SportsRatings

How did 1-seed odds change after the big weekend showdowns? Not surprisingly Duke took over as projected top overall seed after beating Michigan 68-63 on a neutral court. They jumped past the 90% mark for 1-seeds while the Wolverines slipped a bit but still have a solid 91.5% chance themselves. Arizona added 7.7% and is also considered a near-lock for a 1-seed after beating Houston on the road 73-66. The Cougars took it on the chin last week losing to Iowa State 70-67 in Ames and then falling to the Wildcats, and as a result were down nearly 10% in 1-seed odds to 23.2%. Iowa State claimed the last 1-seed spot but it's precarious at 41.7%, down a bit after their loss to BYU on Saturday.  Dance Chance for games through Feb. 22 (chg/prv since Feb. 15):                                Record At-lg Conf Seed Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk % Odds % ...

The Selection Committee put out their top 4 seeds today, and it was kind of a surprise at the top with Iowa State taking the 4th 1-seed. Michigan was the overall 1-seed. Michigan Duke Arizona Iowa State This happens to match the Dance Chance's latest projections: Dance Chance for games through Feb. 18, 2026 (chg/prv since Feb. 15):                                Record At-lg Conf Seed Win Lose Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed Proj Prev Out Out 1. Michigan B10 25-1 30-1 100.0 0.0 64.7 96.1 1 1 1 2 2. Duke ACC 24-2 28-3 100.0 0.0 56.4 88.2 1 1 1 2 3. Arizona B12 24-2 29-2 100.0 +0.1 41.6 81.8 1 1 1 2 4. Iowa St. B12 23-3 27-4 100.0 +0.1 26.3 53.0 1 2 1 3 5. Houston B12 23-3 26-5 ...

The Big Twelve is the most competitive conference at the top, with Arizona, Iowa State, and Houston all big-time contenders for a 1-seed. Iowa State just beat Houston; Houston plays Arizona on Saturday. Right now Arizona is among the most certain 1-seeds in the country, with Iowa State and Houston close behind, according to the Dance Chance (through 2/18/2026):                                Record At-lg Conf Seed Win Lose Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed Proj Prev Out Out 1. Michigan B10 25-1 30-1 100.0 0.0 64.7 96.1 1 1 1 2 2. Duke ACC 24-2 28-3 100.0 0.0 56.4 88.2 1 1 1 2 3. Arizona B12 24-2 29-2 100.0 +0.1 41.6 81.8 1 1 1 2 4. Iowa St. B12 23-3 27-4 100.0 +0.1 26.3 53.0 1 2 1 3 5. Houston ...

Normally the Final Four is on the Saturday two days before the national championship game; this year's Final Four is scheduled for April 4th at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Yes, it's March Madness but the Final Four isn't until April. Unless you count this Saturday, February 21st. In Washington, DC and Houston, TX at least three and probably four consensus 1-seeds will face off. They are the top four teams in the current AP poll and the projected 1-seeds in the current Dance Chance, not to mention the top four teams at Kenpom.com. Dance Chance for games through Feb. 15, 2026 (chg/prv since Feb. 8):                                Record At-lg Conf Win Lose Seed Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed Out Out Proj Prv 1. Michigan B10 24-1 30-1 100.0 +0.1 63.5 94.4 1 3 1 1 2. Duke ACC 23...

We have a brand NEW FEATURE for the Dance Chance. Ever wonder where your team would land on Selection Sunday if they won the rest of their games? Or, lost out? Well here you go. This assumes all other games outside a team's sphere play out exactly as expected, so variations from other teams make a big different (especially for the 1-seed line). But with that caviat, here's this week's Dance Chance rundown: Dance Chance for games through Feb. 15, 2026 (chg/prv since Feb. 8): (note that two days worth of games have been played since this projection)                                Record At-lg Conf Win Lose Seed Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed Out Out Proj Prv 1. Michigan B10 24-1 30-1 100.0 +0.1 63.5 94.4 1 3 1 1 2. Duke ACC 23-2 28-3 100.0 +0.1 54.5 84.3 1 2 1 1 ...

Still the dominant trio at the top, but Gonzaga's luck as a 1-seed finally ran out despite beating St. Mary's. Iowa State's 95-61 win at Kansas State pushed them to a projected 1-seed, with their 1-seed odds nearing 50% while the Zags' odds fall to 12%, 8th in line despite their #5 projection. Michigan regains the top overall seed by a sliver after beating Michigan State on the road—and Nebraska at home before that,                                   Record At-lg Seed Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk % Odds Chg% 1-seed Chg % Proj Prv 1. Michigan B10 20-1 28-3 30-1 >99.9 0.0 88.5 +4.5 1 1 2. Arizona B12 22-0 29-2 31-0 >99.9 0.0 82.8 +2.3 1 1 3. Duke ACC 20-1 28-3 29-2 >99.9 0.0 81.4 +6.7 1 1 4. Iowa St. B12 20-2 27-4 28-...