Week 8 preview: SEC showcase: Bama-Tennessee, Georgia-Ole Miss, LSU-Vandy

Let's get right to it. Indiana has an otherworldly 99.3% chance to make the Playoff mostly due to their nearly 6-point lead in our power rating, which seems a bit unsustainable. What do they have to do against Michigan State to keep their numbers that high? Probably win by at least 38 points. They are a 27 1/2 point favorite. Miami's odds are nearly as high at 97%, and beating Louisville would be enough to put them near Hoosier territory. The Cardinals are just outside the projected Final Top 25 and a Friday night win would re-ignite their Playoff chances. Ohio State plays at Wisconsin where Iowa just won by 37 points, so the Buckeyes need a blowout to move the needle on their 94% odds. And Texas Tech is the last of the 90% club; beating Arizona State by any amount would keep them there. In the SEC, #6 Texas A&M needs a win at Arkansas to keep their 2 in 3 odds.

On to the good games: Alabama hosts Tennessee and although the Tide are at 84% they have a lot to lose if they get their 2nd loss. It's their 4th AP-ranked team in a row and those wins are why they're ranked so high even with a loss. The Vols are also 5-1 and need this one to get back in the conversation.

Mississippi goes to Georgia and something's gotta give: the loser probably drops out of the projected field, at least for now.  The winner gets a huge boost, probably to the 70% zone. I guess we'll see whether Ole Miss was looking ahead last week, and if Lane Kiffin's "dynasties are over" comment motivates the Bulldogs.

And Notre Dame hosts USC in a very important game for the Irish. It's their toughest game left, and getting a 3rd loss would shrink their 56% odds to near single-digits, while the Trojans would be in the 12-team field. 

  
Rank Team                Conf Rec Playoff    Next opp:
  1. Indiana            *B10  6-0   99.3%    Michigan St
  2. Miami FL           *ACC  5-0   96.9%    Louisville
  3. Ohio State          B10  6-0   94.2%  @ Wisconsin
  4. Texas Tech         *B12  6-0   90.4%  @ Arizona St
  5. Alabama            *SEC  5-1   84.0%    #22 Tennessee
  6. Texas A&M           SEC  6-0   67.0%  @ Arkansas
  7. Mississippi         SEC  6-0   58.9%  @ #9 Georgia
  8. Notre Dame          Ind  4-2   56.3%    #14 USC
  9. Georgia             SEC  5-1   56.6%    #7 Ole Miss
 10. Oregon              B10  5-1   49.6%  @ Rutgers
 11. South Florida      *AAc  5-1   51.2%    FL Atlantic
 12. Utah                B12  5-1   40.8%  @ #15 BYU
 13. Virginia            ACC  5-1   26.1%    Washington St
 14. Southern Cal        B10  5-1   31.7%  @ #8 Notre Dame
 15. Brigham Young       B12  6-0   27.8%    #12 Utah
 16. Oklahoma            SEC  5-1   31.3%  @ South Carolina
 17. Florida St          ACC  3-3   13.3%  @ Stanford
 18. LSU                 SEC  5-1   25.5%  @ #20 Vanderbilt
 19. Memphis             AAc  6-0   29.9%  @ UAB
 20. Vanderbilt          SEC  5-1   24.0%    #18 LSU
 21. Georgia Tech        ACC  6-0   14.9%  @ Duke
 22. Tennessee           SEC  5-1   15.8%  @ #5 Alabama
 23. Illinois            B10  5-2    7.5%       idle
 24. Nebraska            B10  5-1   13.1%  @ Minnesota
 25. Michigan            B10  4-2   11.9%    Washington

Oregon is in a weird place at 50/50, their worst odds of the year so far. The win over Penn State has diminished to a footnote and they face an uphill battle to make the Big Ten title game. If they struggle at Rutgers they might slip outside the projected field. The Ducks are 17 1/2 point favorites but they need to win by around 25 to move above 50% and hold their position. South Florida is also about 50/50 and have a "gimme" game hosting Florida Atlantic; they need a similar 20+ point win to stay at the par they've established. 

The last team in the projected field of 12 is Utah who faces a solid challenge at #15 BYU. The Utes are a 3 1/2 point favorite and by our power rating, they should win by around 5. If the Cougars win they will replace the Utes in the projected field almost certainly, so this is a high-leverage contest.

Virginia hosts Washington State and can't afford to have a close game like Ole Miss did last week. The Rebels lost almost 15% for their 24-21 win! They won't gain much from a win alone, but a close game won't hurt them as much as it did Mississippi, since the Cavs are only at 26.1% anyway. Our system has them winning by 23 points, while Ole Miss was supposed to win by 35. Virginia is a 17 1/2 point favorite by the oddsmakers. 

Oklahoma can get a modest boost by winning at South Carolina after losing last week to Texas. Florida State has 3 losses and their odds won't climb much by beating Stanford, in fact it's likely the Seminoles continue to lose odds without a blowout win. FSU is favored by 18 1/2 and needs to win by 30+ to gain back the mojo they had for their first three games. Georgia Tech is another ACC contender but unlike FSU, undefeated. They need to stay that way or the party will be over soon. They play at Duke and are the underdog. Memphis, like conference-mate USF, has a freebie this week (20+ pt. favorite) at UAB but has to avoid the road trap that could spoil their season.

The fifth out of five big games this week is the smallest: LSU at Vanderbilt. Both minor SEC contenders have a loss and claim 1 in 4 chances at a Playoff berth. The winner will boost those odds but probably not to the level needed to make the projected field, while the loser might exit the top 25. Vandy is actually favored by 2 1/2, and our power rating agrees.

The last three teams in the top 25 right now are all from the Big Ten. Illinois and Michigan both have two losses and another one will pretty much close the door. Illinois is idle and doesn't have to worry about that, but Michigan hosts a solid Washington team that is looking to join the top 25 themselves. Nebraska has one loss (to Cincinnati) and goes to Minnesota. The Cornhuskers don't play Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon so every win is another step toward the Big Ten title game.