is how important home court can be in inter-conference play. It's possible for Missouri to beat Iowa State and Oklahoma to beat Alabama on the road, but by a combined 41 points? That only happens playing at home. Sometimes during conference play the familiarity of the teams and venues evens things up a bit, and home court advantage starts to dwindle (it's down to 3.19 points this year from 3.88 points a month ago). But inter-conference games like this tend to be decided more by who is playing at home.

Home court didn't help LSU, however as they lost the battle of the Losing Streaks to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders broke their 8-game losing streak in Big 12 play and extended the Tigers' streak to 8 with a 76-68 win in Baton Rouge. I think this should be considered the tiebreaker if the conferences end up tied in the Challenge.

Both Alabama and Iowa State are in the hunt for a 1-seed, and while these losses hurt them they can bounce back. Alabama might fall to a 2-seed in our next projection, while Iowa State was briefly a 1-seed and had already fallen to a 2-seed. No matter what, Alabama is still a strong 1-seed candidate while the Cyclones are among six Big 12 teams with a legitimate shot at a top seed after the dust settles from the regular season dogfight and conference tournament.

What about the winners? Missouri was among the First Four Out in the Dance Chance and this big win can only help boost them into the seedings. Oklahoma's odds were looking pretty slim lately (around 4.3%) and while a huge win like this is a huge thing, they're still just 12-9 and 8 of their remaining 10 foes are in the top 25 in Strength. They're still going to have a tough time finishing above .500 and will probably need a very strong conference tournament to get an at-large bid.

If they play like they did against Alabama, though, they could win the conference tournament and not need a bid.

Regardless of which conference comes out on top, the winners are the fans. It's a cliché but it's true, this is giving Saturday a March Madness feels to it. There should be three inter-conference weekends every year, with the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Big East, and Pac-12 involved in rotation matchups, and they shouldn't be pre-conference either. Having them during conference play breaks up the monotony of seeing the same typical matchups for months.

Latest NCAA projection: Iowa State(!) a 1-seed as Houston, Kansas drop

Once again, let's take a look at last week (Jan 15-22) and see how the Dance Chance odds changed:

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
  1. Purdue                   19-1   29-2    B10    98.7   +1.6    1    1
  2. Iowa St.                 14-4   24-6    B12    98.4   +4.6    1    3
  3. Alabama                  17-2   28-3    SEC    98.0   +2.0    1    1
  4. UCLA                     17-3   28-3    P12    97.6   +2.0    1    2

There are two new 1-seeds since last Sunday, and not what I expected from the Dance Chance algorithm but here we are. Purdue maintains the overall #1 seed—that part wasn't a surprise, nor was Alabama remaining on the 1-seed line; both won two conference games and are nearing "lock" status. But the replacements for the fallen 1-seeds were a bit shocking, especially Iowa State ending up at the #2 spot! The Cyclones trounced Texas 78-67 at home mid-week, but then lost to Oklahoma State 61-59, a game they were "supposed" to win. Yet their projection went from 23-7 to 24-6 as future road games vs. Kansas State and West Virginia now tilt their way. Those margins are razor-thin and could turn "back" next week, so stay tuned. Iowa State faces Kansas State at home on Tuesday, and better win that one if they want the road game to be in their favor.

The final 1-seed is UCLA, who lost to Arizona on Saturday after beating Arizona State earlier in the week. The Bruins moved to a 1-seed despite their projection falling to 28-3 which is interesting, but the former 1-seeds (Kansas & Houston) had bad enough losses that they "fell past" UCLA, and the Bruins have "better" losses than Tennessee so the Vols didn't pass them up. Both teams have lost to Arizona, while Tennessee has losses to Colorado and Kentucky, while UCLA lost to Illinois and Baylor.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
  5. Tennessee                16-3   28-3    SEC    97.3   +2.0    2    2
  6. Connecticut              16-5   26-5    BE     96.9   +2.0    2    2
  7. Houston                  18-2   29-2    Amer   96.5   +0.1    2    1
  8. Arizona                  17-3   27-4    P12    96.1   +4.6    2    4
  9. Kansas                   16-3   24-7    B12    95.8   -1.0    3    1
 10. Texas                    16-3   24-7    B12    95.4   +1.2    3    3
 11. TCU                      15-4   24-7    B12    95.0  +11.8    3    7
 12. Gonzaga                  17-4   26-5    WCC    94.7   +0.1    3    2

Houston's fall from a 1-seed was due to their 56-66 home loss to unheralded Temple. The Cougars have the #83 schedule in the country and will end up with about the #90 schedule, so each additional loss will hurt them a lot. There are few big names on their future slate so they can only move down; any upward movement comes courtesy of the teams above them losing in upset. But Houston might be in luck if you look at Kansas. The Jayhawks were the overall #1 seed a few weeks ago but a few close calls followed by losses to Kansas State and TCU have dumped them to a 3-seed. The overtime road loss to the Wildcats wasn't a bad thing, but the 83-60 home loss to TCU was a back-breaker for their 1-seed. It doesn't get easier as Kansas faces Baylor and then Kentucky in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge; both games are on the road. And speaking of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, the marquee game Saturday is 2-seed Tennessee vs. 3-seed Texas in Knoxville.

TCU's vault up three seeds was due solely to the big road win; in fact, they lost earlier in the week to West Virginia, as expected. Last week they projected to 19-12, now it's 24-7 as their Strength rating got a huge boost. Arizona, of course, beat UCLA in a minor upset and restored some of their luster. Once a 1-seed themselves, they're back up to a 2. All of this will depend heavily on conference tournaments of course.

Gonzaga's loss to Loyola Marymount at home was perhaps a bigger shocker than Kansas' or Houston's loss, as Gonzaga held the current home win streak at 76 and the Lions were not the team people expected to break it. The Zags drop a seed-line just when they seemed to be putting it all together. They have a week to regroup before facing St. Mary's (at home) in two Saturdays. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
 13. Indiana                  13-6   24-7    B10    94.3   +7.8    4    7
 14. Rutgers                  13-6   23-8    B10    93.9   +0.5    4    3
 15. Baylor                   14-5   22-9    B12    93.6   +0.5    4    3
 16. Virginia                 15-3   25-4    ACC    93.2   +0.5    4    4
 17. Florida Atlantic         19-1   30-1    CUSA   92.8   +2.7    5    5
 18. Kansas St.               17-2   22-9    B12    92.5   +0.5    5    4
 19. Marquette                16-5   24-7    BE     92.1   +1.2    5    5
 20. Charleston               21-1   30-1    CAA    91.7   +1.2    5    5

Indiana is the big mover here, up 3 seeds from a 7-seed after upsetting Illinois on the road and beating Michigan State. Their projection improved dramatically from 20-11 to 24-7, including the Purdue game (note that Purdue is projected 29-2; Indiana is the 2nd loss). Meanwhile Rutgers is coming back down to earth a bit; they lost to Michigan State 70-57 in Lansing. Baylor also falls a seed despite winning twice this week. Their 2-point win over Oklahoma wasn't strong enough to keep them at a 4-seed. The Bears face Arkansas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge Saturday after taking on Kansas Monday night.

Kansas State drops from a 4- to a 5-seed the same week they beat Kansas and Texas Tech to go 17-2. The Wildcats soared up to #5 in the AP poll but here they are the #6 team in the Big Twelve! The truth is that the Big Twelve is replete with great teams and all the game projections are very close. Quality and parity will do that to you. The Wildcats travel to Iowa State this coming week and then take on Florida in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
 21. Saint Mary's             18-4   26-5    WCC    91.4   +2.0    6    6
 22. North Carolina           14-6   23-8    ACC    91.0   +1.3    6    6
 23. Xavier                   16-4   23-8    BE     90.6   -1.7    6    4
 24. New Mexico               18-2   26-5    MWC    90.2   +1.3    6    6
 25. Creighton                11-8   22-9    BE     89.9  +16.3    7    9
 26. Kent St.                 16-3   28-3    MAC    88.1   -0.5    7    6
 27. Illinois                 13-6   20-11   B10    86.4   -4.8    7    5
 28. Boise St.                15-5   24-7    MWC    84.7   +6.3    7    8
 29. Ohio St.                 11-8   20-11   B10    83.1   +6.3    8    8
 30. Utah St.                 16-4   26-5    MWC    81.4   +9.4    8    9
 31. Duke                     14-5   22-9    ACC    79.7   -8.5    8    7
 32. Providence               15-5   23-8    BE     78.1   +2.9    8    9

Xavier drops back a couple of seeds after their stunning loss to DePaul broke an 11-game win streak; they have UConn next, on the road. In other Big East news, Creighton continues to recover from their early-season slump and has won 5 of their last 7; the Bluejays host Xavier on Saturday.

Illinois falls two seeds from a 5-seed to a 7-seed. The loss to Indiana was an upset and the 80-65 score hurt the Illini's Strength rating too. Next up is Ohio State, who holds at an 8-seed after a stunning loss to Nebraska put their losing streak at 5-games, before a big home win over Iowa seems to have righted the ship for now.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
 33. Nevada                   15-5   24-7    MWC    76.4   -3.6    9    8
 34. N.C. State               15-5   24-7    ACC    74.7  -10.2    9    7
 35. Miami FL                 15-4   22-8    ACC    73.1   -8.6    9    8
 36. Iowa                     12-7   18-13   B10    71.4   +1.1    9    9
 37. San Diego St.            15-4   22-8    MWC    69.7   +4.2   10   10
 38. Auburn                   16-3   22-9    SEC    68.1   +4.2   10   10
 39. Arkansas                 13-6   21-10   SEC    66.4   -2.3   10   10
 40. Oral Roberts             17-4   26-4    Sum    64.7   +2.5   10   11
 41. Memphis                  15-5   24-7    Amer   63.1  +17.3   11   12p
 42. West Virginia            11-8   16-15   B12    61.4   -5.7   11   10
 43. Kentucky                 13-6   20-11   SEC    59.7   -0.9   11   11
 44. Oklahoma St.             11-8   15-16   B12    58.1  +26.8   11    

NC State's loss to North Carolina was probably a bit worse than expected as the Wolfpack fall from a 7- to a 9-seed. Their 24-7 projection didn't change. It appears that the ACC was downgraded across the board this week, with teams' Dance Chance odds either declining or only rising a very tiny amount. Not sure what precipitated this but the conference isn't having its best year.

The Big Twelve is having a great year, as evidenced by Oklahoma State's appearance in the seedings. The Cowboys beat Iowa State the same week the Cyclones rise to a 1-seed, so that's a stellar win to have under your belt. It's going to take better than a 16-15 record though, unless they go on a conference tournament tear. The Cowboys host Mississippi in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge this coming Saturday, while Auburn travels to West Virginia.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
 45. Penn St.                 13-6   19-12   B10    56.4   +3.8   12   12p
 46. Northwestern             12-5   17-13   B10    54.7   +5.4   12p  12p
 47. Sam Houston St.          15-5   25-5    WAC    53.1   -4.4   12   11 
 48. Maryland                 12-7   19-12   B10    51.4   -7.6   12p  11 
 49. Arizona St.              15-5   22-9    P12    49.7   -1.2   12p  12p
 50. Utah                     14-7   19-12   P12    48.1  +24.9   12p     
 51. Washington St.            9-12  16-15   P12    47.8  +19.8        
 52. Clemson                  16-4   24-7    ACC    46.1   +1.9        
 53. Michigan St.             13-7   17-14   B10    44.4  +34.2        
 54. Virginia Tech            11-8   20-11   ACC    42.8   +0.2        
 55. Colorado                 12-9   17-14   P12    41.1  -13.1        12
 56. Southern Miss            17-4   26-5    SB     39.4  +32.4   13    
 57. Oregon                   11-9   18-13   P12    37.8  +17.9        
 58. Seton Hall               12-9   16-15   BE     36.1   +9.7        
 59. USC                      14-6   20-11   P12    34.4  +21.0        
 60. Pittsburgh               13-7   21-10   ACC    32.8  -23.0        12

Bubble time: Not a lot of changing, mostly re-arranging, for the Last Four In, but Utah takes the last spot away from Washington State by beating the Cougars last week. Utah and Arizona State are the last two teams in, and Washington State, Colorado, Oregon, and USC are still hopefuls. Probably two of the six will make it, and that might be determined by the Pac-12 tournament.

The Big Ten also has a lot of bubble teams, with Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland barely in, and Michigan State barely out. And the ACC has three teams in this region, all slightly underwater: Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh who drops from a 12-seed after a home loss to Florida State (see Back from the Dead).

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
 61. Marshall                 17-4   26-5    SB     31.1  -16.3        13
 64. VCU                      15-5   25-6    A10    26.1  +20.9   13    
 67. Liberty                  16-5   26-5    ASun   21.1   +6.0   13   13
 71. Bradley                  13-8   23-8    MVC    14.4  -24.9   13   13
 74. Dayton                   13-7   23-8    A10     9.4  -38.3        13
 80. Iona                     13-6   25-6    MAAC    5.5   -1.3   14   14
 89. UC Irvine                13-6   24-8    BW      4.2   -1.8   14   14
 93. Yale                     13-6   20-7    Ivy     3.7   -0.5   14   14
100. Furman                   15-6   25-6    SC      2.7   +0.0   14   15
115. Youngstown St.           15-6   24-7    Horz    2.3   -1.8   15   14
117. Montana St.              13-8   22-9    BSky    2.2   -1.0   15   15
129. Colgate                  14-7   24-7    Pat     1.9   -0.4   15   15
142. Longwood                 15-6   23-8    BSth    1.6   -0.5   15   16
144. UMass Lowell             17-4   26-5    AE      1.5   -0.2   16   16p
150. Northwestern St.         12-8   22-9    Slnd    1.4   +0.5   16   16p
152. North Carolina Central   10-8   19-9    MEAC    1.3   -0.6   16p  16
166. Grambling St.            11-7   23-7    SWAC    1.0   -0.3   16p  16p
177. SIU Edwardsville         14-7   23-8    OVC     0.7   -1.7   16p  15
269. Wagner                   11-7   16-11   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p    
309. Fairleigh Dickinson      12-10  17-14   NEC    <0.1    0.0        16p

The 1-bids: Marshall had been the Sun Belt favorite for a while but the Herd were leapfrogged by Southern Miss who surged up 32% after trouncing James Madison. It was partly Marshall's fault, too; they dropped 16% after needing overtime to beat lowly Arkansas State.

And VCU replaces Dayton as the Atlantic Ten favorite. The Rams have won 10 of their last 11 (including a win over the Flyers) while Dayton just lost to George Washington.

Not much else of interesting until Wagner reclaims the NorthEast Conference auto-bid. They did so by basically treading water while Fairleigh Dickinson shot themselves in the foot, losing twice over the weekend.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/15)
185. Florida St.               7-13   9-22   ACC     0.5   +0.5        
186. Weber St.                10-10  15-16   BSky    0.4   +0.4           
197. George Washington        10-9   15-16   A10     0.2   +0.2        

Back from the Dead: Three teams went from no-hope (<0.1%) to tiny-amount-of-hope this week. Florida State is the big story; the Seminoles beat Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, only their 2nd 2-game win streak this season. Not sure they really have a 1 in 200 chance to get an at-large bid but they at least have the schedule to make it happen if they somehow go on a miracle run.

Weber State really doesn't have that schedule in the Big Sky, so their purported 1 in 250 odds are probably too generous still. But they've earned their vacation out of the grave with back-to-back wins over Portland State and Sacramento State. 

And George Washington is at least still in single digits in the L column, so they might really have a 1 in 500 shot at a bid. They beat George Mason and Dayton last week and have a pretty easy run coming up, so they might actually be able to stay ahead of the ever-expanding cloud of "<0.1%" that rolls upward on the Dance Chance chart week by week. For a while, at least.

How many teams from each conference will make the Big Dance? The multi-bid leagues

Two months to go, how are the conferences looking in terms of the NCAA tournament? Let's look at how many teams each conference has right now according to the Dance Chance and what the odds say about Selection Sunday, starting with every conference expected to have multiple bids.

Big Ten     teams now: 9    selection Sunday: 7.5 (6-10)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  1. Purdue                   18-1   30-1    B10    97.9     1
 13. Rutgers                  13-6   22-9    B10    93.5     4
 17. Indiana                  12-6   23-8    B10    92.0     5
 25. Illinois                 13-6   20-11   B10    89.1     7
 32. Iowa                     12-6   19-11   B10    77.5     8
 36. Ohio St.                 10-8   19-12   B10    70.9     9
 45. Penn St.                 12-6   19-12   B10    56.1    12
 47. Northwestern             12-5   18-12   B10    52.8    12p
 48. Maryland                 12-6   19-12   B10    51.2    12p
 51. Michigan St.             13-6   17-14   B10    47.6     
 71. Wisconsin                12-5   15-15   B10    14.8     
 79. Michigan                 10-8   14-17   B10     6.1     
 98. Nebraska                 10-9   12-19   B10     3.2     
215. Minnesota                 7-10   7-23   B10    <0.1     

Right now the Big Ten has 9 teams in the Dance and the First team out, too! Very close to 10 teams but that will probably be 7 or 8 come Selection Sunday. Purdue is the overall #1 right now but won't be unless they win the Big Ten tournament too. Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois look pretty solid and Iowa and Ohio State are good bets. Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland are bubble teams, as is Michigan State—who just climbed back into the picture with a win at Rutgers. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska are longer shots, while Minnesota is almost certainly out of luck. The Big Ten should end up with 8 teams unless there are a lot of conference tournament upsets that reduce available spots. And having 10 teams is still solidly in play.

Big Twelve     teams now: 7    selection Sunday: 7 (7-9)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  2. Kansas                   16-2   26-5    B12    97.6     1
  6. Iowa St.                 14-3   24-6    B12    96.1     2
  9. Texas                    15-3   24-7    B12    95.0     3
 11. Baylor                   13-5   22-9    B12    94.2     3
 14. Kansas St.               16-2   22-9    B12    93.1     4
 28. TCU                      14-4   20-11   B12    84.0     7
 30. West Virginia            11-7   18-13   B12    80.7     8
 55. Oklahoma St.             10-8   14-17   B12    41.0     
 60. Texas Tech               10-8   15-16   B12    32.8     
 74. Oklahoma                 11-7   13-18   B12     9.8     

The toughest conference is going to have a tough time fitting all the deserving teams in the Dance. Five teams are already near locks: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State will be in, in almost any order among the five. TCU and West Virginia are strong, too. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma look like victims of conference parity, but it's possible that one (or two) of them get in, too. 

ACC     teams now: 6    selection Sunday: 5.5 (5-8)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 12. Virginia                 14-3   25-4    ACC    93.9     3
 22. North Carolina           13-6   23-8    ACC    90.2     6
 31. Duke                     13-5   22-9    ACC    79.1     8
 33. N.C. State               15-4   24-7    ACC    75.8     9
 35. Miami FL                 15-3   22-8    ACC    72.5     9
 43. Pittsburgh               13-6   22-9    ACC    59.4    11
 57. Clemson                  15-4   24-7    ACC    37.7     
 59. Virginia Tech            11-7   20-11   ACC    34.5     
 85. Wake Forest              14-5   18-13   ACC     5.2     
104. Syracuse                 12-7   17-14   ACC     2.8     
159. Georgia Tech              8-10  13-18   ACC     1.3     
194. Notre Dame                9-10  11-20   ACC     0.4     
217. Florida St.               6-13   8-23   ACC    <0.1     
231. Boston College            8-11   9-22   ACC    <0.1     
347. Louisville                2-17   2-29   ACC    <0.1     

The ACC isn't the 3rd strongest conference but might have the 3rd-most picks. Six teams are "in" right now and they'll most likely get 5 or 6. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke look pretty automatic, and NC State and Miami are positioned well right now. If they get a 6th team Pittsburgh is the leading candidate at the moment, though Clemson and Wake Forest will fight them. And it's possible they all get in, just not likely since the conference isn't as hightly-touted this year. Wake Forest and Syracuse still have a chance but might barely finish above .500, and Georgia Tech and Notre Dame are already under .500 and therefore very long-shots at this point. Florida State and Boston College are essentially at zero chance, and Louisville is very close to being mathematically eliminated, if there were such a thing.

Big East     teams now: 6    selection Sunday: 5 (5-7)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  8. Connecticut              15-5   26-5    BE     95.4     2
 16. Marquette                15-5   24-7    BE     92.4     4
 21. Xavier                   15-4   23-8    BE     90.6     6
 24. Creighton                11-8   22-9    BE     89.4     6
 34. Providence               14-5   23-8    BE     74.2     9
 50. Seton Hall               12-8   17-14   BE     47.9    12p
 66. St. John's               13-6   18-13   BE     23.0     
 90. Butler                   11-9   14-17   BE      4.4     
124. Villanova                 9-10  11-20   BE      2.2     
173. DePaul                    9-10  10-21   BE      1.0     
268. Georgetown                5-14   5-26   BE     <0.1     

The Big East is another smaller conference like the Big Twelve but not nearly as strong. Still, it's clearly a major conference (there was some doubt of that when the "new" Big East was created in 2013). UConn, Marquette, and Xavier are near locks, while Creighton even at 11-8 is playing well enough to be solidly in the mix. Providence is above the bubble, and Seton Hall is right on the bubble. Probably one of those won't make it, but it's possible they all do and that St. John's or another team makes it 7 teams, but that's not too likely: Butler has 9 losses already and Villanova and DePaul 10 apiece, and Georgetown is a lost cause. 

SEC     teams now: 5    selection Sunday: 5 (2-8)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  5. Alabama                  16-2   28-3    SEC    96.5     2
  7. Tennessee                15-3   28-3    SEC    95.7     2
 40. Auburn                   15-3   22-9    SEC    64.3    10
 41. Arkansas                 12-6   21-10   SEC    62.7    11
 42. Kentucky                 12-6   20-11   SEC    61.0    11
 56. Missouri                 14-4   22-9    SEC    39.4     
 61. Mississippi St.          12-6   21-10   SEC    31.2     
 68. Florida                  10-8   17-14   SEC    19.7     
 80. Texas A&M                13-5   17-14   SEC     5.9     
106. Georgia                  13-5   18-13   SEC     2.7     
109. Vanderbilt                9-9   12-19   SEC     2.6     
126. Mississippi               9-9   11-20   SEC     2.2     
148. LSU                      12-6   13-18   SEC     1.6     
259. South Carolina            8-10   8-23   SEC    <0.1

The SEC has two of the top teams in the nation—Alabama and Tennessee—and then it's a long drop to the next three bubble teams. Auburn, Arkansas, and now a resurgent Kentucky have a good chance, while Missouri, Mississippi State, and Florida are on the outside looking in. The league might get 8 teams—or maybe just two. Almost certainly it will be somewhere in-between, with 5 the most likely result. Despite being 13-5 right now, Texas A&M and Georgia will have to fight to finish above .500; Vanderbilt and Mississippi are .500 right now and it only gets harder; LSU is going to have a tough time ahead of them, but still has a small (1.6%) chance to prove us wrong and make the Dance. And South Carolina is out of the picture for all intents and purposes.

Mtn West     teams now: 5    selection Sunday: 4 (3-5)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 23. New Mexico               17-2   26-5    MWC    89.8     6
 27. Utah St.                 15-4   26-5    MWC    85.7     7
 29. Boise St.                15-4   24-7    MWC    82.4     8
 37. Nevada                   15-5   23-8    MWC    69.2    10
 38. San Diego St.            14-4   22-8    MWC    67.6    10
 73. UNLV                     12-6   19-11   MWC    11.5     
 99. Colorado St.             10-10  16-15   MWC     3.0     
142. San Jose St.             12-7   14-17   MWC     1.8     
171. Air Force                12-7   14-17   MWC     1.0     
196. Fresno St.                6-11   8-22   MWC     0.4     
205. Wyoming                   5-13   7-23   MWC     0.1

The Mountain West is really a major conference this year, and should have at least three teams in the Dance. New Mexico, Utah State, and Boise State are looking very good, and with Nevada running neck-and-neck with San Diego State the conference currently has five in our seeding. The Aztecs have a name and "recency" advantage over the Wolf Pack if only four are picked as we expect. UNLV has looked strong at times but the Rebels started 1-5 in conference play, losing three games at home vs. the top five Mtn. West teams. Every other team still has hope but the future doesn't look bright for the bottom half of the conference when the top half is so strong.

Pac-12     teams now: 3    selection Sunday: 4 (2-7)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  4. UCLA                     17-2   29-2    P12    96.8     1
 15. Arizona                  16-3   26-5    P12    92.8     4
 44. Arizona St.              15-4   23-8    P12    57.7    11
 52. Colorado                 11-9   17-14   P12    46.0     
 58. Oregon                   11-8   19-12   P12    36.1     
 62. Utah                     13-7   19-12   P12    29.5     
 64. Washington St.            9-11  16-15   P12    26.3     
 72. USC                      13-6   19-12   P12    13.1     
101. Washington               12-8   14-17   P12     2.8     
141. Stanford                  6-12  10-21   P12     1.8     
241. Oregon St.                7-12   8-23   P12    <0.1     
247. California                3-16   4-27   P12    <0.1

The Pac-12 is still one of the six best conferences but is plagued by parity and inconsistency. Even Arizona, one of the virtual "locks" along with 1-seed UCLA, has three conference losses. Beyond them nothing is guaranteed; Arizona State is in but on the bubble, while Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington State will fight it out to fill the 4 spots that the Pac-12 should ultimately get. USC isn't out of it at 13-6, but Washington and Stanford aren't looking good and Oregon State and California are stuck at the bottom of the barrel. It's possible for the Pac-12 to get 6 or 7 teams, but for that to happen the no-hopers have to stop upsetting the hopeful, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen. And worst case the Pac-12 is a 2-bid league, despite being probably the 5th best conference.

WCC     teams now: 2    selection Sunday: 2 (2)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 10. Gonzaga                  16-4   26-5    WCC    94.6     3
 18. Saint Mary's             17-4   26-5    WCC    91.7     5
 81. Loyola Marymount         14-7   19-11   WCC     5.8     
 84. Santa Clara              16-5   22-9    WCC     5.3     
 89. BYU                      14-8   19-12   WCC     4.6     
111. San Francisco            13-9   19-12   WCC     2.6     
185. Pepperdine                7-13  10-20   WCC     0.7     
204. Portland                 10-11  12-19   WCC     0.2     
224. San Diego                 9-12  10-20   WCC    <0.1     
233. Pacific                  10-11  12-19   WCC    <0.1

The West Coast conference always has Gonzaga. And often another team, usually St. Mary's. That's the case this year, with both teams pretty solid picks. While it's possible another candidate emerges, no other team is very close to a bid right now. It looks like the WCC will have two bids this year, and we already know who they are.

American     teams now: 2    selection Sunday: 2 (1-3)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  3. Houston                  18-1   30-1    Amer   97.2     1
 49. Memphis                  14-5   23-8    Amer   49.5    12p
 65. UCF                      13-5   22-8    Amer   24.6     
 78. Cincinnati               14-6   21-10   Amer    6.2     
 95. Tulane                   12-6   20-9    Amer    3.6     
136. Temple                   11-9   14-17   Amer    1.9     
139. Wichita St.               9-9   15-15   Amer    1.9     
198. SMU                       7-12  10-21   Amer    0.3     
199. South Florida             8-11  12-19   Amer    0.3     
229. East Carolina            10-10  13-18   Amer   <0.1     
329. Tulsa                     4-13   4-25   Amer   <0.1

Houston is going to get a bid. As far as at-large bids go, Memphis is right on the bubble for one right now, and UCF could make a run. Probably only one of those two makes it to join Houston. The best chance for a 3rd team is for the Cougars to get upset in the conference tournament.

What is wrong with UConn, Ohio State, Arkansas, and LSU?

Four prominent teams have hit the skids lately. The biggest case is Connecticut, who has lost 5 of their last 6 games. So has Arkansas. Meanwhile Ohio State and LSU have lost 5 in a row. These teams started the season a combined 47-5!

The pattern here seems to be: a team with a long win streak or a lot of success inevitably loses a game or two, usually on the road to good teams. This is normal, but it somehow plays on the team's emotions, and eventually they lose a game to a bad team, maybe even at home, making it very clear that something is actually wrong. That's when the trouble takes root.

Which of these teams are really in trouble? Is it just due to schedule or starting the conference season? Let's look at each one and see where and why they went wrong, and what they look like going forward.

• Connecticut (15-5). Start: 14-0; Recent: 0-5
  Just a few weeks ago they were the overall top seed in our Dance Chance seeding and #1 in the Strength power rating. Now they're a 2-seed and falling, and out of the top 5 in Pomeroy. This one is the biggest puzzle since UConn had its success with a very tough schedule, beating Alabama 82-67 and Iowa State 71-53 in the Phil Knight Invitational.
  
  Fairly narrow home wins over Georgetown and Villanova put them at 14-0 but were also their first signs of not being dominant. The Huskies first losses followed, to Xavier and Providence, both on the road. They rebounded with a solid home win over Creighton and it looked like nothing was amiss. They fell to Marquette but again, that loss was to a good team and on the road. The St. John's loss was the kicked—the Red Storm aren't very good, and they beat UConn in Storrs, and by 11 points. And last night UConn blew a 14-point lead at Seton Hall and lost, 67-66.
  
  So it appears something is wrong with the Huskies. They went from being dominant against a very tough schedule to being a middling Big East team practically overnight. The home loss to St. John's was telling—the team just doesn't have the drive it had in the pre-season. Having reached the top, they lost their hunger to prove they were a great team, and currently they aren't.
  
  Going forward: This one's a mystery. They were the best team in the country and while they could come back from their recent setbacks, it doesn't bode well for March. And a complete collapse isn't out of the question, as it has happened to teams like this before. Over the last 6 games they're playing like the #62 team in the country. UConn plays Butler at home next and they need to win that or their season is in jeopardy. A follow-up win over Xavier (also at home) would show they're still one of the top Big East teams. If they win those, they have a break with DePaul and Georgetown and would have a 4-game win streak and maybe they can put this bad spell in the past. But lose either of those two and their problems are back full force.
  
  
• Arkansas (12-6) Start: 11-1; Recent: 1-5
  The Razorbacks have been as high as a 4-seed in our estimation but have fallen to a 10-seed and after last night's loss to Missouri might be headed lower. They have wins over San Diego State, Oklahoma, and Bradley but problems started with the SEC season. They fell to LSU, and after a home win over Missouri they lost to Auburn and Alabama back-to-back. The bad loss was at Vanderbilt, 97-84. 
  
  All of this has dropped them from #9 in Pomeroy to their current #22. But in Strength over the last 6 games they're playing like the #108 team in the nation. So while some of the problem is tougher schedule, they've clearly played worse basketball lately.
  
  Going forward: Arkansas never looked like an elite team, so the losses to Auburn and Alabama (at home) weren't upsets. And 4 of the 5 losses were on the road. But losing streaks tend to make a team doubt itself, and Arkansas didn't have much room for that against a tough SEC schedule. They need to get a win on Saturday at home vs. Mississippi and another vs. LSU three days later; a two-game win streak would set them back to playing like an above-average SEC team rather than a below-average one.
  
  
• Ohio State (10-8) Start: 10-3; Recent: 0-5
  The Buckeyes were a surging Big Ten team and the wheels fell off right then. Ohio State was 10-3 with losses only to San Diego State, Duke, and North Carolina (in overtime) and started the Big Ten season 2-0. At that point (January 1) they were #6 in Strength, best in the Big Ten, and had jumped to a 3-seed favored to be 26-5 game-by-game.
  
  They hosted Purdue and lost by 2 points which is not a bad showing (and moved them from #11 to #9 in Pomeroy). They subsequently lost to Maryland on the road, again not a terrible performance, but when they fell to Minnesota 70-67 at home, that was the signpost of their decline. The Gophers were (and are) the worst team in the Big Ten by quite a bit. The Buckeyes played well at Rutgers and nearly beat the Scarlet Knights, falling in overtime, but followed that with a loss at Nebraska.
  
  Ohio State's non-conference schedule was loaded with cupcake teams, and they lost to the best three teams they faced outside the Big Ten. So despite how high they ranked, they hadn't—and haven't—shown the ability to beat a top team. In that respect their skid isn't surprising as the Big Ten is a tough conference, but they've played the two worst teams in the conference and lost to them. That means something else is wrong; they aren't handling adversity well. They're #79 over the last 5 games in Strength.
  
  Going forward: The Buckeyes host Iowa, another up-and-down team that is currently getting a rest due to Northwestern's Covid issues. That game will tell us a lot about where the team is headed, and after that they travel to Illinois and Indiana. They have a pretty tough road ahead compared to the other slumping teams. If they go 3-0 it will mean a lot, but they could just as easily (or more likely) go 0-3 even if they play well.
  
  
• LSU (12-6) Start: 12-1 Recent: 0-5
  The Tigers were a surprising 11-1 team in late December when they hosted Arkansas, and even more surprisingly they won that game to start 12-1. Since their pre-conference schedule was so weak (10 of 12 teams ranked worst than #100 in Pomeroy) the Tigers weren't highly thought of in the polls or power ratings, while Arkansas was. But they Tigers had only lost to Kansas State so there was a chance that they were going to be for real.
  
  They started 2023 with a loss at Kentucky and Texas A&M; followed by a home loss to Florida, a road loss to Alabama, and another home loss—67-49—to Auburn last night. None of those are bad teams but many of them—Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida—aren't great this year. And while losing to Alabama this year is nothing to be ashamed of, a 106-66 loss is always something to be ashamed of.
  
  Going forward: The truth is that LSU just isn't very good. They weren't good at 12-1, despite the Arkansas win, and at 12-6 their record is more representative of their level. On January 1—after the Arkansas win—the Tigers were just #105 in Strength. Now at 12-6 they've slipped to #127. So I actually expect this skid to continue, and to turn into what will look like a "collapse". But in this case it's not a collapse, it will just be LSU playing as they should. Attempting to avert that, they have a very tough challenge up next: Tennessee at home. Looking wounded, maybe they can ambush the Vols and upset them? Even then, they'll have a lot more to prove. Look for LSU to finish around .500 this season and hope for an NIT bid.

Jan 9-15 recap: Kentucky is back in; Houston, Alabama join 1-seeds

Two new 1-seeds after a week that included a record-breaking number of upsets on Saturday. Here's a rundown of the latest Dance Chance March Madness tracker

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
  1. Purdue                   16-1   30-1    B10    97.1   +2.1    1    1
  2. Kansas                   16-1   27-4    B12    96.8   +1.3    1    1
  3. Houston                  17-1   30-1    Amer   96.4   +2.5    1    2
  4. Alabama                  15-2   28-3    SEC    96.0   +2.5    1    2

Purdue takes over as the top 1-seed, but it's more due to Kansas slipping a bit. The Jayhawks barely held on to home wins over Oklahoma, where they were down 10 with 5 minutes left, and Iowa State whom they beat 62-60. Their projection slipped slightly to 27-4, enough to drop them to #2. Moving in this week are Houston and Alabama. The Cougars are starting to have a real chance to go undefeated in the American Athletic, and Alabama is the only team to beat them. The Tide beat Arkansas and LSU last week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
  5. UCLA                     16-2   29-2    P12    95.6   +2.5    2    2
  6. Tennessee                14-3   28-3    SEC    95.3   +0.6    2    1
  7. Connecticut              15-4   27-4    BE     94.9   +0.6    2    1
  8. Gonzaga                  16-3   27-4    WCC    94.5   +2.1    2    3
  9. Texas                    15-2   25-6    B12    94.2   +2.8    3    3
 10. Iowa St.                 13-3   23-7    B12    93.8   +6.2    3    6
 11. Rutgers                  13-5   24-7    B10    93.4   +1.4    3    3
 12. Baylor                   12-5   22-9    B12    93.1   +5.8    3    6

Tennessee and UConn are the former 1-seeds, now 2-seeds; both were upset at home over the weekend. For Tennessee it looks like more of a temporary setback whereas the Huskies have now lost 4 of their last 5 games, including twice last week. They play Seton Hall on the road and Butler at home this week. Gonzaga moves up to a 2-seed after crushing Portland by 40, and edging BYU on the road by a point.

The 3-line is filled with three Big Twelve teams; Iowa State and Baylor make the jump from the 6-line. The Cyclones crushed Texas Tech 84-50, then nearly beat Kansas in Lawrence as mentioned above. The Bears broke a 3-game losing streak by beating West Virginia on the road and Oklahoma State 74-58 at home.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 13. Virginia                 13-3   25-4    ACC    92.7   +3.9    4    5
 14. Xavier                   15-3   25-6    BE     92.3   +2.8    4    5
 15. Kansas St.               15-2   21-10   B12    92.0   +1.7    4    4
 16. Arizona                  15-3   26-5    P12    91.6   -1.2    4    2
 17. Illinois                 12-5   22-9    B10    91.2  +20.4    5    9
 18. Marquette                14-5   24-7    BE     90.8  +12.2    5    8
 19. Charleston               18-1   30-1    CAA    90.5   -0.5    5    4
 20. Florida Atlantic         16-1   29-2    CUSA   90.1   -1.6    5    3

Arizona dropped another 2 seeds after a bad loss (87-68) to Oregon. Just from that loss the Wildcats fell from #10 to #20 in Pomeroy and from #7 to #12 in the Strength power rating (the difference is mostly due to Pomeroy weighing recent games). Virginia takes over as the top team in the ACC but is still just a 4-seed (the conference tournament champ will be at least a 3-seed though). Up from a 5-seed, the Cavs beat North Carolina and Florida State last week, while Xavier moved up the same amount after topping both Creighton and Marquette at home.

Speaking of Marquette, the lost didn't hurt them—it was expected—and the Golden Eagles also beat UConn 82-76 earlier in the week, lifting them from an 8-seed to a 5-seed. Also moving up big is Illinois who jumps from a 9-seed to a 5 after beating Nebraska by 26 and Michigan State 75-66, ending the Spartans' 7-game win streak. Two mid-Majors round out the 5-line, both down a seed or two as they fight their conferences' weakness. Charleston still looks to go 30-1 but the Colonial Athletic got downgraded a bit so even going 18-0 there might only get them a 5-seed. Florida Atlantic is a much better team but is no longer favored in every future game in the C-USA, dropping them from the 3-line. The two have the longest winning streaks in the nation right now at 17 and 15 as of Sunday. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 21. North Carolina           12-6   23-8    ACC    89.7   +0.6    6    5
 22. Saint Mary's             16-4   26-5    WCC    89.4   +1.0    6    5
 23. New Mexico               16-2   26-5    MWC    89.0  +12.0    6    8
 24. Kent St.                 14-3   28-3    MAC    88.6   +1.7    6    6
 25. Duke                     13-5   22-9    ACC    88.3   -1.6    7    4
 26. Indiana                  11-6   20-11   B10    86.5  +11.0    7    8
 27. N.C. State               14-4   24-7    ACC    84.9   -1.6    7    7
 28. TCU                      14-3   19-12   B12    83.3  +21.9    7   11
 29. Miami FL                 14-3   22-8    ACC    81.7  +23.4    8   11
 30. Nevada                   15-4   24-7    MWC    80.0   +6.1    8    9
 31. Boise St.                14-4   24-7    MWC    78.4   +9.2    8    9
 32. Ohio St.                 10-7   20-11   B10    76.8  -13.8    8    4

New Mexico is tops right now in the ever-evolving Mountain West, after beating San Diego State last week. They also beat Summit League power Oral Roberts in a game scheduled just 2 weeks in advance, so they got a bonus on our projection (which didn't have the game listed). The Lobos move up to a 6-seed, while Duke moves the other way, down three to a 7-seed after falling to Clemson for their 3rd ACC loss. 

TCU and Miami jump up from 11-seeds to the lowest 7-seed and top 8-seed respectively despite both going 1-1 last week. The Horned Frogs narrowly lost to Texas on the road (79-75) and got a very valuable win over Kansas State, 82-68, ending the Wildcats' 9-game win streak. The Hurricanes beat Boston College easily at home 88-72 then almost upset NC State on the road, taking the Wolfpack into overtime. NC State's NCAA odds slipped a bit for the close call but they held their 7-seed.

Ohio State slipped 4 seeds to an 8-seed after losing twice last week to Minnesota at home (a huge upset) and Rutgers on the road (a very close overtime loss). The Buckeyes have now lost 4 in a row but all four were within 7 points; only the Minnesota home loss is grounds for concern, though losing the heartbreaker to the Scarlet Knights must hurt. They'll try to rebound against Nebraska in Lincoln on Wednesday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 33. Providence               14-4   23-8    BE     75.2  +15.4    9   11
 34. Creighton                10-8   21-10   BE     73.6   -6.6    9    8
 35. Utah St.                 14-4   26-5    MWC    72.0   -9.8    9    7
 36. Iowa                     12-6   20-11   B10    70.3   +7.4    9   10
 37. Arkansas                 12-5   22-9    SEC    68.7  -14.5   10    7
 38. West Virginia            10-7   17-14   B12    67.1  -17.7   10    7
 39. San Diego St.            13-4   22-8    MWC    65.5  -22.5   10    6
 40. Auburn                   14-3   22-9    SEC    63.9  +10.3   10   12

Providence makes five Big East teams in the top 9 seeds as they move up from an 11. The Friars actually lost to fellow 9-seed Creighton on Saturday, their only game of the week, but the close road loss (73-67) was enough to project for them to win the rematch at home, making them 23-8 for the year. Interesting. Utah State, once the Mountain West front-runner, falls to a 9-seed following the surge of 8-seeds Nevada and Boise State, which makes the Aggies schedule tougher going forward. They lost to the Broncos two weeks ago and to the Wolf Pack last week, 85-70, in Reno.

The 10-line is mostly full of losers this week, including San Diego State who falls from a 6-seed to a 10-seed. Another Mountain West team vexed by the growing list of good teams in the league, the Aztecs beat Nevada at home as expected but fell to New Mexico. At the beginning of the year I expected them to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but now there are five Mountain West teams from #31 to #40 in Strength—with SDSU at #40.

Two other 10-seeds drop a lot. Arkansas lost twice, to Alabama and then Vanderbilt, the latter being more destructive to their projection. West Virginia still ranks #20 in Strength but they've lost 5 in a row now including twice last week, to Baylor and Oklahoma. The Big Twelve is clearly the toughest conference top to bottom this year.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 41. Oral Roberts             15-4   26-4    Sum    62.3  -10.1   11    9
 42. Kentucky                 11-6   20-11   SEC    60.7  +38.7   11     
 43. Maryland                 11-6   20-11   B10    59.0  +13.6   11     
 44. Sam Houston St.          13-5   25-5    WAC    57.4   -8.7   11   10
 45. Pittsburgh               12-6   22-9    ACC    55.8  +13.5   12   
 46. Colorado                 11-8   18-13   P12    54.2  -13.5   12   10
 47. Penn St.                 12-5   19-12   B10    52.6  +44.9   12p   
 48. Arizona St.              15-3   23-8    P12    51.0   -1.1   12p  12p
 49. Northwestern             12-5   19-12   B10    49.3  +10.2   12p   
 50. Dayton                   12-6   25-6    A10    47.7   -2.7   13   12
 51. Marshall                 15-4   26-5    SB     47.4  +14.5   13   13
 52. Memphis                  13-5   23-8    Amer   45.8  +16.0   12p     

The big news this week is Kentucky as the Wildcats are back in the seedings after beating Tennessee. Last week they had about a 22% chance to make the tournament, and that dropped to around 7% after a woeful loss to South Carolina at home. So what did they do but turn around and beat the hottest team in the country, Tennessee, on their own home court, 63-56. They're still basically a bubble team but having the Tennessee win on their résumé helps a lot.

Maryland and Pittsburgh made smaller jumps into the bubble range, with the Terps riding an upset of Ohio State to offset a road loss to Iowa, while the Panthers fell to Duke but beat Georgia Tech 71-60 on the road. Penn State's leap was bigger as the Lions were in the single digits prior to beating Indiana 85-66.

Another Big Ten team, Northwestern, edged into a 12-seed play-in spot despite losing twice last week! The Wildcats fell to Rutgers at home by 3 and to Michigan on the road by 7, but it appears that last week's win over Illinois continued to pay dividends as the Illinois moved up this week. Memphis is the last team in despite a mixed bag last week, losing to UCF in double overtime and beating Temple by 2 points, both on the road.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 53. Clemson                  15-3   24-7    ACC    44.2  +23.8      
 54. Virginia Tech            11-6   20-11   ACC    42.6  -12.6        12
 55. UAB                      13-5   25-6    CUSA   40.9  +12.7      
 56. Bradley                  12-7   24-7    MVC    39.3  +14.2   13   13
 57. North Texas              14-4   25-6    CUSA   37.7   +1.7      
 58. Missouri                 13-4   21-10   SEC    36.1   +1.6      
 59. Mississippi St.          12-5   21-10   SEC    34.5   -9.4      
 60. Texas Tech               10-7   15-16   B12    32.9  -14.5        13p
 61. Oklahoma St.              9-8   14-17   B12    31.2  -17.6        12p
 62. Oklahoma                 11-6   15-16   B12    29.6  +18.6      
 63. Washington St.            9-10  16-15   P12    28.0  -28.7        11
 64. Seton Hall               11-8   15-16   BE     26.4   +7.6      
 65. St. John's               13-6   18-13   BE     24.8  +22.0      
 66. Utah                     12-7   19-12   P12    23.2  -23.8        13p
 ...
 79. UNLV                     12-5   18-12   MWC     6.5  -58.0        10

Below the bubble extravaganza: These teams conveniently sorted themselves by conference this week:

• ACC: Clemson and Virginia Tech are the first two teams out. The conference has 6 teams in our seedings this week and very nearly two more. The Tigers beat Duke and also, of course Louisville. The Hokies lost to Syracuse and fell from a 12-seed but they're still in the hunt.
• C-USA: Conference USA has just one team (Florida Atlantic) but two hopefuls in UAB and North Texas. The Blazers lost to Western Kentucky by 2 last Wednesday but rebounded by beating Louisiana Tech on the road. The Mean Green also beat Louisiana Tech and lost to Florida Atlantic but only by 4 points on the road, and they pretty much tread water as a result.
• SEC: Missouri lost twice last week, to Texas A&M and Florida but both were road losses and their prior wins over Kentucky and Illinois helped keep them stable no doubt. Mississippi State also dropped two road games, to Georgia and Auburn, and though they lost ground (and have lost 5 of their last 6) they have a chance to turn things around. There are currently 5 SEC teams in the seeding.
• Big Twelve: Every Big Twelve team is seeded or very close. Seven teams are 10-seeds or better and the other three—Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma—are trying to finish above .500 so they've got a chance at an at-large. Texas Tech has now lost 5 in a row, dropping road games to Iowa State and Texas last week, and Oklahoma State has lost 4 of 5 including road losses to Kansas State and Baylor recently. Oklahoma had a better week but not by much; the Sooners nearly beat Kansas on the road, and edged West Virginia 77-76 at home to avoid going 0-2 as well.
• Pac-12: Washington State, still the best 10-loss team in the country, drops from an 11-seed due to their 1-point close call at home vs. Stanford, and also their Arizona upset from 2 weeks ago cooling off a bit. Utah also falls off the Last Four In as the Utes lost to both UCLA and USC on the road. The Pac-12 has 4 teams seeded.
• Big East: The Big East has 5 teams seeded and these two are trying to hold in the lower bubble. Seton Hall had an easy week with Georgetown and DePaul but beat both on the road, and St. John's got a huge win at Connecticut that revived the Red Storm's fortunes, at least for the time being.

I've also included UNLV as the Rebels take a huge fall from a 10-seed down to 6.5% odds. The Rebels lost to Boise State by 18 at home and then to Colorado State in overtime, also at home. They're the odd man out in the Mountain West now as the conference boasts 5 seeded teams.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 71. Liberty                  14-5   26-5    ASun   15.1   -2.2   13   14
 77. Iona                     12-6   25-6    MAAC    6.8  -30.8   14   13
 82. UC Irvine                12-5   27-5    BW      6.0   -6.6   14   14
 93. Yale                     11-6   20-7    Ivy     4.2   -1.5   14   14
 94. Youngstown St.           14-5   26-5    Horz    4.0   -0.1   14   14
 99. Montana St.              12-7   23-8    BSky    3.2   -0.8   15   15
116. Furman                   13-6   22-9    SC      2.6   -0.4   15   15
126. SIU Edwardsville         14-5   26-5    OVC     2.4   -0.4   15   16
127. Colgate                  12-7   24-7    Pat     2.4   -0.4   15   15
136. Longwood                 13-6   23-8    BSth    2.1   -0.8   16   15
144. North Carolina Central    9-8   20-8    MEAC    1.9   -0.7   16   16
151. UMass Lowell             15-4   24-7    AE      1.7   -0.5   16p  16p
168. Grambling St.            10-7   23-7    SWAC    1.3   -0.9   16p  16p
185. Northwestern St.         10-8   21-10   Slnd    0.9   -0.7   16p   
188. Texas A&M Corpus Chris   11-7   23-8    Slnd    0.8   -0.9        16p
285. Fairleigh Dickinson      11-8   19-12   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p  16p

One-bids: Almost nothing new here. Northwestern State slips ahead of Texas A&M Corpus Christi after both went 1-1 this week, and it's still neck-and-neck in the Southland. Yale lost control of the Ivy League mid-week to Princeton after falling to Cornell but the Tigers lost to Brown on Saturday and gave the lead back to the Bulldogs.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
201. DePaul                    8-10   9-22   BE      0.4   +0.4      
207. Minnesota                 7-8    7-23   B10     0.3   +0.3      
215. Wright St.               11-8   18-13   Horz    0.1   +0.1      

Back from the grave: I had so much fun doing this last week that I'm making it a normal feature. As the number of teams at "near-zero" increases these teams will have to be better and better to stay ahead of the avalanche.

• This week DePaul is the top escape artist, with a respectable 8-10 record and now a 0.4% Dance odds. The Blue Demons secret was an upset win over Villanova, though they lost to Seton Hall at home four days later. They look to have only 1 more win left in them so their stay above the <0.1 mark may be short-lived.
• Minnesota is the best story as the Gophers beat Ohio State 70-67 on the road to rise from the grave temporarily at 0.3%. Nevertheless we still don't see another win for them, that is, they won't be favored going forward, but in the Big Ten the opportunity is always there.
• Wright State barely comes up for air at 0.1%. The Raiders got two road wins last week, improving their projection from 14-17 to 18-13, still not nearly good enough for a Horizon League team to have much of a prayer but their immediate schedule could keep them winning for a while.

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Weekend upsets: Kentucky tops Tennessee, St. John's beats UConn

Some major upsets this weekend, as two projected 1-seeds lost at home to teams that were becoming longshots to make the tournament.

On Saturday Kentucky, whose season was fading fast, rebounded in a major way by beating possibly the best team in the nation on their home court. The Wildcats topped Tennessee 63-56 as an 18-point underdog by the Strength power rating where the Vols were #1.

Then on Sunday UConn continued their slide with a stunning 85-74 home loss to unheralded St. John's. Not long ago the Huskies were the top overall seed in the Dance Chance and were still a 1-seed as of Thursday. But after a 14-0 start Connecticut has lost 4 of 5 games and it's clearly seeping into the psychological arena. UConn was also an 18 point favorite.

It's a big turnaround for Kentucky, who was coming off a home loss to South Carolina and was receiving near-obituaries in the press for their season. Probably that's what spurred them to this major upset win which could turn their season around. Just based on this win the Wildcats, who were down to a 7% chance to make the tournament in our Dance Chance, will become a seeded bubble team at the very least, while Tennessee will drop to at least a 2-seed.

St. John's had even lower tournament odds at just 2.9%. They might not immediately be seeded but their odds will go up to at least 10%, and instead their win-loss projection will be firmly on the "above .500" side. Before Sunday, they were projected to be 16-15 before conference tournaments. So while the Red Storm still have a lot of work to do, they took a big step with today's win. But was it really due to anything they did, or a continuation of UConn's slump?

Tennessee's loss can probably be attributed to Kentucky's realization that their season needed to change, but UConn's loss is probably due to psychological repercussions of their recent slump. St. John's was coming off a 5-game slide and not playing particularly well, and UConn's 3 prior losses were on the road to good teams, so a home loss to the Red Storm was very unexpected. But everyone knew Kentucky was capable of playing great basketball, as they were in most people's top 10 in the pre-season. St. John's wasn't in the top 25.

With UConn and Tennessee both dropping from the 1-line, who will move in? Kansas and Purdue are safe of course, and the next two in line would be #5 UCLA and #6 Houston. But because Kentucky increased their stock with the Tennessee win, #7 Alabama might pass the Cougars and take the 1-seed along with UCLA, as both teams beat the Wildcats. 

California escapes from the graveyard

Teams in the Dance Chance that are listed with odds of <0.1% are essentially considered no-hopers, that is, no matter what they do from that point on they're not getting an at-large bid. But occasionally a team with almost zero chance suddenly has a tiny chance again. Here are four teams and how they did it.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
218. Idaho St.                 6-10  14-17   BSky    0.4   +0.4        

225. Pacific                  10-9   12-19   WCC     0.2   +0.2        
226. California                3-13   4-27   P12     0.2   +0.2        

230. Bowling Green             8-7   14-17   MAC     0.1   +0.1

Idaho State was in the graveyard last week but beat Weber State—their 3rd straight win—to climb out and now have a 0.4% of getting an at-large bid. Projected at 14-17 it's still very unlikely and with 10 losses still almost impossible in the Big Sky, but the hope is there after improving from a 10-21 projection last week. The best the Bengals can probably do is stay above water a little longer, unfortunately.

Pacific was projected to be 9-22 last week but now look to be 12-19. That gives them a 0.2% chance of an at-large, and since they're in the West Coast Conference they have a prayer. They beat San Diego and Pepperdine last week, why not Gonzaga in two weeks and St. Mary's in February?

California is a team that might have a measurable chance, but they need to be damn near perfect. They've been in the graveyard for many weeks but after 3 wins in 4 games—including Stanford, 92-70, last Friday—the Bears look to be playing much better than their 0-12 start would suggest and have alleged 0.2% at-large odds. But 13 losses is already cutting it close even if they have that at the end of the season! Projected at 4-27, we don't see their freedom lasting long but who knows?

Finally Bowling Green had almost no chance last week and now has...almost no chance. 0.1% is technically 1 in 1000 but that seems long odds for a MAC team, even with only 7 losses so far. But the Falcons have won four straight, the last two over actual D-I teams and are 2-0 in conference play.

Undoubtedly these teams will be swept up among the growing wave of "<0.1%" teams, and maybe eventually become "0.0" teams meaning they'll be locked into zero chance odds. But for now they're keeping their slim hope alive. You can escape from the graveyard, but in most cases you'll still need to win your conference to go to the Big Dance.

2023 Week 9: Kansas State goes Wild

Week 9 was a wild one so let's get right into it. We'll compare to last week's projection, not the Thursday update, since I didn't review things since then. Plus it makes for more dramatic results.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
  1. Kansas                   14-1   29-2    B12    95.4   +2.6    1    1
  2. Purdue                   15-1   30-1    B10    95.0   +1.8    1    1
  3. Tennessee                13-2   29-2    SEC    94.7   +2.6    1    2
  4. Connecticut              15-2   29-2    BE     94.3   +0.7    1    1

Kansas takes over as the overall #1 seed from UConn, who lost their 2nd game but held on to a 1-seed just barely. The Jayhawks' projection bumped up from 28-3 to 29-2 and that would result in the top seed. Even apparently over a 30-1 Purdue. The Boilermakers lost a game they were supposed to win—Rutgers at home—and then won a game they were supposed to lose—Ohio State on the road—and the upshot was somehow an upgrade from 29-2 to 30-1. It's very unlikely any of these teams will end up with the stellar records shown here, but teams below will have extra losses too. It will come down to conference tournaments in the end.

Tennessee made the move back into the top seed line; big wins over Mississippi State (87-53) and South Carolina (85-42) put them #1 in Strength. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
  5. Houston                  16-1   30-1    Amer   93.9   +2.2    2    2
  6. Alabama                  13-2   28-3    SEC    93.6   +2.2    2    2
  7. UCLA                     14-2   28-3    P12    93.2   +2.2    2    2
  8. Arizona                  14-2   28-3    P12    92.8   +0.3    2    1
  9. Gonzaga                  14-3   27-4    WCC    92.4   +1.8    3    3
 10. Rutgers                  11-5   25-6    B10    92.1   +7.0    3    6
 11. Florida Atlantic         14-1   30-1    CUSA   91.7   +2.2    3    3
 12. Texas                    13-2   23-8    B12    91.3   +1.5    3    3

Arizona was looking fantastic until they inexplicably lost at home to Washington State, 75-61. That dropped them out of the top line to the last 2-seed, and made UCLA the new favorite in the Pac-12. The big news among the 3-seeds is Rutgers, who upset Purdue on the road, and that was enough to move them from a 6-seed to a 3-seed, despite the fact that they turned around and lost at home to Iowa.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 13. Charleston               16-1   30-1    CAA    91.0   +4.1    4    5
 14. Ohio St.                 10-5   24-7    B10    90.6   +0.3    4    3
 15. Kansas St.               14-1   23-8    B12    90.2  +46.8    4   13p
 16. Duke                     12-4   24-7    ACC    89.9   +1.5    4    4
 17. Xavier                   13-3   25-6    BE     89.5   +4.8    5    7
 18. North Carolina           11-5   23-8    ACC    89.1   +1.5    5    5
 19. Virginia                 11-3   24-5    ACC    88.7    0.0    5    4
 20. Saint Mary's             14-4   26-5    WCC    88.4   +6.8    5    7

Charleston now has the longest winning streak in the country at 15, and they're favored to continue it all the way to 30-1 which could put them in line for a 4-seed. Again, we'll believe it when we see it, as every team stubs their toe somewhere. That might come as soon as Wednesday for the Cougars at UNC Wilmington. Meanwhile Ohio State was riding high last week but lost a heartbreaker to Purdue at home and then fell to Maryland on the road, both games they were tagged to probably win. It only cost them a seed as they're still neck and neck with Purdue and Rutgers as the team in the wild Big Ten.

Speaking of wild, how about Kansas State? The quietest 1-loss team suddenly burst onto the scene two weeks ago upsetting West Virginia in overtime, then last week they upset both Texas—116-103—and Baylor in another overtime game. The Wildcats aren't too highly thought of in our Strength power rating, where they are #20, but their résumé is already pretty great now and they zoom from a Last Four In play-in team to a sold 4-seed, gaining almost 50% in their odds of making the tournament.

Two other big movers are Xavier, who continued their recent winning ways, and St. Mary's, who at least for now rates as the best team in the West Coast Conference. Both are up two seeds from last week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 21. San Diego St.            12-3   23-7    MWC    88.0   +0.7    6    5
 22. Iowa St.                 12-2   20-10   B12    87.6  +22.7    6   10
 23. Baylor                   10-5   18-13   B12    87.3   +0.7    6    5
 24. Kent St.                 12-3   28-3    MAC    86.9   +3.8    6    7
 25. N.C. State               13-4   24-7    ACC    86.5  +53.6    7    
 26. West Virginia            10-5   20-11   B12    84.8   -1.0    7    6
 27. Arkansas                 12-3   24-7    SEC    83.3   -4.7    7    4
 28. Utah St.                 13-3   25-6    MWC    81.7   -3.7    7    6

Another big mover in the Big Twelve is Iowa State. The Cyclones beat both Oklahoma and TCU on the road last week, improving their outlook to 20-10 which is great for the parity-cursed conference. In the ACC NC State crushed Duke 84-60 at home and followed that with a road win at Virginia Tech, enough to take the Wolfpack from an under-the-bubble team to a 7-seed. Meanwhile Arkansas went the other direction, dropping from a 4-seed after losing to Auburn.

Mountain West, part one: San Diego State drops a seed but takes over as the top team in the Mountain West conference. The Aztecs and Utah State, who also falls a seed, have been mainstays in the seedings while a range of other teams have been mostly stuck on the bubble.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 29. Creighton                 9-7   22-9    BE     80.2   +7.6    8    9
 30. Marquette                13-4   23-8    BE     78.6   +7.6    8    9
 31. New Mexico               14-2   24-6    MWC    77.0  -12.1    8    4
 32. Indiana                  10-5   20-11   B10    75.5  -10.7    8    6
 33. Nevada                   14-3   23-8    MWC    73.9  +53.1    9    
 34. Oral Roberts             13-3   26-3    Sum    72.3   -3.2    9    8
 35. Illinois                 10-5   20-11   B10    70.8   -6.3    9    8
 36. Boise St.                12-4   23-8    MWC    69.2  +55.9    9    
 37. Colorado                 11-6   18-13   P12    67.6   +4.2   10   10
 38. Sam Houston St.          12-4   26-4    WAC    66.1  -14.0   10    7
 39. UNLV                     12-3   23-7    MWC    64.5  +42.2   10     
 40. Iowa                     10-6   19-12   B10    63.0  +31.6   10     

Mountain West, part two: Last week's MWC auto-bid was New Mexico, but the Lobos fall from a 4-seed to an 8-seed after getting their first loss—to Fresno State and also their 2nd loss, to UNLV. The Rebels ride that win to a 10-seed placement this week, just as Boise State rides their upset over Utah State to a 9-seed and Nevada has two solid wins that improve their outlook from 20-11 to 23-8 and a 9-seed. The teams are up 42%, 56%, and 53% respectively as the MWC looks to have six teams in the Big Dance. That can change quickly, as seen by this week's movement; just 7 days ago, hopes for more than 3 bids were fading fast.

Sam Houston State is still tops in the WAC but they keep falling victim to conference upsets; this time it was Grand Canyon, at home, in overtime, dropping the Bearkats to a 10-seed and making it more and more likely they'll need to win the WAC tournament.

And just when it looked like were out of it, Iowa bounces back with a home win over Indiana and a road win over red-hot Rutgers. Still not back to a 20-win projection, however, they'll have to work hard to stay above the bubble. Speaking of the Hoosiers, two losses this week has turned them into a pedestrian 20-11 8-seed, far from the 1-seed we projected a month ago!

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 41. TCU                      13-2   18-13   B12    61.4  +27.0   11    
 42. Providence               14-3   22-9    BE     59.8  +40.5   11    
 43. Miami FL                 13-2   21-9    ACC    58.3  -11.2   11    9
 44. Washington St.            7-10  16-15   P12    56.7  +48.3   11    
 45. Virginia Tech            11-5   22-9    ACC    55.1   -2.3   12   11
 46. Auburn                   12-3   22-9    SEC    53.6   -2.3   12   11
 47. Arizona St.              13-3   22-9    P12    52.0   +3.6   12   13
 48. Dayton                   11-5   26-5    A10    50.5   +0.6   12p  12
 49. Oklahoma St.              9-6   16-15   B12    48.9   -2.5   12p  12
 50. Texas Tech               10-5   17-14   B12    47.3  -11.6   13p  11
 51. Utah                     12-5   19-12   P12    47.0  -19.5   13p  10
 52. Maryland                 11-5   20-11   B10    45.4  +15.5        
 53. Mississippi St.          12-3   23-8    SEC    43.8   -3.0        13
 54. Pittsburgh               11-5   22-9    ACC    42.3  +16.9        
 55. UCF                      12-4   24-6    Amer   40.7   +3.3        
 56. Northwestern             12-3   19-12   B10    39.2  +30.4

The Bubble: TCU's ascendence to an 11-seed means 9 of 10 teams in the Big Twelve are currently in the seeding, though three of those (TCU along with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) are precarious bubble teams with a lot of season left to play. The Horned Frogs upset Baylor to get here, but broke their 11-game winning streak with a loss to Iowa State.

Providence took a big step into an 11-seed after beating UConn last Wednesday; the Friars have now won 9 straight. But the biggest upset was Washington State beating Arizona in Tucson, and it wasn't close at 74-61. The Cougars are clearly the best 10-loss team in the nation and look to barely finish above .500 which would put them somewhere on the bubble, but they'll probably have to do better than 16-15 unless they're planning on winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Utah drops from a comfy 10-seed to the Last Team In after falling to Oregon Saturday, while Mississippi State falls from a 13-seed to one of the First Four Out. The Bulldogs are 12-3 after starting 11-0.

Others hoping for a break include Maryland, who doesn't quite make our seeding despite beating Ohio State on Sunday; Pitt who upset Virginia but lost to Clemson by a point at home; and Northwestern, yet another Big Ten hopeful, upset both Illinois and Indiana this week and it still wasn't quite enough. They have Rutgers at home next, and that would do it.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 57. Iona                     11-5   26-5    MAAC   37.6  -22.9   13   11
 58. North Texas              13-3   25-6    CUSA   36.0   -2.9        14p
 59. Missouri                 13-2   22-9    SEC    34.5  -20.0        12
 60. Marshall                 13-4   26-5    SB     32.9  -29.1   13   10
 61. Utah Valley              13-4   25-6    WAC    31.3  -10.6        14p
 62. Memphis                  12-4   23-8    Amer   29.8  -15.2        13p
 63. UAB                      12-4   25-6    CUSA   28.2  -24.7        12
 64. James Madison            11-6   25-6    SB     26.6  -51.9         8
 65. Bradley                  11-6   23-8    MVC    25.1  -48.9   13    8
 66. Oregon                    9-7   19-12   P12    23.5   +7.2        
 67. Kentucky                 10-5   19-12   SEC    22.0  -14.0        
 68. Clemson                  13-3   23-8    ACC    20.4  +15.7        
 69. Seton Hall                9-8   15-16   BE     18.8   +8.6        
 70. Liberty                  12-5   26-5    ASun   17.3  -29.2   14   13
 71. USC                      11-4   19-12   P12    15.7   +8.0        
 72. Southern Miss            14-3   25-6    SB     14.1  -53.9         9

Mid-Major massacre: To achieve some of the lofty seedings we give the mid-major champs, they have to be near-perfect in the games they're supposed to win. As the season progresses, upsets invariably happen and unlike the Major conference teams, there's nowhere to "make up" for an upset. For example Iowa got upset a few times which sunk their odds, but they beat some high-ranked teams to get back into it. That opportunity isn't there for a mid-Major.

Iona in the MAAC is a lower bubble team but at this point won't make it as an at-large even if they win out. They lost to Quinnipiac last week and no one else on their schedule is a great win. And although Marshall takes over as Sun Belt favorite, they need to win the league as they fall from a 10-seed to a 13-seed after an upset loss to Georgia Southern. The Herd is now ahead of James Madison who drops from an 8-seed after two crushing home upset losses last week to Texas State and Appalachian State. Bradley falls from an 8-seed after losing to Murray State but is still the front-runner in the Missouri Valley. And Liberty's slim chance for a backup plan at-large were hurt by their loss to Eastern Kentucky. 

Other teams out: North Texas just slips out of the seedings despite two wins, while C-USA mate UAB dropped two games—one to conference leader FAU by two points, the other to lowly FIU in overtime. Utah Valley hoped to give the WAC another team but they slide down despite a 10-game winning streak; apparently the projection is deciding the WAC should be a 1-bid league. Same with the American as Memphis drops out despite beating East Carolina last week.

Missouri's push into the seedings suffered a setback as they lost to Arkansas and barely beat Vandy at home. And Southern Miss couldn't sustain their 9-seed, falling to Louisiana 75-61 and dropping well off the bubble.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
 73. UC Irvine                10-5   27-5    BW     12.6   +0.8   14   14
 96. Youngstown St.           12-5   26-5    Horz    4.2   -0.7   14   15
 97. Montana St.              10-7   24-7    BSky    4.0   +0.9   15   16
116. Furman                   12-5   24-7    SC      3.0   +0.2   15    
121. Longwood                 12-5   24-7    BSth    2.9   -0.5   15   15
125. Colgate                   9-7   24-7    Pat     2.8   +0.0   15   16p
126. SIU Edwardsville         12-5   26-5    OVC     2.8   -0.4   16   16
131. North Carolina Central    7-8   20-8    MEAC    2.6   -0.7   16   15
134. Chattanooga              10-7   22-9    SC      2.6   -1.2        15
148. UMass Lowell             14-3   26-5    AE      2.2   -6.4   16p  14
149. Grambling St.             9-6   23-7    SWAC    2.2   -0.8   16p  16p
168. Texas A&M Corpus Chris   10-6   24-7    Slnd    1.7   +0.2   16p    
200. Nicholls St.              7-8   20-10   Slnd    0.8   -1.0        16p
296. Fairleigh Dickinson      10-8   18-13   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p    
304. Wagner                    8-7   16-11   NEC    <0.1    0.0        16p

1-bid Conferences: These are the real 1-bidders, the conferences where you can be sure there won't be an at-large in the bunch. In the Southern Conference Furman takes over from Chattanooga after two big wins—97-72 and 70-56 over The Citadel and East Tennessee State. The Mocs meanwhile fell to UNC Greensboro.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is now the Southland favorite. They played Incarnate Word twice last week, home and away, and won both, 91-61 and 80-71. Nicholls State lost to Northwestern State and is now pretty far behind the Islanders.

It's a lot closer in the Northeast Conference, where Fairleigh Dickinson has a slim edge over Wagner now. Two losses by the Seahawks put them below the Knights, who have won four in a row but still are in the zombie territory of practical zero-chance for an at-large bid regardless of future performance.

Is St. Mary's better than Gonzaga?

Today I noticed that St. Mary's had passed Gonzaga on Kenpom.com, and I wondered—could that be true? Could St. Mary's be a better team than Gonzaga right now?

As of Saturday afternoon St. Mary's is #10 in Pomeroy and Gonzaga #14. This is after Gonzaga struggled past Santa Clara 81-76 and St. Mary's destroyed Portland 85-43.

The latter was more of a catalyst, as the Bulldogs were #14 before their win and the Gaels were #15. It was their big win that moved them up to #10.

That made me wonder how much Kenpom's recency bias had to do with the rating. The big margin itself certainly helped, but Pomeroy diminishes the impact of games that are expected to be blowouts. On the other hand, recent games are counted more heavily, so even if you diminish a big blowout, the fact that the big blowout occurred recently sort of adds it back in—for the time being. Once that game is more in the past it doesn't matter as much, but if you count recent games more heavily, that big blowout is still front and center right now.

So I compared his rankings to the current (as of Saturday, January 7th's games) for the Strength power rating, which doesn't count recent results more heavily:

#   Team                    record    rating
8.  Ohio St.                  10-4     21.00
9.  Rutgers                   11-4     20.69
10. Saint Mary's              14-4     20.51
11. Texas                     13-2     20.21
12. Gonzaga                   14-3     19.94

So in Strength, St. Mary's has passed Gonzaga as of Saturday. 

That made me wonder—has St. Mary's ever been better than Gonzaga? In the Modern Gonzaga era, I mean—the era that started with the 'Zags 1999 Elite Eight run.

The answer is yes, but not very often. Here's a list:

• In 2010, St. Mary's finished #29 in Pomeroy with Gonzaga #44

and that's it. In the last 24 seasons, it's happened once by the end of the year.

And it doesn't mean that St. Mary's will hold their slim lead over Gonzaga this year either. The teams have to play at least twice this season, plus probably a third time in the WCC tournament, so it's still up in the air who ends up the best.

But it's interesting  because Gonzaga was clearly favored to be better again this year after being a top, dominant team last year. We had them #1 pre-season with St. Mary's just #71. Pomeroy started St. Mary's at #47 and Gonzaga #3.

In the end it's an interesting development that's worth watching unfold. It's been a while since we don't know which team is the best team in the West Coast Conference.

Another note: St. Mary's played another game this week prior to the Portland beatdown, beating Academy of Art 84-64. We have no idea how good Academy of Art is, since they are Division II but they don't seem to be a very good D-II team really, and beating them by 20 points is arguably St. Mary's worst performance of the year. But since they haven't played any other D-II teams, this game gets lost in the shuffle and doesn't affect their rating. Pomeroy doesn't count it either.

It's probably just as well to throw that game out, since it's hard to believe St. Mary's took the game seriously, and beating a team by 20 is usually the same as winning by 40. But the fact that they beat Portland—clearly a better team than Academy of Art—by 42, and that game gets counted, suggest that the Gaels sort of get a cherry-picked boost from the game where they really got fired up, while a game where they went through the motions doesn't get counted. Average the two performances together and I don't think St. Mary's makes the jump in the ratings that they made.

It's also worth pointing out that from a résumé standpoint, Gonzaga is far superior. Both teams have a handful of losses, but Gonzaga lost to top teams Texas, Purdue, and Baylor. St. Mary's did lose to Houston, and nearly-undefeated New Mexico,  but also fell to Washington and Colorado State. Their best wins are over San Diego State, Oral Roberts, and North Texas, while the Zags have wins over Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, and Michigan State. We put Gonzaga #4 in Success with St. Mary's just #56, and ESPN's BPI lists the teams' Strength of Record as #9 and #62 respectively.

Gonzaga and St. Mary's don't play each other until February 4 at St. Mary's, and the return is on February 25th just before the WCC tournament starts.