Week 8 post-mortem: So many teams lost, nothing changed

So many teams lost, nothing changed. That sums up last weekend in a nutshell.

We warned that Miami's rating wouldn't change much for losing to Louisville, and in the end it changed less than we expected, because So Many Teams Lost. The Canes fell just to #3, down 5.2%, still above 90% to make the Playoff. Indiana only beat Michigan State 38-13, the exact score UCLA did but held their super-high Playoff odds because So Many Teams Lost. For the same reason, Ohio State's 34-0 win at Wisconsin (compare to Iowa's 37-0 win) bumped the Buckeyes above 97%. 

Alabama added almost 6% because they beat Tennessee and because So Many Teams Lost, like Texas Tech, who fell to Arizona State but only dropped one spot because...well, you know. Texas A&M should have been punished for only beating Arkansas by a point but because S.M.T.L. they jumped above 75%. Georgia scored a solid win over Ole Miss and as they should, jumped 17% to 73%. Mississippi lost 15%, the same amount they lost last week for their close call with Washington State. Because SMTL, the Rebels didn't fall out of the projection.

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk   Cume    Playoff  chg  Champ%  chg
  1   1. Indiana            *B10  7-0  12-0  11.8-0.2   99.4   +0.1   28.8  -0.5
  3   2. Ohio State          B10  7-0  12-0  11.5-0.5   97.1   +2.9   17.3  +4.8
  2   3. Miami FL           *ACC  5-1  11-1  10.4-1.6   91.7   -5.2    7.2  -2.6
  5   4. Alabama            *SEC  6-1  11-1  10.1-1.9   89.9   +5.9    7.5  -0.7
  4   5. Texas Tech         *B12  6-1  11-1  10.5-1.5   78.2  -12.2    5.9  -1.8
  6   6. Texas A&M           SEC  7-0  10-2  10.4-1.6   75.8   +8.8    2.7  -0.2
  9   7. Georgia             SEC  6-1  11-1   9.8-2.2   72.7  +16.1    3.2  +0.6
  8   8. Notre Dame          Ind  5-2  10-2   9.7-2.3   77.3  +21.0    8.5  +2.5
 10   9. Oregon              B10  6-1  11-1  10.1-1.9   64.9  +15.3    9.6  +4.3
  7  10. Mississippi         SEC  6-1  10-2   9.6-2.4   44.0  -14.9    1.2  -0.4
 27  11. Louisville          ACC  5-1  11-1  10.0-2.0   46.0  +38.5    0.4  +0.3
 11  12. South Florida      *AAc  6-1  11-1  10.3-1.7   62.1  +10.9    0.4   0.0

Notre Dame beat USC and rose 21%, a real indication of the SMTL effect, since no one needs Many Teams To Lose more than a team that already has 2 losses. Oregon trashed Rutgers 56-10, a win you wouldn't think would help a lot but the Ducks added 15% and their odds of winning the national title got a good boost from the blowout win. Louisville was perhaps the one team that didn't depend on the fact that SMTL—they beat Miami and soared 38.5% to nearly 50% odds. They still face hurdles in getting to the ACC title game and they're borderline without that. South Florida's jump was a result of One Team Losing (Memphis) as it wasn't because of beating Florida Atlantic 48-13 that they added 10%.

Louisville's chances depend a lot on what Virginia and Georgia Tech do for the rest of the year. Neither team plays the Cardinals, nor Miami, so both could win out and reach the ACC title game. Virginia, who has no ACC losses despite their loss to NC State (??) pulled an Ole Miss and tried their best to lose to Washington State but failed. It hardly harmed their odds as they aren't ranked this high due to their power rating. Georgia Tech isn't either, but they have no losses at all and the algorithm is finally convinced they have a shot, at least about the same as the Cavs' 1 in 4 shot. BYU, also 7-0 after beating Utah, jumped about 16% while the Utes fell 19% (and out of the Projection, though they were pretty tenuous at the last spot). Oklahoma barely gained despite a solid 26-7 win over South Carolina, probably due to their looming schedule (three 6-1 teams, and two 5-2).

                                  Curr   Projected        Simulation Odds
 LW Rank Team                Conf Rec  Chalk   Cume    Playoff  chg  Champ%  chg
 15  13. Brigham Young       B12  7-0  11-1  10.0-2.0   43.7  +15.9    0.9  +0.2
 13  14. Virginia            ACC  6-1  10-2  10.0-2.0   25.3   -0.8    0.1  -0.2
 20  15. Vanderbilt          SEC  6-1   9-3   9.2-2.8   32.4   +8.4    0.9  +0.1
 21  16. Georgia Tech        ACC  7-0  11-1  10.2-1.8   26.1  +11.2    0.1   0.0
 16  17. Oklahoma            SEC  6-1   9-3   8.8-3.2   34.6   +3.3    1.3  -0.1
 12  18. Utah                B12  5-2  10-2   9.3-2.7   21.8  -19.0    1.3  -1.4
 26  19. North Texas         AAc  6-1  11-1  10.6-1.4   23.8  +12.3   <0.1   0.0
 14  20. Southern Cal        B10  5-2   9-3   8.7-3.3    8.7  -23.0    1.1  -2.3
 23  21. Illinois            B10  5-2   9-3   8.8-3.2    6.0   -1.5    0.1  -0.1
 25  22. Michigan            B10  5-2   9-3   8.7-3.3   11.2   -0.7    0.6  +0.1
 32  23. Missouri            SEC  6-1   8-4   8.3-3.7   13.1   +2.5    0.2   0.0
 18  24. LSU                 SEC  5-2   8-4   7.7-4.3    7.4  -18.1    0.2  -0.7
 22  25. Tennessee           SEC  5-2  10-2   8.0-4.0    7.0   -8.8    0.1  -0.2

North Texas leapt back into the swing of things just like that, and all it took was a huge upset loss by Memphis. And a 55-17 blowout of UTSA. The Mean Green might get that rematch with USF, and a win there puts them in the Playoff. A trio of Big Ten teams follows, led by USC who fell to Notre Dame and lost 23% down to single digits. Illinois, who should edge the Trojans by virtue of their win over them, were idle and slipped a bit (probably the win over USC lost some value). Michigan, who lost to USC two weeks ago, beat Washington 24-7 but only treaded water (probably USC's fault too).

Three SEC teams round out the also-rans. Missouri stayed in double digits and jumped back into the top 25 with a road win over Auburn. LSU and Tennessee both have two losses now, and thus are in single digits, with the Tigers hurt a lot more by the loss to Vandy than the Vols were by losing to Alabama, but they end up in the same boat.