Bubble Update March 12 2026: Updates throughout day

Today's bubble games with results updated. So far the bubble-team bloodbath continues.

Miami Ohio lost to UMass, their first loss and it will keep them out of the seedings in the Dance Chance for sure. The Selection Committee will almost certainly reserve a play-in spot for a 31-1 team though. This kind of thing is a nightmare for a general algorithm.

                                      3/11   Conf    Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Odds  3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 43. California           ACC  21-11  52.4    0.0   11p  11p   50%  50%  50%
 44. Stanford             ACC  20-12  52.1    0.0   11p  11p   50%  50%  50%
 45. VCU                  A10  24-7   49.3   25.5   11p        15%  40%  11p
 46. New Mexico vs SJSU   MWC  22-9   47.7   20.6              40%  40%  45%
 47. Miami OH 83 UMass 87 MAC  31-1   46.2   24.5              ---  15%  30%
 48. SDSU 71 Colo St. 62  MWC  21-10  44.5   15.6        11p   35%  40%  45%
 49. Cincinnati           B12  18-15  39.1    0.0              35%  35%  35%
 50. Texas                SEC  18-14  35.8    0.0        11p   30%  30%  30%

Auburn just lost to Tennessee and should NOT be in the tournament at 17-16, but apparently they're already in because Joe Lunardi says so. We'll see, I hope the Committee doesn't do it. I'd rather see a 31-win team with a cupcake schedule make the Dance than a 17-16 team with a killer schedule.

San Diego State took a step closer to being in the tournament. Our numbers say it keeps them just under the waterline but a bit closer. That didn't account for Miami losing, so it's possible the Aztecs might be in the seeding tomorrow. Or we might have two MWC teams as First and Second team out, and in line to play each other next! New Mexico has a late game yet.

                                      3/11   Conf    Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Odds  3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 51. S. Hall 72 Creigh 61  BE  21-11  35.6    2.7             ---  20%  11 
 52. Auburn 62 Tenn. 72   SEC  17-16  31.3    1.2             ---   5%  10%
 53. Virginia Tech        ACC  19-13  30.9    0.0             15%  15%  15%
 54. South Florida        Amer 23-8   28.8   42.6    11       ---   5%  11 
 55. West Virginia        B12  18-14  24.6    0.0             10%  10%  10%
 56. Indiana              B10  18-14  23.5    0.0              5%   5%   5%
 57. OK 83 Texas A&M 63   SEC  19-14  22.3    0.3             ---  ---  15%

Finally some good news for a bubble team! Seton Hall beat Creighton and while that hardly even puts them in good range right now, if they beat St. John's they will make our seeding. No one's paying much attention to the Pirates right now but they're a win away from everyone taking note.

Oklahoma continues the Bubble comeback. Or rather, it's more of a normal day where some bubble teams win, some lose. The Sooners upset Texas A&M. It doesn't really move the needle yet, nor would beating Arkansas according to this morning's numbers but again, when things are re-run tomorrow it might look better for the Sooners. At some point they have to be near the waterline.

Unfortunately we didn't get to see what happened to Florida State with a win over Duke. The Seminoles led much of the game but fell just short, 80-79.