2025 week 7 Playoff Hype: Indiana is the real team to beat

Apparently a "consenus" has formed and Ohio State is the clear team to beat for the national title. After all they just beat Illinois handily, 34-16. Wait a sec, didn't Indiana beat Illinois 63-10? And didn't the Hoosiers just beat Oregon on the road?

Indiana is the top team in our Playoff Projection. The Hoosiers win the Big Ten more often than the Buckeyes. The win over Oregon adds another 11.7% to their odds putting them at a eye-popping 99.3%. How can that be? Check their schedule and tell me which two (or three?) teams will beat them to knock them out of the top 12. The same thing goes for #2 Miami, who does have seven games left so the Canes have a paltry 96.9%. Then Ohio State follows at 94.2%. The Hoosiers so dominate our power ratings (and beat even our spread against Oregon) that they remarkably added 10.9% to their odds of winning the national title, now a crazy 29.3% Ohio State is 2nd at a distant 12.5%.

The home loss sent Oregon tumbling. Our #1 projected team two weeks ago, the Ducks lose 22.6% and are now a 50/50 Playoff team at #10. The reason wasn't just the loss to Indiana, but the ever-diminishing returns of their schedule. The 69-3 blowout of Oklahoma State looks less amazing each week. Oregon State is now 0-7. And of course the overtime win at Penn State looks like something any team could do. The Ducks are still favored to win out but not being in the Big Ten title game in most sim runs really hurts.

Texas Tech continued their domination of the Big Twelve, beating Kansas 42-17 to remain in the top four, up 15% to pass the 90% certainty mark. A 2nd Big Twelve team tentatively enters at #12; Utah lost to Texas Tech a few weeks ago and has rebounded strongly, including a 42-10 win over Arizona State last night. The Utes add a solid 17% but are only around 41%, easily the lowest of the field at this point.

                                  Curr  Projected         Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec Chalk  Cume  Playoff  chg  Bowl%  chg Champ% chg
  2   1. Indiana            *B10  6-0 12-0 11.7-0.3  99.3 +11.7 100.0  +0.1 29.3 +10.9
  1   2. Miami FL           *ACC  5-0 12-0 11.4-0.6  96.9  +4.8 >99.9   0.0  9.8  +2.1
  4   3. Ohio State          B10  6-0 12-0 11.3-0.7  94.2 +19.5 100.0  +0.1 12.5  +4.0
  3   4. Texas Tech         *B12  6-0 12-0 11.4-0.6  90.4 +15.1 100.0  +0.1  7.7  +2.3
  7   5. Alabama            *SEC  5-1 11-1  9.9-2.1  84.0 +10.2 >99.9  +0.2  8.2  -2.8
  9   6. Texas A&M           SEC  6-0 10-2 10.1-1.9  67.0 +18.2 100.0  +0.1  2.9  +0.7
  5   7. Mississippi         SEC  6-0 10-2 10.0-2.0  58.9 -14.6 100.0  +0.1  1.6  -3.8
 10   8. Notre Dame          Ind  4-2 10-2  9.3-2.7  56.3 +15.8 >99.9   0.0  6.0  +1.9
 12   9. Georgia             SEC  5-1 11-1  9.4-2.6  56.6 +19.8 >99.9  +1.5  2.6  +0.2
  6  10. Oregon              B10  5-1 11-1  9.8-2.2  49.6 -22.6 >99.9   0.0  5.3  -7.2
 25  11. South Florida      *AAc  5-1 10-2 10.1-1.9  51.2 +31.2 >99.9  +0.1  0.4  +0.2
 19  12. Utah                B12  5-1 11-1  9.9-2.1  40.8 +16.9 >99.9  +0.6  2.7  +1.4

Alabama beat Missouri and gains 10% to sit at 84% odd, pretty good for a team with an early loss. But note that their Championship odds slipped to 8.2%. The 27-24 win displeased the victory margin gods. Still, the Tide are favored to win the SEC title, with three contenders close behind: Texas A&M, who trounced Florida 34-17 to add 18% and sit at 2 in 3 odds overall; Mississippi, who laid an egg against Washington State and nearly became the next Penn State; and Georgia, who beat Auburn and pushed their way into the projected field, up 20% to 56.6%. Ole Miss lost almost 15% despite holding on for a 24-21 win. The Cougars had given up 59 points twice already this season and the Rebels should have matched that, or at least gotten to 30!

Notre Dame is the only 2-loss team in the projection. Their remaining schedule is a big reason, as the likelihood of going 10-2 is high and it doesn't look like there will be dozens of 10-2 conference teams to push them out. We'll have to see. Their 36-7 win over NC State bumped the Irish up 15.8% to 56.3%, nearly matching their early-season high mark (58.3%). 

The biggest gainer is new entry South Florida, who takes over the American Athletic Conference in a big way after clubbing North Texas 56-36 on the road. The Bulls are up 31.2% to top the 50% mark as the win gave them a clear path to the AAC title game even if they lose to Memphis later in the season. And as is becoming clear, whoever wins the AAC is going to make the Playoff. At this rate USF has a shot at an at-large bid, too.

Oklahoma fell out of the field after a predicable loss to Texas, and Florida State dropped off the last-team-in status with a not-predictable loss to Pittsburgh. Both lost nearly 25% odds but the Sooners still have a decent shot at 31.3%, whereas the 3-loss Seminole have just 13.3% which still seems generous. Oklahoma has a killer remaining schedule but that also gives opportunity; they will either rise and make the Playoff or fall off the face of the Earth. FSU is more likely to tread water in the top 25 but see their Playoff odds dwindle. If the Playoff has room for a 9-3 team, the win over Alabama is looking better and better, but that assumes the Noles can regain their mojo and win out.

Idle Virginia, also from the ACC, probably needs help to get much beyond their 26%. A dismal remaining schedule both helps and hurts—they can't afford to play WSU next week as close as Ole Miss did. Southern Cal rocketed up to first-four-out status by beating Michigan soundly and nearly doubling their odds. They could double them again next week when they travel to Notre Dame. BYU escaped Arizona with a double overtime win and thus gained just 3.2%, but they can take Utah's Playoff spot next week by beating the Utes, overtime or not.

                                  Curr  Projected         Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec Chalk  Cume  Playoff  chg  Bowl%  chg Champ% chg
 14  13. Virginia            ACC  5-1 10-2 10.0-2.0  26.1  +5.8 >99.9   0.0  0.3  +0.1
 24  14. Southern Cal        B10  5-1  9-3  9.1-2.9  31.7 +14.2  99.9  +0.5  3.4  +1.5
 20  15. Brigham Young       B12  6-0 10-2  9.4-2.6  27.8  +3.2 100.0  +0.8  0.7   0.0
  8  16. Oklahoma            SEC  5-1  9-3  8.4-3.6  31.3 -23.6  98.1  -1.0  1.4  -3.3
 11  17. Florida St          ACC  3-3  9-3  8.2-3.8  13.3 -24.7  99.2  -0.7  0.9  -2.8
 15  18. LSU                 SEC  5-1  8-4  8.2-3.8  25.5  -5.7  99.3  +1.5  0.9  -1.0
 18  19. Memphis             AAc  6-0 11-1 10.4-1.6  29.9   0.0 100.0   0.0  0.1  -0.1
 21  20. Vanderbilt          SEC  5-1  9-3  8.8-3.2  24.0  +3.2  99.2  +0.2  0.8  -0.2
 26  21. Georgia Tech        ACC  6-0 10-2  9.5-2.5  14.9  +2.2 100.0  +0.4  0.1   0.0
 22  22. Tennessee           SEC  5-1 10-2  8.3-3.7  15.8  -4.0  99.7  +2.5  0.3  -0.5
 16  23. Illinois            B10  5-2  9-3  8.7-3.3   7.5 -18.5  99.8  +0.1  0.2  -0.6
 27  24. Nebraska            B10  5-1  9-3  9.1-2.9  13.1  +1.5  99.8  +1.1  0.4   0.0
 13  25. Michigan            B10  4-2  9-3  8.3-3.7  11.9 -21.0  98.5  -0.5  0.5  -2.0

Memphis is still in great position in the American; after an idle week they are still favored to beat USF (by 1) but to lose at East Carolina (by 1). That would put them in the title game which would put them in the Playoff with a win. Their odds remained unchanged but USF's win knocked North Texas out of the running, for the most part.

Three more SEC teams still have hope to move up the Top 25 into the top 12. LSU had another "win-is-a-win" performance beating South Carolina 20-10 at home, which dinged the Tigers odds over 5%. Vanderbilt was idle but gained 3.2%. The two teams face each other next week in Nashville. Tennessee had big trouble at home with Arkansas before winning 34-31; for our algorithm the struggle hurt more than the win helps and the Vols lost 4% down to 15.8%.

The Big Ten has three Playoff teams right now to the SEC's four, and both Illinois and Michigan move in the wrong direction this week. The Illini lost to Ohio State meaning they've been trounced by the top two teams. Two losses doesn't kill a team's odds but losing by a combined 71 points in those losses does; Illinois is down to 7.5% odds from last week's 26%. Michigan's 2nd loss hurt them too—to the tune of 21%—but they are at least still in double digits around 12%. 

And Nebraska is new to the top 25 after a 5-1 start, with 13.1% odds. They lost to the Wolverines at home by a field goal but have only that loss. And an interesting remaining schedule with both UCLA and Penn State on it, who knows what will happen! Also re-entering is Georgia Tech, who dropped out a few weeks ago when they needed overtime to beat Wake Forest. Our algorithm decided that going 6-0 is more significant right now, and even a 15-point win over struggling Virginia Tech is good enough.