How many conference tournament wins does each team need?

I don't know why I never made this before now: A feature showing how many wins a team needs in their conference tournament to make the field.

Probably never did it because it's impossible to make exactly accurate, but it's a nice yardstick: from this point on, what will happen if your team loses its next conference tournament game? (W0 column). What if they win one game, then lose? (W1) And what if they win two games, and then lose, if that is possible? (W2). I don't take it beyond two games because there are only so many columns available and because it's not worth projecting three games out until getting there becomes realistic.

When judging a team's situation, all other games are set at Chalk, i.e. no upsets.

Here is the March 9 status, for conference games played on the 10th and beyond, for the teams most interested in this stat: the bubble teams:

The top team affected is SMU, who, according to the Dance Chance, will be a very borderline team if they lose to Syracuse. 50% means they aren't expected to make it but could be First Team Out. But if they win that game and lose to Louisville they get a play-in spot. Beat Louisville and they're a 9-seed! You see how this goes.

Santa Clara already punched their card by beating St. Mary's last night, and losing to Gonzaga shouldn't knock them out. Beat the Zags and they move up to a 10.

More ACC teams follow. California is not a bracketologist darling but we have them in the field even if they lose their first ACC game, but any play-in spot is not exactly secure. Two wins and they are more secure with a 10-seed, but that would mean beating Duke, so the W1 column might be more realistic and that still has them a play-in team. Stanford barely makes our current projected field but lose to Pitt and their odds fall to 30%.  One win preserves their play-in status and beating NC State again puts them firmly in the field. The Dance Chance is probably being a bit kind to Stanford, we'll see how it goes.

                                     At-lg         Conf          Seed      Conf Tourn
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed Proj Pre   W0   W1   W2

 41. SMU                  ACC  19-12  60.0  -0.5    0.2        11   11    50%  11p   9 
 42. Santa Clara          WCC  26-7   56.0 +12.6   19.4        11p        11p  10   10 
 43. California           ACC  21-10  52.6  -1.1    0.1        11p  11p   11p  11p  10 
 44. Stanford             ACC  20-11  51.9  -1.6    0.1        11p  11p   30%  11p   9 
 45. Texas                SEC  18-13  46.6  -1.7    1.7        11p  11p   25%  40%  45%

Texas is now our last team in but they will have to do a lot of work to stay there. A loss to Ole Miss hurts their chances a lot, and even beating them doesn't hold their spot. Even beating Georgia in the 2nd game puts them right on the bubble line, but not in. Probably why their at-large odds are only 46.6%.

Below the waterline there isn't any team that can get in with one conference tournament win, and few that make it with two wins. The Mountain West has three teams below. New Mexico gets in with two wins, where they would likely have to beat San Diego State. The Aztecs come really close but don't punch a ticket with the same performance and a win over the Lobos, and they already slipped out of the seeding since Sunday for unknown reasons (ghost in the machine). Boise State has little chance even with two wins, so we'll have to wait a while to see what happens to the Broncos if they reach the finals.

VCU is close to a bid but the A10 tourney doesn't help them unless they win two games; that puts them right on the waterline, and of course three wins gets them an auto-bid.  Virginia Tech needs two ACC tournament wins just to be a precarious 11-seed play-in; is beating Wake Forest and Clemson, and losing the UNC enough, when there are so many ACC teams in contention?

                                     At-lg         Conf          Seed      Conf Tourn
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed Proj Pre   W0   W1   W2

 46. New Mexico           MWC  22-9   44.4  +4.5   18.9                   30%  35%  11p
 47. VCU                  A10  24-7   41.7  -2.1   25.2                   30%  30%  50%
 48. Virginia Tech        ACC  19-12  40.5  -0.3    0.3                   10%  30%  11p
 49. San Diego St.        MWC  20-10  40.0  -4.3   17.2             11p   35%  40%  45%
 50. Miami OH             MAC  31-0   38.6  -1.0   26.0                   15%  30%  35%
 51. Indiana              B10  18-13  36.7  -0.9    0.5                   15%  20%  11p
 52. West Virginia        B12  18-13  33.6  -0.1    0.1                   ---  20%  45%
 53. Cincinnati           B12  17-14  30.8  -0.6    0.3                   ---  ---  45%
 54. Boise St.            MWC  20-11  30.0  -3.3   11.5                   ---  10%  10%
 55. South Florida        Amer 23-8   22.7  +0.1   39.0        11         ---  ---  11 
 56. Seton Hall           BE   20-11  24.0  -0.3    4.0                   ---  20%  11 

Miami of Ohio is the team on everyone's mind as far as at-large bids go. In reality, I bet the Committee has already decided to give the Redhawks a play-in slot if they lose in their tournament. By our numbers their odds grow with each win but won't surpass their current 38.6% unless they win three—in which case they'd have an auto-bid anyway. 

Indiana is an interesting case. A true bubble team, in our Chalk scenario they'd play Northwestern; losing to the Wildcats or beating them doesn't make much difference, they need to beat Purdue in game two to punch their ticket, and even then it's no guaranteee if they lose to Nebraska after that.   

West Virginia and Cincinnati are Big Twelve hopefuls. Cincinnati plays in the first round so getting one win isn't any help. A second win over UCF, followed by a loss to Arizona, puts them really close. The Mountaineers have a first-round bye which means their first win is a bit of a help, then they play Houston; surprisingly winning that one doesn't guarantee them a spot! But losing a game after that means they will have 14 losses at 20-14. 

South Florida is once again favored to win the American and would get an 11-seed if they do. But if they fall short—winning one game and losing to say, Tulsa? They don't have really any chance. 

Finally, Seton Hall is the lowest-rated team that can turn their fortunes around in two games. The Pirates are obviously sunk if they lose to Creighton. Beating the Bluejays gives them a bit of a prayer, but beating St. John's in the next game puts them pretty firmly in the tourney, even accounting for a subsequent loss to UConn. 

I will keep updating these numbers every day until Selection Sunday.