Week 1 Recap: Same Playoff, but Michigan out of Top 25

Some weird moments in college football in Week One of 2026 but not many upsets, and in the end no change in the teams featured in our 12-team playoff prediction.

Notre Dame remains on top after beating Wisconsin handily (following a slow start). The Irish are now at around 50/50 odds to finish in the top four! This is due to other top teams falling off a bit, where no slacking is tolerated. Indiana allowed 16 points vs. North Texas and lost almost 5 Playoff points and almost 5% of their national champ odds, too; Oregon, of course, had trouble with Boise State and fell 4.3%; Ohio State mauled Ball State 56-3 but the Big Ten is getting devalued a bit in general. Only Penn State rose a meager +0.3% after exactly matching our projected 45 point margin vs. Marshall. The Lions are proving our very rosy forecast correct so far, but it's only one game in.

Outside the Big Ten finally, Miami had a solid game at Stanford, winning 45-6, while Texas Tech was less than impressive in beating Abilene Christian 33-10. Both teams remain their conference picks.

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
  1   1. Notre Dame        Ind  1-0 12-0 11.0-1.0  76.6  +0.6  49.9  99.7  +0.3 15.7 -0.3
  2   2. Indiana          *B10  1-0 12-0 10.2-1.8  58.4  -4.9  31.9  98.1  +0.1 10.2 -4.6
  4   3. Penn State        B10  1-0 12-0  9.9-2.1  47.3  +0.3  18.4  95.8  +1.0  5.2 -0.4
  3   4. Oregon            B10  1-0 11-1  9.4-2.6  47.2  -4.3  20.8  93.4  +0.6  5.1 -3.5
  6   5. Ohio State        B10  1-0 10-2  8.9-3.1  44.1  -1.0  22.4  90.6  +0.1  6.5 -2.0
  7   6. Miami FL         *ACC  1-0 11-1  9.4-2.6  39.2  +4.0  17.8  94.2  +3.1  3.4 +0.7
  5   7. Texas Tech       *B12  1-0 12-0  9.7-2.3  40.9  -4.3  19.9  93.8  -0.8  3.2 -0.7
 11   8. Texas            *SEC  1-0 11-1  8.5-3.5  43.7  +7.3  22.4  85.2  +3.0  8.0 +2.6
  9   9. Mississippi       SEC  1-0 10-2  8.7-3.3  39.2  +1.3  17.5  88.8  +1.5  5.8 +0.5
 10  10. Texas A&M         SEC  1-0 12-0  8.8-3.2  41.8  +3.2  20.5  88.3  +1.5  7.4 +2.6
  8  11. Georgia           SEC  1-0 11-1  8.7-3.3  39.2  +0.4  16.8  87.1  -1.0  5.1 +0.8
 21  12. LSU               SEC  1-0  9-3  8.2-3.8  31.6 +11.6  12.6  83.7 +10.3  3.2 +1.8
 12  13. Oklahoma          SEC  1-0  9-3  7.9-4.1  32.7  +2.3  14.6  78.7  -0.2  4.1 +0.5

The bottom of the Playoff zone is all SEC; probably four of the six teams here will get in, with the conference winner making the top four, but currently they are stuck in a parity clump. Texas is the new flavor of the month, now favored in the 50/50 game vs. Ohio State, and #3 in national championship odds at 8.0%.  Every SEC team here gained Playoff Odds as they closed the distance our pre-season numbers had vs. the Big Ten. The biggest mover was LSU who nearly jumped into a Playoff spot after beating Clemson 51-10, gaining 11.6% in odds. Oklahoma somehow gained Playoff Odds but fell in Bowl Odds, probably because all their SEC opponents are looking so good. Texas A&M and Georgia won in blowouts while Ole Miss got past Louisville, which was all they had to do to keep themselves on track.

The most important race in the bottom half of the Projected Final Top 25 is the Group of Six winner. That's still North Dakota State for now, but Boise State has entered the chat at #25. The Broncos are a big problem for the Bison and for all the American Athletic teams that hope to get that last Playoff spot. A close loss at Oregon is a good résumé booster, as is the Boise State name, and even the Pac-12 name.

                                    Record          Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg 
 17  14. Southern Cal      B10  2-0  8-4  7.9-4.1  24.2  +3.5   8.9  81.5  +6.5  1.8 +0.0
 13  15. Virginia          ACC  1-0 10-2  8.8-3.2  21.1  +1.8   5.8  87.1  +0.1  0.8 +0.3
 14  16. Washington        B10  1-0  8-4  7.8-4.2  20.2  -2.0   6.5  80.2  -1.0  1.0 -0.7
 15  17. North Dakota St  *MWC  2-0 12-0  9.2-2.8  17.8  -0.2   0.8  91.1  +0.0  0.1 +0.0
 22  18. Alabama           SEC  1-0  8-4  7.6-4.4  23.2  +3.9   8.1  75.3  +3.1  1.8 +0.9
 24  19. SMU               ACC  1-0 10-2  8.1-3.9  15.4  +1.6   4.5  83.1  +7.2  0.4 +0.1
 26  20. Pittsburgh        ACC  1-0  9-3  8.3-3.7  16.5  +3.7   4.4  84.1  +8.6  0.8 +0.6
 20  21. Brigham Young     B12  1-0 11-1  7.9-4.1  19.9  +1.7   8.0  78.3  +0.4  0.8 +0.0
 19  22. Louisville        ACC  0-1 11-1  7.8-4.2  16.1  -3.1   3.0  79.7  +0.6  0.9 +0.0
 16  23. Houston           B12  1-0  9-3  8.1-3.9  15.6  -3.2   4.8  82.2  -1.0  0.5 -0.1
 23  24. Tennessee         SEC  1-0  9-3  7.4-4.6  20.2  +1.4   6.9  73.5  +0.5  1.4 +0.4
 28  25. Boise St         *P12  0-1 11-1  7.9-4.1  15.8  +2.7   0.4  80.5  +5.3  0.4 +0.3

The rest of the bottom half includes extra Big Ten teams (USC, Washington), and SEC hopefuls (Alabama, Tennessee). More important are the ACC teams hoping to replace Miami, and the Big Twelve teams gunning for Texas Tech. Pittsburgh is one of those ACC teams and are one of only two new team in the top 25, up six spots after crushing Miami Ohio 59-14. Louisville held pretty steady after their close loss at Ole Miss (41-38). Houston fell just as much after winning their game, 33-20 over lowly Oregon State. 

Outside the top 25 Bowl Eligibility is usually the concern, but it's early enough that everyone below still has Playoff hopes, realistic or not. Three Big Twelve teams hope to break from the pack; Arizona slipped out of the Top 25 after a tepid 35-7 win over Northern Arizona, while K-State and Utah won by a combined 137-17. 

Michigan was the week's big loser: "winning" 14-13 over Western Michigan wasn't enough to keep them in the Top 25, and the Wolverines fall from #18 to #30, down 7.6% in Playoff Odds but still as a respectable 12.5%. Their odds of being national champs fell from 1.7% to 0.5%. 

                                     Record         Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team               Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 27  26. Kansas St          B12  1-0 11-1  7.9-4.1  15.9 +2.9   4.0  77.2  +4.2  0.5 +0.3
 30  27. Utah               B12  1-0  9-3  7.7-4.3  16.6 +2.6   5.1  74.6  +4.1  0.5 +0.2
 25  28. Arizona            B12  1-0  9-3  7.7-4.3  13.8 -0.9   3.9  76.7  -0.1  0.6 +0.1
 29  29. Memphis            AAc  2-0  8-4  8.1-3.9   9.6 +0.0   0.5  82.4  +3.7 <0.1 +0.0
 18  30. Michigan           B10  1-0  7-5  6.9-5.1  12.5 -7.6   3.4  69.1  -5.1  0.5 -1.2
 34  31. James Madison     *SUNe 1-0 11-1  8.3-3.7   9.4 +1.2   0.3  82.5  +5.1  0.0 +0.0
 31  32. Army              *AAc  1-0 11-1  8.0-4.0  13.1 +1.1   1.0  77.5  +1.8  0.1 +0.1
 37  33. South Carolina     SEC  1-0  6-6  7.0-5.0  13.3 +3.0   3.5  67.6  +3.5  0.9 +0.4
 32  34. Virginia Tech      ACC  1-0 10-2  7.3-4.7  11.2 +0.5   2.9  70.5  +1.4  0.4 +0.3
 43  35. Duke               ACC  1-0  9-3  7.2-4.8   8.0 -0.2   1.4  71.4  +6.7  0.1 +0.0
 54  36. UCLA               B10  1-0  8-4  7.1-4.9  10.3 +4.2   1.3  69.2  +8.9  0.1 +0.0
 33  37. Vanderbilt         SEC  1-0  7-5  6.8-5.2  11.6 +0.0   2.7  65.2  -1.8  0.4 +0.0
 35  38. South Florida      AAc  1-0  9-3  7.7-4.3   7.0 -1.3   0.2  77.0  +1.1 <0.1 +0.0
 55  39. New Mexico         MWC  1-0 10-2  7.6-4.4   7.1 +2.7   0.3  76.4  +7.3 <0.1 +0.0
 57  40. Florida            SEC  1-0  7-5  6.4-5.6  10.1 +2.4   2.4  60.0  +6.5  0.6 +0.3
 51  41. Iowa               B10  1-0  7-5  6.9-5.1   7.9 +1.0   1.4  66.9  +5.6  0.1 +0.0
 47  42. Air Force          MWC  1-0  9-3  7.4-4.6   8.7 +1.7   0.4  72.2  +1.5 <0.1 +0.0
 42  43. Navy               AAc  1-0  9-3  7.2-4.8   7.5 +0.8   0.6  71.3  -0.2 <0.1 +0.0
 41  44. Nebraska           B10  1-0  6-6  6.6-5.4   7.3 -1.1   1.2  63.8  +1.0  0.1 -0.2
 36  45. Liberty           *CUSA 0-1 11-1  7.6-4.4   1.6 -5.1   0.0  76.4  -1.5  0.0 +0.0
 40  46. Tulane             AAc  0-1  9-3  6.8-5.2   5.9 -3.5   0.1  68.2  -3.0 <0.1 +0.0
 61  47. Western Michigan  *MAC  0-1  9-3  7.3-4.7   2.8 -0.6   0.0  74.2  +7.1  0.0 +0.0

Western Michigan on the other hand, soared with the loss, up 14 spots to #47 and now the MAC favorite. Their bowl odds increased despite losing, though their meager Playoff odds fell since beating Michigan was part of their ticket. Other projected conference winners include James Madison (Sun) and Liberty (CUSA) and the Dukes beat the Flames 20-13 last week (hence the distance between the two being 14 places, where last week they were neck and neck). Losing to another G6 candidate is rough, and Liberty's odds fell from 6.7% to just 1.6%

The American Athletic has five teams above. Memphis is the highest projected finish but Army is still the more likely conference championship winner. The Black Knights won 59-3 last week and rose to 13.3% Playoff Odds while the Tigers held steady after beating Arkansas State 42-24. South Florida slipped a bit after a 19-9 win over FIU, Tulane fell after losing 17-3 to Duke, while Navy beat Towson 42-15 which seemingly was enough for our algorithm to boost the Midshipmen a bit.  

Now to the lower reaches where a bowl game is their paramount concern. That group now includes Clemson after their big loss; the Tigers' Playoff Odds fell to 3.3% and their bowl odds are just 56.7%. Colorado's clutch upset at Georgia Tech boosted them to 60%, up 8% while the Yellow Jackets dropped below 50%. But Nevada had the biggest jump of the teams below, up 16.1% after thrashing Western Kentucky 49-14. 

                                     Record         Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team               Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
 69  54. UNLV               MWC  1-1  7-5  6.9-5.1   4.1 +1.3  <0.1  68.5  +7.7  0.0 +0.0
 74  58. Colorado           B12  1-0  4-8  6.4-5.6   5.9 +0.7   1.0  60.0  +8.0 <0.1 +0.0
 45  63. Clemson            ACC  0-1  6-6  6.0-6.0   3.3 -4.7   0.2  56.7  -7.5  0.1 +0.0
122  88. Nevada             MWC  1-0  6-6  5.9-6.1   2.0 +1.5  <0.1  52.9 +16.1  0.0 +0.0
110  90. Kennesaw St        CUSA 1-0  7-5  6.3-5.7   1.1 +0.7   0.0  58.4  +9.0  0.0 +0.0
 78  93. Georgia Tech       ACC  0-1  4-8  5.0-7.0   1.6 -2.8   0.1  41.4  -8.6 <0.1 +0.0115  99. Appalachian St     SUNe 1-0  4-8  5.9-6.1   1.1 +0.6   0.0  52.2  +8.1  0.0 +0.0
120 101. Tulsa              AAc  1-0  4-8  5.8-6.2   1.1 +0.7   0.0  51.8 +12.3  0.0 +0.0
 85 107. California         ACC  0-1  2-10 4.7-7.3   0.9 -2.2  <0.1  37.8  -9.7  0.0 +0.0
 86 108. Eastern Michigan   MAC  1-1  5-7  5.6-6.4   0.1 -0.7   0.0  50.7 -10.1  0.0 +0.0

Kennesaw State and Appalachian State won by a combined 102-3 over FCS opponents. Tulsa upended Oklahoma State and in doing so improved their own lot; the Golden Hurricane are now over 50% in bowl odds. California lost to UCLA at home and lost nearly 10% bowl odds, while Eastern Michigan lost to San Jose State and fell by a similar amount.  

The winner of the week, however, has to be Massachusetts. 0-12 last year the Minutemen beat Rutgers on the road 37-21. It wasn't even close! They were the only team to have 0.0% Playoff Odds at the very start, and now they're up to 0.1%. They are projected (cumulatively) to go 6-6 but their bowl odds, though up an amazing 25%, are still just 45.5% since they play two FCS teams and can only count one win. Rutgers plummeted like a rock after the loss, down from #73 to #126, losing all but 0.3% of their Playoff Odds and half of the Bowl Odds (from 52% to 25%). But the Scarlet Knights still show a tiny chance to recover and be national champs, amazingly! We asked the question, is UMass good now or Rutgers terrible? Both? We will find out over the next several weeks I suppose.

                                     Record         Playoff    Bye   Bowl Elig  Champs
 LW  Rnk Team               Conf Cur Proj   Cume    Odds %chg  Odds  Odds  %chg Odds %chg
138 109. Massachusetts      MAC  1-0  3-9  6.0-6.0   0.1 +0.1   0.0  45.5 +24.8  0.0 +0.0
 92 114. Utah St            P12  0-1  2-10 4.3-7.7   1.0 -1.6  <0.1  33.7 -14.9  0.0 +0.0
 83 115. Western Kentucky   CUSA 0-1  6-6  4.9-7.1   0.1 -0.6   0.0  41.6 -18.3  0.0 +0.0
100 116. Hawai`i            MWC  0-2  6-6  4.7-7.3  <0.1 -0.3   0.0  39.5 -11.0  0.0 +0.0
135 122. Colorado St        P12  1-0  2-10 4.6-7.4   0.6 +0.4   0.0  34.4  +8.4  0.0 +0.0
104 124. Wyoming            MWC  0-1  3-9  4.6-7.4   0.1 -1.1   0.0  37.9 -11.7  0.0 +0.0
 73 126. Rutgers            B10  0-1  3-9  3.8-8.2   0.3 -3.6   0.0  25.0 -27.1 <0.1 +0.0
123 136. Oklahoma St        B12  0-1  1-11 3.2-8.8   0.1 -0.5   0.0  16.8 -11.8  0.0 +0.0
130 137. UNC-Charlotte      AAc  0-1  0-12 3.2-8.9  <0.1 +0.0   0.0  20.0 -11.8  0.0 +0.0
136 138. Kent St            MAC  0-1  2-10 3.5-8.5   0.0 +0.0   0.0  23.3  -4.4  0.0 +0.0

Almost every other team at this low level dropped a lot. Utah State was upset by FCS Idaho State 29-17; WKU as mentioned was beaten 49-14; Hawaii is 0-2 after losing to UNLV; Wyoming lost 35-13 to former #135 Colorado State, one of the few teams here to move up; Oklahoma State's turnaround hopes were dashed by Tulsa 24-10; Charlotte was upset in triple overtime by The Citadel, and now is not favored to win a game this year, the only one; and Kent State took over as last place team after losing 57-0 at South Carolina.