How the Top 25 Fared Week 6: Georgia vs. Alabama, and the rest

Obviously the big game this weekend is #2 Georgia at #4 Alabama, two teams that seem headed for the Playoff and both in the running for top-4 "bye" position. The opening line matches our line, Georgia by 3, but betting has pushed the line to Alabama by 1 1/2, which makes sense given that the Tide are #1 in unbiased power ratings right now and playing at home. Will the winner replace #1 Notre Dame? Depends on whether the Irish beat Stanford bad enough. The Cardinal have already lost to Miami by 39 and Wake Forest by 54, so Notre Dame needs to win by 7 touchdowns to please our algo. 

#3 Texas vs. Oklahoma is almost an afterthought this year, but on those years it seems there's usually an upset. Two Big Ten games will test upstarts: #6 Indiana visits 5-0 Nebraska, and #10 Oregon hosts #19 UCLA. We favor two "unranked" teams at home: Washington over #25 Iowa, and Penn State over #23 USC. Vegas adds Kansas State over #16 Houston, but we have the Cougars by a point. Another one to watch: Pitt vs. UNC, where the Vegas line is just -3 due to Pitt's QB injury, while we have them at an injury-ignorant -15!

And in the G6 race, it's #12 James Madison at Georgia Southern, #15 Boise State at Fresno State, and #21 North Dakota State in a tight game at UNLV. We have wider lines across the board: -11/-7/-5 vs. -7.5/-6.5/-3. #22 New Mexico is idle; the Lobos are currently favored to beat North Dakota State twice and win the Mountain West but it's tight and the UNLV game results could change that.

This post will be updated through Saturday's results.

Rnk Team              Conf Rec Proj  Odds  This weekend (Vegas/SR line) RESULT(+/-)
 1. Notre Dame        Ind  5-0 12-0  83.4  Stanford(2-3) (+38.5/+49)
 2. Georgia          *SEC  5-0 12-0  77.6 @#4 Alabama (-1.5/+3)
 3. Texas             SEC  4-0 12-0  72.4 =Oklahoma(2-2) (+7.5/+9)
 4. Alabama           SEC  5-0 10-2  68.0  #2 Georgia (+1.5/-3)
 5. Miami FL         *ACC  5-0 11-1  66.5  idle
 6. Indiana          *B10  5-0 12-0  62.5 @Nebraska(5-0) (+7.5/+17)
 7. Texas Tech       *B12  5-0 12-0  57.5  idle
 8. Ohio State        B10  4-1 10-2  49.8  Maryland(2-3) (+34.5/+35)
 9. LSU               SEC  4-1 10-2  52.8 @Kentucky(4-1) (+8.5/+13)
10. Oregon            B10  3-1 10-2  50.0  #19 UCLA (+11.5/+23)
11. Utah              B12  4-0 11-1  39.9  Kansas(2-2) (+15.5/+11)
12. James Madison    *SUNe 5-0 12-0  34.6 @GA Southern(2-3) (+7.5/+11)
13. Brigham Young     B12  4-0 10-2  33.9  Iowa St(3-2) (+10.5/+19)
14. Mississippi       SEC  3-1  8-4  31.1 @Vanderbilt(3-2) (+10/+9)
15. Boise St         *P12  4-1 11-1  29.3 @Fresno St(4-1) (+6.5/+7)
16. Houston           B12  4-1 10-2  23.6 @Kansas St(3-1) (-2.5/+1)
17. Tennessee         SEC  4-1  8-4  24.0 @Arkansas(2-3) (+13.5/+13)
18. Pittsburgh        ACC  5-0 10-2  16.8  UNC(2-2) (+3.5/+15)
19. UCLA              B10  4-0  9-3  20.9 @#10 Oregon (-11.5/-23)
20. Florida           SEC  4-1  8-4  17.7  S. Carolina(2-3) (+12.5/+9)
21. North Dakota St   MWC  5-0 11-1  16.5 @UNLV(3-2) (+3/+5)
22. New Mexico       *MWC  4-1 11-1  17.3  idle
23. Southern Cal      B10  5-1  8-4  11.5 @Penn State(3-2) (-1.5/-5)
24. Missouri          SEC  4-1  6-6  15.6  Texas A&M(3-2) (+3.5/-9)
25. Iowa              B10  4-1  9-3  12.6 @Washington(3-2) (-3.5/-5)

Friday's games: #25 Iowa at Washington and Iowa State at #13 BYU kick off the weekend's big games.