Week 5: How the Projected Final Top 25 fared

We've reached the point where "idle" is playing a lot of games. Six of our projected Final Top 25 play vs. idle this week, and we'll be seeing that the rest of the year. Oh well. That's the trade-off for playing real opponents, as almost everyone is playing an intra-conference game. Two idle teams (Utah and Ole Miss) are at #12 and #13, knocking on the door of the Playoff, while #10 Oregon is trying to hold their projected spot.

There are only two intra-Top 25 games though: #6 Alabama at #24 Mississippi State, and #9 Ohio State vs. #23 Iowa. Both the underdogs are playing at home which makes it interesting. Really good opportunity for both, as they are expected to lose and remain borderline-top-25; a win changes that instantly (just ask Florida).

Most of the other conference games are pretty one-sided on paper. Exceptions are #11 Florida at Missouri, #15 BYU at TCU, #17 Penn State at Northwestern, and especially #19 Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech where the Hokies are expected to win a close game. One game I'm really interested in is #16 Houston vs. UCF; if you look at our All-Division power rating, the Knights have played very high-level, consistent football, even during a close loss at Pitt. To our FBS-only power rating they look pedestrian. Are they #17, a diamond in the rough? Or #40? It's an early must-win for both teams if either is to have a shot at winning the Big Twelve. Our pre-season-weighted average gives Houston the nod comfortably at home—as does Vegas—but keep an eye on this one.

The G6 race is in full swing, too. #14 James Madison has to win big hosting Marshall to pass the eye test and stay in stride with our power ratings. #18 Boise State has roughly the same prediction (~20 point win) vs. Utah State, and #21 North Dakota State faces Wyoming and needs a 4-TD win to hold steady with our expectations. Whoever doesn't win big (or doesn't win!) is due to slide.

                           Record  Playoff 
 Rnk Team             Conf Now Proj  Odds  This weekend (Vegas/SR Odds) RESULTS
 1. Notre Dame        Ind  4-0 12-0  82.4 @N Carolina (+21/+37)
 2. Georgia          *SEC  4-0 12-0  71.5  Vanderbilt (+24.5/+23)
 3. Texas             SEC  4-0 12-0  70.7  idle
 4. Indiana           B10  4-0 12-0  55.7 @Rutgers (+23.5/+33)
 5. Miami FL         *ACC  4-0 11-1  54.0 @Clemson (+16.5/+15)
 6. Alabama           SEC  4-0 10-2  52.2 @ #24 Miss St (+6/+11)
 7. Texas Tech       *B12  4-0 12-0  50.5 @Colorado (+12.5/+17)
 8. LSU               SEC  3-1 10-2  50.4  McNeese (+53.5/+58)
 9. Ohio State       *B10  3-1 10-2  47.9 @ #23 Iowa (+14.5/+19)
10. Oregon            B10  3-1 10-2  42.3  idle
11. Florida           SEC  4-0  9-3  35.9 @Missouri (+5.5/+1)
12. Utah              B12  4-0 12-0  36.2  idle
13. Mississippi       SEC  3-1  8-4  31.6  idle
14. James Madison    *SUNe 4-0 12-0  31.6  Marshall (+18.5/+19)
15. Brigham Young     B12  3-0 10-2  29.2 @TCU (+6.5/+3)
16. Houston           B12  3-1 10-2  24.4  UCF (+12.5/+13)
17. Penn State        B10  3-1 11-1  18.3 @Northwestern (+2.5/+13)
18. Boise St         *P12  3-1 11-1  25.8  Utah St (+20.5/+19)
19. Pittsburgh        ACC  4-0  9-3  16.5 @VA Tech (-3/-1)
20. UCLA              B10  4-0  9-3  19.1  idle
21. North Dakota St  *MWC  4-0 12-0  16.6  Wyoming (+18.5/+27)
22. Tennessee         SEC  3-1  8-4  22.8  Auburn (+7/+13)
23. Iowa              B10  4-0  8-4  16.9  #9 Ohio State (-14.5/-19)
24. Mississippi St    SEC  4-0  7-5  16.3  #6 Alabama (-6/-11)
25. Duke              ACC  4-0 10-2  14.0  idle

Friday's games:  Pitt vs. West Virginia and Penn State-Northwestern are on Friday, everything else is on Saturday. Stop back for the updates.