SportsRatings: College Football

2024 Week 2 Results: Tennessee replaces Oklahoma in Playoff; Notre Dame hangs on

You know the big games: Texas beating Michigan, Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois. Yes, those were the big ones but the most important games turned out to be Oklahoma's near-loss and Tennessee's dominant win. Let's take a look.

Ohio State beat Western Michigan 56-0 and took over the projected #1 finish in the projected Committee top 25, gaining a full 10% in Playoff Odds. Really? Does that win carry so much weight? Well, let's look at how the Buckeyes' top contenders in the Big Ten did last week. Oregon nearly lost (37-34) at home to Boise State, Penn State struggled mightily (34-27) with Bowling Green, and of course Michigan lost badly (31-12) at home to Texas. That is where most of Ohio State's +10.0% comes from.

Naturally Texas gains a lot (+14.3%) from beating the Wolverines, pulling them ahead of Georgia for the projected #2 spot. Why are the Longhorns ahead of the Bulldogs? No, they don't rank better in projected power rating, but their remaining schedule is far, far easier than Georgia's. Texas has the home field in their matchup later this year, and looking at the rest of the top ten the Longhorns avoid #5 Alabama, #6 Ole Miss, and #8 Tennessee, all of whom play Georgia.

Projected Final Committee Top 25 (post week 2)

                                     Projected Record         Odds (as of 9/08/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  4   1. Ohio State          *B10    2-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    72.5  +10.0   99.6   +0.5
  6   2. Texas               *SEC    2-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    72.0  +14.3   99.8   +1.8
  3   3. Georgia              SEC    2-0  11-1   9.9- 2.1    69.7   +3.5   99.4   +0.5
  1   4. Oregon               B10    2-0  12-0  10.1- 1.9    68.5   -4.3   99.0    0.0
  5   5. Alabama              SEC    2-0  12-0   9.8- 2.2    64.5   +3.8   98.3   +0.8
  8   6. Mississippi          SEC    2-0  11-1   9.8- 2.2    54.6   +2.0   98.0   +0.8
  7   7. Penn State           B10    2-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.9   -4.4   97.9   -0.2
 18   8. Tennessee            SEC    2-0   9-3   9.3- 2.7    39.3  +19.5   98.6  +11.1
  2   9. Notre Dame           Ind    1-1  11-1   9.2- 2.8    39.8  -29.7   97.2   -2.2
 11  10. Kansas St           *B12    2-0  11-1   9.0- 3.0    35.1   +5.7   92.9   +4.5

Speaking of Tennessee, their 51-10 thrashing of AP Top 25 NC State propelled them into the top 10, both in the AP and in our final Committee standings projection where they gain nearly 20% in Playoff odds. They come in just ahead of Notre Dame, who lost at home to Northern Illinois but has a friendly schedule this year and remains one of the favorites to make the cut. They do lose nearly 30% of that, falling from around 70% to just 40% chance.

Kansas State barely beat Tulane (34-27), but Tulane was damn good last year and K-State was on the road, unlike the other teams that nearly lost last week. Put in perspective, the Wildcats beat Tulane on the road by the same score Penn State beat Bowling Green at home.

Southern Cal may be one of the better Big Ten teams if trends continue (they blanked Utah State 48-0) but our algorithm needs a bit more convincing before the Trojans look Playoff-worthy.

Miami did enough in a gimme week against FAMU to solidify their leading ACC role, while Clemson bounced back with a strong showing against Appalachian State (66-20). Louisville is the other ACC contender and they held their position in week 2.

The SEC teams outside the top 10 will have a tough time making headway. Missouri blanked Buffalo 38-0 but dropped a few spots due to other teams surging. Oklahoma beat Houston just 16-12 and that dropped the Sooners like a rock, down 11.6% and from 5th place in the SEC to a distant 7th. Houston lost to UNLV 27-7 in week 1 at home, to put in perspective how poor Oklahoma played Saturday.  Texas A&M bounced back beating McNeese State 52-10 but again, their home loss to the Irish looks pretty bad now so they still fell to #25.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 14  11. Southern Cal         B10    2-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    34.9   +9.5   87.9   +8.0
 12  12. Miami FL            *ACC    2-0  11-1   9.0- 3.0    30.2   +6.4   93.5   +3.1
 10  13. Missouri             SEC    2-0  10-2   8.6- 3.4    28.3   +3.4   91.7   +1.1
 13  14. Utah                 B12    2-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    29.5   +3.4   90.1   +3.8
 16  15. Iowa St              B12    2-0  11-1   8.9- 3.1    27.8   +3.7   92.7   +5.6
 19  16. Boise St            *MWC    1-1  11-1   9.1- 2.9    27.5   +7.4   96.2   +3.1
 26  17. Clemson              ACC    1-1  11-1   8.4- 3.6    22.0   +8.3   89.9  +10.8
 17  18. Oklahoma St          B12    2-0  10-2   8.5- 3.5    23.6   -1.3   88.7   +3.0
 20  19. Louisville           ACC    2-0  10-2   8.3- 3.7    24.2   +2.5   87.7   +3.3
  9  20. Oklahoma             SEC    2-0   8-4   7.5- 4.5    20.2  -11.6   81.2   -7.1
 15  21. Michigan             B10    1-1   9-3   7.3- 4.7    16.3   -6.6   80.2   -2.3
 21  22. Liberty             *CUSA   2-0  12-0   9.8- 2.2    16.5   -1.1   97.4   +1.2
 41  23. Washington St        P12    2-0   9-3   8.8- 3.2    13.6   +6.9   93.6  +15.1
 24  24. Memphis             *AAc    2-0  10-2   9.5- 2.5    16.9   -0.6   96.7   +4.7
 22  25. Texas A&M            SEC    1-1  10-2   7.7- 4.3    16.0   -0.7   83.4    0.0
 23  26. Arizona              B12    2-0   8-4   8.0- 4.0    15.8   -1.3   85.0    0.0
 25  30. TCU                  B12    2-0  10-2   7.8- 4.2    14.2   -1.4   81.6   +1.6

Almost all of the relevant Big Twelve is in the range above. Aside from K-State who leads the conference by a hair, we have Utah (who beat Baylor but lost QB Cam Rising for the time being), Iowa State (who came back to beat Iowa by a point), and Oklahoma State (who went back and forth before beating Arkansas in overtime). Obviously no one stands out here. To make matters worse, two Big Twelve teams exited the top 25 projection: Arizona (beat Northern Arizona 22-10) and TCU (beating LIU 45-0 wasn't good enough I guess, or it was the hangover of beating Stanford by just 7 points the week before)

Boise State was a big winner despite losing. The Broncos Playoff Odds jumped 7.4% due to their near-win at Oregon. And if they'd won? They'd probably be in the top 10. They're a clear favorite to win the Mountain West and with it a Playoff berth. Though they only beat New Mexico State 30-24, Liberty is still a threat to go 12-0 in C-USA, and Memphis is looking solid in the American.

The surprise newcomer to the top 25? The Pac-12's Washington State. The Cougars beat Texas Tech 37-16 and have a pretty easy schedule. They'll have no conference title game so they probably have to win out or at least go 11-1 to have a good Playoff shot, but we give them almost 14% odds.

The group below is mostly concerned with getting to a bowl game, though California's win over Auburn put them in double digits for the Playoff, and Texas State's 49-10 mauling of UTSA gave the Sun Belt a fighting chance to have a rep. The big move was of course made by Northern Illinois after dispatching Notre Dame. The win puts them at 2-0 and around 90% chance to make a bowl game and made them the MAC favorite, passing even Bowling Green who jumped over 10% despite (or due to) losing a close one at Penn State.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 42  27. California           ACC    2-0  10-2   8.3- 3.7    15.4   +6.3   86.4  +15.2
 46  28. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw   2-0  12-0   9.3- 2.7    13.5   +7.9   94.4  +13.3
 68  33. Northern Illinois   *MAC    2-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6     6.3   +5.1   89.6  +20.1
 52  39. Nebraska             B10    2-0   8-4   7.1- 4.9     7.6   +3.0   74.6  +10.9
 66  41. South Carolina       SEC    2-0   5-7   6.7- 5.3     5.5   +3.8   70.2  +25.3
 64  48. Bowling Green        MAC    1-1  10-2   7.5- 4.5     2.9   +1.2   81.2  +10.9
 35  49. SMU                  ACC    2-1   9-3   6.7- 5.3     3.8   -6.5   68.2  -12.4
 32  50. Auburn               SEC    1-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     3.0   -6.2   62.9  -12.3
 34  51. North Carolina St    ACC    1-1   7-5   6.5- 5.5     3.7   -7.4   66.0  -12.4
 30  54. Texas Tech           B12    1-1   7-5   6.4- 5.6     3.5   -7.8   65.3  -12.9
 62  55. East Carolina        AAc    2-0  11-1   7.9- 4.1     2.9   -0.4   84.0  +12.1
 61  56. Duke                 ACC    2-0   5-7   7.0- 5.0     3.1   -0.3   72.2  +10.9
 81  60. Brigham Young        B12    2-0   4-8   6.2- 5.8     4.0   +1.9   58.9  +15.3

Is Nebraska back? The Colorado win would suggest so, or at least they're probably bowl-bound. And South Carolina's 31-6 win at Kentucky suggest the Gamecocks won't be an SEC pushover this year, while Auburn's loss to California puts their bowl hopes in a bit of doubt. Three ACC teams had noteworthy results: SMU tumbled after losing to BYU (who rose 15%), NC State took a big hit from Tennessee at home, and Duke got a solid win at Northwestern, who dropped (see below) under 1 in 3 bowl odds.

Below, Pitt's comeback (28-27, from down 27-6) vs. Cincinnati put them above the 50% mark and dropped the Bearcats beneath it. Maryland (-14.9%) and Michigan State (+15.7%) went opposite directions after the Spartans won by a field goal, but the Terps are still more likely to reach a bowl (just barely).

Kentucky's bowl odds were savaged (down 24%, from about 75% to just over 50%) by their big loss to South Carolina. Other big losers include Appalachian State (lost by 46 to Clemson) and Texas-San Antonio (lost by 39 to Texas State). 

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 77  62. Pittsburgh           ACC    2-0   5-7   6.3- 5.7     3.2   +1.5   61.0  +14.0
 43  63. Maryland             B10    1-1   6-6   5.8- 6.2     2.7   -3.8   54.6  -14.9
 83  64. San Jose St          MWC    2-0   7-5   7.0- 5.0     2.8   +1.3   72.2  +16.4
 37  68. Kentucky             SEC    1-1   6-6   5.6- 6.4     1.2   -6.7   50.5  -24.2
 87  69. Army                 AAc    2-0   8-4   7.4- 4.6     1.0   +0.3   76.9  +19.5
 96  71. Michigan St          B10    2-0   4-8   5.7- 6.3     1.0   +0.6   49.7  +15.7
 98  72. Arizona St           B12    2-0   3-9   5.5- 6.5     2.1   +1.2   46.6  +14.0
 55  77. Appalachian St       SUNe   1-1   7-5   6.0- 6.0     1.3   -4.6   57.5  -13.0
 49  80. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    1-1   8-4   6.2- 5.8     0.2   -3.5   62.3  -16.8
 94  82. Ohio U.              MAC    1-1   8-4   6.6- 5.4     0.2   +0.1   68.1  +10.0
101  84. Georgia Southern     SUNe   1-1   5-7   5.9- 6.1     0.4   +0.1   56.4  +12.4
 70  85. Wake Forest          ACC    1-1   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.9   -1.5   41.0  -11.8
 80  94. Northwestern         B10    1-1   2-10  4.7- 7.3     0.3   -0.8   32.7  -11.0
 74  95. Cincinnati           B12    1-1   4-8   4.8- 7.2     0.4   -1.4   37.0  -14.1

Army started 2-0 by beating Florida Atlantic and the Knights now have over a 75% chance for a bowl, while the Owls (below) remain just above 50%. Arizona State (above) jumped to near-par by edging Mississippi State, who (below) dropped below 25% odds in the tough SEC. San Jose State's gain (+16.4%) is Air Force's loss (-21.4%), and so on.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 75  96. Florida Atlantic     AAc    0-2   7-5   5.7- 6.3    <0.1   -0.4   54.4  -14.4
 88  98. Mississippi St       SEC    1-1   4-8   4.4- 7.6     0.2   -0.4   24.1  -12.7
124 100. Florida Int'l        CUSA   1-1   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.1    0.0   54.3  +22.9
 92 106. Utah St              MWC    1-1   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -0.8   40.9  -10.4
 76 111. Air Force            MWC    1-1   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -1.9   40.9  -21.4
102 117. South Alabama        SUNw   0-2   5-7   4.5- 7.5    <0.1   -0.1   31.9  -17.4
131 122. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   2-0   3-9   4.4- 7.6    <0.1   +0.1   26.8  +13.5
 97 123. Central Michigan     MAC    1-1   2-10  4.2- 7.8     0.0   -0.4   27.8  -26.4
 99 124. Alabama-Birmingham   AAc    1-1   5-7   4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.4   28.9  -26.2
122 127. UTEP                 CUSA   0-2   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   19.0  -15.3

Florida International blasted Central Michigan 52-16 and now looks like an on-money bowl team, while the Chippewas dropped from around 50% to closer to 25%. UAB fell nearly as much after losing 32-6 to ULM, who gained 13.5% but is still around a 1 in 4 chance. And if you think it couldn't get much worse for UTEP, think again. The Miners lost to FCS team Southern Utah at home, taking away a crucial win they really needed to have a decent shot at a bowl game. Now they need to go 6-4 and though we see 3 or 4 wins coming, it would have helped to only need 5 more at this point.

2024 Week 1 Results: Miami moves into Playoff picture; Notre Dame, Alabama jump

The first week (or week and a half) is over, and already some teams are in Playoff trouble. With the new 12-team field there's a lot more leeway—a single loss doesn't crash a team's odds like it did in the 4-team days—but it still puts your team in the back seats if they lose on opening week.

Almost all of the field stayed the same from last week, as there weren't too many real surprises or competitive games which is normal for the first few weekends. Oregon remained at the top of our list but just barely as the Ducks struggled to top FCS Idaho 24-14. It's unusual for a team to win and have their Playoff odds drop 1.6%—even their bowl odds dropped from 99.1% to 99.0%. The Ducks were ahead of the field at the pre-season but no more; they play Boise State next week so they've used their "poor game" pass already.

Notre Dame and Georgia both impressed, with the Irish jumping 14.6% and into the #2 position with their win at Texas A&M. That was one of their two big hurdles and without a conference championship game their path got a lot clearer; they're up a stunning 14.6% from last week. The Bulldogs crushed Clemson 34-3 but only rose 7.1% as their path in the SEC is still rocky by comparison—especially with the surge by Alabama who destroyed Western Kentucky 63-0 and jumped 14% and into the top 5. New member Texas looked good too, beating Colorado State 52-0. Georgia plays both of them, as well as #8 Mississippi, so it's no wonder their odds are conservative despite their performance this week.

Ohio State beat Akron 52-6 but that wasn't good enough to raise their Playoff odds, in fact they dipped 0.1%. Some of that was due to Penn State's 10.6% surge after a solid 34-12 win at West Virginia. Mississippi also saw their odds dip 0.1% after a 76-0 win over Furman. That's probably more due to Georgia's convincing win (and potential SEC title opponent Alabama) then their own play. Overall, the top 8 teams are well ahead of the rest, all over 50% for making the Playoff.

                                     Projected Record            Odds (9/03/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  1   1. Oregon              *B10    1-0  12-0  10.4- 1.6    72.8   -1.6   99.0   -0.1
  4   2. Notre Dame           Ind    1-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    69.5  +14.6   99.4   +2.2
  3   3. Georgia             *SEC    1-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    66.2   +7.1   98.9   +2.3
  2   4. Ohio State           B10    1-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    62.5   -0.1   99.1   +0.2
  8   5. Alabama              SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    60.7  +14.0   97.5   +5.3
  5   6. Texas                SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    57.7   +4.6   98.0   +2.4
  7   7. Penn State           B10    1-0  11-1   9.9- 2.1    57.3  +10.6   98.1   +3.7
  6   8. Mississippi          SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.6   -0.1   97.2   +1.3
  9   9. Oklahoma             SEC    1-0   9-3   8.3- 3.7    31.8   -2.3   88.3   +1.3
 11  10. Missouri             SEC    1-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    24.9   +0.6   90.6   +0.6
 12  11. Kansas St           *B12    1-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    29.4   +1.9   88.4   +1.7
 27  12. Miami FL            *ACC    1-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.8   +8.8   90.4  +13.6

Oklahoma is just inside the Playoff group. The Sooners' odds fell 2.3% even though they beat Temple 51-3, almost exactly the result expected. Again, blame being in the SEC where four teams ahead of them exceeded expectations over the weekend, and Missouri is right behind.

Miami was the big winner this week, moving into the projected field with an impressive 41-17 win at Florida, that, coupled with Clemson's debacle in Atlanta puts the Hurricanes in the ACC driver's seat. Kansas State remained the Big Twelve favorite, with Utah close behind. Iowa State didn't look great against North Dakota, winning just 21-3, while Oklahoma State's 44-20 win over FCS champ South Dakota State was much better. Meanwhile new Big Twelve member Arizona scored 61 against New Mexico but allowed 39, dinging their Playoff odds 5.2%, pretty harsh for a win.

                                     Projected Record            Odds (9/03/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 15  13. Utah                 B12    1-0  11-1   8.5- 3.5    26.1   +2.8   86.3   +2.9
 29  14. Southern Cal         B10    1-0   9-3   7.8- 4.2    25.4   +8.9   79.9  +11.7
 16  15. Michigan             B10    1-0   9-3   7.8- 4.2    22.9   +1.6   82.5   +4.8
 13  16. Iowa St              B12    1-0  11-1   8.5- 3.5    24.1   -2.0   87.1   +2.1
 21  17. Oklahoma St          B12    1-0  10-2   8.4- 3.6    24.9   +2.9   85.7   +6.4
 25  18. Tennessee            SEC    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    19.8   +4.1   87.5   +5.7
 19  19. Boise St            *MWC    1-0  11-1   8.8- 3.2    20.1   +1.3   93.1   +2.9
 23  20. Louisville           ACC    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    21.7   +2.2   84.4   +2.3
 20  21. Liberty             *CUSA   1-0  12-0   9.7- 2.3    17.6   +0.1   96.2   +2.0
 10  22. Texas A&M            SEC    0-1  10-2   7.8- 4.2    16.7  -13.4   83.4   -2.3
 14  23. Arizona              B12    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    17.1   -5.2   85.0   -3.0
 22  24. Memphis             *AAc    1-0  10-2   9.0- 3.0    17.5   -1.7   92.0   +1.0

The big winner above was Southern Cal, of course; getting LSU out of the way and in the W column is a big help. Boise State wasn't in the Playoff in our pre-season projection, but sneaked in last week and remained this week. The Broncos play Oregon next weekend and a win would make them a huge Playoff favorite. Liberty and Memphis are in the hunt for the fifth auto-bid conference champ if Boise falters. 

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 26  25. TCU                  B12    1-0  10-2   7.8- 4.2    15.6   -1.8   80.0   +4.0
 17  26. Clemson              ACC    0-1  10-2   7.6- 4.4    13.7   -6.9   79.1   -3.1
 38  27. North Carolina       ACC    1-0  11-1   8.2- 3.8    11.9   +3.1   85.0  +10.1
 33  28. Kansas               B12    1-0  10-2   7.6- 4.4    14.1   +2.2   77.4   +1.4
 18  29. LSU                  SEC    0-1   7-5   6.8- 5.2    10.8  -12.2   70.9   -5.5
  ...
 42  38. James Madison       *SUNe   1-0  10-2   8.5- 3.5     8.7   +2.2   88.4   +7.4
 24  39. Virginia Tech        ACC    0-1  10-2   7.2- 4.8     9.2  -10.8   74.6   -9.1
 64  40. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   1-0  11-1   8.1- 3.9     8.2   +4.3   83.2  +15.4
 80  48. UNLV                 MWC    1-0   8-4   7.3- 4.7     6.3   +3.8   73.9  +15.3
 84  56. Boston College       ACC    1-0   6-6   6.6- 5.4     3.8   +2.0   65.3  +20.6
 46  69. Western Kentucky     CUSA   0-1   9-3   6.7- 5.3     0.8   -3.7   69.0   -9.8
 40  79. Florida St           ACC    0-2   6-6   4.7- 7.3     1.0   -6.8   36.2  -22.6

Note how Clemson fell from grace with a bigger-than-expected loss margin, while North Carolina's 19-17 win at Minnesota gave them a pretty big boost. Turns out that was one of the toughest games on the Tar Heel schedule this year as they don't play Miami or Clemson, and Florida State (now #79 at 0-2) is a very reduced threat. Virginia Tech's Playoff odds also dropped double digits with their upset loss to Vanderbilt, while Boston College soared with their solid win over FSU. The Eagles' Playoff Odds aren't much, but their bowl odds jumped from 45% to 65% from one win.

Coastal Carolina and UNLV both gained 15% in bowl odds from decent wins, with the Chanticleers beating Jacksonville State 55-27 and the Rebels drubbing Houston 27-7.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
110  82. North Texas          AAc    1-0   5-7   6.1- 5.9     0.8   +0.3   58.0  +17.7
117  85. Sam Houston St       CUSA   1-0   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.7   +0.6   61.8  +22.7
120  95. Vanderbilt           SEC    1-0   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.3   +0.1   30.0  +11.7
123  98. Arizona St           B12    1-0   1-11  4.5- 7.5     0.9   +0.7   32.6  +15.0
 68 102. South Alabama        SUNw   0-1   6-6   5.5- 6.5     0.2   -2.0   49.3  -18.2
 66 104. Wyoming              MWC    0-1   6-6   5.0- 7.0     0.5   -3.7   43.0  -22.7
 81 106. Troy                 SUNw   0-1   3-9   5.3- 6.7     0.2   -1.5   46.5  -14.4
114 107. Eastern Michigan     MAC    1-0   5-7   5.9- 6.1     0.1    0.0   55.0   +9.5
 78 110. Florida              SEC    0-1   2-10  3.8- 8.2     0.5   -3.4   22.0  -17.8
 85 113. Jacksonville St      CUSA   0-1   8-4   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   -0.7   47.6  -14.5
 67 116. Rice                 AAc    0-1   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.2   -3.0   42.4  -23.3
126 119. Nevada               MWC    1-1   3-10  5.2- 7.8     0.2   +0.1   30.9  +10.2
118 126. Houston              B12    0-1   1-11  2.4- 9.6    <0.1   -0.3    8.2  -13.1
127 134. Massachusetts        Ind    0-1   2-10  3.2- 8.8     0.0    0.0    8.5  -12.1

More winners and losers from week 1, now at the bottom of the list where Playoff Odds are an afterthough so we focus on Bowl qualification. North Texas beat South Alabama 52-38, putting the Mean Green over 50% for a bowl game and the Jaguars just below the 50% mark at 49.3%. 

Sam Houston won 34-14 at Rice, and they gained more than 20% for it, up to 61.8% while Rice fell 23.3%—and all the way from #67 to #116. The Owls were about a 2-touchdown favorite before the game in our system.

While Arizona struggled last week, Arizona State rolled against Wyoming, 48-7, brightening their forecast for the season. We had them last in the Big Twelve, and not favored to win a single game—talk about exceeding expectations! Meanwhile Wyoming crashed 22.7% and next faces the Idaho team that gave Oregon fits.

Speaking of last place in the Big Twelve, Houston's bad loss to UNLV puts them in that spot. The Cougars now have the lowest bowl odds of any team in the nation. They don't play ASU, who is also forecast to go 1-11 game by game, the difference being the Sun Devils have a lot of close games now and should end up with 4 or 5 wins, while Houston looks to have 2 or 3.

Nevada beat Troy, 28-26, but it wasn't enough for the Wolf Pack to pass the Trojans in bowl odds. UMass now looks like the least Playoff-worthy team in the country, and is almost the least bowl-likely, too at 8.5% following their loss to Eastern Michigan, who now looks like a bowl contender.

Finally, Florida is easily the best team in this region, starting #39 in our pre-season rankings. The loss to Miami hurt them but it's mainly their SEC schedule going forward that puts them at just 22% bowl odds. They play Samford next weekend but after that it's hard to find a win let alone five more. They don't play Vanderbilt. Florida State looks less daunting now, but that one's on the road. Mississippi State is a possibility, or UCF or Kentucky at home. Good luck, Gators, you're gonna need it.

2024 Pre-season: The Projected 12-team Playoff Field

So who will make the Playoff? If our projections are to come true, it looks like:

• There will be three Big Ten teams—and FIVE from the SEC
• Kansas State is the favorite in a very close 4-team race in the Big 12
• Clemson from the ACC and Liberty from CUSA fight for the 4th seed, with many other conferences having a shot at the last auto-bid

                                      Proj Record         Odds
Rnk  Team                 Conf  Str  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% Bowl%
  1. Oregon               *B10    1  12-0  10.5- 1.5    72.5   98.76
  2. Ohio State            B10    3  11-1  10.1- 1.9   *61.6   98.71
  3. Georgia              *SEC    2  12-0   9.6- 2.4    57.3   96.36
  4. Notre Dame            Ind    7  12-0   9.9- 2.1   *54.5   96.38
  5. Texas                 SEC    4  11-1   9.4- 2.6   *50.4   94.72
  6. Mississippi           SEC    5  11-1   9.5- 2.5   *49.6   94.78
  7. Penn State            B10    8  11-1   9.3- 2.7   *44.3   93.03
  8. Alabama               SEC    6  10-2   8.9- 3.1   *43.2   90.95
  9. Oklahoma              SEC    9  10-2   8.3- 3.7   *32.8   86.12
 10. Texas A&M             SEC   10  10-2   8.3- 3.7    28.6   84.08
 11. Missouri              SEC   14   9-3   8.5- 3.5    23.8   89.22
 12. Kansas St            *B12   11  11-1   8.5- 3.5    27.6   85.78
 13. Iowa St               B12   12  11-1   8.3- 3.7    24.5   83.46
 14. Arizona               B12   15   9-3   8.4- 3.6    20.4   86.00
 15. Utah                  B12   18  11-1   8.1- 3.9    23.0   82.10
 16. Michigan              B10   16   9-3   7.5- 4.5    21.2   77.17
 17. Clemson              *ACC   22   9-3   7.8- 4.2    20.3   80.25
 18. Liberty              *CUSA  52  12-0   9.5- 2.5    17.6   92.71

Oregon and Ohio State are the favorites in the Big Ten, more likely to finish on top than anyone from the SEC, whose candidates are held back by crushing schedules where the league has six teams in the top ten in projected Strength. Georgia is the favorite there, with Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma edging out Texas A&M and Missouri for Playoff spots.

The Big 12 is tight with four teams—Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona, and Utah all in the running. Once again this league has the curse of parity, with the top four contenders all projected at 8-4 cumulatively. If any of them can really go 11-1 then they'll be in the driver's seat.

Notre Dame doesn't have a conference championship game, so if they go 12-0 they're a lock. 10-2 looks more realistic but that still probably gets them a bid among the Big 10 and SEC teams. Particularly because no one knows how the Committee will deal with such a huge tranche of SEC teams; this bodes well for the Irish as well as perhaps a 2nd team from the Big Twelve.

Penn State looks more likely to get in than defending national champ Michigan, who lost too many players (along with their coach). The Lions have an easier schedule too, not having to play Oregon, while the Wolverines also face Texas in the pre-conference slate.

It appears to be a very close race for the 4th seed, but when push comes to shove the ACC champ will almost certainly get the spot over any other conference team, particularly Liberty whose schedule will be among the easiest. The Flames rank only as our #52 team in Strength but they shouldn't be challenged a lot this season. Let's look at the ACC race and the race for the final auto-bid:

                                      Proj Record         Odds
Rnk  Team                 Conf  Str  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% Bowl%
 17. Clemson              *ACC   22   9-3   7.8- 4.2    20.3   80.25
 18. Liberty              *CUSA  52  12-0   9.5- 2.5    17.6   92.71
 19. Oklahoma St           B12   17  10-2   7.9- 4.1    21.2   79.66
 20. Boise St             *MWC   34  11-1   8.7- 3.3    17.5   89.23
 21. LSU                   SEC   13   8-4   7.4- 4.6    22.2   75.29
 22. Louisville            ACC   20   9-3   8.0- 4.0    19.2   81.55
 23. Memphis              *AAc   38  11-1   8.8- 3.2    18.9   89.59
 24. SMU                   ACC   25  11-1   8.3- 3.7    18.5   84.14
 25. Virginia Tech         ACC   26  11-1   8.3- 3.7    18.8   82.46
 26. Tennessee             SEC   23   9-3   7.6- 4.4    14.5   79.31
 27. Florida St            ACC   28   9-3   7.2- 4.8    17.3   71.47
 28. TCU                   B12   19  10-2   7.5- 4.5    17.2   75.14
 29. Miami FL              ACC   33  10-2   7.6- 4.4    15.3   76.23
 30. Southern Cal          B10   21   8-4   7.0- 5.0    16.4   68.00
 31. Auburn                SEC   24   6-6   7.1- 4.9    10.2   74.19
 32. Kansas                B12   31   8-4   7.5- 4.5    12.6   75.69
 33. Central Florida       B12   30   7-5   7.4- 4.6    11.5   74.17
 34. Iowa                  B10   29  10-2   7.2- 4.8    11.8   72.18
 35. North Carolina St     ACC   41   8-4   7.5- 4.5    10.7   74.79

There are seven ACC teams here, including Florida State who ranks only 5th among ACC contenders! Their game-by-game projection is a pedestrian 9-3; playing Notre Dame, Florida, and Memphis as their non-conference schedule doesn't do them any favors. Meanwhile both SMU and Virginia Tech have at least the potential to go 11-1 and challenge for the ACC crown.

Speaking of Memphis, the Tigers are one of the main contenders for the 5th auto-bid in this region. If Liberty stumbles (or just fails to impress), Boise State is also waiting in the wings from the Mountain West. 

                                      Proj Record         Odds
Rnk  Team                 Conf  Str  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% Bowl%
 36. Kentucky              SEC   27   8-4   6.9- 5.1     9.2   71.19
 37. Texas Tech            B12   32   8-4   7.3- 4.7    10.0   73.27
 38. North Carolina        ACC   46   9-3   7.5- 4.5     9.4   74.85
 39. Texas-San Antonio     AAc   63  10-2   7.8- 4.2     7.3   81.66
 40. Tulane                AAc   51   9-3   7.6- 4.4     9.5   77.79
 41. James Madison        *SUNe  72  10-2   8.0- 4.0     6.6   80.23
 42. Washington St         P12   55   7-5   7.3- 4.7     6.4   74.28
 43. California            ACC   44   8-4   6.8- 5.2     8.1   66.03
 44. Oregon St             P12   56   9-3   7.1- 4.9     5.1   72.49
 45. Texas St-San Marcos   SUNw  78  10-2   7.8- 4.2     5.5   77.08
 46. Washington            B10   37   6-6   6.2- 5.8     6.2   58.93
 47. Fresno St             MWC   67  10-2   7.3- 4.7     5.3   72.88
 48. Western Kentucky      CUSA  76   9-3   7.4- 4.6     3.9   76.16
 49. Maryland              B10   45   6-6   6.4- 5.6     5.2   62.16
 50. Rutgers               B10   48   7-5   6.7- 5.3     5.8   64.60
 51. Indiana               B10   49   8-4   6.8- 5.2     3.8   66.93
 52. Wisconsin             B10   35   6-6   6.1- 5.9     6.7   57.09
 53. Syracuse              ACC   58   7-5   6.7- 5.3     5.2   65.23
 54. Arkansas              SEC   42   4-8   5.9- 6.1     5.6   52.92
 55. Louisiana-Lafayette   SUNw  80   8-4   7.3- 4.7     5.0   72.65
 56. Appalachian St        SUNe  73   8-4   6.8- 5.2     5.5   66.49
 57. West Virginia         B12   36   6-6   5.8- 6.2     7.2   52.86
 58. Duke                  ACC   54   4-8   6.3- 5.7     5.7   60.04
 59. Nebraska              B10   47   8-4   6.2- 5.8     4.5   59.14
 60. UCLA                  B10   39   4-8   5.7- 6.3     5.6   52.17
 61. South Carolina        SEC   43   4-8   5.8- 6.2     4.5   52.23

The next section includes most of the rest of the Power conference teams, with Playoff Odds falling from around 10% to below 5%. The first Sun Belt teams show up, led by James Madison who is projected at 10-2 game by game with 8-4 being more likely. 

Last year's Playoff runner-up Washington loses almost all their starting lineup and is ranked only #37 in Strength, which doesn't bode well in the new Big Ten where they might struggle to get to a bowl game. Another Big Ten team, Nebraska, too, looks much better than #59 if they can win the games they're supposed to—but of course that has been the opposite of what the Cornhuskers have done in the last few years. A whole lot of the new Big Ten is here, with Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, and Wisconsin looking to break out of the parity mire. And UCLA's intro to the league probably won't be as successful as rivals Oregon or USC.

                                      Proj Record         Odds
Rnk  Team                 Conf  Str  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% Bowl%
 62. Coastal Carolina      SUNe  83  10-2   6.9- 5.1     4.2   67.54
 63. Toledo               *MAC   92   9-3   7.3- 4.7     2.5   72.18
 64. East Carolina         AAc   86   9-3   7.1- 4.9     3.7   69.44
 65. Wyoming               MWC   77   9-3   6.6- 5.4     4.0   63.87
 66. Bowling Green         MAC   88   9-3   6.7- 5.3     1.5   68.65
 67. South Alabama         SUNw  87   8-4   6.7- 5.3     2.6   65.87
 68. Wake Forest           ACC   65   5-7   5.9- 6.1     3.5   53.52
 69. Rice                  AAc   84   8-4   6.6- 5.4     3.0   64.75
 70. Baylor                B12   50   4-8   5.6- 6.4     3.9   49.96
 71. Miami OH              MAC   90   7-5   6.6- 5.4     1.6   65.05
 72. Florida               SEC   40   3-9   5.0- 7.0     4.9   40.42
 73. Minnesota             B10   53   4-8   5.6- 6.4     3.8   49.85
 74. Air Force             MWC   85   8-4   6.7- 5.3     2.3   64.73
 75. Florida Atlantic      AAc   98   8-4   6.9- 5.1     1.6   68.23
 76. Northern Illinois     MAC   95   8-4   6.7- 5.3     1.1   67.22
 77. South Florida         AAc   82   7-5   6.3- 5.7     2.5   60.38
 78. Cincinnati            B12   59   5-7   5.6- 6.4     2.7   50.73
 79. UNLV                  MWC   81   6-6   6.2- 5.8     2.6   57.91
 80. Troy                  SUNw  91   5-7   6.3- 5.7     2.0   60.21
 81. Illinois              B10   64   5-7   5.5- 6.5     1.7   48.51
 82. Georgia Tech          ACC   60   3-9   5.0- 7.0     2.3   39.73
 83. Boston College        ACC   69   5-7   5.2- 6.8     2.0   44.74
 84. Brigham Young         B12   57   4-8   5.0- 7.0     3.0   42.21
 85. Jacksonville St       CUSA 105   8-4   6.3- 5.7     0.9   61.36
 86. Northwestern          B10   66   4-8   5.2- 6.8     1.7   43.78
 87. Army                  AAc  101   5-7   6.0- 6.0     1.0   56.50
 88. Pittsburgh            ACC   74   3-9   5.2- 6.8     1.6   44.20
 89. Arkansas St           SUNw  97   7-5   5.8- 6.2     0.9   54.04
 90. Marshall              SUNe 100   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.8   53.50
 91. San Jose St           MWC   94   3-9   5.6- 6.4     1.7   49.70
 92. Purdue                B10   62   3-9   4.6- 7.4     1.6   35.08
 93. Ohio U.               MAC  111   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.4   58.29
 94. Utah St               MWC   96   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.8   52.05
 95. Western Michigan      MAC  110   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.3   57.80
 96. Virginia              ACC   71   2-10  4.7- 7.3     1.7   37.74
 97. Colorado St           MWC   99   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.6   53.21
 98. Mississippi St        SEC   68   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.9   35.48
 99. Navy                  AAc  102   3-9   5.5- 6.5     0.9   48.71

And finally we get to our first MAC team, Toledo; with the MAC's parity this year there don't look to be many standout teams that could have a really good record, and the Rockets' 7.3 win cumulative projection is the best of the lot. 

Teams in this region have to start worrying about reaching a bowl game, though most are in good shape just because of the sheer amount of bowls that are scheduled. 

                                      Proj Record         Odds
Rnk  Team                 Conf  Str  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% Bowl%
100. Colorado              B12   61   4-8   4.5- 7.5     2.2   35.41
101. Michigan St           B10   75   2-10  4.8- 7.2     1.0   36.94
102. Alabama-Birmingham    AAc  106   6-6   5.6- 6.4     0.6   50.98
103. Stanford              ACC   70   3-9   4.5- 7.5     1.6   33.53
104. Georgia St            SUNe 104   5-7   5.4- 6.6     1.1   47.75
105. Georgia Southern      SUNe 103   4-8   5.2- 6.8     0.7   45.51
106. Central Michigan      MAC  116   7-5   5.8- 6.2     0.3   52.57
107. Tulsa                 AAc  113   3-9   5.3- 6.7     0.3   45.77
108. North Texas           AAc  107   4-8   4.9- 7.1     0.6   40.85
109. New Mexico St         CUSA 115   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.2   46.65
110. Buffalo               MAC  121   5-7   5.6- 6.4     0.1   50.93
111. San Diego St          MWC  108   3-9   5.0- 7.0     0.5   41.99
112. Middle Tennessee St   CUSA 114   5-7   5.2- 6.8     0.2   43.78
113. Hawai`i               MWC  112   4-8   5.2- 6.8     0.2   43.42
114. Eastern Michigan      MAC  126   5-7   5.2- 6.8     0.1   44.96
115. Connecticut           Ind  118   4-8   4.9- 7.1    <0.1   40.22
116. Sam Houston St        CUSA 117   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.2   39.51
117. Old Dominion          SUNe 109   2-10  4.3- 7.7     0.5   32.35
118. Houston               B12   79   2-10  3.6- 8.4     0.5   22.45
119. UTEP                  CUSA 120   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.1   39.06
120. Louisiana Tech        CUSA 125   4-8   5.0- 7.0    <0.1   41.38
121. Vanderbilt            SEC   89   3-9   3.7- 8.3     0.2   20.05
122. Ball St               MAC  119   1-11  4.4- 7.6     0.1   35.11
123. Arizona St            B12   93   0-12  3.2- 8.8     0.2   19.20
124. Southern Miss         SUNw 124   2-10  4.0- 8.0    <0.1   28.24
125. Florida Int'l         CUSA 129   2-10  4.1- 7.9     0.0   30.16
126. Massachusetts         Ind  130   2-10  3.9- 8.1     0.0   21.87
127. UNC-Charlotte         AAc  123   1-11  3.4- 8.6    <0.1   20.80
128. Nevada                MWC  122   1-12  3.7- 9.3    <0.1   17.73
129. Kent St               MAC  132   2-10  3.5- 8.5     0.0   21.14
130. New Mexico            MWC  127   0-12  3.1- 8.9     0.0   18.16
131. Akron                 MAC  133   1-11  3.2- 8.8     0.0   17.91
132. Temple                AAc  128   0-12  3.0- 9.0    <0.1   16.60
133. Louisiana-Monroe      SUNw 131   1-11  2.9- 9.1    <0.1   15.22
134. Kennesaw St           CUSA 134   0-12  2.9- 9.1     0.0   16.23

Most of this last group won't make a bowl game, but there will be some surprise teams for sure. It could be Colorado, who could go 4-8 again, maybe 5-7, and Deion Sanders will probably have to wait until next year for a real breakthrough. 

For the most part, though, the teams here have very little chance of making the Playoff, with 7 teams showing less than 0.1% odds and six teams—FIU, UMass, Kent State, New Mexico, Akron, and newcomer Kennesaw State—not making it in any of 10,000 season simulations. All of those teams are in the bottom 8 in projected Strength so it's probably more notable that Temple and ULM had a miracle season in one of those simulated runs.

2024 Pre-Season Rankings (and Playoff Odds)

It's that time again (very close to the first game kickoff) so without further ado: Pre-season rankings!

See also College Football Playoff Odds / Bowl Odds for a look at where the teams below might end up after playing out their schedule. (I've included the info at the end of this post to preserve it for posterity, so just scroll down).

2024 Pre-season rankings with projected (pure "chalk") record and rating.

Rnk  Team                       Rec    Rating
  1. Oregon                     12-0   37.53
  2. Georgia                    12-0   34.02
  3. Ohio State                 11-1   34.01
  4. Texas                      11-1   29.87
  5. Mississippi                11-1   29.71
  6. Alabama                    10-2   28.17
  7. Notre Dame                 12-0   27.68
  8. Penn State                 11-1   27.33
  9. Oklahoma                   10-2   25.64
 10. Texas A&M                  10-2   22.02
 11. Kansas St                  11-1   20.59
 12. Iowa St                    11-1   20.30
 13. LSU                         8-4   19.32
 14. Missouri                    9-3   19.27
 15. Arizona                     9-3   19.18
 16. Michigan                    9-3   18.90
 17. Oklahoma St                10-2   18.18
 18. Utah                       11-1   18.12
 19. TCU                        10-2   17.23
 20. Louisville                  9-3   17.20
 21. Southern Cal                8-4   16.79
 22. Clemson                     9-3   16.53
 23. Tennessee                   9-3   15.76
 24. Auburn                      6-6   14.99
 25. SMU                        11-1   14.87
 26. Virginia Tech              11-1   14.33
 27. Kentucky                    8-4   14.24
 28. Florida St                  9-3   13.74
 29. Iowa                       10-2   13.57
 30. Central Florida             7-5   13.08
 31. Kansas                      8-4   12.98
 32. Texas Tech                  8-4   12.89
 33. Miami FL                   10-2   12.44
 34. Boise St                   11-1   11.77
 35. Wisconsin                   6-6   10.80
 36. West Virginia               6-6   10.30
 37. Washington                  6-6    9.98
 38. Memphis                    11-1    9.93
 39. UCLA                        4-8    9.83
 40. Florida                     3-9    9.55
 41. North Carolina St           8-4    9.31
 42. Arkansas                    4-8    9.29
 43. South Carolina              4-8    8.98
 44. California                  8-4    8.87
 45. Maryland                    6-6    8.35
 46. North Carolina              9-3    8.06
 47. Nebraska                    8-4    7.33
 48. Rutgers                     7-5    7.10
 49. Indiana                     8-4    6.28
 50. Baylor                      4-8    6.14
 51. Tulane                      9-3    6.01
 52. Liberty                    12-0    5.81
 53. Minnesota                   4-8    5.18
 54. Duke                        4-8    5.04
 55. Washington St               7-5    4.56
 56. Oregon St                   9-3    4.55
 57. Brigham Young               4-8    4.06
 58. Syracuse                    7-5    3.76
 59. Cincinnati                  5-7    3.40
 60. Georgia Tech                3-9    3.38
 61. Colorado                    4-8    3.15
 62. Purdue                      3-9    3.14
 63. Texas-San Antonio          10-2    3.13
 64. Illinois                    5-7    2.96
 65. Wake Forest                 5-7    2.75
 66. Northwestern                4-8    2.20
 67. Fresno St                  10-2    1.93
 68. Mississippi St              4-8    0.86
 69. Boston College              5-7    0.81
 70. Stanford                    3-9    0.26
 71. Virginia                    2-10   0.17
 72. James Madison              10-2    0.02
 73. Appalachian St              8-4   -0.18
 74. Pittsburgh                  3-9   -0.21
 75. Michigan St                 2-10  -0.63
 76. Western Kentucky            9-3   -0.81
 77. Wyoming                     9-3   -1.10
 78. Texas St-San Marcos        10-2   -1.74
 79. Houston                     2-10  -2.05
 80. Louisiana-Lafayette         8-4   -2.48
 81. UNLV                        6-6   -2.59
 82. South Florida               7-5   -3.01
 83. Coastal Carolina           10-2   -3.04
 84. Rice                        8-4   -3.76
 85. Air Force                   8-4   -4.14
 86. East Carolina               9-3   -4.25
 87. South Alabama               8-4   -4.46
 88. Bowling Green               9-3   -4.50
 89. Vanderbilt                  3-9   -4.55
 90. Miami OH                    7-5   -4.62
 91. Troy                        5-7   -5.54
 92. Toledo                      9-3   -5.64
 93. Arizona St                  0-12  -5.78
 94. San Jose St                 3-9   -6.17
 95. Northern Illinois           8-4   -6.38
 96. Utah St                     5-7   -6.77
 97. Arkansas St                 7-5   -7.16
 98. Florida Atlantic            8-4   -7.17
 99. Colorado St                 6-6   -7.74
100. Marshall                    5-7   -8.13
101. Army                        5-7   -8.20
102. Navy                        3-9   -8.21
103. Georgia Southern            4-8   -8.34
104. Georgia St                  5-7   -9.41
105. Jacksonville St             8-4   -9.44
106. Alabama-Birmingham          6-6  -10.24
107. North Texas                 4-8  -10.28
108. San Diego St                3-9  -10.40
109. Old Dominion                2-10 -10.78
110. Western Michigan            6-6  -11.03
111. Ohio U.                     6-6  -11.53
112. Hawai`i                     4-8  -12.41
113. Tulsa                       3-9  -12.53
114. Middle Tennessee St         5-7  -12.97
115. New Mexico St               5-7  -13.02
116. Central Michigan            7-5  -13.55
117. Sam Houston St              5-7  -15.06
118. Connecticut                 4-8  -15.16
119. Ball St                     1-11 -15.27
120. UTEP                        5-7  -15.60
121. Buffalo                     5-7  -15.95
122. Nevada                      1-12 -16.22
123. UNC-Charlotte               1-11 -17.02
124. Southern Miss               2-10 -17.26
125. Louisiana Tech              4-8  -17.52
126. Eastern Michigan            5-7  -17.79
127. New Mexico                  0-12 -18.12
128. Temple                      0-12 -21.90
129. Florida Int'l               2-10 -22.05
130. Massachusetts               2-10 -22.26
131. Louisiana-Monroe            1-11 -22.33
132. Kent St                     2-10 -23.86
133. Akron                       1-11 -24.27
134. Kennesaw St                 0-12 -26.81

Pre-season Playoff Odds for 2024

     Team                 Conf  Proj Record Playoff% Bowl%
  1. Oregon                B10   10.5- 1.5    72.5   98.76
  2. Ohio State            B10   10.1- 1.9    61.6   98.71
  3. Georgia               SEC    9.6- 2.4    57.3   96.36
  4. Notre Dame            Ind    9.9- 2.1    54.5   96.38
  5. Texas                 SEC    9.4- 2.6    50.4   94.72
  6. Mississippi           SEC    9.5- 2.5    49.6   94.78
  7. Penn State            B10    9.3- 2.7    44.3   93.03
  8. Alabama               SEC    8.9- 3.1    43.2   90.95
  9. Oklahoma              SEC    8.3- 3.7    32.8   86.12
 10. Texas A&M             SEC    8.3- 3.7    28.6   84.08
 11. Missouri              SEC    8.5- 3.5    23.8   89.22
 12. Kansas St             B12    8.5- 3.5    27.6   85.78
 13. Iowa St               B12    8.3- 3.7    24.5   83.46
 14. Arizona               B12    8.4- 3.6    20.4   86.00
 15. Utah                  B12    8.1- 3.9    23.0   82.10
 16. Michigan              B10    7.5- 4.5    21.2   77.17
 17. Clemson               ACC    7.8- 4.2    20.3   80.25
 18. Liberty               CUSA   9.5- 2.5    17.6   92.71
 19. Oklahoma St           B12    7.9- 4.1    21.2   79.66
 20. Boise St              MWC    8.7- 3.3    17.5   89.23
 21. LSU                   SEC    7.4- 4.6    22.2   75.29
 22. Louisville            ACC    8.0- 4.0    19.2   81.55
 23. Memphis               AAc    8.8- 3.2    18.9   89.59
 24. SMU                   ACC    8.3- 3.7    18.5   84.14
 25. Virginia Tech         ACC    8.3- 3.7    18.8   82.46
 26. Tennessee             SEC    7.6- 4.4    14.5   79.31
 27. Florida St            ACC    7.2- 4.8    17.3   71.47
 28. TCU                   B12    7.5- 4.5    17.2   75.14
 29. Miami FL              ACC    7.6- 4.4    15.3   76.23
 30. Southern Cal          B10    7.0- 5.0    16.4   68.00
 31. Auburn                SEC    7.1- 4.9    10.2   74.19
 32. Kansas                B12    7.5- 4.5    12.6   75.69
 33. Central Florida       B12    7.4- 4.6    11.5   74.17
 34. Iowa                  B10    7.2- 4.8    11.8   72.18
 35. North Carolina St     ACC    7.5- 4.5    10.7   74.79
 36. Kentucky              SEC    6.9- 5.1     9.2   71.19
 37. Texas Tech            B12    7.3- 4.7    10.0   73.27
 38. North Carolina        ACC    7.5- 4.5     9.4   74.85
 39. Texas-San Antonio     AAc    7.8- 4.2     7.3   81.66
 40. Tulane                AAc    7.6- 4.4     9.5   77.79
 41. James Madison         SUNe   8.0- 4.0     6.6   80.23
 42. Washington St         P12    7.3- 4.7     6.4   74.28
 43. California            ACC    6.8- 5.2     8.1   66.03
 44. Oregon St             P12    7.1- 4.9     5.1   72.49
 45. Texas St-San Marcos   SUNw   7.8- 4.2     5.5   77.08
 46. Washington            B10    6.2- 5.8     6.2   58.93
 47. Fresno St             MWC    7.3- 4.7     5.3   72.88
 48. Western Kentucky      CUSA   7.4- 4.6     3.9   76.16
 49. Maryland              B10    6.4- 5.6     5.2   62.16
 50. Rutgers               B10    6.7- 5.3     5.8   64.60
 51. Indiana               B10    6.8- 5.2     3.8   66.93
 52. Wisconsin             B10    6.1- 5.9     6.7   57.09
 53. Syracuse              ACC    6.7- 5.3     5.2   65.23
 54. Arkansas              SEC    5.9- 6.1     5.6   52.92
 55. Louisiana-Lafayette   SUNw   7.3- 4.7     5.0   72.65
 56. Appalachian St        SUNe   6.8- 5.2     5.5   66.49
 57. West Virginia         B12    5.8- 6.2     7.2   52.86
 58. Duke                  ACC    6.3- 5.7     5.7   60.04
 59. Nebraska              B10    6.2- 5.8     4.5   59.14
 60. UCLA                  B10    5.7- 6.3     5.6   52.17
 61. South Carolina        SEC    5.8- 6.2     4.5   52.23
 62. Coastal Carolina      SUNe   6.9- 5.1     4.2   67.54
 63. Toledo                MAC    7.3- 4.7     2.5   72.18
 64. East Carolina         AAc    7.1- 4.9     3.7   69.44
 65. Wyoming               MWC    6.6- 5.4     4.0   63.87
 66. Bowling Green         MAC    6.7- 5.3     1.5   68.65
 67. South Alabama         SUNw   6.7- 5.3     2.6   65.87
 68. Wake Forest           ACC    5.9- 6.1     3.5   53.52
 69. Rice                  AAc    6.6- 5.4     3.0   64.75
 70. Baylor                B12    5.6- 6.4     3.9   49.96
 71. Miami OH              MAC    6.6- 5.4     1.6   65.05
 72. Florida               SEC    5.0- 7.0     4.9   40.42
 73. Minnesota             B10    5.6- 6.4     3.8   49.85
 74. Air Force             MWC    6.7- 5.3     2.3   64.73
 75. Florida Atlantic      AAc    6.9- 5.1     1.6   68.23
 76. Northern Illinois     MAC    6.7- 5.3     1.1   67.22
 77. South Florida         AAc    6.3- 5.7     2.5   60.38
 78. Cincinnati            B12    5.6- 6.4     2.7   50.73
 79. UNLV                  MWC    6.2- 5.8     2.6   57.91
 80. Troy                  SUNw   6.3- 5.7     2.0   60.21
 81. Illinois              B10    5.5- 6.5     1.7   48.51
 82. Georgia Tech          ACC    5.0- 7.0     2.3   39.73
 83. Boston College        ACC    5.2- 6.8     2.0   44.74
 84. Brigham Young         B12    5.0- 7.0     3.0   42.21
 85. Jacksonville St       CUSA   6.3- 5.7     0.9   61.36
 86. Northwestern          B10    5.2- 6.8     1.7   43.78
 87. Army                  AAc    6.0- 6.0     1.0   56.50
 88. Pittsburgh            ACC    5.2- 6.8     1.6   44.20
 89. Arkansas St           SUNw   5.8- 6.2     0.9   54.04
 90. Marshall              SUNe   5.8- 6.2     0.8   53.50
 91. San Jose St           MWC    5.6- 6.4     1.7   49.70
 92. Purdue                B10    4.6- 7.4     1.6   35.08
 93. Ohio U.               MAC    6.1- 5.9     0.4   58.29
 94. Utah St               MWC    5.7- 6.3     0.8   52.05
 95. Western Michigan      MAC    6.0- 6.0     0.3   57.80
 96. Virginia              ACC    4.7- 7.3     1.7   37.74
 97. Colorado St           MWC    5.8- 6.2     0.6   53.21
 98. Mississippi St        SEC    4.7- 7.3     0.9   35.48
 99. Navy                  AAc    5.5- 6.5     0.9   48.71
100. Colorado              B12    4.5- 7.5     2.2   35.41
101. Michigan St           B10    4.8- 7.2     1.0   36.94
102. Alabama-Birmingham    AAc    5.6- 6.4     0.6   50.98
103. Stanford              ACC    4.5- 7.5     1.6   33.53
104. Georgia St            SUNe   5.4- 6.6     1.1   47.75
105. Georgia Southern      SUNe   5.2- 6.8     0.7   45.51
106. Central Michigan      MAC    5.8- 6.2     0.3   52.57
107. Tulsa                 AAc    5.3- 6.7     0.3   45.77
108. North Texas           AAc    4.9- 7.1     0.6   40.85
109. New Mexico St         CUSA   5.3- 6.7     0.2   46.65
110. Buffalo               MAC    5.6- 6.4     0.1   50.93
111. San Diego St          MWC    5.0- 7.0     0.5   41.99
112. Middle Tennessee St   CUSA   5.2- 6.8     0.2   43.78
113. Hawai`i               MWC    5.2- 6.8     0.2   43.42
114. Eastern Michigan      MAC    5.2- 6.8     0.1   44.96
115. Connecticut           Ind    4.9- 7.1    <0.1   40.22
116. Sam Houston St        CUSA   4.8- 7.2     0.2   39.51
117. Old Dominion          SUNe   4.3- 7.7     0.5   32.35
118. Houston               B12    3.6- 8.4     0.5   22.45
119. UTEP                  CUSA   4.8- 7.2     0.1   39.06
120. Louisiana Tech        CUSA   5.0- 7.0    <0.1   41.38
121. Vanderbilt            SEC    3.7- 8.3     0.2   20.05
122. Ball St               MAC    4.4- 7.6     0.1   35.11
123. Arizona St            B12    3.2- 8.8     0.2   19.20
124. Southern Miss         SUNw   4.0- 8.0    <0.1   28.24
125. Florida Int'l         CUSA   4.1- 7.9     0.0   30.16
126. Massachusetts         Ind    3.9- 8.1     0.0   21.87
127. UNC-Charlotte         AAc    3.4- 8.6    <0.1   20.80
128. Nevada                MWC    3.7- 9.3    <0.1   17.73
129. Kent St               MAC    3.5- 8.5     0.0   21.14
130. New Mexico            MWC    3.1- 8.9     0.0   18.16
131. Akron                 MAC    3.2- 8.8     0.0   17.91
132. Temple                AAc    3.0- 9.0    <0.1   16.60
133. Louisiana-Monroe      SUNw   2.9- 9.1    <0.1   15.22
134. Kennesaw St           CUSA   2.9- 9.1     0.0   16.23

Michigan vs. Washington is the perfect national championship game for the 2023 season

I haven't been happy with the post-season bowl games, as you can see here, but tonight's game is the perfect conclusions: undefeated Michigan vs. undefeated Washington.

It's more than having two undefeated teams, though that is certainly awesome.

The best part is that it's a classic Big Ten vs. Pac-12 clash, and one that would have decided the national title in any of the last 100 years.

If the BCS were still in effect, these are the teams that would have been selected for the national title. There were four undefeated teams; no one would have taken Liberty, and given that Florida State wasn't in the top four it's pretty certain they'd have been left out of the BCS final.

During the Bowl Alliance years, the Fiesta Bowl typically held the national championship—but the Rose Bowl still had the Big Ten and Pac-12 winners, and that's what we have now. The Fiesta Bowl would play 2nd fiddle, with FSU vs. Texas perhaps to stake a claim as runner-up.

And any year before that, when the bowl games were a hodge-podge of linkages between bowls and conferences, and there were scrambles to fill slots even before Thanksgiving, and sometimes a key team would lose and blow a hole in a bowl matchup—even then, the Rose Bowl was a certain thing, and it would have been Michigan vs. Washington and it would have decided the national title.

So here we are, on the brink of the 12-team Playoff that will forever make it less likely that the top two teams will end up playing each other, we can enjoy it happening one last time. And also one last time before the Pac-12 (formerly the Pac-10, and Pac-8, and the PCC) disbands forever or at least emerges in a completely different form. Washington is moving to the Big Ten, along with Oregon, UCLA, and USC, so many of the great Rose Bowl games of the past take place in conference play.

For now though, we have one last Rose Bowl—even if it's not called that—and one last classic matchup before college football completes its recent transformation into something new.