Ohio State going forward: Justin Sayin injury and tough schedule

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now projected to finish #3 in the Final Committee Top 25 after their win over Indiana.

                                     Record          Playoff     Bye         Champ
 LW  Rnk Team              Conf  Now Proj    Cume    Odds  %chg  Odds  %chg  Odds %chg
  2   1. Notre Dame        Ind   6-1 11-1  10.5-1.5  81.9  -6.7  45.8 -13.8  12.8 -1.8
  1   2. Georgia          *SEC   6-1 10-2   9.8-2.2  79.7 -11.5  40.3 -19.7  11.5 -3.5
  8   3. Ohio State       *B10   6-1 11-1   9.8-2.2  74.5 +18.8  41.7 +16.5  10.5 +3.3

But that projection doesn't account for the potentially season-ending injury to QB Justin Sayin. Sayin was hurt against Indiana and the team has said they are preparing as if Sayin will not be available through the post-season.

Most reports suggest he will be out a number of weeks but then return. Ohio State is idle next week before playing its remaining five games and then possibly the Big Ten title game and the Playoff.

Backup QB Luke Fahey hasn't been used much yet. He has equivalent completion percentage to Sayin on a very small sample (9 of 13). What's interesting is his risk/reward pattern so far: in just 13 attempts he has 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. If Sayin threw like that, he'd have 30 TDs and 30 picks. 

Those are mostly stats from scrub time against Ball State (59-3) and Kent State (56-3). He was 0 for 2 against Indiana. Fahey is a 5-star prospect, but throwing picks against both Ball State and Kent State in just 11 attempts is a concern.

Luckily Ohio State has really good receivers, Jeremiah Smith first and foremost among them. Smith probably wasn't on the field during those 11 attempts against Ball and Kent. And Ohio State has a good running game, too. So while Ohio State's #10 adjusted scoring offense might slip a bit, there's no reason to think it will grind to a halt provided they use Fahey carefully to avoid turnovers. The Buckeyes also have the #12 adjusted scoring defense and that won't be impacted unless turnovers come into play.

The big problem for the Buckeyes going forward is their schedule; it's not easy.

After a week off, OSU faces:

6-1 USC (road)
4-2 Oregon
5-1 Northwestern
5-2 Nebraska (road)
4-2 Michigan

That's the #19 remaining schedule in the country by our reckoning. The Buckeyes are favored in every game but the cumulative odds suggest one loss (they always do).

Which is their hardest game? Probably the road game at USC. The travel, and the fact that it will be Fahey's first start, make this the game to watch to see how the Buckeyes respond.

After that he'll start to get his rhythm, and probably at some point in these five games Sayin will return despite the preparation for his continued absence. Hopefully he'll be back for the Michigan game which is always a departure from the odds, much like Texas vs. Oklahoma. We never know quite what to expect from this game, though it has gone in long streaks lately and the Buckeyes won last time out.

The takeaway is that Ohio State's 74.5% chance to make the Playoff should be considered an upper limit right now given that Justin Sayin is out, but the odds are still well above 50%. Despite a tough schedule, they should weather the storm and even if they lose to USC at 10-2 Ohio State holding a win over Indiana probably still makes the conference title game and the Playoff.

The only way things go south for the Buckeyes is if Sayin is out the rest of the year and Fahey continues to throw picks. Even that isn't a death sentence for the season, it just makes things a bit harder, with more reliance on the less-explosive run game.