Now Penn State: How far have they fallen?

How can it be that the two teams whose fortunes switched at the same instant after playing each other?

UCLA and Penn State played last week, with UCLA pulling off the huge upset.

This week the two teams continued their new trajectory, with UCLA beating Michigan State soundly 38-13, and Penn State getting upset at home vs. Northwestern.

How fall has Penn State fallen in the last two games?

Season ratings for Penn State                 

Game   Opponent            Score Rating
  #143 Nevada              46-11  66.2 
  #156 Florida Int'l       34- 0  61.9 
  #169 Villanova           52- 6  72.1 
  #  6 Oregon              24-30  75.5 
@ # 76 UCLA                37-42  47.6 
  # 67 Northwestern        21-22  49.3 

Penn State's average game rating over the first four weeks is 68.93. Note that the Oregon game is their highest-rated game, so that loss wasn't when the downfall occurred; they were at their best.

But the next two losses were both abysmal, and average 48.45, about 20 points worse than they were before.

That's roughly a decline from #24 to #84. Not quite as dramatic as UCLA playing like #113 and then #15 in their last two games, but significant still.

So we ask, was it a coincidence that two teams that were ready to completely diverge from their previous performance met on the key weekend?

If they had played other teams, would UCLA have come alive, and would Penn State have declined?

I think the key is UCLA. Something clearly changed to make them get better. And Penn State was "down" and ripe for the picking. That upset loss just made matters worse for Penn State's psyche.

So UCLA's resurgence is real. It's a combo of their new offensive scheme, and, as a result of the Penn State win, finally having confidence.

Penn State's decline is all due to depression and desperation. The team is in shambles. But it only happened because they met a UCLA team on the upswing. If they had an easier opponent—or ironically, a tougher one, since UCLA was considered an easy game—they might have made it through unscathed, then played well at home vs. Northwestern. Instead, they returned home ashamed of the UCLA loss and played poorly at home. What happens next is anyone's guess.