BUBBLE BLOODBATH!!: Results of Wednesday March 11, 2026.

Bubble results for Wednesday March 11, 2026. Teams greyed out didn't play.

It was a Bubble Bloodbath on Wednesday as every single true bubble team lost, several by upset too. An absolute nightmare for the Bubble, with around 4 upset losses among the 8 bubble losses depending on what you call an upset. We'll call it by conference tournament seed.

California was a precarious play-in team going in in the Dance Chance, and just below the waterline by consensus but an upset loss to Florida State makes the Bears an underdog. The Dance Chance will have them in the First Four Out tomorrow (most likely) while most will completely count them out.

Texas had a bit more support in the consensus than our Last Team In designation but the Longhorns were beat in the first round of the SEC tournament by 13-19 Ole Miss.

Cincinnati's hopes took an unfortunate hit with a 1-point overtime loss to UCF. Given that hypothetically beating UCF wouldn't have moved the needle that much we expect the Bearcats to drop quite a ways below the waterline in tomorrow's Dance Chance.

                                      3/10   Conf  3/10  Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Odds  Seed  +0w  +1w  +2w

 39. SMU 58-62 L'ville    ACC  20-13  63.3    0.3   10   10   10    7 
 40. NC State 98-88 Pitt  ACC  20-12  61.8    0.8   10   11   11    8 
 41. Missouri             SEC  20-11  61.2    0.2   11   10   10   10 
 42. Santa Clara          WCC  26-8   55.6    0.0   11p  50%  50%  50%
 43. Cal 89 FSU 95        ACC  21-11  54.7    0.1   11p  50%  11p  11 
 44. Stanford             ACC  20-12  48.8    0.0   11p  50%  50%  50%
 45. Texas 66 Miss. 76    SEC  18-14  48.2    1.3   11p  35%  35%  45%
 46. VCU                  A10  24-7   44.5   26.7         5%  35%  35%
 47. Cincy 65 UCF 66 OT   B12  18-15  45.0    0.3        20%  30%  11p

Indiana took a big hit, too, falling to 15-18 Northwestern 74-61 and probably getting cut from consideration. By our estimation they needed to beat Purdue to get in, so losing to the Wildcats has an air of finality to it.

West Virginia wasn't expected to beat BYU and they didn't, losing by 20; we see them dropping to 10% odds with the loss and the 20-point margin might make that a bit generous.

Oklahoma State continued the losing streak of bubble teams. The Cowboys were already  pretty low on the Bubble totem pole, and this loss makes their odds really, really low. Too low for the rough Conference Tourney model to measure. 

And the night ends with maybe the worst loss of all Boise State falling to 9-23 San Jose State. If there was any chance for the Broncos to get in—and I think they weren't that far behind the usual Mountain West suspects—that chance is gone now.

                                      3/10   Conf  3/10  Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Odds  Seed  +0w  +1w  +2w

 48. New Mexico           MWC  22-9   41.7   18.3        40%  40%  40%
 49. Miami OH             MAC  31-0   38.6   28.0        ---  25%  35%
 50. Indiana 61 NWest 74  B10  18-14  38.1    0.2        ---  15%  11p
 51. San Diego St.        MWC  20-10  37.7   16.3   11p  30%  35%  40%
 52. West VA 48 BYU 68    B12  18-14  33.9   <0.1        10%  15%  11p
 53. Boise St 74 SJSU 84  MWC  20-12  31.4   13.4        ---  ---  5% 
 54. Seton Hall           BE   20-11  26.0    3.6        ---  10%  10 
 55. South Florida        Amer 23-8   23.1   39.8   11   ---  ---  11 
 56. Virginia Tech        ACC  19-13  23.9    0.0        10%  10%  10%
 57. OK St 88 TCU 95      B12  19-14  20.9   <0.1        ---  15%  40%

The two teams at the top were more or less above the bubble already, but nothing is ever certain. SMU lost to Louisville but we show them remaining a 10-seed nonetheless. Tomorrow's official Dance Chance will tell the whole story, with other results fully taken into account. Given the other results, SMU is looking pretty good despite the loss.

NC State was relatively safe even before beating Pitt, and they are in about the same situation after, they just avoided some potential worrying. Beating Virginia tomorrow would erase all doubt caused by their previous 4-game slide. But again, a lot of the teams that could have passed them just lost.

The big winners of the night were Santa Clara, Stanford, VCU, New Mexico, Miami Ohio, and San Diego State. By not playing and seeing the teams around them lose, they have a chance to move up without doing a thing. In particular Santa Clara was in danger of being leapt by some of these teams; now their 11-seed looks a lot more solid. Seton Hall has to be happy with its chances now, and Virginia Tech almost has new life! (Almost)