SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

#4 Joe Joyce vs. Zhilie Zhang round-by-round scoring

4th ranked and undefeated Joe Joyce takes on Olympic silver medalist Zhilie Zhang. Zhang is currently #88 after a loss and draw in his last 4 fights. He's still a big threat with a big punch but Joyce, an Olympic silver medalist himself, has the big advantage in durability and stamina as he lives up to his nickname, The Juggernaut. He's a -1100 favorite, which seems a bit excessive but he should definitely be the favorite. Both fighters are 6 feet, 6 inches tall.

Round-by-round scoring for the 12 round fight:

1. Early feeling out for the first minute. Good shots from Zhang, landing some hard punches in the middle of the round which is really his only chance—the longer the fight goes the more Joyce will be favored. Good shot to the body for Zhang. Joyce is unfazed and continues his high output but not connecting much. Joyce hanging back a little bit though. Zhang 10-9
2. Joyce respecting Zhang's 80 inch reach which is equal to Joyce's. Good exchange early in the round. Joyce relentless with activity. Great counter 1-2 by Zhang. Huge left from Zhang! Joyce is stunned and stumbles around the ring a bit but stays up. Ref separates and restarts them and Joyce recovers. Joyce back to the activity late in the round, Zhang looks a bit tired. Zhang 10-9; 20-18 
3. Joyce starting with high workrate to not let Zhang get anyting in, Zhang goes to the body, gets a right in but 90% of activity is Joyce. Zhang fading a bit it seems with a minute left. Zhang gets a few lefts in, and another one late but Joyce is unfazed. Much better round for Joyce 10-9; 29-28 Zhang
4. Joyce stepping up pace, mostly jabs hitting Zhang's arms but staying relentless. Zhang's output is very slight midway through, though he gets some lefts in still. 1-2 left right from Zhang scores, Joyce keeps the pressure up. Another few shots from Zhang but activity probably wins a close round for Joyce 10-9; 38-38
5. Joyce really speedy as round 5 starts, going to the head and body. Counter left from Zhang is almost his first punch after more than half a minute. Big left from Zhang, multiple punches from Joyce though. Joyce's face looks far worse though as Zhang's punches are connecting unimpeded. Activity probably wins that for Joyce, too, but it's even closer than last round, and he doesn't look great, especially Joyce's right eye. Joyce 10-9; 48-47 Joyce
6. The ref checks Joyce's eye, and he passes the test but things get serious as there's no guarantee he's winning the fight. Good short right from Zhang. Joyce continues relentless punching, but Zhang comes alive with 4 or 5 good strikes and the doctor is checking the eye again. Joyce answers correctly 2 finger and 1 finger, but the fight is STOPPED! And Zhang wins the TKO on doctor's decision!

Wow. Joe Joyce's legendary durability cost him, as he remained unfazed by most of Zhang's shots, but you can have a great chin but no one has a "great eye" and the damage was enough for the doctor to stop the fight.

Zhang, only #88 in SportsRatings' top 100, will jump into the top 10 for the first time in his career. Joyce will fall to just outside the top 10. 

Heavyweight boxing: Alex Povetkin out of top 10 after 15 years

Alexander Povetkin had one of the longest reigns in the top three of any boxer in history—possibly the longest of any boxer who didn't reach the top. This month in our Top 100 rankings Povetkin, who retired in June, 2021, has just now slipped out of the top 10, ending a string of just shy of 15 years there. In all Povetkin spent 179 months in the top ten, with 107 months—nearly 9 years—at #3, with a full 12 years in the top five. Here's a rundown of his career in our top 10:

February 2008 rankings: Povetkin breaks into the top ten following a stellar 2007

2004 olympic gold medalist Povetkin's pro career got off to a good start at 10-0. He then had a great 2007, winning four fights over ranked fighters including an 11th round TKO of #6 Chris Byrd in the first fight of the IBF eliminator designed to pick Wlad Klitschko's next foe at the time. That put him at #11, just outside the top ten for three months before the IBF eliminator final vs. Eddie Chambers, which he won by unanimous decision on January 26, 2008. That put Povetkin not just in the top ten but in the top five, at #4.

June 2007	July 2007	Nov 2007	Jan 2008	Feb 2008	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	January 2008 results
1	1	1	1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	21.42	27-3-0
2	2	2	2	2	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	13.86	10-0-0	UD 12 #8 MATT SKELTON
4	4	3	3	3	SAMUEL PETER	7.53	14-1-0
58	47	11	11	4	ALEX POVETKIN	7.20	10-0-0	UD 12 #6 EDDIE CHAMBERS
5	5	4	4	5	NICOLAY VALUEV	6.74	18-1-0

 

December 2009 rankings: Povetkin ascends to the #3 spot after David Haye beats #3 Nicolay Valuev in November

The promised fight with Klitschko didn't happen just yet. Povetkin's management felt he wasn't ready to face Wladimir (they were right) as he was only 28 and had plenty of time to develop. Povetkin won a few stay-busy fights that held his rank.

By this time Wladimir Klitschko had beaten #2 Chagaev, and Vitali Klitscho had beaten #3 Sam Peter and taken over the #2 spot with Nicolay Valuev then at #3. When David Haye beat Valuev, Povetkin moved into the #3 spot where he would camp literally for years.

Feb 2008	Aug 2008	May 2009	Nov 2009	Dec 2009	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	November 2009 results
1	1	1	1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	59.13	31-3-0
11	12	3	2	2	VITALI KLITSCHKO	37.21	20-2-0
4	5	5	4	3	ALEX POVETKIN	29.08	12-0-0
20	13	7	5	4	EDDIE CHAMBERS	26.76	13-1-0
2	2	2	6	5	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	26.50	11-1-0
59	64	23	21	6	DAVID HAYE	25.35	3-0-0	MD 12 #3 NICOLAY VALUEV
5	4	4	3	7	NICOLAY VALUEV	20.81	21-2-0	L MD 12 #21 DAVID HAYE

 

October 2013: Povetkin finally fights Wladimir Klitschko—and loses—but retains his #3 ranking in the November rankings

From late 2009 thru 2013 Povetkin won 8 fights, including a unanimous decision win over Ruslan Chagaev in August of 2011. Along with the Klitschko brothers who were also undefeated during that span, the top trio dominated boxing and were far ahead of the rest of the pack. So far ahead that when Povetkin fought Wlad Klitschko on October 5, 2013, and lost a lopsided decision, he remained at #3 in the November, 2013 rankings:

Jan 2010	Jan 2011	Jan 2012	Jan 2013	Oct 2013	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	2013 Jan-Sept results
1	1	1	1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	69.90	38-3-0	TKO 6 #15 FRANCESCO PIANETA
2	2	2	2	2	VITALI KLITSCHKO	46.76	27-2-0	--last rated win -12 months.
3	3	3	3	3	ALEX POVETKIN	39.27	20-0-0	TKO 3 #17 ANDRZEJ WAWRZYK
45	23	13	5	4	KUBRAT PULEV	26.67	12-0-0	UD 12 #44 TONY THOMPSON
71	63	4	4	5	TYSON FURY	24.48	11-0-0	KO 7 #121 STEVE CUNNINGHAM

 

Jan 2011	Jan 2012	Jan 2013	Oct 2013	Nov 2013	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	October 2013 results
1	1	1	1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	75.22	39-3-0	UD 12 #3 ALEX POVETKIN
2	2	2	2	2	VITALI KLITSCHKO	46.27	27-2-0	--last rated win -13 months.
3	3	3	3	3	ALEX POVETKIN	27.76	20-1-0	L UD 12 #1 WLAD KLITSCHKO
23	13	5	4	4	KUBRAT PULEV	26.67	12-0-0
63	4	4	5	5	TYSON FURY	24.48	11-0-0

 

October 2015 rankings: Alexander Povetkin moves to #2 as the retired Vitali Klitchko slides to #3

Following the loss to Klitschko, Povetkin beat Manuel Charr, Carlos Takam, and Mike Perez to maintain his #3 ranking. Meanwhile Vitali Klitschko had last fought in September of 2012 and had retired, losing rating points since late 2013. Finally in the October, 2015 rankings Klitschko slipped below Povetkin who was finally #2 after spending almost six years at #3!

June 2014	Nov 2014	June 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	September 2015 results
1	1	1	1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	79.15	42-3-0
3	3	3	3	2	ALEX POVETKIN	32.53	23-1-0
2	2	2	2	3	VITALI KLITSCHKO	32.36	27-2-0	--last rated win -37 months.
5	5	4	4	4	TYSON FURY	29.56	14-0-0
7	6	5	5	5	CZAR GLAZKOV	24.60	10-0-1

 

November 2015 rankings: Unfortunately that was Alex's only month at #2. 

The same month Povetkin rose to #2, #4 Tyson Fury upset Wladimir Klitschko. This pushed Klitschko to #2, and Povetkin back to #3, despite a win over Mariusz Wach.

Nov 2014	June 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	October 2015 results
5	4	4	4	1	TYSON FURY	63.29	15-0-0	UD 12 #1 WLAD KLITSCHKO
1	1	1	1	2	WLAD KLITSCHKO	55.96	42-4-0	L UD 12 #4 TYSON FURY
3	3	3	2	3	ALEX POVETKIN	32.71	24-1-0	TKO 12 #145 MARIUSZ WACH
2	2	2	3	4	VITALI KLITSCHKO	31.65	27-2-0	--last rated win -38 months.
6	5	5	5	5	CZAR GLAZKOV	24.60	10-0-1

 

January 2017 rankings: Povetkin takes over as interim champion!

Despite remaining #3 for all of 2016, Povetkin became champ in early 2017 after beating Johann Duhaupas. With Fury and Klitschko's rematch postponed (and eventually cancelled) both Fury and Klitschko fell into inactivity, as did Povetkin. That left the interim belt with #4 Deontay Wilder for a month, before Povetkin's win re-established him as an active fighter.

The fight with Duhaupas happened after Povetkin's PED drama unfolded over 2016. Originally pitted against Deontay Wilder in June, that fight was cancelled when Povetkin tested positive for Meldonium, a substance only recently banned. Povetkin was scheduled against Bermane Stiverne but tested positive for Ostarine, and Stiverne refused to fight; Duhaupas was a last-minute replacement.

Nov 2015	Feb 2016	Aug 2016	Dec 2016	Jan 2017	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	December 2016 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	61.99	15-0-0	--last rated win -13 months.
2	2	2	2	2	WLAD KLITSCHKO	50.56	42-4-0	--last rated win -20 months.
3	3	3	3	3	ALEX POVETKIN	33.51	25-1-0	KO 6 #18 JOHANN DUHAUPAS [new interim title holder]
6	5	4	4	4	DEONTAY WILDER	27.26	13-0-0
22	15	5	5	5	ANTHONY JOSHUA	26.33	11-0-0	TKO 3 #78 ERIC MOLINA

 

May 2017 rankings: Povetkin drops out of top 3 after 7 years and 5 months 

Povetkin held the SportsRatings Interim Heavyweight Title for four months. In May, After 7 years and 5 months in the top 3, Povetkin dropped to #4 following Anthony Joshua's win over Wlad Klitschko. Again Klitschko stayed above Povetkin in the rankings at #3, pushing Alex to #4. Therefore, Povetkin's official dates of holding the interim belt were from December 17, 2016 to April 29, 2017, about 4 1/2 months.

Jan 2017	Feb 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	April 2017 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	59.29	15-0-0	--last rated win -17 months.
5	5	5	5	2	ANTHONY JOSHUA	42.94	12-0-0	TKO 11 #2 WLAD KLITSCHKO [new interim title holder]
2	2	2	2	3	WLAD KLITSCHKO	33.92	42-5-0	L TKO 11 #5 ANTHONY JOSHUA
3	3	3	3	4	ALEX POVETKIN	33.51	25-1-0
4	4	4	4	5	DEONTAY WILDER	28.69	14-0-0

 

June 2017 rankings: Povetkin back in the top three!

It seemed that nothing would keep Alex Povetkin out of the #3 spot. Not losing to Klitschko, not ascending to #2, and not falling to #4. Because the month after he was pushed out of the top 3 he was right back in as Wlad Klitschko dropped to #4 due to his extended time without a rated win. Povetkin had finally passed Klitschko—not from beating him in the ring, but by outlasting him at the top.

Feb 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	June 2017	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	May 2017 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	58.60	15-0-0	--last rated win -18 months.
5	5	5	2	2	ANTHONY JOSHUA	42.94	12-0-0	[Interim title holder]
3	3	3	4	3	ALEX POVETKIN	33.51	25-1-0
2	2	2	3	4	WLAD KLITSCHKO	33.44	42-5-0	--last rated win -25 months.
4	4	4	5	5	DEONTAY WILDER	28.69	14-0-0

 

October 2018 rankings: Povetkin falls out of top three (for good?)

Povetkin beat Andrey Rudenko, Christian Hammer, and David Price over the next year to set up a big fight with Anthony Joshua in Wembley Stadium for Joshua's WBA and IBF belts, as well as the SportsRatings Heavyweight Title. Povetkin lost to Joshua via 7th round TKO, his 2nd loss and his first by stoppage. He fell to #4, and it looked like his long reign in the top 3—now 104 total months over the last 8 years—was over. Joshua captured the outright SportsRatings title for the first time, something Povetkin would never do.

July 2017	Dec 2017	Mar 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	September 2018 results
2	2	2	2	1	ANTHONY JOSHUA	53.28	15-0-0	TKO 7 #3 ALEX POVETKIN
1	1	1	1	2	TYSON FURY	47.88	16-0-0
5	4	4	4	3	DEONTAY WILDER	33.39	16-0-0
3	3	3	3	4	ALEX POVETKIN	25.53	28-2-0	L TKO 7 #2 ANTHONY JOSHUA
4	5	5	5	5	WLAD KLITSCHKO	24.64	42-5-0	--last rated win -41 months.

 

January 2021 rankings: Back in the top three!

Over the next two years Povetkin fell as low as #6, and he remained there after a draw vs. Michael Hunter. But in August of 2020 he knocked out #5 Dillian Whyte, and with the help of inactivity by Deontay Wilder (after his loss to Tyson Fury) Povetkin was back in the top three again.

July 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2020	Dec 2020	Jan 2021	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	December 2020 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	53.79	18-0-1
4	4	2	2	2	ANTHONY JOSHUA	47.27	17-1-0	KO 9 #6 KUBRAT PULEV
5	6	4	4	3	ALEX POVETKIN	28.60	30-2-1
3	3	3	3	4	DEONTAY WILDER	28.41	18-1-1	--last rated win -13 months.
2	2	5	5	5	ANDY RUIZ JR	25.82	13-2-0	--last rated win -18 months.

 

April 2021 rankings: Out of the top three for good

Povetkin had a rough time after the first Dillian Whyte fight on August 22. He had to pull out of the rematch scheduled for November 21 due to having Covid, and it was eventually rescheduled for March 27, 2021. A lackluster Povetkin didn't look like himself at all and lost via 4th round TKO. He announced his retirement on June 13.

Sep 2020	Dec 2020	Jan 2021	Mar 2021	Apr 2021	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	March 2021 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	52.68	18-0-1	--last rated win -13 months.
2	2	2	2	2	ANTHONY JOSHUA	47.27	17-1-0	[Interim title holder]
3	3	4	4	3	DEONTAY WILDER	27.48	18-1-1	--last rated win -16 months.
10	9	8	10	4	DILLIAN WHYTE	26.35	14-2-0	TKO 4 #3 ALEX POVETKIN
5	5	5	5	5	ANDY RUIZ JR	24.88	13-2-0	--last rated win -21 months.
4	4	3	3	6	ALEX POVETKIN	20.22	30-3-1	L TKO 4 #10 DILLIAN WHYTE

 

January 2023 rankings: Out of the top ten—first time since January 2008

Povetkin's long run in the top ten comes to an end as he slides out due to inactivity. The SportsRatings rankings don't look at whether a fighter is "retired" or not, just whether he's been fighting, so Povetkin started losing points in September of 2021 (his last win was August of 2020). 

Apr 2021	Oct 2021	June 2022	Sep 2022	Jan 2023	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Sept-Dec 2022 results
1	1	1	1	1	TYSON FURY	55.93	21-0-1	TKO 10 #59 DEREK CHISORA
26	2	2	2	2	OLEKSANDR USYK	41.55	4-0-0
5	6	4	3	3	ANDY RUIZ JR	24.54	15-2-0	UD 12 #38 LUIS ORTIZ
7	8	6	6	4	JOE JOYCE	22.29	10-0-0	KO 11 #7 JOSEPH PARKER
11	11	5	5	5	FRANK SANCHEZ	21.07	7-0-0	TKO 9 #97 CARLOS NEGRON
2	3	3	4	6	ANTHONY JOSHUA	20.26	17-3-0	--last rated win -24 months.
4	4	8	8	7	DILLIAN WHYTE	17.99	15-3-0	MD 10 #62 JERMAINE FRANKLIN
3	5	11	14	8	DEONTAY WILDER	17.83	19-2-1	KO 1 #17 ROBERT HELENIUS
18	14	13	9	9	JUSTIS HUNI	17.37	4-0-0	UD 10 #190 KIKI TOA LEUTELE
19	19	10	11	10	ZHAN KOSSOBUTSKIY	16.58	6-0-0	KO 3 #91 HUSSEIN MUHAMED
6	7	9	10	11	ALEX POVETKIN	16.34	30-3-1	--last rated win -28 months.

Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius round-by-round scoring

 #13 Deontay Wilder is on the comeback trail vs. a revitalized #16 Robert Helenius who is looking for one last run at glory.

Wilder (42-2-1, 41 KOs) hasn't won a fight since beating Luis Ortiz in 2019. Since they he'd dropped two fights to #1 Tyson Fury, the first a big loss, the 2nd a back-and-forth classic where Fury was the last man standing. 

Helenius (31-3-0) had suffered his third loss, to Gerald Washington, and was relegated to gatekeeper status against Adam Kownacki, who was undefeated and in the top ten. Helenius shocked the boxing world by handing Kownacki his first loss via TKO, and he won the rematch in much the same fashion, putting him in line for a bigger fight.

The two have sparred a lot, with Helenius playing the part of Tyson Fury for Wilder. Wilder has been ranked as high as #2, while Helenius was actually at #4 in 2011 and again in 2013. The winner tonight will be back in the top ten; Wilder was there just a few months ago but Helenius hasn't been there since 2015.

Two other top 100 heavyweight matchups were on the undercard:

• #45 Gurgen "Big Gug" Hovhannisyan took on #90 Michael Polite Coffie. Hovhannisyan won and raised his record to 4-0 as Coffie couldn't answer the bell for round 7. Big Gug will move into the top 40 as Coffie exits the top 100.
• #6 Frank Sanchez battled #99 Carlos Negron. Sanchez was fighting very aggressively but somewhat sloppily, which allowed Negron to stay in it with his jab. In the 9th round however, Sanchez connected with a solid right that put Negron down hanging on the ropes. He beat the count but it was stopped within the round. Sanchez will slip past Anthony Joshua to our #5 spot in our November rankings.

Wilder vs. Helenius round-by-round scoring:

1. Both staying at distance to start. Helenius moving forward but not super-agressively like I expected, in Fury mode. He isn't trying to crowd and wrestle Wilder. Wilder goes for the home run but whiffs early! Other than that, he's keeping his distance. Wilder connects and Helenius pushes him back across the ring. Body shot by Helenius. Corners Wilder but doesn't do anything, staying away a lot more than I though. Wilder right hand counter puts Helenius ON THE CANVAS and it's over.

Wow. That was quick.

Robert Helenius chose a strategy that wasn't going to do anything but put him out. He didn't use any kind of strategy that could have worked. He stayed at distance: punching distance for Wilder's long arms.

And let's be clear: this fight had KO written all over it, sooner or later. I thought it would last to the 7th round (wishful thinking for an interesting fight). Helenius is the perfect opponent for Wilder, from Wilder's standpoint.

Wilder is back in our top ten, and deservedly so. A lot of his decline in our rankings was the lack of a "W" since 2019. He'll be around #7 come November. Helenius had his resurgence but he'll drop well outside the top 25. His short-lived comeback might be over for good; if he continues he'll remain at the gatekeeper level, unless he exposes another Kownacki along the way.

#6 Joe Joyce vs. #7 Joseph Parker round-by-round scoring: Winner gets top 5

Joe Joyce, Olympic Silver Medalist, takes on #7 Joseph Parker in Manchester, England. The winner will break into the top 5 for the first time. Joyce is 14-0-0 and Parker is 30-2-0 with losses only to Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte.

Bout is set to begin in minutes.

Round-by-round scoring:

1. Jabs and dipping for body shots from both right away. Joyce as usual is working the jab, getting some in, gentle jabs. More jabs from Joyce and Parker hooking to the body in return. Parker leaps forward and scores to the head. Parker moves forward again but Joyce returns with a big 1-2. Big right by Parker is blocked. Close but maybe a little bit more by Joyce. Joyce 10-9
2. Joyce walking Parker down but Parker lunges out of it punching himself. Joyce chases Parker down and scores. Good comeback from Parker. Big shots from both, interesting back and forth, decent punches but neither is hurt. Parker gets against the ropes and circles out. Both had their moments. 10-10; Joyce 20-19
3. Joyce remains busy, coming forward, Parker waiting more on his strikes. Good left by Joyce backs Parker up. Joyce eats everything Parker has and returns fire and he has Parker leaning over and scrambling. Still 1:30 left in the round. Good uppercut by Parker, Joyce doesn't flinch. Parker catches Joyce coming in, has a much better last 30 seconds but it's still Joyce's round. 10-9; Joyce 30-28
4. Joyce looks a bit more tentative now, not walking down as much. Parker with lunging big punch to get out of the corner again, Joyce with dozens of smaller punches. Good stiff right from Parker. Joyce staying farther away this round, trying to time Parker's counters, gets hit by another one. Two big rights by Parker, one misses completely, the other slightly connects. Parker connected with the harder shots Parker 10-9; Joyce 39-38
5. Joyce peppering away flustering Parker over the first minute. Parker hasn't had his power shots this round, isn't trying as many or connecting, except for one low blow. Parker lunges out and they trade in the center of the ring. Joyce's volume wins this one. Joyce 10-9; Joyce 49-47
6. Joyce really coming after Parker this round right off the bell. Unloading the big shots for a full minute, lots of damage. Parker looked bad for a bit but looks like he's holding up well, Joyce slowing down a bit. Parker gets in a few counters as Joyce slows down.  But Joyce doesn't stop. Joyce 10-9; Joyce 59-56
7. Parker connects early with burst of energy, Joyce is undaunted. Parker whiffs with big uppercut. Joyce peppering him with volume of small punches. Joyce clinches him against ropes for a small rest, but he's right back to the volume, has Parker against the ropes again. Parker hanging on. Parker is cut bad, now both are winging punches. Joyce 10-9; 69-65
8. Joyce pressing the action, Parker fighting back with desperation. Trading big shots. Joyce very systematic with his approach, Parker more unpredictable. Both slow down after the minute mark. Good shots from Parker but Joyce comes back strong. Parker comes back too. Parker fighting to survive with the cut, Joyce pushing for the stoppage but neither fighter has been wobbled all fight. Parker clearly falling farther behind. Joyce 10-9; 79-74.
9. Parker's occasional counters just aren't fazing Joyce, who keeps moving forward. Huge uppercut from Parker is completely ignored by Joyce who goes on the attack immediately. Both load up for huge shots and both miss. Parker walking in circles to get away from Joyce. Better round from Parker but did he really win it? not really. 10-10; Joyce 89-84
10. Fighting in the pocket a minute in, head to head trading uppercut attempts. Joyce keeping up the volume once they separate. Big lunging shot from Parker is blocked. Parker times Joyce's entry well and gets some good work in. Funny end with both clowning. Another close one, if Parker gets these with the judges he has a chance 10-10; Joyce 99-94
11. Joyce going for it big like he did in round six. He slows down after a minute. Then a HUGE left from Joyce puts Parker down, and he's not getting up, even if he had he was totally out. JOYCE BY KO

Incredible last round by Joyce, the first 30 seconds of round 11 tired Parker out, setting him up for the huge KO punch. He hadn't been hurt by Parker all day, and his corner decided it was time to just go for broke, knowing he would hurt Parker much more than he would get hurt.

Through 10 round we had Joyce up 5 rounds, but with 3 10-10 rounds it could have been close, and with 2 rounds left it could have been a very close affair. But Joyce decided to go for the sprint finish.

Joyce was ahead by 2, 3, and 5 rounds, pretty close to mine, which would be 2, 5, and 8 giving the 10-10 rounds to either fighter.

This is the finish I expected—a Joyce win, not necessarily by KO—because the winner was set to jump ahead of Anthony Joshua in our ratings, and it wouldn't make good sense to have Parker ahead of Joshua. Joyce, on the other hand, is undefeated and this win—the first stoppage of Joseph Parker—shows he deserves a high ranking. He'll move up to #4, his highest ranking yet.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs. Luis Ortiz

Round by round scoring:

• Round One: Southpaw Ortiz vs. Ruiz leads to usual pawing. Jabs from Ortiz. Combo from Ruiz. Body shot from Ruiz. Big combo from Kong near the end, probably wins the round for Ortiz. 10-9.
• Round Two: Less feeling out in round two, rumbling right away with shots from Ruiz. Jab from Ruiz, jabs back from Ortiz. Body shots from Ortiz. Ruiz knocks Ortiz down with a quick combo, Ortiz takes the 9 count. Ruiz puts him down again quickly. This might be over. Ortiz is grappling him to stay alive. Ortiz fires back. Crazy last minute as Ruiz tries to finish him but Ortiz is fighting back. Big shots from both at the end, and Ortiz survives. 10-7 Ruiz. 19-17 Ruiz
• Round Three: Ruiz is a bit tired after last round and Ortiz a bit recovered. Ortiz is trying to dance now and jab. Body shot from Ruiz. Big body shot from Ruiz again. Jab from Ortiz. Big whiffs from Ruiz. Not much connected but probably still from Ruiz. 10-9; Ruiz 29-26
• Round Four: Ortis is playing matador with Ruiz, lunging in for jabs. Ruiz waiting to unload a big shot. Head shot from Ruiz connects. Ruiz is looking surprisingly defensive. Ortiz did little but Ruiz less. 10-9 Ortiz; 38-36 Ruiz
• Round Five: Snapping jab from Ortiz. Not much action until mid-round. Jabs from Ortiz, return from Ruiz later in the round. Lots of stalking by both guys and feigns. Not enough to go on there. 10-10; 48-46 Ruiz
• Round Six: Neither fighter scores in the first minute; finally some clashing in middle of round, Ruiz gets a good shot in. Almost clash of heads again. Very little action. Jabs from Ortiz but most don't land. Solid shot at the end by Ortiz. Makes the round another 10-10; 58-56 Ruiz
• Round Seven: 1-2 from Ortiz to start, Ruiz fires back, blocked. Ruiz looks like he's more serious this round. Firing more shots but Ortiz's defense is good. Good exchange mid-round from both. Ruiz gets a good left in. Ruiz ducks way under a jab and spins out of the corner. Big body shot from Ruiz backs Ortiz up, flurry of punches on top of head puts Ortiz down again. Ruiz 10-8; 68-64 
• Round Eight: Ortiz is looking a big gunshy obviously but looks ok. Jabs from Ortiz leads to flurry where Ortiz does some good damage. Ortiz puts Ruiz in the corner but lets him out, still jabbing. Hard body shot by Ruiz, Ortiz ducks away from more, still jabbing late in the round. Ruiz misses with left. Ortiz much more active this round. Ortiz 10-9; Ruiz 77-74
• Round Nine: Big Exchange to start, Ruiz goes down but ruled a slip. Both fighters got hit hard. Another wild exchange, like fighting cats, then back to distance stalking. Lunging jab by Ortiz connects. Ortiz 10-9; Ruiz 86-84
• Round Ten: Ruiz comes inside and gets hit with a hook, in addition to dozens of jabs from Ortiz in the first half of the round. Ortiz opening up a bit more, connecting with the jab down the middle consistently. Ruiz's only 2nd attempt of the round is blocked. Ortiz 10-9; Ruiz 95-94
• Round Eleven: Ruiz sneaks in right hand, now a jab. Rest of first half of round is quiet. Huge shot from Ruiz who jumps on Ortiz. More shots from Ruiz. Ortiz trying to go back to jabs but he's weak. Ruiz has slowed down again, maybe looking for KO moment. Ruiz 10-9; 105-103
• Round Twelve: Ortiz moving in, going for it, KO or get KOed. He's mixing it pretty well with Ruiz too. Can he avoid the KO is the question. Good first minute, good uppercut from Ortiz. Ruiz backing up now, Ortiz slows down. Three lefts in a row from Ortiz. Ruiz fires back now in last minute. Ortiz is outboxing Ruiz, huge shot against the ropes. Ruiz fires back. Ortiz 10-9; Ruiz 114-113

Actually turned into a very close fight that could be scored for Ortiz despite the 3 knockdowns. We have it 114-113 with two 10-10 rounds; split those and Ruiz wins a split decision, 114-111, 113-112, and 112-113.

Scored as a whole fight there's no question, but round by round it might be surprising.

But it's unanimous: 113-112, 114-111 all for Andy Ruiz.

So in the end, our cards were very, very close to the actuals, 114-111, 113-112 for Ruiz; our one Ortiz card was flipped one round for Ruiz. Giving 10-10 rounds really does give a better impression of how close a fight is going to be scored.

Ruiz will retain his #3 spot in our rankings, while Ortiz, in the top ten a few years back, will tumble into the 2nd half of the top 100, as he hasn't had many good wins the last several years, and has 3 losses now.

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Anthony Joshua II: Live Round-by-Round Scoring

SportsRatings #2 Oleksandr Usyk vs. #3 Anthony Joshua fighting in Saudi Arabia in a rematch of their fight from last September where Usyk took Joshua's belts.

Usyk is 19-0-0 mostly at cruiserweight where he unified the belts; he's a gold medalist at heavyweight

Joshua is 24-2-0 as a pro after winning the gold in the super heavyweight division in the 2012 Olympics. He avenged his loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. and now attempts to do the same against Usyk.

Neither would earn the SportsRatings belt with a win as Tyson Fury's "retirement" doesn't count; he's still considered "active" and neither is within striking distance of his rating. The winner will be ranked #2 in our system.

Round by Round scoring:

• Round One: Joshua looking so far like he's boxing "clean" rather than making it dirty, at least at the very early going. Jab from Joshua. Lots of pawing by Usyk. Kind of a stalemate right now at range. Good lunging punch by Usyk. Big clinch with pressure applied by Joshua, broken up by the ref. Like many first rounds, not enough happened to be used to decide the fight. 10-10
• Round Two: More of the chess match at range to start. Both are active, almost hyper by heavyweight standards, but not connecting with anything. Feigns all around. Joshua blocks Usyk's combo. Weak body shot by Joshua. Decent hook. Another decent hook by Joshua. Body shot by Joshua. Joshua not allowing openings so far. Jabbing as he moves forward. 1-2 by Usyk with a return by Joshua. 10-9 Joshua; 20-19
• Round Three: Joshua staying contained and careful. Usyk buzzing around him, but having some trouble with range so far. Some inside wrestling the ref allowed them to work it out. Joshua uppercut misses and Usyk connects with a straight shot. Inconclusive round, hopefully there aren't too many of these: 10-10; Joshua 30-29
• Round Four: Usyk comes out aggressively, backs off to buzzing around mode again. He's very hard to hit but Joshua's defense is solid too, not many shots of consequence getting through despite pretty high work rate. Usyk taking more chances now in the 4th, mixing it up more. AJ goes to the body. Hits Usyk's gloves hard. Constant head movement from Usyk, who connects with a good hook and good combo followup. He's throwing more actual punches this round instead of feigns and pawing. Good lunging punch to end the round. 10-9 Usyk; 39-39
• Round Five: Usyk connects, as does AJ. Good back and forth his round in the first minute. Body shot from AJ is low and the round is paused midway. Good bodyshot from AJ this time. Both are feigning a lot. Even round after 2 mins. More feigns and little action in the last minute. Another 10-10; 49-49. The scores might be all over the place.
• Round Six: AJ gets in a short shot after a lot of patience with Usyk's head movement. Lots of work for not much gain and Usyk gets it back. AJ trying to walk him down and has him against the ropes for a moment. Usyk pushes his way out to the center. AJ backing him up now but Usyk comes back swinging, mostly blocked by AJ. Another tough round to score but Joshua had the only brief moment of scoring. Joshua 10-9; 59-58
• Round Seven: AJ wrestles Usyk again then holds his head while punching, he's finally trying to make a "dirty" fight out of it as many expected. Swings a bit wild in chasing Usyk's movement. Good jab by Joshua. Both fighters missing most of the time still, or getting blocked. Lots of whiffs at the end. Once again I'm punting, to reflect how wide the scoring difference might be. 10-10; Joshua 69-68
• Round Eight: They're having trouble with the ring being wet like in the last fight. Stiff jab by Usyk. Good body shot by AJ. Three lefts in a row by Usyk connect, another body shot by AJ. Several head shots by Usyk, a big return by AJ. Volume certainly in Usyk favor, but body shots are bothering Usyk. Usyk is now getting through regularly, though nothing is hurting AJ yet. But he's slowing AJ down. They're really trading at the end in a fitful round. Usyk 10-9; 78-78
• Round Nine: Starting to think the Ukraine judge will have a wide UD for Usyk, the UK judge the same for AJ, and the other judge call it a draw. AJ is hunting Usyk now. AJ grabs back of Usyk's head again and delivers body shots. AJ gets thru with a few shots then ties him up. Close range fighting  and AJ is going nuts, uppercuts and back of head shots, but he has Usyk in some trouble late in the round. Usyk spins away and resets and evades. Joshua's best round despite some questionable downward blows 10-9; Joshua 88-87
• Round Ten: Usyk very active to start the round. not letting Joshua capitalize on last round. A minute in he's doing some good work and has AJ a bit flustered, peppering him with quick shots. Big counter from AJ has Usyk stunned, AJ wrestles him though and ref intervenes. Great uppercut from Usyk but AJ takes it well. Now Usyk is adding the volume; Joshua looks tired now. A flurry by Usyk has AJ standing still. This round looked a lot like the previous fight. Usyk 10-9; 97-97
• Round Eleven: Usyk using his speed to confuse Joshua, who has tired but still gets in the body shots. Usyk is loading up on volume, Joshua going for the big shots. Back and forth round. Good jab by Usyk. More combos by Usyk. AJ is looking flustered like last fight, being outboxed. 10-9 Usyk; 107-106 Usyk
• Round Twelve: Big effort from both fighters at the start. Usyk sticking and moving as Joshua lunges in. The speed difference is notable now. Joshua catches Usyk with a left hook and two followups. Joshua stumbles as if going for a takedown against the ropes. Joshua jumps in and clinches again, twice trying to wrestle, a completely desparate move. Usyk is winning the boxing portion of the round though. AJ's attempts on making the fight dirty started way too late. This looks desperate by AJ and won't be well-received by the judges. Usyk 10-9; Usyk 117-115

Our score includes *four* 10-10 rounds, meaning we could have a split decision with AJ winning one card 115-113, and losing one card very wide, 117-111. The decisive card from our result would be 115-113 Usyk assuming no 10-10 rounds.

The judges say: 115-113 Joshua; 115-113 Usyk; and 116-112 Usyk, almost exactly what our scoring determined after apportioning the 10-10 rounds to each or splitting them.

Though Joshua did much better in this fight the result was largely the same, and he loses two in a row and is no longer one of the very top tier names in the heavyweight division. Now it's Fury and Usyk and everyone else.

Joshua is really leading the charge to celebrate Usyk's win, makes one wonder what his future plans are.

Filip Hrgovic vs. Zhilei Zhang Live Round-by-Round Scoring

The penultimate fight prior to Joshua-Uysk II is #14 Filip Hrgovic vs. #55 Zhilei Zhang. Both fighters are Olympic medalists and undefeated in the pros, and both stand 6' 6". Hrgovic is the younger fighter by 7 years.

Hrgovic (14-0-0) won a Bronze medal in the 2016 Olympics and has a perfect record so far. Lately he's been less than active and some think he's regressed, but he remains a feared prospect, turned down by many prospective opponents.

Zhang (24-0-1) won a Silver medal in the 2012 Olympics. He recently fought Jerry Forrest to a draw which put the only blemish on his otherwise perfect pro record. 

Round-by-round scoring:

• Round One: Good shot from Hrgovic as the fighters stand at a distance appropriate to their height. Hrgovic mostly doing more work until a minute left when Zhang lands a right hook to the ear that knocks Hrgovic down and makes the round easy to score. Hrgovic looks mostly recovered by the end of the round but already a surprise. 10-8 Zhang
• Round Two: Hrgovic back to the jab, both looking casual as they did most of the last round. Hrgovic more active but Zhang picking his spots as he pushes in for a combo. Huge right from Hrgovic but Zhang takes it well. Another combo rocks Zhang who doesn't have time to set for his slower attack, but he forces his way inside for a combo. Hrgovic's attack is starting to wear on Zhang by the end of the round. 10-9 Hrgovic; 19-18 Zhang.
• Round Three: Accidental clash of heads early as Zhang rushes inside, causing a bad cut on Hrgovic in the hairline...they're resetting. Good. Good jab by Zhang but Hrgovic returns a few of his own. Zhang's rushing attacks are bothering Hrgovic but other than that, Hrgovic is controlling the ring. Both are covering up well but throwing pretty hard shots too. Pretty even round but Hrgovic probably takes it. 10-9 Hrgovic; 28-28
• Round Four: Combo from Hrgovic. Zhang has the center though and stalks him. Good solid 1-2 from Hrgovic. Zhang is taking everything well so far, and just when it looks like he's getting a bit overwhelmed he returns fire and backs Hrgovic up. Great uppercut from Zhang. Both are looking a bit tired now, they've both taken hard shots, even if most have been blocked. Zhang has Hrgovic in corner; the ref calls break every time Zhang gets inside. Another close round with back and forth but Hrgovic is more active, even if Zhang had the best punch of the round. 10-9 Hrgovic; 38-37 Hrgovic
• Round Five: Dull first minute, then Hrgovic starts to outwork Zhang again. He's faster and is staying out of reach when not punching. Zhang starting to look tired in the last minute. Zhang needs another punch like he had in the first round but he's done nothing this round. Until the final seconds when he has a great counter that stuns Hrgovic. But it's too little too late. 10-9 Hrgovic; 48-46 Hrgovic
• Round Six: Zhang is just wandering into range and getting pummeled. The difference here is not as much skill as age and shape. But Zhang is having a moment in the middle of the round, hitting Hrgovic and chasing him around. Hrgovic clinches and both are tired. No holding at all is being allowed though, not for even a second. Zhang has Hrgovic in the corner again as the round ends. 10-9 Zhang; Hrgovic 57-56
• Round Seven: Both look tired to start the 7th. Big shots from Hrgovic early. Huge punch from Hrgovic and Zhang takes it but that was a potential knockdown against most people. Zhang has slowed down a lot after last round's activity. He's a step slow too as Hrgovic conects with a big left hook. Zhang has done nothing in the first two minutes and tries to clinch which is immediately shut down by the ref. Hrgovic is hardly energetic but he's doing all the work this round. 10-9 Hrgovic; 67-65
• Round Eight: False start to the round gives both an extra breather. Great counter by Zhang as Hrgovic comes in but it doesn't have an effect, and now Hrgovic is stepping it up. Most of his punches are blocked by Zhang's peek-a-boo guard but they're adding up, and he goes to the body too. Zhang isn't firing back either, making things easy for Filip. Zhang has nothing on his pawing punches, making Hrgovic smell blood. Another clinch for 1/2 second. Zhang isn't running though, he's standing right in front which isn't a great strategy if he's not throwing. 10-9 Hrgovic; 77-74
• Round Nine: More confusion at the start of this round. Both fighters are slow at the start but Hrgovic is trying to pick his shots better I think. Wet spots on the canvas, which delayed both the last two rounds, are causing some slipping and the action is stopped. Squeaky shoes might lead to a slip here. Now it's Hrgovic trying to hold, it seems he's using a lot of energy trying to put Zhang away and is getting a bit tired. Zhang is at least firing back this round and he has another good moment near the end of the round, not letting Hrgovic off the hook. Great late round from Zhang 10-9; Hrgovic 86-84
• Round Ten: Scoring might be interesting here now. Let's see if Zhang has anything left after his late flurry. Hrgovic keeping him at bay so far. Neither fighter is particularly spry right now but Hrgovic is lighter on his feet for sure. Combos from Hrgovic but not much is landing flush. Zhang looks spent, tries to clinch but we know that's not allowed today. Hrgovic pummeling away at Zhang who shuffles back and resets, not throwing back at all. He gets in one good punch late but clear round for Hrgovic 10-9; 96-93
• Round Eleven: Zhang's big lunge one minute in doesn't land, and that might be all he tries this round. Otherwise Hrgovic is pounding away. He's getting frustrated clearly, and he jumps in and hooks Zhang's neck before the re steps in. Now Zhang is trying to have another big moment but it's not quite as big as the other two. Hrgovic is staying away for a bit but moves back in to unload. Zhang has gone down from an apparent slip at the end of the round. 10-10; Hrgovic 106-103
• Round Twelve: Hrgovic wants the stoppage this round and is putting everything into it. Zhang's face is looking puffy but he's staying upright. Now Hrgovic is slowing down to try to pick his shots and he has Zhang in the corner who clinches. Zhang's lack of firing back has hurt him the whole fight. He almost repeats the ear-hook from round one but it misses. Huge body shot by Hrgovic. Zhang clinches again. 30 seconds left and Hrgovic wants to unload. Zhang runs away at the end to avoid any possibility of KO. Hrgovic 10-9; Hrgovic 116-112

From my perspective it's a pretty clear Hrgovic win, but other "scorecards" I've seen around the web suggest a closer result, so who knows. The early rounds for Hrgovic might have gone to Zhang which would make it close, but from the middle on he really only clearly won two rounds. 

The judges say: 115-112, 115-112, 114-113 for Hrgovic

A bit closer than my score but all the same, a close but clear win for Hrgovic. But something tells me that no one will be shaking in their boots in fear of Hrgovic after this fight; he's far too easy to hit and got himself in trouble on three separate occasions. Many top fighters might have ducked him, but I doubt that will be such a big problem in the future. And neither Joshua or Usyk looks to have that much to worry about if he's their next foe.

As for Zhang? He loses his perfect record and really, his career management is to blame. He waited until age 37 for a true step-up fight, wasting several years fighting nobodies even before the pandemic. He could have had a much better career and probably deserved it; now he looks too old and slow to make an impact, even if he was impressive at times against Hrgovic and certainly durable.

Predictions for Year-end 2022 (and review of 2021 picks)

One year ago we issued predictions for who would hold the SportsRatings belts in every MMA weight class at the end of the year. Well we've reached the end of the year and our picks were...mixed. Not bad, but mixed.

Interestingly we see that some sportsbooks are now offering odds for year-end UFC belt-holders. Where did they get that idea? Hmm. (I really have no idea, they might have done this before, but without knowing for sure, I'm taking credit for inspiring them)

Anyway here we go again, this time reviewing and grading our picks from a year ago before issuing new picks for the end-of-year.

Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Jon Jones  2) Francis Ngannou 3) Stipe Miocic  WC: #18 Ciryl Gane

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Francis Ngannou	HW	85.22	10-2-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #3 Ciryl Gane
2	2	Stipe Miocic	HW	65.10	15-4-0	UFC	#6 Derrick Lewis?
3	3	Ciryl Gane	HW	40.11	8-0-0	UFC	•1/22 vs. #1 Francis Ngannou
4	4	Daniel Cormier	HW	32.85	18-3-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Philip De Fries	HW	30.91	13-6-0	KSW	?

Last Year's Grade: B+

Ok, so Jon Jones didn't happen but our logic was sound: he would only need to win once to get the title, as opposed to Ngannou or Miocic who would need to beat Jones after cementing the title. Instead, Ngannou got the run-around and Stipe was inactive and Jones never fought. But we had the right idea and picked Francis to win the first fight. And our long-shot pick for Gane came as close as it could...he even garnered an interim UFC title.

This year's picks: Possible HW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Francis Ngannou  2) Ciryl Gane  3) Stipe Miocic

Analysis: We're not one of those who think Gane is a shoo-in despite our strong support for him last year. And if he beats Ngannou, he'll probably fight twice more this year while if Francis wins, there's a chance he won't fight again, which would mean he holds the SportsRatings belt the rest of 2022. So it's as much math as anything else in what seems like a 50/50 fight: if Francis wins he's champ for 2022, if Gane wins he will defend twice more...probably against Stipe for one. There's really no one else active that has a good shot at the top. Hell, Philip De Fries is #5, fighting in the HW wasteland at KSW.

Long-shot/wild card: Jon Jones. We think he counts here now, a full year after not showing up anywhere. Who knows if he ever fights again, let alone at heavyweight? We think he'll be back and that probably means he'll fight at HW, so he can't be counted out. But he's a long shot this time around.

Vegas thinks: Ngannou, Gane, Jones. So they clearly put more stock in Jones showing up that I do, and kind of counting out Stipe, too.

Light Heavyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Jan Blachowicz 3) Glover Teixeira  WC: #10 Jiri Pochazka

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Jon Jones	LH	72.62	20-1-0	UFC	Heavyweight?
2	2	Vadim Nemkov	LH	52.68	9-2-0	Bell	[Interim LH title holder] #5 Corey Anderson
3	3	Glover Teixeira	LH	51.76	26-6-0	UFC	#9 Jiri Prochazka
4	4	Jan Blachowicz	LH	44.43	22-7-0	UFC	#15 Alexander Rakic
5	5	Corey Anderson	LH	32.06	11-4-0	Bell	#2 Vadim Nemkov

Last Year's Grade: C+

Izzy didn't come through for us and Jan fell by the wayside, but putting Glover #3 sort of redeems us as we were among the few who believed he might have a chance. But even in terms of our own ratings he didn't finish with the interim belt: that stayed with Vadim Nemkov who held it at the end of last year! We didn't think there was any way the Bellator fighter would have enough points to stay ahead of all the possibilities from the UFC, but he did as the perfect storm hit.

This year's picks: Possible LH champs for Jan 2023: 1) Vadim Nemkov 2) Magomed Akalaev 3) Jiri Prochazka 

Analysis: This time we're sticking with Vadim...which means he probably gets upset by Corey Anderson. Even if that happens, Anderson is unlikely to stay on top points-wise, but Nemkov could with a win. We also think that the boring, relentless Ankalaev has more chance of going undefeated in 2023 than the flashy, reckless, fun-to-watch Prochazka but the latter can't be counted out. Glover probably loses before the year's out, and Jan probably doesn't work his way back to the top.

Long-shot/wild card: Paul Craig. No one's paying much attention to "BearJew" right now but he's the kind that could have a surprise run to the top like Jan Blachowicz. Currently #12 in our rankings.

Vegas thinks: Prochazka, Teixeira, Rakic. Our last year's wild card is this year's Vegas fave, but Glover's not far behind. Interesting.

Middleweight

Last year's picks: 1) Robert Whittaker 2) Gegard Mousasi 3) Israel Adesanya   WC: Khamzat Chimaev

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Robert Whittaker	MW	54.79	15-5-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
2	2	Israel Adesanya	MW	53.63	11-1-0	UFC	•2/12 vs. #1 Robert Whittaker
3	3	Gegard Mousasi	MW	52.39	39-7-2	Bell	•2/25 #32 Austin Vanderford
4	4	Georges St. Pierre	MW	34.21	24-2-0	UFC	[retired]
5	5	Rafael Lovato Jr.	MW	34.06	7-0-0	Bell	[retired]

Last Year's Grade: A-

Well...what can we say? We got it just about right, with help from statistical fluke that puts Whittaker ahead of Adesanya. Though Izzy beat Whittaker in 2020 he lost his light heavyweight title try and the win over Vettori wasn't quite enough to outpace Whittaker's three wins in a row. Ideally Whittaker would be just behind Izzy but we got the pick right...technically.

This year's picks: Possible MW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Israel Adesanya 2) Robert Whittaker  3) Gegard Mousasi

Analysis: This is another division—like heavyweight—where there is a clear top three (#4 and #5 are long retired). And Adesanya beat Whittaker convincingly last time and should do it again. Mousasi can stay within striking distance but that's probably it as his Bellator division is depleted.

Long-shot/wild card: If it's anyone else he's going to have to come from the UFC. We're going with erstwhile journeyman Chris Curtis, who has made more progress in the last two months than anyone. Possessing a journeyman's 28-8 record Curtis has come out of nowhere with upsets of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen.

Vegas thinks: Adesanya, Whittaker, Brunson. Same as us except Brunson; remember, they're limited to UFC fighters.

Welterweight

Last year's picks: 1) Kamaru Usman 2) Khamzat Chimaev 3) Gilbert Burns  WC: #25 Sean Brady

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Kamaru Usman	WW	96.04	15-0-0	UFC	#3 Leon Edwards/ #4 Vicente Luque
2	2	Gilbert Burns	WW	37.17	13-4-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?
3	3	Leon Edwards	WW	35.67	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
4	4	Vicente Luque	WW	31.98	13-2-0	UFC	#1 Kamaru Usman?
7	5	Belal Muhammad	WW	31.46	15-3-0	UFC	#11 Khamzat Chimaev?

Grade: A

We can't really fault ourselves for putting Khamzat #2, after all it was Covid that delayed his entry into the WW sweepstakes and he still made a lot of progress, up to #11 in our rankings after fighting once last year. And Usman on top was a solid if obvious pick. Burns finished next highest, too. And our Wild Card Sean Brady made a name for himself jumping from #25 to #9. That pick was more impressive than calling on Khamzat like everone else; Brady wasn't on many radars at this time last year.

This year's picks: Possible WW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Kamaru Usman  2) Khamzat Chimaev  3) Leon Edwards

Analysis: Pretty much an exact replay. But not much has changed: Usman is still the best fighter in the world, and Chimaev is still the fighter with the most upward potential. No one is beating Usman of the current suspects. Leon Edwards is most likely, probably, to finally get another crack next.

Long-shot/wild card: Shavkat Rakhmonov. Another hyped prospect, but less well-known than Chimaev, Rakhmonov is 14-0 and might get a big fight if he's impressive vs. Carlson Harris (our #51 WW currently).

Vegas thinks: Usman, Chamaev, Edwards. Ok, but we had it first, last year basically. We were ahead of our time.

Lightweight

Last year's picks:  1) Conor McGregor 2) Charles Oliveira 3) Dustin Poirier  WC: GSP

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next opponent:
1	1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	LW	88.87	15-0-0	UFC	[retired]
3	2	Charles Oliveira	LW	64.26	23-8-0	UFC	[interim LW title holder]  #4 Justin Gaethje
2	3	Dustin Poirier	LW	41.88	23-7-0	UFC	???
4	4	Justin Gaethje	LW	39.79	17-3-0	UFC	#2 Charles Oliveira
5	5	Beneil Dariush	LW	38.54	16-4-1	UFC	•2/26 vs. #6 Islam Makhachev

Grade: B-

Ok, we failed hard here but in a way we were right: McGregor got two shots at the top basically. And that was our logic—if he won he'd hold the title hostage; lose, and he'd get another try. But we ended up with Oliveira close to the top, and Dustin too. We punted on the Wild Card pick with GSP and it shows. Wild, though!

This year's picks: Possible LW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Islam Makhachev  2) Charles Oliveira  3) Beneil Dariush

Analysis: Is Islam inevitable? Sure looks that way. Even with a solid champ in Oliveira and tough competitor in Dariush, Makhachev, currently at #6, is a level above those grapplers. Geathje is the odd man out in likelihood to beat two grapplers, and Dustin's odds are hurt by the high probability that he either retires or takes some time off.

Long-shot/wild card: Arman Tsarukyan. Currently #24 at 14-1, he might be the only guy who can possibly beat Makhachev on the ground. His only loss is to Makhachev, but no one else will out-grapple him as he tries to get to the top for a rematch.

Vegas thinks: Oliveira, Gaethje, Makhachev. All three very close.

Featherweight

Last year's picks: 1) Zabit Magomedsharipov 2) Alexander Volkanovski 3) Patricio Freire  WC: Emmanuel Sanchez

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Alexander Volkanovski	FW	59.86	15-0-0	UFC	#5 Max Holloway
2	2	A.J. McKee	FW	48.22	12-0-0	Bell	#3 Patricio Freire
3	3	Patricio Freire	FW	36.88	19-5-0	Bell	#2 A.J. McKee
4	4	Movlid Khaybulaev	FW	32.39	8-0-1	Prof	?
5	5	Max Holloway	FW	30.63	21-6-0	UFC	#1 Alexander Volkanovski

Last year's grade: B

Well, Zabit never re-emerged like we'd hoped and the Featherweight division ended up much the same as it started 2021, with Volkanovski on top, but AJ McKee bumped Patricio Freire from the top of Bellator. Zabit has fallen to #10 due to inactivity and we're not betting the house on his return. 

This year's picks: Possible FW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Alexander Volkanovski 2) A.J. McKee  3) Max Holloway 

Analysis: There are two camps, UFC and Bellator, and simple math indicates that the winners of the rematches will be #1 and #2. The big question is can Volk beat Max a 3rd time, and can McKee beat Freire a 2nd time? The probable answer to both of those is yes, and with Max far behind on points he's 3rd most likely to end up on top.

Long-shot/wild card: #22 Ilia Topuria. Undefeated, just 24, and in a big fight early against our #6 Movsar Evleov? That gives him a chance to make a big move quick. Is he ready? Probably not this fast, but that's what makes him a wild card. The winner of this fight has a chance to fight for the title soon, and Evleov is too high-ranked to be listed as a long shot.

Vegas thinks: Volanovski, Holloway, Brian Ortega. Since they're rating just the UFC, McKee and Freire aren't in the mix.

Bantamweight

Last year's picks:  1) Aljamain Sterling  2) Bibiano Fernandes  3) Henry Cejudo  WC: TJ Dillashaw

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Henry Cejudo	BW	53.69	10-2-0	UFC	--last rated win -19 months.
2	2	Aljamain Sterling	BW	44.62	14-3-0	UFC	[Interim BW title holder]
3	3	Bibiano Fernandes	BW	41.01	21-2-0	One	--last rated win -26 months.
8	4	Hiromasa Ougikubo	BW	36.36	21-5-1	Rizi	???
15	5	Sergio Pettis	BW	35.93	15-5-0	Bell	Bellator BW tournament

Last year's grade: A+

We award ourselves an ironic A+ because, well, we picked Sterling to hold the title and he does. We also picked Fernandes 2nd and he didn't lose. Neither did Cejudo! Of course Sterling won in less-than-honorable circumstances, Fernandes was idle all year and Cejudo remained retired. But our long-shot pick of TJ Dillashaw wasn't bad, as he made a successful comeback.

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) TJ Dillashaw  2) Petr Yan  3) Kyoji Horiguchi

Analysis: After our luck with Sterling, we see Yan winning the rematch. But we're still not sold on Yan's greatness, and Dillashaw might end up with our belt. Yan is currently #10 due to the DQ loss to Sterling while Dillashaw is #6 after his comeback. Ougikubo is a wild card due to fighting in Rizin, as he's milked most of the points possible from fighting in that org, and will probably lose in 2022 at some point. We also assume Cejudo is retired for good and that Fernandes has been too inactive at his age and will probably lose, too. The real question is: who will win the Bellator Bantamweight tournament? If we knew that, we'd usher that person to the top spot, but it's a tough pick among 8 fighters. We still have confidence in Kyoji Horiguchi who dominated Sergio Pettis until the one-elbow KO did him in.

Long-shot/wild card: Umar Nurmagomedov. Why not? He's just #22 and only 1-0 in the UFC but he's got the potential to make a lot of progress and get there some day. The Nurmagomedov-adjacent fighters move up slowly, though, so this is really a long shot for 2022.

Vegas thinks: Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling (tie) Aldo. Not too different than ours, really. Aldo's inclusion is interesting; we think his comeback run is coming to an end, but it would be great if it continues.

Flyweight

Last year's picks: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Deiveson Figueiredo  3) Brandon Moreno  WC: Adriano Moraes

Dec 2021	Jan 2022	Fighter	WC	Rating	Rated Record	Org	Probable next fight:
1	1	Brandon Moreno	FL	34.66	9-2-2	UFC	•1/22 vs. #8 Deiveson Figueiredo
2	2	Adriano Moraes	FL	30.61	8-2-0	One	#5 Demetrious Johnson
3	3	Alexandre Pantoja	FL	24.69	10-3-0	UFC	Moreno/Figueiredo winner
4	4	Joshua Pacio	FL	24.38	5-1-0	One	?
5	5	Demetrious Johnson	FL	24.00	22-4-1	One	#2 Adriano Moraes

Last year's grade: B-

How were we to know that Mighty Mouse would be upset and Figueiredo would get beat soundly? We at least kept Moreno in the mix at #3—and had Moraes, who beat Johnson, as our long shot (he ended up #2). 

This year's picks: Possible BW champs for Jan 2023: 1) Demetrious Johnson  2) Brandon Moreno  3) Askar Askarov

Analysis: Looking at the top five, it's about 50/50 whether the end-of-2022 champ comes from the UFC or One Championship. And we have to still believe that DJ is the cream of the crop there, whereas in the UFC it's less clear-cut: Moreno is a good possibility, as is Askarov. Pacio is really a Strawweight, but ranked here for lack of another weight class ranking; he probably can't amass enough points to get to the top easily.

Long-shot/wild card: Henry Cejudo. Yes we're out of ideas. This is probably the least likely weight class between FW/BW/FL for Cejudo to make his unlikely comeback in.

Vegas thinks: Moreno, Figueiredo, Askarov. Interesting that they include Askarov, too. So pretty close to how ours would look if we only listed UFC fighters.

 

Well that's it...see you in 2023 for a recap!

2022: January 1st's Solid Heavyweight Boxing lineup: Sanchez vs. Hammer, Ortiz vs. Martin, and 3 more HW bouts

I don't recall January 1st being a big day for boxing...ever? And the month of January has been dreary for heavyweight boxing for some time now. For example, looking through our database for recent years, the month of January had exactly one significant HW bout this January (2021), and for the previous years the figures were: 1, 4, 3, 7, 11, 3, 8, 6, 9, 7, and 13. That's going back to 2010. The average month sees about 10 significant fights per month over this time period and January has matched that twice out of the last 12 years.

The total number of notable fights might not exceed 10 this January but certainly January 1st, as a particular day, will have a lot to offer and will pretty much redeem the entire month. There are five scheduled heavyweight bouts on New Year's Day so, even if 2022 isn't a great boxing year, it will at least kick off on a good note. Here's the rundown:

• #6 Frank Sanchez (19-0-0) vs. #155 Christian Hammer (26-8-0)
  Originally it was #100 Carlos Negron facing Sanchez, but Hammer stepped in on very short notice which might (or might not) make this fight more interesting than it seemed previously. The problem with Hammer, though, is that he hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in three years since giving Michael Wallisch his first loss. Since then he's lost to Luis Ortiz, Tony Yoka, and Hughie Fury, with all three losses being essentially shutouts on the scorecards. Hammer retired with a bicep injury vs. Fury, but he was on his way to a 119-109 style decision loss. Sanchez is coming off a strong showing against Efe Ajagba and seems hungry to make quick progress, which makes us think a 100-90 card is in the works. If Hammer had been showing any signs of life we'd keep the prospect of an upset open, but these are fighters going in different directions in terms of their motivation.
  
  
• #58 Luis Ortiz (32-2-0) vs. #80 Charles Martin (28-2-1)
  This is the headliner, but in our rankings Ortiz has slumped due to inactivity and Martin has just stayed inside the top 100. Ortiz has only lost to Deontay Wilder, which is nothing to be ashamed of, but his quality wins are few and far between, especially now. You have to go back to March of 2019 where he beat Christian Hammer—now on the card vs. Frank Sanchez—to find a solid win, after which he suffered the 2nd Wilder KO. Since then he KO'ed Alexander Flores in the first round more than a year ago. At Ortiz's age—officially 42 but some believe him to be much older—there's always the question of when he starts to really slow down. Martin is younger by at least 7 years and is most famous for losing to Anthony Joshua in 2016. After that he lost a close fight to Adam Kownacki and only recently made a comeback with a solid win over Gerald Washington (also on this card). With Ortiz so inactive and Martin coming off his best win in at least 5 years, we see Martin as a live underdog, the result depending on whether Ortiz is still sharp at 42+. In terms of boxing skill there's no comparison, which is why Ortiz is about a 4 to 1 favorite.
  
  
• #59 Jonathan Rice (14-6-1) vs. #63 Michael Polite Coffie (12-1-0)
  This fight's a rematch of an upset, and you can tell by their records who upset who. Last July 31st Rice didn't take the journeyman fall, instead controlling the fight and winning in a 5th round stoppage over the previously unbeaten Coffie. Coffie had prepared for Gerald Washington (these same names keep popping up) until a week before and as we pointed out in the Hammer vs. Sanchez preview, substitutions often equals chaos. Rice's career until that point had been highlighted by a win over Rodney Hernandez and subsequent bigger paydays vs. Tony Yoka, Arslanbek Makmudov, Demsey McKean, and Efe Ajagba, all undefeated at the time. This certainly gave the impression that he was cashing in to be record-building fodder for stay-busy fights. But he went the distance with Yoka and Ajagba, and lasted until the 10th with McKean in a fairly close contest. Meanwhile Coffie's résumé is pretty thin: recent stoppage wins over Joey Abell and Darmani Rock were impressive, but he's clearly inexperienced after just 13 fights following a career in the Marines. Seeing how Rice dominated the first fight makes him the favorite to repeat it. It probably won't be as easy this time as Coffie will prepare for Rice and work to correct his mistakes from the first go-around, but he might lack the boxing experience to solve problems this quickly. Look for the fight to go the distance this time, but Rice to end up on top again. Coffie needs this one to keep his career going, but we've seen this before with johnny-come-latelies to the sport—it usually doesn't end well. Both fighters stand 6-5 so it's a battle of giants like many heavyweight bouts these days.
  
  
• #67 Ali Demirezen (14-1-0) vs. #126 Gerald Washington (20-4-1)
  Demirezen's sole loss was a wide UD to Efe Ajagba where he wasn't able to mount much of an attack against Ajagba's 85" reach. Washington isn't quite as imposing but still will have a bit of height and reach advantage. Demirezen, who had a solid Olympic-level amateur career, responded reasonably well to his loss with three wins including solid journeyman Kamil Sokolowski but Washington will be the Turk's toughest fight since his loss. Washington's up and down career saw him lose 3 out of 4 fights at one point—to Deontay Wilder, a PED-powered Jarell Miller, and Adam Kownacki—before he revived his career with an 8th round KO of Robert Helenius in July, 2019. His followup didn't go as well and he lost to Charles Martin vs. 6th round TKO last year. Washington is the wild card here, and Demirezen's methodical (some would say boring) style probably doesn't allow much room for an upset. Demirezen's a 2 to 1 favorite and we think it should be a bit wider. Demirezen doesn't look like he should be very good and he wins ugly but he wins, unless clearly outclassed. Can Washington rise to that challenge?
  
  
• #38 Victor Faust (8-0-0) vs. #154 Iago Kiladze (27-5-1)
  We normally use fighters real names but we're calling Victor Vykhryst by his nickname Victor Faust for obvious reasons (you try typing that one correctly). He's 8-0 with 6 KOs and taking on Iago Kiladze, whose best result is a split draw against the previously unblemished Robert Alfonso. Just previous to that he'd lost to Adam Kownacki, Michael Hunter, and Joe Joyce, so he's another example of a journeyman-in-the-works who upset the cart once and is getting good work in return. He lost to Efe Ajagba following the Alfonso bout, getting KOed in the middle rounds as he did in his other losses, but he had his most famous moment in that fight with a flash knockdown of Ajagba in the third round. Don't look for this one to go the distance; if Faust is going to live up to his billing as the next great Ukrainian heavyweight post-Klitschko brothers then we'll see a 4th or 5th round stoppage in the 8-round bout. But Kiladze has shown he can throw a few surprises into the mix here and there, so this will be some good early work for Faust's burgeoning career.

Between college football bowl games and some good basketball too, New Year's Day has a pretty full sports schedule so this card is probably a tough sell on Fox Sports PPV, but these are some pretty good fights. Back in the day this kind of stuff would be on free TV but alas, those days are gone and now every bout is for sale. Cards like this might help promote the sport back to its glory days if it were on regular cable but it seems like that ship has sailed. It is quite a bit cheaper than most fights ($39.99) but that's still quite a lot for non-title fights.

On a positive note, it's good to several ranked heavyweights willing to mix it up on the same card—that's the first step to getting the fans back.

Solid heavyweight boxing cards kick off December and January: Hunter, Arias, Sanchez, Ortiz in action

Good heavyweight fights have been few and far between for...about as long as you want to go back in this century. Every once in a while though the stars align and ranked contenders go against their inclinations and fight each other, and sometimes this occurs multiple times on a single card. Such is the case in the TrillerVerz IV card on Thursday, December 2, and the Fox Sports PPV event on January 1st, 2022.

The Triller event isn't quite as stacked but considering it's happening tomorrow it's safe to say its slate of fights is more likely to remain stable. Its fights include Michael Hunter vs. Jerry Forrest, George Arias vs. Cassius Chaney, and Mike Balogun vs. Trey Lippe

• #13 Michael Hunter (20-1-1) vs. #88 Jerry Forrest (26-4-1)
  Hunter has slipped out of the top ten due to inactivity but remains a top contender boasting a 6-1-1 record in significant fights; his best win is over current #28 Martin Bakole and he fought #7 Alex Povetkin to a draw. His sole loss is to #2 Oleksandr Usyk in a cruiserweight bout.
  
  Forrest was declining after losses to Jermaine Franklin and Carlos Takam but managed a draw against #50 Zhilei Zhang which propelled him back into the top 100. So ironically both fighters are best known for their performance in a fight that ended in a draw. Let's hope this one doesn't end in a draw.
  
  The two fighters have met before, in June of 2014 where Hunter took a unanimous 80-72 decision over 8 rounds. It was Hunter's fifth pro fight, just before he dropped down to campaign at Cruiserweight for a few years prior to his heavyweight return in 2018. Following that loss Forrest won 18 fights in a row against low-level competition, lost twice more, and then had the draw with Zhang. Needless to say, Hunter is a huge favorite to repeat his performance against Forrest.
  
  
• #30 George Arias (16-0-0) vs. #43 Cassius Chaney (21-0-0)
  This is a big fight—someone's "O" has got to go. Neither fighter has faced a very impressive slate however, so this will be a proving ground for both. Arias has a couple of rated wins over Keith Barr and Joe Caudle, while Chaney has also defeated Caudle along with three other rated wins including Shawndell Winters and Nick Jones who are still ranked. The winner will move closer to contender status near the top 20.
  
  
• #49 Mike Balogun (17-0-0) vs. #186 Trey Lippe (18-0-0)
  Another battle of undefeated fighters, but this one is a bit less impactful. In their combined 35 fights they have 4 noteable wins, with Balogun beating Mike Bissett and Keith Barr, and Lippe besting Richard Dawson and Ty Cobb. I'm sure you know all four of those guys. Lippe doesn't have a solid win in nearly five years where he's fought just 5 times, which gives the advantage to Balogun. Balogun needs a win to keep his momentum going while Lippe needs one to revive his stalled career. Balogun is more famous as an ex-college football player than a boxer, while Lippe is most famous for being one of Tommy Morrison's sons. This fight is a small step toward one of them making his name in the ring.

The Fox PPV has five fights all between rated fighters, with three intra-top 100 contests scheduled:

• #6 Frank Sanchez (19-0-0) vs. #100 Carlos Negron (25-3-0)
• #58 Luis Ortiz (32-2-0) vs. #80 Charles Martin (28-2-1)
• #59 Jonathan Rice (14-6-1) vs. #63 Michael Polite Coffie (12-1-0)
• #38 Victor Faust Vykhryst (8-0-0) vs. #154 Iago Kiladze (27-5-1)
• #67 Ali Demirezen (14-1-0) vs. #126 Gerald Washington (20-4-1)

We'll preview those fights later in the month in case more fights are added (or more likely, cancelled).