We're just getting into 2021 and the top players in each weight class are pretty well known. But a number of changes are coming, both from top dogs switching weight classes or retiring, to the inevitable upsets and changing of the guard. Here we look ahead to January 1, 2022, and project who will be on top in each weight class in our rankings.
For each weight class we'll look at our current top five and their most likely upcoming fights, then project the three fighters most likely to occupy the top spot a year from now. We'll throw in a long-shot/wild-card candidate too: either someone who is good enough to be a title holder but probably won't get a chance to prove it, or a fighter who is getting a shot but the odds are against them. Or just someone who might shake things up.
Heavyweight - over 205 lbs.
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Stipe Miocic | HW | 97.61 | 15-3-0 | UFC |  #2 Francis Ngannou |
| 2 | 2 | Francis Ngannou | HW | 50.86 | 9-2-0 | UFC | #1 Stipe Miocic |
| 3 | 3 | Daniel Cormier | HW | 40.66 | 18-3-0 | UFC | --retired |
| 4 | 4 | Curtis Blaydes | HW | 38.44 | 10-2-0 | UFC | •2/20 vs. #5 Derrick Lewis |
| 5 | 5 | Derrick Lewis | HW | 27.88 | 13-5-0 | UFC | •2/20 vs. #4 Curtis Blaydes |
Current top rated HW: Stipe Miocic
Current HW champion: Stipe Miocic (active thru August 15, 2021)
Possible HW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Jon Jones 2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic
Analysis: With Daniel Cormier retired the heavyweight division is a 2-man show right now, and the Miocic/Ngannou rematch will determine who reigns in 2021. But with Jon Jones entering the picture everything is up in the air. Assuming the top two fight first, with Jones meeting the winner, Jones is in the best situation to claim the belt. In other words, Jones just has to beat Miocic or Ngannou; Miocic and Ngannou have to beat the other contender AND Jones to be on top in 2022. Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis fight each other for the #4 spot, which is where they'll end up.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Ciryl Gane. If Jones doesn't fight for the belt in 2021, Derrick Lewis could get the call, but he's already in the top 5 so we're going with Gane (currently #18) as our long-shot; he's matched next with #10 Jairzinho Rozenstruik on March 13.
Light Heavyweight - 205 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Jon Jones | LH | 82.47 | 20-1-0 | UFC |  •remains champion until Feb. 9 •transitioning to HW |
| 2 | 2 | Vadim Nemkov | LH | 46.34 | 7-2-0 | Bell | #4 Ryan Bader/#5 Phil Davis |
| 3 | 3 | Jan Blachowicz | LH | 38.13 | 21-6-0 | UFC | •3/06 vs. #1 MW Israel Adesanya |
| 4 | 4 | Ryan Bader | LH | 33.22 | 21-6-0 | Bell | (?) #2 Vadim Nemkov |
| 5 | 5 | Phil Davis | LH | 29.25 | 17-5-0 | Bell | (?) #2 Vadim Nemkov |
Current top rated LH: Jon Jones
Current LH champion: Jon Jones (active thru Feb. 8, 2021)
Possible LH champs for Jan 2022: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira
Analysis: This division is wide open. The only thing we know for sure is that on Febuary 9th, Jon Jones becomes "inactive" and cedes the LH belt; Vadim Nemkov will then become interim champion. Other than that, it's up in the air. Will Jon Jones move to heavyweight? Will #1 middleweight Israel Adesanya fight at Light Heavyweight? The latter looks pretty certain for March, and the Izzy vs. Jan Blachowicz winner would become our outright champ the moment Jones makes the leap to HW. We favor Izzy but can't count out another Blachowicz miracle. Since #6 Glover Teixeira is considered an unofficial backup for the fight, and/or could face the winner, we put him #3. Bellator's LH division is solid, especially with the addition of Rumble Johnson and Yoel Romero, but no one will have the points to be on top as long as Izzy enters the fray at LH some time this year.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Jiri Prochazka. Anyone from Bellator could be here, but as noted the numbers are against them with Izzy in the mix. Instead we go with Prochazka, the latest hyped-up youngster (remember Johnny Walker?). Currently #10, Prochazka will have to prove he's the real deal against Dominick Reyes; a win there might propel him to a title shot before 2021 is over.
Middleweight - 185 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Israel Adesanya | MW | 70.74 | 8-0-0 | UFC |  • transitioning to LH •3/06 vs. #3 LH Jan Blachowicz |
| 2 | 2 | Robert Whittaker | MW | 53.77 | 14-5-0 | UFC | #8 Marvin Vittori/#9 Paulo Costa |
| 4 | 3 | Gegard Mousasi | MW | 49.81 | 38-7-2 | Bell | #11 John Salter |
| 3 | 4 | Georges St. Pierre | MW | 49.48 | 24-2-0 | UFC | --retired |
| 5 | 5 | Rafael Lovato Jr. | MW | 40.16 | 7-0-0 | Bell | --retired (medical) |
Current top rated MW: Israel Adesanya
Current MW champ: Israel Adesanya (active thru Sept. 26, 2021)
Possible MW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya
Analysis: This division is even more screwed up than Light Heavyweight. Israel Adesanya is moving up and he's already defeated #2 Robert Whittaker and other top candidates like #7 Derek Brunson and #9 Paulo Costa. Gegard Mousasi is tops in Bellator but he's out of top-tier opponents having vanquished #6 Douglas Lima while #5 Rafael Lovato Jr. is retired due to a worrisome brain condition. And if #4 Georges St. Pierre ever comes back it won't be at Middleweight. So our reasoning is this: Whittaker is guaranteed to be our title holder after March 6; he will probably defend against one of the other UFC contenders; if he loses, Mousasi moves into the top spot; and Izzy might decide to come back and defend the title, win or lose against Blachowicz. We only rank fighters at one weight class so if he stays at LH he won't be in the mix, but the rest is too hard to figure out.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Khamzat Chimaev. His next fight is at Welterweight so he's more likely to park there but with this division wide open, why not?
Welterweight - 170 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Kamaru Usman | WW | 83.00 | 12-0-0 | UFC |  •2/13 vs. #2 Gilbert Burns |
| 2 | 2 | Gilbert Burns | WW | 45.00 | 12-3-0 | UFC | •2/13 vs. #1 Kamaru Usman |
| 3 | 3 | Colby Covington | WW | 42.10 | 10-2-0 | UFC | #5 Jorge Masvidal |
| 4 | 4 | Leon Edwards | WW | 36.03 | 12-2-0 | UFC | •3/13 vs. #35 Khamzat Chimaev |
| 5 | 5 | Jorge Masvidal | WW | 30.34 | 33-14-0 | UFC | #3 Colby Covington |
Current top rated WW: Kamaru Usman
Current WW champ: Kamaru Usman (active through July 11, 2021)
Possible WW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns
Analysis: It's not that we're totally buying into the Khamzat Chimaev hype that we put him at #2—we just don't see any other challengers for Kamaru Usman on the horizon. He's defeated most of the rest of the top five; only Gilbert Burns still hasn't had his shot, so we put him at #3. But consider Leon Edwards' situation. Even beating Chimaev won't make him more likely to beat Usman in a rematch, and would either Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal improve on their losing efforts? Chimaev is only #35 in our rankings but a win over Edwards would move him into UFC title contention in short order, and at least we haven't seen that one played out yet. Let's face it, Usman's style isn't pretty but he does what he has to do to win, and as long as he stays at Welterweight he looks like the champ, making him the first one we project to still be on top come 2022.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Sean Brady. Given that we have Khamzat up at #2 it's hard to pick a big enough long shot, so we'll go really long with Brady, undefeated but unproven at #25. He's well-rounded and gets mostly decision wins; maybe that's what's needed to beat Usman's methodical style? He'd need to be a replacement fighter a couple of times to even get the chance though.
Lightweight - 155 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | LW | 91.53 | 15-0-0 | UFC |  • retired • remains champion until Oct. 25 |
| 2 | 2 | Dustin Poirier | LW | 49.62 | 21-6-0 | UFC | •1/23 vs. #5 Conor McGregor |
| 7 | 3 | Charles Oliveira | LW | 43.70 | 21-8-0 | UFC | (?) #4 Justin Gaethje |
| 4 | 4 | Justin Gaethje | LW | 39.19 | 16-3-0 | UFC | (?) #3 Charles Oliveira |
| 5 | 5 | Conor McGregor | LW | 38.28 | 14-2-0 | UFC | •1/23 vs. #2 Dustin Poirier |
Current top rated LW: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Current LW champ: Khabib Nurmagomedov (thru Oct. 24, 2021)
Possible (interim) LW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier
Analysis: Another case where the current champ won't be champ at the end of the year. Khabib Nurmagomedov is retired but still holds our LW title; he'll be our #1 ranked Lightweight for years and will be considered Champion until late October. At that point the 2nd-ranked fighter will be our interim champ, and that will most likely be current #5 Conor McGregor. We don't doubt #2 Dustin Poirier can beat him, but if he does, he'll defend his interim UFC title later in the year and might lose to #3 Charles Oliveira, who might have to get past #4 Justin Gaethje first anyway. So you see how McGregor's odds are the most favorable—it's easier to win one fight than two. If McGregor beats Poirier, we see him being awarded the outright UFC belt and sitting on it for the rest of the year while the UFC tries in vain to get Nurmagomedov back for a rematch. And McGregor will probably box one of the Paul brothers instead.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Georges St. Pierre. Now there's a wild card. If they can't get Khabib back, maybe they can get GSP to face Conor?
Featherweight - 145 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | FW | 58.99 | 14-0-0 | UFC |  #8 Brian Ortega |
| 2 | 2 | Patricio Freire | FW | 49.09 | 18-4-0 | Bell | #11 Emmanuel Sanchez |
| 3 | 3 | Lance Palmer | FW | 36.35 | 18-3-0 | Prof | (?) |
| 4 | 4 | A.J. McKee | FW | 31.07 | 11-0-0 | Bell | #2 Patricio Freire/#11 Sanchez |
| 5 | 5 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | FW | 29.28 | 9-0-0 | UFC | (?) #36 Yair Rodriguez |
Current top rated FW: Alexander Volkanovski
Current FW champ: Alexander Volkanovski (thru July 11, 2021)
Possible FW champs for Jan 2022: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire
Analysis: This one's complicated, too. Both UFC and Bellator big names are all in the mix. Let's eliminate #3 Lance Palmer, since he doesn't have much of anyone to fight in PFL when they finally reboot. In Bellator Patricio Freire will very likely be the opponent for AJ McKee in the FW Grand Prix finals, where McKee has a good chance of winning. But McKee won't have enough points to be ahead of every UFC fighter even with that win, so Freire gets our nod as most likely champ from Bellator regardless. The UFC probably holds on to the crown, either with Alexander Volkanovski or Zabit Magomedsharipov. We see Volk beating #8 Brian Ortega (has he really improved enough to beat the guy that beat Max Holloway twice?) and then Zabit coming back from inactivity to take the title.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Emmanuel Sanchez. No one expects Sanchez to upset Freire to make the Bellator Grand Prix finals, but he avenged his loss to Daniel Weichel in the quarterfinals, and a win over McKee in the finals would put him...probably not at #1, lots of other upsets would have to happen in the UFC. That's why he's a long-shot.
Bantamweight - 135 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Henry Cejudo | BW | 58.28 | 10-2-0 | UFC |  • retired • remains champion until May 10 |
| 2 | 2 | Bibiano Fernandes | BW | 47.76 | 21-2-0 | One | #15 John Lineker |
| 5 | 3 | Kyoji Horiguchi | BW | 40.38 | 27-3-0 | Rizi | (?) |
| 3 | 4 | Aljamain Sterling | BW | 39.73 | 13-3-0 | UFC | •3/06 vs. #5 Petr Yan |
| 6 | 5 | Petr Yan | BW | 28.15 | 9-0-0 | UFC | •3/06 vs. #4 Aljamain Sterling |
Current top rated BW: Henry Cejudo
Current BW champ: Henry Cejudo (thru May 9, 2021)
Possible BW interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Aljamain Sterling 2) Bibiano Fernandes 3) Henry Cejudo
Analysis: Petr Yan is UFC champ but only #5 in our rankings, one spot behind next opponent Aljamain Sterling. We expect Sterling to win that matchup, then beat the winner of Corey Sandhagen / Frankie Edgar and become the interim champ by the end of the year. If Sterling loses along the way, One Championship's Bibiano Fernandez might become interim champ; Fernandez has been at or near the top of our BW rankings for years. The wild card here is current (though retired) champ Henry Cejudo, who has been hinting at a comeback. He would probably fight at 135 and with his high rating any win would re-activate him as champ, and especially if it's a one-off fight Cejudo would remain champ until 2022.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: TJ Dillashaw. Dillashaw is the dictionary definition of a wildcard. Currently ranked as a Flyweight (since he fought there last) Dillashaw is returning from two-year suspension for EPO use. What fights will he get, and how will he do? No one knows, but some think he'll get a high-ranked opponent immediately.
Flyweight - 125 lb. limit
| Dec Rank |
Jan Rank |
Fighter | WC | Rating | Rated Record | Org | Probable Next Opponent |
| 1 | 1 | Demetrious Johnson | FL | 39.27 | 21-3-1 | One | [ inactive -14 months] •2/24 vs. #19 Adriano Moraes |
| 2 | 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | FL | 31.31 | 10-1-1 | UFC | [interim FL champ] #4 Brandon Moreno |
| 3 | 3 | Manel Kape | FL | 28.67 | 6-3-0 | UFC | •2/06 vs. #35 Alexandre Pantoja |
| 7 | 4 | Brandon Moreno | FL | 25.65 | 7-2-2 | UFC | #2 Deiveson Figueiredo |
| 4 | 5 | T.J. Dillashaw | FL | 25.53 | 11-3-0 | UFC | (?) probably at BW |
Current top rated FL: Demetrious Johnson
Current FL interim champ: Deiveson Figueiredo (thru Dec 12, 2021)
Possible FL interim/champs for Jan 2022: 1) Demetrious Johnson 2) Deiveson Figueiredo 3) Brandon Moreno
Analysis: Straight down the line, that's how we see the Flyweight division. Demetrious Johnson is inactive so he's not the champ, but we expect him to recover his title in February. If Mighty Mouse should falter then Deiveson Figueiredo can capture the outright crown for the first time by beating #4 Brandon Moreno in their rematch, which shouldn't be as close as the first fight. No one else, though, has as much of a chance to upset Figueiredo as Moreno, so we put him #3. Manel Kape is making his UFC debut and those rarely go well, and #5 TJ Dillashaw is not going to fight at Flyweight.
Long-shot/wild-card candidate: Adriano Moraes. Might as well make it someone who has a shot. Should Moraes upset Mighty Mouse he will probably have to defend at least once, if not give DJ a rematch, so even if he wins it's unlikely he'll hold the title come 2022. But there's a chance.