Week 8 Playoff projection and bowl odds: every Conference has a problem
Two weekends of upsets and what has changed in the Playoff picture? Just two teams in aggregate. Last week BYU entered and Texas left; this week Texas entered and BYU departed. That means the only change over the past two weeks is LSU in, Texas Tech out. Ok, there's also the G6 slot, but more on that later.
Nothing is different at the top where idle Notre Dame holds down the fort at #1. They say if the Irish lose to Miami they'll be out of the Playoff but it's hard to see how. Yes they'll be in the same jam as last season but it seems more accepted this year that Notre Dame is among the top teams, and most people think they got screwed last year. Now, if they lose to SMU, too, that's different. For now the Irish are by far the most likely national title winner at 16%, and that's coming off a loss and idle week!
Miami beat Pitt convincingly enough to move to #2, up 10% in Playoff Odds and 12.5% in Bye odds. But the ACC has a problem: no one else is close. The hope for two ACC teams rests on an upset in the ACC title game. But will Miami be in if they lose to Notre Dame and lose the ACC title game? ESPN sure thinks so, giving Miami a whopping 97.4% chance to make the Playoff!! That's crazy. If their best win is Wake Forest and they lose to Wake Forest in the ACC title game, are they still a lock?
Ohio State holds at #3 while idle. They have a problem shared by most Big Ten teams: injured quarterbacks. The Buckeyes' 82.3% odds are based on Justin Sayin playin'. If his backup falters, things will change. Just ask Oregon! Indiana's Josh Hoover is hurt and the Hoosiers barely survived Michigan in overtime. UCLA already replaced injured Nico Iamaleava and with backup Ty Dieffenbach they beat Michigan State 28-10.
Record Playoff Bye Champ
LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg
1 1. Notre Dame Ind 6-1 11-1 10.5-1.5 88.6 +6.7 54.9 +9.1 16.0 +3.2
4 2. Miami FL *ACC 7-0 11-1 10.9-1.1 86.8 +10.2 50.3 +12.5 8.4 +2.1
3 3. Ohio State *B10 6-1 11-1 10.0-2.0 82.3 +7.8 48.7 +7.0 10.6 +0.1
2 4. Georgia *SEC 6-1 10-2 9.8-2.2 84.5 +4.8 43.0 +2.7 11.0 -0.5
6 5. Indiana B10 7-1 11-1 10.4-1.6 72.5 +11.8 27.1 +4.0 4.3 -0.5
9 6. Alabama SEC 6-2 9-3 9.1-2.9 75.4 +21.0 19.3 +6.4 10.7 +2.9
11 7. Utah *B12 7-0 11-1 10.4-1.6 63.3 +13.7 32.1 +9.2 2.9 +0.0
15 8. Texas SEC 5-2 9-3 8.4-3.6 63.9 +24.4 17.9 +8.2 7.7 +2.4
8 9. Mississippi SEC 5-2 10-2 8.6-3.4 55.9 -4.0 13.3 -8.3 4.5 -0.7
14 10. LSU SEC 6-2 10-2 8.8-3.2 58.7 +15.9 18.9 +6.7 11.1 +2.8
10 11. UCLA B10 7-0 11-1 10.6-1.4 52.0 +2.9 13.8 +0.3 1.1 -0.3
7 12. Brigham Young B12 6-1 10-2 9.4-2.6 49.0 -11.1 17.8 -9.5 1.9 -1.2
16 13. Kentucky SEC 7-1 9-3 9.0-3.0 49.3 +12.4 10.4 +2.9 1.4 +0.2
5 14. Texas Tech B12 6-1 11-1 9.6-2.4 41.4 -29.8 14.6 -25.0 2.2 -4.0
13 15. Houston B12 6-2 10-2 9.0-3.0 22.2 -14.2 1.9 -9.1 0.8 -1.2
The SEC has a parity problem, that's well-known. But now there are so many 2-loss SEC teams that they are starting to jump back in the Playoff. Texas beat Mississippi 34-27 and jumped back in at #8, while Mississippi only fell one spot since 2 losses is nothing for the SEC. LSU re-entered at #10 after beating Auburn 38-17. Alabama is up to #6, and Georgia, one of the few 1-loss SEC teams, is #4 after an idle week. The SEC's parity problem is becoming a problem for everyone else—you can't get rid of them with losses.
That leave one more conference with a problem—the Big Twelve. Their problem is spoilers. Without teams spoiling things the league could have had three teams in the Playoff. After UCF's overtime upset of BYU and Cincinnati beating Texas Tech 37-24 the only undefeated Big Twelve team is Utah. The Utes beat Houston 21-13 and have a clear path to the title game, with three Big Twelve teams on the wrong side of the bubble as Heather Dinich says.
Tennessee remains on the wrong side of the bubble too after their loss to South Carolina. Even Kentucky at 7-1 hasn't proved themselves to our algo yet. The SEC has five teams in and two waiting in the wings to replace any that drop out, or three if you count Florida.
Record Playoff Bye Champ
LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg
12 16. Tennessee SEC 6-2 8-4 8.2-3.8 27.7 -19.7 3.5 -10.0 1.8 -1.5
18 17. Wake Forest ACC 6-1 10-2 9.8-2.2 22.9 -0.7 3.3 +0.2 0.4 -0.1
19 18. Boise St *P12 6-1 11-1 10.1-1.9 39.2 +10.5 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.1
20 19. Florida SEC 5-2 8-4 7.6-4.4 22.2 +3.7 2.5 +0.3 0.8 +0.0
24 20. New Mexico *MWC 6-1 11-1 10.1-1.9 20.8 +6.1 0.0 -0.1 <0.1 +0.0
26 21. Arizona B12 6-1 10-2 9.0-3.0 17.3 +7.7 4.0 +2.0 0.5 +0.1
17 22. James Madison *SUNe 7-1 11-1 10.4-1.6 12.5 -22.9 0.0 -0.5 <0.1 -0.3
27 23. Liberty *CUSA 6-1 11-1 10.3-1.7 8.8 +3.1 0.0 +0.0 <0.1 +0.0
38 24. Wisconsin B10 5-2 9-3 8.6-3.4 2.5 +1.0 <0.1 +0.0 0.1 +0.0
31 25. SMU ACC 6-1 10-2 8.8-3.2 8.5 +2.5 0.6 +0.3 0.1 +0.0
The G6 picture changed quite a bit as James Madison lost their first game and fell over 20% to just 12.5% odds, with Boise State of the Pac-12 taking charge as clear favorite at nearly 40%. New Mexico dispatched North Dakota State and is the main challenger. Surprisingly Liberty moved into the picture after winning their last two games by a combined 69-9. The Flames have a loss to JMU and the Dukes outrank them in every measure so it's a bit odd that they're so close behind them. The upshot is they both have really easy schedules ahead and good shots at going 12-1.
Liberty is one of four teams entering the top 25 along with Arizona—the Wildcats are becoming yet another Big Twelve hopeful; SMU—the Mustangs beat Cal with a 42-point 2nd half and will push Wake Forest for an ACC title game spot; and Wisconsin, who beat USC 24-7 sending the Trojans out of the top 25 along with 2 other Big Ten teams. Iowa lost to Minnesota in a rousing 13-10 game while Oregon hit rock bottom with a 21-10 loss at Illinois (the Ducks have QB problems). With that, the Big Ten's 2nd tier completely washed out over the weekend.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 32 26. Northwestern B10 6-1 9-3 8.5-3.5 7.4 +2.5 100.0 +2.3 0.2 +0.1 25 27. Missouri SEC 5-2 7-5 7.3-4.7 8.8 -2.2 91.7 +0.4 0.4 -0.2 21 28. Oregon B10 4-3 8-4 7.3-4.7 3.0 -12.3 92.4 -4.7 0.1 -1.4 22 34. Iowa B10 5-2 9-3 7.8-4.2 2.4 -14.9 96.1 -2.3 0.1 -0.4 23 42. Southern Cal B10 6-2 7-5 7.6-4.4 1.3 -12.9 100.0 +0.0 <0.1 -0.7
UTSA is the American favorite and is now 7-1 with only a loss to Texas, and a far better SOS than James Madison, New Mexico, or Liberty, so why aren't they higher in the G6 race? They don't project well, with a Strength rating (#69) Much lower than all of those teams. If they win out they will be in good position but even though they are favored in every game here, note their cume expected win total is under 10.0. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both scored impressive wins (beating Mississippi State is now considered impressive) but don't have Playoff traction. South Carolina went from a 50/50 bowl team to 73% odds after upsetting Tennessee (the "sharps" didn't think it was an upset, those crazy "sharps").
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 37 29. Texas-San Antonio *AAc 7-1 11-1 9.8-2.2 7.1 +3.7 100.0 +0.0 <0.1 +0.0 35 32. Oklahoma SEC 4-3 7-5 6.4-5.6 5.4 +0.5 72.8 +12.2 0.2 -0.1 45 36. Oklahoma St B12 5-2 6-6 7.7-4.3 2.6 +0.6 94.0 +14.7 <0.1 +0.0 55 39. South Carolina SEC 4-3 6-6 6.4-5.6 2.5 +0.6 72.8 +22.6 0.1 +0.0 64 41. Central Florida B12 4-3 8-4 6.9-5.1 0.2 -0.1 83.5 +19.9 0.0 +0.0 75 48. Cincinnati B12 5-2 6-6 6.9-5.1 1.0 +0.6 89.0 +40.7 <0.1 +0.0
Also improving a lot in bowl odds were the Big Twelve spoilers, UCF and Cincy. Neither has reasonable Playoff Odds (UCF's even went down to 0.1%) but they really put a hit on BYU and Texas Tech. UFC gained 20% in bowl odds and Cincinnati a whopping 41% going from a 50/50 team to near certainty. The Bearcats case is interesting: as of last week they had 6 games left, needing 2 wins, and facing four teams with a combined 24-1 record. Assuming those were all losses, they needed to beat Iowa State and Colorado, about a 50/50 proposition I guess. Now? They need one win. Going from 4 wins to 5 is a high-leverage thing.
Duke bounced back from back-to-back losses by beating Virginia and pretty much iced a bowl game. The teams directly below, Toledo and Western Michigan, played last weekend and Toledo won 45-38. The Rockets moved ahead of the Broncos but Western Michigan still ends up MAC champs more often.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 59 52. Duke ACC 5-2 8-4 7.5-4.5 1.6 -0.1 95.5 +13.6 0.0 -0.1 60 53. Toledo MAC 6-2 10-2 9.0-3.0 <0.1 +0.0 100.0 +1.0 0.0 +0.0 53 54. Western Michigan *MAC 5-3 9-3 8.1-3.9 <0.1 +0.0 99.1 +0.4 0.0 +0.0 41 59. North Carolina ACC 4-3 6-6 6.4-5.6 0.6 -3.4 74.2 -12.3 0.0 +0.0 85 62. Illinois B10 4-3 5-7 6.1-5.9 0.1 +0.0 65.0 +30.8 0.0 +0.0 83 65. Appalachian St SUNe 5-2 7-5 7.7-4.3 <0.1 +0.0 96.2 +17.9 0.0 +0.0 84 68. West Virginia B12 5-3 5-7 6.0-6.0 <0.1 +0.0 64.9 +33.7 0.0 +0.0
North Carolina's surge came to an abrupt end with a 1-point home loss to Syracuse, something you'd expect from last year's team. Illinois' win over Oregon is something no one expected, and the Illini go from a 1/3 chance to a 2/3 chance to make a bowl game just like that. Appalachian State rides their upset of James Madison to near-certainty for a bowl appearance, while West Virginia, like Illinois, basically doubled their odds by beating TCU 24-20 on the road. That fifth win is a powerful thing.
Clemson still looks bowl bound despite an ugly home loss to Virginia Tech putting them 4-3. They have Syracuse and Georgia Tech left, but if they aren't at 6 wins by mid-November start to worry. Texas State got the win they needed over 2-5 Utah State to keep them on track for a bowl bid, with Boise State and Oregon State up next. Minnesota is 5-2 and seemingly could be alive in the Playoff race but they remain at 0.1% after upsetting Iowa; their bowl odds go into positive territory though. Tulane falls to 3-4 after a bit loss to UTSA but is still at 64% to get to six wins; their remaining schedule has Charlotte, Tulsa, and Rice, and like Clemson they'd better be at six wins by mid-November.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 61 69. Clemson ACC 4-3 6-6 6.2-5.8 0.2 -0.9 67.2 -10.6 0.0 +0.0 74 70. Texas St P12 4-3 7-5 6.5-5.5 0.2 +0.0 78.9 +12.8 0.0 +0.0 82 74. Minnesota B10 5-2 5-7 6.1-5.9 0.1 +0.0 63.6 +22.2 0.0 +0.0 69 75. Iowa St B12 3-4 5-7 5.2-6.8 0.0 -0.1 39.8 -15.6 0.0 +0.0 56 76. Tulane AAc 3-4 6-6 5.9-6.1 <0.1 -0.4 63.1 -16.7 0.0 +0.0 86 77. Arizona St B12 4-3 6-6 5.7-6.3 <0.1 +0.0 52.9 +19.1 0.0 +0.0 58 79. TCU B12 3-4 5-7 4.9-7.1 0.1 -1.0 31.9 -27.2 0.0 -0.1
Three Big Twelve teams above had varying fortunes: Iowa State got demolished by Arizona and now is underwater for a bowl bid; TCU's loss to West Virginia puts them in the hole too at 3-4; but ASU scored a solid win over Kansas State that puts the Sun Devils just above 50/50. They probably have exactly 2 wins left on their schedule, too.
In the MAC both Miami and Buffalo are 5-3, but the Redhawks are in much better bowl shape (93%) than the Bulls (59%). At a glance Miami seems to have the harder schedule left, but the teams face each other and the Bulls are on the road. Arkansas State and Marshall both bounce off the 50/50 bubble in the Sun Belt.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 79 82. Miami OH MAC 5-3 8-4 7.2-4.8 0.0 +0.0 93.4 +11.1 0.0 +0.0 72 86. North Carolina St ACC 3-4 5-7 5.2-6.8 <0.1 -0.1 39.4 -25.7 0.0 +0.0 90 89. Arkansas St SUNw 4-4 6-6 6.1-5.9 0.0 +0.0 72.5 +18.0 0.0 +0.0 100 91. Marshall SUNe 4-3 7-5 6.3-5.7 0.0 +0.0 69.0 +17.0 0.0 +0.0 96 92. Buffalo MAC 5-3 6-6 6.8-5.2 0.0 +0.0 59.2 +12.4 0.0 +0.0 107 93. Wyoming MWC 5-3 6-6 6.5-5.5 0.0 +0.0 83.9 +33.5 0.0 +0.0 113 94. Boston College ACC 4-3 5-7 5.1-6.9 <0.1 +0.0 30.6 +17.0 0.0 +0.0 109 95. Syracuse ACC 3-4 3-9 4.7-7.3 <0.1 +0.0 27.7 +10.4 0.0 +0.0
Wyoming was 50/50 last week bowl-wise but a big upset win over Air Force changed that boosting the Cowboys 33% (the 5th win strikes again). NC State hit a big snag at Stanford and now looks likely to miss a bowl game. Their odds are still higher than fellow ACC schools Boston College or Syracuse, even after those teams beat Georgia Tech and North Carolina to keep hope alive.
There are lots of woeful C-USA teams, let's face it, but some of them had good weekends. Like Middle Tennessee who beat FIU on the road to make themselves a bowl favorite (and put FIU below 50%). Delaware scored 61 points on Missouri State and inched above the 50% mark. New Mexico State beat Sam Houston and they'll need more of that to win 3 of their last 5.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 111 98. Delaware CUSA 3-4 6-6 5.7-6.3 0.0 +0.0 54.3 +13.8 0.0 +0.0 114 101. MTSU CUSA 4-3 5-7 6.1-5.9 0.0 +0.0 66.4 +25.5 0.0 +0.0 98 102. Utah St P12 2-5 3-9 4.2-7.8 0.0 -0.1 15.2 -10.1 0.0 +0.0 93 106. Florida Int'l CUSA 3-4 5-7 5.4-6.6 0.0 +0.0 47.1 -17.8 0.0 +0.0 99 107. Navy AAc 2-5 4-8 4.2-7.8 0.0 +0.0 11.4 -15.1 0.0 +0.0 115 108. New Mexico St CUSA 3-4 5-7 5.3-6.7 0.0 +0.0 42.8 +11.0 0.0 +0.0 101 109. San Jose St MWC 4-4 5-8 5.9-7.1 0.0 +0.0 28.1 -10.5 0.0 +0.0
Colorado's bowl odds took a huge hit—down 17.8%, which is down about 75% from last week's odds. It wasn't just the loss to Oklahoma State, it was the magnitude (57-24) making it very unlikely they can go 4-1 from here. San Diego State needs to go 3-1 and after falling to Colorado State that is not likely either. Troy was a 50/50 bowl team before they granted Louisiana-Monroe their first win of the season, at home no less. Bowling Green took their 6th loss (the converse of getting the 5th win) and the Bobcats are down to 2.7% bowl odds, needing a 4-0 finish against a schedule that includes the two MAC favorites Toledo and Western Michigan.
Record Playoff Bowl Champ LW Rnk Team Conf Now Proj Cume Odds %chg Odds %chg Odds %chg 91 113. Colorado B12 2-5 2-10 3.4-8.6 0.0 +0.0 6.1 -17.8 0.0 +0.0 105 116. San Diego St P12 3-5 5-7 4.1-7.9 0.0 +0.0 8.9 -19.9 0.0 +0.0 94 121. Troy SUNw 3-4 3-9 4.5-7.5 0.0 -0.1 19.4 -30.9 0.0 +0.0 118 125. Bowling Green MAC 2-6 4-8 3.5-8.5 0.0 +0.0 2.7 -12.4 0.0 +0.0 106 126. Georgia Tech ACC 2-5 2-10 2.9-9.1 0.0 -0.1 1.3 -12.2 0.0 +0.0 119 128. Kennesaw St CUSA 1-6 2-10 3.3-8.7 0.0 +0.0 6.6 -11.5 0.0 +0.0 126 129. Missouri St CUSA 2-5 4-8 3.7-8.3 0.0 +0.0 8.7 -13.1 0.0 +0.0 127 130. Sam Houston St CUSA 1-6 3-9 3.1-8.9 0.0 +0.0 3.9 -10.7 0.0 +0.0
Again, the CUSA has a slew of teams crowding the bottom of the rankings. Kennesaw State got bombed 34-6 by Liberty, Missouri State got blitzed 61-38 by Delaware, and Sam Houston got bum-rushed by New Mexico State 30-24. The fact that Kennesaw and Sam Houston still have a prayer at 1-6 is a testament to how weak the C-USA is, that winning 5 straight games in the league is more than a 1% prospect.
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