Committee Gives Big Hint: Alabama will be in; Notre Dame should worry; Miami S.O.L.

The penultimate Committee Rankings gave us a big hint: Alabama will still be in the Playoff if they lose. That came courtesy of moving Alabama up a notch for beating 5-7 Auburn and "playing really well in the first half" (I'm not kidding, that was their reasoning). This comes at the expense of Notre Dame of course, as the Irish fall to #10. Their odds dropped about 10%. Before, the Irish had to fear wins by both Alabama and BYU; now, just BYU winning is probably enough to push them out. Miami really got hurt, down 20% as they didn't move up after beating Pitt 38-7 (even better than Notre Dame's 22 point win, btw). With Alabama presumably staying in by default, the Canes will finish #11 with either Notre Dame or Alabama at #10. Their hopes rely on people comparison head-to-head vs. the Irish or comparing games vs. FSU with Alabama. Our algorithm has liked Miami all year and still gives them a generous 22.7% to get the bid. It doesn't really like Oklahoma so the Sooners are shy of certainty. It also decided that Alabama has a 50/50 chance to get a bye if they beat Georgia, whose own Bye odds suffer; they are no longer staying in the top four with a loss to the Tide.

Ave.                       CFPC                   Simulation Odds
CFPC Team               Curr Chalk Conf Rec  Playoff  chg  T4Bye   chg  Champ%
  1. Indiana              2    1  *B10  12-0  100.0   0.0  100.0   0.0   42.3 
  2. Ohio State           1    3   B10  12-0  100.0   0.0  100.0   0.0   19.8 
  3. Texas Tech           4    4  *B12  11-1  100.0   0.0   80.5   0.0   10.9 
  4. Georgia              3    2  *SEC  11-1  100.0   0.0   60.2  -9.7    1.6 
  5. Oregon               5    5   B10  11-1  100.0   0.0   29.0  -8.4   14.5 
  6. Mississippi          6    6   SEC  11-1  100.0   0.0    7.6  -4.6    1.0 
  7. Texas A&M            7    7   SEC  11-1  100.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.8 
  8. Alabama              9   10   SEC  10-2   86.3 +29.2   22.8 +22.7    2.3 
  9. Oklahoma             8    8   SEC  10-2   92.5  +0.6    0.0   0.0    0.4 
 10. Notre Dame          10    9   Ind  10-2   78.7  -9.8    0.0   0.0    6.0 
 11. Miami FL            12   11   ACC  10-2   22.7 -19.6    0.0   0.0    0.4 
 12. Brigham Young       11   12   B12  11-1   19.8  -0.5    0.0   0.0    0.1 
 13. Texas               13   13   SEC   9-3    0.0  -0.2    0.0   0.0    0.0 

The Committee chose to not downgrade Mississippi for losing coach Lane Kiffen. It also chose not to upgrade Mississippi for losing Lane Kiffen. BYU's fate is pretty set in stone: win and they're in, lose and they're out. The Committee could have moved Miami ahead of the Cougars and that situation wouldn't have changed, but by not doing so they are signalling that there will be no comparing Miami and Notre Dame at adjacent positions. And Texas landed at the expected #13 spot; there was a small chance that they would be moved higher, which gave them a 0.2% chance of making the Playoff, but that has fizzled away.

The bottom of the Top 25 has only one concern: Who will be the last two teams to make it? The scenario is mostly clear: If Virginia wins they're in, along with the American winner (North Texas or Tulane). If Virginia loses, James Madison comes into play. With the Dukes (not Duke) ranked at #25—we keep expected them to come in a bit higher—their odds dip a bit, but they still cover all the cases where Virginia loses and then a little bit. North Texas came in at #24 so if they win it might be close, but the Committee put the Mean Green there for a reason. Win and they're in. 

Ave.                       CFPC                   Simulation Odds
CFPC Team               Curr Chalk Conf Rec  Playoff  chg  T4Bye   chg  Champ%
 14. Utah                15   15   B12  10-2    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 15. Vanderbilt          14   14   SEC  10-2    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 16. Southern Cal        16   17   B10   9-3    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 17. Virginia            17   16  *ACC  10-2   54.1  +0.1    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 18. Arizona             18   19   B12   9-3    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 19. North Texas         24   18  *AAc  11-1   70.8  +1.1    0.0   0.0   <0.1 
 20. Michigan            19   20   B10   9-3    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 21. James Madison       25   21  *SUNe 11-1   51.7  -8.8    0.0   0.0   <0.1 
 22. Houston             21   22   B12   9-3    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 23. Georgia Tech        22   23   ACC   9-3    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 24. Tulane              20   25   AAc  10-2   22.0  +7.6    0.0   0.0    0.0 
 25. Iowa                23   24   B10   8-4    0.0   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0 
others:
 28. UNLV                --   --  *MWC  10-2    0.9  +0.4    0.0   0.0    0.0
 36. Kennesaw St         --   --  *CUSA  9-3    0.2   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0
 45. Boise St            --   --   MWC   8-4    0.2   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0
 57. Duke                --   --   ACC   7-5    0.2   0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0

So what happens if Duke wins, and James Madison loses? Luckily that's only about a 1.5% chance (Duke is almost a 50/50 winner but the Dukes are about a 97% favorite over Troy at home). That 1.5% mainly goes to UNLV in the case that they win the Mountain West, but if they lose it's split between Boise State and Kennesaw State of the C-USA (assuming they win). Meanwhile Duke has completely unknown odds because we're way below the Top 25 waterline at this point.