SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Klitschko easily decisions Ibragimov

Wladimir Klitschko easily defended his belt(s) and added Ibragimov's to his collection Saturday, winning the vast majority of rounds and outscoring his opponent 119-110, 117-111, 118-110 on the official cards.

Most observers, including the crowd at Madison Square Garden, found the fight to be rather dull, as Klitschko used his reach advantage to paw away Ibragimov's attempts to close and attack. Ibragimov tried several tactics, including punching from the clinch, attempting wild looping shots, and slightly low blows, and at one point wrestled the larger Klitschko to the canvas as the two became entangled. Still, he had little success in hitting Klitschko, let alone hurting him.

He did, however, take some damage from Klitschko's relentless jab, though there wasn't enough action in the fight to put him in danger of a KO or even a TKO. The closest moment was in the 9th round when Klitschko pummelled Ibragimov with four straight shots, causing him to crouch by the ropes and almost get knocked through them a lá Sergei Lyakhovich against Shannon Briggs. But Ibragimov didn't touch the canvas and no knockdown occurred. Afterward, he seemed mostly unfazed by the barrage, which was probably the hardest of the night. Ibragimov also fell in the previous (8th) round, but it was ruled a push and again was in no danger.

Klitschko's corner urged him to attempt the knockout in the last round, though this would seem to be a departure from his game plan, and would provide Ibragimov the only possibility of a miracle KO himself. Still, Wlad upped his workrate slightly in the 12th, but Ibragimov was nowhere close to being set up for the knockout. He was, however, too tired by this time to launch any spirited effort of his own, and the fight ended like it had commenced the entire night, with Klitscko in control and in no danger.

Ask about the unification effort after the fight, Klitschko said he was just focused on winning fights, and even said that his brother Vitali had dibbs on the Maskaev-Peter winner, raising the possibility of the two brothers ruling the heavyweight class without full unification.

The fight ended just as I'd expected, a unanimous Klitschko victory. But there was a lot less action than I thought, and both fighters left the ring in quite a bit better shape than I'd figured, with Klitschko almost untouched and Ibragimov bumped around a bit but neither exhausted nor cut badly. Wladimir's complete concentration on defense didn't allow Ibragimov any of the interior success I'd imagined, nor with it the counter-punishment that he would take as a result. In short, the fight was tactical, and Klitschko controlled the action to such a degree that little happened.

Ibragimov took his first loss, dropping to 22-1-1, while Klitschko got his 50th victory to go with only three losses.

Fight preview: Ibragimov could hurt Klitschko

Saturday will witness the second prominent heavyweight fight in just eight days—and the first heavyweight title unification bout in eight years—as IBF champion Wladimir Klitschko (49-3-0, 44 KOs) faces WBO belt-holder Sultan Ibragimov (22-0-1, 17 KOs) at Madison Square Garden at 9:30pm eastern time. Klitchko is ranked #1 in the SportsRatings Heavyweight ratings while Ibragimov is ranked #7. The fight is being televised on HBO.

The fight is the first step toward a long overdue unification of the heavyweight division. In addition to the IBF belt, Klitschko holds the lesser-known IBO title, while Ibragimov's WBO belt doesn't carry the prestige of the Big Three organizations. So while three belt groups will be consolidated in one fight, the main three organizations will still have different champions. But you have to start somewhere, right?

Ibragimov is a heavy underdog in the bout. Despite being undefeated, he has a distinct size and reach disadvantage against Klitschko, as most do. Though he has defeated big fighters such as Shannon Briggs, none could match the skill and experience of Klitschko. In those categories, Evander Holyfield certainly qualifies as skilled and experienced, but at 31 Klitschko is in his prime unlike the 45 year old Holyfield.

Sultan Ibragimov career overview

Ibragimov, like many Russian boxers, had an impressive amateur career. He won the 2000 Olympic silver medal, losing to Cuban great Felix Savon. He turned pro in 2002 at age 27 and within 2 1/2 years was 13-0-0, beating up on a series of lesser fighters. Ten of these fights were KOs or TKOs.

After knocking out three mediocre but experienced fighters (James Walton, Al Cole, and Zuri Lawrence) in the next six months, Ibragimov debuted in the SportsRatings Top 100 at #83 in April of 2005. Another KO over Andy Sample and a cut win over Friday Ahunanya (which he was leading) made him 18-0-0 and put him just outside the top 50. He then faced #45 Lance Whitaker, and in what would be Whitaker's last fight. Ibragimov scored three knockdowns on the way to a 7th round TKO, bumping him up to #29.

But following his first win over a respected fighter Ibragimov suffered the only blemish on his pro record. In July of 2006, he fought to a draw with 25th-ranked Ray Austin. Austin went down in the 4th round, while Ibragimov, who tired late in the match, fell in the 10th. On the final cards, one judge had Ibragimov ahead by 4, another had Austin by 2, the third even. That fight was supposed to be a qualifier to face Klitschko. Ultimately Austin was selected...and knocked out by Wlad in the second round.

Since the Austin fight, Ibragimov has come in weighing about 10 pounds less (indeed, he weighed in at 218 for Saturday's fight). Whether he felt he wasn't in the best of shape for Austin, the lower weight helped him win three fights in 2007: A first round KO of Javier Mora; a unanimous decision over Shannon Briggs for the WBO belt; and a successful defense against Evander Holyfied last October.

The Briggs fight showed that he could beat a much bigger opponent. Briggs, rated #9 after his last-second win over Sergei Lyakhovich, came in a 273 pounds. Ibragimov moved well and hit Briggs with fast shots while avoiding the big punches. Not that Briggs threw many punches at all; he cited asthma for his poor performance and retired soon after the fight. Ibragimov jumped into the top ten with the win.

Against Holyfield just four months ago, Ibragimov didn't let his second opportunity for a Klitschko fight to pass by. Originally scheduled to battle Ruslan Chagaev in a belt unification, Holyfield jumped in when Chagaev withdrew for unclear health reasons. Though nearly 45, Holyfield was still ranked #32 after winning four minor fights in a row, and he put forth an admirable effort. Ibragimov was too fast and too young for the former champ, however, and the decision was unanimous. Sultan Ibragimov moved up to #8 in the SportsRatings rankings, and has since slid past Wladimir's retired brother Vitali into the #7 position.

Fight analysis and predictions

Wladimir Klitschko is close to reaching a level where most observers consider him invincible. Not that he is unbeatable, but there aren't many challengers that people consider worthy. His improvement over the years, coupled with the heavyweight division's weakness, has elevated him head and shoulders above the rest, even though he's not considered the official champ by Ring Magazine and others. But a win by Klitschko in a given fight is now assumed. And that's where it gets dangerous for him.

Upsets happen when least expected; that's the definition of an upset. While I'm not picking one in this fight, I think Ibragimov will do better than most people expect. The odds have ranged anywhere from 6:1 to 3:1. I believe Sultan is a tough fighter who will do his best to go the distance, meaning he will only be stopped by a TKO. Over the course of the fight he will have his moments, too, that will hurt Wlad Klitschko.

Ibragimov is smaller, but he is quick and has fast hands. He'll use this to get inside and get quick body shots and back out, farther enough away to avoid Klitschko's reach. Inside, and far outside; both ranges avoid Klitschko's main advantage. Shots to the ribs and body will bend the champion forward to protect himself, so he isn't as tall in his fighting stance.

But ultimately this will come at a cost. Ibragimov will not be able to avoid Klitschko's counters all the time; he will be hurt, too, and worse than the champion. In order to attempt to win the fight, he will have to take risks, and with the reward will come punishment. I foresee Ibragimov taking a lot of damage, getting cut, and possibly having the fight stopped. But short of a stoppage, I think Sultan Ibragimov will fight all 12 rounds and gain a lot of respect from this bout.

Klitschko looked a bit gaunt during the weigh-in, as if he had overtrained. He was very defined, but a bit thin, and at his lowest weight for some time. This will mean he isn't at his best; his reaction time may be slower, and may have energy problems from the start, allowing Ibragimov some success at his plan. But he will also be focused, and in good overall shape, perhaps not tiring noticeably after the first few rounds, and he shouldn't be in serious trouble during the fight. Simply put, it will not be the best of days for Wladimir Klitschko, but he doesn't have to be at his absolute best to win a unanimous decision over Sultan Ibragimov.

He will very likely win, and the scorecards will make it appear like an 'easy' win, but it won't be easy by any means. But he will retain his title (for those who consider him a title holder) and gain Ibragimov's belt.

Should Ibragimov prevail, due to whatever relapse Klitschko may have into his worst moments, he would take over the #1 ranking in the SportsRatings heavyweight top 100, but just barely; right behind him would be Ruslan Chagaev. From there, the #1 ranking could change hands based on who wins the most and best fights from that time forward. The ideal, of course, would be a match between the two.

A win would move Klitschko higher on the All-Time list. Already at #27, he would place around #22 after defeating Ibragimov. I'll post about the All-Time list, its mechanisms, its strong points and its shortcomings, at another date.

 

Valuev unanimous decision over Lyakhovich

Nicolay Valuev handily defeated Sergie Lyakhovich, winning a unanimous decision in a largely uneventful fight Saturday in Germany.

Valuev was methodical in jabbing constantly throughout the fight; Lyakhovich could not effectively get past the jab and after the first several rounds his counters slowed and he seemed resigned to the loss, just holding on to not get knocked out. Valuev, however, did not really go for the knockout, content to win a fight that he clearly led the entire way.

The final card showed every round scored for Valuev, with two at 120-108 and one 120-107. There were no knockdowns though Valuev picked up the pace in the final round when he was in no danger of losing. Lyakhovich took damage throughout the fight from Valuev's jabs but never looked ready to fall.

For Sergei Lyakhovich, there has to be concern about the state of his career after his second loss in a row and for looking so poor in his first fight in over a year. He was much criticized for coming in slightly overweight and appearing to be out of shape, and when combined with his lackluster performance, his drive must be called into question. He has shown himself capable of being a good fighter when he is in top shape and mentally tough, but he was neither today.

In the SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 100, Lyakhovich will fall from #20 to around #40; he will no doubt fall out of the top 15 of the few boxing organizations that list him.

Valuev answered some questions but not all. His style was only slightly more interesting than usual, though part of that was his opponent's fault. He was as workmanlike and "dull" as usual, but the pattern he established was working perfectly so there was no reason to change it up. He might have tried harder to go for the KO, but understandably didn't want to leave himself open to a surprise. He will regain his #3 ranking in the SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 100, and though this fight won't hurt him, it might not help him all that much in terms of appeal to boxing fans.

He will move up slightly or remain the same on all of the major rankings, but in terms of future bouts most of the top fighters are locked in right now anyway. His best bet is the promised rematch with Ruslan Chagaev. Their last fight was even enough that, with improvement, he might have a chance. It wasn't clear how much better he has gotten since then because he didn't have to show a lot in this fight. His jab looked strong, but his movement was probably no better than in the past.

With his size, Valuev is capable of beating all but a few fighters in the heavyweight ranks, but at the same time, any fighter with speed and skill and a determination to train hard and win could spell trouble for the giant.

Lyakhovich didn't show that determination, and his previous skill went missing as well.

Valuev-Lyakhovich preview: The strange career of Sergei Lyakhovich

As the battle between #4 Nicolay Valuev and #20 Sergei Lyakhovich is about to commence, here is a review of the "White Wolf" Lyakhovich's odd career, where triumph in big fights was twice was followed by late-round knockout losses.

Lyakhovich turned pro at age 22 after a lengthy and successful amateur career which included a bronze medal at the 1997 World Championships, participation in the 1996 Olympics for his native Belarus, and a knockout win over Audley Harrison. Wikipedia lists his overall amateur record as 145-15.

1999-2000 He was brought along slowly at first; in his first year as a pro he won five fights, all over nobodies, with four knockouts. He fought some recognized names in his second year, including Marshall Tillman and Everett "Bigfoot" Martin, as well as professional punching bag Bradley Rone. Though these fights left him 12-0 late in 2000, he was unranked in the SportsRatings heavyweight top 100, as he hadn't beaten any solid fighters yet.

2001 His next win, in December 2000 over Derrell Dixon, put him on the charts, albeit only at #95. He followed that up with a decision over Sedrick Fields, in a match where Fields had a full 2 points deducted for after-the-bell agressiveness; without this deduction, the fight may have been a draw. He had managed to dodge the bullets that would later hamper his career.

Instead, he rose to #70, then scored big in handing #23 Friday Ahunanya his first loss and taking the NABA heavyweight title in a unanimous 12 round decision. Lyakhovich replaced Ahunanya in the Top 25 at #23, and pushing his record to 16-0-0—which was Ayunanya's record, too, before the loss.

2002 But then the first bullet hit. On June 1st, 2002, Lyakhovich suffered a late-round knockout to Maurice Harris, who was just 18-12-2 at the time. The loss dropped him to #68, and he also lost his status as one of the most promising up-and-coming boxers; he would have to prove himself again.

2003-2004 Naturally the competition level fell. He KO'ed Joe Lenhart, which put him back in the top 50, but three more knockouts of even lesser fighters (Sione Asipeli, James Walton, and Ron Guerrero) and a decision over Onibe Maxime (who had lost 18 of his last 19) didn't move him up the rankings. The win streak was enough, however, to get him better fights, and he took advantage of it, beating #32 Dominick Guinn in December, 2004 and moving himself back into the top 25 at #20. The upset win made people pay attention again.

2005-2006 He didn't fight again for over a year, but eventually Lyakhovich got a shot at #5 Lamon Brewster's WBO title. On April 1st, 2006, he outpointed Brewster, who suffered a detached retina in the first round that left him blind in that eye for the rest of the fight. Still, Brewster managed to force Sergei to "take a knee" in the 7th round, which Lyakhovich said was intentional on his part to escape Brewster's best attack of the night. He recovered to win a punishing fight that left both men drained and bruised.

With the win, Lyakhovich achieved his highest rating in April of 2006, jumping to #6:

lm num Fighter          rated record rating notes
1   1. LENNOX LEWIS      (34- 2- 1)   54.90 inactive 34 months.
6   2. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (31- 3- 0)   46.34 beat CHRIS BYRD      
3   3. NICOLAY VALUEV    (17- 0- 0)   40.12
4   4. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (22- 2- 0)   35.22 inactive 16 months.
2   5. CHRIS BYRD        (23- 3- 1)   32.32 lost to WLAD KLITSCHKO   
22  6. SERGEI LYAKHOVICH (11- 1- 0)   30.07 beat #5 LAMON BREWSTER   
7   7. JOHN RUIZ         (18- 5- 1)   29.17
8   8. HASIM RAHMAN      (17- 5- 2)   28.12
9   9. JAMES TONEY       ( 4- 0- 1)   27.57
10 10. DANNY WILLIAMS    (18- 4- 0)   26.85

His celebration, as well as his holding of a title, was again short-lived. He met challenger Shannon Briggs, then rated #36, who was on a 3-year, 11 fight win streak but hadn't proven himself since taking the Lineal crown from George Foreman in a controversial decision. The fight was close; Lyakhovich led after 11 rounds by 3, 3, and 1 on the judges' cards. Though he needed only hold on and avoid a catastrophic round to win—and almost any outcome would still be a draw—he couldn't have known this, and his corner believed he needed to win the round to insure victory.

For two minutes the tired fighters traded sluggish blows, but Briggs staggered Sergei with a minute left, and knocked him down with 30 seconds to go. Then, trying to survive to the bell, Lyakhovich crouched by the ropes and Briggs knocked him out of the ring and onto the scorer's table; the fight was stopped with 1 second remaining, giving the TKO victory to Briggs.

Here's that crazy final round:

The loss dropped Lyakhovich to #14, and with subsequent inactivity he has fallen to #20. A win over the highly-rated Valuev would jump him right back where he was before the Briggs loss, however, into the top ten. Given his propensity for late-round disasters, it will be interesting to see how he copes with the huge Valuev, who outweighs even Briggs by 50 pounds.

And if he can win, will success again lead to disappointment if he then faces yet better technical fighters, such as Ruslan Chagaev? It seems that Lyakhovich has reached about as high as most observers think he can go with his abilities. If he wants to prove them wrong, he'll need to both beat Valuev, and follow it up with more wins to show consistency against higher-level competition. If he can accomplish that, a *real* title fight (i.e. Klitschko) might be on the table at some point for Lyakhovich, who at 31 still has time to make it happen.

Heavyweight Boxing Ratings update - Povetkin jumps to #3

Alexander Povetkin's win over previously undefeated Eddie Chambers propelled him to #3 in the latest SportsRating Heavyweight Boxing Ratings for fights through the month of January. Povetkin was ranked 6th in the previous month, and was 38th in September, 2007 before beating then-#3 Chris Byrd, followed by the January bout with Chambers, who was ranked #12 at the time.

Povetkin's meteoric rise fulfils the promise many felt he had in the heavyweight arena after a stellar amateur career. He is now set to take on either #1 Wlad Klitschko (the IBF beltholder) or #7 Sultan Ibragimov (WBO titleholder), who are scheduled to fight on the 23rd of this month.

Consolidating his #2 position is Ruslan Chagaev, who defeated previous #11 Matt Skelton on January 19th. His rating put him within striking distance of Klitschko's belt, but the champ would have to be inactive or lose to be overtaken, and with the Ibragimov and Povetkin fight coming up Chagaev will remain #2.

Nicolai Valuev is pushed to #4 by Povetkin's advance, but the ratings are very close and Valuev should take back #3 if he beats #20 Sergei Lyakovich on the 16th. Likewise Samuel Peter drops a spot to #5, but either he or #6 Oleg Maskeav can possibly jump a few spots if their fight on March 8th comes off.

The SportsRatings Heavyweight Boxing Top 25 (click here for Top 100)

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	54.01	34-3-0
2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	46.18	10-0-0	W12 #11 MATT SKELTON
6	3	ALEX POVETKIN	33.34	10-0-0	W12 #12 EDDIE CHAMBERS
3	4	NICOLAY VALUEV	33.00	21-1-0
4	5	SAMUEL PETER	32.65	14-1-0
5	6	OLEG MASKAEV	28.68	20-5-0	inactive 13 months.
7	7	SULTAN IBRAGIMOV	27.95	10-0-1
8	8	DAVID TUA	26.58	28-3-1
10	9	VITALI KLITSCHKO	25.46	22-2-0	inactive 37 months.
13	10	TONY THOMPSON	25.23	15-1-0
9	11	LENNOX LEWIS	24.07	34-2-1	inactive 55 months.
14	12	VLADIMIR VIRCHIS	23.59	10-1-0
15	13	CHRIS BYRD	23.53	24-4-1
16	14	CHRIS ARREOLA	22.96	8-0-0
17	15	JUAN C GOMEZ	22.06	8-1-0
18	16	HASIM RAHMAN	21.70	20-6-2
19	17	JOHN RUIZ	21.37	19-6-1
20	18	JOE MESI	21.29	17-0-0
22	19	TYE FIELDS	20.93	11-1-0
21	20	SERGEI LYAKHOVICH	20.82	11-2-0	inactive 14 months.
23	21	OLEG PLATOV	20.33	4-0-0
24	22	ALEX DIMITRENKO	20.30	11-0-0
25	23	CORRIE SANDERS	18.95	20-3-0	inactive 14 months.
26	24	SHANNON BRIGGS	18.78	22-5-1
11	25	MATT SKELTON	18.26	11-2-0	L12 #2 RUSLAN CHAGAEV

Vitali Klitschko, idle for over three years, is still in the top ten but on the verge of falling out unless his comeback attempt is again revived. At this time no fight is formally scheduled. Former champ Lennox Lewis finally does fall out of the top ten, and within several months should fall out of the Top 100 altogether, which is fitting because at long last rumors are no longer floating about any comeback attempt.

In other Top 100 moves, Andrew Golota makes a big jump up to #34 after beating Mike Mollo; followed by Chazz Witherspoon, who is still undefeated.

November - December recap

Here's what happened in the Top 25 of the list since October, 2007:

Through November 2007

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	54.01	34-3-0
2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	42.41	9-0-0
3	3	NICOLAY VALUEV	33.00	21-1-0
4	4	SAMUEL PETER	32.65	14-1-0
6	5	OLEG MASKAEV	28.98	20-5-0
5	6	LENNOX LEWIS	28.49	34-2-1	inactive 53 months.
7	7	ALEX POVETKIN	28.02	9-0-0
8	8	SULTAN IBRAGIMOV	27.95	10-0-1
10	9	DAVID TUA	26.58	28-3-1
9	10	VITALI KLITSCHKO	26.55	22-2-0	inactive 35 months.
11	11	MATT SKELTON	25.82	11-1-0
17	12	EDDIE CHAMBERS	25.55	12-0-0	W12 #27 CALVIN BROCK
12	13	TONY THOMPSON	25.23	15-1-0
14	14	VLADIMIR VIRCHIS	23.59	10-1-0	W10 #216 ROBERT HAWKINS
13	15	CHRIS BYRD	23.53	24-4-1
15	16	CHRIS ARREOLA	22.96	8-0-0
16	17	JUAN C GOMEZ	22.06	8-1-0
19	18	HASIM RAHMAN	21.70	20-6-2	W10 #226 ZURI LAWRENCE
18	19	JOHN RUIZ	21.37	19-6-1
20	20	JOE MESI	21.29	17-0-0
21	21	SERGEI LYAKHOVICH	21.26	11-2-0
22	22	OLEG PLATOV	20.33	4-0-0
25	23	ALEX DIMITRENKO	20.30	11-0-0	W12 #96 TIMO HOFFMAN
23	24	TYE FIELDS	20.30	10-1-0
24	25	CORRIE SANDERS	19.36	20-3-0

Chambers' defeat of Calvin Brock put him near the top ten in November, ready for the showdown with Povetkin.

Through December 2007

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	54.01	34-3-0
2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	42.41	9-0-0
3	3	NICOLAY VALUEV	33.00	21-1-0
4	4	SAMUEL PETER	32.65	14-1-0
5	5	OLEG MASKAEV	28.98	20-5-0
7	6	ALEX POVETKIN	28.02	9-0-0
8	7	SULTAN IBRAGIMOV	27.95	10-0-1
9	8	DAVID TUA	26.58	28-3-1
6	9	LENNOX LEWIS	26.37	34-2-1	inactive 54 months.
10	10	VITALI KLITSCHKO	26.01	22-2-0	inactive 36 months.
11	11	MATT SKELTON	25.82	11-1-0
12	12	EDDIE CHAMBERS	25.55	12-0-0
13	13	TONY THOMPSON	25.23	15-1-0
14	14	VLADIMIR VIRCHIS	23.59	10-1-0
15	15	CHRIS BYRD	23.53	24-4-1
16	16	CHRIS ARREOLA	22.96	8-0-0
17	17	JUAN C GOMEZ	22.06	8-1-0
18	18	HASIM RAHMAN	21.70	20-6-2
19	19	JOHN RUIZ	21.37	19-6-1
20	20	JOE MESI	21.29	17-0-0
21	21	SERGEI LYAKHOVICH	21.04	11-2-0	inactive 13 months.
24	22	TYE FIELDS	20.93	11-1-0	W1 #179 CHRIS KOVAL
22	23	OLEG PLATOV	20.33	4-0-0	NC4 #30 DANNY WILLIAMS
23	24	ALEX DIMITRENKO	20.30	11-0-0
25	25	CORRIE SANDERS	19.16	20-3-0	inactive 13 months.

Very little action in December, as Lewis and V. Klitschko slide further down the rankings.