Predictions for Year-end 2022 (and review of 2021 picks)

One year ago we issued predictions for who would hold the SportsRatings belts in every MMA weight class at the end of the year. Well we've reached the end of the year and our picks were...mixed. Not bad, but mixed.

Interestingly we see that some sportsbooks are now offering odds for year-end UFC belt-holders. Where did they get that idea? Hmm. (I really have no idea, they might have done this before, but without knowing for sure, I'm taking credit for inspiring them)

Anyway here we go again, this time reviewing and grading our picks from a year ago before issuing new picks for the end-of-year.

Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic  WC: #18 Ciryl Gane

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.22	10-2-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #3 Ciryl Gane
2	2	Stipe Miocic	HW	65.10	15-4-0	UFC	#6 Derrick Lewis?
3	3	Ciryl Gane	HW	40.11	8-0-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #1 Francis Ngannou
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	32.85	18-3-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Philip De Fries	HW	30.91	13-6-0	KSW	?

Last Year's Grade: B+

Ok, so Jon Jones didn't happen but our logic was sound: he would only need to win once to get the title, as opposed to Ngannou or Miocic who would need to beat Jones after cementing the title. Instead, Ngannou got the run-around and Stipe was inactive and Jones never fought. But we had the right idea and picked Francis to win the first fight. And our long-shot pick for Gane came as close as it could...he even garnered an interim UFC title.

This year's picks: Possible HW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Francis Ngannou  2) Ciryl Gane  3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: We're not one of those who think Gane is a shoo-in despite our strong support for him last year. And if he beats Ngannou, he'll probably fight twice more this year while if Francis wins, there's a chance he won't fight again, which would mean he holds the SportsRatings belt the rest of 2022. So it's as much math as anything else in what seems like a 50/50 fight: if Francis wins he's champ for 2022, if Gane wins he will defend twice more...probably against Stipe for one. There's really no one else active that has a good shot at the top. Hell, Philip De Fries is #5, fighting in the HW wasteland at KSW.

Long-shot/wild card: Jon Jones. We think he counts here now, a full year after not showing up anywhere. Who knows if he ever fights again, let alone at heavyweight? We think he'll be back and that probably means he'll fight at HW, so he can't be counted out. But he's a long shot this time around.

Vegas thinks: Ngannou, Gane, Jones. So they clearly put more stock in Jones showing up that I do, and kind of counting out Stipe, too.

Light Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira  WC: #10 Jiri Pochazka

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	72.62	20-1-0	UFC	Heavyweight?
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	52.68	9-2-0	Bell	[Interim LH title holder] #5 Corey Anderson
3	3	Glover Teixeira	LH	51.76	26-6-0	UFC	#9 Jiri Prochazka
4	4	Jan Blachowicz	LH	44.43	22-7-0	UFC	#15 Alexander Rakic
5	5	Corey Anderson	LH	32.06	11-4-0	Bell	#2 Vadim Nemkov

Last Year's Grade: C+

Izzy didn't come through for us and Jan fell by the wayside, but putting Glover #3 sort of redeems us as we were among the few who believed he might have a chance. But even in terms of our own ratings he didn't finish with the interim belt: that stayed with Vadim Nemkov who held it at the end of last year! We didn't think there was any way the Bellator fighter would have enough points to stay ahead of all the possibilities from the UFC, but he did as the perfect storm hit.

This year's picks: Possible LH champs for Jan 2023: 1) Vadim Nemkov 2) Magomed Akalaev 3) Jiri Prochazka 

Analysis: This time we're sticking with Vadim...which means he probably gets upset by Corey Anderson. Even if that happens, Anderson is unlikely to stay on top points-wise, but Nemkov could with a win. We also think that the boring, relentless Ankalaev has more chance of going undefeated in 2023 than the flashy, reckless, fun-to-watch Prochazka but the latter can't be counted out. Glover probably loses before the year's out, and Jan probably doesn't work his way back to the top.

Long-shot/wild card: Paul Craig. No one's paying much attention to "BearJew" right now but he's the kind that could have a surprise run to the top like Jan Blachowicz. Currently #12 in our rankings.

Vegas thinks: Prochazka, Teixeira, Rakic. Our last year's wild card is this year's Vegas fave, but Glover's not far behind. Interesting.

Middleweight

Last year's picks: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya   WC: Khamzat Chimaev

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Robert Whittaker	MW	54.79	15-5-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
2	2	Israel Adesanya	MW	53.63	11-1-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #1 Robert Whittaker
3	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	52.39	39-7-2	Bell	•2/25 #32 Austin Vanderford
4	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	34.21	24-2-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	34.06	7-0-0	Bell	[retired]

Last Year's Grade: A-

Well...what can we say? We got it just about right, with help from statistical fluke that puts Whittaker ahead of Adesanya. Though Izzy beat Whittaker in 2020 he lost his light heavyweight title try and the win over Vettori wasn't quite enough to outpace Whittaker's three wins in a row. Ideally Whittaker would be just behind Izzy but we got the pick right...technically.

This year's picks: Possible MW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Robert Whittaker  3) Gegard Mousasi

Analysis: This is another division—like heavyweight—where there is a clear top three (#4 and #5 are long retired). And Adesanya beat Whittaker convincingly last time and should do it again. Mousasi can stay within striking distance but that's probably it as his Bellator division is depleted.

Long-shot/wild card: If it's anyone else he's going to have to come from the UFC. We're going with erstwhile journeyman Chris Curtis, who has made more progress in the last two months than anyone. Possessing a journeyman's 28-8 record Curtis has come out of nowhere with upsets of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen.

Vegas thinks: Adesanya, Whittaker, Brunson. Same as us except Brunson; remember, they're limited to UFC fighters.

Welterweight

Last year's picks: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns  WC: #25 Sean Brady

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	96.04	15-0-0	UFC	#3 Leon Edwards/ #4 Vicente Luque
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	37.17	13-4-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?
3	3	Leon Edwards	WW	35.67	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
4	4	Vicente Luque	WW	31.98	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
7	5	Belal Muhammad	WW	31.46	15-3-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?

Grade: A

We can't really fault ourselves for putting Khamzat #2, after all it was Covid that delayed his entry into the WW sweepstakes and he still made a lot of progress, up to #11 in our rankings after fighting once last year. And Usman on top was a solid if obvious pick. Burns finished next highest, too. And our Wild Card Sean Brady made a name for himself jumping from #25 to #9. That pick was more impressive than calling on Khamzat like everone else; Brady wasn't on many radars at this time last year.

This year's picks: Possible WW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Kamaru Usman  2) Khamzat Chimaev  3) Leon Edwards

Analysis: Pretty much an exact replay. But not much has changed: Usman is still the best fighter in the world, and Chimaev is still the fighter with the most upward potential. No one is beating Usman of the current suspects. Leon Edwards is most likely, probably, to finally get another crack next.

Long-shot/wild card: Shavkat Rakhmonov. Another hyped prospect, but less well-known than Chimaev, Rakhmonov is 14-0 and might get a big fight if he's impressive vs. Carlson Harris (our #51 WW currently).

Vegas thinks: Usman, Chamaev, Edwards. Ok, but we had it first, last year basically. We were ahead of our time.

Lightweight

Last year's picks:  1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier  WC: GSP

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	88.87	15-0-0	UFC	[retired]
3	2	Charles Oliveira	LW	64.26	23-8-0	UFC	[interim LW title holder]  #4 Justin Gaethje
2	3	Dustin Poirier	LW	41.88	23-7-0	UFC	???
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.79	17-3-0	UFC	#2 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Beneil Dariush	LW	38.54	16-4-1	UFC	•2/26 vs. #6 Islam Makhachev

Grade: B-

Ok, we failed hard here but in a way we were right: McGregor got two shots at the top basically. And that was our logic—if he won he'd hold the title hostage; lose, and he'd get another try. But we ended up with Oliveira close to the top, and Dustin too. We punted on the Wild Card pick with GSP and it shows. Wild, though!

This year's picks: Possible LW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Islam Makhachev  2) Charles Oliveira  3) Beneil Dariush

Analysis: Is Islam inevitable? Sure looks that way. Even with a solid champ in Oliveira and tough competitor in Dariush, Makhachev, currently at #6, is a level above those grapplers. Geathje is the odd man out in likelihood to beat two grapplers, and Dustin's odds are hurt by the high probability that he either retires or takes some time off.

Long-shot/wild card: Arman Tsarukyan. Currently #24 at 14-1, he might be the only guy who can possibly beat Makhachev on the ground. His only loss is to Makhachev, but no one else will out-grapple him as he tries to get to the top for a rematch.

Vegas thinks: Oliveira, Gaethje, Makhachev. All three very close.

Featherweight

Last year's picks: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire  WC: Emmanuel Sanchez

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	59.86	15-0-0	UFC	#5 Max Holloway
2	2	A.J. McKee	FW	48.22	12-0-0	Bell	#3 Patricio Freire
3	3	Patricio Freire	FW	36.88	19-5-0	Bell	#2 A.J. McKee
4	4	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	32.39	8-0-1	Prof	?
5	5	Max Holloway	FW	30.63	21-6-0	UFC	#1 Alexander Volkanovski

Last year's grade: B

Well, Zabit never re-emerged like we'd hoped and the Featherweight division ended up much the same as it started 2021, with Volkanovski on top, but AJ McKee bumped Patricio Freire from the top of Bellator. Zabit has fallen to #10 due to inactivity and we're not betting the house on his return. 

This year's picks: Possible FW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Alexander Volkanovski 2) A.J. McKee  3) Max Holloway 

Analysis: There are two camps, UFC and Bellator, and simple math indicates that the winners of the rematches will be #1 and #2. The big question is can Volk beat Max a 3rd time, and can McKee beat Freire a 2nd time? The probable answer to both of those is yes, and with Max far behind on points he's 3rd most likely to end up on top.

Long-shot/wild card: #22 Ilia Topuria. Undefeated, just 24, and in a big fight early against our #6 Movsar Evleov? That gives him a chance to make a big move quick. Is he ready? Probably not this fast, but that's what makes him a wild card. The winner of this fight has a chance to fight for the title soon, and Evleov is too high-ranked to be listed as a long shot.

Vegas thinks: Volanovski, Holloway, Brian Ortega. Since they're rating just the UFC, McKee and Freire aren't in the mix.

Bantamweight

Last year's picks:  1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo  WC: TJ Dillashaw

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	53.69	10-2-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Aljamain Sterling	BW	44.62	14-3-0	UFC	[Interim BW title holder]
3	3	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	41.01	21-2-0	One	--last rated win -26 months.
8	4	Hiromasa Ougikubo	BW	36.36	21-5-1	Rizi	???
15	5	Sergio Pettis	BW	35.93	15-5-0	Bell	Bellator BW tournament

Last year's grade: A+

We award ourselves an ironic A+ because, well, we picked Sterling to hold the title and he does. We also picked Fernandes 2nd and he didn't lose. Neither did Cejudo! Of course Sterling won in less-than-honorable circumstances, Fernandes was idle all year and Cejudo remained retired. But our long-shot pick of TJ Dillashaw wasn't bad, as he made a successful comeback.

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) TJ Dillashaw  2) Petr Yan  3) Kyoji Horiguchi

Analysis: After our luck with Sterling, we see Yan winning the rematch. But we're still not sold on Yan's greatness, and Dillashaw might end up with our belt. Yan is currently #10 due to the DQ loss to Sterling while Dillashaw is #6 after his comeback. Ougikubo is a wild card due to fighting in Rizin, as he's milked most of the points possible from fighting in that org, and will probably lose in 2022 at some point. We also assume Cejudo is retired for good and that Fernandes has been too inactive at his age and will probably lose, too. The real question is: who will win the Bellator Bantamweight tournament? If we knew that, we'd usher that person to the top spot, but it's a tough pick among 8 fighters. We still have confidence in Kyoji Horiguchi who dominated Sergio Pettis until the one-elbow KO did him in.

Long-shot/wild card: Umar Nurmagomedov. Why not? He's just #22 and only 1-0 in the UFC but he's got the potential to make a lot of progress and get there some day. The Nurmagomedov-adjacent fighters move up slowly, though, so this is really a long shot for 2022.

Vegas thinks: Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling (tie) Aldo. Not too different than ours, really. Aldo's inclusion is interesting; we think his comeback run is coming to an end, but it would be great if it continues.

Flyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno  WC: Adriano Moraes

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Brandon Moreno	FL	34.66	9-2-2	UFC	•1/22 vs. #8 Deiveson Figueiredo
2	2	Adriano Moraes	FL	30.61	8-2-0	One	#5 Demetrious Johnson
3	3	Alexandre Pantoja	FL	24.69	10-3-0	UFC	Moreno/Figueiredo winner
4	4	Joshua Pacio	FL	24.38	5-1-0	One	?
5	5	Demetrious Johnson	FL	24.00	22-4-1	One	#2 Adriano Moraes

Last year's grade: B-

How were we to know that Mighty Mouse would be upset and Figueiredo would get beat soundly? We at least kept Moreno in the mix at #3—and had Moraes, who beat Johnson, as our long shot (he ended up #2). 

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Brandon Moreno  3) Askar Askarov

Analysis: Looking at the top five, it's about 50/50 whether the end-of-2022 champ comes from the UFC or One Championship. And we have to still believe that DJ is the cream of the crop there, whereas in the UFC it's less clear-cut: Moreno is a good possibility, as is Askarov. Pacio is really a Strawweight, but ranked here for lack of another weight class ranking; he probably can't amass enough points to get to the top easily.

Long-shot/wild card: Henry Cejudo. Yes we're out of ideas. This is probably the least likely weight class between FW/BW/FL for Cejudo to make his unlikely comeback in.

Vegas thinks: Moreno, Figueiredo, Askarov. Interesting that they include Askarov, too. So pretty close to how ours would look if we only listed UFC fighters.

 

Well that's it...see you in 2023 for a recap!