SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Heavyweight Boxing Top 10 update for October 10, 2021

With the big fights we had over the weekend, we're going to jump the gun and update the monthly Top 100 a bit early to reflect the results. Tyson Fury is of course the big news, capturing the SportsRatings Heavyweight belt yet again.

Fury first captured the belt on November 28, 2015 when he beat Wladimir Klitschko. He held it as the rematch loomed but ultimately never came and Fury went inactive on November 29, 2016—making then-#4 Deontay Wilder the interim champ as #2 Klitschko and #3 Alex Povetkin were also inactive.

Fury's comeback bout with Sefer Seferi didn't register as a rated fight, so it wasn't until he beat Francesco Pianeta on August 18, 2018 that he regained the belt. He had remained at the #1 spot all along but the interim belt was held by Wilder, Povetkin, and Anthony Joshua for almost two years. And just one month after Fury regained the title, Joshua beat Povetkin to claim the belt himself!

Fury had a chance to reclaim the belt against Deontay Wilder in December of 2018 but that fight was an infamous draw. Instead, he regained the belt in an unusual manner: when Andy Ruiz Jr upset Joshua on June 1, 2019, Ruiz only jumped to #2, making Fury the belt holder instead! He held it through his wins over Tom Schwarz (non-rated) and Otto Wallin, but when Joshua beat Ruiz in the rematch in December of 2019 he regained the belt again. That's three times holding the belt for Fury, twice for Joshua at this point.

But it wasn't long before Fury struck again, beating Wilder in their rematch on February 22, 2020 and grabbing the belt for the fourth time. Of course we know what happened next: Fury vs. Joshua was all but a done deal when Wilder invoked the rematch clause, the fight was scheduled, then delayed, and in February of 2021 Fury lost the belt again due to inactivity.

Joshua missed a chance to reclaim it last month vs. Oleksandr Usyk, who jumped to #2 behind Fury, then just last weekend, October 9, 2021, Fury took the belt for the 5th time. In total he lost the belt twice purely for inactivity, and twice being jumped over on rating points by Anthony Joshua.

SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 10 for fights through October 9, 2021

-3 yrs	-1 yr	-6 mo	Oct Rank	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	October 1-9 results
2	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	52.41	19-0-1	KO 11 #5 DEONTAY WILDER
--	24	24	2	2	OLEKSANDR USYK	35.64	3-0-0
1	2	2	3	3	ANTHONY JOSHUA	33.42	17-2-0
6	9	4	4	4	DILLIAN WHYTE	26.35	14-2-0
38	5	5	6	5	ANDY RUIZ JR	24.71	14-2-0
--	14	11	11	6	FRANK SANCHEZ	20.66	5-0-0	UD 10 #9 EFE AJAGBA
4	4	6	7	7	ALEX POVETKIN	19.59	30-3-1	--last rated win -14 months.
47	27	8	8	8	JOE JOYCE	18.20	8-0-0
26	13	9	10	9	JOSEPH PARKER	17.95	18-2-0
3	3	3	5	10	DEONTAY WILDER	17.82	18-2-1	L KO 11 #1 TYSON FURY

Deontay Wilder drops from #5 to #10. He's been winless for two years now as both rematches played out. Most would argue he did better this time, and really, the third fight was sort of a combination of the first two—Wilder almost knocked Fury out, and Fury bullied Wilder into submission. His career from this point on will be interesting.

The other big winner of the weekend was Frank Sanchez, who won a decision over previously unbeated Efe Ajagba and jumped from #11 to #6. He showed good skill—and experience—in neutralizing Ajagba's size and power advantage to hand him his first loss. It gives confidence that he might be able to handle the size of some of the giants in the top ten, but all of them have a lot more experience than Ajagba. A fight with #9 Joseph Parker or Ruiz might be interesting, or #4 Dillian Whyte—but Whyte deserves a title shot not yet another eliminator.

Where does this leave the heavyweight division? Well, Wilder is out of the picture for a while at least. Fury is in, and with luck will fight the winner of the Joshua-Usyk rematch. Again, Dillian Whyte has been waiting years, so why not Fury-Whyte in the UK?

Tyson Fury - Deontay Wilder III Round-by-round scoring

#1 Tyson Fury vs. #5 Deontay Wilder for the undisputed SportsRatings Heavyweight championship. 

Round-by-round scoring will follow the prelims. For coverage of Ajagba-Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki see this post.

Entrances are done, fight is starting within minutes.

• Round One: Quick body jabs from Wilder. 3rd body jab. 4th. 1-2 to the body, he's really focusing on the body, now he goes upstairs and connects. Very active, Fury not throwing yet. More body jabs, unexpected by Fury. More body shots. Fury tries 1-2 then clinches. Jab to the head from Wilder. Big shot from Wilder misses. Right to the body, and again. Fury returns fire, clinch headlock. Fury connects with 1-2 late but round to Wilder 10-9.
• Round Two: Wilder jabbing again but not as forcefully. Fury attacks, Wilder launches counterattack, then clinch. Fury body hook, now clinches. Big shot from Wilder misses narrowly as Fury jumps back. Ref allowing clinch work from Fury. Right hand by Wilder, Fury comes back and clinches. More wrestling near the end of the round. Closer round 10-10; Wilder 20-19.
• Round Three: Fury body shot of his own. Wilder's jabs not as forceful. Fury on the attack more, he comes in an clinches, tries to in-fight. Wilder a few jabs but he's backing up more now. Fury headlock is stopped by the ref quickly, warns against headlock. Wild swinging by both fighters, Wilder connects with a strong right. Fury returns strong jab. More big swings by both fighters look tired. Fury short shot puts Wilder down for an 8-count, he's hurt. Wilder holding on and survives. 10-8 Fury; 29-28.
• Round Four: Wilder looks shaky, Fury has him against ropes. Wilder holds on. Fury is tired too but Wilder just looking for one shot. Fury has Wilder against ropes. Big shot from Wilder puts Fury on the canvas, he barely gets up! Fury gets big shot in, but Fury goes down yet again! Round ends! Wilder 10-7; Wilder 38-36
• Round Five: Jabs from Wilder, big punch from Fury misses. Ref struggles to separate them. Fury is looking better, Wilder still swinging for the fences. Fury 1-2 rocks Wilder. They wrestle-fight which helps Fury. Wilder connects with 2 big rights! Wilder measuring him, Fury swings big too. They clinch, both are spent. Another clinch. Crazy round, 10-10; Wilder 48-46.
• Round Six: Fury trying to box more, looks recovered pretty well. Fury right hook then clinches. Wilder swinging a lot. Fury wrestling a lot, almost makes Wilder take a knee. Big punch from both fighters. Fury suddenly comes alive, Wilder responds, Fury charges in again. Fury pressuring Wilder. Fury got the best of the action one way or another 10-9; Wilder 57-56.
• Round Seven: Fury big 1-2, tries to clinch and pressure but ref doesn't let him. Fury now pushing against the ropes, trying to brawl his way to a win. Ducks Wilder's big right; this is starting to look like the 2nd fight. Big right from Fury. Uppercuts from Fury in clinch. Big right from Wilder, Fury wears it well; another 1-2 form Wilder. Fury responds, Wilder is in trouble, barely staying up. Fury 10-9; 66-66.
• Round Eight: Fury looks confident, Wilder unsteady. Fury pressuring against the ropes. Big right from Wilder, doesn't affect Fury right now. Fury responds with big shots, Wilder survives somehow. Fury wobbles Wilder. Wilder clinches for last 10 seconds. Fury 10-9; 76-75.
• Round Nine: Concerns about Wilder's right hand, but he says its okay. Fury looks fresh, Wilder looks wobbly still. Wilder comes alive with punches but Fury weathers the storm. Big flurry from Fury, WIlder stays up. Big clinch, wrestling from Fury. Wilder's energy is low but he keeps trying to land right. Fury getting the better of it, Wilder lands big uppercut near the end. Fury 10-9; 86-84. 
• Round Ten: Fury combination puts Wilder against the ropes again, Wilder getting beat up again. Wilder sleepwalking around the ring, huge shot by Fury puts Wilder down, but he somehow gets up! Wilder trying to survive. Big uppercut from Fury, Wilder has crazy flurry at end! But still 10-8 Fury with the knockdown, Fury 96-92.
• Round Eleven: Clinching from Fury, Wilder pinned against rings after hard shot. Big uppercut from Wilder and another one. Wilder is down and fight is waved off. Tyson Fury KO 11 Deontay Wilder

Tyson Fury regains the SportsRatings Heavyweight Belt with the 11th round KO in an incredible fight from both fighters. Wilder will get a lot of respect in the boxing world for his effort.

Fury-Wilder III Undercard: Ajagba-Sanchez, Helenius-Kownacki round-by-round scoring

The Fury-Wilder undercard has two big-time heavyweight fights: #9 Efe Ajagba vs. #11 Frank Sanchez, and #23 Robert Helenius vs. #54 Adam Kownacki.

Two other heavyweight fights of interest are on the undercard. 

• #44 Viktor Faust TKO 3 #145 Mike Marshall
• #24 Jared AndersonTKO 2 Vladimir Tereshkin

We will have round-by-round scoring for the Ajagba-Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki bouts.

First up is Helenius-Kownacki II

• Round One: Helenius hard shot to the body. Countering Kownacki's jabs too; now he ties up. Kownacki good jab to the jaw. Kownacki has a beard now, too so he looks like a shorter Helenius. Helenius throwing good jabs. Helenius throwing hard leather. Has him against the ropes, unloading on Kownacki who survives to the bell. Very solid round for Helenius 10-9.
• Round Two: Tie-up early. Kownacki coming in close, trying to close the distance. Helenius strikes from afar and ties up. Kownacki is pressing the action. Good shot in the corner rocks Helenius. Both of Kownacki's eyes are swollen. Helenius is slower this round like he used a lot of energy in the first round. Still jabbing well late in the round. More jabs and 1-2s late evens up the round 10-10; 20-19 Helenius.
• Round Three: Helenius relaxed, Kownacki pressing the action again but Helenius counters well. More tie-ups as Kownacki closes in. Kownacki trying to keep a high work-rate but having mixed success. Kownacki slows down near the end again and Helenius unloads jabs and 1-2 shots that wobble Kownacki until a low blow bends Helenius over right near the end of the round. No point taken but round goes to Helenius 10-9; 30-28.
• Round Four: More jabs from Helenius and close work by Kownacki leads to clinch; ref not allowing inside work. A few good shots from Kownacki. More jabs from Helenius, uppercut too but not a lot on it. Helenius avoiding Kownacki's closing, looks a bit like Tyson Fury slipping these shots. 1-2 from the outside now late in the round. Kownacki's face is bloodied. Helenius 10-9; 40-37.
• Round Five: Kownacki closing in with more head movement early. Another low blow from Kownacki in the clinch gets a point taken from Kownacki. Kownacki pressing the action again, having some success, but getting a lot in return from Helenius. 1-2 from Helenius at distance as Kownacki not closing in late in the round, making him a sitting duck for Helenius. He's in trouble with 30 seconds left. Helenius not in any hurry, maybe a bit tired. 10-8 for Helenius with the deduction; 50-45 Helenius.
• Round Six: The doctor considered stopping the fight between rounds due to Kownacki's eyes. Helenius is taking his time, making sure not to gas himself. He can afford to be relaxed because Kownacki isn't throwing much anymore. He's also not closing the distance which helps Helenius. Kownacki is almost out of jab range even.  Both fighters are taking this round off. Strangely the ref stopped the fight, apparently it was for low blows. Helenius wins by DQ.

In replay there was a clear groin shot by Kownacki, about the only thing he had thrown the entire sixth round. Helenius looked pretty good overall, while Kownacki looked bad physically and mentally, not responding well to his first loss at all.

Now: the top ten eliminator with undefeated fighters: Efe Ajagba vs. Frank Sanchez

• Round One: Feeling out process early, little action in first minute. Flurry by Ajagba misses and Sanchez counters. Ajagba stalking Sanchez. Body blow by Ajagba, Sanchez good counter. Sanchez definitely looking to counter...whiffs on big hook. Not much happened though. 10-10.
• Round Two: More action this round, still not wild by any means. Long Jabs by Ajagba, counters by Sanchez. Sanchez shuffles in with double jab attempt. Big overhand by Sanchez is first real solid punch, Ajagba took it well. Sanchez against the ropes with Ajagba in center of ring. Counter jabs by Sanchez score. Sanchez fast on his strikes. Very slight advantage to Sanchez 10-9; 20-19.
• Round Three: Ajagba slugging hard with his shots, mostly blocked. Good right by Sanchez, Ajagba whiffs as Sanchez ducks. Ajagba having trouble finding Sanchez, who doesn't have many opportunities himself. Good exchange, Sanchez probably connected better. Decent shot by Ajagba. Jab by Sanchez. Another close round for Sanchez 10-9; 30-28.
• Round Four: Sanchez still frustrating Ajagba with movement and counters. A few jabs by Ajagba. Stalking but not letting it go. Big hook by Sanchez, mostly blocked. Ajagba not pulling the trigger standing in front of Sanchez. Body shots by Ajagba. Probably too close to give to Ajagba. 10-10; 40-38 Sanchez.
• Round Five: More posturing by both fighters. Ajagba pushes Sanchez into the ropes. Traps him there again and Sanchez avoids body shots. Tie-up as both miss. Even first half of round. Crowd starting to boo. They mix it up a bit but nothing effective. Sanchez really not doing anything at all either as Ajagba stalks him. Tie up near the end of the round. 10-9 Ajagba since Sanchez did nothing; 49-48 Sanchez.
• Round Six: Body jab by Ajagba. Counter by Sanchez after Ajagba lunge. Blocking each other's jabs. Solid right from Ajagba connects.Wild swing by Sanchez causes a slip, might have been hit by Ajagba. Ajagba 10-9 since that could have been knock down. 59-59.
• Round Seven: Drop was ruled a slip, so a 10-9 for Ajagba is probably fair. More mixing it up this round but to no one's advantage. Sanchez lands a jab and cross to the face. Both fighters looking more focused. Great counter from Sanchez on uppercut. Last minute is slower. Holy crap, Sanchez knocks Ajagba down, but then Sanchez hits him while on one knee. No penalty for the illegal shot, and no count? That was crazy. 10-8 Sanchez; 69-67
• Round Eight: Ajagba looks pretty recovered. Stalking again big shots from Sanchez, he smells blood now. Ajagba recovers and goes back to stalking, some good body shots. Not much else happens. Sanchez 10-9; 79-76.
• Round Nine: Ajagba needs a knockdown for a draw on our card with 2 rounds left. Corner imploring him. Sanchez staying conservative as he looks to protect his lead and not take chances. Not looking for KO really anymore since Ajagba took those last shots well. But Ajagba isn't doing anything either. Big clash amounts to nothing connected. Big overhand right from Ajagba might win him that round. 10-9 Ajagba; 88-86 Sanchez.
• Round Ten: Corner REALLY imploring Ajagba to let his hands go for the KO. Sanchez standing in front, backing down less at first, but backs up to ropes eventually. Ajagba lunges in for a right. Sanchez counters with a right off Ajagba's jabs. Round half over and Ajagba is only slightly more active. Sanchez jumps in and connects. Sanchez doing a good job evading any opportunity for Ajagba, who let the round go without really trying for the KO. Sanchez 10-9; Sanchez 98-95.

Our "three" cards, splitting the 10-10 rounds, would be Sanchez 98-93; Sanchez 98-95; Sanchez 96-95. Should be a unanimous decision for Frank Sanchez.

Official decision: Sanchez 97-92; 98-91; 98-91.

A big step forward for Frank Sanchez, while Efe Ajagba drops his first fight. As the younger fighter he had less to lose, providing he responds well to his first loss, unlike Adam Kownacki.

Fury-Wilder III undercard full of solid fights

When Fury-Wilder III was postponed a few months ago, the fear was that the great undercard would fall apart but that didn't happen. So now we have a total of three excellent heavyweight bouts and two more involving our Top 100.

First and foremost of course is the headliner, the trilogy between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder.

#1 Tyson Fury (30-0-1) 21KO vs. #5 Deontay Wilder (42-1-1) 41KO

For SportsRatings, this is only the 4th true heavyweight title fight since Fury upset Wlad Klitschko in November of 2015. By this we mean a fight where the winner would become our undisputed heavyweight champion. For example, with Fury inactive Klitschko, then #2,  took on Anthony Joshua (ranked #6) but that was only for the interim title. Likewise when Fury came back against #186 Francisco Pianeta, only Fury would capture the title with a win.

The other "true" title fights were:

• In November of 2018 #2 Anthony Joshua beat #3 Alex Povetkin and took over the #1 spot;
• December, 2019, #2 Andy Ruiz Jr lost to #4 Joshua, who captured the title;
• February, 2020, #1 Fury (inactive at the time) beat #4 Wilder to regain the title

The first Fury-Wilder in December 2018 wasn't a true title fight as only Fury had a chance to take the title (and the draw kept it from being a title fight for him). The first Joshua-Ruiz bout wasn't a title fight for Ruiz, who jumped to #2 behind Fury.

Most recently, Aleksandr Usyk's win over Joshua put him at the #2 spot—and enabled Saturday's fight to be a title fight for both Fury and Wilder.

With Fury at #1, any win over a rated heavyweight would capture the belt. Wilder has fallen to #5 and is also inactive, but a win over Fury would put him well past Usyk at #1.

What about a loss? Fury would drop to #3 behind Wilder and Usyk, but remain very slightly ahead of Joshua. It would be quite the logjam. If Wilder loses he'll fall to near the bottom of the top 10.

#9 Efe Ajagba (15-0-0) 12 KOs vs. #11 Frank Sanchez (18-0-0) 13KOs

This is a great undercard fight and could headline most heavyweight shows. Both are arguably top ten fighters, but this bout will put one fighter squarely in the top ten and the other will be firmly out, for now.

Ajagba has 10 rated wins to Sanchez' four, but their ratings are pretty similar with Ajagba only two rankings spots ahead. The fighter who wins will jump to around #7, the loser will fall to somewhere in the 20s.

A lot at stake here for momentum between the Nigerian fighter and the Cuban, one getting a big boost, the other taking a big step back.

#23 Robert Helenius (30-3) 19KO vs. #54 Adam Kownacki (20-1-0) 15KO

A rematch of the fight from March 2020 when Helenius handed Kownacki his first and only loss.

10 years ago Helenius was as high as #4 in our rankings but injuries and a long layoff pushed him lower, and a KO loss to Johann Duhaupas knocked him out of the top ten. Since then he's been up and down, beating Gonzale Basile and Evgeny Orlov but losing to Dillian Whyte in a wide decision. He topped Erkan Teper but fell to Gerald Washington in a 8th round KO. 

The win over Kownacki was Helenius' biggest win in nearly a decade. Kownacki was unbeaten in 20 outings and had 9 rated wins in our book and had just cracked the top ten before the loss. Currently down to #54 after going two years without a rated win, Kownacki would jump back into the top 20 if he can avenge his only loss.

#44 Viktor Faust (Vykhryst) (7-0-0) 5KO vs. #145 Mike Marshall (6-1-1) 4KO

Another undefeated fighter, Viktor Faust hopes to beat Mike Marshall and give himself a 2nd rated win. Faust (real name Viktor Vykhryst) beat Kamil Sokolowski last November. Marshall has never been in our top 100, having only a draw with Steve Vukosa on his résumé, along with a loss to Luther Smith.

#24 Jared Anderson (9-0-0) 9KOs vs. Vladimir Tereshkin (22-0-1) 12KO

Undefeated Jared Anderson battles also-undefeated Tereshkin, who was in our top 100 five years ago after beating Yuberty Diaz but didn't have another rated win among his three bouts since then. Anderson has 3 rated wins in the last 15 months, beating Johnny Langston, Rodney Hernandez, and Kingsley Ibeh.

We'll have round-by-round scoring for the headliner bout, probably for Ajagba vs. Sanchez and Helenius-Kownacki tomorrow starting roughly at 10pm eastern (the title fight should start somewhere between 11pm and 12 midnight eastern time, PPV on ESPN/FOX).

October is Light Heavyweight Month in MMA: Blachowicz-Teixeira, Nemkov-Anglickas, Bader-Anderson, & more

If you like the Light Heavyweight division in MMA then October is the month for you, with six of our top ten fighters active, and no less that four intra-top 25 bouts.

Two fights will determine who the Interim SportsRatings Light Heavyweight title holder is. The actual belt has been vacant for over six months since Jon Jones officially went inactive. Jones has threatened to move up to Heavyweight and recently has had legal problems (to say the least) so who knows when he will fight again. He continues to lose rating points but will rank #1 for at least the rest of 2021.

That leaves #2 Jan Blachowicz with the interim belt, which he will defend on October 30 against #5 Glover Teixeira. If he wins, he holds the belt, that part is simple. If Teixeira wins, then it depends on the results of #3 Vadim Nemkov vs. #13 Julius Anglickas on the 16th at Bellator. If Glover and Nemkov both win, Nemkov will be the interim title holder. Teixeira needs Anglickas to beat Nemkov.

Other big bouts include #4 Ryan Bader against #8 Corey Anderson, also on the 16th as Bellator; this, like Nemkov-Anglickas, is part of Bellator's Light Heavyweight tournament, and the winners will face each other in the Grand Prix final. Note that Anglickas is a replacement for Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson who pulled out of the tournament due to (non-Covid) illness.

And finally for the top ten, #6 Magomed Ankalaev fights #36 Volkan Oezdemir. Oezdemir is a lot better than our ranking suggests; his last win was over current #16 Aleksander Rakic almost two years ago, after which he lost to current #9 Jiri Prochazka. Ankalaev is 15-1, his sole loss to #11 Paul Craig in 2018 followed by a 6-fight win streak.

SportsRatings Light Heavyweight rankings - top 8

Sept Rank	Oct Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	September results; •October schedule
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	75.44	20-1-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Jan Blachowicz	LH	62.81	22-6-0	UFC	[interim LH title holder] •10/30 vs. #5 Glover Teixeira [to retain interim LH title]
3	3	Vadim Nemkov	LH	50.92	8-2-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #13 Julius Anglickas  [for interim LH title]?
4	4	Ryan Bader	LH	32.71	22-6-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #8 Corey Anderson
5	5	Glover Teixeira	LH	26.59	25-6-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #2 Jan Blachowicz  [for interim LH title]?
6	6	Magomed Ankalaev	LH	26.18	8-1-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #36 Volkan Oezdemir
9	7	Phil Davis	LH	22.43	19-6-0	Bell	Beat #25 Yoel Romero
7	8	Corey Anderson	LH	22.22	10-4-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #4 Ryan Bader

And that's not all. Outside the top ten there are several others active:

• #17 Da Un Jung battles #20 Kennedy Nzechukwu on the 16th in the UFC
• #19 Shamil Gamzatov fights #48 Michal Oleksiejczuk on the 30th, also in the UFC
• #24 Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov takes on #39 Karl Albrektsson in Bellator on the 16th

And we've already seen one results, as #62 Thiago Santos defeated #21 Johnny Walker by unanimous decision on October 2nd. Santos got his first win since February of 2019, and that dry spell coupled with three losses sent him to the nether zone in our ratings, but he'll be coming back up, probably just shy of the top 25 however. Santos overcome several injuries suffered during his loss to Jon Jones but looked much better against Walker than he did in losses to Teixeira and Rakic.

Ramifications

We've covered the belt situation: Blachowicz needs to win, Nemkov needs Blachowicz to lose, and Teixeira needs to win and have Nemkov to lose.

What's the best-case for Ryan Bader? He's too far behind at #4 to gain much ground with a win, so he'll only make a major advance if he wins the full tournament. If he beats Anderson and then Nemkov, he would be the interim title holder provided Glover Teixeira beats Blachowicz. Here's a look at the Bellator fighters' best possible ratings.

1) After the next round of fights, assuming a win:

• Nemkov 52.73
• Anglickas 40.88
• Bader 36.29
• Anderson 32.07

2) After the Grand Prix final, depending on their opponent in the final:

• Nemkov 58.64 / 57.40
• Bader 52.03 / 46.40
• Anderson 49.18 / 43.17
• Anglickas 48.27 / 46.75

Compare this to the values for Blachowicz or Teixeira after winning their fight:

• Blachowicz 65.56
• Glover 51.76

So you see, if Nemkov wins the Grand Prix he would overtake Teixeira regardless of opponent, and Bader would hold the interim belt over Teixeira if he beats Anderson and then Nemkov (but not if he faces Anglickas).

In all other cases, or if Blachowicz successfully defends his title, 2nd best (really, 3rd) is the best a Bellator fighter can do. 

When will Jones relinquish the top spot?

A long time, sadly. That's what happens when you dominate and go undefeated—you build up a huge point advantage. Jones would either have to lose or finally actually fight in another division to disappear from the top spot in the next year. That's right A YEAR before his points decay enough to fall to #2.

If Jan beats Glover and doesn't fight again, he wouldn't take over the #1 spot until the September 1st, 2022 ratings. Nemkov would have to wait until March of 2023. Bader and Glover's best shots wouldn't get them to #1 until August of 2023. Of course Nemkov, Bader, and Glover would have to fight before then or be considered inactive themselves.

And since Bones won't be fighting anywhere in the near future, it looks like we'll be discussing the Light Heavyweight interim belt well into next year, if not longer.

Usyk up to #2, takes interim SportsRatings title; Fury-Wilder fight for outright belt

Oleksandr Usyk outboxed Anthony Joshua on Saturday and even won the decision on all three cards. The idea that Joshua "couldn't lose" a decision was proved wrong. Money talks, but it doesn't jab, dodge, and bewilder the way Usyk did to Joshua in winning yesterday.

Usyk holds interim belt—for the next two weeks

Usyk jumps from #23 to #2 in our rankings, capturing Joshua's interim SportsRatings Heavyweight title, while idle fighters #1 Tyson Fury and #5 Deontay Wilder will battle for the third time on October 9th, and that one is a true title fight.

In other words, both men will be fighting for the title—the winner will be #1. If Joshua had defeated Usyk and then Wilder beat Fury, Wilder would only be #2. But with Joshua out of the way, if Wilder beats the odds and wins the trilogy fight he will finally be at the very top.

SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Rankings for September 26, 2021

-3 Yr	-1 Yr	-6 mo	Sept Rank	Oct Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	September results; •October schedule
2	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	49.20	18-0-1	--last rated win -19 months; •10/9 vs. #5 DEONTAY WILDER  [for HW title]
--	39	26	23	2	OLEKSANDR USYK	35.64	3-0-0	UD 12 #2 ANTHONY JOSHUA [new Interim HW champion]
1	2	2	2	3	ANTHONY JOSHUA	33.42	17-2-0	L UD 12 #23 OLEKSANDR USYK
6	9	4	3	4	DILLIAN WHYTE	26.35	14-2-0
3	3	3	4	5	DEONTAY WILDER	25.54	18-1-1	--last rated win -22 months; •10/9 vs. #1 TYSON FURY  [for HW title]

Of course if Fury wins he will still be #1, and he will no longer be inactive and thus will reclaim his title.

Remember all the people saying Fury was crazy for agreeing to fight Wilder again with the Joshua battle looming? Looks like maybe it was Joshua who was crazy not to wait.

Whyte Still Waiting in the Wings

And as usual lost in the shuffle among the title fighters is #4 Dillian Whyte, who earned a title shot about 100 years ago but has been delayed by the Fury-Wilder draw, the Joshua loss to Ruiz, the Ruiz-Joshua rematch, the Fury-Wilder rematch, losing to Povetkin, delay in rematch with Povetkin, the Fury-Wilder trilogy delay, and now once again the Joshua loss to Usyk and certain accompanying rematch. Maybe now he can get a fight with Fury soon? Unless Wilder wins, making the series 1-1-1 and necessitating yet another go-around...

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk live round-by-round scoring

#2 Anthony Joshua takes on #23 Oleksandr Usyk in London, England. Both fighters have beaten every man they've faced.

Joshua, 31, is 24-1 with an avenged loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. He is the SportsRatings interim heavyweight belt holder as #1 ranked Tyson Fury is currently considered inactive.

Usyk, 34, is undefeated at 18-0 with all but a few of those wins coming at Cruiserweight where he was the undisputed champion, unifying all the belts—a rarity today. He is only #23 as he has won only two fights at Heavyweight. He has wins over Chazz Witherspoon and Dereck Chisora.

With Usyk's movement and unorthodox style (including his southpaw stance), we see a fight that will be difficult to score and might cause controversy if it goes to a decision. It might most closely resemble Joshua's decision win over Joseph Parker. But predictions from the experts are all over the place; no one has solved Usyk yet, but he has a big size disadvantage and bears no resemblance to the one person able to beat Joshua so far.

The fight should begin on DAZN just after 5:00pm eastern time (USA). ETA is 5:15 as announcements are being made at 5:00pm.

Note: Having some trouble updating on Typepad, so round-by-round results might be slightly behind.

• Round One: Joshua comes to the middle fast, good left to the face from Usyk! Lots of jab-hand pawing as expected given the orthodox vs. southpaw matchup. Good right from Joshua at the midpoint. Good left from Usyk again, and 1-2 followup. Big whiff from Joshua misses by a hair. Usyk dancing all around Joshua who pivots in the center. Usyk jumps in with a left late in the round and probably wins the first round. Usyk 10-9.
• Round Two: Joshua trying to establish the jab now. Hectic pace but little contact overall. Usyk jabs with the right hand. Joshua putting jab out but Usyk's movement making it hard to connect. Usyk staying outside, lunging in, mostly not connecting though. Gets a left in. Good shot to the body by Joshua. Another left from Usyk. Close round, 10-10; Usyk 20-19.
• Round Three: Body shot from Usyk maybe connects. Decent right from Joshua, Usyk undeterred. This is going to be hard to score. Usyk connects with a couple of strong shots! Doesn't hurt joshua but scores. Frenetic pace continues. Body shot by Usyk, he dodges return shots. Joshua having trouble finding him. Joshua is leaving jabs short and haning, another good shot from Usyk, and another that hurts him! Joshua has good shot near the end but round definitely to Usyk 10-9; Usyk 30-28.
• Round Four: Joshua slips after punch connects early. Joshua having trouble getting used to Usyk's movement, another jab hits him. Usyk attacking from various angles, mostly missing but confusing Joshua. Jab/hook connects for Usyk. Joshua connects with perhaps his best punch, and first clinch of the fight initiated by Joshua. Body shot from Usyk. Joshua jab gets 2 from Usyk in return. Close round, AJ did better but didn't really win it. 10-10; Usyk 40-38.
• Round Five: Uppercut from Usyk. Fighters slowing movement a bit, and more shots are connecting though with little effect. Big swing an miss from Joshua. AJ's jabs are looking better, but Usyk connects with a left. Left cross misses though. Good body shot from Joshua. Usyk connects right on the chin, AJ returns fire. Fighters trading glancing jabs, now swinging wildly from both men to end the round! Both fought well and we punt again. 10-10. Usyk 50-48.
• Round Six: The cards are going to be all over, we predict. Usyk defending more early in the round as Joshua jabs. Is he slowing down? Delivers a jab with less activity. Joshua making him miss a bit more. Both fighters missing a lot but then on cue both of them connect. Joshua connects with extended jab. Joshua probably wins that one, his first clear round. Joshua 10-9; Usyk 59-58
• Round Seven: Usyk jab the first big moment in round 7. Good right too. Another jab from Usyk, it seems he took the last round off to rest and is re-energized. Jab and left cross from Usyk. Another jab and two swings, one connects with the left. BIG left knocks AJ back several steps as he almost trips. Usyk unloading with several connections. Big round for Usyk, clearest round yet 10-9. Usyk 10-9, 69-67.
• Round Eight: Not much happens in first minute. Big body punch from AJ. Jab from Usyk. Joshua trying to establish ring dominance now with body shots. Usyk swings wild and misses in combination. Another body shot from AJ, and another. Joshua narrowly takes that one. Joshua 10-9; Usyk 78-77.
• Round Nine: First referee warning for...something. Fighters jabbing at range, AJ whiffs on big shot. Usyk rushes in for body shot, Joshua ties up for only 2nd time in fight. No one is connecting much at all as they're both at range. Joshua holds back of Usyk's neck, they break. Usyk lookng a bit tired but delivers a good left. Another too-close round that many will score either way. 10-10; Usyk 88-87.
• Round Ten: Did Usyk rest up last round? He's pretty active coming into the 10th. Joshua looks pretty fresh too. Usyk with big left, both look strong right now. Both jabbing with confidence in home stretch rounds. Left hand from Usyk scores. Jab from Usyk, right hand from Joshua. Close round halfway through. Big cut under Usyk's eye, fighters clinch and rest a bit. RIght hand from AJ, he sees blood, literally. Ref separeates them. Three strong shots from Usyk though. Both fighters eyes are hurt, another close round, we punt yet again. 10-10; Usyk 98-97.
• Round Eleven: These last two rounds will decide it. Usyk full of energy early, big shot from Usyk, Joshua undeterred, he's got energy too and returns fire. Both have slowed down by the end of the first minute. AJ coming on now as Usyk dodges. AJ is jabbing well now. Lots of movement and little connection until Usyk gets in a right with a minute left. Misses on several swinging lefts and rights. Joshua standing still a bit too much now. Joshua started well but Usyk finished a lot better. Usyk 10-9, 108-106.
• Round Twelve: Usyk going crazy coming at AJ. Fight could go either way as we have five 10-10 rounds but on our card AJ needs a knockdown to get a draw even. Both are connecting, first Usyk and now Joshua a bit more. Usyk backing Joshua up halfway thru round. And again. AJ needs a big shot, needs to take some chances which he's not doing. Gets in a a good right though, and another one. Great jab by Usyk. Usyk slowing down a bit but turns it back on. Swinging like mad at the end, has AJ on the ropes at the finish! Usyk clearly wins the round, and probably the fight. 10-9, Usyk 118-115.

If we split our 10-10 rounds that translates to 116-112 or 115-113 for Usyk. Making three "extreme" cards we have Usyk 118-110, Usyk 115.5-112.5, and Joshua 115-113 on a split decision.

Waiting for the decision.

Decision: 117-112, 116-112, 115-113 all for Usyk. Oleksandr Usyk remains undefeated and takes Joshua's belts. He will jump to #2 on our rankings, and becomes our interim Heavyweight Champion—pending results of Fury-Wilder III. Amazing.

Our 3-round margin was close to the 3.7 average margin of the judges. The 117-112 score probably included a 10-10 round adding an extra point. It went about as we expected in terms of being difficult to judge, but the result went to Usyk and unlike we thought, it seems unlikely to be a controversial result as Usyk came on strong in the final rounds to secure the win.

It looks like we have a 3rd man in the mix for best heavyweight in the world, and for the moment, it's between Usyk and Fury.

Map: Birthplaces of the current top 100 p4p MMA fighters

Reddit user animbicile created a world map of the birthplaces of the top 100 MMA fighters, using our current (April) p4p top 100.

 

 

Pretty cool stuff! See the map, and the requisite shaming of our rankings in the original reddit post.

Khabib Nurmagomedov hits #1 P4P...5 months after retirement

When Francis Ngannou beat Stipe Miocic the other night, he took over the #1 spot on our Heavyweight rankings but only jumped to #3 on our pound-for-pound rankings. There, Miocic fell to #5 while jumping from #2 to #1 was...Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Mar 2021	Apr 2021	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	March 2021 results
2	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	91.59	15-0-0	UFC
3	2	Kamaru Usman	WW	89.02	13-0-0	UFC
10	3	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.73	10-2-0	UFC	Beat #1 Stipe Miocic
4	4	Jon Jones	LH	80.75	20-1-0	UFC	--last rated win -13 months.
1	5	Stipe Miocic	HW	69.01	15-4-0	UFC	Lost to #10 Francis Ngannou

Khabib (as we will reference him from here forth) is still our Lightweight champ despite retiring about 5 months ago following his win over Justin Gaethje. But we don't de-list fighters for retiring. Too many fighters "unretire" or make comebacks, so it's best to just let time degrade their ranking and after 5 years, go to zero.

Besides, we don't feel like keeping a history of every fighter's retirement pronouncements. Currently there are two retired fighters that hold SportsRatings MMA belts, Khabib at Lightweight and Henry Cejudo at Bantamweight. When a fighter hasn't fought in a full year he becomes "inactive" and doesn't hold the belt anymore, regardless of whether he's still at #1 in his division. Jon Jones is inactive at Light Heavyweight (where #2 Jan Blachowicz is interim champ) and Demetrious Johnson is inactive at Flyweight (Deiveson Figueiredo is interim Flyweight champ). 

Khabib won't relinquish the Lightweight belt until October 25 of this year, while Cejudo will be Bantamweight champ until May 10th. 

What this means is that Khabib can still be our P4P champion until November 1st. Someone could pass him, since he won't be earning any more points. #2 Kamaru Usman will probably get really close if he beats Jorge Masvidal on April 24th, but it won't quite be enough.

There haven't been many "chart-toppers" in the history of our P4P list. Going all the way back to the first UFC, there have only been 18 different people who have been #1 outright (while active):

Start   Fighter                 Rating     Reign
11/1993	Royce Gracie		20.46	13 months
12/1994	Ken Shamrock		36.21	17 months
05/1996	Dan Severn		40.73	 9 months
02/1997	Mark Coleman		38.71	 5 months
07/1997	Maurice Smith		31.86	 1 month
08/1997	Igor Vovchanchyn	32.56	 1 month
09/1997	Johil de Oliveira	32.77	 2 months
11/1997	Igor Vovchanchyn	37.41	 1 month 
12/1997	Masakatsu Funaki	38.03	 2 months
02/1998	Igor Vovchanchyn	39.21	24 months (26 months total)
02/2000	Dan Henderson		58.01	10 months
12/2000	Wanderlei Silva		49.29	 2 months
02/2001	Antonio Rod. Nogueira   55.53	25 months
03/2003 Fedor Emelianenko	68.30	41 months
10/2006	Fedor Emelianenko      102.20	21 months 
07/2008	Fedor Emelianenko      106.14	23 months (85 months total)
06/2010	Georges St. Pierre	87.18	28 months
10/2012	Anderson Silva		92.78	 1 month
11/2012	Georges St. Pierre	97.77	24 months (52 months total)
01/2015	Jon Jones	       104.70	12 months
04/2016	Jon Jones	       100.76	12 months (24 months total)
06/2018	Stipe Miocic		84.40	 1 month
07/2018	Daniel Cormier		92.00	13 months 
08/2019	Stipe Miocic		87.65	19 months (20 months total)
03/2021	Khabib Nurmagomedov	91.59	 1 month

In addition, 7 fighters held the "active p4p" title while the #1 fighter was inactive:

• Chuck Liddell (08/2006 for 2 months)
• Quinton Jackson (04/2008 for 3 months)
• Anderson Silva (04/2012 for 6 months)
• Jon Jones (11/2014 for 2 months)
• Fabricio Werdum (01/2016 for 3 months)
• Conor McGregor (04/2017 for 1 month)
• Stipe Miocic (05/2017 for 13 months)

Khabib will likely be #1 from end of March through end of September, corresponding to monthly ratings for April to  October, not a bad 7-month reign for a retired fighter. Usman is poised to take over after that, unless Ngannou and Jones fight this summer, which is not looking likely.

MMA: Who will be on top at the END of 2021? Analysis for all weight classes

We're just getting into 2021 and the top players in each weight class are pretty well known. But a number of changes are coming, both from top dogs switching weight classes or retiring, to the inevitable upsets and changing of the guard. Here we look ahead to January 1, 2022, and project who will be on top in each weight class in our rankings.

For each weight class we'll look at our current top five and their most likely upcoming fights, then project the three fighters most likely to occupy the top spot a year from now. We'll throw in a long-shot/wild-card candidate too: either someone who is good enough to be a title holder but probably won't get a chance to prove it, or a fighter who is getting a shot but the odds are against them. Or just someone who might shake things up.

Heavyweight - over 205 lbs.

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Stipe Miocic	HW	97.61	15-3-0	UFC	#2 Francis Ngannou
2	2	Francis Ngannou	HW	50.86	9-2-0	UFC	#1 Stipe Miocic
3	3	Daniel Cormier	HW	40.66	18-3-0	UFC	--retired
4	4	Curtis Blaydes	HW	38.44	10-2-0	UFC	•2/20 vs. #5 Derrick Lewis
5	5	Derrick Lewis	HW	27.88	13-5-0	UFC	•2/20 vs. #4 Curtis Blaydes

Current top rated HW: Stipe Miocic
Current HW champion: Stipe Miocic (active thru August 15, 2021)
Possible HW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: With Daniel Cormier retired the heavyweight division is a 2-man show right now, and the Miocic/Ngannou rematch will determine who reigns in 2021. But with Jon Jones entering the picture everything is up in the air. Assuming the top two fight first, with Jones meeting the winner, Jones is in the best situation to claim the belt. In other words, Jones just has to beat Miocic or Ngannou; Miocic and Ngannou have to beat the other contender AND Jones to be on top in 2022. Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis fight each other for the #4 spot, which is where they'll end up.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Ciryl Gane. If Jones doesn't fight for the belt in 2021, Derrick Lewis could get the call, but he's already in the top 5 so we're going with Gane (currently #18) as our long-shot; he's matched next with #10 Jairzinho Rozenstruik on March 13.

Light Heavyweight - 205 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	82.47	20-1-0	UFC	•remains champion until Feb. 9 •transitioning to HW
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	46.34	7-2-0	Bell	#4 Ryan Bader/#5 Phil Davis
3	3	Jan Blachowicz	LH	38.13	21-6-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #1 MW Israel Adesanya
4	4	Ryan Bader	LH	33.22	21-6-0	Bell	(?) #2 Vadim Nemkov
5	5	Phil Davis	LH	29.25	17-5-0	Bell	(?) #2 Vadim Nemkov

Current top rated LH: Jon Jones
Current LH champion: Jon Jones (active thru Feb. 8, 2021)
Possible LH champs for Jan 2022: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira

Analysis: This division is wide open. The only thing we know for sure is that on Febuary 9th, Jon Jones becomes "inactive" and cedes the LH belt; Vadim Nemkov will then become interim champion. Other than that, it's up in the air. Will Jon Jones move to heavyweight? Will #1 middleweight Israel Adesanya fight at Light Heavyweight? The latter looks pretty certain for March, and the Izzy vs. Jan Blachowicz winner would become our outright champ the moment Jones makes the leap to HW. We favor Izzy but can't count out another Blachowicz miracle. Since #6 Glover Teixeira is considered an unofficial backup for the fight, and/or could face the winner, we put him #3. Bellator's LH division is solid, especially with the addition of Rumble Johnson and Yoel Romero, but no one will have the points to be on top as long as Izzy enters the fray at LH some time this year.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Jiri Prochazka. Anyone from Bellator could be here, but as noted the numbers are against them with Izzy in the mix. Instead we go with Prochazka, the latest hyped-up youngster (remember Johnny Walker?). Currently #10, Prochazka will have to prove he's the real deal against Dominick Reyes; a win there might propel him to a title shot before 2021 is over.

Middleweight - 185 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Israel Adesanya	MW	70.74	8-0-0	UFC	• transitioning to LH •3/06 vs. #3 LH Jan Blachowicz
2	2	Robert Whittaker	MW	53.77	14-5-0	UFC	#8 Marvin Vittori/#9 Paulo Costa
4	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	49.81	38-7-2	Bell	#11 John Salter
3	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	49.48	24-2-0	UFC	--retired
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	40.16	7-0-0	Bell	--retired (medical)

Current top rated MW: Israel Adesanya
Current MW champ: Israel Adesanya (active thru Sept. 26, 2021)
Possible MW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya

Analysis: This division is even more screwed up than Light Heavyweight. Israel Adesanya is moving up and he's already defeated #2 Robert Whittaker and other top candidates like #7 Derek Brunson and #9 Paulo Costa. Gegard Mousasi is tops in Bellator but he's out of top-tier opponents having vanquished #6 Douglas Lima while #5 Rafael Lovato Jr. is retired due to a worrisome brain condition. And if #4 Georges St. Pierre ever comes back it won't be at Middleweight. So our reasoning is this: Whittaker is guaranteed to be our title holder after March 6; he will probably defend against one of the other UFC contenders; if he loses, Mousasi moves into the top spot; and Izzy might decide to come back and defend the title, win or lose against Blachowicz. We only rank fighters at one weight class so if he stays at LH he won't be in the mix, but the rest is too hard to figure out.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Khamzat Chimaev. His next fight is at Welterweight so he's more likely to park there but with this division wide open, why not?

Welterweight - 170 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	83.00	12-0-0	UFC	•2/13 vs. #2 Gilbert Burns
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	45.00	12-3-0	UFC	•2/13 vs. #1 Kamaru Usman
3	3	Colby Covington	WW	42.10	10-2-0	UFC	#5 Jorge Masvidal
4	4	Leon Edwards	WW	36.03	12-2-0	UFC	•3/13 vs. #35 Khamzat Chimaev
5	5	Jorge Masvidal	WW	30.34	33-14-0	UFC	#3 Colby Covington

Current top rated WW: Kamaru Usman
Current WW champ: Kamaru Usman (active through July 11, 2021)
Possible WW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns

Analysis: It's not that we're totally buying into the Khamzat Chimaev hype that we put him at #2—we just don't see any other challengers for Kamaru Usman on the horizon. He's defeated most of the rest of the top five; only Gilbert Burns still hasn't had his shot, so we put him at #3. But consider Leon Edwards' situation. Even beating Chimaev won't make him more likely to beat Usman in a rematch, and would either Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal improve on their losing efforts? Chimaev is only #35 in our rankings but a win over Edwards would move him into UFC title contention in short order, and at least we haven't seen that one played out yet. Let's face it, Usman's style isn't pretty but he does what he has to do to win, and as long as he stays at Welterweight he looks like the champ, making him the first one we project to still be on top come 2022.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Sean Brady. Given that we have Khamzat up at #2 it's hard to pick a big enough long shot, so we'll go really long with Brady, undefeated but unproven at #25. He's well-rounded and gets mostly decision wins; maybe that's what's needed to beat Usman's methodical style? He'd need to be a replacement fighter a couple of times to even get the chance though.

Lightweight - 155 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	91.53	15-0-0	UFC	• retired • remains champion until Oct. 25
2	2	Dustin Poirier	LW	49.62	21-6-0	UFC	•1/23 vs. #5 Conor McGregor
7	3	Charles Oliveira	LW	43.70	21-8-0	UFC	(?) #4 Justin Gaethje
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.19	16-3-0	UFC	(?) #3 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Conor McGregor	LW	38.28	14-2-0	UFC	•1/23 vs. #2 Dustin Poirier

Current top rated LW: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Current LW champ: Khabib Nurmagomedov (thru Oct. 24, 2021)
Possible (interim) LW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier

Analysis: Another case where the current champ won't be champ at the end of the year. Khabib Nurmagomedov is retired but still holds our LW title; he'll be our #1 ranked Lightweight for years and will be considered Champion until late October. At that point the 2nd-ranked fighter will be our interim champ, and that will most likely be current #5 Conor McGregor. We don't doubt #2 Dustin Poirier can beat him, but if he does, he'll defend his interim UFC title later in the year and might lose to #3 Charles Oliveira, who might have to get past #4 Justin Gaethje first anyway. So you see how McGregor's odds are the most favorable—it's easier to win one fight than two. If McGregor beats Poirier, we see him being awarded the outright UFC belt and sitting on it for the rest of the year while the UFC tries in vain to get Nurmagomedov back for a rematch. And McGregor will probably box one of the Paul brothers instead.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Georges St. Pierre. Now there's a wild card. If they can't get Khabib back, maybe they can get GSP to face Conor?

Featherweight - 145 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	58.99	14-0-0	UFC	#8 Brian Ortega
2	2	Patricio Freire	FW	49.09	18-4-0	Bell	#11 Emmanuel Sanchez
3	3	Lance Palmer	FW	36.35	18-3-0	Prof	(?)
4	4	A.J. McKee	FW	31.07	11-0-0	Bell	#2 Patricio Freire/#11 Sanchez
5	5	Zabit Magomedsharipov	FW	29.28	9-0-0	UFC	(?) #36 Yair Rodriguez

Current top rated FW: Alexander Volkanovski
Current FW champ: Alexander Volkanovski (thru July 11, 2021)
Possible FW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire
Analysis: This one's complicated, too. Both UFC and Bellator big names are all in the mix. Let's eliminate #3 Lance Palmer, since he doesn't have much of anyone to fight in PFL when they finally reboot. In Bellator Patricio Freire will very likely be the opponent for AJ McKee in the FW Grand Prix finals, where McKee has a good chance of winning. But McKee won't have enough points to be ahead of every UFC fighter even with that win, so Freire gets our nod as most likely champ from Bellator regardless. The UFC probably holds on to the crown, either with Alexander Volkanovski or Zabit Magomedsharipov. We see Volk beating #8 Brian Ortega (has he really improved enough to beat the guy that beat Max Holloway twice?) and then Zabit coming back from inactivity to take the title. 

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Emmanuel Sanchez. No one expects Sanchez to upset Freire to make the Bellator Grand Prix finals, but he avenged his loss to Daniel Weichel in the quarterfinals, and a win over McKee in the finals would put him...probably not at #1, lots of other upsets would have to happen in the UFC. That's why he's a long-shot.

Bantamweight - 135 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	58.28	10-2-0	UFC	• retired • remains champion until May 10
2	2	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	47.76	21-2-0	One	#15 John Lineker
5	3	Kyoji Horiguchi	BW	40.38	27-3-0	Rizi	(?)
3	4	Aljamain Sterling	BW	39.73	13-3-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #5 Petr Yan
6	5	Petr Yan	BW	28.15	9-0-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #4 Aljamain Sterling

Current top rated BW: Henry Cejudo
Current BW champ: Henry Cejudo (thru May 9, 2021)
Possible BW interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo

Analysis: Petr Yan is UFC champ but only #5 in our rankings, one spot behind next opponent Aljamain Sterling. We expect Sterling to win that matchup, then beat the winner of Corey Sandhagen / Frankie Edgar and become the interim champ by the end of the year. If Sterling loses along the way, One Championship's Bibiano Fernandez might become interim champ; Fernandez has been at or near the top of our BW rankings for years. The wild card here is current (though retired) champ Henry Cejudo, who has been hinting at a comeback. He would probably fight at 135 and with his high rating any win would re-activate him as champ, and especially if it's a one-off fight Cejudo would remain champ until 2022.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: TJ Dillashaw. Dillashaw is the dictionary definition of a wildcard. Currently ranked as a Flyweight (since he fought there last) Dillashaw is returning from two-year suspension for EPO use. What fights will he get, and how will he do? No one knows, but some think he'll get a high-ranked opponent immediately.

Flyweight - 125 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Demetrious Johnson	FL	39.27	21-3-1	One	[ inactive -14 months] •2/24 vs. #19 Adriano Moraes
2	2	Deiveson Figueiredo	FL	31.31	10-1-1	UFC	[interim FL champ] #4 Brandon Moreno
3	3	Manel Kape	FL	28.67	6-3-0	UFC	•2/06 vs. #35 Alexandre Pantoja
7	4	Brandon Moreno	FL	25.65	7-2-2	UFC	#2 Deiveson Figueiredo
4	5	T.J. Dillashaw	FL	25.53	11-3-0	UFC	(?) probably at BW

Current top rated FL: Demetrious Johnson
Current FL interim champ: Deiveson Figueiredo (thru Dec 12, 2021)
Possible FL interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno

Analysis: Straight down the line, that's how we see the Flyweight division. Demetrious Johnson is inactive so he's not the champ, but we expect him to recover his title in February. If Mighty Mouse should falter then Deiveson Figueiredo can capture the outright crown for the first time by beating #4 Brandon Moreno in their rematch, which shouldn't be as close as the first fight. No one else, though, has as much of a chance to upset Figueiredo as Moreno, so we put him #3. Manel Kape is making his UFC debut and those rarely go well, and #5 TJ Dillashaw is not going to fight at Flyweight.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Adriano Moraes. Might as well make it someone who has a shot. Should Moraes upset Mighty Mouse he will probably have to defend at least once, if not give DJ a rematch, so even if he wins it's unlikely he'll hold the title come 2022. But there's a chance.