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Saturday night—mid-afternoon in the States—Wladimir Klitschko will defend his IBF and WBO titles (as well as the #1 ranking in the SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 100) against Tony "The Tiger" Thompson.
Thompson is a good boxer who has quietly worked his way up the rankings primarily by not losing. The 37 year old Thompson hasn't dropped a professional bout in eight years, to Erick Kirkland in only his fight. He did lose a decision in November of 2002 to Maurice Harris in the finals of the Thunderbox Heavyweight Tournament. The bout was only 3 rounds, however, and all fights were deemed exhibitions. Either way, Thompson has a long winning streak.
But there aren't many big names on his victims list. The first ranked fighter he beat was then-undefeated Chester Hughes in May of 2001, making him 10-1 and putting him in the SportsRatings Top 100. It was more than a year until he fought another "name" fighter, Ron Guerrero in August of 2002, landing him just outside the Top 50 at 16-1. Dispatching Zuri Lawrence put him near the top 30; in 2003 he beat James Gaines, Gilbert Martinez, and Onebe Maxime in succession but advanced little, as all of them ranked far lower.
In 2004 he handed Yanqui Diaz his first loss early in his career, then treaded water with wins over Augustin Corpus and Vaughn Bean. A full year later, KOing Willie Perryman in the fifth and Maurice Wheeler in the fourth allowed him to slip into the top 25, but still hadn't had a fight that would make people really take notice.
In June of 2006 he beat Dominick Guinn, then 26-3-1, and followed that with an early 2007 decision over Timor Ibragimov (21-1-1). He KOed Luan Krasniqi, then 30-2-1, to slip into the top ten. All of these were impressive wins, though none was superlative. But as other fighters fell out of the top ten for losing and for inactivity, Thompson found himself at #6, and when Wladimir Klitschko took the WBO title, Thompson was in line for a title shot as WBO's #2 ranked fighter.
Thompson is tall (nearly 6'5") and is a southpaw. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well but wears other fighters down eventually. He has the size and style to compete with Klitschko, but does he have a realistic shot of winning, either by KO or decision? A Thompson win is a decided longshot. He doesn't hit as hard as Wlad, nor is he quite as good technically. It's hard to think of a good strategy for him to use in the fight; be conservative, and Klitschko will jab him to death; take chances and get picked apart by the better fighter. He won't have the height advantage he's used to, and the reaches are about the same.
Taking chances, and taking Klitschko out of his conservative game that he used to dominate Ibragimov, may be the better route. Wlad has shown that he is vulnerable when hit, and being conservative probably won't lead to many opportunities for the Tiger. The problem is, Thompson doesn't take many chances in the ring. While not the most conservative fighter, he seems content to outbox his opponent, confound them as a southpaw, and take his opportunities when they come rather than create them. Against Klitschko this probably won't work.
There is always the chance for an upset. They seem to occur most often when least expected. Few are giving Thompson a chance in this bout. It is agreed that he's earned his shot, that he's put in his time, and deserves the big payday. He's a solid boxer and has never been knocked out, but his resume doesn't included any fighters near the level of Wladimir Klitschko. Faced with a taller, much better opponent, he will likely be out of his league on Saturday. Thompson, a fighter who has built his ranking mainly on not losing, rather than beating big names, will have an uphill battle tomorrow.
Should he prevail, he will narrowly take over the number one spot in the rankings. But I expect Wladimir Klitschko to remain on top. The fight is being televised on HBO at 4:30pm eastern time.
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