Bubble Report March 12 2026 (pre-games)

The aftermath of yesterday's Bubble Bloodbath is that teams you never would expect to have remained above the waterline are still in contention for a bid. 

First, these are teams that any other year would be a coin flip but they all look really secure right now. NC State is still alive and Missouri starts today; neither looks in much danger and should keep or improve their current seed. 

                                      3/11   3/8   Conf          Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed 3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 39. N.C. State           ACC  20-12  64.9  +2.3    2.3        10   10    10    9    9 
 40. Missouri             SEC  20-11  62.2  -0.6    0.1        10   10    10   10   10 
 41. SMU                  ACC  20-13  60.5   0.0    0.0        11   11    11   11   11 
 42. Santa Clara          WCC  26-8   57.4 +14.0    0.0        11p        11p  11p  11p

SMU ought to be in big trouble but they are pretty secure according to the Dance Chance, and Santa Clara wasn't passed by anyone yesterday since all the candidates lost. We won't even track them unless everyone wins today, which could change things.

Now the teams that are on the borderline. Again, some of these are remarkable. California and Stanford both should be below the waterline but no one rose to dunk them under it yesterday so their losses didn't hurt them as much as they normally would have. Still, they are by no means safe; anyone below them still alive could put them on the wrong side of the bubble. VCU doesn't play until tomorrow but New Mexico and San Diego State have games today. 

                                      3/11   3/8   Conf          Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed 3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 43. California           ACC  21-11  52.4  -1.3    0.0        11p  11p   50%  50%  50%
 44. Stanford             ACC  20-12  52.1  -1.4    0.0        11p  11p   50%  50%  50%
 45. VCU                  A10  24-7   49.3  +5.5   25.5        11p        15%  40%  11p
 46. New Mexico           MWC  22-9   47.7  +7.8   20.6                   40%  40%  45%
 47. Miami OH             MAC  31-0   46.2  +6.6   24.5                   ---  15%  30%
 48. San Diego St.        MWC  20-10  44.5  +0.2   15.6             11p   35%  40%  45%
 49. Cincinnati           B12  18-15  39.1  +7.7    0.0                   35%  35%  35%
 50. Texas                SEC  18-14  35.8 -12.5    0.0             11p   30%  30%  30%

Miami Ohio plays today and it looks like the Dance Chance is going to be really harsh if they lose anywhere in the MAC tournament. Cincinnati and Texas are not as dead as they would be had other teams won. Still, Texas is the first real "casualty" of the Bubble Wars: they were in before conference tournaments and they're on the out-side now. San Diego State also randomly dropped from the seedings since Sunday but they're still alive and can work their way back in.

The teams below are the more longshot hopefuls. Seton Hall goes from a longshot to secure if they win two games. Auburn has 15 losses and that will be 16 at some point; 17-16 doesn't look good and the Dance Chance doesn't like 18-16 or even 19-16 that much. Making the SEC final might get them some respect, but they are at 31.3% in "now" odds. That's at 15 losses though. 

                                      3/11   3/8   Conf          Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed 3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 51. Seton Hall           BE   20-11  35.6 +11.3    2.7                   ---  20%  11 
 52. Auburn               SEC  17-15  31.3 +17.3    1.2                   ---   5%  10%
 53. Virginia Tech        ACC  19-13  30.9  -9.9    0.0                   15%  15%  15%
 54. South Florida        Amer 23-8   28.8  +6.2   42.6        11         ---   5%  11 
 55. West Virginia        B12  18-14  24.6  -9.1    0.0                   10%  10%  10%
 56. Indiana              B10  18-14  23.5 -14.1    0.0                    5%   5%   5%
 57. Oklahoma             SEC  18-14  22.3 +10.1    0.3                   ---  ---  15%

Virginia Tech and Indiana both lost yesterday and their odds will be pretty low when all is said and done. South Florida might have the same small prayer if they don't win the American. Oklahoma won yesterday and got "on the bubble" but they need two wins before they'll have any lasting odds. They play Texas A&M today.

The teams below are off the bubble now. Tulsa has nearly the same odds to win the American as USF but they need to win three games. Akron also has good odds to get an auto-bid but failing that they'll be knocked below the realistic level for an at-large. McNeese shows up with a 15% chance for an at-large bid they don't need, which usually happens when teams clinch the auto-bid—suddenly they look like there's a chance for an at-large.

                                      3/11   3/8   Conf          Seed     Conf Tourney
Rank Team                 Conf Rec   %Odds  %Chg  %Odds 1-seed 3/11 3/8   +0w  +1w  +2w

 58. Tulsa                Amer 25-6   17.6  +0.1   38.2             11    ---  ---  ---
 59. Akron                MAC  26-5   15.9  -0.8   55.5        12   12    ---  ---  ---
 60. McNeese              Slnd 28-5   15.2  +7.5  100.0        12   12    12   12   12 
 61. Oklahoma St.         B12  19-14  11.8  -1.2    0.0                   ---  ---  ---
 62. Boise St.            MWC  20-12  11.0 -22.3    0.0                   ---  ---  ---

Oklahoma State and Boise State fell off the bubble in a big way yesterday, especially the Broncos whose hopes were absolutely crushed by a terrible upset loss. They couldn't have asked for a better day—every bubble team lost—and they had the easiest game of anyone with a path toward more big wins. March Madness has already claimed a victim.