SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Vitali Klitschko - Sam Peter results: Don't read if you're watching on Showtime later :)

If you want to see the results of the fight, keep reading.

If you are watching the fight tonight on Showtime, stop reading! Warning, spoilers ahead!!! (This is assuming you got here from a search engine and you can read the first few lines of this article)

Vitali Klitschko re-entered the arena of the heavyweight division's elite by defeating Sam Peter, who didn't answer the bell for the 9th round.

Klitschko showed little if any "ring rust" while Peter showed little if any defense or strategy that could have helped him have a chance against the much taller ex-champ. Klitschko may have won all eight rounds before the stoppage, and Peter's face showed the effects of Vitali's punches. The scores were announced after the 4th and 8th round; the judges all gave Klitschko the first four rounds, and two of the three gave him the next four as well.

The win will likely propel Vitali to fourth place in next month's SportsRatings Top 100, barely ahead of #5 Alex Povetkin, who faces Vitali's brother and heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko in December. Sam Peter falls from #3 to #7 just behind Juan C. Gomez, who moved up to #6 this month after defeating former #8 Vladimir Virchis in October.

Here's a look at how the top ten stood for this month, before the fight:

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	60.17	35-3-0
2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	46.09	10-0-0
3	3	SAMUEL PETER	38.07	16-1-0
4	4	NICOLAY VALUEV	37.89	21-1-0
5	5	ALEX POVETKIN	33.33	11-0-0
9	6	JUAN C GOMEZ	28.06	9-1-0	Won UD #8 VLADIMIR VIRCHIS
6	7	CHRIS ARREOLA	26.06	10-0-0
7	8	DAVID TUA	25.36	28-3-1	inactive 13 months.
10	9	JOE MESI	21.47	15-0-0
11	10	HASIM RAHMAN	21.39	17-6-2

Note that Vitali Klitschko had recently dropped out of the top ten due to inactivity. Here is a look at what the top ten may look like next month:

old num  Fighter             record    rating
  1   1. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (35- 3- 0)   60.17
  2   2. RUSLAN CHAGAEV    (10- 0- 0)   46.09
  4   3. NICOLAY VALUEV    (21- 1- 0)   37.89
 11   4. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (21- 2- 0)   33.46 W9 #3 SAMUEL PETER    
  5   5. ALEX POVETKIN     (11- 0- 0)   33.33
  6   6. JUAN C GOMEZ      ( 9- 1- 0)   28.06
  3   7. SAMUEL PETER      (16- 2- 0)   26.92 L9 #11 VITALI KLITSCHKO
  7   8. CHRIS ARREOLA     (10- 0- 0)   26.06
  8   9. DAVID TUA         (28- 3- 1)   25.09 inactive 14 months.
  9  10. JOE MESI          (15- 0- 0)   21.47

The win by Vitali Klitschko may end the dream of a unified belt for now. Vitali captures the WBC belt, while his brother holds the IBF and WBO belt. Until Vitali retires—and his plans at this time are unknown—the belts will likely remain with he and his brother, barring a major upset. The two have said they won't fight each other.

As for the SportsRatings belt, Vitali has a long way to go if he wants to wrest it from his brother without fighting him. Unless Wladimir loses to Alex Povetkin, Vitali could defeat both #2 Ruslan Chagaev and #3 Nicolay Valuev and still not pass Wladimir for the top spot. In general, to rank ahead of the man you have to beat the man...

Vitali Klitschko - Sam Peter preview

How much does four years out of the ring mean? That is the question that will be answered Saturday when Vitali Klitschko (35-2) challenges Samuel Peter (30-1) for his WBC title.

Klitschko is the better boxer, hits nearly as hard, and has an even better chin than Peter. In his prime the fight would be no contest. But Vitali's four years out of the ring—as well as his injury-prone body—make this fight interesting.

Not that Peter doesn't have skills of his own. He's lost only one fight—to Vitali's brother—and has knockout power nearly unmatched in the world of boxing today. But his shortcomings have mostly been hidden, at least until the Jameel McCline fight, when the aging ex-fringe-contender dropped Peter three times in the first three rounds before losing a close but unanimous decision.

The question for Klitschko is: what does a fighter lose from inactivity? An iron chin does not go away, and Vitali has never been knocked out; both his losses were due to injuries, and he took explosive shots from Lennox Lewis all night during that fight. Nor does one's power go away if in shape, and all indications are that Vitali is in great shape for the fight.

What suffers from a layoff is timing. On both offense and defense, Vitali's timing won't nearly be as honed as it was when he fought regularly. On offense it won't matter much, as Peter has always been fairly easy to hit. But on defense, he runs the risk of getting clubbed by one of Peter's wild shots. Klitschko, too, is fairly easy to hit, as he often prefers to slug it out, squared up, with his opponent.

So really the layoff doesn't change much, except to amplify his weakness of getting hit. But his iron chin reduces that problem, and his main defense—his height, which makes his head difficult to reach—hasn't changed. Likewise Peter's lack of mobility offsets Vitali's offensive timing problems. But he may not be as able to land hard punches flush, and may get tagged by some hard shots, and that makes the fight a question mark.

Here's how I see the fight going, round by round:

Rounds 1-3: The first few rounds could see either or both fighters knocked down. These will be Vitali's first rounds of boxing in almost four years. He would be wise to start slow and get his timing down, especially on defense, but he may choose to come out swinging. In that case he might get caught and floored for the first time in his career, but he won't be KOed. Peter, too, is vulnerable if he goes for an early kill, as the McCline fight clearly showed. But he will get up as well. These rounds will be pretty even.

Rounds 4-6: This is where Klitschko has his biggest advantage. After working through three rounds, feeling out Peter and getting his timing down, he is ready to take advantage of Peter, who will tire after the initial rounds. Klitschko will have much better conditioning and will dodge Peter's punches and land counters, and will start to become the aggressor if he wasn't from the beginning. There is a very good chance that Klitschko will end the fight in one of these rounds.

Rounds 7-9: If he can weather the storm of the previous rounds, Peter is in his best position to score an upset in rounds 7-9. Klitschko will start to tire in the 2nd half of the fight as the wear and tear of taking Peter's shots, launching his own attack, and clinching with the 250 lb. fighter will take its toll on Vitali's injury-prone body. He will slow down a bit, and Peter will have a puncher's chance to take him out. It's not likely that Peter will score a knockout, but a TKO is possible if through some method Vitali injures a shoulder or knee that begins to hamper him. Maybe Peter will fall on him during a clinch. Anything is possible.

Rounds 10-12: If the fight has gone this long I think both fighters will be out of gas. And that favors Klitschko once again. Past the 9th round, he won't KO Peter but he will win an easy decision. Peter will clinch, rabbit punch, and occasionally go for the 1-punch knockout but mostly will be inactive, taking shots from Klitschko but not going down. By this point Vitali's punches will have lost their sting, but he will get his 2nd wind and keep scoring easily.

Here is a rough sketch of my take on the odds of the above occurring:

30% Klitschko KO Peter in rounds 4-6
30% Klitschko unanimous decision Peter
20% Peter TKO Klitschko rounds 7-9
5% Klitschko KO Peter rounds 1-3
5% Peter KO Klitschko rounds 1-3
10% result other than above

So nominally I assign Vitali Klitschko a 70% chance of winning on Saturday.

Gina Carano Nude Weigh-In Videos

Gina Carano didn't make weight for her EliteXC bout, so she had to strip naked and try again. She shed her clothes but lost only 1/4 pound, but somehow, weighed yet again, she miraculously loses 1.5 pounds.

A few lucky guys got to hold towels in front of her for the weigh-in.

In the next video you can see the towel drop and her hand over her breast. For some reason one of the guys thought it made sense to hold the towel with his teeth. I'd fire that guy if I were Gina.

Finally here's a CBS-sourced video, since the others might get pulled at any time. Strangely it's the lowest-quality video of the bunch, with the weight results barely audible.

Don't ever let it be said that I don't know what the MMA public wants to see.