Dance Chance 2026 season week 12: Arizona, Duke, Michigan overwhelming 1-seed favorites

Just started up the Dance Chance again a few weeks ago, hope to do a rundown of the latest version more regularly. This week: Three teams are near-total-locks for a bid and big favories for a 1-seed. Auburn is way up and Baylor is way down. And Miami of Ohio is the year's biggest question mark.

No one will be surprised that Arizona, Duke, and Michigan are near-locks for a bid and all around 75%+ for a 1-seed. Michigan's huge lead in Strength projects them to win out going forward game-by-game, while Arizona's amazing Success score keeps them on top. The Wildcats are coming off two 20+point wins as is Duke.  Right now they're all very likely 1-seeds the question being who will be the overall 1-seed? Remember Duke plays Michigan in Washington DC in February. The Wolverines play Nebraska and Michigan State this week, that will be another big decider. And tonight Duke plays Louisville while Arizona travels to BYU.

Gonzaga is a distant 4th 1-seed, and in fact their 1-seed odds are lower than Iowa State's (but their softer schedule makes them more likely to stay there). UConn is 19-1 but we project a few losses to come with less upside on their Big East schedule.  

                               Record        At-lg       Conf  Total               Seed
Rank Team            Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds 1-seed Chg% Proj Prv
  1. Arizona         B12  20-0  29-2  31-0  >99.9  +0.1  16.4  >99.9  80.5 +11.8  1    1 
  2. Duke            ACC  18-1  28-3  29-2  >99.9  +0.1  15.7  >99.9  74.7 +13.8  1    1 
  3. Michigan        B10  18-1  28-3  30-1  >99.9   0.0  15.7  >99.9  84.0  -2.1  1    1 
  4. Gonzaga         WCC  21-1  29-2  30-1   99.3  -0.1  22.5   99.5  17.9  -4.2  1    1 
  5. Iowa St.        B12  18-2  26-5  27-4   98.6  +0.9  13.8   98.8  32.9  +1.3  2    2 
  6. Illinois        B10  17-3  25-6  25-6   97.9  +3.3  13.5   98.2  14.2  +3.4  2    3 
  7. Connecticut     BE   19-1  28-3  29-2   97.1  +1.1  22.0   97.8  11.7  -2.7  2    2 
  8. Nebraska        B10  20-0  28-3  29-2   96.8  +3.8   8.7   97.0  13.2  +4.0  2    3 
  9. Houston         B12  17-2  25-6  25-6   96.3  +0.1  11.2   96.7  15.3  -6.8  3    2 
 10. Purdue          B10  17-3  25-6  26-5   95.9  -1.7  10.8   96.4   9.8 -15.6  3    2 
 11. Michigan St.    B10  18-2  25-6  26-5   95.2  +5.2  10.7   95.7  10.7  +4.8  3    4 
 12. Texas Tech      B12  16-4  23-8  24-7   94.5  +5.5  11.7   95.2   7.1  +3.1  3    4 

Illinois and Nebraska both move up to 2-seeds; the Illini beat Purdue at Purdue (the Boilers fall to a 3-seed and their 1-seed odds fall 15% after 2 losses last week) while Nebraska is now 20-0. The Cornhuskers have to lose at some point (right?), but for now they're climbing toward a 1-seed on rank at a time. The two teams play on Sunday, days after Nebraska takes on Michigan! Michigan State, the quietest 18-2 team in the country, plays Michigan Friday. Houston drops to the top 3-seed after losing to new 3-seed Texas Tech.

Other teams of interest: Most of the teams below added double digits to their at-large odds—which makes sense as the teams in the "selection zone" should see their odds increasing toward 100%. Arkansas beat 4-seed Vanderbilt last week—Vandy's 3rd loss in a row—to add 11% and move to a 5-seed. North Carolina got a great road win over 4-seed Virginia and jumped 2 seeds to a 6-seed with a 16% boost. Texas A&M garnered two SEC wins by 20+ points each, which is responsible for their 11% jump. NC State got two ACC road wins which pushed them up 10% and into an 8-seed. And the biggest jump of the week was Auburn's; the Tigers are up 23% from a play-in team to a 9-seed after beat 5-seed Florida on the road. 

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf  Total          Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds 1-seed Proj Prv
 17. Arkansas             SEC  15-5  22-9  24-7   88.8 +11.1  11.2   90.0   0.9   5    6 
 22. North Carolina       ACC  16-4  22-9  22-9   80.4 +16.2   8.2   82.0   0.3   6    8 
 27. Texas A&M            SEC  16-4  22-9  22-9   69.2 +11.3   6.3   71.2         7    9 
 31. N.C. State           ACC  14-6  21-10 21-10  65.3 +10.3  10.5   69.0         8    9 
 33. Auburn               SEC  13-7  19-12 19-12  60.7 +22.9   6.3   63.2  <0.1   9   11p
 34. Utah St.             MWC  16-3  25-6  27-4   58.0 -12.2  20.9   66.7         9    7 
 41. UCLA                 B10  14-6  19-12 19-12  44.1 +17.5   3.8   46.2        11      
 46. California           ACC  15-5  21-10 21-10  35.8 +10.5   2.9   37.7                
 66. Boise St.            MWC  12-8  19-12 20-11  20.6 +10.2  11.4   29.7                
 68. Baylor               B12  11-8  16-15 16-15  17.3 -20.6   4.3   20.8             11p

Utah State was one of the few unlucky teams that dropped by double digits. The Aggies lost their 2nd straight vs. UNLV at home, 86-76, before bouncing back over Colorado. They still fell to a 9-seed, down 2 rungs. But MWC-mates Boise State almost doubled their odds after two dominant wins. The Broncos are still only at 21%, well below the waterline. The Mountain West looks to have 2 or 3 teams this year, with Boise 4th in line. UCLA jumped in as an 11-seed, up 17.5% after beating Purdue 69-67, and Cal is up 10% after beating Stanford on the road (UNC's win over Virginia helped, as they Bears beat the Tar Heels 2 weeks ago). The worse fall of the week goes to Baylor, at 38% last week but down 20.6% after home losses to Texas Tech and TCU put them at 11-8 and a projected 16-15. 

The Bubble: We'll start at teams whose At-large odds are under 50%, a good limit to use at this stage in the season. New Mexico and San Diego State are both above the line right now but not solid choices yet in the MWC. Both dipped slightly last week, New Mexico from a few tepid home wins and the Aztecs because they lost to Grand Canyon; surprisingly those results were deemed roughly equal once SDSU rebounded with a win at UNLV. Texas also lost (to 8-Kentucky) but their win over 7-seed Georgia outweighed it. Three Big Ten teams are on the right side of the bubble, for now: we covered UCLA above, while Indiana and Ohio State both went 1-1, with the loss to Michigan in both cases. The Big Ten is expected to get 8 teams in, and those are #8, #9, and #10. TCU joined as Last Team In with 2 wins last week; they face Houston on Wednesday.

                                   Record        At-lg        Conf  Total          Seed
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj Chalk  %Odds   Chg% Champ %Odds 1-seed Proj Prv
 39. New Mexico           MWC  16-4  24-7  26-5   49.6  -1.0  15.8   57.6        10   10 
 40. Texas                SEC  12-8  18-13 18-13  46.3  +7.8   6.6   49.8        10   11p
 41. UCLA                 B10  14-6  19-12 19-12  44.1 +17.5   3.8   46.2        11      
 42. Indiana              B10  13-7  19-12 19-12  43.2  +3.0   5.8   46.5        11p  11 
 43. Ohio St.             B10  13-6  19-12 19-12  41.4  -0.6   4.7   44.2        11p  10 
 44. San Diego St.        MWC  14-5  21-9  21-9   38.4  -3.5  13.4   46.6        11p  10 
 45. TCU                  B12  13-7  19-12 19-12  37.5  +2.2   4.9   40.5        11p     
 46. California           ACC  15-5  21-10 21-10  35.8 +10.5   2.9   37.7                
 47. Tulsa                Amer 17-3  26-5  27-4   35.7  -1.6  17.5   47.0        11   11 
 48. Butler               BE   13-7  19-12 21-10  34.8  +0.3  11.1   42.1                
 49. Virginia Tech        ACC  15-6  19-12 19-12  32.4  +2.0   2.9   34.4                
 50. Akron                MAC  16-4  26-5  27-4   32.3  +8.1  21.1   46.6        12   12 
 51. Seton Hall           BE   14-6  20-11 20-11  30.7  -8.9   8.7   36.7             11p
 52. USC                  B10  15-5  20-11 19-12  30.2  +1.0   4.3   33.2                
 53. LSU                  SEC  13-7  18-13 17-14  29.0  -2.7   3.7   31.6                
 54. Miami OH             MAC  20-0  28-3  31-0   28.6  +2.4  15.5   39.7                

As noted Cal nearly jumped into the mix but they're First Team Out at the moment, with Virginia Tech (who faces Duke this Saturday) also in the First Four Out. The ACC should have six or seven teams in, and those two are #9 and #10 right now in conference pecking order, however. Butler is also in the First Four Out, and really, so is fellow Big East mate Seton Hall. The Bulldogs won their last two while the Pirates lost theirs, as well as their Play-in spot. The Big East projects to about 4 teams in, and Butler is team #4 which means both teams here may have a better shot than their current odds suggest. 

USC lost at home to Northwestern but then beat Wisconsin on the road to keep them in the hunt, while LSU barely fell despite two losses; they were both road losses, to 5-seeds Florida and Arkansas, the latter by just 4 points. Tulsa is reasonably situated for a bid, but they're the favorite in the American so hopefully they won't need one. Same for Akron in the MAC, though their primary competition is Miami of Ohio who is 20-0 now! The Redhawks already beat the Zips this year and are favored to win out but we see about 3 losses, which leaves them out of the field if they don't win the conference title game.

Conference expectations: Here are the conferences expected to get multiple bids:

Conference   Expected  Current
SEC            8.4       10
Big Ten        8.2       10
Big 12         7.7        8
ACC            7.6        8
Big East       3.8        3
Mountain West  2.7        3
West Coast     2.5        2
Atlantic 10    2.1        1
American       1.5        1
MAC            1.5        1

Basically the top four conferences: SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC, should all have around 8 teams in the Dance. After that it's a huge drop-off, with the Big East getting 4, the Mountain West and maybe the WCC geting 3, the Atlantic 10 with two, and the American and MAC on the borderline of getting a 2nd team. Every other conference is a likely 1-bid.