Week 3: How the (Final, Projected) Top 25 Fared

Here is how our Projected Final Committee Top 25 fared during the week of Sept. 19, 2026.

Key:
Green = Won, beat SR spread
Black: Won, lost vs. spread
Purple: Lost, beat spread
Red: Lost, lost vs. spread

                             Record   Playoff
 Rnk Team              Conf 9/13 Proj  Odds  9/19 weekend (Vegas / SR spread)
  1. Notre Dame        Ind  2-0  12-0  78.0  Mich St (+29.5 / +51)     ND 27-10 (-34)
  2. Indiana          *B10  2-0  12-0  60.4  Western KY (+44.5 / +53)  IND 38-0 (-15)
  3. Texas            *SEC  2-0  11-1  55.8  UTSA (+30.5 / +37)        TEX 30-6 (-13)
  4. Miami FL         *ACC  2-0  11-1  46.0 @Wake Forest (+20.5 / +21)  MIA 33-20 (-8) 
  5. Penn State        B10  2-0  12-0  44.3  Buffalo (+40.5 / +51)   PENNST 55-13 (-9)
  6. Texas A&M         SEC  2-0  12-0  48.5  Kentucky (+16.5 / +31)   KY 31-21 (-41)
  7. Ohio State        B10  1-1  10-2  40.9  Kent State (+52.5 / +59)   OSU 59-3 (-3)
  8. Texas Tech       *B12  2-0  12-0  41.7  #22 Houston (+7.5 / +11)   TXT 28-26 (-9)
  9. Georgia           SEC  2-0  11-1  42.4 @Arkansas (+24.5 / +21)     GA 45-17 (+7)
 10. Mississippi       SEC  2-0  10-2  38.8  LSU (-3 / +9)           MISS 32-24 (-1)
 11. LSU               SEC  2-0   8-4  33.0 @Mississippi (+3 / -9)   MISS 32-24 (+1)
 12. Alabama           SEC  2-0   8-4  31.8  FSU (+19.5 / +15)       BAMA 50-36 (-1)
 13. Brigham Young     B12  2-0  10-2  26.9 @Colo St (+17.5 / +29)   BYU 41-23 (-11)
 14. Virginia          ACC  2-0  11-1  23.8 =West VA (+10.5 / +15)    WVA 38-27 (-26)
 15. Oregon            B10  1-1  10-2  22.7  Portland St (+57.5 / +59)  ORE 84-0 (+25)
 16. Southern Cal      B10  3-0   8-4  23.2 @Rutgers (+23.5 / +21)     USC 42-35 (-14)
 17. Utah              B12  2-0  11-1  24.2  Utah St (+27.5 / +23)     UTAH 33-0 (+10)
 18. North Dakota St  *MWC  3-0  12-0  17.7 @Sac St (+27.5 / +23)      NDAK 31-10 (-2)
 19. SMU               ACC  2-0  10-2  18.7 @#25 Louisville (-1.5/-7)  LOU 41-31 (-3)
 20. Michigan          B10  2-0   8-4  19.6  UTEP (+35.5 / +43)        MICH 52-17 (-8)
 21. Pittsburgh        ACC  2-0   9-3  17.1  Syracuse (+10.5 / +19)    PITT 27-13 (-5) 
 22. Houston           B12  2-0   9-3  21.4 @#8 Tex Tech (-7.5 / -11)   TXT 28-26 (+9)
 23. Tennessee         SEC  2-0  10-2  23.6  Kennesaw St (+35.5 / +39)  TENN 42-9 (-6)
 24. Kansas St         B12  2-0  12-0  22.2  Tulane (+20.5 / +17)    KSTATE 31-20 (-6)
 25. Louisville        ACC  1-1  11-1  17.7  #19 SMU (+1.5 / +7)     LOU 41-31 (+3)

Thursday and Friday

#21 Pittsburgh played Thursday night and beat Syracuse 27-13, which topped the Vegas spread but didn't match our expectation for the Panthers. Not a deal-breaker in terms of Playoff Odds, I wouldn't think.

#4 Miami played Friday night and they might have dinged themselves a bit. After not giving up a touchdown on offense in two games the Canes gave up three while still winning 33-20. Both Vegas and SportsRatings wanted a 3-touchdown margin but again, their status as ACC favorite remains intact.

#8 Texas Tech 28, #22 Houston 26 - One of the biggest games of the week was on Friday night, too, an important Big Twelve clash where Texas Tech held off Houston 28-26 as the Cougars failed a tying 2-point attempt late. Getting the win is enough to keep Texas Tech where they are, I would think, while Houston technically outperformed and shouldn't fall too far outside the Top 25 if at all.

#15 Oregon sought to redeem themselves against Portland State and as expected took their first-two-weeks frustrations out on them, leading 49-0 at the half and 70-0 early in the 4th quarter. It ended 84-0, beating both Vegas and SportsRatings' enormous lines. Yes, Oregon will move up for blowing out Portland State, but we'll find out how much of that transfers to real opposition when they go to USC next week.

Saturday 4:00pm EST

Early games include Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State, and Kansas State.

#5 Penn State beat Buffalo by 42, and a goal line stand at the end of the game saved anyone who bet on the Lions at - 40.5, but they didn't match our bloated line. It won't make too much difference to our power ratings though.

#9 Georgia gave up a TD at the end but it didn't matter to Vegas as they beat Arkansas 45-17, surpassing our 21 point expectation as well. 

#7 Ohio State was a 52.5 point favorite by Vegas but our output had them winning 59-0, and they were up 59-0 until a late interception led to a Kent State field goal. Bettors were unaffected but we didn't get a perfect score prediction, dammit.

#24 Kansas State beat Tulane 31-20, a bit shy of their "target." K-State is favored in every game but some are VERY close, and even this result might flip one or two back to an "L" That won't matter at all in our simulation however, just for the "Chalk" record we show for the Wildcats.

Another interesting final: Iowa State 55, Bowling Green 7. We had them by 23 and along with their near-win at Iowa, the Cyclones are doing much better than expected this season.

7:30pm EST

#25 Louisville 41, #19 SMU 31 - The Cardinals kept their Playoff hopes alive by beating SMU and not taking their 2nd loss. 

#16 USC 42-35 over Rutgers - This was a trap game a lot like Oregon at Oklahoma State. Rutgers has been so bad that USC came in wayyyy overconfident and almost payed the price. But unlike Oregon they closed the deal and came out with a win, saving their season. They'll drop in the short run but over the long run this will be nothing more than a speed bump if they have success.

#17 Utah beat Utah State 33-0, continuing their outperformance (remember Washington just beat Utah State 16-14).

#20 Michigan pulled away from UTEP 52-17, roughly in line with the spreads (just shy).

#2 Indiana beat Western Kentucky 38-0, not quite the 53 points we wanted or the 43.5 Vegas did.

But the big upset today was Kentucky 31, #6 Texas A&M 21. Given the toughness of the SEC, that all but dooms the Aggies at this early stage. It's going to be tough for them to get back in the thick of it. If this was a fluke, they have the opportunity given SOS but a loss to a non-contender at home? That hurts.

12:00midnight EST

#12 Alabama 50, FSU 36 - Not exactly the revenge game Alabama fans were hoping for, FSU kept it close all the way. It ended up 1 point away from our spread.

#10 Mississippi 32, #11 LSU 24. Technically, LSU beat our 9 point spread and Ole Miss underperformed by a point, but the W is everything here.

#13 BYU 41, Colorado State 23 - The Cougars were cruising until the Rams scored 16 4th quarter points to put them behind the 8-ball, spread-wise. For Big Twelve teams hoping the conference gets a 2nd bid, the eye test really matters.

#3 Texas 30, UTSA 6 - Like most top teams, Texas won but underperformed. But since they all did, there won't be much change.

#1 Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 10 - Like I just said: the top teams won but underperformed, Notre Dame more than almost anyone. The Irish were so far ahead in our power rating that they might remain #1 in our Top 25 Projection, but things will be tighter.

#24 Tennessee 42, Kennesaw State 9 - More underperformance, but only by about a touchdown for the Vols.

West Virginia 38, #14 Virginia 27 - Finally another upset! The Cavs were looking really good this year; now maybe it's the 3-0 Mountaineers?

Late Game:

#18 North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10 - The Bison go 4-0 on their way to a Playoff spot if everything goes right, beating the other new FBS teams. ND State needs to go undefeated and they also need to pass the eye test. This was probably good enough.