SportsRatings

Two weekends of upsets and what has changed in the Playoff picture? Just two teams in aggregate. Last week BYU entered and Texas left; this week Texas entered and BYU departed. That means the only change over the past two weeks is LSU in, Texas Tech out. Ok, there's also the G6 slot, but more on that later. Nothing is different at the top where idle Notre Dame holds down the fort at #1. They say if the Irish lose to Miami they'll be out of the Playoff but it's hard to see how. Yes they'll be in the same jam as last season but it seems more accepted this year that Notre Dame is among the top teams, and most people think they got screwed last year. Now, if they lose to SMU, too, that's different. For now the Irish are by far the most likely national title winner at 16%, and that's coming off a loss and idle week! Miami beat Pitt convincingly enough to move to #2, up 10% in Playoff Odds and 12.5% in Bye odds. But the ACC has a problem: no one else is close. The h...

Disappointed there wasn't much change at the top of the projected Final Top 25 last week? Well prepare for more disappointment this week as all three top teams— Notre Dame , Georgia , and Ohio State —are idle this weekend.  #4 Miami might be able to push past the Buckeyes with a solid win over Pitt, but other than that the top spots will remain the same. #6  Indiana and #7  BYU might get road tests vs. Central Florida and Michigan, but the first of two big games is #8  Mississippi visiting #15  Texas where the 5-1 Rebels are underdogs to the Longhorns! Not sure that would swap the teams out in the Playoff though—probably would put them both right on the bubble, and add to the SEC parity problem. The only other intra-Top 25 game is #13 Houston at #11 Utah . A Cougar win here probably would swap the teams out, while a Utah win would put the Utes pretty close to #5 Texas Tech . Right now Utah has zero good wins. This one would be big and it would diminish the ...

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now projected to finish #3 in the Final Committee Top 25 after their win over Indiana. Record Playoff Bye Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds % chg Odds % chg Odds % chg 2 1. Notre Dame Ind 6-1 11-1 10.5-1.5 81.9 -6.7 45.8 -13.8 12.8 -1.8 1 2. Georgia *SEC 6-1 10-2 9.8-2.2 79.7 -11.5 40.3 -19.7 11.5 -3.5 8 3. Ohio State *B10 6-1 11-1 9.8-2.2 74.5 +18.8 41.7 +16.5 10.5 +3.3 But that projection doesn't account for the potentially season-ending injury to QB Justin Sayin. Sayin was hurt against Indiana and the team has said they are preparing as if Sayin will not be available through the post-season. Most reports suggest he will be out a number of weeks but then return. Ohio State is idle next week before playing its remaining five games and then possibly the Big Ten title game and the Playoff. Ba...

Sometimes I don't know what Heather Dinich is thinking at ESPN. She seems to randomly place teams in a Playoff situation and justify it, no context to any other team.  Case in point : She says Utah is a borderline case (if the Playoff were picked today) because their schedule is weak—they have no wins over winning teams. This is a good observation. But ultimately she places 6-0 Utah in the Playoff along with 6-0 BYU, but says 6-0 Texas Tech is on the "wrong side of the bubble". Seriously? Texas Tech has one of the best wins of the season, over 6-1 Houston. And a win over 5-2 Oregon State. She quotes the FPI's Strength of Record (SOR) all the time, but Texas Tech is #8 there while Utah is #13. It would make perfect sense to include Texas Tech and say that Utah is outside the bubble right now. That's ESPN's own metric! And if you project forward and use the FPI or SP+ (whichever one ESPN decides is their real ranking system) the Red Raiders are a few spots bett...

Since Week One, the Playoff picture hasn't been changing as much as evolving. Each week brings small change, one or two teams replaced at most. A good projection really should be immune from wholesale change, since it is looking ahead to the end of the season. But Week Seven was an unprecedented weekend of upsets, certainly the Playoff picture is radically different as a result? Nope. One change. Five Playoff teams lost last week and just one— Texas —dropped out of the seeding. One— Notre Dame —actually moved up and into the #1 seed! Georgia —who unlike the Irish were upset by an unranked team—fell one spot to #2, but remain at around 80% odds to make the Playoff. Indiana fell a single spot and lost single digits of Odds. Alabama's loss was their second, so they fell further but remain over 50%. The #1, #2, #4, #5, and #7 teams lost, so the effect across the top 11 was limited compared to what it would be if "bubble" teams had lost. To see where the real damage was ...

 #2 Daniel Dubois , SportsRatings Interim Heavyweight Champion, rematches #4 Fabio Wardley . Last time around Wardley almost ended things early, then Dubois did end things late after battering Wardley for many rounds. Round-by-round scoring: Dubois hits Wardley hard and gets a knockdown with his first punch, ref keeps him from following up as Wardley sits against the ropes. Wardley looks ok after 8 count. Dubois is going for the kill but can't get it. Wardley is swinging for the fences with every punch. Dubois is battering Wardley but he remains standing. Dubois ends round with huge flurry but can't drop him again. Dubois 10-8 Both fighters are more cautious early in round 2, probably tired as hell after round one. It's Dubois who gets in the first good shots near mid-round, definitely outboxing Wardley who is still swinging wide and leading with uppercuts. Wardley's chin is crazy, probably to his detriment. He's getting hit hard just like the last fight except Dub...

Week 7 : Dead center of the college football season. We know a lot but we have a lot left to learn. The biggest games this weekend are #5 Indiana vs. #8 Ohio State , and #2 Notre Dame vs. #13 BYU . The first game determines who will be the Big Ten leader. Ohio State needs a win here or they're on the Playoff bubble with losses to two solid Playoff teams. Indiana won't have a big win to hang their hat on without beating the Buckeyes. But both teams will still control their destiny to getting in the Playoff. The 2nd game might be more important: Notre Dame needs the win because they don't have many big games, and if they lose those their Playoff chances are poor. BYU on the other hand is carrying the Big Twelve on its back: beating Notre Dame opens up the chance for 2 or 3 bids for the conference, maybe even four in a perfect storm.  #4 Alabama looks to bounce back at #20 Tennessee and the Tide can't take that one lightly. #18 Missouri can probably replace #11 Ole Miss...