How much does four years out of the ring mean? That is the question that will be answered Saturday when Vitali Klitschko (35-2) challenges Samuel Peter (30-1) for his WBC title.
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Klitschko is the better boxer, hits nearly as hard, and has an even better chin than Peter. In his prime the fight would be no contest. But Vitali's four years out of the ring—as well as his injury-prone body—make this fight interesting.
Not that Peter doesn't have skills of his own. He's lost only one fight—to Vitali's brother—and has knockout power nearly unmatched in the world of boxing today. But his shortcomings have mostly been hidden, at least until the Jameel McCline fight, when the aging ex-fringe-contender dropped Peter three times in the first three rounds before losing a close but unanimous decision.
The question for Klitschko is: what does a fighter lose from inactivity? An iron chin does not go away, and Vitali has never been knocked out; both his losses were due to injuries, and he took explosive shots from Lennox Lewis all night during that fight. Nor does one's power go away if in shape, and all indications are that Vitali is in great shape for the fight.
What suffers from a layoff is timing. On both offense and defense, Vitali's timing won't nearly be as honed as it was when he fought regularly. On offense it won't matter much, as Peter has always been fairly easy to hit. But on defense, he runs the risk of getting clubbed by one of Peter's wild shots. Klitschko, too, is fairly easy to hit, as he often prefers to slug it out, squared up, with his opponent.
So really the layoff doesn't change much, except to amplify his weakness of getting hit. But his iron chin reduces that problem, and his main defense—his height, which makes his head difficult to reach—hasn't changed. Likewise Peter's lack of mobility offsets Vitali's offensive timing problems. But he may not be as able to land hard punches flush, and may get tagged by some hard shots, and that makes the fight a question mark.
Here's how I see the fight going, round by round:
Rounds 1-3: The first few rounds could see either or both fighters knocked down. These will be Vitali's first rounds of boxing in almost four years. He would be wise to start slow and get his timing down, especially on defense, but he may choose to come out swinging. In that case he might get caught and floored for the first time in his career, but he won't be KOed. Peter, too, is vulnerable if he goes for an early kill, as the McCline fight clearly showed. But he will get up as well. These rounds will be pretty even.
Rounds 4-6: This is where Klitschko has his biggest advantage. After working through three rounds, feeling out Peter and getting his timing down, he is ready to take advantage of Peter, who will tire after the initial rounds. Klitschko will have much better conditioning and will dodge Peter's punches and land counters, and will start to become the aggressor if he wasn't from the beginning. There is a very good chance that Klitschko will end the fight in one of these rounds.
Rounds 7-9: If he can weather the storm of the previous rounds, Peter is in his best position to score an upset in rounds 7-9. Klitschko will start to tire in the 2nd half of the fight as the wear and tear of taking Peter's shots, launching his own attack, and clinching with the 250 lb. fighter will take its toll on Vitali's injury-prone body. He will slow down a bit, and Peter will have a puncher's chance to take him out. It's not likely that Peter will score a knockout, but a TKO is possible if through some method Vitali injures a shoulder or knee that begins to hamper him. Maybe Peter will fall on him during a clinch. Anything is possible.
Rounds 10-12: If the fight has gone this long I think both fighters will be out of gas. And that favors Klitschko once again. Past the 9th round, he won't KO Peter but he will win an easy decision. Peter will clinch, rabbit punch, and occasionally go for the 1-punch knockout but mostly will be inactive, taking shots from Klitschko but not going down. By this point Vitali's punches will have lost their sting, but he will get his 2nd wind and keep scoring easily.
Here is a rough sketch of my take on the odds of the above occurring:
30% Klitschko KO Peter in rounds 4-6
30% Klitschko unanimous decision Peter
20% Peter TKO Klitschko rounds 7-9
5% Klitschko KO Peter rounds 1-3
5% Peter KO Klitschko rounds 1-3
10% result other than above
So nominally I assign Vitali Klitschko a 70% chance of winning on Saturday.
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