SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

UFC 300: How will fights impact the rankings?

UFC 300 features 6 fights that will impact our Weight Class Top 25 lists

• #13 BW Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt (BW #160)
  
  Cody Garbrandt has fallen far since holding the UFC belt, losing 5 of 6 in a five-year span before rebounding with a couple wins that didn't move him up much. But beating Figueiredo could help him regain a lot of ground. Figueiredo is making his Bantamweight debut and starts at #13. A win for Figueiredo would likely put him just inside in the top 10; Cody won't get in the top 25 if he wins but it would knock Figueiredo down leaving both fighters just outside the rankings.
  
  Result: Deiveson Figueiredo def. Cody Garbrandt by rear naked choke R2
  
  Deiveson Figueiredo will likely move to #9 in our Bantamweight rankings. Garbrandt will remain unranked.
  
  
• #3 BW Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar (FW #117)
  
  This is the weirdest fight in terms of our rankings. Former Bantamweight champion Sterling would be #1 if ranked at Featherweight right now, and this will be his qualifying fight. So if he wins—even though Kattar is only #117—he will have our FW belt! Seems a bit unfair, but that's what the points say. Sterling won 9 fights in a row prior to his loss to Sean O'Malley, amassing tons of point; meanwhile the top Featherweight Alexander Volkanovski lost twice to Islam Makhachev and then to Ilia Topuria, leaving the Featherweight rankings depleted at the very top. Aljo will be ranked as a Featherweight after his first FW fight is completed, so unless it's a No Contest he'll be somewhere at or near the top. 
  
  Kattar has fallen out of the top 100 at Featherweight (there are a lot of FW fighters!) due to losing 3 of his last 4 fights, as well as not winning a fight in over two years. He's much better than #117 of course, but in our rankings you have to prove it by winning fights. Beating Sterling would immediately put Kattar back in the top 10, probably around #5 at Featherweight.
  
  Result: Aljamain Sterling def Calvin Katter by UD
  
  Well there you, Aljo is our FW champ like it or not, and in a pretty boring way. He won't be that far ahead of Topuria, so the title might switch hands after Topuria's next fight.
  
  
• #6 LH Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic (LH #44)
  
  Ex-Light Heavyweight king Jiri Prochazka hopes to move into position to regain his title. If he beats Aleksandar Rakic he will get his first win in almost 2 years, and stop bleeding points. But it won't get him in the top five unless Jamahall Hill loses in the main event. Rakic has a lot more to gain, with a win putting him in the top 10.
  
  Result: Jiri Prochazka TKO Aleksandar Rakic R2
  
  Crazy fight, Jiri prevails and he'll be either #5 or stay at #6, either way he's back in the W column.
  
  
• #3 LW Charles Oliveira vs. #9 LW Arman Tsarukyan 
  
  A huge fight at Lightweight. Oliveira can move up to #2, and Tsarykyan can jump all the way to #3. The loser suffers a setback but will remain solidly in the top 25.
  
  Result: Arman Tsarukyan SD Charles Oliveira
  
  Tsarukyan wins a hard-fought decision, and he will be #3 in the May rankings. Oliveira will drop to around #6.
  
  
• #4 LW Justin Gaethje vs. #10 LW Max Holloway  
  
  Another huge fight at Lightweight. Gaethje can only advance one spot, and that's only if Charles Oliveira loses his fight. But he'll remain in line for a title fight. Max Holloway is moving up to Lightweight (for good, he says) and is already in the top 10; a win puts him at #5 or #6 depending on what happens in the other big LW fight.
  
  Result: Max Holloway KO 5 Justin Gaethje
  
  Amazing fight, amazing finish with 2 seconds to go. Apparently Holloway might want Topuria at FW, but he'll be near the top 5 in our LW rankings.
  
  
• #1 LH Alex Pereira vs. #3 LH Jamahal Hill  
  
  This is the only pure title fight of the night, where the winner is #1. Pereira can retain his title and put ore distance between himself and #2 Magomed Ankalaev. Hill can jump both of them and get our #1 ranking for the first time.
  
  Result: Alex Pereira KO 1 Jamahal Hill
  
  Pereira retains the #1 ranking and belt; Hill will drop to around #7

Movlid Khaybulaev (PFL) enjoys 3-week reign as #1 Featherweight

Long live the King, the King will soon...be relegated to the #2 (or #3) spot.

Movlid Khaybulaev recently took over the top spot in the Featherweight rankings, but he won't be there for long. The winner of Saturday's match between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez will be the new champion, as Volkanovski returns from Lightweight where he ranks #3.

How did he end up on top? Just a few months ago Khaybulaev was a very distant #3 in the division.

Featherweight - 145 lb. limit - rankings for February, 2023

Jan 2023	Feb 2023	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	January results; •February schedule
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	65.12	15-0-0	UFC	•2/11 vs. #1 LW Islam Makhachev [for LW title]
2	2	Patricio Freire	FW	54.64	22-5-0	Bell
3	3	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	31.39	8-0-1	PFL	--last rated win -15 months.

 

But later that month, Volkanovski fought at Lightweight against Islam Makhachev. Because SportsRatings only ranks fighters in one weight class, that meant former #2 Patricio Freire moved into the top slot at Featherweight. And last month, when Freire fought at Bantamweight against Sergio Pettis, Khaybulaev inherited the crown in our July rankings, becoming the first PFL fighter to hold a divisional title in our rankings.

Featherweight - 145 lb. limit - rankings for July, 2023

June Rank	July Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	June results; •July schedule
2	1	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	31.40	10-0-1	PFL	Beat #185 Tyler Diamond [new FW champion]
6	2	Ilia Topuria	FW	30.50	9-0-0	UFC	Beat #10 Josh Emmett
3	3	Movsar Evloev	FW	30.16	12-0-0	UFC

Khaybulaev didn't have to do much in order to secure the top spot once the others were gone—he just had to not lose to two competitors who are outside the top 100 in the Featherweight division, Ryoji Kudo in April and Tyler Diamond in June.

This shows the advantages and disadvantages of being in an organization other than the UFC. The risks aren't as great but neither are the rewards. Khaybulaev had little chance of losing against these opponents, but gained almost nothing, and only the odd circumstances of two key fighters bailing the division put him at the top—and then, only just barely. #2 Ilia Topuria came within a hair's breadth of landing at the #1 spot, with another UFC fighter Movsar Evloev just behind.

In fact, it took another unusual occurrence—the PED suspension of Daniel Pineda—or Khaybulaev wouldn't have seen the top spot. In 2019, Movlid was stopped in less than a minute by a barrage of punches from Pineda. The stoppage was controversial for being a bit quick, and in the end it was declared a No Contest after Pineda's testosterone levels tested too high. This also meant that Khaybulaev's only loss was wiped from his record.

Without that change, Khaybulaev would now rank #3 behind Topuria and Evloev. That's how hard it is to get to #1 in an organization outside the UFC. It's a bit more likely in Bellator, which in addition to Freire's short reign at Featherweight currently boasts Vadim Nemkov as Light Heavyweight champ. In both those cases, though, key fighters (Volkanovski and Jon Jones) left the weight class to allow the Bellator fighter to slip into the top spot. 

Alas, Khaybulaev is not likely to hold the top spot much longer. On July 8, Volkanovski returns to the Featherweight divsion, fighting #6 Featherweight Yair Rodriguez. Whoever wins that fight will take over the top spot, bumping Movlid to #2 (or to #3 if Yair is the winner, with Volkanovski settling at #2).

Movlid's prospects for recapturing the crown are poor as well. His next fight against Gabriel Braga (unranked in the FW top 100) won't help much; if he wins he'll face the winner of #12 Bubba Jenkins and #13 Jesus Pinedo, a result that will gain him solid points but not enough to be #1 again. Probably the only way he can hold onto the top spot is for the Volk-Yair fight to end in a No Contest, or be called off in the next few days. 

That doesn't seem likely, but his route to the top was pretty unconventional. Maybe lightning will strike twice? If not, Khaybulaev will have to be content with a chance at winning PFL's $1 million tournament prize, a feat he accomplished in 2021.

Predictions for Year-end 2022 (and review of 2021 picks)

One year ago we issued predictions for who would hold the SportsRatings belts in every MMA weight class at the end of the year. Well we've reached the end of the year and our picks were...mixed. Not bad, but mixed.

Interestingly we see that some sportsbooks are now offering odds for year-end UFC belt-holders. Where did they get that idea? Hmm. (I really have no idea, they might have done this before, but without knowing for sure, I'm taking credit for inspiring them)

Anyway here we go again, this time reviewing and grading our picks from a year ago before issuing new picks for the end-of-year.

Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic  WC: #18 Ciryl Gane

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.22	10-2-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #3 Ciryl Gane
2	2	Stipe Miocic	HW	65.10	15-4-0	UFC	#6 Derrick Lewis?
3	3	Ciryl Gane	HW	40.11	8-0-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #1 Francis Ngannou
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	32.85	18-3-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Philip De Fries	HW	30.91	13-6-0	KSW	?

Last Year's Grade: B+

Ok, so Jon Jones didn't happen but our logic was sound: he would only need to win once to get the title, as opposed to Ngannou or Miocic who would need to beat Jones after cementing the title. Instead, Ngannou got the run-around and Stipe was inactive and Jones never fought. But we had the right idea and picked Francis to win the first fight. And our long-shot pick for Gane came as close as it could...he even garnered an interim UFC title.

This year's picks: Possible HW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Francis Ngannou  2) Ciryl Gane  3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: We're not one of those who think Gane is a shoo-in despite our strong support for him last year. And if he beats Ngannou, he'll probably fight twice more this year while if Francis wins, there's a chance he won't fight again, which would mean he holds the SportsRatings belt the rest of 2022. So it's as much math as anything else in what seems like a 50/50 fight: if Francis wins he's champ for 2022, if Gane wins he will defend twice more...probably against Stipe for one. There's really no one else active that has a good shot at the top. Hell, Philip De Fries is #5, fighting in the HW wasteland at KSW.

Long-shot/wild card: Jon Jones. We think he counts here now, a full year after not showing up anywhere. Who knows if he ever fights again, let alone at heavyweight? We think he'll be back and that probably means he'll fight at HW, so he can't be counted out. But he's a long shot this time around.

Vegas thinks: Ngannou, Gane, Jones. So they clearly put more stock in Jones showing up that I do, and kind of counting out Stipe, too.

Light Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira  WC: #10 Jiri Pochazka

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	72.62	20-1-0	UFC	Heavyweight?
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	52.68	9-2-0	Bell	[Interim LH title holder] #5 Corey Anderson
3	3	Glover Teixeira	LH	51.76	26-6-0	UFC	#9 Jiri Prochazka
4	4	Jan Blachowicz	LH	44.43	22-7-0	UFC	#15 Alexander Rakic
5	5	Corey Anderson	LH	32.06	11-4-0	Bell	#2 Vadim Nemkov

Last Year's Grade: C+

Izzy didn't come through for us and Jan fell by the wayside, but putting Glover #3 sort of redeems us as we were among the few who believed he might have a chance. But even in terms of our own ratings he didn't finish with the interim belt: that stayed with Vadim Nemkov who held it at the end of last year! We didn't think there was any way the Bellator fighter would have enough points to stay ahead of all the possibilities from the UFC, but he did as the perfect storm hit.

This year's picks: Possible LH champs for Jan 2023: 1) Vadim Nemkov 2) Magomed Akalaev 3) Jiri Prochazka 

Analysis: This time we're sticking with Vadim...which means he probably gets upset by Corey Anderson. Even if that happens, Anderson is unlikely to stay on top points-wise, but Nemkov could with a win. We also think that the boring, relentless Ankalaev has more chance of going undefeated in 2023 than the flashy, reckless, fun-to-watch Prochazka but the latter can't be counted out. Glover probably loses before the year's out, and Jan probably doesn't work his way back to the top.

Long-shot/wild card: Paul Craig. No one's paying much attention to "BearJew" right now but he's the kind that could have a surprise run to the top like Jan Blachowicz. Currently #12 in our rankings.

Vegas thinks: Prochazka, Teixeira, Rakic. Our last year's wild card is this year's Vegas fave, but Glover's not far behind. Interesting.

Middleweight

Last year's picks: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya   WC: Khamzat Chimaev

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Robert Whittaker	MW	54.79	15-5-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
2	2	Israel Adesanya	MW	53.63	11-1-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #1 Robert Whittaker
3	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	52.39	39-7-2	Bell	•2/25 #32 Austin Vanderford
4	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	34.21	24-2-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	34.06	7-0-0	Bell	[retired]

Last Year's Grade: A-

Well...what can we say? We got it just about right, with help from statistical fluke that puts Whittaker ahead of Adesanya. Though Izzy beat Whittaker in 2020 he lost his light heavyweight title try and the win over Vettori wasn't quite enough to outpace Whittaker's three wins in a row. Ideally Whittaker would be just behind Izzy but we got the pick right...technically.

This year's picks: Possible MW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Robert Whittaker  3) Gegard Mousasi

Analysis: This is another division—like heavyweight—where there is a clear top three (#4 and #5 are long retired). And Adesanya beat Whittaker convincingly last time and should do it again. Mousasi can stay within striking distance but that's probably it as his Bellator division is depleted.

Long-shot/wild card: If it's anyone else he's going to have to come from the UFC. We're going with erstwhile journeyman Chris Curtis, who has made more progress in the last two months than anyone. Possessing a journeyman's 28-8 record Curtis has come out of nowhere with upsets of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen.

Vegas thinks: Adesanya, Whittaker, Brunson. Same as us except Brunson; remember, they're limited to UFC fighters.

Welterweight

Last year's picks: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns  WC: #25 Sean Brady

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	96.04	15-0-0	UFC	#3 Leon Edwards/ #4 Vicente Luque
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	37.17	13-4-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?
3	3	Leon Edwards	WW	35.67	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
4	4	Vicente Luque	WW	31.98	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
7	5	Belal Muhammad	WW	31.46	15-3-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?

Grade: A

We can't really fault ourselves for putting Khamzat #2, after all it was Covid that delayed his entry into the WW sweepstakes and he still made a lot of progress, up to #11 in our rankings after fighting once last year. And Usman on top was a solid if obvious pick. Burns finished next highest, too. And our Wild Card Sean Brady made a name for himself jumping from #25 to #9. That pick was more impressive than calling on Khamzat like everone else; Brady wasn't on many radars at this time last year.

This year's picks: Possible WW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Kamaru Usman  2) Khamzat Chimaev  3) Leon Edwards

Analysis: Pretty much an exact replay. But not much has changed: Usman is still the best fighter in the world, and Chimaev is still the fighter with the most upward potential. No one is beating Usman of the current suspects. Leon Edwards is most likely, probably, to finally get another crack next.

Long-shot/wild card: Shavkat Rakhmonov. Another hyped prospect, but less well-known than Chimaev, Rakhmonov is 14-0 and might get a big fight if he's impressive vs. Carlson Harris (our #51 WW currently).

Vegas thinks: Usman, Chamaev, Edwards. Ok, but we had it first, last year basically. We were ahead of our time.

Lightweight

Last year's picks:  1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier  WC: GSP

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	88.87	15-0-0	UFC	[retired]
3	2	Charles Oliveira	LW	64.26	23-8-0	UFC	[interim LW title holder]  #4 Justin Gaethje
2	3	Dustin Poirier	LW	41.88	23-7-0	UFC	???
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.79	17-3-0	UFC	#2 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Beneil Dariush	LW	38.54	16-4-1	UFC	•2/26 vs. #6 Islam Makhachev

Grade: B-

Ok, we failed hard here but in a way we were right: McGregor got two shots at the top basically. And that was our logic—if he won he'd hold the title hostage; lose, and he'd get another try. But we ended up with Oliveira close to the top, and Dustin too. We punted on the Wild Card pick with GSP and it shows. Wild, though!

This year's picks: Possible LW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Islam Makhachev  2) Charles Oliveira  3) Beneil Dariush

Analysis: Is Islam inevitable? Sure looks that way. Even with a solid champ in Oliveira and tough competitor in Dariush, Makhachev, currently at #6, is a level above those grapplers. Geathje is the odd man out in likelihood to beat two grapplers, and Dustin's odds are hurt by the high probability that he either retires or takes some time off.

Long-shot/wild card: Arman Tsarukyan. Currently #24 at 14-1, he might be the only guy who can possibly beat Makhachev on the ground. His only loss is to Makhachev, but no one else will out-grapple him as he tries to get to the top for a rematch.

Vegas thinks: Oliveira, Gaethje, Makhachev. All three very close.

Featherweight

Last year's picks: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire  WC: Emmanuel Sanchez

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	59.86	15-0-0	UFC	#5 Max Holloway
2	2	A.J. McKee	FW	48.22	12-0-0	Bell	#3 Patricio Freire
3	3	Patricio Freire	FW	36.88	19-5-0	Bell	#2 A.J. McKee
4	4	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	32.39	8-0-1	Prof	?
5	5	Max Holloway	FW	30.63	21-6-0	UFC	#1 Alexander Volkanovski

Last year's grade: B

Well, Zabit never re-emerged like we'd hoped and the Featherweight division ended up much the same as it started 2021, with Volkanovski on top, but AJ McKee bumped Patricio Freire from the top of Bellator. Zabit has fallen to #10 due to inactivity and we're not betting the house on his return. 

This year's picks: Possible FW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Alexander Volkanovski 2) A.J. McKee  3) Max Holloway 

Analysis: There are two camps, UFC and Bellator, and simple math indicates that the winners of the rematches will be #1 and #2. The big question is can Volk beat Max a 3rd time, and can McKee beat Freire a 2nd time? The probable answer to both of those is yes, and with Max far behind on points he's 3rd most likely to end up on top.

Long-shot/wild card: #22 Ilia Topuria. Undefeated, just 24, and in a big fight early against our #6 Movsar Evleov? That gives him a chance to make a big move quick. Is he ready? Probably not this fast, but that's what makes him a wild card. The winner of this fight has a chance to fight for the title soon, and Evleov is too high-ranked to be listed as a long shot.

Vegas thinks: Volanovski, Holloway, Brian Ortega. Since they're rating just the UFC, McKee and Freire aren't in the mix.

Bantamweight

Last year's picks:  1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo  WC: TJ Dillashaw

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	53.69	10-2-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Aljamain Sterling	BW	44.62	14-3-0	UFC	[Interim BW title holder]
3	3	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	41.01	21-2-0	One	--last rated win -26 months.
8	4	Hiromasa Ougikubo	BW	36.36	21-5-1	Rizi	???
15	5	Sergio Pettis	BW	35.93	15-5-0	Bell	Bellator BW tournament

Last year's grade: A+

We award ourselves an ironic A+ because, well, we picked Sterling to hold the title and he does. We also picked Fernandes 2nd and he didn't lose. Neither did Cejudo! Of course Sterling won in less-than-honorable circumstances, Fernandes was idle all year and Cejudo remained retired. But our long-shot pick of TJ Dillashaw wasn't bad, as he made a successful comeback.

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) TJ Dillashaw  2) Petr Yan  3) Kyoji Horiguchi

Analysis: After our luck with Sterling, we see Yan winning the rematch. But we're still not sold on Yan's greatness, and Dillashaw might end up with our belt. Yan is currently #10 due to the DQ loss to Sterling while Dillashaw is #6 after his comeback. Ougikubo is a wild card due to fighting in Rizin, as he's milked most of the points possible from fighting in that org, and will probably lose in 2022 at some point. We also assume Cejudo is retired for good and that Fernandes has been too inactive at his age and will probably lose, too. The real question is: who will win the Bellator Bantamweight tournament? If we knew that, we'd usher that person to the top spot, but it's a tough pick among 8 fighters. We still have confidence in Kyoji Horiguchi who dominated Sergio Pettis until the one-elbow KO did him in.

Long-shot/wild card: Umar Nurmagomedov. Why not? He's just #22 and only 1-0 in the UFC but he's got the potential to make a lot of progress and get there some day. The Nurmagomedov-adjacent fighters move up slowly, though, so this is really a long shot for 2022.

Vegas thinks: Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling (tie) Aldo. Not too different than ours, really. Aldo's inclusion is interesting; we think his comeback run is coming to an end, but it would be great if it continues.

Flyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno  WC: Adriano Moraes

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Brandon Moreno	FL	34.66	9-2-2	UFC	•1/22 vs. #8 Deiveson Figueiredo
2	2	Adriano Moraes	FL	30.61	8-2-0	One	#5 Demetrious Johnson
3	3	Alexandre Pantoja	FL	24.69	10-3-0	UFC	Moreno/Figueiredo winner
4	4	Joshua Pacio	FL	24.38	5-1-0	One	?
5	5	Demetrious Johnson	FL	24.00	22-4-1	One	#2 Adriano Moraes

Last year's grade: B-

How were we to know that Mighty Mouse would be upset and Figueiredo would get beat soundly? We at least kept Moreno in the mix at #3—and had Moraes, who beat Johnson, as our long shot (he ended up #2). 

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Brandon Moreno  3) Askar Askarov

Analysis: Looking at the top five, it's about 50/50 whether the end-of-2022 champ comes from the UFC or One Championship. And we have to still believe that DJ is the cream of the crop there, whereas in the UFC it's less clear-cut: Moreno is a good possibility, as is Askarov. Pacio is really a Strawweight, but ranked here for lack of another weight class ranking; he probably can't amass enough points to get to the top easily.

Long-shot/wild card: Henry Cejudo. Yes we're out of ideas. This is probably the least likely weight class between FW/BW/FL for Cejudo to make his unlikely comeback in.

Vegas thinks: Moreno, Figueiredo, Askarov. Interesting that they include Askarov, too. So pretty close to how ours would look if we only listed UFC fighters.

 

Well that's it...see you in 2023 for a recap!

October is Light Heavyweight Month in MMA: Blachowicz-Teixeira, Nemkov-Anglickas, Bader-Anderson, & more

If you like the Light Heavyweight division in MMA then October is the month for you, with six of our top ten fighters active, and no less that four intra-top 25 bouts.

Two fights will determine who the Interim SportsRatings Light Heavyweight title holder is. The actual belt has been vacant for over six months since Jon Jones officially went inactive. Jones has threatened to move up to Heavyweight and recently has had legal problems (to say the least) so who knows when he will fight again. He continues to lose rating points but will rank #1 for at least the rest of 2021.

That leaves #2 Jan Blachowicz with the interim belt, which he will defend on October 30 against #5 Glover Teixeira. If he wins, he holds the belt, that part is simple. If Teixeira wins, then it depends on the results of #3 Vadim Nemkov vs. #13 Julius Anglickas on the 16th at Bellator. If Glover and Nemkov both win, Nemkov will be the interim title holder. Teixeira needs Anglickas to beat Nemkov.

Other big bouts include #4 Ryan Bader against #8 Corey Anderson, also on the 16th as Bellator; this, like Nemkov-Anglickas, is part of Bellator's Light Heavyweight tournament, and the winners will face each other in the Grand Prix final. Note that Anglickas is a replacement for Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson who pulled out of the tournament due to (non-Covid) illness.

And finally for the top ten, #6 Magomed Ankalaev fights #36 Volkan Oezdemir. Oezdemir is a lot better than our ranking suggests; his last win was over current #16 Aleksander Rakic almost two years ago, after which he lost to current #9 Jiri Prochazka. Ankalaev is 15-1, his sole loss to #11 Paul Craig in 2018 followed by a 6-fight win streak.

SportsRatings Light Heavyweight rankings - top 8

Sept Rank	Oct Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	September results; •October schedule
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	75.44	20-1-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Jan Blachowicz	LH	62.81	22-6-0	UFC	[interim LH title holder] •10/30 vs. #5 Glover Teixeira [to retain interim LH title]
3	3	Vadim Nemkov	LH	50.92	8-2-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #13 Julius Anglickas  [for interim LH title]?
4	4	Ryan Bader	LH	32.71	22-6-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #8 Corey Anderson
5	5	Glover Teixeira	LH	26.59	25-6-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #2 Jan Blachowicz  [for interim LH title]?
6	6	Magomed Ankalaev	LH	26.18	8-1-0	UFC	•10/30 vs. #36 Volkan Oezdemir
9	7	Phil Davis	LH	22.43	19-6-0	Bell	Beat #25 Yoel Romero
7	8	Corey Anderson	LH	22.22	10-4-0	Bell	•10/16 vs. #4 Ryan Bader

And that's not all. Outside the top ten there are several others active:

• #17 Da Un Jung battles #20 Kennedy Nzechukwu on the 16th in the UFC
• #19 Shamil Gamzatov fights #48 Michal Oleksiejczuk on the 30th, also in the UFC
• #24 Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov takes on #39 Karl Albrektsson in Bellator on the 16th

And we've already seen one results, as #62 Thiago Santos defeated #21 Johnny Walker by unanimous decision on October 2nd. Santos got his first win since February of 2019, and that dry spell coupled with three losses sent him to the nether zone in our ratings, but he'll be coming back up, probably just shy of the top 25 however. Santos overcome several injuries suffered during his loss to Jon Jones but looked much better against Walker than he did in losses to Teixeira and Rakic.

Ramifications

We've covered the belt situation: Blachowicz needs to win, Nemkov needs Blachowicz to lose, and Teixeira needs to win and have Nemkov to lose.

What's the best-case for Ryan Bader? He's too far behind at #4 to gain much ground with a win, so he'll only make a major advance if he wins the full tournament. If he beats Anderson and then Nemkov, he would be the interim title holder provided Glover Teixeira beats Blachowicz. Here's a look at the Bellator fighters' best possible ratings.

1) After the next round of fights, assuming a win:

• Nemkov 52.73
• Anglickas 40.88
• Bader 36.29
• Anderson 32.07

2) After the Grand Prix final, depending on their opponent in the final:

• Nemkov 58.64 / 57.40
• Bader 52.03 / 46.40
• Anderson 49.18 / 43.17
• Anglickas 48.27 / 46.75

Compare this to the values for Blachowicz or Teixeira after winning their fight:

• Blachowicz 65.56
• Glover 51.76

So you see, if Nemkov wins the Grand Prix he would overtake Teixeira regardless of opponent, and Bader would hold the interim belt over Teixeira if he beats Anderson and then Nemkov (but not if he faces Anglickas).

In all other cases, or if Blachowicz successfully defends his title, 2nd best (really, 3rd) is the best a Bellator fighter can do. 

When will Jones relinquish the top spot?

A long time, sadly. That's what happens when you dominate and go undefeated—you build up a huge point advantage. Jones would either have to lose or finally actually fight in another division to disappear from the top spot in the next year. That's right A YEAR before his points decay enough to fall to #2.

If Jan beats Glover and doesn't fight again, he wouldn't take over the #1 spot until the September 1st, 2022 ratings. Nemkov would have to wait until March of 2023. Bader and Glover's best shots wouldn't get them to #1 until August of 2023. Of course Nemkov, Bader, and Glover would have to fight before then or be considered inactive themselves.

And since Bones won't be fighting anywhere in the near future, it looks like we'll be discussing the Light Heavyweight interim belt well into next year, if not longer.

Map: Birthplaces of the current top 100 p4p MMA fighters

Reddit user animbicile created a world map of the birthplaces of the top 100 MMA fighters, using our current (April) p4p top 100.

 

 

Pretty cool stuff! See the map, and the requisite shaming of our rankings in the original reddit post.

Khabib Nurmagomedov hits #1 P4P...5 months after retirement

When Francis Ngannou beat Stipe Miocic the other night, he took over the #1 spot on our Heavyweight rankings but only jumped to #3 on our pound-for-pound rankings. There, Miocic fell to #5 while jumping from #2 to #1 was...Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Mar 2021	Apr 2021	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	March 2021 results
2	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	91.59	15-0-0	UFC
3	2	Kamaru Usman	WW	89.02	13-0-0	UFC
10	3	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.73	10-2-0	UFC	Beat #1 Stipe Miocic
4	4	Jon Jones	LH	80.75	20-1-0	UFC	--last rated win -13 months.
1	5	Stipe Miocic	HW	69.01	15-4-0	UFC	Lost to #10 Francis Ngannou

Khabib (as we will reference him from here forth) is still our Lightweight champ despite retiring about 5 months ago following his win over Justin Gaethje. But we don't de-list fighters for retiring. Too many fighters "unretire" or make comebacks, so it's best to just let time degrade their ranking and after 5 years, go to zero.

Besides, we don't feel like keeping a history of every fighter's retirement pronouncements. Currently there are two retired fighters that hold SportsRatings MMA belts, Khabib at Lightweight and Henry Cejudo at Bantamweight. When a fighter hasn't fought in a full year he becomes "inactive" and doesn't hold the belt anymore, regardless of whether he's still at #1 in his division. Jon Jones is inactive at Light Heavyweight (where #2 Jan Blachowicz is interim champ) and Demetrious Johnson is inactive at Flyweight (Deiveson Figueiredo is interim Flyweight champ). 

Khabib won't relinquish the Lightweight belt until October 25 of this year, while Cejudo will be Bantamweight champ until May 10th. 

What this means is that Khabib can still be our P4P champion until November 1st. Someone could pass him, since he won't be earning any more points. #2 Kamaru Usman will probably get really close if he beats Jorge Masvidal on April 24th, but it won't quite be enough.

There haven't been many "chart-toppers" in the history of our P4P list. Going all the way back to the first UFC, there have only been 18 different people who have been #1 outright (while active):

Start   Fighter                 Rating     Reign
11/1993	Royce Gracie		20.46	13 months
12/1994	Ken Shamrock		36.21	17 months
05/1996	Dan Severn		40.73	 9 months
02/1997	Mark Coleman		38.71	 5 months
07/1997	Maurice Smith		31.86	 1 month
08/1997	Igor Vovchanchyn	32.56	 1 month
09/1997	Johil de Oliveira	32.77	 2 months
11/1997	Igor Vovchanchyn	37.41	 1 month 
12/1997	Masakatsu Funaki	38.03	 2 months
02/1998	Igor Vovchanchyn	39.21	24 months (26 months total)
02/2000	Dan Henderson		58.01	10 months
12/2000	Wanderlei Silva		49.29	 2 months
02/2001	Antonio Rod. Nogueira   55.53	25 months
03/2003 Fedor Emelianenko	68.30	41 months
10/2006	Fedor Emelianenko      102.20	21 months 
07/2008	Fedor Emelianenko      106.14	23 months (85 months total)
06/2010	Georges St. Pierre	87.18	28 months
10/2012	Anderson Silva		92.78	 1 month
11/2012	Georges St. Pierre	97.77	24 months (52 months total)
01/2015	Jon Jones	       104.70	12 months
04/2016	Jon Jones	       100.76	12 months (24 months total)
06/2018	Stipe Miocic		84.40	 1 month
07/2018	Daniel Cormier		92.00	13 months 
08/2019	Stipe Miocic		87.65	19 months (20 months total)
03/2021	Khabib Nurmagomedov	91.59	 1 month

In addition, 7 fighters held the "active p4p" title while the #1 fighter was inactive:

• Chuck Liddell (08/2006 for 2 months)
• Quinton Jackson (04/2008 for 3 months)
• Anderson Silva (04/2012 for 6 months)
• Jon Jones (11/2014 for 2 months)
• Fabricio Werdum (01/2016 for 3 months)
• Conor McGregor (04/2017 for 1 month)
• Stipe Miocic (05/2017 for 13 months)

Khabib will likely be #1 from end of March through end of September, corresponding to monthly ratings for April to  October, not a bad 7-month reign for a retired fighter. Usman is poised to take over after that, unless Ngannou and Jones fight this summer, which is not looking likely.

MMA: Who will be on top at the END of 2021? Analysis for all weight classes

We're just getting into 2021 and the top players in each weight class are pretty well known. But a number of changes are coming, both from top dogs switching weight classes or retiring, to the inevitable upsets and changing of the guard. Here we look ahead to January 1, 2022, and project who will be on top in each weight class in our rankings.

For each weight class we'll look at our current top five and their most likely upcoming fights, then project the three fighters most likely to occupy the top spot a year from now. We'll throw in a long-shot/wild-card candidate too: either someone who is good enough to be a title holder but probably won't get a chance to prove it, or a fighter who is getting a shot but the odds are against them. Or just someone who might shake things up.

Heavyweight - over 205 lbs.

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Stipe Miocic	HW	97.61	15-3-0	UFC	#2 Francis Ngannou
2	2	Francis Ngannou	HW	50.86	9-2-0	UFC	#1 Stipe Miocic
3	3	Daniel Cormier	HW	40.66	18-3-0	UFC	--retired
4	4	Curtis Blaydes	HW	38.44	10-2-0	UFC	•2/20 vs. #5 Derrick Lewis
5	5	Derrick Lewis	HW	27.88	13-5-0	UFC	•2/20 vs. #4 Curtis Blaydes

Current top rated HW: Stipe Miocic
Current HW champion: Stipe Miocic (active thru August 15, 2021)
Possible HW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: With Daniel Cormier retired the heavyweight division is a 2-man show right now, and the Miocic/Ngannou rematch will determine who reigns in 2021. But with Jon Jones entering the picture everything is up in the air. Assuming the top two fight first, with Jones meeting the winner, Jones is in the best situation to claim the belt. In other words, Jones just has to beat Miocic or Ngannou; Miocic and Ngannou have to beat the other contender AND Jones to be on top in 2022. Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis fight each other for the #4 spot, which is where they'll end up.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Ciryl Gane. If Jones doesn't fight for the belt in 2021, Derrick Lewis could get the call, but he's already in the top 5 so we're going with Gane (currently #18) as our long-shot; he's matched next with #10 Jairzinho Rozenstruik on March 13.

Light Heavyweight - 205 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	82.47	20-1-0	UFC	•remains champion until Feb. 9 •transitioning to HW
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	46.34	7-2-0	Bell	#4 Ryan Bader/#5 Phil Davis
3	3	Jan Blachowicz	LH	38.13	21-6-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #1 MW Israel Adesanya
4	4	Ryan Bader	LH	33.22	21-6-0	Bell	(?) #2 Vadim Nemkov
5	5	Phil Davis	LH	29.25	17-5-0	Bell	(?) #2 Vadim Nemkov

Current top rated LH: Jon Jones
Current LH champion: Jon Jones (active thru Feb. 8, 2021)
Possible LH champs for Jan 2022: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira

Analysis: This division is wide open. The only thing we know for sure is that on Febuary 9th, Jon Jones becomes "inactive" and cedes the LH belt; Vadim Nemkov will then become interim champion. Other than that, it's up in the air. Will Jon Jones move to heavyweight? Will #1 middleweight Israel Adesanya fight at Light Heavyweight? The latter looks pretty certain for March, and the Izzy vs. Jan Blachowicz winner would become our outright champ the moment Jones makes the leap to HW. We favor Izzy but can't count out another Blachowicz miracle. Since #6 Glover Teixeira is considered an unofficial backup for the fight, and/or could face the winner, we put him #3. Bellator's LH division is solid, especially with the addition of Rumble Johnson and Yoel Romero, but no one will have the points to be on top as long as Izzy enters the fray at LH some time this year.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Jiri Prochazka. Anyone from Bellator could be here, but as noted the numbers are against them with Izzy in the mix. Instead we go with Prochazka, the latest hyped-up youngster (remember Johnny Walker?). Currently #10, Prochazka will have to prove he's the real deal against Dominick Reyes; a win there might propel him to a title shot before 2021 is over.

Middleweight - 185 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Israel Adesanya	MW	70.74	8-0-0	UFC	• transitioning to LH •3/06 vs. #3 LH Jan Blachowicz
2	2	Robert Whittaker	MW	53.77	14-5-0	UFC	#8 Marvin Vittori/#9 Paulo Costa
4	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	49.81	38-7-2	Bell	#11 John Salter
3	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	49.48	24-2-0	UFC	--retired
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	40.16	7-0-0	Bell	--retired (medical)

Current top rated MW: Israel Adesanya
Current MW champ: Israel Adesanya (active thru Sept. 26, 2021)
Possible MW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya

Analysis: This division is even more screwed up than Light Heavyweight. Israel Adesanya is moving up and he's already defeated #2 Robert Whittaker and other top candidates like #7 Derek Brunson and #9 Paulo Costa. Gegard Mousasi is tops in Bellator but he's out of top-tier opponents having vanquished #6 Douglas Lima while #5 Rafael Lovato Jr. is retired due to a worrisome brain condition. And if #4 Georges St. Pierre ever comes back it won't be at Middleweight. So our reasoning is this: Whittaker is guaranteed to be our title holder after March 6; he will probably defend against one of the other UFC contenders; if he loses, Mousasi moves into the top spot; and Izzy might decide to come back and defend the title, win or lose against Blachowicz. We only rank fighters at one weight class so if he stays at LH he won't be in the mix, but the rest is too hard to figure out.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Khamzat Chimaev. His next fight is at Welterweight so he's more likely to park there but with this division wide open, why not?

Welterweight - 170 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	83.00	12-0-0	UFC	•2/13 vs. #2 Gilbert Burns
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	45.00	12-3-0	UFC	•2/13 vs. #1 Kamaru Usman
3	3	Colby Covington	WW	42.10	10-2-0	UFC	#5 Jorge Masvidal
4	4	Leon Edwards	WW	36.03	12-2-0	UFC	•3/13 vs. #35 Khamzat Chimaev
5	5	Jorge Masvidal	WW	30.34	33-14-0	UFC	#3 Colby Covington

Current top rated WW: Kamaru Usman
Current WW champ: Kamaru Usman (active through July 11, 2021)
Possible WW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns

Analysis: It's not that we're totally buying into the Khamzat Chimaev hype that we put him at #2—we just don't see any other challengers for Kamaru Usman on the horizon. He's defeated most of the rest of the top five; only Gilbert Burns still hasn't had his shot, so we put him at #3. But consider Leon Edwards' situation. Even beating Chimaev won't make him more likely to beat Usman in a rematch, and would either Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal improve on their losing efforts? Chimaev is only #35 in our rankings but a win over Edwards would move him into UFC title contention in short order, and at least we haven't seen that one played out yet. Let's face it, Usman's style isn't pretty but he does what he has to do to win, and as long as he stays at Welterweight he looks like the champ, making him the first one we project to still be on top come 2022.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Sean Brady. Given that we have Khamzat up at #2 it's hard to pick a big enough long shot, so we'll go really long with Brady, undefeated but unproven at #25. He's well-rounded and gets mostly decision wins; maybe that's what's needed to beat Usman's methodical style? He'd need to be a replacement fighter a couple of times to even get the chance though.

Lightweight - 155 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	91.53	15-0-0	UFC	• retired • remains champion until Oct. 25
2	2	Dustin Poirier	LW	49.62	21-6-0	UFC	•1/23 vs. #5 Conor McGregor
7	3	Charles Oliveira	LW	43.70	21-8-0	UFC	(?) #4 Justin Gaethje
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.19	16-3-0	UFC	(?) #3 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Conor McGregor	LW	38.28	14-2-0	UFC	•1/23 vs. #2 Dustin Poirier

Current top rated LW: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Current LW champ: Khabib Nurmagomedov (thru Oct. 24, 2021)
Possible (interim) LW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier

Analysis: Another case where the current champ won't be champ at the end of the year. Khabib Nurmagomedov is retired but still holds our LW title; he'll be our #1 ranked Lightweight for years and will be considered Champion until late October. At that point the 2nd-ranked fighter will be our interim champ, and that will most likely be current #5 Conor McGregor. We don't doubt #2 Dustin Poirier can beat him, but if he does, he'll defend his interim UFC title later in the year and might lose to #3 Charles Oliveira, who might have to get past #4 Justin Gaethje first anyway. So you see how McGregor's odds are the most favorable—it's easier to win one fight than two. If McGregor beats Poirier, we see him being awarded the outright UFC belt and sitting on it for the rest of the year while the UFC tries in vain to get Nurmagomedov back for a rematch. And McGregor will probably box one of the Paul brothers instead.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Georges St. Pierre. Now there's a wild card. If they can't get Khabib back, maybe they can get GSP to face Conor?

Featherweight - 145 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	58.99	14-0-0	UFC	#8 Brian Ortega
2	2	Patricio Freire	FW	49.09	18-4-0	Bell	#11 Emmanuel Sanchez
3	3	Lance Palmer	FW	36.35	18-3-0	Prof	(?)
4	4	A.J. McKee	FW	31.07	11-0-0	Bell	#2 Patricio Freire/#11 Sanchez
5	5	Zabit Magomedsharipov	FW	29.28	9-0-0	UFC	(?) #36 Yair Rodriguez

Current top rated FW: Alexander Volkanovski
Current FW champ: Alexander Volkanovski (thru July 11, 2021)
Possible FW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire
Analysis: This one's complicated, too. Both UFC and Bellator big names are all in the mix. Let's eliminate #3 Lance Palmer, since he doesn't have much of anyone to fight in PFL when they finally reboot. In Bellator Patricio Freire will very likely be the opponent for AJ McKee in the FW Grand Prix finals, where McKee has a good chance of winning. But McKee won't have enough points to be ahead of every UFC fighter even with that win, so Freire gets our nod as most likely champ from Bellator regardless. The UFC probably holds on to the crown, either with Alexander Volkanovski or Zabit Magomedsharipov. We see Volk beating #8 Brian Ortega (has he really improved enough to beat the guy that beat Max Holloway twice?) and then Zabit coming back from inactivity to take the title. 

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Emmanuel Sanchez. No one expects Sanchez to upset Freire to make the Bellator Grand Prix finals, but he avenged his loss to Daniel Weichel in the quarterfinals, and a win over McKee in the finals would put him...probably not at #1, lots of other upsets would have to happen in the UFC. That's why he's a long-shot.

Bantamweight - 135 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	58.28	10-2-0	UFC	• retired • remains champion until May 10
2	2	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	47.76	21-2-0	One	#15 John Lineker
5	3	Kyoji Horiguchi	BW	40.38	27-3-0	Rizi	(?)
3	4	Aljamain Sterling	BW	39.73	13-3-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #5 Petr Yan
6	5	Petr Yan	BW	28.15	9-0-0	UFC	•3/06 vs. #4 Aljamain Sterling

Current top rated BW: Henry Cejudo
Current BW champ: Henry Cejudo (thru May 9, 2021)
Possible BW interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo

Analysis: Petr Yan is UFC champ but only #5 in our rankings, one spot behind next opponent Aljamain Sterling. We expect Sterling to win that matchup, then beat the winner of Corey Sandhagen / Frankie Edgar and become the interim champ by the end of the year. If Sterling loses along the way, One Championship's Bibiano Fernandez might become interim champ; Fernandez has been at or near the top of our BW rankings for years. The wild card here is current (though retired) champ Henry Cejudo, who has been hinting at a comeback. He would probably fight at 135 and with his high rating any win would re-activate him as champ, and especially if it's a one-off fight Cejudo would remain champ until 2022.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: TJ Dillashaw. Dillashaw is the dictionary definition of a wildcard. Currently ranked as a Flyweight (since he fought there last) Dillashaw is returning from two-year suspension for EPO use. What fights will he get, and how will he do? No one knows, but some think he'll get a high-ranked opponent immediately.

Flyweight - 125 lb. limit

Dec Rank	Jan Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable Next Opponent
1	1	Demetrious Johnson	FL	39.27	21-3-1	One	[ inactive -14 months] •2/24 vs. #19 Adriano Moraes
2	2	Deiveson Figueiredo	FL	31.31	10-1-1	UFC	[interim FL champ] #4 Brandon Moreno
3	3	Manel Kape	FL	28.67	6-3-0	UFC	•2/06 vs. #35 Alexandre Pantoja
7	4	Brandon Moreno	FL	25.65	7-2-2	UFC	#2 Deiveson Figueiredo
4	5	T.J. Dillashaw	FL	25.53	11-3-0	UFC	(?) probably at BW

Current top rated FL: Demetrious Johnson
Current FL interim champ: Deiveson Figueiredo (thru Dec 12, 2021)
Possible FL interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno

Analysis: Straight down the line, that's how we see the Flyweight division. Demetrious Johnson is inactive so he's not the champ, but we expect him to recover his title in February. If Mighty Mouse should falter then Deiveson Figueiredo can capture the outright crown for the first time by beating #4 Brandon Moreno in their rematch, which shouldn't be as close as the first fight. No one else, though, has as much of a chance to upset Figueiredo as Moreno, so we put him #3. Manel Kape is making his UFC debut and those rarely go well, and #5 TJ Dillashaw is not going to fight at Flyweight.

Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Adriano Moraes. Might as well make it someone who has a shot. Should Moraes upset Mighty Mouse he will probably have to defend at least once, if not give DJ a rematch, so even if he wins it's unlikely he'll hold the title come 2022. But there's a chance.

Ryan Bader vs. Vadim Nemkov: For the Light Heavyweight title?

With Jon Jones dramatically abdicating his UFC Light Heavyweight belt, where does that leave the division? And how do Ryan Bader and Vadim Nemkov, fighting tonight in Bellator 244, figure into it?

Our take reflects the rules of our Rating System: Bader vs. Nemkov is potentially a title fight, or at least an interim title fight, but not at this moment.

Here's our current top 5 in the Light Heavyweight division:

July Rank	Aug Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	July results; •August schedule
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	82.44	20-1-0	UFC
2	2	Ryan Bader	LH	50.09	21-5-0	Bell	•8/21 vs. #4 Vadim Nemkov
3	3	Jan Blachowicz	LH	36.25	20-6-0	UFC
4	4	Vadim Nemkov	LH	29.73	6-2-0	Bell	•8/21 vs. #2 Ryan Bader
5	5	Phil Davis	LH	27.07	16-5-0	Bell

Jones is #1 of course, but Bader is #2, and far ahead of #3 Jan Blachowicz, the highest-ranked contender in the UFC. Nemkov is at #4 followed by Phil Davis, also currently in Bellator. That gives Bellator 3 of the top 5, thought that's pretty much it for the promotion at 205. There's quality there, but not much depth.

With Jones gone the winner of tonight's bout will be the highest-ranked Light Heavyweight. The thing is, Jones isn't leaving our Light Heavyweight rankings any time soon.

We don't remove fighters when they "retire" or give up a belt. We'd only remove Jones when he fights in a different weight class. So Bader or Nemkov won't be our Light Heavyweight title holder until Bones makes his long-expected move to Heavyweight—and only when he actually fights. We don't move a champion until the actual bout occurs, unlike Bader, who we moved in the month prior to his return to Light Heavyweight.

So tonight's fight won't be for the title right away, but the winner might be the title holder at some point this year. If not, then the winner will receive the Interim belt in February if Jones doesn't fight by then. That would mean Jon Jones has been inactive for a year and no longer holds the belt despite being ranked #1; the #2 fighter would be the interim champ.

In other words, the winner between Bader and Nemkov will be either the champion or interim champion on February 8, 2021, unless Jon Jones fights again at Light Heavyweight before that time.

In the UFC, #3 Jan Blachowicz is pitted again Dominick Reyes for the UFC belt, but neither would have the points that tonight's winner will. Reyes is ranked only #17 in our list, and victory would move him up to #3, behind Jones and the Bader-Nemkov winner. Blachowicz holds his #3 position with a win.

Of course, if Jones decides to remain at Light Heavyweight and fight again, he would remain champ. Unless he loses, and in that case the guy who beat him would be the champion. Jones has way too many points for any Bellator fighter to surpass him, so only Jones' inactivity or his move to another weight class leaves an opening. 

MMA Lightweight division reshuffled with McGregor on top

November was a crazy month in the MMA Lightweight division, as seen in this month's rankings:

MMA Lightweight rankings for December, 2016

Nov Rank	Dec Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Pro	November results; •December schedule
3	1	Conor McGregor	LW	68.04	11-1-0	UFC	Beat #1 Eddie Alvarez
1	2	Eddie Alvarez	LW	50.71	22-5-0	UFC	Lost to #3 Conor McGregor
8	3	Tony Ferguson	LW	46.03	9-1-0	UFC	Beat #2 Rafael dos Anjos
2	4	Rafael dos Anjos	LW	37.57	16-7-0	UFC	Lost to #8 Tony Ferguson
5	5	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	33.85	9-0-0	UFC	Beat #18 Michael Johnson
89	6	Eduard Folayang	LW	29.00	7-4-0	One	Beat #4 Shinya Aoki
7	7	Edson Barboza	LW	27.81	13-4-0	UFC
14	8	Beneil Dariush	LW	27.61	8-2-0	UFC	Beat #9 Rashid Magomedov
4	9	Shinya Aoki	LW	27.10	32-6-0	One	Lost to #89 Eduard Folayang
25	10	Michael Chandler	LW	25.13	10-3-0	Bel	Beat #6 Benson Henderson

Conor McGregor takes over the top spot from Eddie Alvarez, while Tony Ferguson knocks previous champ Rafael dos Anjos to #4. Khabib Nurmagomedov waits patiently (or not so much) at #5, while Eduard Folayang pulled off the upset of the month in beating Shinya Aoki. Folayang flies in at #6 all the way from #89 among Lightweights! Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler join the top 10 after upset wins over Rashid Magomedov and Benson Henderson respectively.

As for December, the Welterweight division will be particularly active, but it's the Bantamweight division with the most action at the top of the rankings:

MMA Bantamweight rankings for December, 2016

Nov Rank	Dec Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Pro	November results; •December schedule
1	1	Dominick Cruz	BW	35.66	14-1-0	UFC	•12/30 vs. Cody Garbrandt
2	2	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	30.93	15-1-0	One	•12/3 vs. Reece McLaren
3	3	Marlon Moraes	BW	26.24	7-0-0	WSoF	•12/31 vs. Josenaldo Silva
4	4	T.J. Dillashaw	BW	23.22	6-2-0	UFC	•12/30 vs. #6 John Lineker
5	5	Eduardo Dantas	BW	19.57	11-3-0	Bel	•12/2 vs. Joe Warren
6	6	John Lineker	BW	18.10	7-1-0	UFC	•12/30 vs. #4 TJ Dillashaw

The top six fighters in the division are active, with Dominick Cruz facing Cody Garbrandt, Bibiano Fernandez taking on Reece McLaren in One Championship, and Marlon Maraes against Josenaldo Silva in World Series of Fighting. Also in the UFC, #4 TJ Dillashaw tackles #6 John Lineker, with the winner possible taking over the #2 spot.

McGregor's Loss to Diaz Shakes Up...the Welterweight division?

By now every MMA fan has had time to digest Conor McGregor's loss to Nate Diaz. For our ratings there are ramifications, of course. Naturally our top ten pound-for-pound rankings, where McGregor was at #9 prior to the bout, are affected.

SportsRatings MMA pound-for-pound top 20, as of March 5th bouts:

Prev	Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Early March results
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	98.39	15-1-0	last win -14 months.
2	2	Georges St. Pierre	WW	83.61	23-2-0	last win -28 months.
3	3	Fabricio Werdum	HW	83.27	19-5-1
4	4	Luke Rockhold	MW	74.68	12-1-0
5	5	Rafael dos Anjos	LW	73.06	16-5-0
6	6	Chris Weidman	MW	64.23	9-1-0
7	7	Daniel Cormier	LH	53.33	13-1-0
8	8	Robbie Lawler	WW	51.14	28-10-0
10	9	Eddie Alvarez	LW	47.47	21-4-0
11	10	Cain Velasquez	HW	46.22	10-2-0	last win -29 months.
12	11	Anthony Johnson	LH	45.44	18-5-0
13	12	Yoel Romero	MW	44.41	7-0-0
14	13	Shinya Aoki	WW	39.74	31-5-0
113	14	Nate Diaz	WW	37.66	17-10-0	Beat #9 Conor McGregor
15	15	Jose Aldo	FW	37.54	17-2-0	last win -17 months.
16	16	Donald Cerrone	WW	37.46	22-7-0
17	17	Demetrious Johnson	FL	36.42	12-1-1
9	18	Conor McGregor	WW	34.11	7-1-0	Lost to #113 Nate Diaz
18	19	Alistair Overeem	HW	33.16	33-14-0
19	20	Dominick Cruz	BW	33.10	13-1-0

McGregor remains in the top 20 while Diaz jumps to his highest ranking ever at #14. For now, it looks like neither #5 Rafael dos Anjos nor #8 Robbie Lawler will be facing McGregor any time soon; Diaz might get a shot at either one, depending on whether he remains at 170 or returns to 155.

For our weight class ratings we face a dilemma; where do we put McGregor and Diaz? McGregor is likely to return to 145 but there's no guarantee, and Diaz's plans aren't clear either. So for now we're going to rank them where they just fought: at Welterweight. This adds to a rather confusing picture at the 170 weight class.

SportsRatings Welterweight rankings for April, 2016 (fights through March 5th)

Prev	Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	March 5 Results
1	1	Georges St. Pierre	WW	83.61	23-2-0	last rated win -28 months.
2	2	Robbie Lawler	WW	51.14	28-10-0
4	3	Shinya Aoki	WW	39.74	31-5-0
28	4	Nate Diaz	WW	37.66	17-10-0	Beat #3 Conor McGregor
5	5	Donald Cerrone	WW	37.46	22-7-0
3	6	Conor McGregor	WW	34.11	7-1-0	Lost to #28 Nate Diaz
6	7	Ben Askren	WW	31.18	8-0-0	last rated win -19 months.
7	8	Benson Henderson	WW	30.75	15-4-0
8	9	Tyron Woodley	WW	29.17	10-3-0	last rated win -14 months.
9	10	Rousimar Palhares	WW	28.37	14-4-0

First, of course, we still rank George St. Pierre at #1, though since he hasn't fought in over two years he's declared inactive and the interim Welterweight belt goes to UFC champ and #2 Robbie Lawler. At #3 is Shinya Aoki, who fought at 155 until a recent catchweight bout with Kazushi Sakuraba. Going forward, Aoki may stay at 170 since he, along with all One Championship fighters, are moving up a weight class due to the promotion's new no-weight-cut policy. #7 Ben Askren is also affected by the policy and thus we assume he'll be fighting at 185—a Welterweight in name according to One, but a Middleweight in actual mass.

Then we have Nate Diaz at #4. Diaz claimed he had told Dana White he was going to move up to 170 anyway. We'll see where he lands. #5 Donald Cerrone only recently moved up to 170 as well. Is he permanent? With Conor McGregor at #6, that leaves Lawler as the only active, permanent Welterweight among our top seven.

Rounding out the top ten we have Bellator's Benson Henderson who has fought at 170 for over a year; #9 Tyron Woodley is a true Welterweight but hasn't fought in over a year. Rousimar Palhares is serving a 2-year suspension for fighting dirty against Jake Shields.

In short, Welterweight is the most messed-up division in MMA, full of transients and the inactive. But in some ways it has the potential to be the most interesting division, too. With Diaz at least a temporary big name, Lawler a compelling belt-holder, and the possible return of GSP, the division's unpredictability might become an asset.