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November's action at UFC 322 on November 15 and UFC Fight Night 265 on November 22 completely shook up the Welterweight MMA rankings, leaving the weight class with a new #1, three newcomers in the top five and four in the top ten. Most significantly, Islam Machachev successfully jumped from #1 at Lightweight to tops at Welterweight, dominating Jack Della Maddalena for five rounds and knocking the former champ to #3. Not that the #2 spot was safe, as Belal Muhammad dropped his 2nd straight fight, falling to Ian Garry who took over the top-challenger spot, jumping from #11. Former #3 Sean Brady also lost, getting knocked out in the first round by unbeaten Michael Morales who jumped from #13 to #4. Carlos Prates joined the top 10 at #8 after handing ex-champ Leon Edwards his third straight loss via a 2nd round KO.  Welterweight - 170 lb. limit Nov Rank Dec Rank Fighter WC Rating Rated Record Org November results; •December schedule -- 1  Islam Mak...

 Just saying .

Three Big Ten teams make up a whopping 84% of the odds to win the national title, thanks to having the three top teams in our Strength Power Rating and getting the two top seeds in the Playoff. Indiana is almost 50/50 to win the title at 45.2%, with Ohio State over 1 in 4 odds at 26.8. Oregon , seeded 5th and therefore hosting a first-round game against the lowest-rated team, James Madison, comes in at 12.0%.  The five SEC teams, in aggregate, only add up to 6.1 total. Only Georgia gets a first-round bye, meaning four SEC teams will play in the first round. Three will host but many SEC teams are on an early collision course: Alabama plays at Oklahoma in the first round, and Mississippi will meet Georgia in the second round if they beat Tulane. CFPC Team Rec Odds 1. Indiana 13-0 45.2 2. Ohio State 12-1 26.8 3. Georgia 12-1 3.1 4. Texas Tech 12-1 7.7 5. O...

The ACC's worst nightmare came true which almost certainly means James Madison will get a Playoff berth along with Tulane , while the ACC will be shut out—unless Miami sneaks in ahead of Alabama (and maybe Notre Dame , too).  In fact, Duke's win makes that scenario more likely that the Committee will want to give the ACC some representation, while the SEC already has four teams in the mix. Alabama's bigger-than-projected loss opened the door for the Hurricanes, who might even jump to #9 ahead of the Irish. That's less likely than the Canes finishing #11 though. Previously Alabama was projected to lose and hang around at #10, down just one spot, with around a 75% to stay in as SEC runner-up. But losing 28-7 cut those odds to 47%, which is still a good chance. We'll just have to wait and see what the Committee thinks, but giving the ACC a representative would mean six conferences are among the 12 teams, which is a good talking point. Projected Final Committee To...

"Notre Dame went on the road, had a strong win at Stanford," Yurachek said. "But Alabama went on the road, in a rivalry game, and looked really good, especially in the first half." That's the explanation the head of the College Football Playoff Committee gave for moving Alabama to #9, ahead of Notre Dame last Tuesday. A move that probably insures—or at least heavily hints—that if BYU wins and Alabama loses, it will be Notre Dame, not the Tide, who exit the Playoff picture. The explanation is troubling not just for the fact that Alabama needed only to play well in the first half to get the Committee's attention, but moreso for the fact that the Committee seems to be doing what the AP Poll has always been criticized for doing: Taking last week's rankings and adjusting them marginally based on the team's latest game. When the Committee first formed in 2014 it didn't do that, at least not to the extent it does today. It didn't follow the AP pol...

The penultimate Committee Rankings gave us a big hint: Alabama will still be in the Playoff if they lose. That came courtesy of moving Alabama up a notch for beating 5-7 Auburn and "playing really well in the first half" (I'm not kidding, that was their reasoning). This comes at the expense of Notre Dame of course, as the Irish fall to #10. Their odds dropped about 10%. Before, the Irish had to fear wins by both Alabama and BYU ; now, just BYU winning is probably enough to push them out. Miami really got hurt, down 20% as they didn't move up after beating Pitt 38-7 (even better than Notre Dame's 22 point win, btw). With Alabama presumably staying in by default, the Canes will finish #11 with either Notre Dame or Alabama at #10. Their hopes rely on people comparison head-to-head vs. the Irish or comparing games vs. FSU with Alabama. Our algorithm has liked Miami all year and still gives them a generous 22.7% to get the bid. It doesn't really like Oklahoma ...

Note: Updated for Committee rankings here One week to go, and as usual we don't know what the Committee will do. We do know who will be #1: either Ohio State or Indiana . But ironically that's by far the least interesting game next Saturday because it won't affect at all who gets in or who gets a top-4 bye! There's a tiny chance that the loser of that game drops to #5 but don't bet on it. They still show as #1 and #2 below because that's the averaged value of finishing #1, 2, 3, or 4 in various scenarios. Texas Tech is heavily favored to beat BYU again and finish in the top 4 (#3 or #4), but if BYU wins that convolutes things in a major way, which I'll get to. Another Top Four member is Georgia : if they win they will finish #2, and if they don't, well that's another twist I'll cover.  The boring section of the rankings is from #5 to #7 where the teams are certain to get in, don't play, and probably won't move from Tuesday's ranking...