Week 2 Recap: Oregon Goes Down

Ok Week 2 ended a few days back but let's look at the ramifications in terms of Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds:

The big game saw Texas beating Ohio State 24-23 and while the Longhorns soared to #3 as a result, the Buckeyes' Playoff chances really didn't take much of a hit. They were down 3.2% but only dropped two spots and are firmly in the top 11. Texas gained over 12% to easily top 50%, with only Notre Dame and Indiana being over that mark too. Both of those teams won in blowouts, by a combined 107-0. The Irish added 1.4% to both Playoff and National title odds, while Indiana gained in the former but dropped 2% in the latter. Miami jumped to #4 with their 2nd huge win; the Canes have yet to give up a touchdown on defense. But Penn State fell to #5 after only beating Temple 27-9; their 3% drop in Playoff Odds was almost the same as Ohio State's drop, without losing!

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
  1   1. Notre Dame        Ind  2-0 12-0 11.0-1.0  78.0  +1.4  51.5  99.7  +0.0 17.1 +1.4
  2   2. Indiana          *B10  2-0 12-0 10.3-1.7  60.4  +2.0  34.1  98.8  +0.7  8.2 -2.0
  8   3. Texas            *SEC  2-0 11-1  9.1-2.9  55.8 +12.1  29.5  91.5  +6.3 10.1 +2.1
  6   4. Miami FL         *ACC  2-0 11-1  9.6-2.4  46.0  +6.8  22.7  96.4  +2.2  4.6 +1.2
  3   5. Penn State        B10  2-0 12-0  9.9-2.1  44.3  -3.0  15.1  97.4  +1.6  2.6 -2.6
 10   6. Texas A&M         SEC  2-0 12-0  9.1-2.9  48.5  +6.7  24.1  92.6  +4.3  8.8 +1.4
  5   7. Ohio State        B10  1-1 10-2  8.7-3.3  40.9  -3.2  17.5  91.5  +0.9  5.8 -0.7
  7   8. Texas Tech       *B12  2-0 12-0  9.6-2.4  41.7  +0.8  19.6  94.5  +0.7  3.6 +0.4
 11   9. Georgia           SEC  2-0 11-1  8.9-3.1  42.4  +3.2  18.0  89.6  +2.5  5.6 +0.5
  9  10. Mississippi       SEC  2-0 10-2  8.5-3.5  38.8  -0.4  15.9  87.0  -1.8  4.2 -1.6
 12  11. LSU               SEC  2-0  8-4  8.2-3.8  33.0  +1.4  13.4  83.9  +0.2  3.6 +0.4

Texas Tech held steady as the Big Twelve favorite despite a very shaky win (35-24) over Oregon State. The Raiders fell in our power rating but avoid some of the best B12 competition in the regular season (they do face Houston next week). The rest of the Playoff zone is the SEC. #6 Texas A&M is Texas' main competition for the SEC title and shows higher odds (8.8% to 8.2%) to win the national title. #9 Georgia also gained this week after crushing Western Kentucky 70-20. Mississippi slumped to #10 while LSU at #11 is a new entry in the Playoff race, our first exchange from the pre-season group. The two teams face each other this Saturday.

LSU was able to rise that one spot due to Oregon's huge upset loss to Oklahoma State. The Ducks dropped from #4 to #15 and she 24.5 of their original 47.2%, more than a 50% drop. They're still favored to go 10-2 but their cume record fell from 9.4 to 8.0 wins. Their national title odds were cut to 1/3 of what they were before. The Ducks have yet to play a really good game. Are they good enough to battle their way back into the Playoff, or will they drop out of the projected Top 25?

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 18  12. Alabama           SEC  2-0  8-4  8.3-3.7  31.8  +8.6  12.1  84.7  +9.4  3.0 +1.2
 21  13. Brigham Young     B12  2-0 10-2  8.4-3.6  26.9  +7.0  11.4  85.0  +6.7  1.7 +0.9
 15  14. Virginia          ACC  2-0 11-1  8.9-3.1  23.8  +2.7   6.9  89.6  +2.5  1.2 +0.4
  4  15. Oregon            B10  1-1 10-2  8.0-4.0  22.7 -24.5   6.0  85.0  -8.4  1.7 -3.4
 14  16. Southern Cal      B10  3-0  8-4  8.0-4.0  23.2  -1.0   8.0  83.6  +2.1  1.1 -0.7
 27  17. Utah              B12  2-0 11-1  8.4-3.6  24.2  +7.6   9.1  84.0  +9.4  1.2 +0.7
 17  18. North Dakota St  *MWC  3-0 12-0  9.8-2.2  17.7  -0.1   0.3  96.5  +5.4  0.1 +0.0

Most of the other teams above did well for themselves, with Alabama, BYU, and Virginia rising after wins and knocking on the door of the Playoff. USC was the exception, giving up 30 points to Louisiana, but Utah is looking really good after crushing Arkansas 43-10 and they join the top 25 for the first time this year. A more stealthy important game last week was North Dakota State's 38-32 win at Air Force, which kept the Bison the top G6 team in line for the Playoff.

Michigan battled their way right back into the Top 25 with a 17-10 win at Oklahoma, regaining almost all the Playoff Odds they lost by nearly losing to Western Michigan. SMU and Houston notched blowout wins over FBS teams while Pittsburgh struggled to beat UCF 12-7 but basically held steady; UCF is #34 in our power rating so that isn't seen as a bad result. 

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 19  19. SMU               ACC  2-0 10-2  8.4-3.6  18.7  +3.3   5.7  87.5  +4.4  0.6 +0.2
 30  20. Michigan          B10  2-0  8-4  7.9-4.1  19.6  +7.1   5.9  82.8 +13.7  0.6 +0.1
 20  21. Pittsburgh        ACC  2-0  9-3  8.6-3.4  17.1  +0.6   4.8  89.1  +5.0  0.7 -0.1
 23  22. Houston           B12  2-0  9-3  8.3-3.7  21.4  +5.8   7.6  84.7  +2.5  1.3 +0.8
 24  23. Tennessee         SEC  2-0 10-2  7.9-4.1  23.6  +3.4   8.2  80.5  +7.0  1.9 +0.5
 26  24. Kansas St         B12  2-0 12-0  8.5-3.5  22.2  +6.3   6.5  84.2  +7.0  1.1 +0.6
 22  25. Louisville        ACC  1-1 11-1  8.0-4.0  17.7  +1.6   4.0  82.2  +2.5  1.0 +0.1

Tennessee and Louisville won big and stay in the Top 25, but what's going on with Kansas State? The Wildcats join the Top 25 after beating Washington State 34-7 and are now favored to go 12-0! Most of that is from a kind schedule, and being a 51% favorite in several games (hence the 8-4 cume estimate), but add them to the long list of Big Twelve hopefuls (5 in the Top 25).

Three teams dropped out of the projected Top 25. Oklahoma lost the big game at home to Michigan and the Sooners fall out of the top 25. The writing is on the wall: last year a loss to Ohio State prevented Texas from making the Playoff, and with a tough SEC schedule the Sooners are in the same boat. But it means they still control their destiny, they are still 11th in odds to win the national title. Washington managed to fall from the Top 25 without losing, as their 16-14 win over lowly Utah State took the wind out of their sails in our power rating. Their expected wins actually dropped—from 7.8 to 7.6—despite adding an actual win. Boise State also slipped from the Top 25; suddenly, a close loss to Oregon doesn't look so amazing.  

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 13  26. Oklahoma          SEC  1-1  8-4  7.1-4.9  20.4 -12.3   5.8  72.7  -6.0  3.2 -0.9
 25  27. Boise St         *P12  1-1 11-1  8.2-3.8  16.3  +0.5   0.3  84.8  +4.3  0.4 +0.0
 35  28. Duke              ACC  2-0  9-3  8.0-4.0  10.8  +2.8   2.3  82.8 +11.4  0.1 +0.0
 31  29. James Madison    *SUNe 2-0 11-1  8.7-3.3  13.9  +4.5   0.7  86.7  +4.2  0.1 +0.1
 16  31. Washington        B10  2-0  8-4  7.6-4.4  11.7  -8.5   2.7  80.1  -0.1  0.2 -0.8
 34  32. Virginia Tech     ACC  2-0  9-3  7.6-4.4  12.7  +1.5   3.2  76.7  +6.2  0.3 -0.1
 36  33. UCLA              B10  2-0  8-4  7.6-4.4  10.7  +0.4   1.3  77.9  +8.7  0.1 +0.0
 49  34. Missouri          SEC  2-0  7-5  6.9-5.1  13.9  +4.9   3.7  67.8 +12.0  0.9 +0.5
 33  38. South Carolina    SEC  2-0  6-6  6.9-5.1  13.2  -0.1   3.0  67.1  -0.5  0.7 -0.2
 40  44. Florida           SEC  2-0  6-6  6.4-5.6  10.0  -0.1   2.2  60.7  +0.7  0.4 -0.2

Every other team above has over 10% Playoff Odds, and most added to those odds last week. Duke won at Illinois after losing 45-19 at home last year. James Madison beat Wagner 87-3(!) and remains the Sun Belt favorite. Virginia Tech and UCLA were far less impressive but notched wins. Missouri beat Kansas in a pretty high-leverage game for the two teams, adding 12% to their bowl odds, while South Carolina and Florida stayed unbeaten. 

The only other 10%+ team is South Florida, the current favorite in the parity-ridden American Athletic. USF beat Army to gain that distinction, but there are a lot of other competitors.

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 38  30. South Florida    *AAc  2-0 10-2  8.6-3.4  10.6  +3.6   0.3  88.3 +11.3 <0.1 +0.0
 61  36. North Texas       AAc  1-1  7-5  7.7-4.3   7.7  +4.9   0.1  80.2 +14.2 <0.1 +0.0
 29  37. Memphis           AAc  2-1  8-4  7.7-4.3   5.5  -4.1  <0.1  82.0  -0.4 <0.1 +0.0
 57  40. UTSA              AAc  2-0 10-2  7.6-4.4   8.2  +3.6   0.5  77.6 +10.2  0.0 +0.0
 46  43. Tulane            AAc  1-1  9-3  7.0-5.0   6.9  +1.0   0.1  71.1  +2.9 <0.1 +0.0
 32  45. Army              AAc  1-1 10-2  7.2-4.8   6.9  -6.2   0.1  72.7  -4.8  0.1 +0.0
 43  67. Navy              AAc  1-1  8-4  6.3-5.7   2.6  -4.9   0.1  61.7  -9.6 <0.1 +0.0

North Texas beat UNLV 44-6 and is a clear contender in the AAC. Memphis was the highest-ranked in the league before they lost to Boise State last week. UTSA also joined the top ranks with a win over Texas State that suggests a 10-2 finish is possible. Tulane bounced back with a win while Navy fell to Florida Atlantic, hurting our prognostication for their season.

Western Michigan remained the MAC favorite as their evened their record to 1-1 and the Michigan "loss" looks even better now. Liberty also rose to 1-1 and remained the CUSA fave. The big winner below last week was Mississippi State, who travelled to Minnesota and came out 38-13 winners. Since Texas-Ohio State and Michigan-Oklahoma were tight contests, that result more than any other propped the SEC and hurt the Big Ten, and the Bulldogs look like they may go bowling this year. 

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 47  46. Western Michigan *MAC  1-1  9-3  7.6-4.4   3.1  +0.3   0.0  79.6  +5.4 <0.1 +0.0
 82  49. Mississippi St    SEC  2-0  4-8  6.2-5.8   6.7  +2.9   1.3  57.2 +15.9  0.4 +0.3
 45  53. Liberty          *CUSA 1-1 11-1  7.5-4.5   1.3  -0.3   0.0  76.7  +0.3  0.0 +0.0
 50  71. Kansas            B12  1-1  6-6  5.8-6.2   3.2  -3.8   0.3  52.2 -12.0  0.1 +0.0
 99  74. Appalachian St    SUNe 2-0  5-7  6.7-5.3   2.6  +1.5  <0.1  64.1 +11.9  0.0 +0.0
105  77. Florida Atlantic  AAc  1-1  6-6  6.2-5.8   1.1  +0.4   0.0  59.1 +11.7  0.0 +0.0
 54  81. UNLV              MWC  1-2  6-6  5.9-6.1   0.2  -3.9   0.0  57.2 -11.3  0.0 +0.0
 76  98. East Carolina     AAc  0-2  6-6  5.3-6.7   0.4  -2.0   0.0  49.2 -12.4  0.0 +0.0

Kansas and Missouri were neck and neck last week with a pick'em game coming up; the Jayhawks lost that game 38-21 and dropped to near 50% Bowl odds. FAU's upset of Navy has the Owls thinking bowl game, while UNLV's big loss to North Texas has their bowl future stock falling. Appalachian State upset East Carolina and improved their outlook while the Pirates plummeted to below 50%.

The biggest upside story was the mirror of the biggest fall. Oklahoma State, who lost last year to Oregon 69-3 and even dropped their first game to Tulsa this year, somehow managed to beat Oregon 39-31. Their bowl odds more than doubled as a result and they jumped from near-cellar #136 to #99. It will take some time to sort out whether this was a fluke, or Oregon is terrible, or Oklahoma State has potential. For now their outlook is still just 2-10 game by game, and maybe 5-7 with further upsets, but who knows maybe the Big Twelve has a new competitor? 

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
136  99. Oklahoma St       B12  1-1  2-10 4.7-7.3   0.7  +0.6  <0.1  33.8 +17.0  0.0 +0.0
 71 101. Minnesota         B10  1-1  4-8  5.0-7.0   0.6  -3.4  <0.1  40.4 -13.6  0.0 -0.1
 81 106. Arkansas          SEC  1-1  2-10 4.2-7.8   1.3  -2.8   0.1  28.1 -12.4 <0.1 +0.0
 98 112. Syracuse          ACC  1-1  3-9  4.4-7.6   0.5  -1.4   0.0  31.2 -11.0 <0.1 +0.0
 90 118. Kennesaw St       CUSA 1-1  4-8  5.1-6.9   0.1  -1.0   0.0  43.3 -15.1  0.0 +0.0
117 130. Sacramento St     MAC  1-2  3-9  4.6-7.4   0.0  -0.1   0.0  34.8 -10.0  0.0 +0.0

The rest of the list has dwindling prospects, from Minnesota (upset by Miss. State) and Arkansas (crushed by Utah), to Syracuse (lost at home to California), Kennesaw State (lost at home to Georgia State), and Sacramento State (lost 49-3 to Fresno State).