First unbaised power ratings says Notre Dame really is #1

We just published the first-of-the-season unbiased power rating, meaning there are no pre-season biases in it: it uses ONLY this year's games to make its ratings.

And somewhat surprisingly, just like our Bayesian-updated pre-season rankings (ratings based on pre-season ratings, but updated with early season results), Notre Dame ranks as the #1 team in the nation.

This is a bit surprising, as the Irish have been good but seemingly not great. I mean, they've done well, and have done nothing to drop them from their lofty pre-season heights (where they began at #2 actually). But I really didn't expect that what they've done so far would put them on top of an unbiased ranking.

SportsRatings All-Division Power Rating after games of 9/19/2026:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Notre Dame                  3-0   91.10   72.77 [  7]  -18.32 [  4]
  2. Alabama                     3-0   88.61   79.42 [  1]   -9.19 [ 27]
  3. Texas                       3-0   87.33   66.48 [ 20]  -20.84 [  2]
  4. Ohio State                  2-1   84.88   71.85 [ 10]  -13.02 [ 15]
  5. Mississippi St              3-0   84.39   75.95 [  3]   -8.43 [ 30]
  6. LSU                         2-1   81.11   64.30 [ 25]  -16.81 [  7]
  7. Florida                     3-0   79.95   73.13 [  6]   -6.81 [ 33]
  8. Miami FL                    3-0   79.50   73.69 [  5]   -5.81 [ 38]
  9. Pittsburgh                  3-0   79.27   62.61 [ 34]  -16.65 [  8]
 10. Virginia                    2-1   78.27   61.25 [ 45]  -17.02 [  6]

But here they are at #1, with top ten offense and defense. So far they've beaten Wisconsin 41-13, Rice 52-0, and Michigan State 27-10. Sounds good, right? But not great? Apparently in a 3-game world, that's the best anyone's managed so far. 

Of course, the usual caveats apply for early power ratings. In case you didn't know, any power ratings that you see at this stage of the season ALL have heavy bias to keep things looking reasonable. But I'm impressed at how reasonable this top ten is, with both Texas and Ohio State in the top five just one spot apart, Miami in the top ten, not bad. There are some "interesting" choices too, ones that will either correct themselves soon or will be proven clairvoyant.

Alabama is at #2, higher than the polls for sure, and ranking #1 in offense interestingly. So far they've scored 48, 45, and 50 against East Carolina, Kentucky, and Florida State. Note that Kentucky just held Texas A&M to 21 points. Who is #1 on defense? None other than Oklahoma:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
 19. Oklahoma                    2-1   72.79   51.18 [100]  -21.61 [  1]
 20. Virginia Tech               3-0   71.32   76.16 [  2]    4.84 [114]

The Sooners have held opponents to 0 (UTEP), 17 (Michigan), and 6 (New Mexico). But look at that offense rank! Ouch. I added in Virginia Tech for contrast: #2 offense and #114 defense.

We knew Mississippi State was doing well this year but they're #5 in the nation, if you're being fully unbiased. The Bulldogs have a dominant win at Minnesota and just beat South Carolina on the road. 

LSU is #6 despite their loss at Ole Miss, which is actually fair since the margin was tiny on the road. Florida ranks ahead of Miami and their early output, including a win at Auburn, is certainly promising but we'll wait for top-ten confirmation.

Pittsburgh and Virginia round out the top ten. Pitt was less than dominant against UCF and Syracuse but the math works out in their favor so far. Virginia lost to West Virginia but their other games, including a wipeout of NC State, have them in good favor. 

How close is this top ten to the "real thing"? Well, for comparison let's look at last year's ratings at this time, and you can draw your own conclusions:

SportsRatings All-Division power rating (unbiased) after Week 3, 2025:

 #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
 1. Florida St                  2-0   78.75   64.64 [ 14]  -14.11 [  5]
 2. Oregon                      3-0   75.37   72.44 [  4]   -2.92 [ 33]
 3. Indiana                     3-0   73.03   64.36 [ 15]   -8.66 [ 10]
 4. Illinois                    3-0   72.64   62.62 [ 20]  -10.02 [  8]
 5. Alabama                     2-1   69.99   65.98 [  8]   -4.01 [ 25]
 6. Oklahoma                    3-0   67.69   48.75 [ 88]  -18.94 [  4]
 7. Southern Cal                3-0   67.11   73.56 [  3]    6.44 [107]
 8. Utah                        3-0   65.55   61.43 [ 24]   -4.11 [ 23]
 9. Brigham Young               2-0   65.39   64.76 [ 13]   -0.62 [ 49]
10. Georgia                     3-0   63.59   54.54 [ 54]   -9.04 [  9]

So last year's list wasn't too bad. FSU at #1 (following their upset of Alabama) didn't pan out, but they only had played 2 games which is always a red flag. Eventual champ Indiana is here, along with playoff teams Oregon, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia, and near-playoff teams USC, Utah, and BYU. Illinois finished 9-4. The AP Top 25 at the time had just 4 eventual playoff teams, and didn't have Indiana in the top 10 (FSU was #10, Illinois #9, and Penn State was #2!)

So what I'm saying is, the early unbiased top ten might be just as good as the current AP top 10, or better. Just ignore teams with only 2 games played.