South Florida still the overwhelming favorite for the G5 Playoff spot

Did South Florida's loss at Memphis open the door up for another team to nab the Group of Five Playoff spot? Is a conference other than the American likely to benefit?

The answers are sort of, and no.

Here are the likelihoods for every relevant Group of Five conference team to make the Playoff:

                               Curr  Projected      Sim Odds
 LW Rank Team             Conf Rec  Chalk  Cume   Playoff  chg  
 12  17. South Florida   *AAc  6-2  10-2   9.7-2.3  46.8 -15.3  
 19  18. North Texas      AAc  7-1  11-1  10.7-1.3  26.3  +2.5  
 34  26. Memphis          AAc  7-1  10-2   9.9-2.1  10.1  +3.6  
 32  31. Boise St        *MWC  6-2   9-3   9.0-3.0   2.4  +0.6  
 31  32. Tulane           AAc  6-1  10-2   9.5-2.5   5.5  +0.7  
 30  33. James Madison   *SUNe 6-1  11-1   9.7-2.3   3.6  +0.6   
 40  34. San Diego St     MWC  6-1  11-1   9.6-2.4   4.3  +2.6   
 44  40. East Carolina    AAc  4-3   9-3   7.7-4.3   1.1  +0.7  
 50  48. UNLV             MWC  6-1  10-2   9.1-2.9   0.2   0.0   
 62  68. Navy             AAc  7-0   8-4   7.9-4.1   0.1  -0.1  

South Florida is still by far the most likely to make the Playoff. They lost 15% due to their 34-31 loss at Memphis but are still almost at 50/50. Memphis only gained 3.6% to around 10%. North Texas is 2nd most likely at 26.3%. 

Tulane is next at 5.5%. That means four American conference teams are the most likely to get the coveted 12th Playoff spot. Add in East Carolina and Navy and the total odds for an American team to make it are 89.9%. So there is roughly a 9 in 10 chance the Playoff spot goes to an American conference team, 1 in 10 for all other conferences.

And "all other conferences" means Mountain West or Sun Belt, as there are few viable alternatives left. Boise State has a 2.4% chance, while San Diego State, also of the Mountain West, has a bigger 4.3% chance. Even though Boise wins the MWC more often, with 2 losses (and a loss to USF) winning the MWC rarely translates into a Playoff spot. For SDSU, winning out at 12-1 makes it a bit more likely, even though winning the MWC happens less often than for Boise.

The only other conference with a realistic shot is the Sun Belt, represented solely by James Madison at 3.6%. The Dukes have only lost to Louisville so far, but they have no wins over power conference teams.

Why didn't USF's odds go into the toilet? They have 2 losses now, compared to 1 for Memphis, North Texas, and Tulane, while Navy is undefeated. The answer is that South Florida is still very likely to make the AAC title game. Memphis and Tulane are likely to lose a game each, giving the Tigers two conference losses. USF holds the tiebreaker with North Texas so the Bulls make the title game and will be a big favorite whoever they play. It could be 3-loss East Carolina too—they have only one conference loss—but they will likely lose again. What about Navy? The Midshipmen are about to embark on what could be a 4-game losing streak and this is reflected by their 0.1% Playoff odds.

So regardless of what happened in Memphis, South Florida is the big favorite to win the conference title game and even with two losses they outshine the Mountain West and Sun Belt competition. 

What the loss did do is muddy the American Athletic Conference waters. South Florida no longer controls their destiny. 

Navy does control their destiny, as they play North Texas, South Florida, and Memphis! But given that Navy has played the #135 of 136 schedule strength so far, it's more likely to be a rude awakening than a revelation.

Tulane has only lost to Mississippi so far, and has wins over Northwestern and Duke. They also control their destiny, and face Memphis down the line. 

East Carolina has already lost to Tulane in conference play, so they need some help. They play Memphis later on, too.

North Texas lost big to South Florida. They play Navy this coming weekend. Of all the other teams, the Mean Green look most likely to win out, along with South Florida, which is why they have a 1 in 4 shot of making the Playoff.

South Florida lost big to Miami, while beating Florida and Boise State. Not a bad résumé but they also lost to Memphis in-conference and are not guaranteed a conference title berth if they win out, though it would be very likely as the AAC uses Committee rankings in part to determine the participants. The Bulls play Navy in a couple of weeks.

Memphis lost a shocker to UAB, otherwise they'd be in the driver's seat. But with games vs. Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy coming up, can they win all those to make the title game? And can they beat South Florida in a probable rematch? This is why their odds are only at 10% despite their big win on Saturday.