SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

Byrd-Povetkin part 3: fight preview

See part I, a career overview of Chris Byrd and his advancement in my ratings system, and part II, Alexander Povetkin's career.

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In the amateurs, I fought Russians 10 times and only won four.
—Chris Byrd, interviewed at ESPN.com

If Chris Byrd already has difficulty against Russian fighters, he'll have his hands full with Alex Povetkin for a number of other reasons.

One, Byrd is getting older. Can he still fight at 37 in the style he's used to? Will he be able to fluster the younger Povetkin, and impose his type of fight on him?

Additionally, Byrd hasn't fought much lately. Since losing to Wlad Klitschko in April of 2006, Byrd waited a whole year before his next fight, and it's been 6 months since that one. We haven't seen enough of him to know if he'll be sharp.

Povetkin faces a challenge as well. He hasn't fought a pro fighter either as good as Byrd or as unorthodox. Assuming Byrd is in top form, Povetkin will a lot on his hands for a fighter in his 14th pro bout.

I don't really make predictions about upcoming bouts, because there are so many variables relating to a fighter's current mental state, physical condition, and random luck that come into play after the six months or so between the times we see them. What I can speculate about is, what each result would mean for the fighters in terms of my rating system.

Povetkin, currently #39, has the most to gain from a victory, of course. He would move into the top ten, probably around #7, bringing his rating more in line with where many observers would put him skillwise. A loss would drop him out of the top 50, but it's unclear what it would do to his career. Depending on the type of loss, it may have little effect, as many other fighters have lost to Byrd under unusual circumstances and haven't been viewed as lesser fighters. Additionally, Byrd has been rated highly by many of the boxing organizations and has held two belts, so he wouldn't be losing to a 'bum.'

If Byrd wins, he'd remain at #3 in the ratings; more importantly, he'd advance in the tournament, which would give him a chance to continue moving toward a rematch with Wlad. A loss here would drop him out of the top ten.

Many people want to see Byrd lose because of the havoc he sometimes wreaks in the division, but moreso because he's already lost to Wlad twice, badly, and a third fight is one that few people other than Chris Byrd want to see. Also Povetkin is being projected as a potention "savior" of the division, and there's the added possibility of a Povetkin-Chambers contest between young undefeated fighters.

But Byrd is a good opponent here because now, Povetkin will have to earn the title shot. Beating a wiley, experienced fighter would show that Povetkin is for real more than any dozen lesser fighters he's faced so far.

Byrd-Povetkin preview pt. 2 - Povetkin's career

Alexander Povetkin hasn't been on the pro Heavyweight scene very long, but he's already attracted a lot of attention and is being touted by many as the future of his weight class. At 28 and only 13-0, he's two fights away from challenging for the title.

Why is he causing such excitement after so few fights? One reason is his stellar amateur record, which included an Olympic gold medal in 2004. His overall amateur record was 125-7.

Another reason is that in his pro career so far he's barely been challenged, knocking out most of his opponents in short order. In his latest fight against Larry Donald, Povetkin unanimously won all 10 rounds. His fighting style and skills are applauded by most boxing watchers as developed well beyond his limited pro experience.

That said, he does not rate very high in a "reward"-based system such as mine; Povetkin is still only #39 on my Heavyweight Top 100, a ranking that simply reflects the lower quality of fighters that he has been matched up with. The fight with Byrd will change all of that, of course; with a win, Povetkin would leap into the top ten, ready to meet the Eddie Chambers-Calvin Brock winner in the second round of the IBF tournament.

Here is an overview of Povetkin's progress in the rankings over his career. The rankings of the boxers are the rankings they held at the time of the fight.

After four wins over unranked fighters, Povetkin won a stoppage over #225 Willie Chapman in December of 2005 to join the list of ranked fighters at #87. His next win, a KO vs. #308 Richard Bango in March, 2006, didn't help his rating any, but a month later he decisioned #228 Friday Ahunanya. While this win only moved him up to #81, it brought him additional respect from the boxing world.

Over the next year he defeated four ranked opponents: #360 Ed Mahone, #294 Imamu Mayfield, #237 David Bostice, and #235 Patrice L'Hereux, all by KO or TKO, the final two both in the second round. Clearly he needed to face better competition.

These victories moved him into the top 50 for the first time. Most observers would rate him higher than this for the quality of the win as opposed to the opponent, but my system looks only at wins and losses. In May of this year, Povetkin defeated #76 Larry Donald in a one-sided fight. It was the first time Povetkin had gone 10 rounds as a pro. While many cited his skill at winning every round over a decent fighter, others were surprised he couldn't achieve the knockout in ten rounds.

Povetkin moved up to #42 with that win, and since he has drifted up to #39. For his noted skill and quality of his victories, Alexander Povetkin is rated in most people's subjective top 20. Unfortunately he hasn't fought the kind of boxers he needs to face to prove that he deserves such a ranking. That will change Saturday night. Chris Byrd will clearly be his toughest test as a pro, but with that risk comes the possibility of a great reward: the opportunity to be a fight away from challenging for the heavyweight title.

Byrd - Povetkin preview pt. I: Chris Byrd career overview

In August, 1995, Chris Byrd entered my Heavyweight Top 100 Ratings for the first time. Over ten years later, in December 2005, Alexander Povetkin won the fight that would rank him at #87. On Saturday the two boxers face off as competitors in the first fight of the 4-man IBF mini-tournament that will eventually determine who will take on belt holder Wlad Klitschko.

Part One of this fight preview will focus on Chris Byrd's career and rating history on my Heavyweight Top 100; Part Two will cover Povetkin's career, and general fight analysis.

Southpaw Byrd started his pro career in 1993 at age 23 after 275 amateur fights that included a Silver medal in the 1992 Olympics as a Middleweight. He was ranked at #101 when he beat Tim Puller to break into the Top 100 at #62. Fighting every few months, he quickly rose to the top 25 by beating #34 Phil Jackson in November; subsequent wins over #61 Jeff Wooden and #42 Lionel Butler put Byrd in the top 20 at #16 in May, 1996.

For the next two years, however, quality opponents seemed to elude Byrd. In addition to being a lefty he had an unorthodox, defensive style that was difficult for fighters to cope with or for the public to have interest in. Byrd fought about 4 times a year against mostly lesser competition outside of the top 100. By the time he beat Ross Puritty in July of 1998, he sat at #12, just behind Mike Tyson:

lm  num Fighter            record    rating
1    1. EVANDER HOLYFIELD (22-3-0)   61.38
2    2. RIDDICK BOWE      (21-1-0)   59.66 inactive 19 months.
3    3. LENNOX LEWIS      (26-1-0)   54.37
4    4. MICHAEL MOORER    (16-2-0)   29.14
5    5. BRIAN NIELSEN     (20-0-0)   28.79
6    6. GEORGE FOREMAN    (49-5-0)   28.46
7    7. LARRY DONALD      (19-2-0)   25.49
8    8. HASIM RAHMAN      ( 9-0-0)   24.71 W3 #350 GARING LANE      
9    9. HENRY AKINWANDE   (18-1-1)   24.64
11  10. MICHAEL GRANT     (12-0-0)   23.55
10  11. MIKE TYSON        (31-3-0)   23.36 inactive 13 months.
12  12. CHRIS BYRD        (12-0-0)   22.71 W10 #238 ROSS PURITTY

He would not reach top ten, however; Byrd's next fight would be his first loss, a fifth-round TKO against undefeated Ike Ibeabuchi. Byrd complained to the ref about a premature stoppage only because he didn't realize he was out on his feet. His march to the top had been (temporarily) scuttled.

Byrd remained in the top 25 and came storming back, winning four fights by knockout in the next year, all against the sub-par competion he could get fights with. His luck changed when he was able to sign a fight with #5 Vitali Klitschko in April of 2000 as a last-week substitute for ailing Razor Ruddock.

By all accounts WBO champ Klitschko dominated the fight and by the ninth round was well ahead on all scorecards when he couldn't continue in the tenth round due to a shoulder injury. Vitali had torn his rotator cuff, the first of his many injuries that would plague his career, and Byrd was declared the winner. The victory, regardless of how it was achieved, launched Byrd up to #6 in May of 2000.

lm  num Fighter            record    rating
1    1. LENNOX LEWIS      (29-1-1)   74.43 W2 #4 MICHAEL GRANT   
3    2. EVANDER HOLYFIELD (23-4-1)   42.59 
2    3. RIDDICK BOWE      (21-1-0)   41.67 inactive 40 months.
6    4. MIKE TYSON        (33-3-0)   26.55
7    5. LARRY DONALD      (21-2-0)   26.35
28   6. CHRIS BYRD        (15-1-0)   25.60 W9 #5 VITALI KLITSCHKO
8    7. IKE IBEABUCHI     ( 6-0-0)   24.88 inactive 13 months.
9    8. DAVID TUA         (17-1-0)   24.78
11   9. BRIAN NIELSEN     (28-1-0)   24.48 W5 #196 JEREMY WILLIAMS 
10  10. HENRY AKINWANDE   (19-1-1)   24.11 inactive 13 months.

He didn't have long to celebrate. His first WBO defense was against Vitali's brother Wladimir, then the #9 ranked heavyweight. Though he later said Wladimir's style was more familiar and easier to deal with, he did no better against him; Byrd was knocked down in the 9th and 11th and lost a overwhelmingly one-sided decision.

Again Byrd dropped to the lower reaches of the top 25, but he came back against better opposition this time. Over the next two years he beat #39 David Vedder, #26 Maurice Harris, and #19 David Tua, all by decision, and by July of 2002 he had achieved his highest rating, #5.

lm  num Fighter            record    rating
1    1. LENNOX LEWIS      (33-2-1)   72.05 W8 #5 MIKE TYSON      
6    2. EVANDER HOLYFIELD (25-5-2)   43.86 W8 #2 HASIM RAHMAN    
4    3. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (24-1-0)   35.42 W6 #69 RAY MERCER      
3    4. JOHN RUIZ         (14-3-1)   35.21
7    5. CHRIS BYRD        (19-2-0)   28.87 W5 #318 JEFF PEGUES      
2    6. HASIM RAHMAN      (13-4-0)   28.59 L8 #6 EVANDER HOLYFIELD
8    7. KIRK JOHNSON      (18-0-1)   28.34
9    8. JAMEEL MCCLINE    ( 9-0-2)   27.86
10   9. OLIVER MCCALL     (17-6-0)   25.54
11  10. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (18-1-0)   24.87

This gave him the chance to fight 40-year-old Evander Holyfield for the vacated IBF title. Byrd made the best of this opportunity and won the second major belt of his career by outboxing the aging fighter. With the win, Chris Byrd ranked #2 among all fighters in January of 2003 behind only #1 Lennox Lewis.

lm num Fighter            record    rating
1   1. LENNOX LEWIS      (33-2-1)   72.05
6   2. CHRIS BYRD        (20-2-0)   42.38 W12 #2 EVANDER HOLYFIELD
4   3. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (25-1-0)   40.53 W10 #8 JAMEEL MCCLINE   
3   4. JOHN RUIZ         (15-3-1)   40.51
2   5. EVANDER HOLYFIELD (25-6-2)   31.01 L12 #6 CHRIS BYRD      

Lewis never would fight Byrd, though most fans didn't want the fight anyway. Byrd's style wasn't popular, nor was he well known among casual fans and the general public. After Byrd defended his IBF belt against #11 Fres Oquendo in September, he became the SportsRatings interim heavyweight boxing champion in February of 2004 when Lennox Lewis retired. Lewis, however, remained #1, though inactive, as he had a substantial ratings lead over Byrd and could reclaim the title at any time by fighting again. To claim the #1 spot, Byrd would have to win more fights against top-rated fighters and pass Lewis.

However, his next fight was a controversial draw with #80 Andrew Golota, despite which he remained #2 in the ratings, though he lost points. He won a split decision against #11 Jameel McCline in November, then beat #17 Davarl Williamson almost a year later, before getting a rematch with Wlad Klitschko. Byrd didn't fare any better this time as Wlad knocked him down in the fifth, and out in the seventh, and dropped him to #5 in the ratings for May of 2006:

lm num Fighter            record    rating
1   1. LENNOX LEWIS      (34-2-1)   54.92 inactive 34 months.
6   2. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (31-3-0)   46.20 W7 #2 CHRIS BYRD      
3   3. NICOLAY VALUEV    (17-0-0)   40.00
4   4. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (22-2-0)   35.26 inactive 16 months.
2   5. CHRIS BYRD        (23-3-1)   32.31 L7 #6 WLAD KLITSCHKO

Wlad went on to take over the #1 spot later that year; Byrd's only fight since was a win over #85 Paul Marinaccio, who ironically retired in the 7th round due to an arm injury. The last guy he did that to, Vitali Klitschko, retired in 2005 and has slipped below Byrd in the rankings, as has Lewis, leaving Byrd at #3 in the current standings.

Now 37, he's facing the first of two younger fighters he'll need to beat to get yet another shot at Wlad Klitschko. Some boxing fans don't like Chris Byrd's style, but he's willing to fight, and wants the chance to find out if, against Klitschko, the third time's a charm.

Tomorrow: Alexander Povetkin profile, and fight analysis.

Heavyweight Ratings Update: Peter, Ibragimov, Gomez advance

An unofficial weekly update to my Heavyweight Boxing computer rankings through last night's fights (10-19):

lm num  Fighter            record    rating
1    1. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (34-3-0)   53.81
2    2. RUSLAN CHAGAEV    (12-0-0)   42.25
3    3. CHRIS BYRD        (24-3-1)   33.26
4    4. NICOLAY VALUEV    (21-1-0)   32.79
6    5. SAMUEL PETER      (15-1-0)   32.59 W12 #65 JAMEEL MCCLINE
5    6. LENNOX LEWIS      (34-2-1)   30.46 inactive 52 months.
7    7. OLEG MASKAEV      (21-5-0)   29.08
11   8. SULTAN IBRAGIMOV  (10-0-1)   28.02 W12 #34 EVANDER HOLYFIELD
8    9. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (22-2-0)   27.11 inactive 34 months.
9   10. DAVID TUA         (28-3-1)   26.60
10  11. MATT SKELTON      (13-1-0)   25.83
12  12. TONY THOMPSON     (16-1-0)   25.23
13  13. VLADIMIR VIRCHIS  ( 9-1-0)   23.14
14  14. CHRIS ARREOLA     ( 8-0-0)   22.94
15  15. EDDIE CHAMBERS    (11-0-0)   22.01
35  16. JUAN C GOMEZ      ( 8-1-0)   22.00 W12 #18 OLIVER MCCALL
21  17. JOHN RUIZ         (19-6-1)   21.40 W12 #163 OTIS TISDALE
20  18. JOE MESI          (17-0-0)   21.24 W1 #196 SHANNON MILLER
16  19. SERGEI LYAKHOVICH (11-2-0)   21.23
17  20. HASIM RAHMAN      (20-6-2)   21.17
19  21. TYE FIELDS        (11-1-0)   20.83
22  22. OLEG PLATOV       ( 4-0-0)   20.33
23  23. CORRIE SANDERS    (20-3-0)   19.33
24  24. SHANNON BRIGGS    (24-5-1)   19.03
25  25. ALEX DIMITRENKO   (12-0-0)   18.97

The biggest fight this month, Sultan Ibragimov's decision over Evander Holyfield, vaults the winner into the top ten for the first time. Samuel Peter's consolation bout with Jameel McCline puts him into the top five. And busting into the top 25 is Juan Carlos Gomez, who defeated Oliver McCall in their rematch. He moves ahead of fighters who won against opponents outside the top 100, as John Ruiz and Joe Mesi move up slightly.

The official Top 100 will be published at the beginning of November.

Tonight's fights: McCall/Gomez and others

There are several heavyweight contests on the McCall/Gomez card, only a few of which could affect the Heavyweight Top 100 Ratings. Starting with the headline event, fighter records are (overall record, rated record).

Main event:

#18 Oliver McCall (51-8-0, 27-7-0) vs. #35 Juan Carlos Gomez (42-1-0, 7-1-0): Had the decision in their October 2005 bout stood, Gomez would be in the top 25 while McCall would be just outside it. Instead, the result was changed to No Contest after Gomez tested positive for cocaine.

The two meet again tonight, and it's unclear how much has changed since then. 42-year-old McCall looks like he's in great shape, perhaps artificially, but extra muscle won't help him if he's outboxed like last time. Since that in-the-ring defeat, McCall has feasted on a steady diet of lesser boxers, culminating in a close but unanimous decision over Sinan Samil Sam that put him back on track. But the rematch with Gomez has always been looming.

Gomez, for his part, has been less active, in part from appealing the test result and concommitant ban. He's had just three fights since then, the only rated opponent being Dennis Bahktov whom he decisioned in June. The ex-cruiserweight weighed in at 228.

Ratings upshot: If Gomez can control the fight again and win, he'll move into the top 25, probably near the top 15; likewise, with a win McCall would move back into the top 15 for the first time since his win over Henry Akinwande in 2001 and subsequent inactive time due to arrest and yearlong imprisonment.

Undercard bouts of interest:

#52 Sinan Samil Sam (27-4-0; 12-4-0) vs. Ivica Perkovic (14-8-0; 0-0-0): Sam has lost to both of the topcard fighters, McCall in 2007 and Gomez in 2003. Ratings upshot: As Perkovic is unrated, it carries no benefit for Sam in the ratings system. An upset win by Perkovic would, however, launch him into the ratings system near the top 50, with a clean slate record of 1-0-0.

#46 Odlanier Solis Fonte (4-0-0, 3-0-0) vs. #462 Jeremy Bates (21-14-1, 3-12-0): Fonte has been fighting every few months and this should be no more than another tuneup for him. Ratings upshot: Almost no tangible ratings benefit for Fonte; Bates would be near top 100 with upset.

#57 Steffen Kretschmann (9-0-0, 1-0-0) vs. #359 Corey Sanders (23-11-0, 7-6-0): Kretschmann, who made the ratings with his 1st round KO of Edgar Kalnars, takes on the huge but ineffective Sanders. Ratings upshot: Little if any benefit for Krets; upset would move Sanders close to top 100.

#312 Goran Gogic (17-3-2, 2-3-1) vs. #320 Ozcan Cetinkaya (10-3-0, 1-3-0): Gogic is coming off a win over Cisse Salif, while Cetinkaya hasn't beaten a rated opponent since 2003. Ratings upshot: The winner might make the top 300.

Top 100 Heavyweight Rankings

It's a little late in the month but since I just started this blog, I'm posting the October (1st) list of the Top 100 Heavyweight fighters covering fights through the end of September.

The purpose of the computer rankings is, of course, to offer a purely unbiased, non-political alternative to the belt organizations that have done such an injustice to the sport. I'll have a number of posts along the way explaining the system; for now, a few important notes:

• it's a "reward" system rather than a "predictive" system. It doesn't contend to say which fighter would win a contest between two ranked fighters, but rather gives points for success in the ring and deducts points for losing.

• Winning and losing is all that is taken into account; whether a fighter wins by KO in the 1st, controversial split decision in 12, or by his opponent's disqualification, the end result is the same. The winner always ends up ranked above the loser, so it's strongly "lineal" in nature.
  

• No fighters are ever removed from the list; instead, inactivity is punished slowly but surely, and some retired fighters take years to move down the charts.

• The listed record counts only the fighters' major fights, which I'll explain when I explain the system in more detail.

Some highlights from the top 100:

lm  num Fighter            record   rating recent results
1    1. WLAD KLITSCHKO    (34-3-0)   53.81
2    2. RUSLAN CHAGAEV    (12-0-0)   42.25
4    3. CHRIS BYRD        (24-3-1)   33.26
6    4. NICOLAY VALUEV    (21-1-0)   32.79 W12 #37 JEAN BERGERON
3    5. LENNOX LEWIS      (34-2-1)   32.31 inactive 51 months.
5    6. SAMUEL PETER      (14-1-0)   31.46
7    7. OLEG MASKAEV      (21-5-0)   29.08
8    8. VITALI KLITSCHKO  (22-2-0)   27.62 inactive 33 months.
9    9. DAVID TUA         (28-3-1)   26.60
10  10. MATT SKELTON      (13-1-0)   25.83
11  11. SULTAN IBRAGIMOV  ( 9-0-1)   25.41
12  12. TONY THOMPSON     (16-1-0)   25.23 W2 #149 CLIFF COUSER
13  13. VLADIMIR VIRCHIS  ( 9-1-0)   23.14
14  14. CHRIS ARREOLA     ( 8-0-0)   22.94 W10 #162 THOMAS HAYES
15  15. EDDIE CHAMBERS    (11-0-0)   22.01
16  16. SERGEI LYAKHOVICH (11-2-0)   21.23
18  17. HASIM RAHMAN      (20-6-2)   21.17 W2 #331 DICKY RYAN
17  18. OLIVER MCCALL     (27-7-0)   21.15
19  19. TYE FIELDS        (11-1-0)   20.83
20  20. JOE MESI          (16-0-0)   20.69

No surprise at the top; I think everyone agrees that Wladimir Klitschko deserves the top spot (unless you're with the WBC, WBA, or WBO). Other non-belt organizations that rank heavyweights such as FightNews.com, BoxRec.com,  and Ring Magazine have Klitschko #1, though Ring still counts the title as 'vacant.'

Nicolay Valuev's win over Jean Bergeron moves him past Sam Peter (this is prior to Peter's October win over Jameel McCline) as well as Lennox Lewis, who after all these years is still in the top 5. Fighters who retire at or near their peak hang around a long time in this system; it's a trade-off, as many fighters are inactive for long periods then "un-retire", and the system is designed to penalize inactivity while allowing for long breaks without removing and adding fighters back. Vitali Klitschko, who recently threatened to come back, is also on a downward trajectory, but should he unretire again he'll be considered a top 10 contender for at least a few more months.

Tony Thompson, Chris Arreola, and Hasim Rahman all won in September but only Rahman moved up one spot. In the top 25 of the chart it's difficult to move up by beating opponents outside of the top 100, as all these men faced.

This chart is through the fights in September and therefore doesn't include #11 Sultan Ibragimov's win over #35 Evander Holyfield. I will have weekly updates to the rankings, sometimes top 10 or 25, based on the important fights that have occurred since the last official rankings.

One last interesting note about the Top 100 is #99 - Mike Tyson. He'll soon fall off the ratings for the first time since 1985.

Holyfield's Last Stand

As most expected, Evander Holyfield lost a decision Sultan Ibragimov in Moscow. After seeing Ibragimov vs. Shannon Briggs, I didn't think an aging Holyfield could handle the hard puncher, who showed an ability to avoid big blows. Sadly this was the most anticipated fight in the heavyweight division in months.

The final question is what is next for Evander, and most boxing fans hope that he announces his retirement.