SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

UFC 116 Results: Lesnar survives brutal first round, defeats Carwin in second

Brock Lesnar proved he can take a punch but Shane Carwin couldn't prove he can go more than one round in UFC 116, with Lesnar winning by an arm-triangle choke from the mount in round two and retaining the UFC Heavyweight title.

Lesnar Retains Title

The first round was all Carwin as he caught Lesnar with an uppercut that had Lesnar retreating and cowering before falling on his back. Pinned to the cage, he covered up as Carwin unleashed blow after blow to his face, opening cuts below both eyes. At times Lesnar was doing nothing more than keeping his hands by his face, but wisely the ref didn't stop the fight. After several minutes Lesnar was able to get to his feet and pin Carwin to the cage, where neither fighter had the strength to do anything. It was a clear 10-8 round for Carwin.

In round two, however, Lesnar quickly took Carwin down and methodically moved into mount position, with Carwin too tired to impede his progress. Lesnar left the mount and shifted to a judo side mount with Carwin's neck and left arm in a choke, which didn't seem to be locked on until it was too late for Carwin, who tapped.

In coming back from a near-death experience last year and surviving Carwin's full assault in the first round, Lesnar shows tremendous resiliency, and should gain respect among MMA doubters for his increasing use of technique in finishing Carwin. He also answered questions about his chin, which seems to be as solid as anyone's in MMA. He still needs work, as evidenced by his poor first round, but seems to be advancing in the sport, and "growing into" his role as the top fighter.

As for Carwin, he may turn out to be another fighter who falls hard after his first loss. Exposed as a fighter who can't go more than one round, and losing his aura of unstoppability, it's unlikely he will start another long winning streak. Of course, a lot of this has to do with the level of competition he is facing now, which is unlike the first ten fighters he fought. Still, the first loss seems to put doubts into fighters, and his career trajectory might follow that of Brett Rogers, a similar big puncher.

Leben Defeats Akiyama late

Yoshihiro Akiyama took the first round as both fighters had submission chances that didn't come very close, but Akiyama controlled the ground game. The second round was wild as both fighters traded shots that dazed the other, until both were nearly out on their feet. I scored this round a tie. The third round saw Akiyama taking down Leben and on top, which normally would give him the round and the win, but Leben started to score from the bottom, with dozens of repeated fists and elbows, that convinced me Leben deserved to win the round. As it turns out, this wouldn't have mattered as most had scored the fight 2-0 for Akiyama at this point. But Leben latched on a triangle that Akiyama couldn't escape from and won the fight. The triangle is really back in business lately!

Leben beats Brown with fantastic submission

Chris Lytle had by far the best submission of the night, beating Matt Brown in the second round. Lytle was caught in a choke while controlling on side mount in the first, but it was clearly not going anywhere when Lytle hadn't tapped after about 15 seconds. He broke free but probably lost the round as Brown used kicks well in standup, too. In the second round Lytle took Brown down and got mount, then side mount with a guillotine choke, and transitioned beautifully into a mounted triangle, which included a vicious arm bar that forced Brown to verbally submit as he was unable to tap (one arm in the triangle, the other being bent backwards by the armbar).

Bonnar toughs it out against Soszynski

Stephan Bonnar survived a tough first round, losing it clearly to Krzysztof Soszynski who wanted to go for the kill in the second round. But Bonnar caught him with a vicious knee that changed the fight completely, and Bonnar rained down punches until the referee stopped the fight.

Sotiropoulos beats Pellegrino

George Sotiropoulos cleanly won the first two rounds but got into a bit of trouble in the third, but not enough to put the outcome of the fight in question. In the end, two UFC judges scored it 30-27 for Sotiropoulos anyway. At the very end of the fight, Pelligrino knew he was down 2-0 and needed to finish, but he waited too long; with 5 seconds left he dropped Sotiropoulos with a knee and just as he was jumping on him to follow up, the fight was over. Had he acted 20 seconds earlier he might have had a chance of a huge comeback.

Undercard results

Brendan Schaub defeats Chris Tuchscherer in round one (punches)
Ricardo Romero defeats Seth Petruzelli in round two (armbar)
Kendall Grove defeats  Goran Reljic by split decision: 30-27, 29-28, 28-29
Gerald Harris defeats Dave Branch in round three by KO via body slam
Daniel Roberts defeats Forrest Petz by split decision
Jon Madsen defeats Karlos Vemola by unanimous 30-27 decisions

Preview & Analysis of UFC 116: Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

"ex"-UFC champ Brock Lesnar is ranked #3 by SportsRatings among heavyweights, interim champ Shane Carwin just 9th. But when they battle at UFC 116 tonight, for many it will determine the best Heavyweight MMA fighter in the world.

UFC 116 Main Card

#10 Brock Lesnar (#3 HW) vs. #38 Shane Carwin (#9 HW) (HW title fight)
#49 Yoshihiro Akiyama (#14 LH) vs. #167 Chris Leben (Light HW)
#213 Chris Lytle vs. #476 Matt Brown (Welterweight)
#614 Stephan Bonnar vs. #280 Krzysztof Soszynski (Light HW)
#111 George Sotiropoulos vs. #98 Kurt Pellegrino (Lightweight)

Heavyweight title fight

#10 Brock Lesnar (4-1; #3 HW) vs. #38 Shane Carwin (12-0, #9 HW)

Key points and questions regarding this fight:

• Has Lesnar recovered from his near-death experience? This is the main question of the fight. Lesnar needed an extended amount of time to recover from his ordeal, which has allowed his body to be fully recovered and trained, but it's been a while since he's been in the ring.
• Which is more important—competition level or experience? Lesnar's limited résumé (5 fights) lends to doubts as to whether he can survive a technical fight. That is, the longer the fight goes, the more unfamiliar situations he'll be in. Carwin, however, hasn't had that many more rounds (12 partial rounds, total) and the competition he's faced hasn't been as good overall. He has notched wins over Frank Mir and Gabriel Gonzaga, while in his short career Lesnar has faced Mir twice, Heath Herring, and Randy Couture.
  
• How much of a puncher's advantage does Carwin have? Carwin is mainly known for his punching, but Lesnar is no slouch in that area. Beyond his ground-and-pound, Lesnar caught Randy Couture with what was essentially a knockout punch. We also don't know who has a better chin, as neither has been extensively tested in that area. Both have eaten a few hard shots and come out unfazed.
• How much of a grappling advantage does Lesnar have? Like Lesnar, Carwin was a wrestler in college, but not nearly on the same level. How he'll do when the fight gets in the clinch or goes to the ground is key to his ability to win the fight, even if his grappling is just defensive.
• Who will win if stamina becomes an issue? Lesnar's overall health appears good, but again based on his bout with misdiagnosed diverticulosis and time off, his stamina may be an issue if the fight goes three rounds. On Carwin's part, he hasn't proven he can go for a second round, since he hasn't needed to yet. What happens in the later rounds is anyone's guess.
• Does size matter? Both fighters are huge; each is at least 6' 2", and both will weight about 265 for the fight. Lesnar has fought at around 280, and Carwin weighs about that "walking around." Both are very strong. One thing that might be settled is which fighter is actually taller; Lesnar claims 6' 3" and Carwin is sometimes listed at 6'4".
• Do we really know enough about either of these fighter to make a judgement? Everyone seems to have an opinion about who will win this fight, but with so few big matches between both of them, style differences, and issues regarding each's condition and stamina, I'm not sure any analysis can tell us what's going to happen with reasonable certainty. Overall I've never been impressed with Carwin, who overwhelms opponents offensively but doesn't have a lot of defense. Lesnar relies a lot on his size and power, too, but seems like he's trying to learn the complete game more.

Light Heavyweight bout: #49 Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, #14 LH) vs. #167 Chris Leben (20-6)

Time off vs. staying busy: One thing that stands out in this fight is how active (or not) each fighter has been. Akiyama took nearly a year between beating Masanori Tonooka in Dream 6 and defeating Alan Belcher in UFC 100. Now it's been almost another year. Leben, in contrast, fought just a few weeks ago, beating Alan Simpson in Ultimate Fighter 11. If readiness vs. ring rust is a factor, Leben has a shot. Otherwise, Akiyama should be a heavy favorite to beat an already-tired competitor.

Welterweight bout: #213 Chris Lytle (28-17-5) vs. #476 Matt Brown (11-8)

Youth vs. Experience: Chris Lytle is almost 36 and has been through a lot of fights. Brown is 29 and has a lot fewer. If father time catches up with Lytle he could lose, but otherwise experience should win the day. While Lytle's entire career includes recognizable opponents, Brown has had just five (2 wins, 3 losses) higher-profile fights in his career, including a loss to Lytle in 2007.

Light Heavyweight bout: #614 Stephan Bonnar (11-7) vs. #280 Krzysztof Soszynski (21-9-1)

History repeats: If that's the case, Soszynski should control the fight and beat Bonnar easily, like he did when they fought in UFC 110. Although the referee stoppage was poor, the decision in the record books accurately reflected the likely outcome. If styles make fights, this one will go much like the last. It's up to Bonnar to throw a wrench in the works.

Lightweight bout: #111 George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. #98 Kurt Pellegrino (16-4)

2nd best matchup of the night: Or at least it is on paper, featuring two quality grapplers. Pellegrino is coming off a solid 4-match win streak, while Sotiropolous has been cleaning up lesser foes. But Sotiropoulos has been unstoppable lately, and even his last loss (Shinya Aoki in 2006) was due to disqualification from a leg kick to the groin after an odd, leg-locked first round. This bout sends the winner to higher ground in the lightweight division.

Undercard

#235 Brendan Schaub (5-1) vs. #619 Chris Tuchscherer (18-2)
Ricardo Romero (10-1) vs. #826 Seth Petruzelli (12-4)
#315 Kendall Grove (11-7) vs. #248 Goran Reljic (8-1)
Gerald Harris (16-2) vs. Dave Branch (6-0)
Daniel Roberts (9-1) vs. #554 Forrest Petz (17-7)
Jon Madsen (5-0) vs. Karlos Vemola (7-0)

While Schaub should be a strong favorite, most the rest of the ranked fighters are ranked low for a reason and facing up-and-coming opponents, making the task hard for Petruzelli and Petz. Two fights feature less experienced competitors, with undefeated Dave Branch in his seventh fight against tough Gerald Harris, and undefeated fighters Madsen and Vemola squaring off.

Perhaps the best undercard fight is Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic. Reljic suffered his first loss recently against C.B. Dollaway, and Grove lost to Mark Munoz in UFC 112. With both fighters coming off losses, the winner gets another chance at becoming a main card fighter while the loser sinks further into MMA oblivion.

GSP #1 P4P After Fedor's Loss

After ruling the top of the MMA charts for the majority of a decade, Fedor Emelianenko's loss to Fabricio Werdum has—very narrowly—given us a new pound-for-pound champion: Georges St. Pierre. Fedor still holds on to the top spot in the Heavyweight rankings.

The SportsRatings MMA Top 100 includes fighters from all weight classes; in the 1990's when weight classes weren't fully instituted, it represented a free-for-all ranking of mixed martial artists from all the different promotions. Today, when weight class fighting is the rule rather than the exception, the MMA rankings can be thought of as a "pound for pound" comparison.

Fedor took over the top spot in March of 2003 after beating then-#1 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He continued to win and distance himself from the fighters at the #2 spot, who included Nogueira, Matt Hughes, B.J. Penn, Mirko Filipovic, Chuck Liddell, Quinton Jackson, and St. Pierre. Of these, Fedor defeated Nogueira twice and Filipovic once.

St. Pierre had been holding at the #2 spot for over two years, since beating Matt Serra in April of 2008. His record is now 20-2 (counting his initial win over Ivan Menjivar, ruled a no-contest at the time) and he's won seven straight fights, avenging both his losses (to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra).

The top spot isn't the only recent change in the SportsRatings MMA Top 100:

Apr Rank	July Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	April-June Results
2	1	Georges St. Pierre	WW	68.05	18-2-0
1	2	Fedor Emelianenko	HW	65.03	24-2-0	Lost to #40 Fabricio Werdum
4	3	Anderson Silva	MW	58.54	22-3-0	Def #51 Demian Maia
40	4	Fabricio Werdum	HW	58.32	13-4-1	Def #1 Fedor Emelianenko
7	5	Rashad Evans	LH	49.29	14-1-1	Def #5 Quinton Jackson
26	6	Mauricio Rua	LH	47.84	16-4-0	Def #3 Lyoto Machida
3	7	Lyoto Machida	LH	46.86	12-1-0	Lost to #26 Mauricio Rua
8	8	Jake Shields	MW	42.93	22-4-1	Def #18 Dan Henderson
20	9	Gilbert Melendez	LW	41.22	16-2-0	Def #6 Shinya Aoki
9	10	Brock Lesnar	HW	37.81	3-0-0
5	11	Quinton Jackson	LH	36.07	22-8-0	Lost to #7 Rashad Evans

Crowded at the top: Werdum bursts into the top 5 while Evans, Rua get big wins

Unlike boxing, where a winning always ranks above their victim, the MMA rankings are more forgiving of losses which come more often to the top fighters. Hence previous #40 Fabricio Werdum doesn't surpass Emelianenko, but still launches himself into the thick of the top-rated fighters. Anderson Silva slides up to #3 while previous #3 Lyoto Machida falls to #7.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, who handed Machida his first loss, jumps from #26 to #6, just behind Rashad Evans, who defeated former #5 Quinton Jackson. This kind of action—fights between top ten fighters—has become rare in heavyweight boxing, perhaps one reason MMA is growing its fan base at boxing's expense.

As noted, Emelianenko holds on to the #1 spot in the Heavyweight rankings

April Rank	July Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	April-June Results
1	1	Fedor Emelianenko	HW	65.03	24-2-0	Lost to #9 Fabricio Werdum
9	2	Fabricio Werdum	HW	58.32	13-4-1	Def #1 Fedor Emelianenko
2	3	Brock Lesnar	HW	37.81	3-0-0
3	4	Cain Velasquez	HW	35.16	4-0-0
4	5	Josh Barnett	HW	33.79	27-5-0	inactive 17 months.
5	6	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	HW	33.32	30-6-1
6	7	Junior dos Santos	HW	32.38	5-0-0
8	8	Mirko Filipovic	HW	26.33	21-7-2	Def Patrick Barry
7	9	Shane Carwin	HW	25.88	2-0-0
11	10	Alistair Overeem	HW	23.66	26-11-0	Def #20 Brett Rogers

Werdum leaps to #2, displacing UFC champ Brock Lesnar ahead of his July 3rd battle with Shane Carwin at UFC 116. Lesnar is not close to the top 2 in rating points and Carwin is only 9th among heavyweights; this is due to the limited résumé of both fighters, who have a combined 5 rated wins among them. Lesnar (or Carwin) will have to put together a string of wins to move up, regardless of whether they (or Fedor or Werdum) are really the best heavyweights in the business. In this game where fighters with short win streaks come and go, only consistency can separate one from the pack.

Strikeforce champ Alistair Overeem is only the 10th ranked heavyweight; his career is spotted with losses throughout. While he's put together a good string of wins—eight in a row—few of them have been over highly-ranked foes. He beat Mirko Filipovic with knees to the groin resulting in a no-contest, and even his recent impressive win over Brett Rogers didn't mean much in terms of rating points.

The Light Heavyweight rankings are also notable for the key fights that took place these last few months. It's the most interesting and competitive division right now.

Apr Rank	July Rank	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	April-June Results
3	1	Rashad Evans	LH	49.29	14-1-1	Def #2 Quinton Jackson
8	2	Mauricio Rua	LH	47.84	16-4-0	Def #1 Lyoto Machida
1	3	Lyoto Machida	LH	46.86	12-1-0	Lost to #8 Mauricio Rua
2	4	Quinton Jackson	LH	36.07	22-8-0	Lost to #3 Rashad Evans
4	5	Chael Sonnen	LH	34.71	19-10-1

With Evans narrowly on top, a battle with UFC #1 Rua will be a great draw. Machida is still in the mix, having only one loss and owning a win over Evans. Jackson may or may not be relevant after his loss to Evans, but can't be counted out if he persues fighting again rather than acting.

In the other weight classes:

• Anderson Silva continues his reign as Middleweight champion
• Georges St. Pierre, of course, has a huge lead at Welterweight, with Strikeforce champ Jake Shields a very distant 2nd
• at Lightweight, Gilbert Melendez takes over at #1 after beating Shinya Aoki. Frankie Edgar's win over B.J. Penn puts him at #2.