Week 9 Bowl odds update: K-State, Washington State both up 60% in past few weeks

Outside the top 25, there is still scattered and limited Playoff hope, especially for the team at #26, Memphis following their upset of South Florida. It didn't project them into the top 25 or boost their odds in a huge way, but it put the Tigers right around 10%. We covered all of this (the American conference) here. Illinois' loss to Washington was their third and knocked the Illini down to 0.0% Playoff odds. Makes sense; you can't lose (even to good teams) by 53, 18, and 17 and have a shot at the Playoff. So why does Florida State gain 0.3%—doubling their odds!—on a bye week? They have 4 losses and zero chance. But every algorithm has its hidden issues, and here I think the Alabama win is getting ginned out of all proportion. Plus the Seminoles still have a strong power rating due to their first three remarkable games! Their 93.5% bowl odds may or may not be reasonable, depending on how the team responds after a bye week.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
 34  26. Memphis             AAc  7-1  10-2   9.9- 2.1  10.1  +3.6  100.0    0.0 
 21  27. Illinois            B10  5-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7   0.0  -6.0   99.8    0.0 
 27  28. Florida St          ACC  3-4   8-4   7.0- 5.0   0.6  +0.3   93.5   +0.1 
 41  29. Houston             B12  7-1  10-2   9.4- 2.6   1.0  +0.5  100.0    0.0 
 23  30. Missouri            SEC  6-2   8-4   7.9- 4.1   4.1  -9.0  100.0    0.0 
 32  31. Boise St           *MWC  6-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0   2.4  +0.6  100.0   +0.1 
 31  32. Tulane              AAc  6-1  10-2   9.5- 2.5   5.5  +0.7  100.0    0.0 
 30  33. James Madison      *SUNe 6-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3   3.6  +0.6  100.0    0.0 
 40  34. San Diego St        MWC  6-1  11-1   9.6- 2.4   4.3  +2.6  100.0   +0.4 

Houston doubled its odds—up to 1.0%—by beating Arizona State but they have a long way to go. Missouri's odds got shelled from 13.1% to 4.1% with their 2nd loss. The rest of the teams here all reached bowl eligibility this week! Congrats to conference favorites Boise and James Madison, who each benefitted very slightly from South Florida's loss (each up a whopping 0.6%). Tulane got a similar boost as they are another AAC contender but their odds won't budge much until they play Memphis on the 7th. San Diego State saw the biggest gain, up 2.6%, as they can still win the Mountain West at 12-1 and potentially pass the AAC champ.

The teams below in the 35-41 range all saw their Playoff dreams take a fatal hit. All except East Carolina that is, who, as an American conference teams can still parlay a 3-loss season into a Playoff bid; like seemingly every other AAC team their odds were up around 0.7%. Not much, but it's better than Iowa State and ASU from the Big Twelve, whose 3rd losses dropped them to 0.1% and <0.1% respectively. The real hit came on LSU, who was in the top 25 last week but lost 49-25 to Texas A&M and fell from 7.4% odds to 0.1% and lost their coach (like so many other teams). Another SEC team, Auburn, had weeks ago given up the ghost in terms of the Playoff and was touch and go for a bowl bid until this week, when their 33-24 win over Arkansas put them above 90%. With a gimme vs. Mercer and a home game vs. Kentucky, things are looking good there.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
 35  35. Iowa St             B12  5-3   8-4   7.7- 4.3   0.1  -1.5   99.4   -0.2 
 28  36. Arizona St          B12  5-3   7-5   7.3- 4.7  <0.1  -2.0   97.4   -1.4 
 44  40. East Carolina       AAc  4-3   9-3   7.7- 4.3   1.1  +0.7   98.4    0.0 
 24  41. LSU                 SEC  5-3   7-5   7.1- 4.9   0.1  -7.3   98.9   -0.6 
 52  45. Auburn              SEC  4-4   6-6   6.5- 5.5   0.0   0.0   90.5  +29.3 
 57  46. Kennesaw St        *CUSA 5-2  10-2   8.6- 3.4  <0.1   0.0   99.7   +3.6 
 73  49. Washington St       P12  4-4   7-5   6.7- 5.3   0.0   0.0   89.4  +31.4 
 61  52. Wake Forest         ACC  5-2   7-5   7.3- 4.7   0.0   0.0   98.3  +11.5 
 70  53. Kansas St           B12  4-4   6-6   6.0- 6.0  <0.1   0.0   79.1  +42.6 
 46  56. Toledo             *MAC  4-4   8-4   7.3- 4.7   0.0   0.0   98.4   -1.1 

Kennesaw State just became the C-USA favorite, and they still show a prayer to be the Group of Five playoff rep. Just a prayer, though. Toledo is still the MAC favorite but the MAC ain't gonna get a Playoff team. Toledo just lost to Washington State, who famously was at 29% when they were 3-2, lost two games (Ole Miss by 3, Virginia by 2) but rose to 58%. Now the 28-7 Toledo win bumped the Cougars to nearly 90% certainty—they have 4 wins and play 1-7 Oregon State twice (yes, they do) in their last 4 games. Wake Forest is even more certain after upsetting SMU; they need one win and play both Delaware and North Carolina. And Kansas State made the biggest jump maybe of the year, up 42.6% after walloping Kansas 42-17. Two weeks ago the Wildcats were at 18.6% but wins over TCU and Kansas—and upcoming games vs. Oklahoma State and Colorado—put them near 80%.

All of the teams below qualified over the weekend. Iowa did so in grand fashion, crushing Minnesota 41-3 which didn't prevent their Playoff odds from being cut down to 0.2%. Meanwhile Playoff talk for Iowa is heating up. If they beat Oregon in two weeks, we'll take it seriously. Pitt qualified and saw their Playoff odds shrink to 0.8%. Nebraska? Down to 0.1%. And TCU, 0.3%. Most of these teams play multiple tough teams and instead of opportunity, we see losses coming, as all these teams "chalk" out to 8-4 or 7-5, with Cumes suggesting 2 more losses coming.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
 43  37. Iowa                B10  6-2   7-5   8.0- 4.0   0.2  -0.2  100.0   +1.6 
 37  38. Pittsburgh          ACC  6-2   7-5   7.8- 4.2   0.8  -0.6  100.0   +2.8 
 36  42. Nebraska            B10  6-2   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.1  -0.3  100.0   +1.5 
 42  44. TCU                 B12  6-2   7-5   7.7- 4.3   0.3  -0.5  100.0   +3.8 
 54  50. Southern Miss       SUNw 6-2  10-2   8.6- 3.4   0.0   0.0  100.0   +0.6 
 59  61. Troy                SUNw 6-2   8-4   8.2- 3.8   0.0   0.0  100.0   +0.7 
 85  73. Western Kentucky    CUSA 6-2   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.0   0.0  100.0   +4.7 

Southern Miss and Troy both qualified from the Sun Belt, the former beating ULM 49-21 and the latter besting ULL 35-23. Western Kentucky was the only slight surprise, as they beat Louisiana Tech on the road 28-27 to get their 6th win (and finish the job of knocking Tech from their perch as C-USA favorites).

North Carolina State was drubbed by Pitt and is now a 50/50 bowl team, with their 2 easier games comig at the end so they will probably be 4-6 needing wins over FSU and UNC. Three Big Twelve teams below hit hard times starting with Kansas who lost big to K-State and fell 28% but is still expected to make it. Not so Colorado, especially after their 53-7 loss to Utah, but they still show a 1 in 4 shot of going 3-1 down the stretch in the unpredictable Big Twelve. Speaking of, Baylor has been up and down all year and this week a loss to Cincy put them back in the hole.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
 56  58. North Carolina St   ACC  4-4   5-7   5.5- 6.5   0.0  -0.1   47.7  -12.4 
 49  66. Kansas              B12  4-4   5-7   5.8- 6.2   0.0  -0.1   58.1  -28.0 
 62  68. Navy                AAc  7-0   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.1  -0.1  100.0    0.0 
 68  72. Colorado            B12  3-5   5-7   4.8- 7.2   0.0   0.0   25.7  -12.0 
 72  77. Baylor              B12  4-4   4-8   5.3- 6.7   0.0   0.0   39.3  -13.7 
 84  80. Temple              AAc  5-3   5-7   6.1- 5.9  <0.1   0.0   70.7  +10.3 
 93  81. Miami OH            MAC  5-3   7-5   7.1- 4.9   0.0   0.0   96.0  +24.1 
 76  87. Bowling Green       MAC  3-5   7-5   6.1- 5.9   0.0   0.0   75.1  -14.3 
 99  89. Wyoming             MWC  4-4   5-7   5.9- 6.1   0.0   0.0   64.8  +25.8 
 98  93. Missouri St*        CUSA 4-3   6-6   6.2- 5.8   0.0   0.0   70.8  +22.8 

Two more American conference teams are above, with undefeated Navy showing 0.1% Playoff Odds and 5-3 Temple even more of a long shot. Navy is bowl-eligible at least, while Temple is getting there after edging Tulsa 38-37 in overtime. Every MAC team has 3 or more losses, but Miami Ohio is on the verge of bowl eligibility after topping Western Michigan; Bowling Green went the other way, upset by Kent State which really hurts a team that needs 3 more wins. Luckily the MAC is so weak the Bobcats have a 75% of going 3-1 or better against Buffalo, Eastern Mich, Akron, and winless UMass. Wyoming picked up a solid 28-0 win over Colorado State and just needs one upset in the MWC to reach six. And Missouri State added a mythical 22.8% to their mythical bowl odds (they're not eligible) by beating New Mexico State 24-17.

Syracuse got blasted 41-16 by Georgia Tech and it left them with a 2% chance to be bowl eligible. They need three wins in four games and have UNC, Miami, and Notre Dame next. If they upset the Irish they will have the biggest jump of the year, no doubt, as Boston College follows. Arkansas State beat Georgia Southern 34-24 and gained 15% while the Eagles lost 20%, The Red Wolves are 50/50 now. Florida International dipped below the 50/50 mark after losing to Kennesaw State. 

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
 91  95. Syracuse            ACC  3-5   5-7   4.6- 7.4   0.0   0.0    2.0  -10.5 
106 101. Arkansas St         SUNw 4-4   5-7   5.6- 6.4   0.0   0.0   52.0  +14.5 
 97 103. Florida Int'l       CUSA 3-4   4-8   5.4- 6.6   0.0   0.0   45.2  -13.8 
107 104. UCLA                B10  3-5   3-9   3.5- 8.5   0.0   0.0    0.4   -0.3 
102 107. Georgia Southern    SUNe 3-5   4-8   4.4- 7.6   0.0   0.0   13.6  -20.4 
105 111. New Mexico St       CUSA 3-4   4-8   4.7- 7.3   0.0   0.0   20.5  -23.0 
 94 114. Buffalo             MAC  4-4   4-8   5.1- 6.9   0.0   0.0   32.0  -36.0 
110 122. Ball St             MAC  3-5   5-7   4.4- 7.6   0.0   0.0   10.0  -19.8

UCLA's bowl turnaround hit a big snag. From <0.1% to 0.1% to 0.4% to 0.7%, the trend was unstoppable until the 56-6 loss at Indiana dropped the Bruins back to 0.4%. With 6-2 Nebraska, 7-0 Ohio State, 6-2 Washington, and 5-2 USC, there's not much leeway. As mentioned New Mexico State lost to Missouri State, more than cutting their odds in half, down to 20.5%. Buffalo also lost half their odds but even worse, they were at 68% but an upset loss at Akron (24-16) cut them to 32%. Ball State, also in the MAC, lost 2/3 of their chances, down to 10% after falling 21-7 at Northern Illinois.

Below are teams that need to win out. How much chance do they have? Let's go team by team. Tulsa lost in overtime to Temple. Now they need to beat 3-5 FAU, 1-7 Oregon State, 3-4 Army, and 3-4 UAB. Not impossible, but at 2-6 themselves, still a long shot, 3.3% to be exact. Colorado State took a hit from losing to Wyoming 28-0 and needs four wins, including UNLV and Boise State. 0.7% might be generous. Northern Illinois' win over Ball State gave them hope: a full 2.0%, as they need to upset Toledo and Western Michigan in addition to beating UMass and Kent State.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
116 116. Tulsa               AAc  2-6   4-8   3.8- 8.2   0.0   0.0    3.3   -8.3 
108 119. Colorado St         MWC  2-6   3-9   3.3- 8.7   0.0   0.0    0.7   -6.9 
122 120. Northern Illinois   MAC  2-6   4-8   3.9- 8.1   0.0   0.0    2.0   +1.0 
121 121. Louisiana-Lafayette SUNw 2-6   3-9   3.8- 8.2   0.0   0.0    4.3   -5.7 
125 124. Middle Tennessee St CUSA 1-6   3-9   3.3- 8.7   0.0   0.0    2.3   -2.6 
115 126. Purdue              B10  2-6   2-10  2.2- 9.8   0.0   0.0   <0.1   -0.2  

Louisiana-Lafayette lost to Troy and needs to beat 2-6 South Alabama, 3-4 Texas State, 4-4 Arkansas State, and 3-5 ULM. Middle Tennessee still has 2.3% odds despite losing to Delaware and needing to go 5-0 in their last 5 games: Jacksonville State (4-3), FIU (3-4), Western Kentucky (6-2), Sam Houston (0-7), and New Mexico State (3-4) all stand in their way. And finally, Purdue. At 2-6 the Boilermakers need wins over Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, and Indiana. Over 10,000 trials there was at least one time where it happened, so there's a chance.

The teams below just lost all bowl hope, sorry to say. Eastern Michigan fell to Ohio; Nevada lost to Boise State; Boston College fought a really good fight against Louisville but even had they won that one, they needed to beat Notre Dame, SMU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%   chg 
128 128. Eastern Michigan    MAC  2-7   2-10  2.9- 9.1   0.0   0.0    0.0   -0.7 
130 130. Nevada              MWC  1-7   1-11  2.0-10.0   0.0   0.0    0.0   -0.1 
131 131. Boston College      ACC  1-7   1-11  1.5-10.5   0.0   0.0    0.0    0.0 
132 132. Georgia St          SUNe 1-7   1-11  1.5-10.5   0.0   0.0    0.0   -0.1 
133 133. Oklahoma St         B12  1-7   1-11  1.1-10.9   0.0   0.0    0.0    0.0 
136 136. UNC-Charlotte       AAc  1-7   1-11  1.1-10.9   0.0   0.0    0.0    0.0 

Georgia State's chances ended at Arkansas State. Oklahoma State's chances realistically ended at Oregon (69-3) in early September but officially ended at Texas Tech (42-0) last Saturday. And Charlotte lost 54-20 to North Texas but with Georgia on the schedule later on, it was just a formality.