2026 Dance Chance week 13: Iowa State stakes claim to 1-seed

Still the dominant trio at the top, but Gonzaga's luck as a 1-seed finally ran out despite beating St. Mary's. Iowa State's 95-61 win at Kansas State pushed them to a projected 1-seed, with their 1-seed odds nearing 50% while the Zags' odds fall to 12%, 8th in line despite their #5 projection. Michigan regains the top overall seed by a sliver after beating Michigan State on the road—and Nebraska at home before that, 

                                   Record        At-lg                     Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds  Chg% 1-seed  Chg% Proj Prv
  1. Michigan             B10  20-1  28-3  30-1  >99.9   0.0  88.5  +4.5   1    1 
  2. Arizona              B12  22-0  29-2  31-0  >99.9   0.0  82.8  +2.3   1    1 
  3. Duke                 ACC  20-1  28-3  29-2  >99.9   0.0  81.4  +6.7   1    1 
  4. Iowa St.             B12  20-2  27-4  28-3   99.9  +1.3  48.8 +15.9   1    2 
  5. Gonzaga              WCC  22-1  29-2  30-1   99.7  +0.4  12.0  -5.9   2    1 
  6. Illinois             B10  19-3  26-5  26-5   99.7  +1.8  22.1  +7.9   2    2 
  7. Connecticut          BE   21-1  28-3  29-2   98.8  +1.7  12.2  +0.5   2    2 
  8. Houston              B12  19-2  26-5  25-6   98.5  +2.2  18.1  +2.8   2    3 

Our projection still isn't sold on UConn as a 1-seed; Houston has better odds since the Big Twelve offers more opportunity. Illinois also saw their 1-seed odds rise quite a bit after beating Nebraska on the road, while the Cornhuskers' 2nd loss of the week drops them to a 3-seed.

Purdue remains there despite a loss to Indiana early in the week. Florida is up 2 seeds after a 100-77 win over Alabama, and Vanderbilt rises a seed no doubt due to their 25-point win over Kentucky. 

                                   Record        At-lg                     Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds  Chg% 1-seed  Chg% Proj Prv
  9. Purdue               B10  18-4  24-7  25-6   97.7  +1.8   7.7  -2.1   3    3 
 10. Nebraska             B10  20-2  27-4  28-3   96.9  +0.1   4.8  -8.4   3    2 
 11. Florida              SEC  16-6  23-8  25-6   96.7  +8.1   1.3  +0.6   3    5 
 12. Vanderbilt           SEC  19-3  25-6  27-4   95.5  +3.2   3.9  +0.6   3    4 
 13. Kansas               B12  16-5  22-9  22-9   95.3  +5.4   6.2  +1.1   4    4 
 14. Texas Tech           B12  16-5  22-9  23-8   94.4  -0.1   2.4  -4.7   4    3 
 15. Michigan St.         B10  19-3  25-6  26-5   93.9  -1.3   2.8  -7.9   4    3 
 16. BYU                  B12  17-4  24-7  25-6   92.2  -1.3   4.2  -8.9   4    4 

Michigan State drops a seed due to the Michigan loss, maybe a bit unfair but that's a lot of potential gain they "lost." Texas Tech also got beat by UCF and drops a seed. BYU remains a 4-seed despite losing to Arizona and Kansas last week; the Cougars and the Jayhawks just switched position within the same seed line. Texas Tech played Kansas tonight—and lost—but that's not included here.

That's the top four seeds, now the big movers in the rest of the field. Tennessee and Texas A&M both beat Georgia last week, both in Athens too. That dropped the Bulldogs a seed (-10.5%) and bumped the Vols up to a 5-seed. Wisconsin rose double digits following 2 Big Ten wins. 

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf   Total          Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds  Chg% Champ  %Odds 1-seed Proj Prv
 18. Tennessee            SEC  15-6  22-9  23-8   87.8  +8.8   8.1   88.8   0.1   5    6 
 25. Texas A&M            SEC  17-4  23-8  23-8   76.7  +7.5   7.1   78.3  <0.1   7    7 
 27. N.C. State           ACC  16-6  21-10 22-9   72.9  +7.6  11.7   76.1  <0.1   7    8 
 30. Wisconsin            B10  16-6  20-11 18-13  66.4 +10.4   5.1   68.1         8    9 
 31. Georgia              SEC  16-6  21-10 22-9   66.1 -10.5   8.5   69.0         8    7 
 34. UCF                  B12  17-4  22-8  23-7   64.9 +10.1   6.4   67.1         9   10 
 35. Utah St.             MWC  18-3  25-6  27-4   64.4  +6.4  17.0   70.5         9    9 
 36. SMU                  ACC  15-6  22-9  23-8   63.9  -3.9   7.9   66.8         9    7 
 37. Indiana              B10  15-7  20-11 20-11  63.2 +20.0   6.2   65.5        10   11p 

UCF was also up over 10% after beating Texas Tech. But the big winner this week was Indiana, a projected play-in team last week. The Hoosiers upset Purdue 72-67 then outlasted UCLA on the road in double overtime. They're up 20% to a 10-seed.

Below, behold the bubble, or rather the teams that are just above the waterline. There's a huge gap between Indiana (the top 10-seed) and Saint Mary's, the 2nd 10-seed, so it's a natural break for the bubble. St. Mary's of course lost to Gonzaga, which more than anything took away a potential game-changer for their seeding. Miami got upset by Cal at home which doesn't help their shaky odds. New Mexico got two double-digit wins that helped them project as the MWC tournament winner this week, so their questionable 52% at-large odds might not matter.

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf  Total   Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds Proj Prv
 38. Saint Mary's         WCC  19-4  25-6  26-5   53.8  -2.2  17.5   61.9  10   10 
 39. Miami FL             ACC  17-5  22-9  22-9   53.1  -4.8   7.6   56.6  10    9 
 40. New Mexico           MWC  18-4  24-7  26-5   52.2  +2.6  17.8   60.7  10   10 
 41. Texas                SEC  13-9  18-13 18-13  47.5  +1.2   5.0   50.1  11   10 
 42. UCLA                 B10  15-7  19-12 20-11  46.8  +2.7   4.0   48.9  11p  11 
 43. California           ACC  16-6  21-10 21-10  40.1  +4.3   4.4   42.7  11p     
 44. San Diego St.        MWC  15-6  21-9  21-9   39.9  +1.5  13.8   48.2  11p  11p
 45. Tulsa                Amer 19-3  26-5  27-4   38.6  +2.9  18.8   50.2  11   11 
 46. Ohio St.             B10  14-7  19-12 19-12  37.8  -3.6   4.3   40.5  11p  11p

The rest of the high-bubble moved very little; Texas split games with Auburn (L) and Oklahoma (W); UCLA as noted lost to Indiana following their win at Oregon; San Diego State beat Colorado State and lost to Utah State; Tulsa got two low-leverage home wins in the American; and Ohio State beat Penn State and lost to Wisconsin. When bubble teams split games like that, they tend to remain steady. The exception above is Cal, who jumps into the seedings by upsetting Miami despite their loss to FSU before. They were just below the line last week.

Speaking of below the line, here are the hopefuls. Seton Hall is first team out after stabilizing themselves with two wins after a 4-game skid. Santa Clara has won six in a row but their hopes will depend on games vs. St. Mary's and especially Gonzaga. USC almost made a miracle comeback at Iowa but lost by a point. And Oklahoma State beat Utah in their sole game last week.

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf  Total   Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds Proj Prv
 47. Seton Hall           BE   16-6  21-10 20-11  37.1  +6.4  10.6   43.8          
 48. Santa Clara          WCC  19-5  24-7  24-7   33.7  +6.5  17.7   45.4          
 49. USC                  B10  16-6  20-11 18-13  33.5  +3.3   2.7   35.3          
 50. Oklahoma St.         B12  15-6  19-12 17-14  33.3  +5.8   3.1   35.4          
 51. Akron                MAC  18-4  26-5  27-4   32.2  -0.1  19.5   45.4  12   12 
 52. Virginia Tech        ACC  16-7  19-12 19-12  30.6  -1.8   4.1   33.4          
 53. Miami OH             MAC  22-0  29-2  31-0   27.6  -1.0  17.9   40.6          
 54. Washington           B10  12-10 18-13 19-12  27.5  +5.1   4.9   31.0          
 55. VCU                  A10  16-6  22-9  24-7   26.4  -0.1  15.1   37.5          

MAC situation: Akron still projects as the conference winner, and they've won 8 in a row. Miami of Ohio has won 22 in a row now but still dips a bit in odds. They're now projected to go around 29-2 and it's still not enough to get them over the hump...yet. 

High-leverage outcomes below, and all on the downside. TCU was in the field—barely—last week but losses to Houston and Colorado (mainly the loss to Colorado) dump them below the 2nd Four Out. Butler got hit even harder though, down 16.5% with losses to St. John's and Georgetown; they share TCU's 13-9 record. Creighton is even worse at 12-10, and their odds are down to 6.2% after falling to a dismal Marquette and a thriving UConn. 

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf  Total   Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds Proj Prv
 56. TCU                  B12  13-9  18-13 18-13  26.2 -11.3   3.9   29.1      11p
 62. Butler               BE   13-9  18-13 19-12  18.3 -16.5   9.4   26.0         
 63. LSU                  SEC  14-8  17-14 16-15  18.0 -11.0   1.7   19.4          
 70. Yale                 Ivy  16-4  23-5  24-4   10.5 -11.3  29.8   37.2  12  12 
 77. Creighton            BE   12-10 16-15 17-14   6.2 -15.7   6.3   12.1         

LSU went 1-1 and it didn't prevent an 11% drop to 18%, as they lost to Ole Miss at home by 14, and needed overtime to beat South Carolina. Probably the biggest upset though was Yale losing to 12-9 Harvard at home. Yale's at-large chances were never great, but that one might close the door realistically.