SportsRatings

Since Week One, the Playoff picture hasn't been changing as much as evolving. Each week brings small change, one or two teams replaced at most. A good projection really should be immune from wholesale change, since it is looking ahead to the end of the season. But Week Seven was an unprecedented weekend of upsets, certainly the Playoff picture is radically different as a result? Nope. One change. Five Playoff teams lost last week and just one— Texas —dropped out of the seeding. One— Notre Dame —actually moved up and into the #1 seed! Georgia —who unlike the Irish were upset by an unranked team—fell one spot to #2, but remain at around 80% odds to make the Playoff. Indiana fell a single spot and lost single digits of Odds. Alabama's loss was their second, so they fell further but remain over 50%. The #1, #2, #4, #5, and #7 teams lost, so the effect across the top 11 was limited compared to what it would be if "bubble" teams had lost. To see where the real damage was ...

 #2 Daniel Dubois , SportsRatings Interim Heavyweight Champion, rematches #4 Fabio Wardley . Last time around Wardley almost ended things early, then Dubois did end things late after battering Wardley for many rounds. Round-by-round scoring: Dubois hits Wardley hard and gets a knockdown with his first punch, ref keeps him from following up as Wardley sits against the ropes. Wardley looks ok after 8 count. Dubois is going for the kill but can't get it. Wardley is swinging for the fences with every punch. Dubois is battering Wardley but he remains standing. Dubois ends round with huge flurry but can't drop him again. Dubois 10-8 Both fighters are more cautious early in round 2, probably tired as hell after round one. It's Dubois who gets in the first good shots near mid-round, definitely outboxing Wardley who is still swinging wide and leading with uppercuts. Wardley's chin is crazy, probably to his detriment. He's getting hit hard just like the last fight except Dub...

Week 7 : Dead center of the college football season. We know a lot but we have a lot left to learn. The biggest games this weekend are #5 Indiana vs. #8 Ohio State , and #2 Notre Dame vs. #13 BYU . The first game determines who will be the Big Ten leader. Ohio State needs a win here or they're on the Playoff bubble with losses to two solid Playoff teams. Indiana won't have a big win to hang their hat on without beating the Buckeyes. But both teams will still control their destiny to getting in the Playoff. The 2nd game might be more important: Notre Dame needs the win because they don't have many big games, and if they lose those their Playoff chances are poor. BYU on the other hand is carrying the Big Twelve on its back: beating Notre Dame opens up the chance for 2 or 3 bids for the conference, maybe even four in a perfect storm.  #4 Alabama looks to bounce back at #20 Tennessee and the Tide can't take that one lightly. #18 Missouri can probably replace #11 Ole Miss...

SEC and Big Ten teams fall out of the Playoff, replaced by SEC and Big Ten teams, but the Big Twelve is waiting in the wings to claim FOUR spots. Can they do it? First let's cover the action at the very top. Georgia bumps Notre Dame to #2 after beating Alabama 20-17. It was bound to happen, sooner or later, that a team with a shot at going 13-0 would replace a team that can only go 12-0. The Irish won 58-7 but everyone is doing that to Stanford. Alabama held at #4 while Miami moved up despite being idle; that happens when two teams above you lose. The other loser was Texas , who predictably lost to Oklahoma 27-24 to ruin their perfect season; the Longhorns drop to #7, still in the Playoff, just above Ohio State whom they beat (by a point) a few weeks ago. Indiana struggled past Nebraska 20-17 but surprisingly remained the most-likely Big Ten champ according to our sim. Record Playoff Bye Champ LW Rnk Team ...

Obviously the big game this weekend is #2 Georgia at #4 Alabama , two teams that seem headed for the Playoff and both in the running for top-4 "bye" position. The opening line matches our line, Georgia by 3, but betting has pushed the line to Alabama by 1 1/2, which makes sense given that the Tide are #1 in unbiased power ratings right now and playing at home. Will the winner replace  #1 Notre Dame ? Depends on whether the Irish beat Stanford bad enough. The Cardinal have already lost to Miami by 39 and Wake Forest by 54, so Notre Dame needs to win by 7 touchdowns to please our algo.  #3 Texas vs. Oklahoma is almost an afterthought this year, but on those years it seems there's usually an upset. Two Big Ten games will test upstarts:  #6 Indiana visits 5-0 Nebraska, and #10 Oregon hosts #19 UCLA . We favor two "unranked" teams at home: Washington over #25 Iowa , and Penn State over #23 USC . Vegas adds Kansas State over #16 Houston , but we have the Cougars b...

Five weeks in and the Playoff picture has hardly evolved, let alone changed drastically. One small change this week, which could be reversed, otherwise business as usual. Notre Dame is still on top despite a tepid win over UNC; they added to their Playoff Odds and are still the only team above 50% to finish in the top 4. It did ding their National Title odds, making #2 Georgia the new favorite to win it all. The Bulldogs handled Vandy easily and remained the SEC favorite headed into a showdown with #4 Alabama , who now ranks as the best team in the country per unbiased power ratings after taking down Mississippi State 56-23. Texas was idle before the Oklahoma game. That gives the SEC three of the four "bye" spots, a situation that will rectify itself but since Texas plays neither the Bulldogs nor the Tide it might take a while and the SEC could end up with two teams in the top four. Projected Playoff picture for games through 10/03/2026 ...

With only 4 games down so far, there is a big discrepancy with some teams between how they rate in FBS games vs. All Games, the latter being when FCS games are factored in (our All-Division Strength power rating). The reason is that a 3-game sample is small enough for some messy data, and adding an extra game into the mix can change a lot. Some teams struggled with their FCS foe or blew them away, changing their rating. Over the weeks these two different rankings will draw much closer together, but never completely come to a full consensus. Here are some of the biggest ranking differences. Utah is #1 if you don't count their 66-14 win over Idaho, which doesn't seem that bad, it just wasn't up to the level of their FBS games so far. Not #1 worthy. #3/7 Georgia beat Tennessee State 63-3 and still they are lower when that game is counted (it was their "worst" game by 9 points). Notre Dame has played all FBS teams so their rank isn't very different, and #4/5 Al...