SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Cormier - what next for the winner?

When the Heavyweight Grand Prix tournament began, Strikeforce could reasonably claim a heavyweight division that was at least the equal of the UFC in terms of talent and competitiveness. Since the Zuffa buyout, major talents—Overeem, Werdum, Antonio Silva—have been promoted, and Fedor was dropped after his losses, leaving the UFC much stronger in the top weight class. But Strikeforce still has some great fighters, and two of them meet in the tournament final tonight: Josh Barnett and Daniel Cormier.

Cormier at #4 and Barnett at #7 are now the only Strikeforce fighters left in our Heavyweight top ten. Logically the winner should advance to the UFC, but can that happen?

Cormier trains with #6 Cain Velasquez, meaning that a matchup between the two might be hard to arrange. And of course Josh Barnett has simply not been welcome at the UFC for some time, and winning this tournament would probably mean he holds the Strikeforce belt and has to defend it. Alistair Overeem's recent testing snafu probably ruined any remaining chance for Barnett, as the last thing Dana White wants to do is welcome a 3-time positive tester back into the fold.

So this fight might really be for the Strikeforce belt and only the Strikeforce belt. After all, the UFC can't take every fighter, since White has said the promotion is going to continue for some time and not be absorbed into the UFC wholly.

The fight won't change our rankings much, either; Cormier is a fairly distant #4 and wouldn't move up any spots by beating Barnett; Barnett would simply replace Cormier at #4 with a win. The loser will fall to near the bottom of the top ten.

May Heavyweight rankings - fights through April 30th

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Alistair Overeem	HW	67.73	29-11-0
2	2	Junior dos Santos	HW	56.29	8-0-0
3	3	Fabricio Werdum	HW	53.07	14-5-1	Def Roy Nelson
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	42.79	6-0-0
5	5	Antonio Silva	HW	39.01	13-3-0	last win -14 months.
6	6	Cain Velasquez	HW	36.40	6-1-0	last win -18 months.
7	7	Josh Barnett	HW	35.73	30-5-0

Lightweight: #1 Melendez vs. #24 Thompson; Light heavy: #13 Kyle vs. #18 Cavalcante

The co-headline fight of the evening is Gilbert Melendez vs. Josh Thompson. Melendez is our #1 lightweight, outranking Benson Henderson by a decent margin. But he lacks strong competition in Strikeforce, and is taking on a fighter ranked just 25th in our book.

This lesser competition is why most rankings have Melendez 3rd or 4th behind Henderson and Frankie Edgar. That's where we'll have Melendez if he gets upset; he'd fall to #4, with Thompson moving up to #3, and Henderson at #1.

If Melendez wins as expected, he won't gain much in terms of points but he would avenge (for the 2nd time) one of the only two losses of his career. And the call for him to move to the UFC would increase, as he'd be on a 7-fight win streak.

The only other fight of interest in terms of our weight class rankings is Mike Kyle vs. Rafael Cavalcante in the light heavyweight division. While Strikeforce recently boasted great heavyweights and can still claim one of the very best light heavyweight fighers, the UFC clearly dominates the light heavyweight division. The winner of this fight will approach the top ten but won't quite reach it.

There is no current champ in that division for Strikeforce, which is reasonable since we rank no Strikeforce fighter in the top 7. Gegard Mousasi at #8 and Muhammad Lawal at #10 are the highest ranked for the promotion currently, and will remain so regardless of this fight's outcome.

Jon Jones up to #2 in pound-for-pound top 100; who is left to beat at light heavyweight?

Jon Jones moved on step closer to the #1 overall spot in the SportsRatings Top 100 MMA Rankings. Jones' win over former #5 Rashad Evans moved Jones ahead of middleweight Anderson Silva to the #2 spot, behind the injured welterweight Georges St. Pierre.

With St. Pierre expected to be out through the summer—and losing points due to inactivity—Jones might capture the #1 spot if he beats #5 Dan Henderson, who is slated to be his next opponent. In the meantime, however, Silva will retake the #2 spot from Jones if he beats Chael Sonnen in UFC 148 in July.

Three heavyweights are in the top ten: Alistair Overeem at #4, UFC champ Junior dos Santos at #6, and Fabricio Werdum at #8. All three were scheduled to fight in the all-heavyweight UFC 146 but Overeem tested positive for steroids and was kicked off the competition.

Lightweights Gilbert Melendez (#7) and Benson Henderson (#9) joined by featherweight Jose Aldo at #10. Rashad Evans fell to #11 and Frankie Edgar dropped from #10 to #17 after his loss to Henderson in UFC 144 in late February.

SportsRatings MMA Top 10 (overall/pound-for-pound) for May, 2012

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	February-April results
1	1	Georges St. Pierre	WW	95.06	20-2-0
3	2	Jon Jones	LH	83.33	10-1-0	Def #5 Rashad Evans
2	3	Anderson Silva	MW	82.07	26-3-0
4	4	Alistair Overeem	HW	67.73	29-11-0
6	5	Dan Henderson	LH	59.20	29-8-0
7	6	Junior dos Santos	HW	56.29	8-0-0
8	7	Gilbert Melendez	LW	56.10	19-2-0
9	8	Fabricio Werdum	HW	53.07	14-5-1	Def #344 Roy Nelson
25	9	Benson Henderson	LW	49.86	8-1-0	Def #10 Frankie Edgar
13	10	Jose Aldo	FW	43.06	13-1-0

Big movers in the top 100 include Carlos Condit—St. Pierre's next foe—who lept from #29 to #13 after beating former #12 Nick Diaz, and Eddie Alvarez who topped ex-#11 Shinya Aoki in Bellator 66 on April 20th. Alvarez jumped from #48 to #13.

Re-entry: Ryan Bader's win over Quinton Jackson in UFC 144 allowed him to re-enter the top 100 all the way up at #28, while Tim Boetsch's win over Yusin Okami put him back in at #73. Takanori Gomi made a huge jump from #239 to #83 by beating #70 Eiji Mitsuoka, but the biggest move was Mark Hunt's leap from #477 to #99 which resulted from his KO win over ex-#67 Cheick Kongo

The Weight Class Rankings: Featherweight

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Jose Aldo	FW	43.06	13-1-0
2	2	Dominick Cruz	FW	35.57	11-1-0
3	3	Hatsu Hioki	FW	27.88	17-3-2	Def Bart Palaszewski
4	4	Hiroyuki Takaya	FW	25.73	11-10-1
5	5	Bibiano Fernandes	FW	24.32	8-1-0

Jose Aldo remains #1 and hasn't lost in over 5 years; his next opponent is #19 featherweight Erik Koch in July. #2 Dominick Cruz takes on #8 Urijah Faber in June. Hatsu Hioki's win over Bart Palaszewski solidified his #3 standing but he's still a ways behind the top two; he fights Ricardo Lamas in June. Hiroyuki Takaya and Bibiano Fernades are close at #4 and #5 respectively.

Lightweight: Who is best, Melendez or Henderson?

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Gilbert Melendez	LW	56.10	19-2-0
4	2	Benson Henderson	LW	49.86	8-1-0	Def #2 Frankie Edgar
9	3	Eddie Alvarez	LW	39.71	17-3-0	Def #3 Shinya Aoki
2	4	Frankie Edgar	LW	37.54	9-2-1	Lost to #4 Benson Henderson
3	5	Shinya Aoki	LW	32.37	24-5-0	Lost to #9 Eddie Alvarez
5	6	Michael Chandler	LW	28.51	3-0-0

Gilbert Melendez remains our #1 lightweight, with new UFC champ Benson Henderson making it interesting after his win over Frankie Edgar, who falls from #2 to #4. Also making a big move up is Eddie Alvarez, who leaps from #9 to #3 as victim Shinya Aoki drops to #5.

Melendez next faces #25 Josh Thompson on May 19th, while in August Henderson and Edgar have a rematch. If Henderson wins that, he will be neck-and-neck with Melendez, who is hampered by having lesser quality competition in Strikeforce. In fact Bellator, which boasts Alvarez, Aoki, and undefeated Michael Chandler, has three of our top six lightweights. Chandler's recent win in Bellator 67 is not figured into the ratings yet.

Welterweight: Plenty of foes await injured St. Pierre

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Georges St. Pierre	WW	95.06	20-2-0
5	2	Carlos Condit	WW	42.48	20-5-0	Def #2 Diaz
3	3	Johny Hendricks	WW	33.41	8-1-0
4	4	Jake Ellenberger	WW	33.11	13-5-0	Def #14 Diego Sanchez
2	5	Nick Diaz	WW	31.46	20-8-0	Lost to #5 Carlos Condit
7	6	Ben Askren	WW	29.63	5-0-0	Def #13 Douglas Lima
6	7	Jon Fitch	WW	27.11	18-2-1	last win -14 months.

Georges St. Pierre's last win was on April 30, 2011, so he'll have points deducted starting next month, but he's so far and away #1 here that his inactivity won't even start to close the gap in any meaningful way. At #2, Carlos Condit awaits the matchup with St. Pierre that he earned by beating Nick Diaz. Diaz dropped to #5 as a result of the loss, and with it the long-anticipated Diaz-St. Pierre fight will have to wait even longer.

#3 Johnny Hendricks is another eventual St. Pierre foe. #4 Jake Ellenberger is on a 6-fight winning streak, while #6 Ben Askren is undefeated at 10-0 overall. This leaves a big backlog of opponents for St. Pierre when he returns, and before that there's sure to be some infighting that weeds out the challengers. #7 Jon Fitch was at one time looking like he'd get a quick rematch with "Rush" but his 12-second KO at Hendrick's hands in late December spoiled that idea.

Middleweight: It's Silva and Sonnen. No one else is important right now.

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Anderson Silva	MW	82.07	26-3-0
2	2	Chael Sonnen	MW	38.26	24-11-1
3	3	Mark Munoz	MW	29.15	7-1-0
4	4	Hector Lombard	MW	26.95	20-2-1
5	5	Luke Rockhold	MW	25.71	5-0-0
6	6	Vitor Belfort	MW	23.72	20-9-0
8	7	Siyar Bahadurzada	MW	23.59	8-1-0	Def Paulo Thiago
7	8	Chris Weidman	MW	22.14	4-0-0

When Chael Sonnen thoroughly dominated Anderson Silva in August, 2010 at UFC 117, for four rounds and three minutes before losing to a triangle armbar, it was clear that Sonnen had joined Silva at the top of the middleweight mountain, with no one else close. But in terms of rankings, a loss is a loss and Sonnen had to battle his way back to being #1 contender, defeating Brian Stann and Michael Bisping to get the July rematch in UFC 148.

If Sonnen wins there will be a rubber match for sure; if Anderson prevails, then some of the other fighters in the top ten will move up. #3 Mark Munoz faces #8 Chris Weidman in July, and the winner will have an inside track to Silva. #4 Hector Lombard moves to the UFC from Bellator, taking on the dangerous Brian Stann in August. Strikeforce middleweight champ Luke Rockhold is #5 and at some point should make the jump to the UFC if he keeps winning. #7 Siyar Bahadurzada joined the UFC in April, while #6 Vitor Belfort has been clamoring for a rematch with Silva since the last fight ended so suddenly with a front kick to Belfort's face.

But all of this is on hold until Silva-Sonnen II.

Light Heavyweight: Who is left for Jon Jones to fight?

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	83.33	10-1-0	Def #2 Rashad Evans
3	2	Dan Henderson	LH	59.20	29-8-0
2	3	Rashad Evans	LH	42.83	19-2-1	Lost to #1 Jon Jones
5	4	Mauricio Rua	LH	34.04	17-6-0
22	5	Ryan Bader	LH	31.00	6-2-0	Def #4 Quinton Jackson
6	6	Lyoto Machida	LH	29.55	14-3-0
4	7	Quinton Jackson	LH	27.33	24-10-0	Lost to #22 Ryan Bader
7	8	Gegard Mousasi	LH	25.40	21-3-2
10	9	Alexander Gustafsson	LH	23.68	7-1-0	Def Thiago Silva

#1 lightweight Jon Jones' next opponent will be #2 Dan Henderson. That part's easy. If he beats Henderson, who is left to challenge him? He's already beaten #3 Rashad Evans (just a few weeks ago in UFC 145), #4 Mauricio Rua (UFC 128), #5 Ryan Bader (UFC 126), #6 Lyoto Machida (UFC 140), and #7 Quinton Jackson (UFC 135). Unless you are clamoring for #8 Gegard Mousasi to make the jump from Strikeforce, or think #9 Alexander Gustafsson is actually ready to challenge Jones, there is not a foe on the immediate horizon in the lightweight division that Jones hasn't already vanquished.

Of course if Hendo finds a way to beat Jones things get interesting again, but Jones has truly "cleaned out the division" by beating all of the best fighters. If Henderson hadn't made a resurgence lately Jones would be reduced to fighting rematches or low-ranking opponents already. If the UFC is smart, they'll space out Jones' fights for a while until new challengers can emerge.

The other option is for Jones to move up to heavyweight, which Dana White rightly says is not a good idea yet.

Heavyweights: Overeem's steroid test tarnishes dream heavyweight UFC event

Feb Rank	May Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Feb-Apr Results
1	1	Alistair Overeem	HW	67.73	29-11-0
2	2	Junior dos Santos	HW	56.29	8-0-0
3	3	Fabricio Werdum	HW	53.07	14-5-1	Def Roy Nelson
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	42.79	6-0-0
5	5	Antonio Silva	HW	39.01	13-3-0	last win -14 months.
6	6	Cain Velasquez	HW	36.40	6-1-0	last win -18 months.
7	7	Josh Barnett	HW	35.73	30-5-0
8	8	Frank Mir	HW	34.71	15-5-0
9	9	Fedor Emelianenko	HW	34.26	26-4-0
10	10	Brock Lesnar	HW	24.78	4-2-0	last win -21 months.

The Alistair Overeem-Junior dos Santos match originally headlining UFC 146 would have established a true #1 between the former Strikeforce champ and current UFC champ, but it was not to be. Overeem shockingly tested positive for steroids between events—shocking not because Overeem is a PED user, which was laughingly obvious to anyone following the sport, but because he actually failed to beat the test.

So instead of Overeem, dos Santos faces #8 Frank Mir, another fighter whose weight makes rapid upward movements like Overeem's. But he hasn't tested positive so he gets his umpteenth title fight. It's not nearly as interesting, however.

Mir was supposed to fight #6 Cain Velasquez, with Roy Nelson facing #5 Antonio Silva; instead Silva and Velasquez will face off in a very interesting matchup. However, considering that #4 Daniel Cormier (who trains with Velasquez) recently defeated Silva, one can only expect Velasquez to do the same. Left off the card for some reason is #3 Fabricio Werdum, who beat Nelson in February.

Cormier's next fight will be on May 19 for the Strikeforce championship against #7 Josh Barnett—another past steroid user with three positive tests. This creates an interesting dilemma—can the winner jump to the UFC? Barnett has been persona-non-grata there for years, and Cormier might not fight training partner Velasquez.

Now in limbo, i.e. outside of the UFC/Strikeforce world which contains all the top heavies, is #9 Fedor Emelianenko, who will fight #25 Pedro Rizzo in June. #10 Brock Lesnar, Overeem's last opponent, is back in pro wrestling where the drug testing is, to say the least, pretty lax.

Mitchell nears heavyweight boxing top ten; Pulev-Dimitrenko on May 5th

Seth Mitchell had a first-round scare against Chazz Witherspoon but righted the ship and put his opponent away in the 3rd, and he climbs from #18 to #11 in this month's SportsRatings Heavyweight Top 100.

Mitchell is now 25-0 with 19 stoppages, no losses, and just one draw—since avenged—to blemish his record. He's 11-0 against ranked fighters, and has moved from #37 six months ago due to a solid win (TKO 2) over Timur Ibragimov and the Witherspoon fight.

He also solidifies his status as one of the very top American heavyweights, ranking 4th behind #6 Chris Arreola, #7 Eddie Chambers, and #9 Tony Thompson. Witherspoon (30-3) again drops off the top 100, but he'll surely bounce back as he did after losses to Arreola and Thompson. Witherspoon is becoming a gatekeeper in the mode of #20 Monte Barrett; fighters who beat him have a title shot in their future, while those who lose, don't.

Top-ranked American Heavyweights (in bold) as of May 1, 2012:

-3 Yr	-1 Yr	-6 mos	Apr Rank	May Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	April results / May schedule
6	15	12	6	6	CHRIS ARREOLA	19.86	19-2-0
7	8	5	7	7	EDDIE CHAMBERS	19.63	14-2-0	last win -14 months.
2	5	9	10	8	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	19.05	15-2-0	KO 3 #155 BILLY ZUMBRUN
19	12	11	8	9	TONY THOMPSON	18.68	17-1-0
26	4	8	9	10	DAVID HAYE	18.33	5-1-0	last win -17 months.
--	37	37	18	11	SETH MITCHELL	18.17	11-0-0	TKO 3 #46 CHAZZ WITHERSPOON

Two top ten fighters were in action last month: #4 Tyson Fury put away Martin Rogan in the 5th, while Ruslan Chagaev needed just 3 rounds to KO Billy Zumbrun. Fury's win helped create a smidge of distance between he and #5 Robert Helenius, while Chagaev gained a couple of spots. Three years ago this month Chagaev was at #2, while Fury was very green at #93.

Denis Boytsov (31-0) moved up a spot to #15 by winning a wide unanimous decision over Domonick Guinn. Only one judge gave Guinn a single round, a patter that held in his previous two losses, both of which were also to undefeated fighters (Amir Mansour and Kubrat Pulev).

Yet another undefeated prospect, Alexander Ustinov (27-0) climbed a notch with a victory over Jason Gavern. Ustinov has been in a holding pattern for over a year as he schedules mostly stay-busy fights.

Kelvin Price moved up 9 spots to #36, beating Arron Lyons, while Kevin Johnson leaped back into the top 100 at #39 with an April 1st TKO of former #32 Alex Leapai in Australia. Juan Carlos Gomez paid back Darnell Wilson for his earlier upset loss, regaining a bit of lost ground to #45. Joe Hanks' first-round KO of journeyman Marcus Rhode was good enough to put Hanks just outside the top 50, while Rhode's first stint in our top 100 came to a quick end.

Upcoming: Pulev-Dimitrenko, Airich-Solis, Price-Sexton

Mitchell may have fallen just short of the top ten but either #12 Kubrat Pulev or #13 Alexander Dimitrenko will get there after their May 5th showdown. Dimitrenko (32-1) resided in the top ten before his only loss to Eddie Chambers, while undefeated Bulgarian Pulev (15-0) has been moving up the charts rapidly since his debut in September of 2009. That was 2 month after Dimitrenko's loss, meaning Pulev has fought 5 times as often as Dimitrenko lately. We favor Pulev to get the win and the top ten ranking. Also on that card is #14 Edmund Gerber (19-0) who has a much more manageable foe in current #148 Maurice Harris.

Odlanier Solis, ranked #42 after his loss to Vitali Klitschko and subsequent inactivity while recovering from his knee injury, begins his comeback on May 19 as he faces #17 Konstantin Airich. Airich (23-5-2), was barely holding on to a top 300 ranking before he upset Ondrej Pala and leapt into the top 20 last month. He has won six fights in a row, against reasonable competition, so he should provide a decent comeback test for olympic gold medalist Solis, who needs to re-establish himself as a force on the heavyweight scene and prove that the layoff hasn't eroded his skills—or added to his weight problem. We expect Solis to win but will be watching his conditioning.

Also on the 19th another olympic medalist, the UK's David Price, ranked #24, faces off against #34 Sam Sexton for the British heavyweight title that #4 Tyson Fury gave up rather than face Price. Many believe Price would defeat Fury given the opportunity, but there are questions about Price's chin lingering from his amateur days. Sexton's chin has its own weaknesses, and Price's accurate punching will most likely expose them; we pick Price in a late stoppage. The two are fairly well-matched skillwise, but Price's reach gives him a big advantage.