How the Top 25 fared week 2

Remember the old AP "How the Top 25 fared"? I'm doing that this week. Not with the AP Top 25, and not even our power rating's top 25, but out Projected Committee Final Top 25, as seen below. I will update it occasionally throughout today's action.

Results in Green beat or met the SportsRatings spread
Black is a win, but not against the spread,
and Red is a loss

Projected Final Top 25 as of 9/08/2026, tracking games of Saturday Sept. 12:

                            Record   Playoff    
Rnk Team              Conf Curr Proj   Odds  This weekend (SR spread) RESULT(±diff)
 1. Notre Dame        Ind  1-0  12-0   76.6  vs. Rice (-60)   ND 52-0 (-8) 
 2. Indiana          *B10  1-0  12-0   58.4  vs. Howard (-69)  IND 55-0 (-14)
 3. Penn State        B10  1-0  12-0   47.3  @ Temple (-39)   PENN ST 27-9 (-21)
 4. Oregon            B10  1-0  11-1   47.2  @ Oklahoma St (-41)  OK ST 39-31 (-49)
 5. Ohio State        B10  1-0  10-2   44.1  @ #8 Texas (+1)    TEX 24-23 (+0)
 6. Miami FL         *ACC  1-0  11-1   39.2  vs. Florida A&M (-62)  MIAMI 77-7 (+8)
 7. Texas Tech       *B12  1-0  12-0   40.9  @ Oregon St (-29)    TECH 35-24 (-18)
 8. Texas            *SEC  1-0  11-1   43.7  vs. #5 Ohio State (-1)  TEX 24-23 (+0)
 9. Mississippi       SEC  1-0  10-2   39.2  vs. Charlotte (-56)   MISS 41-9 (-24)
10. Texas A&M         SEC  1-0  12-0   41.8  vs. Arizona St (-27)  TAMU 48-20 (+1)
11. Georgia           SEC  1-0  11-1   39.2  vs. W Kentucky (-45)  GA 70-20 (+5) 
12. LSU               SEC  1-0   9-3   31.6  vs. LA Tech (-37)   LSU 45-14 (-6)
13. Oklahoma          SEC  1-0   9-3   32.7  @ Michigan (-5)    MICH 17-10 (-12) 
14. Southern Cal      B10  2-0   8-4   24.2  vs. LA-Lafayette (-39)  USC 49-30 (-20)
15. Virginia          ACC  1-0  10-2   21.1  vs. Norfolk St (-56)  VA 59-3 (0)
16. Washington        B10  1-0   8-4   20.2  vs. Utah State (-31)  WASH 16-14 (-29)
17. North Dakota St  *MWC  2-0  12-0   17.8  @ Air Force (-5)  ND ST 38-32 (+1)
18. Alabama           SEC  1-0   8-4   23.2  @ Kentucky (-11)   BAMA 45-17 (+17)
19. SMU               ACC  1-0  10-2   15.4  vs. UC Davis (-31)  SMU 56-10 (+15)
20. Pittsburgh        ACC  1-0   9-3   16.5  vs. UCF (-11)     PITT 12-7 (-6) 
21. Brigham Young     B12  1-0  11-1   19.9  vs. Arizona (-7)   BYU 28-17 (+4)
22. Louisville        ACC  0-1  11-1   16.1  vs. Villanova (-43)  LOU 59-13 (+3)
23. Houston           B12  1-0   9-3   15.6  vs. Southern (-59)  HOU 77-6 (+12)
24. Tennessee         SEC  1-0   9-3   20.2  @ Georgia Tech (-13)  TENN 45-24 (+8)
25. Boise St         *P12  0-1  11-1   15.8  vs. Memphis (-13)   BOISE 38-20 (+5)

1:30 EST No final scores yet for Saturday, but Thursday and Friday nights games went just about as expected. The ACC had little to gain against poor opposition but managed to match or exceed expectations across the board.

#6 Miami was a whopping 62 point favorite in our book and somehow they cleared that in 55 minutes of play. 

Another ACC team (#15 Virginia) exactly matched our lofty 8 touchdown spread, beating Norfolk 59-3.

Yet another ACC team, #22 Louisville also played almost exactly to expectations, beating Villanova by 46 vs. 43 expectation.

4:00pm

#2 Indiana looked like they were going to beat the ridiculous 69 point spread but they ended the game early at 55-0, which will (sorry!) hurt the Hoosiers in our power rating. I'm sure they'll be ok.

#10 Texas A&M beat our spread by a point, 48-20 over ASU after a competitive start.

Michigan upset #13 Oklahoma in a game with SEC/Big Ten comparison fallout, 17-10

#3 Penn State however is not upholding the Big Ten ideal, scraping past Temple on the road 27-9. Penn State has been due for re-evaluation as they are a wild card team full of transfers.

#4 Oregon (-41) has their hands full with Oklahoma State, whom they beat 69-3 last year. They're down 27-24 in the 3rd quarter and even assuming they pull it out, they will plummet in the Top 25 projection.

Also: UMass is up 17-0 in the first quarter over Sacred Heart, and that's their entire spread achieved already. The Minutemen may be on to something!

5:15pm 

#4 Oregon fell to Oklahoma State after beating them by 66 last year. This is crazy. Major re-evaluations of both teams coming, but it looks bad for Oregon especially since Ok State couldn't even beat Tulsa last week. Or maybe they needed a week to try out the new squad?

#11 Georgia beat Western Kentucky 70-20, more than their 45 point spread.

7:30pm

#16 Washington continues the Big Ten's sour day (overall) with a 2 point win over Utah State. Expected margin 31 points. 

#21 BYU beat Arizona 28-17 very close to expectation and being an intra-Big 12 game means very little to anyone other than the Cougars and Wildcats.

#1 Notre Dame led 42-0 at half but took the foot off the pedal and won 52-0, short of the 60 pt goal. This means that so far, the top four projected teams have come up short, which is a good thing for the Playoff race; the favorites will look less certain come next week compared to the rest of the field.

#18 Alabama was losing to Kentucky at halftime but it goes in the books (and the power ratings) as a 45-17 win which raises the Tide's stock a bit.

#17 SMU beat UC Davis 56-10, a solid performance start to finish (they led 42-0 at half).

#20 Pitt beat UCF 12-7

10:30pm

#25 Boise State came back to trounce Memphis 38-20 in another important step toward the Playoff

#22 Houston scorched Southern U. 77-6

11:15pm:

#8 Texas beats #5 Ohio State 24-23, exactly the 1 point margin. I guess Texas gets green and Ohio State red? Even though they both did exactly what they were supposed to. It doesn't move the SEC vs. Big Ten needle at all, but it really helps Texas' Playoff Odds and the loss hurts (but doesn't kill) the Buckeyes.

#7 Texas Tech struggled a bit with lowly Oregon State, winning 35-24. Might tighten the Big Twelve race a bit.

#12 LSU fell a bit shy of their mark against Louisiana Tech, winning 45-14. Not enough to damage their hopes though.

#24 Tennessee beat Georgia Tech 45-24, a bit better than expected but not enough to move the Vols into the SEC conversation yet.

LATE LATE GAMES:

#14 USC vs. Louisiana Lafayette: The Trojans won 49-30, another game with bad defense. They were supposed to win by 39 to keep their rating intact.

#17 North Dakota State at Air Force. The Bison held off the Falcons at the end, but it got really close after they had a 23 point lead after 3 quarters. They ended up almost exactly on our spread, 6 points vs. the expected 5 points. Their quest for 13-0 and a Playoff berth is intact.