Prediction for initial Playoff Committee Rankings for 2025

 It's hours away, so why not predict it? Using a haphazard formula that was sort of tuned on previous years using the AP poll, some power ratings, and a hefty dose of Schedule Strength, here's my take. Score is left unexplained, it's just there to show how close the teams were in the formula.

Ohio State is a pretty consensus #1, as they are #1 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. The Committee mostly mimics those but they like to show a bit of independence. Should Ohio State really be ahead of Indiana? If not for Texas beating Vanderbilt, I think the Hoosiers might have taken the top spot; that made Texas legit and gave Ohio State a real win. And if it were several weeks ago, Texas A&M would have been strongly considered for #1, but some of their big wins at the time (Auburn) haven't aged well. And finally Alabama. If Florida State had won 2 or 3 of the very close games they lost, the Tide might be #1 right now. As it is, losing to a 4-4 team offsets having wins over 4 other top 25 teams.

Rnk  Team                  Rec   Score  vs.AP
  1. Ohio State            8-0    33.1    = 
  2. Indiana               9-0    37.1    = 
  3. Texas A&M             8-0    39.7    = 
  4. Alabama               7-1    40.3    = 
  5. Georgia               7-1    61.4    = 
  6. Mississippi           8-1    83.3   up1
  7. Brigham Young         8-0    85.9   up1
  8. Texas Tech            8-1    96.0   up1
  9. Oregon                7-1   101.6   dn3
 10. Notre Dame            6-2   104.4    = 
 11. Texas                 7-2   117.1   up3
 12. Oklahoma              7-2   117.6   up1
 13. Virginia              8-1   143.4   dn1
 14. Louisville            7-1   149.8    = 
 15. Miami FL              6-2   150.8   up3
 16. Vanderbilt            7-2   155.4   dn1
 17. Utah                  7-2   155.8    = 
 18. Southern Cal          6-2   179.3   up2
 19. Michigan              7-2   190.0   up2
 20. Georgia Tech          8-1   192.6   dn4
 21. Missouri              6-2   209.4   dn2
 22. Washington            6-2   221.0   up2
 23. Tennessee             6-3   222.5    = 
 24. Cincinnati            7-2   248.0   up1
 25. Memphis               8-1   256.3   dn3

After the top four there is a huge dropoff. Georgia (close loss to Alabama) and Mississippi (close loss to Georgia) follow naturally, with BYU vying strongly for the #6 spot. Texas Tech shares BYU's best win—Utah—and beat the Utes much more convincingly, and are pretty even in SOS. But there's that loss to ASU to separate the Big Twelve leaders.

Oregon down at #9? The Committee's job is to rank the teams for who they've played and beaten, not rank them by who they think they will beat. If they follow that, Oregon is dicey for the top ten. Their best win is 5-3 Northwestern. A few blowouts (over teams like 1-8 Oklahoma State), an overtime win at 4-5 Penn State, and a fairly close loss at home to Indiana, that's their résumé. 

Notre Dame probably leads the 2-loss teams, as they are a few hairs away from being undefeated and have played a strong schedule so far and have a win over USC. Texas redeemed themselves completely by beating Vanderbilt; before that, they were flailing against every opponent, but now they ought to be ranked above Oklahoma, whom they dominated 23-6.

The ACC is somewhat of a mess. No one thinks Virginia is all that great, but like Texas they just won't die and they should be ranked ahead of Louisville who should be ranked ahead of Miami. As for the Canes, the same rule applies to them as applies to Oregon: rank them based on who they played and beat and lost to, not how they're stumbling late "as usual." The Canes have a win over Notre Dame, and Florida, FSU, and South Florida are still good wins. If they hadn't lost to SMU they'd be ahead of Notre Dame in the top ten.

Vanderbilt and Utah could be in either order, though Vandy does have a win over #21 Missouri that is probably the tiebreker. Then there's a big gap until USC, who beat Michigan, who beat #22 Washington. In the lower reaches there is more randomness, and it's hard to say who the Committee adds here but in my formula, only AP Top 25 teams show up. Georgia Tech is another wild card; where does a 1-loss ACC team with a weak schedule rank? Probably several slots lower than their AP rank.

Tennessee is the only 3-loss team here.; the Vols have the #15 SOS and losses to all top 25 teams. Cincinnati surprisingly gets a boost from their #25 AP ranking, but they're in the top 50 in SOS and by the lower reaches of the top 25 that's hard to find among teams with good records. The real wild card here is Memphis. The Tigers are #22 in the AP poll and have a bad loss to UAB. They also have a great win over USF. North Texas might show up here, but they lost to USF. USF might show up here but they have two losses, though one of them was to Miami. I really think that the Committee will only put one Group of Five team here, and it will be from the American. It would make sense to put South Florida here I think, but the polls both like Memphis and the Tigers did beat them.

Both North Texas and South Florida rank from #26 to #30 in this formula, with James Madison, TCU, and Pittsburgh also included. I doubt James Madison gets in with their SOS of #119. And I should note, if you use the Coaches Poll instead of the AP, Iowa gets in ahead of Washington.