Once again, Alexander Volkanovski's foray into Lightweight has created a vacuum at the top of the Featherweight division, and if things go to plan then Rizin will have its first weight class champion after Saturday. Let me explain.
Volk's 2nd failed attempt to capture the Lightweight crown leaves him ranked #6 in that division, while Movlid Khaybulaev of the PFL moves into the vacant Featherweight top spot. This happened the last time Volk moved up to Lightweight (February 11, 2023); first Patricio Freire occupied the slot, but when he fought Sergio Pettis at Bantamweight (June 16), Khaybulaev finished his move from #3 to #2 to #1—and held the belt about 3 weeks, before Volkanovski returned to the division by beating Yair Rodriguez on July 8.
Khaybulaev didn't fight during his 22-day reign, but this year he's defeated Ryoji Kudo and Tyler Diamond.
Meanwhile, Freire jumped to lightweight to take on Chihiro Suzuki, a featherweight moving up just for that clash in Rizin. Rizin and Bellator have been doing several cross-promotions; Freire's win over Kleber Koike Erbst was a cross-promotion under the Rizin name.
Suzuki shocked people by winning that fight, Freire's 2nd loss in a row. Suzuki moved to the top 10 in the Lightweight division, but he's returning to Featherweight on the 4th against Vugar Karamov.
Karamov has won four in a row in Rizin on his way to a #8 overall ranking at Featherweight.
With the division's two former whales (Volk and Freire) currently ranked at Lightweight, the top of the division is very tight and Khaybulaev's reign will again be short. When Suzuki and Karamov fight on Saturday it will be for the SportsRatings Featherweight belt, as either winner will have enough points to get past Khaybulaev.
It will be the first time a Rizin fighter has occupied the #1 spot in any weight class on SportsRatings. When Freire was champ (Feb-June) he had technically last fought under the Rizin banner, but that was due to the cross-promotion where Bellator fighters came in for the event; everyone still identified Freire as a Bellator product.
But both Suzuki and Karamov have been with Rizin for years. Suzuki started with Pancrase in 2017, switched to kickboxing, then returned to MMA with Rizin in 2021. He has also competed in kickboxing matches with Rizin, winning the "KNOCK OUT Black Super Lightweight Championship" in March.
Suzuki (11-3 overall) lost his first MMA bout at Rizin but has won six straight since. He did lose to Kleber Koike Erbst, but that was ruled a No Contest by Rizin rules as Kleber missed weight. It was just after that where Suzuki beat Freire and catapulted himself to the top.
Karamov (19-4) competed in a variety of orgs before settling in with Rizin in 2020. He is 5-1 since then, losing to Yutaka Saito before winning 4 straight.
| Oct Rank |
Nov Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | October results; •November schedule |
| 2 | 1 | Movlid Khaybulaev | FW | 32.22 | 10-0-1 | PFL |  [new FW title holder] |
| 3 | 2 | Ilia Topuria | FW | 30.58 | 9-0-0 | UFC | |
| 4 | 3 | Movsar Evloev | FW | 30.20 | 12-0-0 | UFC | |
| 5 | 4 | Max Holloway | FW | 29.45 | 23-7-0 | UFC | |
| 6 | 5 | Kai Tang | FW | 27.04 | 5-0-0 | One | --last rated win -14 months. |
| 7 | 6 | Islam Omarov | FW | 25.48 | 7-0-0 | ACA | |
| 8 | 7 | Jesus Pinedo | FW | 25.13 | 4-1-0 | PFL | •11/24 vs. #37 Gabriel Braga |
| 9 | 8 | Vugar Karamov | FW | 24.79 | 5-1-0 | Rizi | •11/04 vs. #8 LW Chihiro Suzuki [for FW title] |
Current SportsRatings Featherweight rankings - November 2023
Whoever wins will have a short reign if the tentatively scheduled fight between Volkanovski and current #2 Ilia Topuria takes place. The winner of that fight will take over the #1 spot regardless of who wins the title tomorrow.
And if that fight gets postponed, then current #3 Movsar Evloev has a chance to be champ by beating #16 Arnold Allen—if Karamov holds the title at the time. Suzuki would remain ahead of both of those fighters if he is champ. Evloev probably gets the next crack at the title anyway, meaning he will face the winner of Volk and Topuria.
Former champ Max Holloway could get into the mix, if he ends up a replacement against Evloev or Topuria. It's unlikely the UFC puts him into position for another actual title shot, meaning another bout with Volkanovski. But he's gotta fight someone, and he's still high level enough to beat all the contenders.
So at Featherweight, the UFC, Rizin, and PFL all have potential champs—Bellator, too, if Freire returns to form. Other orgs have high-ranked Featherweights, too, but the competition level to rise to the top isn't there at ACA or One.
This demonstrates the lower risk/lower reward status of fighting outside the UFC or Bellator. It's easier to stay unbeaten for a long stretch, but harder to translate that into an overall #1 placement. Khaybulaev only became champ due to odd circumstance—the UFC and Bellator champs both leaving the division—and Rizin will only hold the belt for a few months, most likely.
Bellator is sort of an "in-between" in risk and reward; currently Vadim Nemkov holds the Light Heavyweight crown and Bellator's division there is competitive; but he may be passed by Alex Pereira if he beats Jiri Prochazka (both Nemkov and Prochazka fought for Rizin in the past, and Prochazka beat Nemkov there in 2015).
But Bellator will hold on to the Bantamweight crown when Patchy Mix challenges Sergio Pettis on the 17th. That will leave Bellator with at least one crown among the 8 weight classes, with PFL holding one and the UFC holding the rest.
And if Francis Ngannou makes his MMA return in the PFL, he will add a second crown to PFL's stash. Though by then the PFL probably won't have the FW title, and unless Ngannou fights a rated MMA opponent his fight won't count in our ratings. So if the Deontay Wilder rumors pan out, Francis will remain "inactive" at the top of the heavyweight rankings.
In any case, it does seem that the other orgs are making some progress to putting a dent in the UFC's dominance. We'll see if that lasts or if the UFC manages to corner the market on talent in the future. Given Ngannou's successful departure, they're going to have to try a bit harder.