SportsRatings

Apparently a "consenus" has formed and Ohio State is the clear team to beat for the national title. After all they just beat Illinois handily, 34-16. Wait a sec, didn't Indiana beat Illinois 63-10? And didn't the Hoosiers just beat Oregon on the road? Indiana is the top team in our Playoff Projection. The Hoosiers win the Big Ten more often than the Buckeyes. The win over Oregon adds another 11.7% to their odds putting them at a eye-popping 99.3%. How can that be? Check their schedule and tell me which two (or three?) teams will beat them to knock them out of the top 12. The same thing goes for #2 Miami , who does have seven games left so the Canes have a paltry 96.9%. Then Ohio State follows at 94.2%. The Hoosiers so dominate our power ratings (and beat even our spread against Oregon) that they remarkably added 10.9% to their odds of winning the national title, now a crazy 29.3% Ohio State is 2nd at a distant 12.5%. The home loss sent Oregon tumbling. Our #1 proje...

How can it be that the two teams whose fortunes switched at the same instant after playing each other? UCLA and Penn State played last week, with UCLA pulling off the huge upset. This week the two teams continued their new trajectory, with UCLA beating Michigan State soundly 38-13, and Penn State getting upset at home vs. Northwestern. How fall has Penn State fallen in the last two games? Season ratings for Penn State Game Opponent Score Rating #143 Nevada 46-11 66.2 #156 Florida Int'l 34- 0 61.9 #169 Villanova 52- 6 72.1 # 6 Oregon 24-30 75.5 @ # 76 UCLA 37-42 47.6 # 67 Northwestern 21-22 49.3 Penn State's average game rating over the first four weeks is 68.93. Note that the Oregon game is their highest-rated game, so that loss wasn't when the downfall occurred; they were at their best. But the next two losses were both abysmal, and average 48.45, abo...

UCLA just beat Michigan State on the road, 38-13 a week after beating Penn State 42-37. How good does that make them? Just in the last two games, of course. Before that, they were horrible. Let's see how their games compare: Season ratings for UCLA Game Opponent Score Rating #15 Utah 10-43 38.0 @ #86 UNLV 23-30 43.8 #60 New Mexico 10-35 27.1 @ #79 Northwestern 14-17 48.7 #29 Penn State 42-37 68.0 @ #76 Michigan St 38-13 77.3 For the first four games, UCLA averaged a 39.4 rating, which would rank them around #113 in the nation.  For the last two games, they're around 72.65, which puts them in the top 25 around #15. Will this continue? Are the rest of their opponents in trouble as UCLA embarks on the ultimate Spoiler Season? They face Indiana and Ohio State later on and the Bruins are no longer an automatic win even playing at home. Nor will USC have an eas...

Mississippi barely edged Washington State, 24-21 at home this afternoon. They were around a 32 1/2 point favorite The problem was the Ole Miss offense, who should have scored 59 points and I can prove it: Rank Team Rec Offense [rnk] Scored vs. Wash St . 8. North Texas 5-0 67.50 [ 8] 59 9. Mississippi 5-0 67.27 [ 9] 24 10. Washington 4-1 67.24 [ 10] 59 In the All-Division power rating, Mississippi's offense ranked almost exactly the same as Washington and North Texas. Both those teams scored 59 points on Washington State. No doubt the Rebels' O will drop out of the top ten when ratings are updated. What happened? I think Lane Kiffin's head got big and the team believed the hype. After beating LSU Kiffin started saying the SEC's "dynasties" were over, implying that Ole Miss was neck and neck with the best in the league.  And how can his team take Washi...

The South Florida Bulls took a big step toward the Playoff with a 63-36 win at North Texas last night. Going into the game North Texas and Memphis were neck and neck as the expected American conference winner, with South Florida a close 3rd—mainly because the Bulls had to play both Memphis and North Texas on the road. Playoff Projection as of last week: Curr Projected Simulation Odds Rank Team Conf Rec Chalk Cume Playoff chg Bowl % chg Champ % chg 17. North Texas AAc 5-0 12-0 10.8-1.2 28.1 +4.3 >99.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 18. Memphis *AAc 6-0 12-0 10.5-1.5 29.9 +4.9 100.0 +0.1 0.2 +0.1 25. South Florida AAc 4-1 9-3 9.2-2.8 20.0 -2.6 99.8 +0.2 0.2 0.0 But one big hurdle is out of the way, and the Bulls cleared it with ease. Now the Bulls are neck and neck with Memphis, even slightly ahead as their improved power rating gives them the edge in a potential conferen...

Week 7 is upon us—we're nearing the midpoint of the season. The biggest game this week on paper is a huge Big Ten clash between Oregon and Indiana. But it's probably not the "highest leverage" game in terms of inclusion in the Playoff. That would be South Florida at North Texas. Don't get me wrong: Indiana at Oregon is huge. Indiana might be the best team in the country. Maybe not. Maybe that's Oregon instead. But in any case this is a key Big Ten game and the winner is clearly in charge of the Big Ten race, ahead of even Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Texas but haven't defeated Illinois like Indiana did, or Penn State like Oregon did. And the winner Saturday will add another important skin. Oregon is a 6 1/2 point favorite at home, which is probably fair, though I'd title toward Indiana a bit more than that. No one knows what to think of the Hoosiers but their 63-10 blowout of Illinois sure looks better in retrospect than Oregon's overtime win at...

Week 6's upsets hit four teams hard in terms of Playoff Odds, while the rest of the nation outside our projected Top 25 is more concerned with bowl eligibility. The four teams below were bit by the upset bug last week and it wasn't pretty for their bowl odds. Louisville was undefeated before losing at home in overtime to Virginia. They'd settled in below the projected field with 22% Playoff Odds, and with a forgiving ACC schedule they just had to keep winning. Instead they drop 11 spots to #29 and their Playoff Odds are a limp 7.5%. Iowa State fared about the same. Also undefeated, the Cyclones were outside our Top 25 but ready to jump in when they were blindsided by Cincinnati, down 31-7 before a futile rally made it 38-30 at the end. Iowa State fell from 17% odds to 6%. Curr Projected Simulation Odds LW Rank Team Conf Rec Chalk Cume Playoff chg Bowl % chg Champ % chg 18 29. Louisville ...