Bubble Report: March 10 2026 results

Using my new Conference Tournament Wins Needed system, let's see how the bubble teams have done, updated as results come in.

The above-the-waterline teams. So far SMU has come out on top 86-69 over Syracuse and should make the tournament as a play-in team if they lose their next game. Beating Louisville would seal the deal.

But Stanford was upset by Pitt 64-63 and faces as tough road to an at-large bid; they better hope a bunch of bubble teams lose and that very little bid-stealing occurs among the champs.  California and Texas don't play until tomorrow. Santa Clara lost to Gonzaga but should be in regardless, though there is no guarantee.

                                     At-lg    Conf  Seed    Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds   %Odds  Proj    +0w  +1w  +2w

 41. SMU                  ACC  19-12  60.0     0.2   11     50%  11p   9 
 42. Santa Clara          WCC  26-7   56.0    19.4   11p    11p  10   10 
 43. California           ACC  21-10  52.6     0.1   11p    11p  11p  10 
 44. Stanford             ACC  20-11  51.9     0.1   11p    30%  11p   9 
 45. Texas                SEC  18-13  46.6     1.7   11p    25%  40%  45%

And the teams below the bubble:

Virginia Tech lost to Wake Forest in overtime and it probably out of luck barring chaos.

                                     At-lg    Conf  Seed    Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds   %Odds  Proj    +0w  +1w  +w2

 46. New Mexico           MWC  22-9   44.4    18.9          30%  35%  11p
 47. VCU                  A10  24-7   41.7    25.2          30%  30%  50%
 48. Virginia Tech        ACC  19-12  40.5     0.3          10%  30%  11p
 49. San Diego St.        MWC  20-10  40.0    17.2          35%  40%  45%
 50. Miami OH             MAC  31-0   38.6    26.0          15%  30%  35%
 51. Indiana              B10  18-13  36.7     0.5          15%  20%  11p
 52. West Virginia        B12  18-13  33.6     0.1          ---  20%  45%
 53. Cincinnati           B12  17-14  30.8     0.3          ---  ---  45%
 54. Boise St.            MWC  20-11  30.0    11.5          ---  10%  10%
 55. South Florida        Amer 23-8   22.7    39.0    11    ---  ---  11 
 56. Seton Hall           BE   20-11  24.0     4.0          ---  20%  11 

In the Big Twelve Cincinnati came through with a win over Utah and stayed alive. Losing their next game to UCF would probably end their hopes though, while beating the Knights but losing to Arizona (+2w) puts them right on the waterline.

No other teams play tonight. South Florida doesn't play until Saturday!