Week 2 preview: There is *one* good game this week. ONE.

Week 2! That means the cupcake games are over and we can get into the thick of the 2026 college fooball season!

Guess again. There are more cupcake games this week than there were last week. And in terms of meaningful games? There is exactly ONE. It's a big one, but it's the only intra-(projected) Top 25 game this week. (There was only one last week too)

Of course it's #5 Ohio State at #8 Texas. Both are projected Playoff teams and the winner will have the door wide open for them. The loser isn't out of it by any means but any loss makes things harder—last year's loss probably cost Texas a Playoff spot. The Longhorns are a 1.5 point favorite by the oddsmakers and about the same by our projection. In our power ratings Texas is up to #3 now, with Ohio State at #4, suggesting a field goal margin maybe. 

But the rest of the Top 25? Our projected margins include Notre Dame by 60, Indiana by 69, Miami by 62, Ole Miss by 56, Virginia by 56, and Houston by 59. Ten other teams are favored by roughly four touchdowns or more. That leaves #18 Alabama at Kentucky and #20 Pitt vs. UCF being two of the more competitive games!

Another important game involving a currently projected Playoff team is #17 North Dakota State at Air Force. This is one of the Bisons' toughest games of the year, one of three hurdles they need to clear toward an undefeated season and G6 Playoff berth. We have them by about 5 points; Vegas says 2.5.

                            Record   Playoff    
Rnk Team              Conf Curr Proj   Odds  This weekend
 1. Notre Dame        Ind  1-0  12-0   76.6  vs. Rice (-60)
 2. Indiana          *B10  1-0  12-0   58.4  vs. Howard (-69)
 3. Penn State        B10  1-0  12-0   47.3  @ Temple (-39)
 4. Oregon            B10  1-0  11-1   47.2  @ Oklahoma St (-41)
 5. Ohio State        B10  1-0  10-2   44.1  @ #8 Texas (+1)
 6. Miami FL         *ACC  1-0  11-1   39.2  vs. Florida A&M (-62)
 7. Texas Tech       *B12  1-0  12-0   40.9  @ Oregon St (-29)
 8. Texas            *SEC  1-0  11-1   43.7  vs. #5 Ohio State (-1)
 9. Mississippi       SEC  1-0  10-2   39.2  vs. Charlotte (-56)
10. Texas A&M         SEC  1-0  12-0   41.8  vs. Arizona St (-27)
11. Georgia           SEC  1-0  11-1   39.2  vs. W Kentucky (-45)
12. LSU               SEC  1-0   9-3   31.6  vs. LA Tech (-37)
13. Oklahoma          SEC  1-0   9-3   32.7  @ Michigan (-5)
14. Southern Cal      B10  2-0   8-4   24.2  vs. LA-Lafayette (-39)
15. Virginia          ACC  1-0  10-2   21.1  vs. Norfolk St (-56)
16. Washington        B10  1-0   8-4   20.2  vs. Utah State (-31)
17. North Dakota St  *MWC  2-0  12-0   17.8  @ Air Force (-5)
18. Alabama           SEC  1-0   8-4   23.2  @ Kentucky (-11)
19. SMU               ACC  1-0  10-2   15.4  vs. UC Davis (-31)
20. Pittsburgh        ACC  1-0   9-3   16.5  vs. UCF (-11)
21. Brigham Young     B12  1-0  11-1   19.9  vs. Arizona (-7)
22. Louisville        ACC  0-1  11-1   16.1  vs. Villanova (-43)
23. Houston           B12  1-0   9-3   15.6  vs. Southern (-59)
24. Tennessee         SEC  1-0   9-3   20.2  @ Georgia Tech (-13)
25. Boise St         *P12  0-1  11-1   15.8  vs. Memphis (-13)

There are a few other games with Playoff significance in the top 25. First, #13 Oklahoma hosts Michigan and is a slight favorite. This game will also help set the pecking order between the SEC and Big Ten. Michigan tumbled out of the top 25 but by winning (*) the game, they preserved their Playoff hopes. #21 BYU hosts Arizona in an early Big Twelve contest; Arizona is just outside the top 25. And #25 Boise State has hopes for the G6 bid and they host Memphis, the highest-rated American Athletic team.

                            Record   Playoff    
Rnk Team              Conf Curr Proj  Odds  This weekend
28. Arizona           B12  1-0   9-3  13.8  @ BYU (+7)
29. Memphis           AAc  2-0   8-4   9.6  @ Boise St (+13)
30. Michigan          B10  1-0   7-5  12.5  vs. #13 Oklahoma (+5)
35. Duke              ACC  1-0   9-3   8.0  @ Illinois (+5)
48. Illinois          B10  1-0   8-4   6.6  @ Duke (-5)
49. Missouri          SEC  1-0   7-5   9.0  @ Kansas (-3)
50. Kansas            B12  1-0   6-6   7.0  vs. Missouri (+3)

Two other games above are of lesser significance but could be in retrospect. Duke travels to Illinois where they are the underdog; the Blue Devils rank higher here because their schedule is easier and their outlook therefore rosier. Missouri vs. Kansas is another inter-conference clash that helps set the relative strength of the power conferences.

Below are several outside contenders for the G6 Playoff spot. James Madison made it last year and they are the Sun favorites and face a cupcake game Saturday. The Mountain West has two more candidates below: New Mexico has an easy win coming while Air Force faces North Dakota State seeking to replace the Bison as MWC forerunner. The conference with the most candidates is the American. In addition to Memphis at 29, they have #32 Army and #38 South Florida who play this weekend, as well as #43 Navy and #46 Tulane. 

                            Record   Playoff    
Rnk Team              Conf Curr Proj  Odds  This weekend
31. James Madison    *SUNe 1-0  11-1   9.4  vs. Wagner (-51)
32. Army             *AAc  1-0  11-1  13.1  vs. South Florida (-9)
38. South Florida     AAc  1-0   9-3   7.0  @ Army (+9)
39. New Mexico        MWC  1-0  10-2   7.1  vs. Mercyhurst (-51)
42. Air Force         MWC  1-0   9-3   8.7  vs. North Dakota St (+5)
43. Navy              AAc  1-0   9-3   7.5  @ FLA Atlantic (-9)
45. Liberty          *CUSA 0-1  11-1   1.6  vs. Gardner Webb (-29)
46. Tulane            AAc  0-1   9-3   5.9  vs. South Alabama (-15)
47. Western Michigan *MAC  0-1   9-3   2.8  vs. Monmount (-25)

Both Liberty in C-USA and Western Michigan in the MAC already have losses, so their odds of making the Playoff is limited even if they win out. But the Chippewas are an interesting case. Even though the MAC is very week, going 12-1 with a very, very excusable loss to Michigan would get them a lot of attention for the G6 spot.

                            Record   Playoff    
Rnk Team              Conf Curr Proj  Odds  This weekend
109. Massachusetts    MAC  1-0   3-9   0.1  vs. Sacred Heart (-17)
126. Rutgers          B10  0-1   3-9   0.3  @Boston College (-3)

Finally, let's check in on last week's big movers (up and down). UMass has a great shot at winning their 2nd game in a row for the first time since 2023. Rutgers takes on Boston College, one of the worst teams in the ACC, so that's a good comparison between those leagues. We have Rutgers favored while Vegas likes BC by a field goal.