Bowl odds: Kentucky back in the hunt; Clemson back on track

Outside the projected top 25, there are still quite a few Committee-ranked teams as well as teams that have a decent shot at making the Playoff—thanks to the messy ACC. Washington was ranked before their loss to Wisconsin; they also fell out of our top 25 projection. Memphis wasn't ranked but the Committee named them the top G5 team, awkwardly putting them in the current Committee Bracket before their loss to Tulane. Tennessee is #23 by the Committee (as of Tuesday) but only stays in the top 25 if they win their last three games; they're favored in all three but probably lose one. Iowa is #21 but plays at USC this weekend. Cincinnati is #25 but has three tough games left including BYU. And Pittsburgh is #22 and that brings us to the ACC situation...

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team          CFPC  Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%  chg 
 29  27. Tennessee      23   SEC  6-3   9-3   8.0- 4.0   0.0  -0.1  100.0   0.0
 26  28. Florida St          ACC  4-5   7-5   6.3- 5.7   0.0   0.0   86.7 -10.3
 48  29. Wake Forest         ACC  6-3   8-4   8.1- 3.9   0.0   0.0  100.0  +1.2
 35  30. SMU                 ACC  7-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7   5.2  +2.2  100.0   0.0
 36  31. Iowa           21   B10  6-3   8-4   7.8- 4.2   0.0  -0.1  100.0   0.0
 38  33. Cincinnati     25   B12  7-2   8-4   8.3- 3.7  <0.1   0.0  100.0   0.0
 37  34. Pittsburgh     22   ACC  7-2   8-4   8.1- 3.9  10.6  +3.8  100.0   0.0
 25  35. Washington          B10  6-3   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.0  -0.5  100.0   0.0 
 27  38. Memphis             AAc  8-2   9-3   9.2- 2.8   0.5  -9.4  100.0   0.0
 34  41. Duke                ACC  5-4   8-4   7.1- 4.9   2.6  -0.5   96.7  -2.3

Florida State is still, on average, one of the best teams in the ACC but is just trying to become bowl-eligible. Which FSU will show up vs. Virginia Tech, NC State, and Florida? With the latter two on the road where they've played terribly (including a 24-10 loss to Clemson), 87% is very generous. Wake Forest is also not in the ACC title hunt with 3 losses already, but they upset Virginia to become bowl-eligible. That win also caused a lot of the current chaos, with SMU and Duke now having a real shot at winning the ACC but missing the Playoff. Especially Duke, since they just lost to UConn—and have a loss to AAC contender Tulane. Pittsburgh has the same "problem": win the ACC, and their Playoff hopes might depend on whether they defeated Notre Dame this weekend or not. However, since the Panthers have to also beat Georgia Tech and Miami as well as win the conference title game, 10-3 would probably be good enough.

All of this had a ripple effect on the G5, as suddenly there is a chance that two G5 conferences get a champion in the Playoff. Kennesaw State is a longshot at 0.5% but that's 5x better than last week. The Mountain West teams would have benefitted but San Diego State was upset 38-6 at Hawaii, leaving the Aztecs at under 1% along with UNLV and Boise State, with New Mexico bringing up the rear at 0.2%. Southern Miss is undefeated in the Sun Belt and now has a 0.3% prayer, up from 0.1% last week. Not every conference is still in the running; MAC leader Ohio is not going to finish ahead of the ACC winner in any scenario. 

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%  chg 
 45  43. Kennesaw St        *CUSA 7-2  10-2   9.1- 2.9   0.5  +0.4  100.0   0.0
 31  44. San Diego St       *MWC  7-2  10-2   8.8- 3.2   0.9  -3.9  100.0   0.0
 57  45. UNLV                MWC  7-2  10-2   9.1- 2.9   0.4  +0.4  100.0   0.0
 47  46. Boise St            MWC  6-3   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.5  +0.4  100.0   0.0
 50  49. Southern Miss       SUNw 7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8   0.3  +0.2  100.0   0.0
 53  50. New Mexico          MWC  6-3   8-4   8.1- 3.9   0.2  +0.2  100.0   0.0
 59  56. Auburn              SEC  4-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7   0.0   0.0   29.1 -14.8
 51  57. Mississippi St      SEC  5-5   5-7   5.7- 6.3   0.0   0.0   55.1 -15.1
 61  59. Ohio U.            *MAC  6-3   8-4   8.1- 3.9   0.0   0.0  100.0  +0.2
 84  61. Clemson             ACC  4-5   5-7   5.7- 6.3   0.0   0.0   59.1 +43.3
 80  62. Kentucky            SEC  4-5   5-7   5.5- 6.5   0.0   0.0   44.9 +32.4

Back to bowl odds, Auburn has to win out to make it; they have Mercer and Alabama left. Guess which one lowers their odds the most? Mississippi State has to win just one of two, and is only 55% likely to beat either of Missouri or Ole Miss. The latter is at home though. Kentucky upped their odds significantly by crushing Florida 38-7 last weekend; they get a freebie vs. Tennessee Tech, then need to beat either Vanderbilt or Louisville. Both are road games, hence the 45% chance. And Clemson rose a staggering 43% by dominating Florida State. Assuming Furman is a win, they need to beat either Louisville or South Carolina—both road games—to get six wins. So while they show 59% odds, they will be the underdog both games.

Penn State is 0-6 in the Big Ten, yet still favored in their next three games—but only has a 38% chance to win all three and become bowl eligible. Those games are: Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers. Only Nebraska is at home. Florida is 3-6 as well but has just a 4% chance of winning out against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida State (Florida has the toughest schedule in the country). California on the other hand, reached six wins by beating Louisville in overtime. Kansas needs one win from either Iowa State (road) or Utah (home) and they show 38% odds. And look at Central Florida. 55.8% last week, the loss to Houston knocked them down under 10%. It was 30-27, so it wasn't the magnitude of the loss. Nor was it an upset. It's just that it leaves them needing two wins with Texas Tech and BYU among the three games on their schedule. Sometimes it just comes down to: is there a path to six wins? And in this case, Houston was maybe a 45/55 game, and the Knights lost that 45% (or so) from their odds now.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%  chg 
 70  63. Penn State          B10  3-6   6-6   5.1- 6.9   0.0   0.0   37.6  +3.3
 86  66. California          ACC  6-4   6-6   6.7- 5.3   0.0   0.0  100.0 +41.3
 69  69. Navy                AAc  7-2   8-4   7.8- 4.2  <0.1  -0.1  100.0   0.0
 54  72. Florida             SEC  3-6   3-9   4.0- 8.0   0.0   0.0    4.0 -22.6
 77  76. Utah St             MWC  5-4   6-6   6.4- 5.6  <0.1   0.0   82.3 +13.0
 75  82. Kansas              B12  5-5   5-7   5.4- 6.6   0.0   0.0   35.3 -15.7
 97  83. Missouri St*        CUSA 6-3   7-5   7.1- 4.9   0.0   0.0  100.0 +18.4
 73  84. Central Florida     B12  4-5   5-7   5.1- 6.9   0.0   0.0    9.6 -46.2
 95  87. Rutgers             B10  5-5   5-7   5.3- 6.7   0.0   0.0   28.3 +12.5
101  88. Delaware*           CUSA 5-4   7-5   6.4- 5.6   0.0   0.0   89.4 +30.5
 94  89. West Virginia       B12  4-6   4-8   4.2- 7.8   0.0   0.0    0.5  +0.1

Navy lost their 2nd game in a row and has less than a 1 in 2000 chance to make the Playoff given their remaining games vs. South Florida and Memphis. But Utah State also shows a <0.1% prayer, and they're 5-4! In the Mountain West, the Aggies have to beat 7-2 UNLV, 6-3 Fresno, and 6-3 Boise, then 7-2 SDSU, a pretty great run if they can manage it. And two of their losses are to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, the others to 7-3 Hawaii and 6-3 New Mexico. Can they do all that and then finish ahead of a 4-loss Duke team who lost to UConn? Maybe <0.1% of the time! Missouri State just "qualified" by beating Liberty but aren't eligible, while fellow ineligible Delaware is on the verge after beating Louisiana Tech. Rutgers kept hope alive with a win over Maryland, while West Virginia needs to beat both Arizona State and Texas Tech, which we see as a 1 in 200 chance.

Mostly longshots below, many needing to win out. Texas State had a good chance (60%) to win 3 of their last 4 games but lost to Louisiana. Win this weekend at Southern Miss and they'll be back on track though, while Louisiana needs to beat both Arkansas State and rival ULM. Florida International is the only team below favored to make it to 6 wins, with Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston on the slate. Temple needs to beat either Tulane or North Texas and has a reasonable 39% chance of getting an upset, but last week's 14-13 loss at Army was their best shot.  

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%  chg
 81  90. Texas St-San Marcos SUNw 3-6   5-7   5.0- 7.0   0.0   0.0   22.5 -37.2
105  91. Florida Int'l       CUSA 4-5   5-7   5.7- 6.3   0.0   0.0   62.1 +30.9
 89  92. Temple              AAc  5-5   5-7   5.4- 6.6   0.0   0.0   39.0 -16.6
106  97. Louisiana-Lafayette SUNw 4-6   5-7   5.2- 6.8   0.0   0.0   31.2 +19.6
 83  98. Maryland            B10  4-5   4-8   4.8- 7.2   0.0   0.0   15.5 -28.4
 93 100. San Jose St         MWC  3-6   5-7   4.5- 7.5   0.0   0.0    7.9 -25.9
110 101. Wisconsin           B10  3-6   3-9   3.7- 8.3   0.0   0.0    0.1   0.0
107 102. Georgia Southern    SUNe 4-5   5-7   5.1- 6.9   0.0   0.0   29.4 +16.4
100 103. Bowling Green       MAC  3-7   5-7   4.5- 7.5   0.0   0.0    0.0 -34.1
122 106. Air Force           MWC  3-6   4-8   4.2- 7.8   0.0   0.0    6.2  +4.4

Maryland needs two wins from Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan State but that would mean breaking a 5-game losing streak. Of course Wisconsin just broke a 6-game losing streak by beating Washington, and they go from <0.1% odds to 0.1% odds to beat Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota. San Jose State lost to Air Force and now (8% odds) needs 3 wins vs. 1-8 Nevada, 7-2 SDSU, and 6-3 Fresno. Georgia Southern took the first step by beating Appalachian State, leaving themselves 29% odds to win 2 of their next 3. But Bowling Green's 34% chance to win 3 in a row evaporated quickly with a loss at Eastern Michigan. Last week Air Force faced the daunting task of winning 4 in a row to qualify; they beat San Jose State to raise their odds from 1.8% to 6.2% but still need to conquer UConn, New Mexico, and Colorado State.

Almost every team below needs to win out. One exception is Liberty who was above 50% before losing to Missouri State at home. Now the Flames need to win 2 of their last 3, which includes two road games and C-USA leader Kennesaw State at home. Appalachian State is in roughly the same boat: they were above water before an upset and need two wins out of James Madison (on the road!), Marshall, and Arkansas State. Can Michigan State beat Penn State, Iowa, and Maryland? Not the worst slate, but the Spartans are 0-6 in Big Ten play so they have a 1.1% chance. Akron's odds are much better (20%) but they have only two games left, Kent State and Bowling Green. Speaking of Kent State, they lost to Ball State and now have to beat Akron, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois, about a 5% undertaking. (NOTE: Kent State beat Akron in overtime Tuesday night, putting Akron at 0% and Kent State at...maybe 10%? We'll have to see next week)

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk    Cume  Playoff  chg   Bowl%  chg
 96 107. Liberty             CUSA 4-5   5-7   5.0- 7.0   0.0   0.0   27.4 -36.2
102 108. Michigan St         B10  3-6   4-8   3.9- 8.1   0.0   0.0    1.1  -0.9
 98 109. Appalachian St      SUNe 4-5   5-7   5.0- 7.0   0.0   0.0   27.0 -31.4
111 111. Akron               MAC  4-6   5-7   4.9- 7.1   0.0   0.0   20.0  +7.3
108 112. Virginia Tech       ACC  3-6   3-9   3.2- 8.8   0.0   0.0    0.1   0.0
109 115. UCLA                B10  3-6   3-9   3.3- 8.7   0.0   0.0   <0.1  -0.3
121 117. New Mexico St       CUSA 3-6   4-8   4.1- 7.9   0.0   0.0    0.4  -7.6
120 122. Kent St             MAC  3-6   3-9   4.1- 7.9   0.0   0.0    5.3 -11.6
113 125. Alabama-Birmingham  AAc  3-6   3-9   3.4- 8.6   0.0   0.0    0.1  -1.7
129 128. Louisiana-Monroe    SUNw 3-6   3-9   3.5- 8.5   0.0   0.0    0.5  -0.2

Virginia Tech has just a 1 in 1000 shot at beating all of FSU, Miami, and Virginia. UCLA is back at <0.1% after climbing briefly to 0.7% at 3-4, but losses to Indiana and Nebraska took the wind out of their sails. They need to beat Ohio State on the road this weekend, then top Washington at home and USC on the road. Easy-peasy! New Mexico State has a much easier path but it goes through Tennessee leaving the Aggies 0.4% odds. UAB has North Texas and South Florida next, while ULM does have three seemingly winnable games—South Alabama, Texas State, and Louisiana—but they're underdog in all three and have a 1 in 200 chance of winning out.