SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Vitali Klitschko/Sam Peter set for October 11; Sam/Vidoz results changed

It's official: Samuel Peter will fight Vitali Klitschko on October 11th in Berlin barring pre-fight injury. Peter is ranked #3 by SportsRatings and #2 by Ring, FightNews, and BoxRec. Klitschko, who hasn't fought in over 3 1/2 years, is currently ranked #10 by SportsRatings and is unranked by almost all other organizations after having retired officially in November of 2005. He is still the 'champion emeritus' of the WBC, and has made several attempts to 'unretire' that have ended in training injuries.

In terms of ratings, Klitschko has a lot more to gain than Peter. A win would jump him back into the top 5 and give him the WBC belt. A win by Peter wouldn't change his #3 ranking, as Klitschko's point value is falling every month from inactivity, and by the time the fight comes off he'll barely be in the top 20. However, beating Vitali would likely lead to a unification rematch with brother Wladimir. It would also gain him a lot of respect in the boxing world, and in many people's eyes make him the true lineal heavyweight champion.

Verdict changed in Sam/Vidoz fiasco

In other 'Sam' news, the result of the Sinan Samil Sam/Paolo Vidoz bout, originally a majority draw, was changed to a majority decision win for Sam. One judge's scorecard was changed from a 114-114 draw to 115-114 for Sam after a European Boxing Union investigation determined that the judge had meant to score the final round 10-10 instead of 10-9 for Vidoz. The investigation came after vehement protestation from controversial promoter Ahmet Ohner on the night of the contest.

The change, of course, doesn't make the results any better; most people thought Vidoz, not Sam, narrowly won the fight. And a draw was perhaps the most satisfying result in this case, where neither fighter looked good enough to deserve a win (and with it, a possible step back into higher profile fights). A draw would have kept these two where they probably belong, in the lower half of the SportsRatings Top 100; instead, Sam will jump into the top 35, while Vidoz is surely out of the top 100. Who ever said boxing was fair?

Some interesting rankings: Chagaev, Dimitrenko, David Haye

The SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 100 is determined by formula; therefore, only the algorithm itself can be said to bias the results. Its main "bias" is that the degrees of win or loss does not matter; winning by a first round KO or split decision is the same in its eyes.

But the various boxing organizations determine their rankings by a number of factors, some of which are political. For example, most organizations fail to list any beltholder from the other organizations. This leads to some interesting omissions, such as Wladimir Klitschko being absent from the WBA or WBC top 15.

There are a number of other interesting questions concerning the SportsRatings rankings as contrasted to the belt rankings.

Why is Ruslan Chagaev ranked #2 by SportsRatings?

Chagaev is being criticized lately for not fighting much. He's suffered several injuries, including a Hepititis B infection that cancelled his fight with Sultan Ibragimov last year, laryngitis which delayed his rematch with Nicolay Valuev, and finally a torn achilles' tendon which cancelled that fight for the foreseeable future. His last bout was a win over Matt Skelton in January, his only defense since beating Valuev for the WBA title in April of 2007.

Ruslan Chagaev is the WBA titleholder, while Samuel Peter holds the WBC title. Nearly everyone who ranks heavyweight boxers puts IBF/WBO beltholder Wladimir Klitschko #1. SportsRatings, Boxrec.com, Fightnews.com, and Ring Magazine all agree on this; yet the latter three put Samuel Peter at #2, one spot ahead of Chagaev. So, why does the SportsRatings algorithm put Chagaev ahead?

A look at Chagaev's record—apart from his recent woes and inactivity—tells the story. Chagaev has defeated four of this month's top 25 fighters, more than anyone else in the list (though Klitschko also has four after beating Tony Thompson). Samuel Peter, by contrast, has beaten only one fighter in the top 25, Oleg Maskaev.

Further, Chagaev has handed two top-25 boxers their only losses. He is the only fighter to beat #9 Vladimir Virchis, and the only one to defeat #4 Nicolay Valuev. Of other top fighters, only Klitschko (who beat #3 Sam Peter and #18 Sultan Ibragimov) can claim this.

With these several big wins, Chagaev gets a lot of points in the SportsRatings system, enough to put him at #2 well ahead of Sam Peter. But most of these fights were very close; Chagaev won mixed decisions over Valuev and Virchis, and a split decision over #14 John Ruiz. The fact that any of these fights could have gone the other way is one good reason most people put Peter ahead of Chagaev.

Why is Alex Dimitrenko ranked so high by the belt organizations?

Most boxing fans have never seen Alex Dimitrenko fight. Yet he is ranked—get this—#2 WBO, #3 IBF, #4 WBC, and #5 WBA. That's right, top five in all four organizations. And he'll likely be the #1 WBO contender now that Tony Thompson has lost.

Compare this to his rankings in non-belt ratings: At SportsRatings we have him at #15; BoxRec.com puts him #10; Fightnews.com he is #8; and Ring Magazine does not list him among the top ten heavyweights. So why do the belt organizations love him so?

Despite being undefeated, his record doesn't bear out a top five ranking; it's debatable as to whether anyone he's beaten is still a top 100 fighter (none our by our list). His last two wins, over Derrick Rossy and Timo Hoffman, are his most impressive wins.

The 6' 7', 250 pound Ukrainian is a prospect for sure, and having him in the top ten isn't unreasonable. Further, since the belt organizations don't list other champions, all contenders are moved up a couple of slots, pushing everyone up a couple slots (plus one again, because they essentially start counting at zero). But does he deserve to be ranked higher than Chris Arreola, another undefeated prospect who is ranked 9th, 10th, 7th, and 12th by the same belts than put Dimitrenko 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th?

I don't believe so.

Why is David Haye #5 at the WBC?

Haye is moving up to the heavyweight division and is scheduled to fight in October. For about a week, it appeared that his opponent would be Oleg Maskaev; that rumor has been squelched. He continually talks about how he is going to beat Wlad Klitschko and rule the heavyweight division, but he won't get that fight immediately. He wants to start with a ranked fighter, though. But where should he himself be ranked at the moment?

Despite his change in weight class, the WBO still lists him as their cruiserweight titleholder. The WBC, however, has decided to immediately rank him at #5 as a heavyweight. This has been controversial, to say the least. For most, this is a very premature ranking, considering that he's only tested the waters once as a heavyweight, defeating Tomasz Bonin in the first round. Others believe that, as a dominant cruiserweight champ, he should be granted an immediate ranking among the heavies.

So far, Ring and Fightnews disagree, leaving Haye unranked, while Boxrec still lists him at cruiserweight. In the SportsRatings top 100, Haye is #72. He debuted at #65 after the Bonin win, floated up as high as #60, but has slipped since due to inactivity in the division. To be ranked higher by the system, he'll have to win some fights.

It's up to each organization to determine their own rankings, of course. The WBC may feel it's to their advantage to have Haye ranked high on their list, and perhaps there aren't many compelling heavyweights right now, but most would probably like to see Haye earn his ranking rather than be ushered in at such a high level. It took Evander Holyfield, for example, a long time to build his heavyweight resume up for a title shot.

Thompson shows good chin in loss to Klitschko

Tony Thompson impressed the boxing world Saturday, but for the wrong reason—his ability to take a punch. And he demonstrated it time and time again, throughout 10 full rounds, before falling to a straight right hand midway through the 11th, courtesy of heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko.

Klitschko looked strong though not as dominant as the scorecards would indicate. Thompson controlled the tempo often and was the agressor early on, with his odd southpaw style, long arms, and solid defense confounding the champion. But he lacked offensive power, and as he tired later in the fight his offense disappeared completely.

Meanwhile Klitschko drilled away, getting through the Tiger's defenses more and more. The fight bore much resemblance to Alexander Povetkin's win over "Fast" Eddie Chambers. In that fight, too, the American fighter scored early and defended well, but as the rounds passed by so did his strength. Chambers and Thompson used a similar defensive posture that their Eastern opponents often tried to drill through with brute force.

Round by round summary/scoring

Round One: Thompson made this an awkward round for the champ, stalking him and landing a few hard shots. But Wlad got a couple good ones in, too. Most people gave this to Thompson, but it was very even. Score: 10-10.

Round Two: One of the Tiger's paws slipped on the canvas in the early seconds of the round just as he was hit with a right hook; the ref correctly ruled it was not a knockdown. But a short while later Klitschko scored on a good combination that backed Thompson up to the ring post, and for a moment it looked like it could all be over. Somewhat surprisingly, Thompson stepped out of it unfazed. This was the first indication that he would be able to handle Wladimir's best shots. A Thompson hook to Klitschko's eye started a very bloody mess on the champion's face, but it was a small cut, made worse by a headbutt the two shared that opened Thompson's eye as well. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (20-19).

Round Three: Klitschko was more active this round, trying to impose his tempo on the fight. Thompson defended well and countered decently until about halfway through the round, when his offense disappeared and he held the arms up, peek-a-boo defensive stance for the rest of the round while Klitschko punched away. He was strong enough to defend well but was already too tired to mount a counterattack. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (30-28).

Round Four: Klitschko kept the pressure on this round, actively trying to solve the problems that Thompson presented. This was one of the more entertaining rounds, both men landing good shots. Klitschko's were harder shots on average. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (40-37).

Round Five: A very even round. Though HBO's card gave it to Klitschko, I thought it was as even as the first round. Thompson again showed he has a great chin, as he walked through everything Wlad hit him with, and got in some of his best shots of the fight. But he didn't control the round. Score: 10-10 (Klitschko 50-47).

Round Six: The first half of this round was akin to the 2nd half of Round Three—with Thompson doing nothing offensively. Wlad seemed to be tiring as well. Thompson came alive, though, in the last minute and a half, attacking as aggresively as he did at any moment of the fight. As Thompson opened up, Klitschko countered well and won the round. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (60-56).

Round Seven: Thompson's flurries in the last round turned out to be his last gasp. This is where his work rate dipped. In fact, it vanished for nearly the whole round. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (70-65).

Round Eight: Similar to the last round, except Klitschko was getting past the Tiger's defense more often, leading to better and bigger punches. Thompson made a very easy target, standing in front of the champion, throwing few if any counters. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (80-74).

Round Nine: As above. The fight was clearly getting out of hand for Thompson. His gloves even needed retaping as if to underscore this point. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (90-83).

Round Ten: More of the same. Thompson couldn't muster any offense, but he wouldn't go down. That is, until the final seconds of the round, when an advancing Wladimir stepped onto the Tiger's toe, causing him to topple backwards, hard, onto the canvas, with Klitschko collapsing on top of him. Thompson got up very slowly and his leg looked hurt. He recovered to finish the final seconds of the round. Score: Klitschko 10-9 (100-92).

The anticlimactic final round

Round Eleven: It's not certain what effect the fall had on Thompson; correlation does not necessarily mean causation, so the fact that Wladimir knocked him out midway through this round is probably circumstantial. Thompson says the effects of the fall were temporary, but he sleepwalked through the round until the KO punch. Barely standing up to beat the ten count, he was wobbly and the fight was called. More than likely, the cumulative effect of the punishment he'd been taking was more responsible for the KO than either the fall or the KO punch itself.

In Conclusion

Thompson made a valiant effort, but couldn't sustain it for a full fight. After six rounds he was impressing me with his solid chin and even for the fact that he'd survived half the fight. At one point the announcers said that Thompson had landed more shots on Klitschko than had any other opponent. But they were rarely power punches, and in the last several rounds Thompson slowed down, almost waiting for the inevitable very-unanimous decision to arrive.

Instead, Klitschko ended matters with a KO punch. The champ could have coasted to the decision as well with no worries, but after the lackluster Ibragimov fight he clearly felt he needed to finish the fight early. It was the first time Thompson has been knocked out.

Even with the KO, though, Wladimir hardly put on a dynamic performance. He was still a safety-first fighter; he just had more trouble defending against a man nearly his size, with longer arms. At times they resembled two giraffes fighting, as each tried to push the other's long arms out of the way to gain a clear shot. Tellingly, mid-fight, Klitschko scored with an impressive combination and followed it up with a clinch, showing that he feared a counter from Thompson—who was doing little offensively by this point—more than he was looking for an opportunity to do more damage. He did, however, use the right hand immediately and consistently throughout the fight, something he didn't do against Ibragimov.

Klitschko raises his record to 51-3 with his 45th knock out, while Thompson falls to 31-2 suffering his first. The Tiger will fall from #6 in the SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Rankings to somewhere just outside the top 20. Whether he attempts to climb back up for another title shot, or whether, at 37, he takes his paycheck and calls it a day, we don't know. But after seeing him get pummelled by "Dr. Steelhammer" for ten straight rounds, we shouldn't blame him at all if he chooses the latter.

Klitschko-Thompson: Does the Tiger have a chance?

Saturday night—mid-afternoon in the States—Wladimir Klitschko will defend his IBF and WBO titles (as well as the #1 ranking in the SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 100) against Tony "The Tiger" Thompson.

Thompson is a good boxer who has quietly worked his way up the rankings primarily by not losing. The 37 year old Thompson hasn't dropped a professional bout in eight years, to Erick Kirkland in only his fight. He did lose a decision in November of 2002 to Maurice Harris in the finals of the Thunderbox Heavyweight Tournament. The bout was only 3 rounds, however, and all fights were deemed exhibitions. Either way, Thompson has a long winning streak.

But there aren't many big names on his victims list. The first ranked fighter he beat was then-undefeated Chester Hughes in May of 2001, making him 10-1 and putting him in the SportsRatings Top 100. It was more than a year until he fought another "name" fighter, Ron Guerrero in August of 2002, landing him just outside the Top 50 at 16-1. Dispatching Zuri Lawrence put him near the top 30; in 2003 he beat James Gaines, Gilbert Martinez, and Onebe Maxime in succession but advanced little, as all of them ranked far lower.

In 2004 he handed Yanqui Diaz his first loss early in his career, then treaded water with wins over Augustin Corpus and Vaughn Bean. A full year later, KOing Willie Perryman in the fifth and Maurice Wheeler in the fourth allowed him to slip into the top 25, but still hadn't had a fight that would make people really take notice.

In June of 2006 he beat Dominick Guinn, then 26-3-1, and followed that with an early 2007 decision over Timor Ibragimov (21-1-1). He KOed Luan Krasniqi, then 30-2-1, to slip into the top ten. All of these were impressive wins, though none was superlative. But as other fighters fell out of the top ten for losing and for inactivity, Thompson found himself at #6, and when Wladimir Klitschko took the WBO title, Thompson was in line for a title shot as WBO's #2 ranked fighter.

Thompson is tall (nearly 6'5") and is a southpaw. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well but wears other fighters down eventually. He has the size and style to compete with Klitschko, but does he have a realistic shot of winning, either by KO or decision? A Thompson win is a decided longshot. He doesn't hit as hard as Wlad, nor is he quite as good technically. It's hard to think of a good strategy for him to use in the fight; be conservative, and Klitschko will jab him to death; take chances and get picked apart by the better fighter. He won't have the height advantage he's used to, and the reaches are about the same.

Taking chances, and taking Klitschko out of his conservative game that he used to dominate Ibragimov, may be the better route. Wlad has shown that he is vulnerable when hit, and being conservative probably won't lead to many opportunities for the Tiger. The problem is, Thompson doesn't take many chances in the ring. While not the most conservative fighter, he seems content to outbox his opponent, confound them as a southpaw, and take his opportunities when they come rather than create them. Against Klitschko this probably won't work.

There is always the chance for an upset. They seem to occur most often when least expected. Few are giving Thompson a chance in this bout. It is agreed that he's earned his shot, that he's put in his time, and deserves the big payday. He's a solid boxer and has never been knocked out, but his resume doesn't included any fighters near the level of Wladimir Klitschko. Faced with a taller, much better opponent, he will likely be out of his league on Saturday. Thompson, a fighter who has built his ranking mainly on not losing, rather than beating big names, will have an uphill battle tomorrow.

Should he prevail, he will narrowly take over the number one spot in the rankings. But I expect Wladimir Klitschko to remain on top. The fight is being televised on HBO at 4:30pm eastern time.

Sam, Vidoz draw; Pala beats Akinwande

There were several "mid-major" heavyweight fights among the card in Ankara, Turkey on July 4th, with some interesting and predictably controversial results given the venue and infamous promotor, Ahmet Öner.

The headline fight among the heavies was Sinan Samil Sam (SportsRatings #53) vs. Paulo Vidoz (#78). Most observers felt that Vidoz won the fight, scoring with jabs while Sam, a Turk and the crowd favorite naturally, was more agressive but landed less often. Though both scored occasional big shots during the fight, neither looked particulary sharp. At the end, the promotor seemed to "confer" with the judges angrily, and there was a lengthy delay before the match was declared a draw. What exactly happened no one is quite sure, but in the end it will probably mean a rematch.

[Update: the result has been changed to a win for Sam]

The draw puts Sam's record at 30-4-1 with Vidoz now 25-4-1. In the SportsRatings Top 100, the effect of the draw will be to move the two fighters' ratings closer together; Sam will fall slightly and Vidoz rise somewhat, perhaps five positions each.

Though it was an undercard 6-round fight, the bout between #35 Henry Akinwande and #46 Ondrej Pala featured higher-ranked fighters. 42-year-old Nigerian/Brit and former WBO beltholder Akinwande came into the fight with a 50-3-1 record overall, compared to 23-year-old Czech Pala's 19-2 mark. But youth beat experience as Pala controlled the fight and won the decision.

Pala's rise as a prospect continues, while Akinwande's decline as a former contender nears completion. Pala should jump to near the top 25, while Akinwande will drop well out of the top 50. The loss is Akinwande's second in three bouts over the last two years. Before that, he had a 9-bout winning streak which started after his devastating 2002 KO at the hands of Oliver McCall.

Pala gets a win over his best known competition. When he previously upped the level of his opposition back in 2006, he lost to Rene Dettweiller and Denis Boytsov, who were both undefeated at the time. After those losses, he put together a string of eight wins against inferior fighters before taking the Akinwande bout. Now he arguably has a more impressive win than either of the two who beat him, and he's been much more active as well. He should be considered one of the better young heavyweight prospects fighting today.

Also on the card, undefeated #48 Yakup Saglam defeated Alexander Subin (5-13) on a 3rd round TKO. As Subin is unranked, Saglam's rating will not be affected by the win. The loss was Subin's 11th in a row according to boxrec.com.

Arreola up to #7 in latest rankings; Barrett jumps to #25

Beating previously undefeated #27 Chazz Witherspoon, Chris Arreola moves up 2 spots from #9 to #7. Now 24-0, Arreola moves past David Tua, who was rumored to be the next fight for the winner. Witherspoon tumbles all the way to #69 with his first loss.

The Top 10 as of July 1st:

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	57.24	34-3-0
2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	46.09	10-0-0
3	3	SAMUEL PETER	38.07	16-1-0
4	4	NICOLAY VALUEV	35.12	20-1-0
5	5	ALEX POVETKIN	32.88	10-0-0
6	6	TONY THOMPSON	26.25	14-0-0
9	7	CHRIS ARREOLA	26.06	10-0-0	DQ 3 #27 CHAZZ WITHERSPOON
7	8	DAVID TUA	25.63	28-3-1
8	9	VLADIMIR VIRCHIS	24.61	12-1-0
10	10	VITALI KLITSCHKO	22.53	20-2-0	inactive 42 months.

No change in the top six this month, as none of the biggest names fought, and two of them—#2 Ruslan Chagaev and #4 Nicolay Valuev—won't be fighting in early July as planned, due to Chagaev's torn achilles tendon. This is Chagaev's third training injury in a year—2 more than the number of fights he's actually participated in. Still on for July 12th is #1 Wladimir Klitschko vs. #6 Tony Thompson.

Eddie Chambers inched up five spots to #19 after defeating Raphael Butler, but Monte Barrett made the big move in the Top 100 this week. His 1st round KO of previous #14 Tye Fields brought him from #129 all the way into the top 25, at #25. Fields fell to #37 after suffering just his 2nd loss, but the 2nd 1st-round-KO of his career. Given Fields' usual level of opponent, it will take him several years to reach #14 again, should he consider his career salvageable.

#79 Friday Ahunanya took on #80 Alonzo Butler, and Ahunanya emerged victorious, jumping into the top 50 at #47. Meanwhile in Australia, Kiwi journeyman Colin Wilson upset Samoan Alex Leapai, knocking him from #35 to #85 while Wilson popped in at #81 himself. And newcomer Evans Quinn debuted at #68 after taking out Andrew Greeley.

May fights recap

Alex Dimitrenko jumped from #21 to #16 beating Derrick Rossy; Taras Bidenko moved from #26 to #21 with a win over #79 Michael Sprott; and Danny Williams moved up 4 spots to #21 stopping Konstantin Airich in 7 rounds. Going the other direction was Chris Byrd, falling from #11 to #30 after losing his first fight after switching to the light heavyweight class. Debuts in the top 100: Francesco Pianeta at #40, after beating former #40 Michael Marrone, who falls just outside the top 100; Lovey Page at #70 (def. Arron Lyons); and #96 and #97, Troy Ross and Darrel Madison, who beat Kendrick Releford and Zuri Lawrence respectively.

Lennox Lewis career

After almost 2 decades, Lennox Lewis finally falls out of the Top 100 this month after 5 years of inactivity and being retired for more than 4 of those.

Lewis first entered the top 100 in July of 1989 at #70 after beating Al Malcom in his pro debut. He made the top 50 by the following February, the top 25 by November, 1990, and the top 10 in April of 1991 after beating 35-0 Gary Mason. He entered the top 5 in July of 1992, but didn't get his shot at Bowe or Holyfield before losing to Oliver McCall in September of 1994. He remained in the top ten, though, and quickly fought his way back into the top 5. Still, in early 1997 he was still stuck behind Bowe and Holyfield, watching as Holyfield beat Tyson and Bowe retired without fighting him as a pro.  Finally in March of 1999, with Holyfield at #1 and Lewis at #2, he got his chance at the champ, but the fight ended in a controversial draw. It wasn't until the rematch in November, 1999, that Lennox Lewis took over the SportsRatings Heavyweight belt.

He held it, of course, until his upset loss to Hasim Rahman in April of 2001; regained it by beating Rahman in November; then held it through his win over Mike Tyson, the wild fight with Vitali Klitschko, even through his retirement in 2004, there was no one close to him in the rankings. At first, Chris Byrd was #2, but never came close to passing Lewis, even as Lewis' score began to decline from inactivity. In April of 2006, Wlad Klitshcko replaced Chris Byrd at #2, and in November of 2006, 2 1/2 years after Lewis' retirement, Klitschko moved past Lewis at #1 after beating Calvin Brock. Rumors of his un-retirement continued to pop up, but no fights materialized, and Lewis slowly slid down the rankings until finally falling out this month.